Fleet Numerical Meteorology & Oceanography Center
FNMOC Operational Aerosol Modeling and Derived Products
23WAP/19NWP
June 2009
Charles E. Skupniewicz1
Torsten Duffy1
Douglas L. Westphal2
Cynthia A. Curtis2
Ming Liu2
1 Operations Department, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center
Monterey, California, USA
2 Marine Meteorology Division, Naval Research Laboratory
Monterey, California, USA
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
FNMOC Models and Applications
Ocean Acoustic
Forecasting
Aircraft Routing
Visibility/Dust
Forecasts
Automated High
Seas / Wind Warnings
Aerosol
Models
Optimum Track
Ship Routing
Target Weapon
Systems
Ocean
Models
Global
Model
Electro-Optical
Forecasts
Mesoscale
Models
Search and
Rescue
Ice Forecasts
CEEMS
Ensemble
Models
Tropical Cyclone
Forecasts
Fleet Numerical…
Ballistic Wind
Computations
Long-Range
Planning
WRIP
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
2
Impact of Aerosol Plumes on Navy Activities
Chinese Dust and Korean Smoke, 8 April, 2000
Korea
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Navy Aerosol Modeling:
Different Goals / Different Approaches
Climate Approach: Utilize first principles
• Concerned with climate change and drift
• Low-resolution weather
• Theoretically based
• Trace gasses, chemistry
• Aerosol direct, indirect, and semi-direct effects
• Produce monthly or seasonal averages of column integrated
properties, e.g. AOD
• Derive sensitivities
Navy Forecasting Approach: Pragmatic
• Concerned with onset and cessation of events
• High-resolution weather
• More diagnostic and empirically based
• Aerosol direct effects
• Produce instantaneous forecasts of visibility
• Surface-centric
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Navy Aerosol Forecasting Approach
- Predict events as weather phenomena emphasizing sources and transport
- Simulate aerosols that impact visibility:
dust
smoke
sea salt
sulfate
- Develop operational capability (practical)
- Utilize real-time data streams
- Use nested models to cover the large range of scales
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
NAAPS: Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System
Purpose:
Status:
Input:
Species:
Units:
Horizontal resolution:
Vertical resolution:
Output Filter:
Forecasts aerosol concentrations
Operational, 4X day
NOGAPS, dust source DB, FLAMBE (smoke),
MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)
Dust, Smoke, Sulfate, SO2, Sea salt
Mass concentration
1 degree, 360 X 180 grid
20 m, 200 m inc. to 2 km, 1 km inc. to 16 km
FAROP (Forecast of Aerosol Radiative and Optical Properties)
Output:
Visibility, AOD, extinction, scattering, asymmetry
parameter, phase function, species partition for extinction
Distribution:
Ocean data analysis (SST), tactical decision aids,
forecaster web products, customer download (GRIB)
2007, Witek, M. L., P. J. Flatau, P. K. Quinn, and D. L. Westphal, Global sea-salt modeling: Results and validation against
multicampaign shipboard measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D08215, doi:10.1029/2006JD007779.
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
FLAMBE: Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions
Purpose: Determine real-time smoke fluxes
Input:
GOES, MODIS
Output: Fire parameters:
Location (lat, lon)
Smoke flux, g m -2 s -1
Horizontal res.:GOES: 4 km; MODIS: 1 km
Temporal res.: GOES: 30 min., MODIS: 2X Day
6 May, 2003
Next step: use foreign geostationary satellites
MODIS Fires, 3 May ,2003
Smoke Flux, 3 May, 2003
Fire detections for 2006092012
2004, Reid, J. S., E. M. Prins, D. L. Westphal, C. C. Schmidt, K. A. Richardson, S. A.
Christopher, T. F. Eck, E. A. Reid, C. A. Curtis, and J. P. Hoffman: Real-time monitoring of
South American smoke particle emissions and transport using a coupled remote
sensing/box-model approach, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L06107, doi:10.1029/2003GL018845.
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Dust Source Database (DSD)
Version
NAAPS
NAAPS
Area
Global
Global
Data sources
USGS
USGS, TOMS AI, and surface wx reports
Status
FY99
FY00
DSD v0.1
DSD v1.1
East Asia
East Asia
USGS, maps, reports, and sfc. wx. reports
DSD including DEP
FY04
4Q FY09
DSD v1.2
DSD v1.2.8
SW Asia
SW Asia
DSD including DEP
Updates based on field reports and DEP
FY03
FY08
DSD v1.3
N. Africa
DSD including DEP
FY10
DSD v0.1
Fleet Numerical…
DSD v1.1
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
NAVDAS-AOD: NRL Atmospheric Variational Data
Assimilation System – Aerosol Optical Depth
Purpose:
Data assimilation for aerosol optical depth
(3-d Var)
Status:
Operational 3Q09, 4x daily
Input:
NRL Level 3 MODIS Over-Ocean AOD
(6-h data window)
Next step: Over-land and CALIPSO
Future input: NPP, NPOESS, AVHRR, MetOp, MSG, MTSAT, AATSR,
GOES-R
Output:
Aerosol analysis and: 3-d distribution of four species
error statistics
Temporal resolution: 3 hourly
Distribution: NAAPS and FAROP; web
2008, Zhang, J., J. S. Reid, D. L. Westphal, N. L. Baker, and E. J. Hyer, A system for operational aerosol optical depth data
assimilation over global oceans, J. Geophys. Res., 113, doi:10.1029/2007JD009065.
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Data Assimilation Methodology
1) Convert NAAPS mass
concentration to aerosol
optical depth
r =.83
NAAPS
r =.69
2) Two-D variational
assimilation of the optical
depth field
MODIS
MODIS
3) Convert optical depth to
NAAPS three-D mass
concentration
(ill-posed; simple conditional
scaling scheme used)
Next step: 4D-VAR
Fleet Numerical…
NAAPS AOD
(no assimilation)
NAAPS AOD
(w/ assimilation)
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
NAAPS Validation against AERONET
• (a) AERONET versus NAAPS for 5month (January –May 2006) NAAPS
without data assimilation
• (b) AERONET versus NAAPS for 5month (January–May 2006) NAAPS run
with AOD assimilation
2008, Zhang, J., J. S. Reid, D. L. Westphal, N. L. Baker, and E. J. Hyer, A system for operational aerosol optical depth data
assimilation over global oceans, J. Geophys. Res., 113, doi:10.1029/2007JD009065.
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Current Real-Time Verification of NAAPS
Optical Depth →
Sede Boker, Israel, February 13 – March 4, 2007
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
FAROP: Forecast of Aerosol Radiative and Optical Properties
Purpose:
Status:
Input:
Calculates Optical Properties
Operational, 4X day
NOGAPS, NAAPS
Physics
1 .06 µm Extinction
Extinction (1/km)
0.012
0.008
Extinction:
Mass extinction efficiencies
with RH effects for sulfate, smoke, and salt
Scattering:
Mass scattering efficiencies
Asymmetry parameter: Measurements and theory
Phase function:
Heney-Greenstein function
Optical depth:
Vertical integral of extinction
Slant path range:
Contrast transmittance
0.004
200
500
900
0.000
0
3
6
9
12
15
Forecast Time
18
21
1000
24
27
Pressure (mb)
Output
3D:
Column:
Frequencies:
visibility, extinction (km-1), scattering (km-1),
asymmetry parameter, phase function,
species partition for extinction
on pressure/flight levels
AOD (visible) for each species
19 wavelengths, 5 bands in UV, Vis, NIR, MWR and IR
Work in progress: performance surfaces - slant path visual range (nm)
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
NAAPS Forecast Example
February 2007 Optical Depth
14
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Surface Visibility Example
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
MCSST Screening with NAAPS
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Tactical Mission Support
Detection Ranges / Best Attack
Axis
( FOVs)
Extinction, scattering, asymmetry
parameter, phase function, species
partitioning used to calculate slant
path transmissivity, as a function of
- Altitude /Sensor/Target
- Field Of View
- Probability of Detection
Thermal Crossover Times / Polarity
(for multiple targets)
Uses realistic
target models and
backgrounds
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Regional Model (COAMPS) Dust Example
MODIS DEP
0634 UTC 10 October, 2001
COAMPS 31-h forecast of
dust mass load (µg m-2)
0700 UTC 10 October, 2001
DSD allows prediction of individual plumes
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
FNMOC Operational Aerosol Modeling and Derived Products
Questions?
Fleet Numerical…
Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…