WWRP
Working Group on Nowcasting Research
Slobodan Nickovic, Tom Keenan, Steve Goodman, Alan Seed, Thomas Haiden,
Jenny Sun, Ted Nakazawa, Marianne Koenig, Jian Jie Wang, Augusto Pereira, Peter
WWRP
Li, Paul Joe and Jim Wilson
Outline
–What is Nowcasting?
–WGNR Mandate
–WGNR Activities
WHAT IS NOWCASTING
Originally defined by Browning for the
1st Nowcasting Conference in 1981 as:
Nowcasting definition – description of the current state of the
weather in detail and the prediction of changes in a few hours
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0-6 hr forecasting by any method
spatial scale of no more than a few kilometers
(1-3 km) with frequent updates (5-10 min)
Heavy emphasis on observations
It is much more than that!
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Nowcasts are precise in weather element, time and
space!
“Call to Action!”
Extreme events!
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Highly application or user dependent!
WHY NOWCASTING?
Only on the nowcasting time and space scale is
there sufficient forecast skill that people will take
actions to save life, property, and human
inconvenience .
Transportation
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Construction
Sporting events
Aviation
Concerts
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Convective weather are traditional
operational application of nowcasting.
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Aviation deicing application needs
precipitation type, intensity to
resolution of minutes and
kilometers.
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The nature of the turbulence is
critical!
Ski Jump experiences ~7-8 min fluctuations of
the up/down slope wind
Upslope
2 hour of
1 second
data
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Transition
from
drainage to
upslope
Drainage
Bottom
Top
Graph courtesy of
Andrew Teakles
Advance and Understanding
the Science
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Technology Transfer
Capacity Build
Promote Nowcasting
Among WMO Members
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Forecast Demonstration Projects
•Verification
• Sydney 2000, Beijing 2008
•Societal
Research Development Projects
Impacts
• Beijing 2008, SNOW-V10
•Firm Target
• Sochi 2014, Rio 2016
development
Developing Country Forecast Demonstration Project
• 1:1, Mentoring, Legacy of Research Capacity
• Lake Victoria, SE Asia
Training
• S2K, Brasilia, South Africa, Micronesia
• B08, V10
Workshops
• Heuristic Nowcasting, NWP for Nowcasting
• Observations for Nowcasting
Symposia
• WSN05, WSN09, WSN12
Can a standard thermometer be
used for nowcasting?
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Inversion is ~here.
HMP45C sees it
higher on ascent and
lower on descent
HMP45C
Standard Network
Thermometer
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Dale Barker, Stephane Belair, Volker Wulfmeyer; Slobodan Nickovic (WMO),
Jeanette Onvlee, Mathias Rotach, Jimy Dudhia, Peter Steinle, Hui Yu, Tiziana
Paccagnella, Kazuo Saito
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Activities WG-MWFR
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Help set up/involvement in RDP’s/FDP’s (COPS, FROST14, …)
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Promote mesoscale research cooperation / proposals on:
 Mesoscale modelling aspects: e.g. WGNE grey zone project
 Mesoscale DA experimentation: e.g. HYMEX data assimilation
and predictability testbed
 LAM EPS experimentation
 Urban meteorology: e.g. TOMACS campaign
 Verification: e.g. JWGFVR ICP2 project
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Organize dedicated workshops on specific topics
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Other activities on:
 consider/promote worldwide standards for (routine) mesoscale
model quality assessment
 inventory of available mesoscale training material/activities, gaps
therein
NWP in Nowcasting workshop, 24-26 October 2011
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Ongoing and possible future
RDP/FDP’s
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Ongoing:
 COPS: convective orographic precipitation study (nearly completed,
final workshop spring 2012)
 FROST-14: high-resolution deterministic and probabilistic
forecasting and nowcasting in support of Sochi 2014 Winter
Olympics
 Participation in HYMEX TTM4: data assimilation and predictability
Possible future RDP’s:
 TOMACS: Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convective Study: attempt to
engage international community in an RDP
 Tropical cyclone modelling
NWP in Nowcasting workshop, 24-26 October 2011
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The Olympic Sochi Testbed
(FROST-2014)
Main objectives:
Improve and exploit:
• Nowcasting techniques
• High-resolution analyses
and forecasts for complex
terrain/winter conditions
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• Regional and convectionpermitting EPS
Improve understanding of
physics of high impact
weather phenomena in the
region;
Deliver forecasts in real time
to Olympic forecasters and
decision makers and quantify
benefits of forecast
improvement
TOMACS: Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study:
high density observation/modelling campaign over Tokyo
氷
雷晶
降水コア
ひょう
あられ
Polarmetric C band
Doppler radar （MRI
Doppler
Lidar
2D scan
X band radar
Surface rain gauge
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GPS receiver
3D scan
X band radar
Lightning
Detection
sondes
Moist air
MW
radiometer
Collaboration with MILT,
NIED, NICT, OU, ..
約10km
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/tmp/PreviewPasteboardItems/1
10911_TTM4a_Testbed_Wulfm
eyer_Summary (dragged).pdf
Why this workshop?
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Mesoscale models moving into the nowcasting range:
• Rapid update cycling
• Assimilation of relevant spatially and temporally dense
observations which are traditionally important to nowcasting (radar!)
• High-resolution modelling
• Convection-permitting ensembles under development
 Option for ensemble nowcasting?
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… but demands from nowcasting may be different from
short-range forecasting
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To what extent is mesoscale NWP presently capable of
meeting the needs of nowcasting, either directly or
indirectly?
Get nowcasting and mesoscale NWP communities
together to define the way forward (set up research
agenda)
•
NWP in Nowcasting workshop, 24-26 October 2011
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Expected outcome:
 Overview of state-of-the-art of present use of
mesoscale NWP in support of nowcasting, directly
and indirectly
 Identify the requirements of nowcasting on
mesoscale NWP
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 Inventory of possible ways forward to enhance the
capability of mesoscale NWP to support nowcasting,
and associated research
 Description of the main outcomes in a BAMS paper?
 Proposals for joint research activities to further the
field?
NWP in Nowcasting workshop, 24-26 October 2011
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Workshop Expectations
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Proposals to advance the
science of NWP for Nowcasting
Hi resolution (radar) data
assimilation RDP/FDP
observations
 Radar data assimilation RDP