Business Statistics QM-230 Basic Information BBA(H),BBIS,BSEF Fall 2014 Program Semester Credit Hours Pre requisites (if any) Resource Person 3 Business Mathematics, QM-110 Contact information Course Description: Important decisions are rarely made by intuition alone. We need to use the data to develop our insights and to support our analysis. Quantitative analysis includes the tools and techniques with which we seek to replicate reality mathematically and statistically. Statistical Techniques are applied in all the functions of business like Operations, Marketing, HR, Finance etc. The aim of this course is to learn when a technique is appropriate and what it can achieve. The emphasis throughout the course is on concepts and reasoning rather than technical details. You should acquire some basic data analysis skills but most importantly, become a more informed and critical producer and user of business Statistical analyses. Learning Objectives: Ser. Course Learning Objectives # 1 To understand the basic concepts and principles used in Business Statistics. 2 3 4 Organizing qualitative and quantitative data into a frequency table, displaying the data through charts and graphs, describing and exploring data through different numerical measures. To know and understand probability and its different rules. To clearly identify and understand statistical concepts like probability and sampling distribution helpful for understanding more advanced concepts like estimation and hypothesis testing. Link with Program Learning Objectives To inculcate business knowledge and analytical skills in graduates to think decisively in order to develop innovative solutions to problems in a business environment. To provide a progressive and structured framework to graduates that enables them in developing and applying knowledge set of critical and ethical evaluation. To craft graduates’ expertise in order to increase their resourcefulness. To develop critical thinking skills for the purpose of evaluating information, solving problems, and making sound decisions. ________________________________________________________________________School of Business & Economics QM-120 University of Management and Technology Textbooks & Supplies: 1. Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach (8th Edition) By: David F. Groebner, Patrick W. Shannon, Phillip C. Fry, Kent D. Smith Supplementary Material: 2. Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics (13th Edition) By: Douglas A. Lind, William G. Marchal, and David Wathen 3. Essentials of Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Excel (3rd Edition) By: Anderson and Sweeny Web links: moodle.umt.edu.pk Email Addresses Participants should establish their email accounts on the UMT email system, and use this address for all types of academic communications during this course. Moodle Participants should regularly visit the course website on MOODLE Course Management system, and fully benefit from its capabilities Classroom Behavior: Positive and constructive class participation will be monitored for each class. Particular emphasis will be given during the presentation sessions. The manner in which the question is asked or answered will also be noted. Your behaviour, as business executive will contribute to the class participation marks. Participant Responsibilities: The learning process is based on independent work with texts, textbook, and cases supported by lectures and assignments/cases - see schedule. Participants are supposed to have read the text chapters under discussion in advance. Questions answered to these text chapters, will contribute to the class participation marks. Use of Unfair Means Participants are expected to do their own work in their assignments, quizzes and exams. They are always encouraged to discuss with each other but the assignments, quizzes and exams should be their own work reflecting their own effort and intellect. The School of Business & Economics is VERY STRICT against any action of plagiarism, copying and cheating. So don’t put yourself in any embarrassing position that may mar your career. In summary, any or all of these actions may be taken against you in case of cheating. Zero Point for the assignment/quiz/exam Case would be sent to UMC Committee ________________________________________________________________________School of Business & Economics QM-120 University of Management and Technology Use of Mobile Phones and Other Electronic Devices Use of mobile phones and similar devices is prohibited during the class Your phone should not be heard or visible during the class All mobile phones should be turned-off (or at least in the “silent” mode) and secured in pockets or bags during the class time, and may not be used for ANY purpose, including calculations, time-keeping, etc. In case you are anticipating an emergency call, you need to discuss this matter with the resource person BEFORE the start of the class Entering and Leaving the Classroom You are requested to seek permission from the resource person while entering or leaving the classroom during the session Tests and Grading: According to new grading policy participants are supposed to obtain 50% marks in 70% evaluation and 50% marks in their final exam. Passing marks are 50% of total assessment. Quizzes/Class Participation: Quizzes will be taken according to calendar of activities. The quizzes are aimed at evaluating the participants’ understanding and clarity of different concepts. Some corrective action will be taken if necessary, to fill the gap between desired and actual. Surprise quizzes may also be taken. Required Material Participants are required to bring the following in every class they come to attend: 1. Textbook 2. Calculator 3. Ring file (for notes) 4. Lead pencil (and accessories) (optional) NOTE: Failure to bring any of the first three things or being absent or late in a class, may result in a loss of marks in your class participation, and may adversely affect your final grade. Assessment Mode and Weightage 1. Quizzes 20% 2. Assignments 15% 3. Project/Presentation 10% 4. Class Participation 5% 5. Mid Term 20% 6. End Term 30% ________________________________________________________________________School of Business & Economics QM-120 University of Management and Technology Calendar of Activities Readings & Page Numbers Sess. Topics to be Covered 1-3 The What, Where, Why, and How of Data Collection: What is Statistics and Business Statistics? Population & Sample Parameter & Statistic Data & its types Data Collection Methods Variable Identification Qualitative and Quantitative 4-5 The What, Where, Why, and How of Data Collection: Data Measurement Levels Descriptive Statistics Inferential Statistics Survey & Design of Sampling Identification of Sampling procedures CH: 1 Page: 1-15 David F. Groebner CH:1 Page: 16-23 David F. Groebner Expected Quizzes Assignments and Problems Business, economics & finance applications discussions Assignment # 1 Business, economics & finance applications discussions Learning objective To learn the importance of data in real life, how to transform data into information, the role of business statistics in terms of practical applications of statistics in business and corporate world. To understand similarities and differences between different sampling methods, to understand how to categorize data by type and level of measurements. Quiz # 1 Describing the Data: 6-7 7-9 10–11 Frequency Distributions a Group Data Frequency Distributions Steps for constructing frequency distributions Relative and Joint Frequency Distribution Graphical Presentation of Data : Histogram Relative Frequency Histograms and Ogives Bar Chart, Pie Charts Stem and Leaf Diagrams Line Charts and Scatter Diagrams Describing Data using Numerical Measures: Measures of Centre and Location: Parameters and Statistics Population and Sample Mean Median and Mode Weighted Mean, Percentiles, Quartiles Box and Whisker Plots CH:2 Page: 31-49 Business, economics & finance applications discussions To learn some of the most frequently used tools and techniques for describing the data. David F. Groebner CH:2 Page: 54 - 72 David F. Groebner CH:3 Page: 91- 107 David F. Groebner Business, economics & finance applications discussions Assignment # 2 Quiz # 2 Business, economics & finance applications discussions Quiz # 3 To construct and interpret a frequency histogram, various types of bar charts, interpreting trends trough line and scatter graphs of data. To interpret mean, median, mode, and weighted mean for a set of data and understand what these values represent, to construct box and whisker plot and interpret it. ________________________________________________________________________School of Business & Economics QM-120 University of Management and Technology 12-14 Describing Data using Numerical Measures: Measures of Variation: Range and Interquartile Range Quartile Deviation Population Variance & Standard Deviation Sample Variance & Standard Deviation Coefficient of Variation The Empirical Rule Tchebysheff’s Theorem Standardized Data Values Page: 115 - 132 David F. Groebner Business, economics & finance applications discussions Assignment # 3 To compute the range, interquartile range, variance, variance, and standard deviation and know what these values mean, to compute a z score and the coefficient of variation and understand how they are applied in decision making situations. Review Session 15-16 Mid Term 17-20 Using Probability and Probability Distributions: The Basics of Probability Important Probability Terms Methods of Assigning Probability The Rules of Probability Addition Rules Measuring Probability Conditional Probability Multiplication Rules 21-23 CH:3 Discrete Probability Distributions: Random Variables Displaying Discrete Probability Distributions Graphically Mean and Standard Deviation Discrete Probability Distributions Binomial Probability Distribution Characteristics of Binomial Probability Distribution Mean and Standard Deviation of Binomial Probability Distribution Other Discrete Probability Distributions CH:4 Page: 157-187 David F. Groebner Business, economics & finance applications discussions Assignment # 4 Quiz # 4 CH:5 Page: 203 - 238 David F. Groebner Business, economics & finance applications discussions To understand three approaches to assigning probabilities, to be able to understand the conditions where addition and multiplication rules are applied, to understand and interpret the conditional probability. To be able to calculate and interpret the expected value of discrete random variable, and to apply the binomial and other discrete probability distributions to business decision-making situations. Quiz # 5 24-27 Introduction to Continuous Probability Distributions: The Normal Probability Distribution The Standard Normal Probability Distribution Approximate Area under the Normal Curve Uniform Probability Distribution The Exponential Probability Distribution CH:6 Page: 251 - 272 David F. Groebner Business, economics & finance applications discussions Assignment # 5 Quiz # 6 To understand and deal with application situations where random variable is continuous instead of discrete, to determine the probabilities using the standard normal distribution, and to calculate the probabilities associated with uniform and exponential random variable. ________________________________________________________________________School of Business & Economics QM-120 University of Management and Technology 28-30 Introduction to Sampling Distributions: Sampling Error: What it is and Why it Happens Calculating Sampling Error The Role of Sample Size in Sampling Error Sampling Distribution of the Mean The Central Limit Theorem Sampling Distribution of a Proportion Working with Proportions Sampling Distribution of P CH:7 Page: 285 - 315 David F. Groebner Business, economics & finance applications discussions To introduce to the important concepts of sampling error and sampling distributions and discuss how this knowledge can be used to answer the questions faced quite regularly by the marketing executives and the quality engineers in different situations. ________________________________________________________________________School of Business & Economics QM-120 University of Management and Technology