India Energy Conference 2008 Product Pricing October 3, 2008 PwC Transport Fuel Prices in India vis-à-vis Others Countries price fuels for reasons like collection of revenue or restricting use for environmental control. Many countries price fuels more than India. UK Turkey Turkey Netherlands France Korea, South Netherlands Germany Hong Kong Israel Australia Brazil Georgia India Brazil Pakistan Korea, North Armenia Cambodia Australia India Sri Lanka Tajikistan Georgia Nepal Jordan USA Uzbekistan Russian Federation Tajikistan Thailand Russian Federation Diesel Price Nov 2006 in US Cent per Litre Singapore China Kyrgyz Republic Gasoline Price Nov 2006 in US Cent per Litre Lebanon Thailand China Vietnam Vietnam Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Jordan Syria Azerbaijan Malaysia Oman UAE Kuw ait Oman Qatar Kuwait Syria Qatar Iran Iran Turkmenistan Turkmenistan 0 50 100 Source : GTZ, International Fuel Prices 2007 Product Pricing & Subsidies PetroFed & PricewaterhouseCoopers 150 0 50 100 150 October 2008 Slide 2 Comparison of fuel prices across countries India passes on less price to consumers than in developed world. Worst, the oil companies recover much less out of that. Ex-tax Price & Taxes [Q1 2008] Gasoline Diesel UK Italy Italy Germany Germany UK France France Spain Spain Japan Japan Canada Canada USA India India USA 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 0 0.5 (USD per litre) Ex-tax price Product Pricing & Subsidies PetroFed & PricewaterhouseCoopers 1 1.5 (USD per litre) 2 Tax component Source: IEA Statistics Energy Prices and Taxes: First Quarter 2008 Note :The term Gasoline as used here refers to the Regular Unleaded Gasoline. October 2008 Slide 3 2.5 Comparison of fuel prices- India and China Petrol RSP has not increased with increase in crude prices due to lowdegree of pass-through. China, however, has much better pass-through ratio. Units India China Retail selling price of Gasoline (2004) USD per litre 0.74 0.39 Retail selling price of Gasoline (2008) USD per litre 1.18 1.43 USD per litre 0.21 0.21 USD per litre 0.75 0.75 Change in Retail selling price of Gasoline (2004-2008) % 58 267 Change in Retail selling price of Crude oil (2004-2008) % 256 256 0.23 1.04 Fob Crude Oil Price (Dubai ) (2004) Fob Crude Oil Price (Dubai ) (2008) Pass-through ratio Source: IEA Statistics Energy Prices and Taxes: First Quarter 2008; PPAC-Oil Prices and Taxes, GoI(2008) Product Pricing & Subsidies The pass-through ratio is the ratio obtained by dividing the % change in RSP of gasoline during the period 2004-08 by the % change in crude oil price for the period 2004-08 PetroFed & PricewaterhouseCoopers October 2008 Slide 4 Comparison of fuel prices- India and China In case of Diesel as well, China has not hesitated from passing on the cost of crude oil to consumers. Units India China Retail selling price of Diesel (2004) USD per litre 0.48 0.40 Retail selling price of Diesel (2008) USD per litre 0.81 1.08 USD per litre 0.21 0.21 USD per litre 0.75 0.75 Change in Retail selling price of Diesel (2004-2008) % 69 169 Change in Retail selling price of Diesel (2004-2008) % 256 256 0.27 0.66 Fob Crude Oil Price (Dubai ) (2004) Fob Crude Oil Price (Dubai ) (2008) Pass-through ratio Source: IEA Statistics Energy Prices and Taxes: First Quarter 2008; PPAC-Oil Prices and Taxes, GoI(2008) Product Pricing & Subsidies The pass-through ratio is the ratio obtained by dividing the % change in RSP of diesel during the period 2004-08 by the % change in crude oil price for the period 2004-08 PetroFed & PricewaterhouseCoopers October 2008 Slide 5 Burden sharing mechanism Recent BKC pricing committee report has proposed to enlarge the ambit of stakeholders to share the burden and insulate consumers. STAKEHOLDERS CENTRAL GOVT STATE GOVT. OIL COMPANIES CONSUMERS Customs Duty Sales Tax Upstream NOC/ Nomination block PDS Kerosene Subsidised Excise Duty GST (?) Private players Pre NELP blocks LPG Subsidised Direct taxes Pollution Cess (from Feb 2008) Private players (?) NELP blocks Petrol, Diesel Controlled price/ Capped Subsidy Metro Cess Refineries & Marketing Public sector Other Petro-products Free market price Oil Bonds Product Pricing & Subsidies PetroFed & PricewaterhouseCoopers Refineries & Marketing (Private sector) October 2008 Slide 6 Burden sharing mechanism Assistance from Centre is approaching limits and States do need revenues. The imperative is to take tough decision to pass on to consumers. 50000 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 Rs Crore 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 State Upstream OMCs Dealers Centre Rs Crore 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 Product Pricing & Subsidies Source: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), GoI (2008) PetroFed & PricewaterhouseCoopers October 2008 Slide 7 Conclusions For healthy growth of oil industry infrastructure and competitive market, GoI must enact milestones for moving to free market pricing in next 3 to 5 years. • Allow economic value of fuels to be seen in prices; • Bring fuels under classical VAT and in future under GST; • Subsidize BPL families through direct subsidy mechanism; • OMCs be relieved of financial burden; • Agree to market-determined fuel pricing; and • Legislate roadmap to market pricing through. Product Pricing & Subsidies PetroFed & PricewaterhouseCoopers October 2008 Slide 8 Thank you © 2008 PricewaterhouseCoopers. 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