An Overview of North Slope
Hydrology and Potential
Response to Climate Change
Presented by:
Amy Tidwell, PhD
Water and Environmental Research Center
University of Alaska Fairbanks
Wildlife Response to Environmental Arctic Change
(WildREACH)
17-18 November 2008
Outline
•
Introduction to the Arctic hydrologic cycle
•
General water balance approach
•
Discussion of seasonal hydrologic features in the Arctic
•
Hydrologic response to climate change
– Scenario I: Increasing air temperature
– Scenario II: Increasing air temperature with increasing precipitation
• Panel discussion
From Kane and Yang, 2004
Winter
Spring
Summer
Sublimation (Es)
Evapotranspiration
Snow (Ps)
Rainfall (PR)
Fall
Sublimation
Snow
Water Balance:
(PS + PR) - (ES + ET) - R = ∆ (Ssurface + Ssoil)
Ps=snow, PR=rain, Es=sublimation, ET=evapotranspiration, R=surface runoff,
Ssoil=soil moisture storage, and Ssurface=surface water storage
Es
Ps
ET
PR
Ssurface + Ssoil
Snow accumulation
Seasonally frozen ground
Permafrost
Output
Input
Water Balance Terms for
Selected Arctic Basins
Water Balance Terms
80100%
70
Storage Change
Summer Runoff
90%
10.0
80%
Average Depth (cm)
Snow Runoff
ET
60
8.0
70%
50
17.9
5.7
Rainfall
SWE
60%
17.8
14.0
40 50%
30
3.4
40%
7.4
30%
24.1
26.2
6.1
20
20%
8.5
10 Change
Storage
10%
Summer Runoff
12.0
11.5
9.5
0 Runoff
0%
Snow
Data sources: Kane et al., 2000; Kane et al., 2004;
Kane et al., 2008.
ET
Map from WERC/UAF
SWE
Rainfall
Imnavait
Imnavait
Upper
Upper
Kuparuk
Kuparuk
Putuligayuk
Putuligayuk
(1985-2003)
(1985-2003)
(1996-2002)
(1996-2002)
(1999-2007)
(1999-2007)
Basin
Basin
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Sublimation (Es)
Evapotranspiration
Snow (Ps)
Rainfall (PR)
Sublimation
Snow
Water Balance:
(PS + PR) - (ES + ET) - R = ∆ (Ssurface + Ssoil)
Ps=snow, PR=rain, Es=sublimation, ET=evapotranspiration, R=surface runoff,
Ssoil=soil moisture storage, and Ssurface=surface water storage
Es
ET
A
Output
Input
F
Ps
PR
B
Active Layer
Thickness
C
D
Ssurface + Ssoil
Snow accumulation
Seasonally frozen ground
I
G
E
J
H
Permafrost
Imnavait Creek
4
3.5
Discharge (m3/s)
3
2.5
Drainage Area = 2.2 km2
Upper Kuparuk River at Dalton Highway
140
120
100
Discharge (m3/s)
Hydrographs for
Selected Basins
and Years
80
Drainage Area = 142 km2
2001 Discharge;
SWE=11.7 cm;
Psumm=22.2 cm
2002 Discharge;
SWE=10.5 cm;
Psumm=29.4 cm
60
40
20
2001 Discharge;
SWE=14.2 cm;
Psumm=20.4 cm
0
2002 Discharge;
SWE=12.6 cm;
Psumm=30.3 cm
14-Apr
13-Jun
12-Aug
11-Oct
2
Putuligayuk River at Spine Road
1.5
80
1
70
0.5
2001 Discharge;
SWE=8.4 cm;
Psumm=7.5 cm
13-Jun
12-Aug
Kane, D.L. and Hinzman, L.D., 2008. Climate data from the
North Slope Hydrology Research project. University of Alaska
Fairbanks, Water and Environmental Research Center. URL:
http://www.uaf.edu/water/projects/NorthSlope/. Fairbanks,
Alaska, variously paged. November, 2008.
Discharge (m3/s)
60
0
14-Apr
Drainage Area = 471 km2
11-Oct
2002 Discharge;
SWE=9.4 cm;
Psumm=13.7 cm
50
40
30
20
10
0
14-Apr
13-Jun
12-Aug
11-Oct
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Sublimation (Es)
Evapotranspiration
Snow (Ps)
Rainfall (PR)
Es
Sublimation
Snow
ET
A
Output
Input
F
Ps
PR
B
Active Layer
Thickness
C
D
Ssurface + Ssoil
Snow accumulation
Seasonally frozen ground
I
G
E
J
H
Permafrost
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Sublimation (Es)
Evapotranspiration
Snow (Ps)
Rainfall (PR)
Sublimation
Snow
↑ Temperature only
↓ Winter energy flux from ground to atmosphere ↑ Summer energy flux from atmosphere to ground
Enhanced active layer development
↑ Potential for mid-winter melt and ice in snow
↑ Soil storage capacity (settlement?)
↑ Evapotranspiration
Geomorphic and vegetation changes
↓ Soil moisture (no ↑ precipitation)
Es
ET
A
Output
Input
F
Ps
PR
B
Active Layer
Thickness
C
D
Ssurface + Ssoil
Snow accumulation
Seasonally frozen ground
I
G
D
J
H
Permafrost
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Sublimation (Es)
Evapotranspiration
Snow (Ps)
Rainfall (PR)
Sublimation
Snow
↑ Temperature, ↑ Precipitation
↓ Winter energy flux from ground to atmosphere ↑ Summer energy flux from atmosphere to ground
Enhanced active layer development
↑ Potential for mid-winter melt and ice in snow
↑ Soil storage capacity (settlement?)
↑ Evapotranspiration
Geomorphic and vegetation changes
Soil moisture change unknown
Es
ET
A
Output
Input
F
PR
B
Active Layer
Thickness
C
D
Ssurface + Ssoil
Snow accumulation
Seasonally frozen ground
?
I
G
E
J
H
Permafrost
References
• Bowling, L.C., D.L. Kane, R.E. Gieck, and L.D. Hinzman, 2003. “The role of surface storage in a lowgradient Arctic watershed.” Water Resources Research, 39(4), 1087.
• Hinzman, L.D. and others, 2005. “Evidence and implications of recent climate change in Northern Alaska
and other arctic regions.” Climatic Change, 72: 251-298.
• Kane, D.L., 1997. “The Impact of Hydrologic Perturbations on Arctic Ecosystems Induced by Climate
Change.” In Global Change and Arctic Terrestrial Systems, Eds. Oechel, Callaghan, Gilmanov, Holten,
Maxwell, Molau, and Sveinbjornsson.
• Kane, D.L., L.D. Hinzman, J.P. McNamara, Z. Zhang, and C.S. Benson, 2000. “An Overview of a Nested
Watershed Study in Arctic Alaska.” Nordic Hydrology, 31: 245-266.
• Kane, D.L., R.E. Gieck, and L.D. Hinzman, 2008. “Water Balance for a Low-Gradient Watershed in
Northern Alaska.” Proceedings, Ninth International Conference on Permafrost, Fairbanks, AK.
• Kane, D.L. and D. Yang (eds), 2004. Northern Research Basins Water Balance. International
Association of Hydrological Sciences. IAHS Publication 290. Wallingford, UK, 271pp.
• McNamara, J.P., D.L. Kane, and L.D. Hinzman, 1998. “An analysis of streamflow hydrology in the
Kuparuk River Basin, Arctic Alaska: a nested watershed approach.” Journal of Hydrology, 206: 39-57.
• Woo, M.K., D.L. Kane, S.K. Carey, and D. Yang, 2008. “Progress in Permafrost Hydrology in the New
Millennium.” Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 19: 237-254.
• Woo, M.K., and X.J. Guan, 2006. “Hydrological Connectivity and Seasonal Storage Change of Tundra
Ponds in a Polar Oasis Environment, Canadian High Arctic.” Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 17:
309-323.
Hydrology Panel
Doug Kane, Water and Environmental Research Center, UAF
Matthew Sturm, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory
Amy Tidwell, Water and Environmental Research Center, UAF
Larry Hinzman, International Arctic Research Center, UAF
Anna Liljedahl, International Arctic Research Center, UAF