Press Conference
April 16, 2015 for
The Great Transition:
Shifting from Fossil Fuels to
Solar and Wind Energy
With Co-authors
Lester R. Brown, Janet Larsen,
and J. Matthew Roney
Global Annual Energy Growth since 2008
70
Source: EPI from BP, EIA, and REN21
Percent
50
40
30
20
10
0
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
60
More Wind on the Grid
• Portugal and Spain, wind
generation > coal
• On some days wind power
exceeds half of Ireland’s
electricity generation
• Four German states get
more than 50% of their
electricity from wind
Wind Share of Electricity Generation in
Leading Countries, 2014
Denmark
42,8
Portugal
24,1
Spain
20,0
Ireland
18,9
United
Kingdom
9,4
Germany
9,1
Romania
8,8
0
10
Source: Compiled by EPI
from Energinet.dk; REN;
REE; EirGrid; DECC;
BDEW; Transelectrica
20
30
Percent
40
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
• European countries
dominate in the share of
electricity generated from
wind farms
50
Low-Carbon, Low-Risk Energy
Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons/ILIOTEC Solar
GmbH; Iberdrola Renewables Inc.; Gretar Ívarsson
Billionaires Betting Big on Renewables
• Warren Buffett
– $15 billion invested in solar
and wind by early 2014
– “There’s another $15 billion
ready to go.”
• Ted Turner
– With utility Southern Power,
acquired 7 solar PV farms
totaling ~300 MW
• Philip Anschutz
– Will soon have a massive
3,000 MW wind farm under
construction in Wyoming to
supply CA, NV, AZ
Photo Credit: Todd Spink
THE SOLAR REVOLUTION
Photo Credit: Dennis Schroeder / NREL
The Solar Revolution
• Solar PV growing
> 50% annually
Levelized Cost of Energy for Utility-scale
Solar PV Systems in the United States,
2009-2014
• Globally, solar panels
> $74/W in 1972
• In 2014, < $0.70/W
• Installed cost of PV
down 50% since 2011
Image Credit: Lazard
Solar Beating the Grid
Cumulative Installed Solar Photovoltaics
Capacity in Leading Countries, 2000-2014
• In growing number of
markets, solar electricity
now cheaper than grid avg
40 000
Germany
35 000
• U.S. ramping up
• Staggering goals in China
and India – 100 GW each
• Rural electrification
• Policy giving way to
economics
Megawatts
– Solarization of U.S. home
sector
30 000
China
25 000
Japan
20 000
Italy
15 000
U.S.
10 000
5 000
0
2000
2005
2010
Source: EPI from BP, IEA-PVPS
2015
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
45 000
THE AGE OF WIND
Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons/Drenaline
The Age of Wind
World Cumulative Installed Wind Power
Capacity, 1980-2014
• Generation growing > 20%
per year
400 000
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
350 000
300 000
Megawatts
250 000
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: EPI from GWEC, Worldwatch
2020
• 370 GW worldwide
– Enough for 90m U.S. homes
• Development heating up in
Latin America
• Asia overtook Europe in
2014
World Wind Leaderboard
• Denmark: wind will be
cheapest electricity
source by 2016, half
cost of new coal or gas
120 000
China
105 000
90 000
75 000
United
States
60 000
45 000
Germany
30 000
Spain
India
United
Kingdom
15 000
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
• U.K. and Germany:
wind up, coal down
135 000
Megawatts
• China added 23 GW in
2014
Cumulative Installed Wind Power Capacity in
Leading Countries, 1995-2014
2020
Source: EPI from GWEC, Worldwatch, CREIA, EWEA, BWEA
U.S. Wind Power
120 000
110 000
100 000
90 000
Megawatts
80 000
70 000
60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
Source: EPI from GWEC, AWEA
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
130 000
Cumulative Installed Wind Power Capacity in
Leading Countries and Texas, 2014
• China has greater installed
wind capacity, but U.S.
wind farms generate more
electricity
• Cost of U.S. wind power
down ~60% since 2009
• Nine states generate >12%
of electricity from wind
• Texas 9% wind, > nuclear
Wind Overtakes Nuclear in China
• Wind is now China’s #3
electricity source behind
coal and hydro
Wind- and Nuclear-generated Electricity
in China, 1995-2014
180
Wind
140
• Wind potential could
meet 10x demand
• Wind could meet power
needs of most of top 10
carbon emitters
120
Terawatt-hours
• Goal = 200 GW of wind
capacity by 2020
Nuclear
100
80
60
40
20
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: EPI from BP, NEA, CNEA
2015
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
160
NUCLEAR POWER IN
DECLINE
Photo Credit: Sandia Science & Technology Park
Nuclear Power in Decline
World Electricity Generation from Nuclear
Power Plants, 1970-2014
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
3 000
2 500
2 000
Terawatt-hours
• Global nuclear
generation peaked
in 2006
• Peaked in France
in 2005; United
States in 2010
• Number of
operating reactors
dropped from high
of 438 in 2002 to
390 as of end-2014
1 500
1 000
500
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: EPI from BP, IAEA/Chabot
2020
Costly from Cradle…
• Unlike with wind and solar
power, building new nuclear
facilities has become more
expensive over time
• Construction delays and cost
overruns are typical features of
nuclear projects
• Of 66 reactors under
construction in mid-2014, 49
were behind schedule,
including all 5 in the United
States and 20 of 27 in China
Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons/
Tennessee Valley Authority
…to Grave
• Costs rising for aging plants—
operation, maintenance, fuel
• Five U.S. reactors have retired
early since 2013
• Closing is costly: ~$4.4 billion for
two California reactors; $130
billion for 4-reactor U.K. site with
legacy of weapons-grade
plutonium
• Waste issue remains unresolved
• Accident risk
Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons/awnisALAN
TA P P I N G T H E E A R T H ’ S
H E AT
Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons/Gretar
Ívarsson
Geothermal Power
Geothermal Share of Electricity Generation in
Leading Countries, 2012
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
Iceland
El Salvador
Kenya
Philippines
New Zealand
Costa Rica
Nicaragua
Papua New Guinea
Source: EPI from EIA
Indonesia
0
10
20
Percent
30
40
• Japan has enough geothermal
power potential to meet over
half its electricity needs
• Could power some 40
countries’ economies
• Philippines’ goal is 3,300 MW
by 2030
• Indonesia’s target is 10,000
MW by 2025
• EGS technology could lead to
some 500,000 MW of
geothermal power in the United
States
HYDROPOWER:
PA S T A N D F U T U R E
Photo credit: Farwestern / Gregg M. Erickson via
Wikimedia Commons
Hydropower Worldwide
World Hydroelectric Generation, 1965-2013
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
4 000
3 500
Terawatt-hours
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
1965
1975
1985
1995
Source: BP, IEA
2005
2015
• Used in 150 countries
• Supplies 16% of the
world’s electricity
• Global capacity of
1 million MW
• Of the world’s 45,000
large dams, 8,600
generate electricity
• Pumped storage
CLOSING COAL PLANTS
Photo Credit: National Renewable
Energy Laboratory
Peak Coal in China?
• China’s coal use:
Coal Consumption in China, 1965-2014
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
2 000
Million Tons Oil Equivalent
1 800
1 600
1 400
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
1965
1975
1985
1995
Source: BP; NBS
2005
2015
– Exceeds the rest of the
world combined
– But fell in 2014 for the first
time in recent history
• Peak coal is near:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Air pollution concerns
Environmental regulations
Wind and solar booming
Improving efficiency
Slowing economic growth
U.S.-China climate
agreement
India Coal Use Growing
Coal Consumption in India, 1965-2013
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
350
Million Tons Oil Equivalent
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1965
1975
1985
1995
Source: BP
2005
2015
• Indian government claims
to be doubling down on
coal, planning hundreds
of new plants
• How many will be built
remains to be seen
– Urban air pollution worse
than in China
– Local opposition to coal
– Taxes on coal doubled,
partly funding solar
development
– Solar costs undercut the
grid in most of the country
Coal Plants Closing
Coal Consumption in the United States,
1965-2014
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
700
Million Tons Oil Equivalent
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1965
1975
1985
1995
Source: EIA
2005
2015
• Lower natural gas prices,
air pollution regulations,
and local campaigns are
closing coal plants across
the United States
• Of the 523 U.S. coal-fired
power plants, 188 have
recently closed or plan to
close
• Australia, Canada, and
many E.U. countries have
also passed peak coal
T H E R I S E A N D FA L L
OF OIL
Photo Credit: U.S. Coast Guard
U.S. Oil Use Down
U.S. Oil Consumption and Production, 1965-2014
Million Barrels Per Day
20
Consumption
15
10
Production
5
0
1965
1975
1985
1995
Source: EPI from EIA
2005
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
25
2015
• U.S. #1 consumer
• U.S. oil use fell 8.5%
from 2005 to 2014
–
–
–
–
People driving less
Better vehicle efficiency
Public transit expanding
Culture change: young
people no longer
prioritizing cars
– Car sharing and bike
sharing spreading
A C C E L E R AT I N G T H E
TRANSITION
Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Joe Gough
Carbon Pricing in Action
Image Credit: World Bank
Renewables Make Business Sense
• Large investment banks channeling
tens of billions into renewables
• > 600 U.S. institutions at 100%
green power
• Walmart aiming for 660 PV systems
on U.S. buildings by 2018
• Apple’s 25-year, $850 million solar
power purchase agreement with
First Solar to supply CA operations
• Google’s 100% renewable electricity
goal: wind; abandoned CA oil and
gas field  82-MW solar farm
Photo Credit: Walmart/Flickr; SunEdison
To learn more about the energy
transition…
read The Great Transition:
Shifting from Fossil Fuels to
Solar and Wind Energy
by Lester R. Brown
with Janet Larsen, J. Matthew
Roney, and Emily E. Adams.
The book and supporting
data are available at
www.earth-policy.org
#GreatTransition
Our Clean Energy Future
The energy transition will change not only how we view
the world but also how we view ourselves. Coal plant
smokestacks that dirty the air and alter the climate will
be replaced by solar panels on our rooftops and wind
turbines turning gracefully in the distance.
Welcome to the clean energy era.
– Chapter 9, The Great Transition