India, Challenges & Pitfalls by Sumeet Maniar (K2

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Austin Game Conference

India’s Gaming Market Potential:

Austin, TX

Tuesday, September 18, 2008

Why India?

Why India?

Questions/Concerns about India

There are several preconceptions and views:

Is it really the 1 BILLION population argument? no and yes

Indians will not spend for games

There is no money in gaming in India

Indians are not gamers

What is the holdback? Infrastructure and policy

India Macro Views

Indian market is poised to be a significant gaming market in 2-

3 years’ time

Macro factors:

GDP hhh PC Growth hh Broadband h

E-commerce hh

Overall economic growth will create a large user base with spend potential

 PC placements are at a record level each year (3%)

 Broadband & internet penetration , though fragmented, will increase with better government policy, lower prices, and last-mile competition

 2006 11.2 M, 2007 32 M, and 2008E 46 active internet users

E-commerce growth and spend is growing exponentially YoY

India Micro Views

Indian market is poised to be a significant gaming market in 2-

3 years’ time

Micro factors:

 Proliferation of interest in games throughout the country

Rise of PC gaming cafes

Increasing participation in tournaments throughout the country

 Ad spending from many upcoming upstarts

 Xbox Live and Sony PS3 launchings (CAVEAT)

 Many entrants into the market , VC and corporate investment dwarfs revenues

Indian Demographics

India’s pace of reform will be much larger than most other countries.

Indian Demographics: Internet

As a result, India will have sizeable, young population with spending power.

 About 50% of the population is below the age of 30 and with the

Internet…

15 million internet using School going children and college students (those below age 30), currently represent 35% of the internet audience in top 30 cities

 13 million non-school attending men (employed or non-employed men) aged 35 or below represent another 33%, or about (13 million)

True middle class is about 300 million and growing, with incomes up 6-

7% p.a. in 2006 and 2007

Sources: India government websties, I-Cube (Indian research firm)

PC Penetration and Internet Adoption

India’s PC placements and internet connections are increasingly rapidly to the point of becoming interdependent or near 1:1

 Online population grew from < 8M

(2003) to > 60 M Dec. 2007

(www.internetworldstats.com)

 Indian PC shipments crossed 6.5 M in

Dec. 2007, >20% growth (IDC)

 Internet connection points in India increased by 32% from 2006-2007

 includes cafes and homes (most café owners obtain home BB connections)

 Fluctuations in the gap are due to uneven growth in Tier II and Tier III cities

Sources: IDC, 2007 I-cube Internet in India Report with IMRB International

Broadband Penetration Rising

The number of HH broadband penetrations will increase radically. Hence, by

2010-2012, India will become a sizeable market for many applications.

 Currently (Jan 2008), 3.24 mm BB subs (256k/512k +)

 By 2010, the number of households with bb will exceed that of Korea

 Estimate currently 315 mm total households in India

 Sources vary, but >20 mm HH connections by 2012 is consistent

(Govt of India projects 20 MM by

2010)

Millions

20

15

10

5

0

35

30

25

1%

3.24

2007

4.4 mm,

5.5% monthly

Growth

BB Connections

6/30/08

% Penetration of Households

1.9%

6

2008

2.8%

9

2009

6.1%

20

2010

9%

30

2012

Sources: IDC, 2007 India Infoonline, India Gov’t Estimates

E-commerce Spend

E-commerce growth has been phenomenal, with online subscriptions and digital downloads leading the growth

Figures in millions

Online Travel Industry

Online Non-Travel Industry

- eTailing

- Online Classifieds

-Pain Content Subscription

- Digital Downloads

Total B2C/ C2C E-Commerce Market

2006-7

1,375.0

395.0

212.5

135.0

5.0

42.5

1,770.0

2007-8 % YoY

1,750.0

27%

552.5

276.3

40%

30%

205.0

7.5

63.8

2,302.5

52%

50%

50%

30%

Highest

Growth

 2004-5 e-commerce revenues only $142 M, almost 13x growth in 3 years

 2009-2010 will double to $4.6 Billion of which online gaming is expected to hit $200M + !!!!

Sources: IMRB, IAMAI

General Market Gaming Opportunity

Data points to the Indian online gaming, while nascent, is poised to explode.

Overall Games Industry

$400-475 mm

2010*

$200 MM

Online!

Videogame Piracy

$ 1.3 Billion in 2007

(Financial Times)

 IAMAI, Pearl Research, IDC; NASSCOM predicts $300 m in 2009 &

$424 m in 2010, about 72% CAGR over 2006-2011

Growth of Internet Gaming Cafes

 Despite fast growth in PC/home internet, cafes will be main point of access

 200k total internet cafes in India;

 expect 10k to be gaming in next 2-3 years

 average seat capacity 8 to 25

 café will be main mode of access

 * thus the impetus for online gaming (ala Korea in the late 90s, The

Financial Times, India)

No. Online Gamers & Revenues

Millions of Online Gamers in India

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Subscription revenue

 $1.7mm 2006 $3 mm 2007

 $6 mm 2008 $72 mm 2011

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Show me the money!

From the café sector alone, there is potential, in 2010:

Cafes

Seats per café

Total Seats per hour hours/day days/year

% spending extra

Year

10,000

10

100,000

$1

4

300

$120,000,000

10,000

10

100,000

$2

4

300

50%

$180,000,000

Indian Market Outlook: Gaming

 Player Base (mostly male, shifting to female (SevenSeas)

 400k+ FPS, 4-5 mm general online gamers;

 in MMOs; historically A3 and Ragnarok (peak 2-3000 CCUs)

 Web based or flash games will be most successful to reach the masses

 200,000 internet cafes, but gaming cafes maybe 5,000 (but growing)

 LAN Based games, NFS, Counterstrike, Warcraft III (DOTA)

 Will be the primary distribution method

Consoles: 37% tax, still a luxury good (PS2 is not, though)

 Mobiles: carriers eat 70% of the revenue

 Competition: many entrants (Zapak, Sify, Indiagames, Games2win)

+many other funded startups

 Sony, Virgin, EA and 20-30 others all active in Mumbai, Hyderabad

Current Online Layout

In general most players are offering portals and MMOs to the casual sector

Persistence/

MMO

CT

Race

Zapak.com

(2008) ?

War Rock

KOL

Dying

Rag narok

A3

Multiplayer

KrazyCarts Dance

Mela

CricketParty.com

Nostale

(SIFY)

Simple Games

Circles represent approximate subscriber base

0 $

IndiaGames

Games2win

Zapak.com portal

Indyarocks

SIFY Portal

Casual

Spend Online $$$

Serious Gamer

Evolution of the Indian Landscape

The industry is on the verge of takeoff.

Past Present Future

+ Casual

(mostly males)

+ Subscription

+ 2 MMORPGS

+ Free2Play

+ Advergaming

+ 5 MMOGs most casual

+ Too many adv ergames

+ F2P

+ Micropricing

+ Web/Flash

+ Many MMOGs

Evolution of the Indian Landscape

The industry is on the verge of takeoff.

Past

+ Casual

(mostly males)

+ Subscription

+ 2 MMORPGS

+ Free2Play

+ Advergaming

+ 5 MMOGs most casual

Game

Portals

Present

Aware ness

Rise of

Gaming

Cafes.

Future

+ Too many adv ergames

+ Micro$, F2P

+ Web/Flash

+ Many MMOGs

New

Gaming

Genres

Localized

Content Advance

Models

(Rev.

Share)

Casual

Games

New

Entrants

BBand

Penetrat.

Funding

Game

Dvlprs

Industry Catalysts

Underlying graph from IDC 2007

2007 2009 2011

Target Demographic: India is wide open

EMERGING MARKET (INDIA)

Low End

Gaming exposure unknown

 First stage: casual games

 Low ARPU

5 10 15

Wider because very little

Distractions (Consoles

20 25

High End

 Habits are forming

Higher ARPU

Loves quality graphic

 Loves community

30 AGE

Low End

 Popular casual game for 35+

Pricing

Success in India will come from the ability to price in small increments

 Toothpaste, cigarettes, shampoo

30%-40% extra margin!!!

 “Hindustan Unilever is one of the jewels in the company's emerging-market operations. It is India's biggest consumer-goods company and biggest advertiser. One of its strengths is its ability to cater to all segments of the population by adapting products and prices. In laundry detergents, for instance, it makes Surf Excel for the affluent, Rin for the

“aspiring” class and Wheel for poorer people, the vast majority of whom live in the countryside. It sells 70% of its shampoo in one-use sachets for the equivalent of a couple of cents.” The Economist Jan 31 2008

Pricing and Payment

How do I get paid? India is a cash society, though…

 Prepaid cards

 ATM Debit cards

 Credit cards (the Indian youth: in one generation have become like Americans)

 ITZ cash

 Mobile Payments (in India effective payment methods Oxygen, Paymate)

 Cash via collection centres: internet cafes or other shops

Biggest Challenges

Factors

 Power, power, power; roads, roads, roads

 Pune example during WR

 India just does not have enough power to fuel GDP growth in some states, though many projects scheduled to come online in 5 years’ time (it will get worse before it gets better)

 Reliable internet (both industry and government)

Connection speeds (1:4); Yes even DSL is shared unwittingly to consumers

 Connections improving, but still lag and latency within India is spaghetti

 Fiber is everywhere in metros, but noone can connect; LAST MILE ownership

 Weather?

 Yes. Monsoon season creates more havoc than anything

 Local government regulations or political actions

 Smashing of cafes because of bad posting on Orkut

 Chennai – café regulations

 How does one best collect cash payments?

India Map

India is a vast place and a very complex country.

+ state differences

+ cultural

+ structural

+ infrastructure

+ gamer (café vs. home)

India Map: Cafe Cities

Also 20-30 Tier II/Tier III cities, and numerous university towns

Cite differences

Ahmedabad

Baroda

Gwalior

Mumbai (suburbs)

Pune

Bangalore

Mysore

Indore

Hyderabad

Chennai

Kolkata

Graphical Journey

Graphical Journey

Graphical Journey

Photos

 Leave with this fact: the kid with no shoes and the construction worker at a

Tier III café in India

Graphical Journey

Graphical Journey

Graphical Journey

Graphical Journey

Graphical Journey

Graphical Journey

Graphical Journey

Graphical Journey

Graphical Journey

Graphical Journey

Graphical Journey: End

End Note

Thank You!!!

Indian Market Outlook: Appendix

 Consists largely of casual gamers who are mostly male ages 15-25; however this factor is shifting; many young males looking towards advanced games

 over 400k First Person shooter players in India

 university and college festivals of several thousands all have an advanced gaming focus

 most games largely LAN focused

– Need For Speed, DOTA, Counterstrike

 Gaming tournaments are immensely popular in India, but still focus on old games – Counter

Strike, racing, Warcraft III)

 Competitors and investments – until date about $150 mm in Indian market space

 Zapak has about has 3 mm registered users in about 8 months for its casual zapak.com portal

 Plans to launch Zapak cafes throughout the country and 2 MMOs this year (I from Shanda, other undisclosed)

Level Up success of $15K/month on 2000-2500 CCUs; after $millions invested; revenues largely increased in switch from high subscription to lower item purchases for Ragnorak Online

 SIFY is aggressively retooling its cafes with better BB and plans to launch its own portal

Games2win has 2mm+ registered users for its portal

 Handful (Indyarocks –mobile and casual), Cricketparty.com, Seven Seas, Jump (mobile & casual games)

1)

Competitive Landscape: Appendix

Competition in Online Games (Services and Publishing)

Competitors

I-nrgizer/Acclaim/Others

Zapak

Games2win.com

Indiagames.com

Seven Seas

CricketParty.com

Level Up

SIFY

Kreeda

Other

Core Offering

Outsourcing Services

Casual/Portal/MMO

Game Cafes

Casual/Portal

Racing MMO

Casual/Exent Model

Host of WGC/Tournaments

Casual: women casual MMOG unknown

Ragnorak

A3, GunzOnline, Portal

Game Cafes dance casual MMO design studios, artwork, basic game design

User Base

NA

4 million

3 million

2 million

unknown

1.5 million

24000/day

500/day unknown

NA

Funding History

$100 mm Reliance

$6 mm tom online bought out by Bollywood private private

$10 mm internal

$10 mm

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