Accelerating Change:
Developing Tomorrow’s Medical Toolkit
John Smart, President, ASF
Medicine Meets Virtual Reality 14
Jan 2006 ◆ Long Beach, CA
Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html
Presentation Outline
1. Introduction
2. One Assumption
3. Two Processes of Change
4. Three Foresight Studies
5. Four Foresight Skills
6. Five Foresight Domains
7. Global Trends
8. Twenty Year Scenarios
9. Developing Tomorrow’s Medical Toolkit
10. Group Discussion
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
1. Introduction
Seeing the Extraordinary Present
“There has never been a time more
pregnant with possibilities.”
- Gail Carr Feldman
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
Carpe Diem
"In a time of change, it is learners who
inherit the future. The learned find
themselves well equipped to live in a world
that no longer exists." — Eric Hoffer
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"Twenty years from now you will be
more disappointed by the things you
did not do than those you did do. So
throw off the bowlines. Sail away from
the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds
in your sails. Explore. Dream.
Discover. Give yourself away to the
sea of life." — Mark Twain
© 2006 Accelerating.org
We Have Two Options:
Future Shock or Future Shaping
“We need a pragmatic optimism, a cando, change-aware attitude. A balance
between innovation and preservation.
Honest dialogs on persistent problems,
tolerance of imperfect solutions. The
ability to avoid both doomsaying and
paralyzing adherence to the status quo.”
― David Brin
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation
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ASF (Accelerating.org) is a nonprofit community of 3,100
scientists, technologists, entrepreneurs, administrators,
educators, analysts, humanists, and systems theorists
discussing and dissecting accelerating change.
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We practice “developmental future studies,” that is, we seek to
discover a set of persistent factors, stable trends, convergent
capacities, and highly probable scenarios for our common future,
and to use this information now to improve our daily evolutionary
choices.
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Specifically, these include accelerating intelligence, immunity,
and interdependence in our global sociotechnological systems,
increasing technological autonomy, and the increasing intimacy
of the human-machine, physical-digital interface.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
2. One Assumption:
An Accelerating, Infopomorphic Universe
Systems Theory
Systems Theorists Make Things Simple
(sometimes too simple!)
"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."
— Albert Einstein
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
From the Big Bang to Complex Stars:
“The Decelerating Phase” of Universal ED
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From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology:
The “Accelerating Phase” of Universal ED
Carl Sagan’s
“Cosmic
Calendar”
(Dragons of
Eden, 1977)
Each month is
roughly 1
billion years.
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
A U-Shaped Curve of Change
Big Bang Singularity
50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds
50 yrs ago: Machina silico
100,000 yrs: Matter
100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap.
1B yrs: Protogalaxies
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Developmental Singularity?
8B yrs: Earth
© 2006 Accelerating.org
The MESTI Universe
Matter, Energy, Space, Time  Information
Increasingly Understood
 Poorly Known
MEST Compression/Density/Efficiency drives
accelerating change.
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Physics of a “MESTI” Universe
Physical Driver:
 MEST Compression/Efficiency/Density
Emergent Properties:
 Information Intelligence (World Models)
 Information Interdepence (Ethics)
 Information Immunity (Resiliency)
 Information Incompleteness (Search)
An Interesting Speculation in Information Theory:
Entropy = Negentropy
Universal Energy Potential is Conserved.
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” (Φ):
A Universal Moore’s Law Curve
Free Energy Rate Density
Substrate
Ф
(ergs/second/gram)
time
Galaxies
Stars
Planets (Early)
Plants
Animals/Genetics
Brains (Human)
Culture (Human)
Int. Comb. Engines
Jets
Pentium Chips
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0.5
2 (counterintuitive)
75
900
20,000(10^4)
150,000(10^5)
500,000(10^5)
(10^6)
(10^8)
(10^11)
Source: Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001
© 2006 Accelerating.org
The Infopomorphic Paradigm
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The universe is a physical-computational system.
We exist for information theoretic reasons.
We’re here to create, plan, manage, and discover.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Cosmic Embryogenesis
(in Three Easy Steps)
Geosphere/Geogenesis
(Chemical Substrate)
Biosphere/Biogenesis
(Biological-Genetic Substrate)
Noosphere/Noogenesis
(Memetic-Technologic Substrate)
Pierre Teilhard de Chardin
(1881-1955)
Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist,
Developmental Systems Theorist
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Le Phénomène Humain, 1955
© 2006 Accelerating.org
De Chardin on Acceleration:
Technological “Cephalization” of Earth
"No one can deny that
a network (a world network) of
economic and psychic
affiliations is being woven at
ever increasing speed
which envelops and
constantly penetrates more
deeply within each of us. With
every day that passes it
becomes a little more
impossible for us to act or
think otherwise than
collectively."
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“Finite Sphericity + Acceleration =
Phase Transition”
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Stock on ‘Metahumanity’:
The Emerging Human Machine Superorganism
Biologist William Wheeler, 1937: Termites, bees, and other social animals
are “superorganisms.” They increasingly can’t be understood apart from
the structures their genetics compel them to construct.
Developmental endpoint: an integrated cell/organism/supercolony.
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Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global Superorganism, 1994
© 2006 Accelerating.org
3. Two Processes of Change:
Evolution and Development
Replication & Variation
“Natural Selection”
Adaptive Radiation
Chaos, Contingency
Pseudo-Random Search
Strange Attractors
Evolution
Complex Environmental Interaction
The Left and Right Hands of
“Evolutionary Development”
Left Hand
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New Computat’l Phase Space Opening
Selection & Convergence
“Convergent Selection”
Emergence,Global Optima
MEST-Compression
Standard Attractors
Development
Right Hand
Well-Explored Phase Space Optimization
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Evolution vs. Development
“The Twin’s Thumbprints”
Consider two identical twins:
Thumbprints
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Brain wiring
Evolution drives almost all the unique local patterns.
Development creates the predictable global patterns.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Marbles, Landscapes, and Basins
(Complex Systems, Evolution, & Development)
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The marbles (systems) roll around on the landscape, each
taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths
predictably converge (development) on low points (MEST
compression), the “attractors” at the bottom of each basin.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
How Many Eyes Are
Developmentally Optimal?
Evolution tried this experiment.
Development calculated an operational optimum.
Some reptiles (e.g. Xantusia vigilis, and certain skinks)
still have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye.
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
How Many Wheels are Developmentally Optimal on
an Automobile?
Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device.
Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity.
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
Evolution and Development:
Two Universal Systems Processes
Evolution
Development
Chance
Randomness
Variety/Many
Possibilities
Uniqueness
Uncertainty
Accident
Bottom-up
Divergent
Differentiation
Necessity
Determinism
Unity/One
Constraints
Sameness
Predictability
Design (self-organized or other)
Top-Down
Convergent
Integration
Each are pairs of a fundamental dichotomy, polar opposites, conflicting
models for understanding universal change. The easy observation is that
both processes have explanatory value in different contexts.
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The deeper question is when, where, and how they interrelate.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Two Political Polarities:
Innovation/Discovery vs. Mgmt/Sustainability
Evo-Devo Theory Brings Process Balance to
Political Dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability
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Developmental sustainability without generativity creates
sterility, clonality, overdetermination, adaptive
weakness (Maoism).
Evolutionary generativity (innovation) without
sustainability creates chaos, entropy, a destruction that
is not naturally recycling/creative (Anarchocapitalism).
© 2006 Accelerating.org
4. Three Foresight Studies:
Futures, Development, and Acceleration
Humans are Prediction Systems
“Our brain is structured for constant forecasting.”
Jeff Hawkins,
Inventor, PalmPilot,
CTO, Palm Computing
Founder, Redwood Neurosciences Institute
Author, On Intelligence: How a New
Understanding of the Brain will Lead to the
Creation of Truly Intelligent Machines, 2004
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The Prediction Wall and
The Prediction Crystal Ball
What does hindsight tell us
about prediction?
The Year 2000 was the
most intensive long range
prediction effort of its time,
done at the height of the
forecasting/ operations
research/ cybernetics/
think tank (RAND) driven/
“instrumental rationality”
era of Futures Studies.
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(Kahn & Wiener, 1967).
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Three Essential Foresight Studies:
Futures, Development, and Acceleration
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Futures Studies
– “Possible” change (scenarios, alternatives)
Development Studies
– “Irreversible” change (emergences, phase
changes)
Acceleration Studies
– “Accelerating” change (exponential growth,
positive feedback, self-catalyzing,
autonomous)
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Brief History of Futures Studies
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1902, H.G. Wells, Anticipations
1904, Henry Adams, A Law of Acceleration
1945, Project RAND (RAND Corp.)
1946, Stanford Research Institute (SRI International)
1962, Arthur C. Clarke, Profiles of the Future
1967, World Future Society, Institute for the Future
1970, Alvin Toffler, Future Shock
1974, University of Houston, Studies of the Future M.S.
1977, Carl Sagan, Dragons of Eden
1986, Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation,
1995, Tamkang U, Center for Futures Studies
1999, Ray Kurzweil, Age of Spiritual Machines
2002, Acceleration Studies Foundation
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Four Types of Futures Studies
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Exploratory (Speculative Literature, Art)
Consensus-Driven (Political, Trade Organizations)
Agenda-Driven (Institutional, Strategic Plans)
Research-Predictive (Stable Developmental Trends)
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The last is the critical one for acceleration studies and
development studies
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It is also the only one generating falsifiable hypotheses
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Accelerating and increasingly efficient, autonomous,
miniaturized, and localized computation is apparently a
fundamental meta-stable universal developmental trend.
Or not. That is a key hypothesis we seek to address.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Warning: Never Trust a Single Futurist (Including Me)
Never Make Big Decisions Without Using a Futures Network
Each of us sees only a piece of the elephant and is
easily wrong.
A multi-biased network gives you a wider and
deeper map of the possibility space. This will
make you more adaptive, and may make you
more foresighted.
Modern culture spends a lot of time in the past and
present, but very little thinking about personal,
organizational, and global futures.
Learn to fight this increasingly costly bias.
Lesson: Develop your network, map the controversies,
have tolerance for ambiguity, seek good data, notice weak
signals, optimize today but expect emergence. Be skeptical.
Consult the crowd but make your own decisions.
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“You can’t get an unbiased education, so
the next best thing is a multi-biased one.”
 Buckminster Fuller
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Where are the U.S. College Courses in Foresight Development?
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Tamkang University
27,000 undergrads
Top-ranked private
university in Taiwan
Like history and
current affairs, futures
studies (15 courses to
choose from) have
been a general
education requirement
since 1995.
Why not here?
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Graduate Foresight Programs:
Futures Studies, STS, Roadmapping
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Futures Studies (two U.S. graduate programs)
Science and Technology Studies (30+ U.S. programs)
Tech Roadmapping (five U.S. programs. First PhD
under Mike Radnor at Northwestern in 1998).
Artificial Life, Complexity Science,
Systems Science, Simulation Learning:
All still too early for foresight specializations.
Tech roadmapping is a process presently being used for
major capital investment in industry (e.g. ITRS, which
began as NTRS only in 1992).
Tech Roadmapping is the closest yet to
Development and Acceleration Studies.
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
Human Development Studies:
Sequential Growth Stages
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Stages are probability functions, not discrete “levels” of development. They are
sequential and directional, but you can regress with abnormal trauma or deterioration.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Gilligan’s Stages
of Female Moral Development
Stage
Sample Question:
Is abortion a woman’s right?
Universal Care
“Yes, sometimes” (birth
defects, etc.)
(integral, weighted, plural)
(culture, conformity, code)
“No” (against dominant
culture/code/convention)
Selfish
“Yes” (my body, my choice)
Care
(ego, individual)
Stages are probabilities, but they are sequential and directional.
This is reasonably good research.
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Carol Gilligan
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Debser’s Stages of Cultural Development
Stage
Sample Belief System
Integral
“Many things change the world.”
Rational
“Science/work changes the world.”
Mythic
“Other’s power changes the world.”
Magic
“My wishes change the world.”
Archaic
“Nothing changes the world.”
Some stage conceptions have less evidence at present, but
remain good candidates for further research.
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Eugene Debser
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Maslow’s Hierarchy of Self-Needs Development
Smart’s Hierarchy of Technoeconomic Development
Biological Learning Stages
Self-transcendence
(Religion & Death)
Technological Learning Stages
Biotranscension Society
Digital Twin IT Society
/ Self-expression
Valuecosm IT Society
/ Self-identity
/ Property
Network IT Society
Manufacturing Society
Agricultural Society
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
Developmental Windows
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In 2005, India is seeing a grassroots
movement to get schools to teach English in
first grade (vs. fourth grade). Three to six is a
developmental window for effortless language
acquisition. Mandarin or Hindi for your child?
Zerotothree.org
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What will tomorrow’s for-profit daycare chains be like?
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Something Curious Is Going On
Unexplained.
(Don’t look for this in your physics or information theory texts…)
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
Henry Adams, 1909:
The First “Singularity Theorist”
The final Ethereal
Phase would last
only about four
years, and
thereafter "bring
Thought to the
limit of its
possibilities."
Wild speculation
or computational
reality?
Still too early to
tell, at present.
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies: Our Historical
Understanding of Accelerating Change
In 1904, we seemed nearly ready
to see intrinsically accelerating
progress. Then came mechanized
warfare (WW I, 1914-18, WW II,
1939-45), Communist oppression
(60 million deaths). 20th century
political deaths of 170+ million
showed the limitations of humanengineered accelerating progress models.
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Today the idea of accelerating progress remains in the
cultural minority, even in first world populations. It is viewed
with interest but also deep suspicion by a populace
traumatized by technological extremes, global divides, and
economic fluctuation.
Zbigniew Brzezinski, Out of Control, 1993
© 2006 Accelerating.org
The Technological Singularity Hypothesis
Each unique physicalcomputational substrate
appears to have its own
“capability curve.”
The information inherent in
these substrates is apparently
not made obsolete, but is
instead incorporated into the
developmental architecture of
the next emergent system.
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
The Developmental Spiral
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Homo Habilis Age
Homo Sapiens Age
Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age
Agricultural Age
Empires Age
Scientific Age
Industrial Age
Information Age
Symbiotic Age
Autonomy Age
Tech Singularity
2,000,000 yrs ago
100,000 yrs
40,000 yrs
7,000 yrs
2,500 yrs
380 yrs (1500-1770)
180 yrs (1770-1950)
70 yrs (1950-2020)
30 yrs (2020-2050)
10 yrs (2050-2060)
≈ 2060
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Four Pre-Singularity Subcycles?
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A 30-year cycle, from 1990-2020
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A 20-year cycle, from 2020-2040
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CUI personality capture (weak uploading),
Mature Self-Reconfig./Evolutionary Computing.
2050: Era of Strong Autonomy
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CUI network, Biotech, not bio-augmentation,
Adaptive Robots, Peace/Justice Crusades.
A 10-year cycle, from 2040-2050
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1st gen "stupid net "/early IA, weak nano, 2nd
gen Robots, early Ev Comp. World security begins.
Progressively shorter 5-, 2-, 1-year tech cycles,
each more autocatalytic, seamless, human-centric.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Macrohistorical Singularity Books
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The Evolutionary Trajectory, 1998
Trees of Evolution, 2000
Singularity 2130 ±20 years
Singularity 2080 ±30 years
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Macrohistorical Singularity Books
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New York
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Why Stock Markets Crash, 2003
The Singularity is Near, 2005
Singularity 2050 ±10 years
Singularity 2050 ±20 years
© 2006 Accelerating.org
“Unreasonable” Effectiveness and Efficiency of
Science and the Microcosm: Wigner and Mead
The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the
Natural Sciences, Nobel Laureate Eugene Wigner, 1960
After Wigner and Freeman Dyson’s work in 1951, on symmetries
and simple universalities in mathematical physics.
F=ma
F=-(Gm1m2)/r2
E=mc2
W=(1/2mv2)
Commentary on the “Unreasonable Efficiency of Physics
in the Microcosm,” VLSI Pioneer Carver Mead, c. 1980.
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In 1968, Mead predicted we would create
much smaller (to 0.15 micron) multi-million
chip transistors that would run far faster and
more efficiently. He later generalized this
observation to a number of other devices.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
The NBIC Report and Conferences
Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance:
Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive Science
Edited by Mike Roco and William Sims Bainbridge,
National Science Foundation, 2002 (NSF/DoC Sponsored Report)
www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
“NBICS”: 5 Choices for Strategic Technological
Development
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Nanotech (micro and nanoscale technology)
Biotech (biotechnology, health care)
Infotech (computing and comm. technology)
Cognotech (brain sciences, human factors)
Sociotech (remaining technology applications)
Nanotech and Infotech drive the other accelerations, and follow
unique MEST-efficiency developmental dynamics.
It is a common trap to spend excessive R&D, mfg, marketing funds on
too-early technology in any NBICS category. Infotech examples:
A.I., multimedia, internet, wireless, fiber (Global Crossing, 1990’s)
It is almost as common to spend disproportionately on older, less
centrally accelerating technologies.
Every technology has an ideal time and place for innovation and
diffusion.
Be aware of both first and second mover advantages.© 2006 Accelerating.org
Example: Holey Optical Fibers
Lasers today can made cheaply only in some
areas of the EM spectrum, not including, for
example, UV laser light for cancer detection
and tissue analysis. It was discovered in 2004
that a hollow optical fiber filled with hydrogen
gas, a device known as a "photonic crystal,"
can convert cheap laser light to the
wavelengths previously unavailable.
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Above: SEM image of a photonic crystal fiber. Note periodic
array of air holes. The central defect (missing hole in the middle)
acts as the fiber's core. The fiber is about 40 microns across.
This conversion system is a million times (106) more energy
efficient than all previous converters. These are the kinds of
jaw-dropping efficiency advances that continue to drive the
nano and ICT revolutions.
Such advances are due even more to human discovery (in
physical microspace) than to human creativity, which is why
they have accelerated throughout the 20th century, even as we
remain uncertain exactly why they continue to occur. © 2006 Accelerating.org
Tech Roadmappers Carefully Watch
Efficiency/Cost/Capacity Curves!
Toshiba Li-Ion Nanobattery
80% recharge in 60 seconds
99% duty after 1,000 cycles
Reliable at temp extremes
Cost competitive
What Might This Enable?
New consumer wearable
and mobile electronics
 Military apps
 Plug-in hybrids at home and
filling stations (“90% of an
electric vehicle economy”)
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“The future’s already here. It’s just not
evenly distributed yet.” ― William Gibson
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
An Electric Future: Natural Gas, Nanobatteries, and
Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Natural gas, already 20% of US energy consumption,
is the fastest growing and most efficient component.
Nanobatteries recharge 80% in 60 seconds,
keep 99% of their duty after 1,000 cycles.
180+ mpg Prius.
34 miles on battery only.
Nanobatteries can make electric car recharging as fast as gas tank
filling, and tomorrow's power grids will be much more decentralized
than today's gasoline stations, supporting even greater city densities.
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“Driving Toward an Electric Future,” John Smart, 2006
© 2006 Accelerating.org
The Future of High Density Urban Transport:
Underground Automated Highway Systems
May be significantly cheaper than air taxi transport. TBMs growing
exponentially. No visual blight, safe, reclaim surface real estate. 10X
present capacity under our cities. Requires IV’s and ZEV’s (2025+)
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“Underground Automated Highway Systems: A 2030 Scenario,” John Smart, 2005
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Understanding the Lever of Nano and ICT
"Give me a lever, a fulcrum,
and place to stand and I
will move the world."
Archimedes of Syracuse
(287-212 BC), quoted by
Pappus of Alexandria,
Synagoge, c. 340 AD
“The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of
Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative
democracy], moves the world.” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814)
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The lever of accelerating information and communications
technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics
(in inner space) increasingly moves the world.
(Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…)
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Hurricane Control:
New DoD/NASA/NOAA Security Mission?
Hurricane Ivan: $11B in property
damage. 11 named storms in 10
months in 2004, 7 caused
damage in U.S.
NOAA expects decades of
hurricane hyperactivity.
Ross Hoffman, use Solar Powered Satellites (SPS’s).
In 1968, Peter Glaser, microwave-relay SPS’s for
power on earth, tuned away from climate. These would
be tuned to water vapor (like microwave oven). Low
pressure centers disruptible by atmospheric heating.
Very sensitive to hi pressure side steering. Cyclones,
monsoons, blizzards, possibly even tornados.
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Research: Russian mylar mirrors, 1993, 1999 (failed).
23 m mirror (above), 5 km light circle on the ground.
Arrays would raise surface temp. several degrees.
“Controlling Hurricanes,” Scientific American, 10.2004
© 2006 Accelerating.org
A Saturation Lesson:
Biology vs. Technology
How S Curves Get Old
Resource limits in a niche
Material
Energetic
Spatial
Temporal
Competitive limits in a niche
Intelligence/Info-Processing
No Known or Historical Limits to Information Acceleration
1. Our special universal structure permits each new computational
substrate to be far more MEST resource-efficient than the last
2. The most complex local systems have no intellectual competition
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Result: No Apparent Limits to the Acceleration of Local Intelligence,
Interdependence, and Immunity in New Substrates Over Time
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Punctuated Equilibrium (in Biology,
Technology, Economics, Politics…)
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Eldredge and Gould
(Biological Species)
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Pareto’s Law (“The 80/20 Rule”)
(income distribution  technology, econ, politics)
Rule of Thumb: 20% Punctuation (Development)
80% Equilibrium (Evolution)
Suggested Reading:
For the 20%: Clay Christiansen, The Innovator's Dilemma
For the 80%: Jason Jennings, Less is More © 2006 Accelerating.org
Two Kinds of Accelerations: Transformational
(Punctuation) vs. Efficiency (Equilibrium)
Business Week’s First Edition, October 1929:
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IBM has an ad for “electric sorting machines.”
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PG&E has an ad announcing natural gas
powered factories in San Francisco.
Could we have predicted that one of these
technologies would continually transform itself
while another would experience accelerating
incremental efficiencies but, on the surface,
appear unchanged?
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
Lesson: Maintaining Equilibrium is Our 80%
Adaptive Strategy
While we try unpredictable evolutionary strategies to
improve our intelligence, interdependence, and
resiliency, these won’t always work. What is certain is
that successful solutions always increase MEST
efficiency, they “do more, better, with less.” Strategies
to capitalize on this:
 Teach efficiency as a civic and business skill.
 Look globally to find resource-efficient solutions.
 Practice competitive intelligence for MEST-efficiency.
 Build a national culture that rewards refinements.
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Examples: Brazil's Urban Bus System. Open Source
Software. Last year’s mature technologies. Recycling.
30 million old cell phones in U.S. homes and businesses.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Quiz
Q: Of the 100 top economies in the world, how
many are multinational corporations and how
many are nation states?
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Quiz
Q: Of the 100 top revenue generating entities in
the world, how many are multinational
corporations and how many are nation states?
76 MNC’s and 24 Nations.
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GBN, Future of Philanthropy, 2005
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Quiz
Q: How many of the lowest net-worth Americans
would it take to approximate Bill Gate’s net
worth? (296 million Americans in 2005)
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Quiz
Q: How many of the lowest net-worth Americans
would it take to approximate Bill Gate’s net
worth?
Roughly 110 million Americans in 1997,
when his net worth was $40 billion. At $30
billion presently (2005), Mr. Gates ranks
roughly as the 60th largest country, and the
55th largest business. When MSFT went
public in 1986, Bill was worth $230 million.
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NYU economist Edward Wolff (See also Top Heavy, 2002)
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Quiz
Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and
launch one new product every _________?
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Quiz
Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and
launch one new product every _________?
Three minutes for Disney.
Twenty minutes for Sony.
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Elizabeth Debold, What is Enlightenment?, March-May 2005
© 2006 Accelerating.org
World Economic
Performance
GDP Per Capita in
Western Europe,
1000 – 1999 A.D.
This curve looks
quite smooth on a
macroscopic scale.
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Notice the “knee of
the curve” occurs at
the industrial
revolution, circa
1850.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Oil Refinery (Multi-Acre Automatic Factory)
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Tyler, Texas, 1964. 360 acres. Run by three operators,
each needing only a high school education.
The 1972 version eliminated the three operators.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Understanding Process Automation
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Perhaps 80% of today's First World
paycheck is paid for by automation
(“tech we tend”).
Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics
(Solow Productivity Paradox,
Theory of Economic Growth)
“7/8 comes from technical progress.”
Human contribution (20%?) to a First
World job is Social Value of Employment
+ Creativity + Education
Developing countries are next in line
(sooner or later).
Continual education and grants
(“taxing the machines”) are the final job
descriptions for all human beings.
Termite Mound
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Automation and Job Disruption
Between 1995 and 2002 the world’s 20 largest economies lost
22 million industrial jobs. This is the shift from a Manufacturing
to a Service Economy.
America lost about 2 million industrial jobs, mostly to China.
 China lost 15 million ind. jobs, mostly to machines. (Fortune)
 Despite the shrinking of America's industrial work force, the
country's overall industrial output increased by 50% since
1992. (Economist)

“Robots are replacing humans or are greatly enhancing human performance in
mining, manufacture, and agriculture. Huge areas of clerical work are also
being automated. Standardized repetitive work is being taken over by
electronic systems. The key to America's continued prosperity depends on
shifting to ever more productive and diverse services. And the good news is
jobs here are often better paying and far more interesting than those on we
knew on the farms and the assembly line.”  Tsvi Bisk
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"The Misery of Manufacturing," The Economist. Sept. 27, 2003
"Worrying About Jobs Isn't Productive," Fortune Magazine. Nov. 10, 2003
“The Future of Making a Living,” Tsvi Bisk, 2003
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Automation Development Always Creates
Massive Economic-Demographic Shifts

Automating of farming pushed people into factories
(1820, 80% of us were farmers, 2% today)
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Automating of factories is pushing people into
service (1947, 35% were in factories, 14% today)
Automating of service is pushing people into service
networks (Network 2.0) (2003, 65% of GDP is service industry)
Automating of networks will push people into
collective/self-expression (symbionts/valuecosm)
Automating individual and group values will push
people into self-actualization (digital twins/
personality capture)
Automating of self-actualization will push people
beyond biology (“transhumanity”)
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Back to the Greek Future



Greece built an enviable empire on the backs
of human slaves.
21C humanity is building an even more
enviable one on the backs of our robotic
servants.
Expect machine emancipation, too.
“The more things change,
the more some things stay the same.”
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
5. Four Foresight Skills:
Innovation, Planning, Profiting, Predicting
Integral (Strategic) Foresight:
Greeks, Pronouns, Skill Sets and Processes
True
What Is
It/Its
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Greeks
Good
What ‘We’ Want
Pronouns
We/He/She/You
Beautiful
What ‘I’ Want
I/Me
Discovery
Universal
Foresight Skill Sets
Management
Social
Processes
Creativity
Individual
Development
Convergence
Statics/Dynamics
Law/Emergence
Evolution
Divergence
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Integral Thinking:
Edward De Bono’s Six Thinking Hats
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It/Its
We/He/She/You
I/Me
White
Yellow
Red
(Facts)
(Social Positive)
(Intuition)
Blue
Black
Green
(Process)
(Social Negative)
(Creative)
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Integral Maps:
Ken Wilber’s Process ‘Quadrants’
Computational Processes
We need foresight in all
quadrants (processes and
management tests).
• All drive change.
• None can be reduced to the others
• There are no others as basic!
Management/Validity Tests
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
Types of Intelligence:
Gardner’s Eight ‘Frames’/ ‘Modules’
Gardner has developed research and
metrics for eight different “frames” or
“modules” of human capacity.
A promising way to look at thinking.
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
Integral Intelligence:
Gardner’s ‘Frames,’ Wilber’s ‘Lines’
I (Innovating)
Intrapersonal/Self-Identity
 Body/Kinesthetic/Health
 Cog-Emot/Needs/Self-Care
 Creativity/Innovating/Vision

It (MEST Mgmt - Profiting)
Visual/Spatial
 Aural/Musical
 MEST/Thing-Care
 Decisionmaking/Adapting

We (Social Mgmt - Planning)
Interpersonal/Social-Identity
 Linguistic/Social-Narrative
 Intimacy/Social-Care
 Moral/Cultural/Social-Relation

Its (Predicting)
Nature/Systems
 Logical/Mathematical
 Object Relatns/Structure-Care
 Discovery/Predictive/Counting

 Meta/Integral/Spiritual (Attractor)
Wilber proposes additional intelligence lines/dimensions on top of Gardner’s. I’ve
mapped nine I see evidence for to his quadrants above. They fit nicely.
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Wilber also proposes all lines follow a developmental vector, that the higher levels of
all lines look spiritual, and that the spiritual line is a convergent intelligence attractor
that continually tries to look meta (above, beyond) all the other lines.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Four Essential Foresight Skills:
Innovating, Planning, Profiting, and Predicting
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Innovating/Creating (I)
– tools and strategies for envisioning and creating personal
preferred futures, science fiction, creative thinking, innovation,
research and development, organizational leadership
Planning/Negotiating (We)
– social networking, collective visioning, consensus building,
risk mgmt (insurance), budgeting, hedging, strategic planning,
enterprise robustness and resilience planning
Profiting/Adapting (It)
– Entrepreneurship, management and decisionmaking (ERP,
CRM, IT, HR, etc.), accounting, measured economic, social,
and environmental benefits
Predicting/Discovering (Its)
– soft to hard: environmental scanning, marketing research,
business intelligence, scenarios, history of prediction,
roadmapping, forecasting methods, metrics, statistical trends,
risk analysis, systems theory and science.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Integral Leadership

The best leaders are passionate about 1) creating
community, and 2) making it easy for users to find
their voice.
Stephen Covey,
The Eighth Habit, 2004
“Find your voice and
inspire others to find theirs.”
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Slow to criticize, ego-minimizing, always striving to be
nice, modeling good behavior, empathic, yet
responsive to communication problems.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
6. Five Foresight Domains:
Individual, Social, National, Planetary, Universal
Integral Foresight Development: Wilber, De Bono,
Gardner, Ichazo, Jenkins, Jung, Myers-Briggs, Smart
 Meta/Integral/Spiritual (Attractor)
 The Peacemaker (9) (Types A and B)
 INTJ, ESFP (Integral Types)
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I (Innovating)
It (MEST Mgmt - Profiting)
Subjective Self
Objective Self
Intrapersonal/Self-Identity
Body/Kinesthetic/Health
Cog-Emotional/Needs/Self-Care
Creativity/Innovating/Visioning
The Individualist (4) (Type A)
The Enthusiast (7) (Type B)
“I” Introverted Orientation
“F” Feeling Function
INFP, INFJ, ISFP
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Visual/Spatial
Aural/Musical
MEST/Thing-Care
Decisionmaking/Adapting (Z & NZ)
The Challenger (8) (Type A)
The Loyalist (6) (Type B)
“J” Judging Process (Think or Feel)
“S” Sensing Function
ESTJ, ISTJ, ESFJ, ISFJ
We (Social Mgmt - Planning)
Its (Predicting)
Subjective System
Objective System
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Interpersonal/Social-Identity
Linguistic/Social-Narrative
Intimacy/Social-Care
Moral/Cultural/Social-Relation
The Achiever (3) (Type A)
The Helper (2) (Type B)
“E” Extroverted Orientation
“N” Intuition Function
ENFP, ENFJ, ENTP, ENTJ
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Nature/Systems
Logical/Mathematical
Object Relations/Structure-Care
Discovery/Predictive/Counting
The Reformer (1) (Type A)
The Investigator (5) (Type B)
“P” Perceiving Process (Intuit or Sense)
“T” Thinking Function
INTP, ESTP, ISTP
Wilber’s Four “Quadrants”
Smart’s Four “Foresight Skills”
Gardner’s Eight “Intelligences”
(Multiple Intelligences)
Wilber’s Nine Additional
“Developmental Lines”
(Smart’s Interpretation)
Ichazo/Naranjo’s (Enneagram)
Nine “Personality Types”,
(Subtyped by Jenkin’s
Type A/Type B Classifiers
Myers-Briggs Sixteen
Personality Types
(Jung’s 4 Mental Functions,
2 Orientations, and 2 Processes).
Fourteen of the sixteen M-B types
weight to one of the four quadrants
by possessing both its function and
its orientation or process. Note that
there are eight M-B “manager”
(the most prevalent), three
“creator” types, three “discoverer”
types, and two “integral” types.
This seems a good reflection of
these skills and prevalence in the
general population.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Integral Systems:
Five Systems of Human Computation (“Dialogs”)

Universal (Technology, Computation) (Attractor)
I (Individual)

Individual
(Vitality, Creativity)
It (National)

We (Social)

Social/Family/Relationship
(Culture, Psychology)
National/Tribal
(Politics, Economics)
Its (Planetary)

Planetary/Species
(Peace, Globalization,
Environment, Science)
Question: Which is unlike the others? The universal system is growing apparently asymptotically
in local capacities, affecting all the others.
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These five systems/dialogs may exist on all Earth-like planets (e.g., be astrobiologically
developmental).
© 2006 Accelerating.org
7. Global Trends in an Accelerating World
Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change

Technological (dominant since 1920-50)
“It’s all about the technology” (what it enables in society, in
itself, how easily it can be developed)

Economic (dominant 1800-1950’s, secondary now)
“It’s all about the money” (who has it, control they gain with it)

Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800’s, tertiary now)
“It’s all about the power” (who has it, control they gain with it)
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Developmental Trends:
1. The levels have reorganized, to “fastest first.”
2. More pluralism (a network property) on each level.
Pluralism examples: 40,000 NGO’s, rise of the power
of Media, Tort Law, Insurance, lobbies, etc.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Smart’s Laws of Technology
1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do.
(Electronic vs. biological rates of evolutionary development).
2. Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of
technological evolutionary development.
(Regulatory choices. Ex: WMD production or transparency,
P2P as a proprietary or open source development)
3. The first generation of any technology is often
dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity,
and with luck the third becomes net humanizing.
(Cities, cars, cellphones, computers).
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
Classic Predictable Accelerations:
Moore’s Law
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Moore’s Law derives from two predictions in 1965 and 1975 by Gordon
Moore, co-founder of Intel, (and named by Carver Mead) that
computer chips (processors, memory, etc.) double their complexity
every 12-24 months at near constant unit cost.
This means that every 15 years, on average, a large number of
technological capacities (memory, input, output, processing) grow by
1000X (Ten doublings: 2,4,8…. 1024). Emergence!
There are several abstractions of Moore’s Law, due to miniaturization
of transistor density in two dimensions, increasing speed (signals
have less distance to travel) computational power (speed × density).
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Ray Kurzweil: A Generalized Moore’s Law
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
Transistor Doublings (2 years)
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Palo Alto
Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Processor Performance (1.8 years)
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Palo Alto
Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net
© 2006 Accelerating.org
DRAM Miniaturization (5.4 years)
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Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Dickerson’s Law: Solved Protein Structures
as a Moore’s-Dependent Process
Richard Dickerson,
1978, Cal Tech:
Protein crystal
structure solutions
grow according to
n=exp(0.19y1960)
Dickerson’s law predicted 14,201 solved crystal
structures by 2002. The actual number (in online
Protein Data Bank (PDB)) was 14,250. Just 49 more.
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Macroscopically, the curve has been quite consistent.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Many Tech Capacity Growth Rates Are
Independent of Socioeconomic Cycles
There are many natural cycles:
Plutocracy-Democracy, Boom-Bust,
Conflict-Peace…
Ray Kurzweil first noted that a
generalized, century-long Moore’s
Law was unaffected by the U.S.
Great Depression of the 1930’s.
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Conclusion: Human-discovered,
Not human-created complexity here.
Not many intellectual or physical
resources are required to keep us on
the accelerating developmental
trajectory. (“MEST compression
is a rigged game.”)
Age of Spiritual Machines, 1999
© 2006 Accelerating.org
IT’s Exponential Economics
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Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Automation and the Service Society
Our 2002 service to manufacturing labor ratio,
110 million service to 21 million goods workers, is 4.2:1
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
Angus Maddison’s
Phases of Capitalist Development, 1982*
Network/Services/KM Society
Society of Intangible Needs (“Weightless Economy”)
Network 1.0
“McJobs” & Service
65% of Jobs, 2000’s
Network 2.0
New Middle Class
40% of Jobs, 2030’s
Network 3.0
Consolidation Again
15% of Jobs, 2060’s
Manufacturing/Information Society
Society of Tangible Needs (“Property Economy”)
Manufacturing 1.0
Exploitive Jobs
50% of Jobs, 1900’s
Manufacturing 2.0
New Middle Class
35% of Jobs, 1950’s
Manufacturing 3.0
Offshoring/Globalizing
14% of Jobs, 2000’s
Agricultural Society
Society of Basic Needs (“Food/Shelter Economy”)
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Agriculture 1.0
Subsistence Jobs
80% of Jobs, 1820’s
Agriculture 2.0
Family Farms
50% of Jobs, 1920’s
Agriculture 3.0
Corporate Farms
2% of Jobs, 1990’s
*Also Pentti Malaska’s Funnel Model of Societal Transition, 1989/03
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Network Economy 1.0
Q: Which is a larger monetary flow in Latin America today,
the bottom-up green or the top-down purple column?
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Remittances
(From Guest Workers in
U.S. and Canada)
Foreign Direct
Investment
(Corporate)
NGO’s
(Nonprofit Contribs)
Government Aid
(IMF, WB, G8, USAID)
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Network Economy 1.0
Q: Which is a larger monetary flow in Latin America today,
the bottom-up green or the top-down purple column?
Remittances
(From Guest Workers in
U.S. and Canada)
Foreign Direct
Investment
(Corporate)
NGO’s
(Nonprofit Contribs)
Government Aid
(IMF, WB, G8, USAID)
A: Remittances, since 2003. This may be a permanent
shift. Shows what could happen in Africa, Russia, and
other continually emigrating (“brain drain”) nations.
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Future of Philanthropy, GBN, 2005
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Tools for Networking 1.0:
Social Network Analysis
Note the linking nodes in these “small world”
(not scale free) networks.
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“Chains of Affection,” Bearman & James Moody, AJS V110 N1, Jul 2004
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Networking Books
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Linked, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi, 2003
Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2003
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Create Your Own Network:
Consider Ben Franklin’s Junto

Met every Friday. The group invented:
–
–
–
–
–
–

Broad Interests, Narrow Tasks.
–
–
–
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the first subscription library in North America
the most advanced volunteer fire department
the first public hospital in Pennsylvania,
an insurance company, a constabulary,
improved streetlights, paving
the University of Pennsylvania.
–
Scientist
Inventor
Businessman
Statesman
© 2006 Accelerating.org
The Voluntary Future
Lifetime hours trends:
1880
1995
2040
Total Available (after eating, 225,900
sleeping, etc.)
298,500 321,900
Worked to earn a living
182,100
122,400 75,900
Balance for Leisure and
Voluntary Work
43,800
176,100 246,000
Prediction: Great increase in voluntary activities. Culture,
entertainment, travel, education, wellness, nonprofit service,
humanitarian and development work, the arts, etc.
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Source: The Fourth Great Awakening and the Future of Egalitarianism,
2000, Robert Fogel (Nobel-prize-winning economist, founder of the field of
cliometrics, the study of economic history using statistical and
mathematical models)
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Many Accelerations are either:
1) Underwhelming or 2) Logistic (“S” curves)
Some Underwhelming Exponentials:
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Productivity per U.S. worker hr has improved 500%
over 75 years (1929-2004, 2% per yr)
Business investment as % of U.S. GDP is flat at 11%
over 25 years.
Nondefense R&D spending as % of First World GDP
is up 30% (1.6 to 2.1%) over 21 years (1981-2002).
Technology spending as % of U.S. GDP is up 100%
(4% to 8%) over 35 years (1967-2002)
BusinessWeek, 75th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Saturation Example 1:
Total World Population
Positive
feedback loop:
Agriculture,
Colonial Expansion,
Economics,
Scientific Method,
Industrialization,
Politics,
Education,
Healthcare,
Information
Technologies, etc.
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
So What Stopped the Growth?
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
Saturation Example 2:
Total World Energy Use
DOE/EIA data shows total world energy use growth rate peaked in the
1970’s. Real and projected growth is progressively flatter since.
Saturation factors:
1. Major conservation after OPEC (1973)
2. Stunning energy efficiency of each new
generation of technological system
3. Saturation of human population and
human needs for tech transformation
Royal Dutch/Shell notes that energy use
declines dramatically proportional to
per capita GDP in all cultures.
Steve Jurvetson notes (2003) the DOE estimates solid state lighting (eg.
the organic LEDs in today's stoplights) will cut the world's energy demand
for lighting in half over the next 20 years. Lighting is approximately 20% of
energy demand.
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Expect such MEST efficiencies in energy technology to be multiplied
dramatically in coming years. Technology is becoming more energyeffective in ways very few of us currently understand.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Global Energy Use Saturation:
Energy Consumption Per Capita
When per capita GDP reaches:
• $3,000 – energy demand
explodes as industrialization
and mobility take off,
• $10,000 – demand slows as the
main spurt of industrialization is
completed,
• $15,000 – demand grows more
slowly than income as services
dominate economic growth and
basic household energy needs
are met,
• $25,000 – economic growth
requires little additional energy.
Later developers, using
“leapfrogging technologies”,
require far less time and energy
to reach equivalent GDP.
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Energy Needs, Choices, and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050, Shell Intnat’l, 2001
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Accelerating Ephemeralization and the
Increasingly Weightless Economy
In 1938 (Nine Chains to the Moon), poet and polymath
Buckminster Fuller coined "Ephemeralization,” positing
that in nature, "all progressions are from material to
abstract" and "eventually hit the electrical stage."
(e.g., sending virtual bits to do physical work)
Due to principles like superposition, entanglement,
negative waves, and tunneling, the world of the quantum
(electron, photon, etc.) appears even more ephemeral than
the world of collective electricity.
In 1981 (Critical Path), Fuller called ephemeralization, "the invisible chemical,
metallurgical, and electronic production of ever-more-efficient and satisfyingly
effective performance with the investment of ever-less weight and volume of
materials per unit function formed or performed". In Synergetics 2, 1983, he
called it "the principle of doing ever more with ever less weight, time and
energy per each given level of functional performance”
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This trend has also been called “virtualization,” “weightlessness,” and
Matter, Energy, Space, Time (MEST) compression, efficiency, or density.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Empire Progression:
An Undeniable West-East Trajectory
Japan
(Temporary: Pop density,
Few youth, no resources.
East Asian Tigers
(Taiwan
Hong Kong
South Korea
Singapore)
American
India
China
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Expect a Singapore-style “Autocratic Capitalist”
transition. Population control, plentiful resources,
stunning growth rate, drive, and intellectual capital.
U.S. science fairs: 50,000 high school kids/year.
Chinese science fairs: 6,000,000 kids/year. For now.
BHR-1, 2002
© 2006 Accelerating.org
8. Twenty Year Scenarios
The Symbiotic Age
A coevolution between Saturating Humans
and Accelerating Technology:
 A time
when computers “speak our language.”
 A time when our technologies are very
responsive to our needs and desires.
 A time when humans and machines are
intimately connected, and always improving
each other.
 A time when we will begin to feel “naked”
without our computer “clothes.”
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© 2006 Accelerating.org
The Start of Symbiosis: The Digital Era
With the advent of the transistor (June 1, 1948), the
commercial digital world emerged.
New problems have emerged (population, human rights,
asymmetric conflict, environment), yet we see solutions
for each in coming waves of technological globalization.
“The human does not change, but our house
becomes exponentially more intelligent.”
We look back not to Spencer or Marx and their
human-directed Utopias, but to Henry Adams,
who realized the core acceleration is due to
the intrinsic properties of technological systems.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Michael Riordan, Crystal Fire, 1998
© 2006 Accelerating.org
An ICT Attractor:
The Conversational User Interface (CUI)
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New York
Palo Alto
Google’s cache (2002)
As we watch Windows 2004
become Conversations 2020…
Convergence of Infotech and Sociotech
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Why Will Most of Us Want to Use An
“Agent Interface/Digital Twin” in 2020?
Ananova, 2002
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
“Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Social Software, Lifelogs
Gmail preserves, for the first time, everything we’ve ever
typed. Gmailers are all bloggers (who don’t know it).
Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said.
Then everything we’ve ever seen. This storage (and
processing, and bandwidth) makes us all networkable in
ways we never dreamed.
Lifeblog, SenseCam, What Was I Thinking, and
MyLifeBits (2003) are early examples of “LifeLogs.”
Systems for auto-archiving and auto-indexing all life
experience. Add NLP, collaborative filtering, and other
early AI to this, and data begins turning into wisdom.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2006 Accelerating.org
The Valuecosm
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New York
Palo Alto
Microcosm, Telecosm (Gilder)
Datacosm (Sterling)
Valuecosm (Smart)
Recording and Publishing DT Preferences
Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us
Mapping Positive Sum Social Interactions
Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice)
Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding
Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable)
Early Examples: Social Network Media
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin)
“I would never upload my consciousness
into a machine.”
“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life
for my children.”
Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050,
your digital mom will be “50% her.”
When your best friend dies in 2080, your
digital best friend will be “80% him.”
Successive approximation, seamless
integration, subtle transition.
When you can shift your own conscious
perspective between your electronic and
biological components, the encapsulation
and transcendence of the biological may
begin to feel like only growth, not death.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
We wouldn’t have it any other way.
Greg Panos (and Mother)
PersonaFoundation.org
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Personality Capture
In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.
No other credible long term futures have been proposed.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming
technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)
© 2006 Accelerating.org
AI-in-the-Interface (a.k.a. “IA”)
• AI is growing, but slowly (KMWorld, 4.2003)
― $1B in ’93 (mostly defense), $12B in 2002
(now mostly commercial). AGR of 12%
― U.S., Asia, Europe equally strong
― Belief nets, neural nets, expert sys growing
faster than decision support and agents
― Incremental enhancement of existing apps
(online catalogs, etc.)
• Computer telephony (CT) making strides
(Wildfire, Booking Sys, Directory Sys).
ASR and TTS improve. Expect dedicated DSPs
on the desktop after central CT. (Circa 2010-15?)
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
• Coming: Linguistic User Interface (LUI)
Persuasive Computing, and
Personality Capture
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Human-Competitive Machine Intelligence:
Automated Trading Comes of Age
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
As of 2005, automated computer trading models
(algorithmic, black box, and program trading) now
execute more than half of all U.S. stock trades.
From 2003 to 2005, Banc of America Securities LLC
let go of half their human traders, while increasing
trading volume 160%.
All major brokers are spending
millions on this technology.
Minor brokers coming next.
We are now seeing the
beginning of the AI Age in the
financial community.
BusinessWeek, 4.18.2005
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Longer Term Scenario:
Solar Energy
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Palo Alto
Twenty to fifty year development horizon.
5-10% efficiencies at present. Need 50%.
Need great, cheap energy storage systems.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Ubiquitous Sensing, Geospatial Web, and
Accelerating Public Transparency
David Brin’s “Panopticon”
The Transparent Society, 1998
Hitachi’s mu-chip:
RFID for paper
currency
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2006 Accelerating.org
MEST Compression as a Developmental Attractor:
Don’t Bet Against It!
Balloon Satellites: Disruptive Tech?
Inventor: Hokan Colting
21stCenturyAirships.com
180 feet diameter. Autonomous.
60,000 feet (vs. 22,000 miles)
Permanent geosynch. location.
Onboard solar and navigation.
A “quarter sized” receiver dish.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Q1: Which apps have been
discussed?
a.
Border monitoring
b.
City monitoring
c.
Urban broadband
d.
Early warning radar
Q2: Why are satellites presently
failing against the wired world?
Latency, bandwidth, launch costs.
MEST compression always wins.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Tomorrow’s Fastspace:
User-Created 3D Persistent Worlds
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Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Future Salon in Second Life
Streaming audio for main speaker, chat for others.
Streaming video added 2005.
Cost: $10 for life + fast graphics card ($180)
© 2006 Accelerating.org
U.S. Transcontinental Railroad:
Promontory Point Fervor
Built mostly by hardworking immigrants
The Network of the 1880’s
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2006 Accelerating.org
IT Globalization (2000-2020):
Promontory Point Revisited
The more things change,
the more some things
stay the same.
The intercontinental internet will be
built primarily by hungry young
programmers and tech support
personnel in India, Asia, third-world
Europe, Latin America, and other
developing economic zones.
In coming decades, such individuals will outnumber the First World
technical support population between five- and ten-to-one.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Consider what this means for the goals of U.S. business and
education: Global management, partnerships, and collaboration.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Information Age:
Staggered Closing of Global Divides
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Palo Alto
Digital divide is already closing fast. 77% of
the world now has access to a telephone*.
Innovation leader: Grameen Telecom
Income divide may be closing the next
fastest. First world plutocracy still increasing,
but we are already “rationalizing” global
workforce wages in the last decade*.
Education divide may close next (post-CUI)
Power divide likely to close last. Political
change is the slowest of all domains.
*World Bank, 2005
© 2006 Accelerating.org
New Business IA/Social Network Idea:
24/7 Affordable Tech Education
From Geek Squad to Global Computer Helpers
80 million smart, underemployed tech workers, working
at a salary of $1,400/year (China, India)
+ 140 million U.S. labor force (2000).
+ Exponentiating capabilites of our IT systems
+ Commodity communications costs
+ PC transparency software (Gotomypc)
+ Trust (Privacy)
= 24/7 Tech Education
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
How soon? Watch Dell…
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Our Generation’s Theme
First World Saturating
Third World Uplifting
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2006 Accelerating.org
The Pentagon’s New Map
A New Global Defense Paradigm
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Shrinking the Disconnected Gap
The Computational “Ozone Hole”
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Robo sapiens
“Huey and Louey”
AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2
(Something very cool
about this algorithm…)
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Aibo Soccer
© 2006 Accelerating.org
A Prediction: The Sputnik of Networking 2.0 Society
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Sputnik (1957)
Humbot 0.1 (2005)
Humbot 1.0 (2025)
U.S.-Surpassing
Space/Defense Tech
U.S. Soldier-Enhancing
Security/Warfighting Tech
Global Soldier-Surpassing
Security/Policing Tech
Q: Will the U.S. national security sector supply the world with Humbot 1.0?
This is an important strategic uncertainty at present. The choice is ours.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
A Networking 2.0 Strategic Proposal:
Innovate, Collaborate, and “Fight for 40%”
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New York
Palo Alto
IBM-Lenovo (Chinese Computer Company)
laptop deal. IBM retains 18% ownership.
Is this a true innovation partnership?
We can make the deal so interdependent that
it must be.
Technology interdependence runs ahead of
corporate interdependence which then leads
political interdependence today globally.
(Not usually the reverse).
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Our Greatest Strategic Interest:
Managing Globalization
“America has had 200 years to
invent, regenerate, and calibrate
the balance that keeps markets free
without becoming monsters. We
have the tools to make a difference.
We have the responsibility to make
a difference. And we have a huge
interest in making a difference.
Managing globalization is… our
overarching national interest today
and the political party that
understands that first… will own the
real bridge to the future.”
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and
the Olive Tree: Understanding
Globalization (2000).
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Globalization Management
Backlash forces have to be kept in check by:
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Global tech innovation and diffusion
Global economic growth
Global political
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Palo Alto
accountability
transparency
fair policies
minimal government (maximizing tech and
economic development)
security
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Interdependency/Development Metrics
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Core Countries
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Tech, Econ, Cultural Exchange Bandwidth
Guest Worker Programs/Visa Reform
Gap Countries
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Child and Infant Mortality Rates (Lagging Indicators)
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New York
Palo Alto
“The primary global currencies by which the “quick and
privileged” negotiate change with the “slower and deprived”
(Pete Lantz)
Infrastructure
Information Access (Culturally Appropriate)
© 2006 Accelerating.org
S-Curves and Creative Destruction
New Old Europe (Network 1.0) Spain’s Recent Creation of TwoTier Workforce. “McJobs” Under
Newly Creatively Destructive
40). (20  5% Unemployment)
Ireland, New E.U. (10 on flat tax)
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
New Asia (Network 1.0)
Very High CD Index
Taiwan, Hong Kong, China,
Korea, Singapore, Malaysia,
India, Vietnam, etc.
United States (Network 0.8)
50% CD Index
50% of top 25 companies no
longer top after 25 years.
We are IT-challenged vs. Asia
Japan (Network 1.0)
Old Europe (Mfg 3.0)
Low/Very Low CD Index
Germany (13% unemployment)
Italy (11% unemployment)
France (10% unemployment)
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Taiwan’s Example
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New York
Palo Alto
Taiwan has one of the highest degrees of
economic creative destruction in the world.
Taiwan owns 46,000 contract factories in
China (mutually assured economic
destruction).
Taiwan has become the IT hardware
manufacturing capital of the world.
Tamkang U. in Taiwan requires its university
undergraduates to take courses in Futures
Studies. (Coincidence?)
© 2006 Accelerating.org
9. Developing Tomorrow’s Medical Toolkit
Digging the Data Mine: Epidemiology
Greg Cole, UCLA, noticed:
1.
Asian Indians have 25% of U.S.
Alzheimer’s rates, but often
equivalent heart disease.
2.
Curcumin, the lipophilic dye in
Turmeric (Indian curry spice) looks
like Congo Red (which binds to
Amyloid plaques.
Result: The most exciting new
potential Alzheimer’s therapy in a
decade.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
"Curcumin inhibits formation of amyloid beta oligomers and fibrils, binds plaques,
and reduces amyloid in vivo.," Yang F, Cole GM, etc., J Biol Chem 2005 Feb 18;
280(7):5892-5901
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Globalized Health Care
When will we see the first HMO willing to fly its
patients globally for procedures?
To train international physicians in a global
health care network?
International ‘medical tourism’ is already a
booming industry.
In vitro fert. in Israel: $12K vs. 90K in US
Heart surgery in India: $20K vs. 200K
And outcomes are often even better!
(higher volume, more specialization).
There are huge political barriers but major
opportunities as well.
4G Web: Personalized physician access 24/7,
moving to preventative medicine finally.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Kaiser? Subspecialty HMO leader.
© 2006 Accelerating.org
Innovation and IP Balance:
Lessons of Bose and Microvision
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Innovation diffusion prevented due to overly restrictive IP policy
(often due to philosophy of a single individual controlling the corporation).
© 2006 Accelerating.org
The New Paradigm: Out of (Individual) Control.
The Wisdom of the (Well Organized) Crowd.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
© 2006 Accelerating.org
10. Group Discussion