Admissions Testing: Predicting
College Success
CRESST
September 2002
Wayne J. Camara
The College Board
Overview
Presentation focuses on…
•
•
•
•
•
Admission Models and Practices
Predictors/Criterion of College Success
Validity and Subgroup Differences
SAT I and SAT II
Changes to SAT in 2005
Importance of Admisson
Factors – 4 year Public
4.5
4
HSGPA/rank
3.5
Admissions test
HS Courses
3
Letters
2.5
Essays
2
Portfolio, Auditions
Interviews
1.5
1
1979
1985
1992
2000
Importance of Admisson
Factors – 4 year Private
4.5
4
HSGPA/rank
3.5
Admissions test
HS Courses
3
Letters
2.5
Essays
2
Portfolio, Auditions
Interviews
1.5
1
1979
1985
1992
2000
Preference in Admissions
Test (4-year institutions)
• 82% of all colleges
require test in 99 vs 86%
in 89-90
• For non-open colleges,
(5%) 91% required test
in 89-90 vs 87% in 99
• Fairtest errors – only 173
of the 390 institutions
listed are truly SAT/ACT
optional.
Annual Survey of Colleges (College Board)
Non-Open Colleges
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 test
Either
none
89-
94- 97-
98-
90
95
99
98
Predictor-Criterion
Relationship: Criteria
Criterion - What outcome do you want to
measure? Is it measurable?
• Predict college success:
• completion (persistence, graduation)
• academic (FGPA, Cum GPA)
• Life success:
• occupational (salary, job title, degrees)
• skills (team work, creativity, leadership)
• community service
• Benefit:
• social / economic mobility/ growth
Average Predictability of Cumulative GPA
By Year (Kunkel et. al. 2002)
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.72
0.70
0.65
0.68 0.68 0.67
0.61
0.76 0.75 0.74
0.65 0.64 0.64
0.60
Year 1
Year 2
0.50
Year 3
Year 4
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
HS
VM
VMH
Four Years of Course Grades by Combined SAT Score
100%
90%
80%
A (3.90-4.30)
70%
A- (3.60-3.89)
B+ (3.30-3.59)
60%
B (2.90-3.29)
B- (2.60-2.89)
50%
C+ (2.30-2.59)
C (1.90-2.29)
40%
C- (1.60-1.89)
D (0.60-1.59)
30%
F (below 0.59)
20%
10%
0%
700 and
below
710-800
810-900
910-1000
10101100
11101200
12101300
13101400
14101500
15101600
Graduation
SAT V + M (Astin et al, 1996)
100%
80%
A
60%
B
40%
C+
20%
0%
700
700-
850-
1000-
1150- > 1300
849
999
1149
1299
365 institutions, 76,000 students
Added value beyond
high school grades
SAT
All
.57
Male
.56
Female
.62
Cumulative .36
HSGPA
.61
.58
.61
.42
Both Increment
.68
.08 (Bridgeman, et. Al., 2000)
.61
.07
.71
.10
.52
.10 (Burton & Ramist 2002)
Persistence (all correlations are uncorrected)
Non-minority.25
Minority
.35
Graduation .29
.34
.44
.33
.36
.03
Added value beyond
high school grades
• Increment of SAT is about .10 above
HSGPA and greatest for African American
students
• HS grades overpredict College grades
for Hispanic (.19) and African American
males (.22) most. They underpredict
grades for white females (-.09)
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Income
NELS Proficiency Levels x
Ethnicity and Income
Math 5
Math 4 or 5
Reading 3
0
20
40
Percent
60
Same Group Differences in
HS Grades and Class Rank
Subgroup
AfricanAmerican
AsianAmerican
Hispanic
White
Mean
High School Grades
A
B
C
Mean High School Rank
18.9
53.2
26.8
Below 90th
C
1.1
11.9
47.5
42.7
7.0
0.0
27.8
24.9
25.7
21.7
30.0
40.3
53.4
47.8
16.1
11.7
0.5
0.3
16.5
23.2
21.5
23.2
28.5
27.3
33.5
26.3
80th
60th
18.8
28.7
Below
60th
40.6
Differences between HS
& College Grades
Subgroup
HS GPA
FGPA
Difference
African
American
Asian
3.18
2.14
1.04
3.58
2.80
.78
Hispanic
3.33
2.37
1.16
White
3.40
2.66
.74
Parental Ed and HSGPA
60
50
40
A
B
C or below
30
53
20
10
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Graduation
Six-year graduation rates: • SAT scores have only
• African Americans (38%) slightly less weight in
predicting
graduation
• Hispanics (45%)
than HS grades.
• Asians (63%)
• Actual effects are
• Whites (56%)
under estimated as
students transfer and
attrite who are in
good standing.
Impact of SAT - Test/Grade
Discrepant Score Analysis
• 68% of students have SAT scores that are highly
consistent with their pattern of grades.
• The remaining 32% of students have discrepant
SAT/grades. Half with higher grades.
Unadjusted correlation of FGPA with SAT/HSGPA
SAT =
HSGPA
HSGPA
Higher
SAT
Higher
SAT
V+M
.457
.379
.452
HSGPA
.462
.356
.464
N = 48,410,
23 colleges
SAT I vs SAT II
FGPA Course Grade
SAT I
.60
.59
HSGPA
.63
.57
SAT II
.62
.57
SAT I + HSGPA
.71
.71
SAT I + II
.63
.63
SAT II + HSGPA
.72
.69
SAT I, II+ HSGPA .72
.73
42,985 students entering 38 colleges in 82 and 85.
Corrected for shrinkage, restriction of range and crit. unrel.
SAT I vs SAT II
• SAT II more selective test takers
• Mean SAT I and II for CA Students taking both:
V+M
white 1200
Latino 1018 (182)
Black 1016 (184)
Asian A 1150 (50)
Writing Math 1c
593
574
506 (87) 500 (74)
509 (84) 487 (87)
540 (53) 581 (-7)
Math 2c 3 SAT II’s
646
1764
572 (74) 1630 (134)
576 (70) 1503 (261)
656 (-10) 1730 (34)
• Correlations:
• SAT I V (SAT II W .79) (SAT II Lit .83)
• SAT I M (SAT II M1C .84) (SAT II M2C .79)
SAT I vs SAT II
Standardized Differences
SAT I
SAT II Writing/
Math IC
SAT II Writing,
Math and 3rd
Asian Amer
.27
.50 / -.11
.12
African Amer
.98
.84 / .93
.95
Latino
.97
.84 / .78
.50
K/C/J
Spanish
Other 3rd test
.31 (4,440)
.69 (3,896)
Latino
Asian Amer
-.47 (3,581)
-
K/C/J = Korean, Chinese, Japanese
.27 (14,359)
SAT I and ACT
• SAT I 138 questions vs ACT 210 questions in
similar time
• SAT two scores (V, M), ACT one score (C, and four
subscores)
• Concordance Study by CB/ETS/ACT (1997)
•
•
•
•
SAT
SAT
SAT
SAT
V+M and ACT Composite r=.92
M and ACT M r =.89
V and ACT Reading or English r=.83
V and SAT M r = .66
• Correlations between SAT I and SAT II are lower
than Correlation between SAT I and ACT
New SAT – Related to College
Skills (March/2005)
• All students take same test – equivalent to current
SAT I
• Three scores (200 – 800 scale) - Critical Reading,
Math Reasoning, & Writing
• Writing includes a 25-minute essay and MC
• Distributed reading and essay available on web
• Math more curriculum-related, retain open ended
items (qc items removed)
• Critical Reading – more passages based on
curriculum (analogies removed)