Patterns and Trends in International Trade of
ICT products
Friedrich von Kirchbach, Chief, Market Analysis Section
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
1
UNCTAD
WTO
ITC
Global forum for the treatment of
development and the interrelated
issues of trade, finance, services,
investment, technology and institutional aspects of enterprise
development involving governments and non-governmental
actors.
Platform for negotiating
multilateral trade rules and
commitments, monitoring
implementation and settlement
of disputes.
Technical cooperation arm of WTO and
UNCTAD for operational enterpriseoriented capacity building, for trade
promotion and export development.
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
2
ITC’sPart
market
analysis
tools
III - Overview
of ITC ’s Market
Analysis Tools
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DETAILED
ANALYTI-
SINGLE-
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DATA ON
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CLIENT
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Full range
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ACCESS DATA
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INFORMATION
Service
(www.intracen.org/mas)
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
3
World market for ICT products
in 2001: Euro 2.2 trillion
Japan
11%
USA
36%
Rest of the
World
24%
*incl. Eastern Europe
Europe*
29%
Source: EITO Update 2001
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
4
World-wide ICT markets
annual growth by region, 2000-2002, %
2000
2001
2002
16
14
13,0
12,4
12
10,4
9,7
10
8
8,2
6,8
8,1
7,0
5,4
6
6,9
6,7
6,7
5,7
5,6
4,7
4
2
0
Western Europe
Source: EITO Update 2001
CID, 26 March 2002
USA
Japan
RoW
World
Market value 2001: 2.151 billion Euro
5
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
National Export Growth vs. International
Demand
Positiv
e
International
demand:
World
Trade
Growth
Underachievers
Champions
Losers in
declining markets
Achievers in
adversity
Negative
Losses
CID, 26 March 2002
Change in world market share Gains
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
6
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
Note: the area of the circles correponds to the export value of the product group for ITC partners. See explanatory sheet for details.
7
Share of developing countries
in world trade of ICT products:
• 25 % of exports
• 35 % of imports
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
8
Assessing national export
performance and competitiveness
by major sectors:
Trade Performance Index
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
9
ITC’s home page
www.intracen.org
Country
Approach
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
10
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
12
Country MAPs
• Trade Performance Index
• National Export TradeMaps
• National Import TradeMaps
• Trade Simulation Model TradeSim
• Reliability of trade data
• Environmental TradeMaps
• Protection in partner countries by
major sectors
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Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
13
Trade Performance Index
The Trade Performance Index comprises a set of 24
quantitative indicators benchmarking the export
performance of 184 countries.
The TPI:
 ranks 14 different product sectors in each
country
 summarizes performance indicators into a
Current Index and a Change Index
 sheds light on comparative and competitive
advantages
 positions the major export sectors of all
countries on a global competitiveness
ladder.
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
14
Trade Performance Current Index:
Electronics, USA
Indicator
Value of net
exports, 2000
Unit
Value
Rank
in 92 countries
US$ b
Per-capita exports, US$/
2000
inhabitant
-21
92
323
23
15
1
Share in world
market, 2000
Per cent
Product
diversification
No of major
products
8
50
Market
diversification
No of major
exp.markets
12
13
Current Index:
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Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
21
15
Trade Performance Index USA
Ranking of international competitiveness in terms of
static indicators (Current Index) and dynamic
indicators (Change Indicator)
Large
sector
Electronics
21
Small sector
CID, 26 March 2002
92th
1st
(worst
Ranking among 92 countries (best)
) Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
16
Change in world market share:
Electronics, USA
Indicator
Unit
Absolut change of per centage
world market
points p.a.
share 96-00
Value
Rank
in 92 countries
0.36
Ranking: Change in
world market share
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Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
4
4
17
Trade Performance Index USA
Ranking of international competitiveness in terms of static
indicators (Current Index) and dynamic indicators (Change in
world market share)
Large
sector
21
Electronics
4
Small sector
92h
(worst
)
CID, 26 March 2002
1st
Ranking among 92 countries (best)
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
18
Trade Performance Change
Index:
Electronics, USA
Indicator
Unit
Value
Rank
Change of world
market share 96-00
per cent p.a.
2.87
32
Trend of import
coverage by exports
per cent p.a
2
39
in 92 countries
Matching dynamics of
correlation
world demand
39
Change in product concentration
diversification
measures
75
Change in market
diversification
58
concentration
measures
Change Index:
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Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
50
19
Trade Performance Index USA
Ranking of international competitiveness in terms of
static indicators (Current Index) and dynamic
indicators (Change Index)
Large
sector
Electronics
20
4
Change Index: 50
Small sector
CID, 26 March 2002
85th
1st
(worst
Ranking among 85 countries (best)
) Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
20
Trade Performance Index: Electronic components
Ranking of international competitiveness in terms of static indicators (Current Index)*
and the change in world market share (percentage points) as well as other dynamic indicators (Change Index)**
Position 1 in the ranking refers to the best performance out of 184 countries
ctor (2000 exports in US$ million)
JAPAN (US$ 84457 m)
GERMANY (US$ 46214 m)
92
93
TAIWAN (US$ 40414 m)
88
SLOVENIA (US$ 977 m)
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5
(1999 :13 )
(Change Index: 16)
1
6
(1999 :6 )
(Change Index: 14)
(1999 :8 )
10
14
85
(1999 :2 )
(1999 :10 )
(Change Index: 72)
4
91
(1999 :4 )
(Change Index: 91)
9
(1999 :16 )
(Change Index: 31)
7
11
BELGIUM-LUX (US$ 6685 m)
AUSTRIA (US$ 4687 m)
6
(Change Index: 75)
IRELAND (US$ 7024 m)
SWEDEN (US$ 5097 m)
(1999 :1 )
(Change Index: 43)
90
ETHERLANDS (US$ 14604 m)
SWITZ.LIECHT (US$ 5409 m)
1
7
KOREA REP. (US$ 31832 m)
ITALY (US$ 14506 m)
(1999 :3 )
(Change Index: 89)
SINGAPORE (US$ 43210 m)
ANCE,MONAC (US$ 22998 m)
2
(Change Index: 33)
81
(1999 :9 )
(Change Index: 53)
3
87
(1999 :5 )
(Change Index: 65)
8
84
13
83
(1999 :7 )
(Change Index: 60)
(1999 :14 )
(Change Index: 54)
12
69
(1999 :11 )
(Change Index: 38)
Patterns
trends
international
trade
Changeand
in world
marketin
share
Current
Indexin IT products
21
Best performance
electronics
A. Changes in trade performance in
absolute terms:
• change in world market share:
Taiwan realized the largest annual increase 96/00
in percentage points, and became the 4th largest
exporter in 00
• change in Current Index 00 to 99:
Overall continuity, exceptions: Singapore from
13 to 5 and France from 2 to 10
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
22
electronics
B. Changes in trade performance in
relative terms:
• total and decomposed relative change
in world market share 96 to 00:
Poland, with exports of $ 2b in 2000, increased its
world market share by an annual 1.6%, consisting of:
+ 10.6 in competitiveness
-
3.0 in initial product specialization
-
1.8 in initial market specialization
-
4.2 in adaptation
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
23
ic
at
or
s
In
d
CANADA
G1 Value of exports ($ 000)
G2 Trend of exports (96-00) p.a.
G3 Share in national export
Ge n e r a l
p r o f ile
Po sit io n in
2000 for
Cu r r e n t
In d e x
Value
12,181,036
Rank (168)**
Value
8,661,147
Rank (92)**
5%
70
8%
57
T ra ns po rt e quipm e nt
Value
66,265,636
Rank (85)**
9%
37
3%
26%
G4 Share in national im port
G5 Average annual change in per capita exports
3%
9%
20%
G6 Relative unit value (w orld average = 1)
G7 Average annual change in relative unit value
1.0
2.6
1.2
0%
8%
1%
P1
Value of net exports ($ 000)
P2
P3
Per capita exports ($/inhabitant)
0%
59
6%
47
8%
31
5,713,654
3
-12,758,468
91
19,548,996
4
391.1
5.19%
13
4
278.1
1.45%
25
16
2127.5
9.56%
2
4
P4 a Product diversification (N° of equivalent products)
P4 b Product spread (concentration)
19
16
8
49
3
50
P5 a Market diversification (N° of equivalent m arkets)
P5 b Market spread (concentration)
3
131
C1
Share in w orld m arket
Sources
Initial geographic specialisation
p.a.
Initial product specialisation
p.a.
Adaptation
p.a.
C2 Trend of im port coverage by exports
C3 Matching w ith dynam ics of w orld dem and
C4 a Change in product diversification (N° of equv.
Change in product spread (concentration)
C4 b products)
13
P
Absolute change of w orld m arket share (% points
p.a.)
Current Index
C
Change Index
A
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37
1
40
3.82%
84
38
1
47
-1.71%
81
44
4.02%
0.46%
82
-1.88%
61
3.60%
15
0.31%
22
6.63%
5
1.29%
83
0.32%
38
-0.59%
55
-1.54%
105
-0.46%
44
-0.27%
29
-4%
112
90
-3%
67
40
1%
46
8
C5 a Change in m arket diversification (N° of equv.
arkets)
Change
in m arket spread (concentration)
C5 b m
In d ic a t o r s
in c lu d e d in
ch a r t
E le c t ro nic c o m po ne nt s
5%
Relative change of w orld m arket share (% p.a.)
Com petitiveness effect p.a.
Ch a n g e
1996-2000
f o r Ch a n g e
In d e x
F re s h f o o d
0.1863%
-1.74%
63
17
14
36
19
15
37
148
51
45
143
53
44
3
-0.0305%
79
0.3363%
1
11
49
10
84
41
19
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
24
electronics
B. Changes in trade performance in
relative terms:
• Change Index:
Philippines comes out on top of the ranking based on
five change indicators, due to
- a 23 % annual increase of its market share
reaching 3.2 % of the world market
- the best ranking concerning specialization in the
most dynamic products in the sector
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Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
25
Results in ICT report
Current role of developing cntries in trade:
• most pronounced in office machinery and
electronic components (in both sectors 5
Asian NIEs among top ten according to
Current TPI) much more limited role of
Europeans (only UK among the top eight)
• much less in telecommunications
equipment (2 NIEs in top 10)
• no developing countries in electrical
machinery
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Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
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Results in ICT report
Changing role of developing countries:
among top ten countries in terms of Change
Index for the four sectors electronic components,
computers, telecommunications equipment and
electrical machinery, most frequently mentioned
are:
• Asian developing countries (14 times)
• Eastern Europe & Russia (11 times)
• Latin America (4 times)
• Africa (1 time)
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Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
27
Detailed assessment of national
trade performance for specific
products:
Interactive TradeMap
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
28
ITC’s Interactive TradeMap
provides...
•
•
•
•
•
•
Value of exports and imports
Quantities
Growth trends
Market shares
Rankings according to a variety of criteria
Tariffs and non-tariff barriers
For each product and partner country in
a fully interactive environment
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Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
29
How?
Interactive TradeMap
Based on COMTRADE
- the United Nations Statistics Division database
- covering 90% of world trade reported by nearly
100 trading nations
- tariff and NTB data provided by 145 countries
directly or through UNCTAD
Covers over 5,000 Harmonized System products
- 200 countries and territories
- includes non-reporting countries using mirror
statistics
Web access with username and password
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
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Limitations
• Trade statistics of uneven quality
• Services not covered
• Up-dating twice a year – time lag
between one and two years
• Product detail only to the HS 6-digit
level
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Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
31
Enhancing the transparency of
market access barriers for trade
policy makers and the business
community:
Market Access Maps
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
32
Basic Features of Market Access Maps
Coverage (four dimensions):
• 145 importing markets
• 220 exporting countries
• Products at the tariff line level
• Protection instruments: MFN ad-valorem and
specific tariffs, tariff quotas, anti-dumping
duties, prohibitions, technical and environmental
norms
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
33
Basic Features of Market Access Maps
Analytical functions:
• Takes into account all regional trading
arrangements
• Calculates ad-valorem equivalents (AVEs)
for combination of ad-valorem and specific
tariffs and tariff quotas
• Allows for aggregation to any level using
trade weighting based on imports of
reference groups of countries to avoid
distortions
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Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
34
E-Trade Bridge for SMEs
ITC
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
35
Program thrust
• Building national capacities to increase awareness
and e-competence of SME managers in e-trade
• Developing e-products and services for SME’s and
trade support institutions
• Securing exchange and cooperation among national
and international e-trade related initiatives
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
36
Components for building national
capacities
E-trade bridge kick-off meeting
Strategy designers and managers training programme
National training capacity building programme
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
37
Kenya Kick-off Meeting
Kick-off Meeting Phases
1. National e-trade bridge task force
creation
2. Preparation of e-map and e-balance
sheet
3. Stake-holders deliberations
4. National e-bridge platform installation
5. E-action plan preparation
6. Win With the Web program launching
7. WWW task group training
8. SMEs screening
9. Awareness campaign launching
10. "Best practice" cases promotion
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
38
ITC PRACTICAL GUIDES
Answering Exporters’ Frequently Asked Questions
• Trade Secrets: The Export Answer Book
• How to Approach Banks: A guide for exporters
• Secrets of Electronic Commerce: A guide for SMEs
• Trade in Services: An answer book for SMEs
• International Trade Rules: An answer book for SMEs
• Export Quality Management: An answer book for SMEs
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
39
For more information, please contact us
at ITC
www.intracen.org
or under
MAS@intracen.org
Thank you for your attention.
CID, 26 March 2002
Patterns and trends in international trade in IT products
40