Increasing Wind Energy Penetration
through Improved Forecasting
Mrinal Kumar
Assistant Professor, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
University of Florida
http://www.mae.ufl.edu/~mrinalkumar
mrinalkumar@ufl.edu
Revisiting Sustainability
• “Sustainability” as a model for development was first proposed in 1969
SOCIAL
PROGRESS
DEVELOPMENT
ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
SUSTAINABLE
Revisiting Sustainability
ECONOMIC
SOCIAL
SOCIAL
ECONOMIC
ENVIRONMENTAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
In theory…
In reality…
Revisiting Sustainability
ECONOMIC
SOCIAL
SOCIAL
ECONOMIC
ENVIRONMENTAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
In theory…
What we must do…
Revisiting Sustainability
According to the EPA:
Sustainability is based on a simple principle: Everything that we need for our
survival and well-being depends, either directly or indirectly, on our natural
environment. Sustainability creates and maintains the conditions under
which humans and nature can exist in productive harmony, that permit
fulfilling the social, economic and other requirements of present and future
generations.
Revisiting Sustainability
According to the EPA:
Sustainability is based on a simple principle: Everything that we need for our
survival and well-being depends, either directly or indirectly, on our natural
environment. Sustainability creates and maintains the conditions under
which humans and nature can exist in productive harmony, that permit
fulfilling the social, economic and other requirements of present and future
generations.
The Lowdown on Wind Energy
According to the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA):
“Without doubt wind power has become a pillar of energy systems in
many countries and is recognized as a reliable and affordable source
of electricity”
The Lowdown on Wind Energy
 China overtook the US in total installed
capacity in 2010
 About 55% of total installed capacity in
world is in Eastern Europe
 About 55% of new installed capacity
(~past 2 years) is in Asia
 For some perspective, it is important
to add in the “size” of the country as
well
The Lowdown on Wind Energy
Wind Electricity Capacity Normalized by Country Size:
#12
#30 (!)
??
 There is tremendous potential for increasing the penetration of wind power in the US
 If the entire world had the same turbine density (pu area) as Denmark, the world production of
electricity would be 12,000 GW: far more than the entire world’s needs…
The Lowdown on Wind Energy
FACTS from the WWEA Reports (2010-2012):
o About 3% of global electricity demand is supplied by wind power
o 100 countries and regions use wind power for electricity generation
o Factoring in the size of the country, USA ranks 20th in installed capacity per unit
gross GDP, 12th in capacity per person and 30th in capacity per unit land area
o Smaller countries have shown incredible progress given their resources
o Policy uncertainty in major markets, notably the US represent the biggest
barrier in increased penetration of wind power
o It will be crucial to move renewable energy to the center of the debate at UN
Climate Change Conferences
The Lowdown on Wind Energy
Six major drivers for mid-term and long term
prospects of wind power
1. Ongoing debate on climate change, search for emission free technologies
2. Depletion of fossil and nuclear fuels
3. Role Models: Increasing number of regions and countries demonstrating that
100% renewable energy is possible
4. Increasing awareness of the hazards of nuclear power, e.g. Fukushima
5. Contribution of wind energy to the “three pillars” of sustainability, namely
ecologically, economically and socially
6. Further technological developments, e.g. forecasting, storage
Share of Electricity Generation Sources: USA
Net Generation (GWH)
2000
1000
42%
25%
0
COAL
19%
NATURAL
NUCLEAR
GAS
8%
HYDRO
3%
WIND
3%
ALL OTHER
Wind share in US is approximately same as world average
Denmark leads the world with 21% wind share
Potential for Wind Derived Electricity: USA
USA
DENMARK
Ongoing Project
Project Title: An Integrated Hybrid Forecasting Framework of Increased Wind
Power Penetration
Funded by: NSF
Grant Type: CAREER Grant
Duration: Feb 2013 – Jan 2018 (5 YEARS)
PI: Mrinal Kumar, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
Proposed Outreach Activities:
 Sustainable Energy Professional Development Program (with CPET)
 Renewable Energy Design Challenge (with CPET)
Project Details
Main technical challenges in harnessing wind energy:
o Wind flow is highly unpredictable due to inherent uncertainties
o Electricity storage is inefficient and still impractical
Objective of project:
To develop the next generation of forecasting algorithms for
accurate characterization of uncertainty in wind
Importance of project:
Will help reduce the risk associated with wind, thereby facilitating
its reliable integration in the electricity grid
Project Details
HOW DOES THE ELECTRICITY MARKET WORK?
How does the power grid work?
power source
load
srpnet.com
A basic electrical circuit
Yet another circuit: though much more complex…
Project Details
HOW DOES THE ELECTRICITY MARKET WORK?
How does the power grid work?
Electricity trading done by placing bids,
e.g. DAY-AHEAD MARKET
 The power grid is basically one large electrical circuit
 Power source is the generation side (coal, wind, etc) ≈ SUPPLY
Power load is the consumer side (residential, commercial etc) ≈ DEMAND
 SUPPLY must continuously match DEMAND (else outages occur)
 Large scale STORAGE is INFEASIBLE
 Power must therefore be generated real time  RELIABILITY is CRUCIAL
 Wind is inherently INTERMITTENT  how to integrate it in grid with LOW RISK??
Project: Technical Modules
KEY: Increase reliability by improved forecasting
 MODELING of Wind Dynamics:
 Turbulence
 Orography, terrain roughness
 Local farm effects, e.g. shadowing
 UNCERTAINTY CHARACTERIZATION:
 Nonlinear non-Gaussian uncertainty quantification
 High dimensional Fokker-Planck solvers
 Randomized Markov chain particle algorithms
 INTEGRATION with Wind Farm data:
 Incorporate real data into analysis
 Collaborate with wind farms, NCAR and NREL
Project: Technical Modules
Uncertainty in physical systems: a simple example
Initial probability
density function
Project: Technical Modules
Uncertainty in physical systems:
Example 1 of uncertainty propagation
Example 2 of uncertainty propagation
Example 3 of uncertainty propagation
Example 4 of uncertainty propagation
Example 5 of uncertainty propagation
Project: Outreach Activities
AIM: In collaboration with CPET, create and execute a “Sustainable Energy
Professional Development Program” (SEPDP)
PURPOSE: To train high school teachers in the area of sustainable energy in
general and wind energy in particular for:
o Increasing awareness about the challenges of wind energy, esp uncertainty
o Encouraging new leadership in the push towards sustainability
EXPECTED OUTCOME:
o Trained teachers enrich high school curriculum and educate thousands
of students about relevant topics
o Trained teachers put together a team to participate in Challenge-RED
Project: Outreach Activities
SEPDP DETAILS:
 5 day training program
 2 sessions per day
 Morning Session:
•
•
Interactive presentation sessions for delivery of main material covering
sustainability, energy, power generation, wind, uncertainty
Discussion on technical, socio-economic, political, environment aspects
 Afternoon Session:
• Lab sessions, interaction with graduate students
• Discussions on problem solving techniques, the scientific method
• Designed exercises
Project: Outreach Activities
Challenge-RED:
• After returning to their schools, trained teachers will put together a team
of 5 students to participate in a Renewable Energy Design Challenge
• Challenge-RED will be an year-long inter-school design challenge, held as
an after-school club activity
• Each team will have a UF based mentor (grad or undergrad student)
Announcing the First UFL/CPET
High School
Renewable Energy Design Challenge
The Challenge: Design a comprehensive plan to maximize the use of
renewable and green technology in your school
Or some
number…
The Constraint: Your plan must it within a $10,000 budget
The Competition: Other high schools from your area
The Payoff:
ü A chance to present your team’s design in the University of Florida design
symposium
ü Winning team gets to implement their design in practice
ü An opportunity to discover and learn hands-on how modern, innova ve and
green technology is changing the face of our society.
General Guidelines:
·
·
·
·
Trained mentors from your school as well as the University of Florida will guide your team
during the competition.
You are required to propose innovative ideas to minimize the dependence of your school on
non-renewable power. Your proposal must it within the prescribed budget. There are no
other limitations.
Members of all teams will receive participation certi icates as well as other incentives.
Mentors will be trained during summer-2013. Teams must be formed by October 1, 2013. Design
phase will be held between October 15, 2013 and October 14, 2014. Presenta on of final designs
will be held in December, 2013.
Points of Contact:
1. Dr. Mrinal Kumar, Assistant Professor (Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering)
306 Building MAE-A, UFL Campus. Phone: (352) 392-0886. mrinalkumar@ufl.edu
2. Dr. Mary Jo Koroly, Director: Center for Pre-Collegiate Educa on and Training, University of Florida
326, Yon Hall, UFL Campus. Phone: (352) 392-7685. Email: korolymj@ufl.edu
CHALLENGE-RED
FLYER
Project: Outreach Activities
SAMPLE TIMELINE: SEPDP + Challenge-RED
July 2014
SEPDP
September
2014
Challenge-RED
Team
formation
March 2015
July 2015
Midcourse
Meeting 1
Midcourse
Meeting 2
November
2015
Final
Presentations
NEW
SEPDP
Cycle
Tentative Curriculum Content for SEPDP
1
Sustainability in Electricity Generation
Operation of the Electricity Market
2
Wind Energy: Worldwide Status Quo
3
4
5
6
7
Electricity Generation from Wind Turbines
Challenges of Wind: Technical/Social/Political
Effect of Uncertainty on Engineering Systems
Forecasting Techniques and New Developments
Thank You!
Questions…
Comments…
FACTS from the WWEA 2010-2012 Reports
7. Policy uncertainty in major markets, notably the US represent the biggest barrier in
increased penetration of wind power
8. It will be crucial to move renewable energy to the center of the debate at UN Climate
Change Conferences
9. In USA, the main source of stagnation is regulatory uncertainty and lack of focus on
renewable energy.
10. In developing countries, there is a massive policy gap and not enough stability and
reliability in the market framework, next to lack of financial resources
11. While more and more political leaders declare their support for renewable and in
particular wind power, less and less is seen in actual implementation
Amount: 2.3¢/kWh for wind, geothermal, closed-loop biomass;
1.1¢/kWh for other eligible technologies. Generally applies to first 10
years of operation.
FACTS from the WWEA 2010-2012 Reports
10. In developing countries, there is a massive policy gap and not enough stability and
reliability in the market framework, next to lack of financial resources
11. While more and more political leaders declare their support for renewable and in
particular wind power, less and less is seen in actual implementation
Amount: 2.3¢/kWh for wind, geothermal, closed-loop biomass;
1.1¢/kWh for other eligible technologies. Generally applies to first 10
years of operation.
Project: Outreach Activities
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Sustainability
Basics of energy and electricity
Various sources of electricity: Renewable and non-renewable
Operation of the electricity market
Wind Energy Essentials
6. Basics of Energy and Electricity
7. Different Types of Sources of Electricity
8. Renewable and Non-Renewable Power
9. Operations of the Electricity Market
10. Wind Power – Basics: Wind, Turbines
11. Wind Power – Issues: Technical (reiability, storage, uncertainty, etc)
12. Wind Power – Issues: Political
13. Wind Forecasting – Types, Methods