Islamic Fundamentalist
Terrorism
“If there is a single power the West underestimates, it is the
power of collective hatred.” Ralph Peters, 1999.
For More info see…
• Imperial Hubris: Why the West is Losing the War
on Terror, Michael Scheuer
• Through Our Enemies' Eyes: Osama bin Laden,
Radical Islam, and the Future of America, Revised
Edition, Michael Scheuer
• The Trouble With Islam Today, Irshad Manji
• The 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the
National Commission on the Terrorist Attacks
Upon the United States
• The Great War for Civilisation: The Conquest of
the Middle East, Robert Fisk
• The Looming Tower: Al Qaeda and the Road to
9/11, Lawrence Wright
Terrorism
• The unlawful use or
threatened use of force or
violence to intimidate or
coerce societies or
governments, often for
ideological or political
reasons.
• The unlawful use of force or
violence against persons or
property to intimidate or coerce
a government, the civilian
population, or any segment
thereof, in furtherance of
political or social objectives
(FBI)
• Potentially politically loaded
term
• One person’s “terrorist” is
another’s “freedom fighter”
• Terrorism most clearly defined
by two characteristics
• Combatants do not
represent a state
• Combatants deliberately
target civilians
• Terrorism & terrorists violate
int’l rules of war
Popular Beliefs and Misconceptions
about Terrorism
• There is a widespread, but probably incorrectly
belief that:
• Terrorists are psychotic or mentally ill
• Terrorists suffer personality disorders
• Terrorist violence is the result of personal frustration,
or economic deprivation
• Terrorist violence is a reaction to personal grievances,
including personal humiliation, anger, or shame
• Terrorists are victims of physical or psychological
coercion from mastermind recruiters
("brainwashing")
Terrorism as Strategy
• Terrorism as weapon in a strategy
• Terrorist attacks = form of strategic communication
• Terrorism is not new
• Terrorism is not merely religious: 1980 Bologna, Munich
attacks; LTTE (Sri Lanka)
“You have to be lucky everyday – We only have to be lucky
once”
- IRA Bomber
The Tactics of Terrorism
• Six tactics of terrorism:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Bombing (most common)
Hijacking
Arson
Assault
Kidnapping
Hostage Taking
• Weapons of mass destruction?
Effects of Terror
•
•
•
•
•
•
Economy
Each and every individual
Irrational in nature
Decreases any feeling of security
Drains resources
Places whole country on alert:
• ?overreaction
• ?False sense of security or irrelevant
Some Strategic Objectives of
Terrorism
• Recognition: Gaining national or international recognition for their cause;
recruiting new personnel; raising funds; demonstrating their strength
• Coercion: Force a desired behavior of an individual or government
• Intimidation: Prevent individuals, groups, or governments from acting
• Provocation: Provoking overreaction by a government to the attack on
symbolic targets or personnel, thereby gaining sympathy for their cause.
• Insurgency support: Forcing the government to overextend itself in dealing
with the threat, thereby allowing the insurgency to gain support and commit
further attacks against the government.
Terrorism Is Theatre
As stated by Brian Jenkins - terrorism
expert - terrorist acts are often deliberately
spectacular, designed to rattle and influence
a wide audience, beyond the victims of the
violence itself.
Television and Terrorism: A Cozy
Relationship
• Over the years, several studies have pointed to
the close relationship between terrorism and
television
• The purpose of television news
• News programming provides information,
but it is also designed to keep audiences
watching
• One of the purposes is to keep the audience
primed with emotion and excitement
• Terrorism is perfect for this scenario
because it is so dramatic
Television and Terrorism: A Cozy
Relationship
• Basic elements of television drama
• Viewers are encouraged to “stay tuned”
• The station provides an expert interpreter
• The reports give the illusion that somehow
the audience and be in control of the
situation
The Media as a Force Multiplier
• American media and Arab media
• America broadcasted its versions of truth
both domestically and abroad, and
American news has always been selfabsorbed
• In the 1990s a new Arab television network,
al Jazeera, began broadcasting news from
an Arab perspective
The Media as a Force Multiplier
•
Terrorists use the media to reach audiences in a new
way
• At first, terrorists reached audiences with drama
• As time went on, terrorists realized that hostage
dramas were made for television
• If terrorists could successfully manipulate the
situation, they could portray both hostages and
themselves as victims while police and military
forces appeared to be aggressors
The Media as a Force Multiplier
•
The Internet as a force multiplier
• The Internet is one of the most important force
multipliers easily available to terrorists
• The Internet is a powerful tool for opposition
forces in authoritarian regimes
• Terrorists run their own websites, sometimes
hack into exiting sites to broadcast propaganda
videos, and also imbed pixels in legitimate
websites to transmit secret communications
Security Forces vs. Reporters
•
Security forces conflicting with the media
• Terrorists want to use the media as a
psychological weapon, while governments seek
to harness the power of the media for social
control
• Law enforcement and military goals conflict
directly with the needs of the media
• Officially, police and security forces recognize
the media’s right to report information, but they
develop elaborate plans to control reporting
Security Forces vs. Reporters
• Points of views about terrorism and the
media
• Some members and supporters of the
press see the media as a quasiconstitutional force keeping the
government in check
• Some want to limit press coverage
during terrorist events
• The media may exploit terrorism, but
they rarely convey messages favorable
Security Forces vs. Reporters
• Terrorist theater
• The media is filled with action and it is
entertaining
• However, research suggests that the
coverage of terrorism is not helpful to
terrorist groups
• Reporting terrorist events increases the
public’s knowledge about terrorism, but
builds little sympathy for terrorists
Does Reporting Make Terrorism
Contagious?
• The Internet and the contagion effect
• Contagion is magnified when rumors are
spread through e-mails, and websites
• Copycat effect
• The greatest proponents of contagion
theory argue that media reporting,
especially television, leads to a copycat
effect
• The reason is that media reports
encourage people to transform dark
thoughts into reality
Censorship Debates
• Three choices when it comes to freedom of
the press and terrorism
• To assume a laissez-faire, or hands-off,
attitude
• Censorship
• Self-regulation
Terrorism is a Political Act
• Creates extreme fear and anxiety in a target
group larger than immediate victims
• “Extra-normal violence in a symbolic act”
• Specific victims have no particular significance
to terrorist
Terrorism is Not Irrational
• Terrorist use logic that links
• Goals
• Objectives
• Strategy
States Sponsoring Terrorism
Today
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Iran
Iraq
Syria
Sudan
Libya
N. Korea
Cuba
State Sponsored Terrorism
Hizballah receives backing and assistance
from the Governments of Iran and Syria.
• IRAN shaped Hizballah’s ideology, gave it political backing and
helped build its operational capabilities. Iran currently continues to
support Hizballah terrorism, by providing it with training and
weapons, financial aid and assistance for carrying out terror attacks.
• SYRIA supports and trains Hizballah and allows it to build its
infrastructure under Syrian auspices. Hizballah is used as a political
tool against Israel by the Syrian president.
• LEBANON provides a territorial base where Hizballah can
freely operate and advance its terrorist infrastructure.
State Sponsored Terrorism
Hizballah’s Arsenal of Weapons
Type of Weapons
Quantity
Range
Target
(estimate)
Mortars
82 mm
120 mm
160 mm
Dozens of mortars, thousands of
mortar bombs
3000 m
5700 m
8000 m
Israeli towns and
cities
Rocket Launchers
FAJR 3
FAJR 5
Several dozen
43 km
75 km
Into the Heart of
Israel
107 mm
122 mm
Unknown launchers; thousands of
rockets
8.3 km
Long-range rocket: 20.4 km
Short-range rocket: 11 km
Dozens
1300 m (est.)
military
122 mm
130 mm
155 mm
Dozens of guns;
Thousands of shells
11.8 km – 24 km
2.75 km
18km
Israeli civilians and
towns
SAGGER
Millan
Fagot
Several hundred missiles of all
types
1000-3000 m
300-2000 m
300-2000 m
Tanks
Recoilless guns
Artillery Guns
Antitank Missiles
Tow
Antiaircraft
SA-7
14.5 mm
23 mm
57mm
A. 600-3750 m
B. 1000-3000 m
A few of each kind
1.5-1.9 km
2500-600m
3000-1400m
5000-4000m
Aircraft
Terrorism is a Political Act
• A weapon of psychological purposes
• Premeditated, politically motivated violence
perpetrated against noncombatant targets by
subnation or clandestine agents usually
intended to influence an audience
Terrorism in the USA
•
•
The first incident of antifederal behavior came
shortly after the American Revolutionary War
• 1791- The Whiskey Rebellion
The Civil War
• Southerners were fighting to keep the
power of local government
• KKK-Purpose: to intimidate supporters of
Reconstruction
•
Abortion Clinics
Ecoterrorism in the US
• Earth Liberation Front (ELF)
• ELF migrated from Europe to the United
States
• The alliance has been responsible for
more than six hundred criminal acts
since 1996
• Its tactics include sabotage, tree spiking,
property damage, intimidation, and
arson
Ecoterrorism, Animal Rights, and
Genetic Engineering
•
Ecoterrorism today
• Most violence associated with ecoterrorism has
taken place in the American West
• From 1995-1999, damages total $28.8 million
• ELF activities have increased each year since
1999
• Ecoterrorists are uncompromising, illogical
extremists just like their right-wing
counterparts; They use ecology as a surrogate
religion
Murrah Federal
Building
Oklahoma City
25 June 1994
• 168 Dead
• 490 Injured
Terrorist tactics have been
admired in the past…
• American Revolution
• Was the Boston Tea Party an act of terrorism?????
• What about the French Resistance that fought against
Germany in WWII?
• Russian and Spanish Guerrilla warfare vs. Napoleon????
• Terrorist or Freedom Fighter????
• Are we Terrorists?
• Bombing of other countries when they do something we don’t
like?
• Iraq
• Libya
• Panama
Why Terrorism???
• Terrorism and guerrilla warfare
• Ability to compete with “superpowers”
• Legitimate form of warfare?
• Applicability of “Laws of war” (legitimate nations at a
disadvantage?)
• Terrorists have advantage of surprise and initiative
• What methods may be used to combat terrorist/guerrilla
attacks? Advantages and disadvantages of each (loss of
innocent life, collateral damage, etc.)
Why Terrorism? Because It Works
•
•
•
•
•
The anthrax case:
3 teaspoons worth of anthrax
$27,500,000 to clean up Senate Office Building
$300,000,000 to clean up postal facilities
Two pounds of anthrax would saturate all of
Manhattan.
• 9/11- 19 Hijackers killed thousands and caused
Trillions of dollars in economic damage.
Terrorist Profiles: Three
Views
• Hacker one of first criminal profilers
• Hacker’s three types of terrorists:
• Criminals
• Join terrorist groups for payoff or vengeance
• Crazies
• Join terrorist groups for thrills of lifestyle
• Crusaders
• People who believe deeply in a cause
Creating Terrorist
Organizations
• Pyramid Organization:
• Support is most common job in terrorist groups
• Fraser and Fulton’s hierarchy of terrorist group:
• Smallest group at the top is responsible for
command
• Second level is active cadre—people who carry out
organization’s mission
• Third level is most important: active supporters
• Fourth level is passive supporters; largest group
Terrorism Support Base
Actual
terrorists
Active supporters
Passive supporters
Sympathizers
Suicide Terror Attacks are . . .
• inexpensive and effective; extremely favorable per-casualty cost benefits for
the terrorists
• less complicated and compromising – no escape plan needed, and success
means no assailant to capture and interrogate
• perhaps the ultimate “smart bomb” – this “weapon” can cleverly disguise
itself, use various modes of deception, and effect last minute changes in
timing, access, and target
• a strategic communication device – successful attacks are virtually assured
media coverage
• effective because the weaker opponent acts as coercer and the stronger actor is
the target
• Key difference from other attacks: The target of suicide campaign cannot
easily adjust to minimize future damage
Suicide Terrorism: Where?
Three types of attacks are most likely to occur:
• High value, symbolic targets involving mass casualties
• Important government buildings, installations, or landmarks
• Major means of personal or commercial transportation
• High value, symbolic targets against specific persons
• Political assassinations (e.g., head of state, regional governor, etc.)
• Deliberately lethal attacks targeting the public
• Bus, train, subway bombings; attacks on shopping malls, cinemas, sports
stadiums, public gathering spaces
Suicide Terrorism
• The use of suicide terrorism as a tactic has changed the
nature of terrorism and the war in Iraq.
• In most cases, the use of suicide terrorism has tended
to improve the success of terrorists and frustrated their
more capable, better-resourced enemies (i.e., US, EU)
• This analysis is based on Robert Pape’s article in the
Aug. 2003 American Political Science Review (vol. 97,
no. 3, 343-361)
Suicide Terrorism
• Suicide terrorism was seldom used but not
unknown before 1980
• The 1983 attack on the US Marine barracks in
Lebanon was a spectacular early use of this
tactic
• Since that time its use has risen sharply
Suicide Terrorism
2000
2001
2002
2003
2002
2005
2006
Suicide Attacks
Against Israel
Suicide Attacks Thwarted by
Israeli Forces
4
35
60
26
15
5
2
4
56
171
209
367
96
187
Source: Jewish Virtual Library.org
Types of Suicide Terrorism
• Suicide attack on foot, explosive belt -- numerous Iraq
• Attempted suicide attack with a plane as target -- Richard Reid on American
Airlines Flight 63
• Suicide car bomb -- numerous Iraq
• Suicide attack by a boat with explosives -- USS Cole bombing
• Suicide attack by a submarine with explosives (human-steered torpedo) -Kaiten, used by Japan in WWII
• Suicide attack by a plane with explosives -- kamikaze
• Suicide attack by a hijacked plane with fuel -- 9/11
• Suicide attack by diverting a bus to an abyss -- Tel Aviv Jerusalem bus
Massacre
• Suicide attack with guns -- Kashmiri insurgents on the Indian Parliament in
December 2001 killing 15 people.
Profile of Suicide Terrorists
• The original descriptions of characteristics of suicide
terrorists pointed to depressed, isolated, uneducated,
embittered loners carrying out attacks, motivated by a
sense of powerlessness
• The rising numbers of suicide attacks has made this
profile obsolete
• Suicide terrorists may be young, middle class, welleducated, female
• Religion seems to be a significant motivation in many
cases, but not all (e.g., Tamil Tigers, Sri Lanka)
5 Principles of Suicide Terrorism
1. Suicide terrorism is strategic
-- Groups announce their goals and cease attacks when
those goals are met
2. Designed to coerce modern democracies, usually
over territorial claims
-- Every suicide terrorist attack since 1980 has been
directed against a democratic form of government
3. Suicide terrorism has been rising for the past 25
years because it is often partially successful
-- Palestinian management/control: West Bank, Gaza
-- Regional autonomy negotiations for Tamil Tigers in Sri
Lanka
-- Limited toleration for Kurdish minority in Turkey
5 Principles of Suicide Terrorism
4. More ambitious, large-scale attacks are unlikely to
prove increasingly successful
-- Large democratic states have little political incentive to
concede when the stakes are very high -- public support
5. The most promising tactic for reducing suicide
terrorism is by reducing the terrorists’ confidence in
further success
-- Border control, increased internal security
-- Military action alone is unlikely to create this effect
Types of Terrorism
•
Terrorists have a choice of tactics to use depending
on the desire effect
Demonstrative Terrorism
•
•
•
•
Used mainly to gain publicity, recruit activists
May announce their action in advance (bomb threat)
Destructive Terrorism
•
•
•
More aggressive, seeks to coerce enemies
Balance between effect of act and the potential to alienate
potential sympathizers
Suicide Terrorism
•
•
Most aggressive
May alienate the terrorists’ own community
Types of Terrorism
•
Two factors related to the news media are crucial
•
•
•
•
•
Projection of an image of being unstoppable
Projection of an image of being very numerous
Suicide terrorism is an aspect of asymmetrical
warfare, where the terrorist organization is weaker
than their enemy
Their actions are a punishment for not acceding to
previous demands
Fear is intensified by the credible threat of additional
future attacks
Selected Suicide Terror Campaigns
Terrorist
Group
Terrorists’ Goals
Target Behavior
Apr-Dec
1983
Hezbollah
US/France out of
Lebanon
Complete Withdrawal
Nov 1983Apr 1985
Hezbollah
Israel out of Lebanon
Complete withdrawal
Apr 1984Dec 2006
Hamas,
various
Israel out of Palestine
Complete withdrawal from
Gaza, partial withdrawal
from West Bank
1996-2003
Al Qaeda
US out of Arabian
Peninsula
Complete withdrawal
2000-
Chechen
Rebels
Russia out of Chechnya
TBD
2003-
Al Qaeda,
various
US out of Iraq
TBD
Analysis of Religious
Terrorism
• Religious fanaticism and technology
• Terrorists behave differently from regular
criminals, religious terrorists behave
differently from political terrorists
• Religious terrorists are not constrained by
the same factors that inhibit other types of
terrorists
Analysis of Religious Terrorism
•
Holy Terror vs. Secular Terror
• Secular terrorists operate within a dominant
political and cultural framework
• Secular terrorists would rather make allies than
indiscriminately kill their enemies
• Holy terrorists see the world as a battlefield
between the forces of light and darkness
• Holy terrorists see killing as a sacramental act.
Examples can be found in:
• The Koran
• Christian Old Testament
• Hebrew Bible
Analysis of Religious Terrorism
• True believers
• Religious terrorists dismiss the religious
views of others
• When a person becomes a true believer and
a religious doctrine sanctions the use of
violence, deified terrorism results, that is,
the act of terrorism itself is made sacred and
holy
Analysis of Religious Terrorism
• Other dangerous trends in holy terror
• Religious terrorists are not utilitarian;
that is, they are not a person seeking the
greatest amount of good for the greatest
number of people. Religious terrorist
seek the greatest good for themselves
• Religious terrorists demonize their
enemies; that is, they equate their
enemies with the ultimate source of evil
The Social Characteristics of Terrorists:
Juergensmeyer’s Terror in God’s Mind
• Holy warriors
• The call to violence is a call to purify the
world from the nonbeliever and the
incorrect interpreters of tradition in a
holy war
• Those who do not stand with the holy
warrior are evil
• If the holy warrior falls, the warrior
becomes a martyr for hope; if the holy
warrior is successful, it is a victory for
the deity
After the Sept 11 attacks
• The “ clash of civilizations” theory suddenly
gained new prominence in the west
• Originally put forward by Bernard Lewis, an
American historian of the Middle East in 1990.
• Expanded and given prominence by Samuel
Huntington of Harvard University in an article in
Foreign Affairs, later expanded into a book.
• Bernard Lewis: Islam “ an ancient rival against
our Judeo-Christian heritage”.
• Traces the rivalry back to the time of the Islamic
invasion of Spain, the western Crusades, the
Ottoman invasion of eastern and central Europe,
and the European defeat of the Ottomans after
WW1.
• “The Muslim has suffered succesive stages of
defeat….It was too much to endure, and the
outbreak of rage against these alien, infidel and
incomprehensible forces that subverted his
dominance….was inevitable.”
• Bernard Lewis’ ideas have influenced important
members of the Bush administration, including
vice president Cheney
• Their assumptions:
- Islamic societies are fundamentally anti
democratic and repressive.
- Islamists are resentful and hate the freedom and
liberty they see in the US, and want to destroy it.
- If Islam and the west are to live together, Islamic
countries need to be democratized and
modernised: this is the project in Iraq.
Huntington’s thesis
• “The fundamental source of conflict..will not be
primarily ideological or economic. The great
divisions among humankind will be cultural.”
• “The fault lines between civilizations will be the
battle lines of the future.”
• He divides the world into seven or eight major
civilizations: Western, Confucian, Japanese,
Islamic, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American.
• Huntington saw the main source of conflict in the
world as being between western and Islamic
civilization
Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations
and Esposito’s Response
•
•
Huntington’s Thesis
• International peace will be threatened in “torn
countries”. These are regions where more than
one civilization exists within an area
John Esposito
• Disagrees with Huntington on Two Levels:
• Culture or civilization is defined by more
than religion
• There is no Islamic civilization
Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations
and Esposito’s Response
•
•
Daniel Pipes
• When looking at Islam, the major clash is not
between civilizations, but rather within Islamic
civilization
Thomas Barnett
• Believes Huntington’s clash comes between
economic rather than cultural civilizations
Islamic extremists too believe in
a clash of civilization
• The West and Islam will “constantly be
enemies…Islam must win and westerners
will be destroyed. But we don’t have to
make then enemies if they allow Islam to
continue to grow so that in the end they will
probably agree to be under Islam. If they
refuse to be under Islam there will be chaos.
If they want to have peace, they have to
accept to be governed by Islam.” Abu-Bakr
Bashir, head of Jemaah Islamiyah in
Indonesia.
Huntington’s and Lewis’ ideas have been
vigorously criticised
• Confuses the thinking of a small Islamic
fundamentalist fringe, with the majority of
Muslims
• Does not distinguish between Arab Muslims
and non Arab Muslims
• Are “civilizations” that distinct and are they
based on religion?
Know Your Enemy
“If you know yourself but do not know your enemy,
you will sometimes meet with victory, sometimes with defeat.
If you know your enemy but do not know yourself,
you will sometimes meet with victory, sometimes with defeat.
But if you know yourself and you know your enemy,
you will be victorious on a hundred occasions.”
Sun-Tsu
(The Art of War)
“Muslims look forward to
death the way Americans
look forward to life.”
Osama bin Laden
(Islamic Terrorist)
Global War on Terrorism--Who is the
enemy?
• The enemy consists of various extremist Islamic groups that espouse the use of
violence to achieve their ideological aims – al Qa’ida being the most
dangerous. Characteristics are:
• No state, no uniform, lives among the population
• Believes religion is under attack and calls upon Muslims to defend Islam
• Even support by 1% of the Muslim population would equate to over 12
million “enemies”
• While we may view his beliefs as dangerously misguided….
• He is absolutely committed to his cause
• His religious ideology successfully attracts recruits
• He has a sufficient population base from which to protract the conflict
Terms
•
This briefing refers to “ISLAM” and “ISLAMIC” to refer generally to the broad
range of religious, cultural and socio-economic values and assumptions that are
shared among the diverse adherents to the Islamic faith.
•
This briefing refers to “ISLAMISTS” (“Islamic Fundamentalists”,
“Fundamentalists”, “Extremists”) ) and requires that these terms be understood to
refer to those Islamic extremists who have, by their words and actions, defined
themselves as the enemies of all that is NOT in agreement with their view and are
currently executing a violent campaign against those who do not share their agenda
– primarily the U.S. This term does NOT refer to “all Muslims” nor Muslims of any
particular denomination or sect of the broader religion of Islam. It refers ONLY to
those Muslim extremists who are engaged in using violent means to expand the
influence of their particular view of Islam. Some of these religious, and sociopolitical views are shared among most or even all Muslims. However, those views
which have motivated Islamist, Fundamentalist Extremists to violent action are
generally shared ONLY by those groups.
•
“JIHAD” is an Arabic term that is used for any “struggle” INCLUDING warfare. It
is frequently interpreted in a religious context as “Holy War” but CAN mean
“struggle” as in a struggle to overcome a personal limitation or a “struggle” to
understand a new point of view.
•
“JIHADI” is one who struggles or “fights”. In the context of a religiously inspired
“Holy War”, a “Jihadi” is a “Holy Warrior”.
Islam Today????
• Islam (modernists, traditionalists and orthodox 80-85%?)
• Ancient religion of 1.5 billion people
• Diversity of beliefs, practices, and politics
• Islamism (salafi Islam, fundamentalism) (15-20%?)
• Islam must have political power and a state
• Response to European colonialism
• Modernism and the turn to Islam
• But no unanimity about democracy
• Jihadism (salafiyya jihadiyya) (<1%?)
• Extremist version of Islamism
• No gradual implementation or political process
• Only violence can recreate an idealized Islamic state
called the “Caliphate”
Historical Perspective
I
• Islam spread very quickly by conversion
and by developing empire.
• Mohammed was at once a prophet, religious
leader, military leader, and government
head.
• Crusades were a direct attack on this empire
that included many lands outside of the
Middle East. Focus is on Christian
atrocities.
Historical Perspective
II
• Place of Christians and Jews in the early
Islamic State and Mohammed's last wishes.
• Holy Land is for Muslims only: Arabia,
Medina, Mecca
• With the collapse of the Ottoman Empire
the Caliphate (Islamic Leader) ended
(1924).
The Al Qaeda Manual I
“After the fall of our orthodox
caliphates on March 3, 1924 and after
expelling the colonialists, our Islamic
nation was afflicted with apostate
rulers who took over in the Moslem
nation. These .rulers turned out to be
more infidel and criminal than the
colonialists themselves.”
Al Qaeda Manual II
“Colonialism and its followers, the
apostate rulers, then started to openly
erect crusader centers, societies, and
organizations like Masonic Lodges, Lions
and Rotary clubs, and foreign schools.
They aimed at producing a wasted
generation that pursued everything that is
western and produced rulers, ministers,
leaders, physicians, engineers,
businessmen, politicians, journalists, and
information specialists.”
Some general things to consider…
• Many in the Mid-East see the West as the cause of many of their
problems.
• We (USA) are now THE representative of the West.
• Even though the Mid-East is rich in oil, the average person is not rich.
Many dictators and kings have become rich while their people have
suffered. Guess who helped to put many of these people into power???
• These monarchs and dictators have used brutality and violence to keep
their own people in line.
• Education is very limited. Even those that are educated are not
allowed/encouraged free thought. (Women)
• Even educated men have a hard time finding jobs in many Mid-Eastern
countries. Lack of economic opportunities leads to anger.
• Many religious schools teach students to recite the Koran, but not what
it means. (Arabic)
• Many view themselves as Muslim first, a citizen of their country second!
• Islam is a multinational and multiracial religion. Only a small minority
of Muslims are Arab.
• Radicals like bin Laden and others see this as a holy war, a literal battle
for world domination. Many radicals have the attitude “convert, or die.”
• People like bin Laden represent a small, but growing, minority of the 1
billion worldwide Muslims.
“Problems” with Islam today
•
•
•
•
•
No “Church” hierarchy. (Pope)
No official Islamic Doctrine
Teachings based on various Imam’s. Some very radical.
Much illiteracy.
Since most Muslims aren’t Arab, and the word of God is only
revealed in Arabic, it makes sense that most Muslims don’t
know what the Koran says. Therefore they rely on the
interpretation of the imams.
• “Every Muslim who passes away without a gun in his hand
faces Allah with the sins of abandoning fight… I strongly
believe that there is no difference between who does not fight ,
and he who does not fast, pray or pay zakat (tithe). I believe no
Muslim is excused from abandoning Jihad.” Shaykh Azzam
Worldview
• Jewish Conspiracy
• Banking
• Influence/Pulling the strings
• US World Position
• Leader and therefore responsible regardless of
proof
• Support of Israel
• The Final Proof
(How many Arab countries have accepted the
right of Israel to exist at all?)
Globalization
• Forcing a secular western culture on a
traditional Islamic culture
• Extolling: music, morals, sex, values and
materialism
• Importing to them low paying jobs.
The Impact of Islamist World’s Economics* & Socio-demographics*
•
The Appeal to A Dangerous Socio-Political Element
•
•
•
The Poor
The Politically Disenfranchised
The Youth Bulge
The Corrupted and
Apostate Rich
The Virtuous Poor
* TP525-2-60, pp 30, 36
Role of Islam in Society
• “In the Islamic system of values and from the point of view
of Muslim fundamentalists, religion cannot be separated
from any aspect of life.”
• “Religion is omnipresent in every aspect of a Muslim
individual's private and social life from the economy to
social relations.”
• “What does harm to the society is not religion - it is the way
in which some of the rulers take advantage of religion”
DR MEHDI KHAZALI, Iranian cleric
Understanding Islam
Islam
Role of
religion
for the
believer
Christian West
The defining
An expression of
doctrine regulating private personal
all aspects of
belief.
personal behavior,
family, political
and economic life.
Understanding Islam
Islam
View of
The world consists
government of one true faith
divided into nations
(Lewis, xx). There is
no meaningful
difference between
political and
religious
communities.
Christian West
Dualism -- The
world is split into
two spheres,
political (secular)
and religious. Since
the Enlightenment:
religion should not
be too prominent in
politics.
Understanding Islam
View of
religion
Islam
Christian West
The Qur’an is a single book
written by one man. There are
no rituals, sacraments or
ordinations that can only be
performed by priests -- no
mediation between man an
God.
The Bible is the work of
numerous men over a
considerable time. There
is a religious caste
(priests) who either
mediate for believers or
perform certain holy rites.
The Church is an
institution that preserves
the dogma of the faith.
Understanding Islam
View of
society
Islam
Christian West
There is a polity that carries
out the necessary functions of
civic life, but it is also founded
on principles derived from the
Qur’an. This mirrors the
practice of Muhammad, who
was both a prophet and a
political leader, merging “two
traditions, the one authoritarian
and quietest, the other radical
and activist.” (Lewis, 11)
Society is a broad
community of people in
voluntary association who
pursue common interests,
preserve common ways of
life and belief. Religion is
only one of many factors
that bind people together;
numerous social substructures also support and
nourish civic life.
Understanding Islam
View of
the
individual
Islam
Christian West
The individual is bound by a
strict duty to observe
religious law, participate in
the great evangelistic work of
the faith, and defend the
honor of Muhammad, the
Muslim faith and all those
who profess them.
Individuals may choose to
bind themselves to a
religious faith, or to no
religion at all. Individuals
should respect each
other’s rights.
“…most Muslim countries are still profoundly Muslim in
a way and in a sense that most Christian countries are no
longer Christian.” (Lewis, 16)
What is Islamism?
• Literalism of Qur’an to all of society
• Islamic world decline due to loss of religious observance
and caliphate
• Moral and religious law enforcement
• “Islamic state”
• Western culture breeds materialism, atheism, selfishness,
and decadence
• Separate from the west
• State of Israel is illegitimate and should be removed
• All Muslims should enroll in jihad to achieve these goals.
• Glorify martyrdom
Islamist Perceptions &
Motivations…?
•
How would YOU feel if this was
Kansas City, MO.?
Baghdad, April 2003
Baghdad, April 2003
•
How would YOU feel if this was
Cincinnati, OH?
•
Are Islamist Motivations Different
From Ours…?
Madrassas/Wahhabism
• Wahhabi: 1750’s reformer to an earlier
“purer” Islam. Embraced and propagated
by Saudi Arabia today in their education
system home and abroad. Saudi Arabia
Academy in Alexandria, VA.
• Unity of Religion, Government, Military
• Examples: Pakistan, Egypt, Sudan
• Strong Fundamentalist Movements
Jihad
• Means “Struggle.”
• Jihad of the heart/soul is an inner struggle of good against evil in the
mind.
• Jihad by the tongue is a struggle of good against evil waged by writing
and speech.
• Jihad by the pen and knowledge is a struggle for good against evil
through scholarly study of Islam.
• Jihad by the hand refers to a struggle of good against evil waged by
actions or with one's wealth, such as going on the Hajj pilgrimage (seen as
the best jihad for women), taking care of elderly parents, or political
activity for furthering the cause of Islam.
• Jihad by the sword refers to qital fi sabilillah (armed fighting in the way
of God, or holy war), the most common usage by Salafi Muslims and
offshoots of the Muslim Brotherhood.
• 5 Kinds of Jihad, but we mostly only hear about the last!
Joining the Jihad: The
conventional wisdom
• Do ideas cause people to join the jihad?
• People join terrorist organizations because they are:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Poor
Broken family background
Ignorant (uneducated)
Immature young men
No skills
No family or job responsibility
Weak minds, vulnerable to brainwashing (madrassas, family or direct
appeal)
Mentally ill
Criminals
Religious fanatics
Evil
Joining the Jihad: The evidence
• Based on 400 subjects:
• 2/3 from solid upper or middle class background
• Vast majority from intact caring family
• 60% had some college education
• Average age was 26 years
• 3/4 were professional or semi-professional
• 3/4 were married & most had children
• Half were religious children, only 13% were madrassa educated
• Only 1% had thought disorder (global base rate). Very little
evidence of personality disorder.
• Only European 2nd generation, immigrants & converts were petty
criminal
• The vast majority was not religious in early adulthood.
Joining the jihad: What really
counts
• Alienated from society
• 70% expatriates
• 10% excluded second generation or immigrants
• Pre-existing social bonds
• Friendship: 68% “bunch of guys” making alienated
young Muslims into fanatics joining together
• Kinship: 20%
• Worship: 10%
• Discipleship: 8%
• Bottom up activity: no top down recruitment
program
Becoming an Islamist terrorist
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Upwardly & geographically mobile people
Mostly from religious caring & middle class families
International people, conversant in 3 or 4 languages
Skilled in computer technology
Separated from traditional bonds & culture
Homesick, lonely, marginalized  sought new friends
Drifted to mosques for companionship, not religion
Moved in together, formed cliques (“Bunch of Guys”)
Inside The Jihadi Mind
The Motivation of the Individual Jihadi
•
Various and Complex
•
•
•
Nothing to Lose
Religious Duty
Only Guarantee of Paradise
The Brutal Present
The Idyllic Future
Goals of Islamists and
Jihadists
Objective 1: Expel America and Establish
an Islamic Authority in Iraq
Attacks against the
West Continue
• America departs Iraq prior to sufficient Iraqi
capacity to provide security.
• Insurgents step up attacks against the
government and make religious claims for
regime change.
• Extremists overthrow the democratic
government of Iraq and replace it with a
Taliban-like regime.
• United Nations issues a resolution, but does
not commit to action.
• United States does not re-enter the conflict
94
Extremists now have an
Emirate in Iraq that serves
as a base of operations from
which they can revive the
Caliphate.
Objective 2: Extend the Jihad Wave to Neighboring
Countries
Attacks against the
West Continue
Would Israel
join the conflict?
• Extremists export their message and terrorist
acts throughout the middle east.
• Violence and extremist ideology undermine
governments of Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia,
Kuwait and Egypt.
• Moderate governments collapse; Taliban-like
regimes take their place.
• Baghdad becomes the capital of the Caliphate.
Would the U.S.
re-enter the conflict?
95
The revived Caliphate
now turns its attention
to the destruction of
Israel
Objective 3: Destroy Israel
Might nuclear
weapons be
employed?
Attacks against
the West continue
At what point does
the U.S. return
to Middle East?
Allies?
•
•
•
•
Attacks against Israel intensify.
United Nations issues resolution to stand down.
Caliphate gains support within the Muslim world
Caliphate attacks Israel
96
Extremists now poised
to re-establish the
historical Caliphate
Objective 4: Establish the
historical Caliphate
• The Caliphate calls for an uprising within the
remaining Islamic states to join the restoration.
• Remaining Islamic states collapse from within.
This would require the defeat of the U. S.; how could that happen?
Iraq has become the
focus of the enemy’s
effort. If they win
in Iraq, they have a
base from which to
expand their terror
Significant militant Islamist attacks against Americans
What was our response?
• We ‘proved’ to the Middle East that we are weak.
• This, along with the defeat of the USSR in Afghanistan led
to the rise of Al Qaeda.
• OBL considers America a “paper tiger” that “would after a
few blows run in defeat.” (TOEE, 149.)
• OBL is quoted as saying that the Marine withdraw from
Beirut signaled the “decline of the American government
and the weakness of the American soldier who is ready to
wage cold wars and unprepared to fight long wars.”
What is Al-Qaeda?
• Osama bin Laden led organization of radical
Islamic terrorists
• Wahhabi sect of Islam
• Founded during Afghan resistance to USSR
• Funded in part by the US
• US support of Saudis and US troops in Saudi
Arabia in Gulf War turned him against US
• Attacked US Embassies, USS Cole, 9/11 and
more
Al Qaeda's World View (1)
• Islam in mortal danger from the West; jihad a duty
• Recent events confirm al Qaeda's interpretation-Americans are the new Mongols:
• U.S. troops still in Saudi Arabia
• U.S. remains in Afghanistan
• U.S. establishing bases in the Middle East, Gulf,
Central and South Asia
• Pakistan, America's puppet, has abandoned true
path to join the oppressors
Al Qaeda's World View (2)
• U.S. occupies Iraq, threatens Syria, Iran
• Palestine occupied--supported Zionists
• Western corruption threatens Muslim souls
• Jihad is the antidote
• U.S. is thus a threat and an opportunity--hostile to Islam,
supports local tyrants, but also provides common enemy and
basis for unity
• Action will awaken, demonstrate, instruct, inspire, bring about
spiritual revival, foster unity
• A powerful message whose appeal thrives on failure,
humiliation, and anger
Introduction to Al Qaeda Thought
• 12-12-2001 statement (Ayman al-Zawahiri)
• “The need to inflict the maximum casualties against the
opponent, for this is the language understood by the West,
no matter how much time and effort such operations take.”
• “Tracking down the Americans and Jews is not impossible.
Killing them with a single bullet, a stab, or a device made
up of a popular mix of explosives, or hitting them with an
iron rod is not impossible. Burning down their property
with Molotov cocktails is not difficult. With the available
means, small groups could prove to be a frightening horror
for the Americans and Jews.”
“The ruling to kill the Americans and their
allies -- civilians and military -- is an
individual duty for every Muslim who can
do it in any country in which it is possible
to do it, in order to liberate the al-Aqsa
Mosque and the holy mosque [Mecca]
from their grip, and in order for their
armies to move out of all the lands of
Islam, defeated and unable to threaten
any Muslim.”
World Islamic Front Statement 23 Feb 1998
Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders
This is in accordance with the words of
Almighty Allah, "and fight the pagans all
together as they fight you all together,"
and "fight them until there is no more
tumult or oppression, and there prevail
justice and faith in Allah."
World Islamic Front Statement 23 Feb 1998
Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders
Past Terrorist Attacks by Al Qaeda
February 26, 1993
New York City, New York
World Trade Center Bombing
Kuwaiti man, Ramzi Yousef, and
at least three other men
planted a “car” bomb in the
garage of the World Trade
Center, hoping that the blast
would topple one tower into
the other as well as spread
cyanide gas across town
killing thousands.
Ramzi Yousef
• “After being captured in Pakistan, he was flown into
Stewart Airport in Newburgh, New York, and then
transferred to an FBI helicopter for the trip to the
Metropolitan Correctional Center next to Federal Plaza in
Lower Manhattan. ‘Two huge guys carried him off the
plane, shackled and blindfolded…’ ‘After we got airborne
and were flying down the Hudson River, one of the SWAT
guys asks me, ‘Can we take off his blindfold?’ It took
Yousef a minute to focus his eyes. Ironically, the helicopter
was alongside the World Trade Center. The SWAT guy
gives him a nudge and says, ‘You see, it’s still standing.’
And Yousef says, ‘It wouldn’t be if we had more money.’”
(The Looming Tower, pg. 357. Emphasis Added)
1993 WTC Bombing
Rationale: Leader of a terrorist
cell heeding the call of Jihad
on the U.S.
Result: 6 people dead, 1000
injured, Towers stayed
upright and the cyanide gas
evaporated in the heat of the
explosion.
Ramzi Yousef was sentenced to
life in prison on January 8,
1998
Past Terrorist Attacks…
August 7, 1998
Kenya and Tanzania
American Embassy Bombings
Suicide bomb attacks at two
different embassies
hundreds of miles apart, but
within minutes of each other.
First recognized acts of Al
Qaeda, a network of
terrorists led and supported
by Osama bin Laden, a
Saudi Arabian millionaire.
Embassy Bombings
Rationale: Response to a
call for Jihad on the
U.S.
Result: 12 people dead,
224 injured
Osama bin Laden became
a recognized name and
hit the FBI’s Top Ten
Most Wanted Men
Past Terrorist Attacks…
October 12, 2000
Yemen naval port
Bombing of the U.S.S. Cole
Two men, later linked to Al Qaeda,
sailed a small boat full of
explosives next to the U.S.S.
Cole, detonating the bomb.
Leaving a 20 x 40 foot hole in the
side of the ship.
Rationale: Goal was to sink the
ship and lower U.S. morale
Result: 17 sailors dead, 39 injured
No one has been held accountable,
added to the list of grievances
against and crimes of Osama bin
Laden
1. The Events of 9/11
1. The Events of 9/11
On a beautiful, clear day in September . . .
• Four planes hijacked; three flown into office buildings in NYC and DC
• NYC attacks (2nd plane crash) shown on live television; American attention riveted;
other tv shows replaced by 9/11 coverage
• All airplanes grounded; schools closed; sports cancelled
• WTC towers collapse, shown on live television
• Close coverage of whereabouts of Pres. Bush, other national leaders
• Lots of commentary and questions; few informed answers; lots of emotion,
Congressional Representatives spontaneously singing patriotic songs on the steps of
Capitol Hill
AB95-5.PPT
// ##
2. The Psychological Impact of 9/11
2. The Psychological Impact
Post Traumatic Stress Disorder
• Individuals who have been exposed to a traumatic event may experience at least one
recurrent symptom related to the event (such as intrusive, repeated recollections or
dreams of the event)
• Persistently avoids people, activities or places associated with the event
• Cannot recall important aspects of the trauma
• Shows disinterest in their usual daily activities and a sense of foreboding about the
future
• Hyper arousal (difficulty in falling or staying asleep, outbursts of anger, hyper
vigilance, an inability to concentrate, or exaggerated startle responses)
• May lead to significant impairment in social, occupational or other important areas
of the individual’s life
AB95-5.PPT
// ##
2. The Psychological Impact
Common Themes in the Research on 9/11 Psychological Impact
• Living closer to the attack scene, direct personal loss, and children were more likely
to exhibit symptoms of PTSD
• Sadness was the most frequent reaction among New Yorkers, followed by
anxiety and fear
• Almost 20% of Americans across the country reported symptoms of distress
• constant news coverage, replays of video footage showing the second plane
hitting the World Trade Center, helped all Americans feel closer to the event
• Americans did not withdraw from others
• Stress and uncertainty produces social behaviors: people seek out others,
perhaps to enhance social support, or to help to affirm one’s cultural view of the
world and the threat (Brandon & Silke)
• Increased participation in religious services, memorials, vigils
AB95-5.PPT
// ##
3. The Economic Impact of 9/11
3. The Economic Impact
Confusion/Disagreement on Total Economic Impact
• NY City Economic Impact
• “Total Loss $83 billion”
(NYC partnership & Chamber of
Commerce: Nov 2001)
• “Total Cost $54 billion”
(NY Governor: Oct 2001)
• “WTC Replacement Cost & Cleanup
$25~29 billion”
(FEB NY: April 2002)
• “Total Cost $83 billion (quoting
NYCP-COC) but $67 billion covered
by Insurance
(US GAO: May 2002)
• NY State Jobs Lost
•
•
•
“99,000 in 2001, 78,000 in 2002,
77,000 in 2003”
(NYS Senate Finance Committee:
DRI-WEFA: January 2002)
“Resulted at peak loss of 78,200”
(DRI-WEFA: March 2002)
“50,000 immediately, 70,000 in 4th
Quarter” “Much of this loss is likely
linked to WTC attack”
(FEB NY: April 2002)
• NY City Jobs Lost
• 108,500, 115,300, 105,200, 125,000,
84,000, 78,200, 129,000….
AB95-5.PPT
// ##
3. The Economic Impact
Immediate and Short-Term Economic Impacts
• Financial Sector
• 40% of WTC casualties
• NYSE, NYME closed
• Aviation Sector
• planes grounded for a week or more
• 20% drop in passengers
• 100,000 jobs lost; several airlines went bankrupt
• Insurance Sector
• loss of life and property estimated at $40-$50 billion
AB95-5.PPT
// ##
3. The Economic Impact
Immediate and Short-Term Economic Impacts
• Other industries were also badly affected, such as hotels, tourism,
automobile rentals, travel agents, and civilian aircraft manufactures.
• Hotels reported higher vacancy rates and employment in the sector as
a whole fell by 58,000 (about 3%) in October and November, 2001
• Nearly 18,000 businesses were dislocated, disrupted or destroyed by
the attacks
• Also, over 300 firefighters and nearly 100 policeman were killed
while trying to evacuate the World Trade Center before it collapsed
AB95-5.PPT
// ##
3. The Economic Impact
Longer-Term Economic Impacts
• Federal Reserve cut interest rates aggressively
• Special financing incentives offered by the automobile companies led
to record motor vehicle sales for October 2001
• Securities market was only closed for four days, opening again after
the telecommunications network in lower Manhattan became
operational.
• Stock market re-opened on September 17th; within 19 trading days,
the S&P 500 index had bounced back to its pre-September 11th level
AB95-5.PPT
// ##
3. The Economic Impact
Longer-Term Economic Impacts
• New York City lost a significant amount of its office space and a
number of businesses ceased to exist.
• Close to 200,000 jobs were destroyed or relocated to other cities
• 34.5 million square feet of office space lost
AB95-5.PPT
// ##
3. The Economic Impact
Longer-Term Economic Impacts
• City-wide impact; airports and midtown hotels not just south of Canal Street
• Low-income workers bore the brunt (60%)
• People of color and immigrants (56%) hard hit
• Chinatown, “economic ground zero”, and other poor communities heavily affected
• Insurance costs have risen on average 33% since 2001
• Diversion of resources and capacity toward security-related products and services
• Short-term direct impacts were not as significant as the financial costs of the longterm response that is still underway
AB95-5.PPT
// ##
3. The Economic Impact
Bottom Line
• 9/11 events inflicted severe and immediate physical impacts to all businesses,
government offices, and other organizations located in and around the WTC
complex.
• This event involved dead, injured, missing, physically displaced and traumatized
employees, losses of data, information, and institutional knowledge, and an
unprecedented uncertainty in market behavior
AB95-5.PPT
// ##
Pearl Harbor and 9-11:
Two Different Worlds
Pearl Harbor and 9-11: Two
Different Worlds
• December 7, 1941
• The purpose of the Japanese attack on
Pearl Harbor was to destroy U.S.
military capabilities in the Pacific
Pearl Harbor and 9-11: Two
Different
Worlds
• September 11, 2001
• The 9-11 attacks were designed for drama. They
were a tragedy performed on a subnational level,
with the purpose of murdering thousands of people
to create an aura of fear
• The goal of the September 11 terrorists was not one
of conventional military strategy. Its purpose was
to create so much feat that Western institutions
would change their behavior
• The terrorists of September 11 were attacking
globalization while America was defending state
power
Pearl Harbor and 9-11: Two
Different Worlds
• The new style of conflict
• Jihadists are not attacking state power;
they are attacking the idea of Western,
and particularly American culture
• Modern terrorism is aimed at the
infrastructure of everyday life and the
symbols that define that structure
2004 – Spain Commuter
March 11, 2004 Trains
•
• Three days before national elections, 10 bombs
were detonated on crowded commuter trains
during rush hour. Three were deactivated by
security forces and one was found unexploded.
• Evidence quickly surfaced that jihadist
terrorists with possible ties to the al Qaeda
network were responsible for the attack that
killed 191 people.
Madrid
London – July 2005
• The 7 July 2005 London bombings were a series
of coordinated bomb blasts that struck London's
public transport system during the morning rush
hour.
• At 8:50 a.m. three bombs exploded within 50
seconds of each other on three London
Underground trains.
• A fourth bomb exploded on a bus nearly an hour
later.
• 56 people, including the 4 bombers, were killed
• About 700 people were injured
August 2006 - England
• Great Britain arrested more than 20
individuals
• Plotting to detonate liquid explosives
aboard flights from the United Kingdom to
the United States.
• They planned to bring the components of
their explosives on board in their carry-on
luggage, disguised as bottled drinks and
electronic devices.
July 2007 - England
• Failed terrorist attempts (car
bombings) in Glasgow and London
• Eight have links with the British National
Health Service. The BBC indicated that
seven are doctors, medical students and a
laboratory technician.
• The eight people who have been arrested
in Australia, England and Scotland all
worked in National Health Hospitals.
Why?
The 1998 “Fatwa”
Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders
•
1.
2.
3.
The fatwa lists three "crimes
and sins" committed by the
Americans:
U.S. military occupation of
the Arabian Peninsula.
U.S. aggression against the
Iraqi people.
U.S. support of Israel
1. U.S. Military Occupation of the
Arabian Peninsula.
• “First, for over seven years the United States has been
occupying the lands of Islam in the holiest of places, the
Arabian Peninsula, plundering its riches, dictating to its
rulers, humiliating its people, terrorizing its neighbors, and
turning its bases in the Peninsula into a spearhead through
which to fight the neighboring Muslim peoples. “
• “If some people have in the past argued about the fact of
the occupation, all the people of the Peninsula have now
acknowledged it. The best proof of this is the Americans'
continuing aggression against the Iraqi people using the
Peninsula as a staging post, even though all its rulers are
against their territories being used to that end, but they are
helpless.”
• -1998 Fatwa, February 23, 1998
2. U.S. Aggression Against the
Iraqi People.
• “Second, despite the great devastation inflicted on
the Iraqi people by the crusader-Zionist alliance,
and despite the huge number of those killed,
which has exceeded 1 million... despite all this, the
Americans are once against trying to repeat the
horrific massacres, as though they are not content
with the protracted blockade imposed after the
ferocious war or the fragmentation and
devastation.”
• -1998 Fatwa, February 23, 1998
3. US Support of Israel
• “Third, if the Americans' aims behind these wars are
religious and economic, the aim is also to serve the Jews'
petty state and divert attention from its occupation of
Jerusalem and murder of Muslims there. The best proof of
this is their eagerness to destroy Iraq, the strongest
neighboring Arab state, and their endeavor to fragment all
the states of the region such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt,
and Sudan into paper statelets and through their disunion
and weakness to guarantee Israel's survival and the
continuation of the brutal crusade occupation of the
Peninsula.”
• -1998 Fatwa, February 23, 1998
The
Expansion
of
Israel
Why study Bin Laden?
• OSB is responsible for multiple attacks on US targets
at home and abroad
• OSB is not the leader of all Islamic extremists, but he
has become an inspiration to many of them
• OSB has given us many concise statements as to his
grievances
• OSB wants to kill YOU!!!!!
• He is more dangerous that most countries. If they
attack we know where to get them, not so for OBL
Main Themes of Bin Laden’s Rhetoric
1. The United States is the main enemy of
Islam.
2. Islam has been betrayed from within by
Muslim governments who have been
corrupted.
3. The Jihad is self defense!
4. Bin Laden is a motivator of all Muslims, not
their leader.
5. All weapons are on the table.
-Taken from Through Our Enemies Eyes: Osama bin Laden,
Radical Islam, and the Future of America,
Osama bin Laden
• Saudi born
• One of 52 Sons and Daughters fathered
by Mohammed bin Laden with 22
different wives. (Wright, The Looming
Tower, 82)
• Heir to bin Laden construction company
• Westernized until his teens
Bin Laden’s war: the
beginnings…
• 1979-Soviet forces arrive in Afghanistan to
support communist forces who had taken power in
a coup a year earlier.
• Resistance against the Soviet forces soon became
a “ jihad”, a holy struggle to evict an atheist
invader from a Muslim country
• Pakistan and Saudi Arabia were the largest backers
of this jihad. The Saudi’s provided the funds, and
Pakistan provided the training camps. Thousands
of youth from across the Muslim world flocked to
join this “ jihad”
• Among them was Osama Bin Laden, the
son of a wealthy construction industry
businessman.
• Bin Laden, born in 1957, was the 17th of
his father’s 57 children. He studied business
administration and then Islamic studies at
King Abdul Aziz University in Jeddah.
• Bin Laden’s father was one of many who provided
funds for the Afghan mujahideen, and Bin Laden
began visiting the area in 1980.
• By 1982, he settled down in Peshawar, Pakistan,
the main centre for the Afghan mujahideen. He
brought in engineers from his company, and built
roads and other buildings for the fighters
The CIA’s role
• By the early 1980, the CIA had begun funding and
arming the mujahideen against the Soviet Union.
• The CIA, with the help of the Pakistani
intelligence services and Saudi money, set up
training camps, poured large amounts of money
and weapons into the region.
• In 1986, his company built a huge CIA financed
underground tunnel and storage complex for the
mujahideen
• Between 1982 and 1992 an estimated 35,000
young Muslims from all over the world were
trained in these camps.
• “ I settled in Pakistan in the
Afghan border region. There I
received volunteers who came
from the Saudi kingdom and
all over the Arab and Muslim
countries.
I set up my first camp where
these volunteers were trained
by American and Pakistani
officers. The weapons were
supplied by the Americans, the
money by the Saudis.”
Osama bin Laden in an interview
to AFP, 27 August 1998
• 1989, Bin Laden forms his own group, known as Al
Qaeda, or “the base”. Using his own money,as well as
money from Saudi Arabia, the organisation grows, and
attracts Arab militants
• In 1990, after the Soviet withdrawal, Bin Laden returns to
Saudi Arabia and works in the family business. He also
sets up a welfare organisation for Arab veterans of the
Afghan war.
• Most importantly, OBL returned home “with an address
book containing the names of everybody who was anybody
in Islamic activism and guerrilla warfare in his pocket.
(TOEE, 117.)
• In 1991, after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait Bin Laden
wanted the Saudi royal family to create a force of Afghan
war veterans to fight Saddam. Instead, the Saudis allowed
US forces to be based in Saudi Arabia
• Bin Laden was furious about US troops would be based
so closed to the sacred sites of Mecca and Medina. He
criticized the Saudi royal family for allowing non
Muslims to be based in the country.
• His view is widely accepted in the Arab world.
• “Never has Islam suffered a greater disaster than this
invasion.” OBL
• The Saudi royal family revokes Bin Laden’s citizenship
Bin Laden in Sudan and Afghanistan
• 1992, Bin Laden moves to Sudan, where he helps an Islamic revolution
under Hassan Turabi.
• He uses his money to fund Islamic militants and gets together more Arab
veterans from Afghanistan and runs construction projects.
• OBL funds Muslim fighters in Somalia and sends at least 250 of his own
men to aid in the fight against the US.
• Somali’s “received some expert guidance [on the use of rocket propelled
grenades] from Islamic soldiers smuggled in form Sudan, who had
experience fighting Russian helicopters in Afghanistan.” (Mark Bowen,
Black Hawk Down)
• By now, he has begun the attract the attention of the US as a financier of
terrorist organisations
• Saudi Arabia and the US put pressure on Sudan to give Bin Laden up. He
leaves for Afghanistan in 1996, where he is welcomed by the Taliban
• 1998 Bin Laden issues a call for jihad against the US in the middle east
• By 1999 he is on FBI’s 10 Most Wanted List
Did Bush and Clinton drop the
ball?
• We had many chances to kill OBL in the 1990’s, but chose not
to.
• February 2001, the director of the CIA told Congress that OBL
was the US’s “top national security threat.”
• Some Bush insiders say that Bush was only concerned with
Iraq and Iran and never paid any attention to the threat posed
by OBL and other terrorists.
• August 6, 2001- President Bush received a briefing entitled
“Bin Laden determined to strike in US.”
• “Even by the standards of the terrorist involved, the scale of
assault [on September 11, 2001] was unimaginable. The point,
though, is that we didn’t even try to find out what was headed
our way.” – Robert Baer, See No Evil.
Character Traits of Bin Laden
From Through Our Enemies’ Eyes
• Personal Responsibility- He truly feels he is doing
his job by waging Jihad against America.
• Piety- OBL is a devout Muslim. Gave up a life of
riches to live with commoners and wage jihad
against us.
• Professionalism- Businesslike in running Al
Qaeda. His looks make us think he is an
uneducated, anti-modern, crazy man, when this is
the exact opposite.
• Courageous- Wounded at least twice fighting in
Afghanistan
Did the CIA, FBI and NSA drop the
ball?
• In the early 90’s the FBI
“regarded terrorism as a
nuisance, not a threat.”(The Looming Tower, 4.)
• As of the mid 1990’s, only
8 FBI agents in the entire
country spoke Arabic.
(The Looming Tower,
309.)
• FBI Director Louis Freeh
“repeatedly stressed in
White House meetings
that al-Qaeda posed no
domestic threat.” (The
Looming Tower, 336.)
• Though the NSA was able
to monitor the satellite
phones of bin Laden and
Al Zawahiri, they refused
to share the information
with the FBI or CIA. (The
Looming Tower, 321.)
How is OBL viewed today?
Muslims
• Many throughout the world, not
just Muslims, respect OBL
because he has not backed down.
• He has become one of the great
warriors in the history of Islam.
• “Wherever Muslims are in
trouble, it seems, Usama Bin
Laden will be there, slaying
enemies, real or perceived. A
modern nightmare really- a big
screen villain, a free-lancer with
the resources of a state, but
without all the nasty obligations.”
(John Miller as quoted in TOEE,
189.)
The West
• “The West has pretty much
decided that bin Laden is a
serious threat only because he is
a trigger-happy nut, psychopath,
or violence prone youngster
who never grew up.” TOEE, p.
300
Excerpt from Through Our
Enemies Eyes, pg. 196.
• “Bin Laden, however has no fixed address. When American military
might comes calling the odds are Bin Lade, like Muhammad Ali,
will float like a Muslim butterfly and live to sting another day like
the prophet’s bee. All this is to say that it is counterintuitive for
Hizballah and Iran- and Sudan and Iraq, for that matter- to
deliberately put their heads on the chopping block with al Qaeda
whey they derive the same benefit by doing nothing. Al Qaeda
already has killed Americans, embarrassed Washington by forcing
U.S. leaders into a war of words with a Saudi they cannot find,
increased anti-Americanism among Muslims, caused the United
States to spend $1.4 billion for security upgrades for its embassies
and double its counterterrorism budget in five years, and put US
forces in Saudi Arabia into isolated desert cantonments at a
prolonged and enervating state of alert. All this is in the interest of
Hizballah and Iran and, to date, they have benefited at no cost to
themselves.”
Bin Laden is not crazy!
• Americans feel we are
right and do not see
ourselves as a threat.
• When someone
doesn’t like us or our
policies, we consider
that they must be
demented.
• Bin Laden’s public
statements have been
clear, concise and
logical.
• In other words, he has
basically told us what
he will do (not
specifically) and why.
• Yet we continue to
ignore his threats!
What our government doesn’t tell us!
•
•
•
•
•
Why did bin Laden attack us?
Many times, government officials say
that bin Laden attacked us because of
who we are, how we live and what we
believe in.
“Americans are asking, why do they
hate us? They hate what we see right
here in this chamber -- a
democratically elected
government. Their leaders are selfappointed. They hate our freedoms -our freedom of religion, our freedom
of speech, our freedom to vote and
assemble and disagree with each
other.” President Bush, September 20,
2001
This is a blatant lie.
Bin Laden attacked us for what we
have done, not who we are.
• “Most important, his words
leave no room to doubt that
Americans are being
attacked for what they do
in the Islamic world, not
for how they think, live or
govern themselves.”Scheuer, TOEE, pg. x.
• “The focused and lethal
threat…(comes) from their
plausible perception that
the things they love and
value- God, Islam, their
brethren, and Muslim lands
are being attacked by
America.” Scheuer, IH, 9.
Bin Laden’s threat.
• Even though most of us had
never heard of OBL before
9/11/01, the CIA, FBI, and many
other government agencies were
aware of him and his threat.
• Besides 9/11, OBL has been
behind many attacks on US
interests throughout the world.
• “In response, the United States
never seemed to take bin Laden
too seriously, let alone accept the
fact that our nation was in the
path of real danger.” (Scheuer,
xvii.)
• “If he had the wherewithal to
kill Americans and attack U.S.
targets he would do so, but he
doesn’t…..He’s serious about
wanting to kill Americans, but
as long as he’s in Afghanistan,
as long as he doesn’t have
access to a cell phone,…. His
ability to plan and conduct
terrorist operations is
extremely limited.”
Anonymous US official, 1999.
• He is responsible for attacks
on US interests all over the
world.
We are the enemy!
• The Christian West is Islam’s
main enemy.
• We are the leader of an unholy
alliance that includes many
European countries, India,
China, etc.
• “Bin Laden portrays
Americans and their allies as
inhuman creatures that thirst
for Muslim blood, delight in
gore, and aim to annihilate the
Islamic world.” (Scheuer, 47)
• Calls “us” “Crusaders.” Trying
to rekindle Muslim memory of
Crusades in the Middle Ages.
• The Islamic world, just like 1,000
years ago “stands at a critical
juncture in history, threatened by
a phased plan by the JudeoChristian conspiracy… to
gradually de-Islamicize and
occupy the Muslim holy places in
the Arabian Peninsula.”- Professor
Manstorp.
• According to OBL and others,
there is no difference between you
and a US Soldier.
• “The [Americans] are a people
whose president becomes more
popular when he kills innocent
people… If the majority of people
support their dissolute president,
this means the American people
are fighting us and we have a
right to target them.” OBL, 1999.
The Enemies from Within!
• “The US is increasing its presence in
• Bin Laden sees the Saudi Arabian
Arab countries in order to capture its
government, and others as “criminal
oil reserves…..We [the Islamic World]
despots who betrayed God and his
are suffering a daily loss of one
prophet, and betrayed their trust and their
hundred and fifteen dollars per
nation.”
barrel… During the last 13 years the
• Saudi Arabia is Bin Laden’s biggest
US has cost us a loss of eleven
target because they allow the US to have
hundred billion dollars… The US buys
military bases in the “Land of the Two
cheap oil from us and then sells us its
Holy Places.”
own tanks and aircraft with the threat
• Saudi Arabian government is nothing
of Israel.” OBL, 1997 interview with
more than a “branch or agent of the US”
Pakistan
to OBL.
• “The overwhelming evidence is that
• OBL has said that Saudi Arabia’s oil
the majority of our terrorist enemies
policy is a “economic hemorrhage.”
come from purportedly friendly
• If the United States is beheaded, the Arab
countries, and their main grievance
Kingdoms will wither away.” OBL
against us is that, in their eyes, we are
responsible for maintaining the
tyrannical regimes that rule over
them.” Scheuer, IH, pg. 11.
Self Defense
• OBL sees “Islam and the
Muslim world are being
attacked by a more modern,
powerful, and predatory
version of the medieval
Catholic Crusaders”
(Scheuer, 54)
• Therefore it is every
Muslim’s duty to fight to
defend their religion and
culture. (Total War)
• According to OBL it is the
duty of every Muslim “to
kill Americans and destroy
or steal their property and
money.” (Scheuer, 60)
Familiar???????
Inspiration
• Bin laden has continually
stated that he is not a
worldwide Islamic leader.
• His duty, and Al-Qaeda’s is
to support “anyone who
carries out military action
against the Americans.”
• “We seek to instigate the
nation (Muslims) to get up
and liberate its land, fight
for the sake of God, and to
make Islamic law the
highest law, and the word of
God the highest word of
all.”- OBL
• “If the instigation for jihad
against the Jews and
Americans in order to
liberate Al-Asqa mosque,
and the Holy Ka’aba, is
considered a crime, then let
history witness that I am a
criminal.” OBL
• “It is our duty to lead people
to the light…” OBL
All’s Fair!
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Bin Laden is looking for a chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear weapon
(CBRN).
“I would say that acquiring (CBRN) weapons for the defense of Muslims is a
religious duty.” OBL
“Bin Laden is not interested in using a CBRN weapon to terrorize his foes; he is
seeking a first strike capability.” (Scheuer, 72.)
Killing Muslim civilians is an unfortunate, but acceptable effect of using a CBRN
against the Crusaders.
“Killing them with a single bullet, a stab, or device made up of a popular mix of
explosives or hitting them with an iron rod is not impossible. Burning down their
property with Molotov cocktails is not difficult. With the available mean, small
groups could prove to be a frightening horror for the Americans and the Jews.Ayamen Zawahiri
“Osama bin Laden sees heroin as a powerful new weapon in his war against the
West that is capable of wreaking social havoc while generating huge profits.”
Washington Times, 1998.
OBL sees our dropping of atomic weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki as
“examples of America’s disregard for human life.” (Scheuer, 49.)
“Did the U.S. forget….. what it did to the residents of Hiroshima and
Nagasaki…?”- OBL
Bin Laden’s Followers
• “Why are many young people…willing to kill
themselves to strike America?”- David P. Baugh,
defense attorney for African Embassy bomber.
• Because they believe in bin Laden and they agree
with his message the Islam is under attack by the
West.
• They too see American as the “Evil Empire.”
• “Bin Laden has become a pan-Arab hero because
the Arab and Muslim peoples are yearning to any
voice that says no to the United States.”- Muntasir
al-Zayyat
Strategy and Recruitment
• Recruitment and propaganda efforts
• Video and audio tapes, CD-Roms, DVDs and the Internet
• Key themes of al Qaeda recruitment:
•
•
•
•
The West is implacably hostile to Islam
Only language the West understands is violence
Jihad is the only option
9/11 was a tremendous victory (U.S. economy was destroyed and the
course of history was changed)
• U.S. is a paper tiger on the verge of financial ruin and total collapse
• “Patience and steadfastness” are required
Strategy and Training
Lessons for new recruits include:
• education in explosives and detonators: how to assemble bombs (e.g., TNT, C4),
mines and grenades, pressure and trip wire booby traps, and the basic knowledge
of electrical engineering
• how to mount rocket launchers in the beds of pickup trucks
• how and where to launder money
• how to successfully conduct a kidnapping
• how to conduct target identification, surveillance and reconnaissance
• how and where to build camouflage-covered trenches
• how to covertly communicate with other members of a group or network
• how to fire handguns, machine guns and rocket propelled grenade launchers
Strategy and Training
Lessons for new recruits include:
• the rudiments of chemical and biological warfare
• field command and escape tactics
• marksmanship and camouflage
• the use and employment of Soviet rocket-propelled grenades and shoulder borne
STRELA missiles
• sniper rifle skills; how to fine-tune a rifle sight at short range to ensure accuracy
at longer distances
• how to direct weapon fire at targets on the ground and in the air
• training in four-man unit deployments and formations—including wedges,
columns, echelons and lines—techniques similar to those used by U.S.
Marines and Army Rangers
Is there a broader war between Islam
and the west?
• The war in Iraq has convinced more and
more people in the Middle East that the US
seeks to dominate them, using Israel and
Iraq as bases.
• Not a clash between Islam and the west, but
US interests, and those of the people of the
Middle East.
War on Iraq
• Our armies do not come into your cities and lands as conquerors
or enemies, but as liberators. ... It is [not] the wish of [our]
government to impose upon you alien institutions. ... [It is our
wish] that you should prosper even as in the past, when your
lands were fertile, when your ancestors gave to the world
literature, science, and art, and when Baghdad city was one of
the wonders of the world. ... It is [our] hope that the aspirations
of your philosophers and writers shall be realized and that once
again the people of Baghdad shall flourish, enjoying their wealth
and substance under institutions which are in consonance with
their sacred laws and their racial ideals.
• -- General F. S. Maude to the people of Mesopotamia, March 19,
1917
•
War
on
Iraq
The government of Iraq, and the future of your country,
will soon belong to you. ... We will end a brutal regime
... so that Iraqis can live in security. We will respect
your great religious traditions, whose principles of
equality and compassion are essential to Iraq's future.
We will help you build a peaceful and representative
government that protects the rights of all citizens. And
then our military forces will leave. Iraq will go forward
as a unified, independent, and sovereign nation that has
regained a respected place in the world. You are a good
and gifted people -- the heirs of a great civilization that
contributes to all humanity.
• -- President George W. Bush to the people of Iraq,
April 4, 2003
Reasons for Going to War Against
Saddam
(according to the U. S. and Britain)
Saddam kicked out U.N. weapons
inspectors.
WMDs  Weapons of Mass Destruction.
Saddam did not obey the No-Fly Zone
limitations.
He was a savage dictator.
Stop Saddam before he can launch
nuclear missiles against Israel, Europe,
or even the United States.
America's Invasion of Iraq Is a Gift (1)
• America's invasion split the infidels and has
provoked the community
• America's quick military "victory" has put its
soldiers where they are vulnerable to the kind of
warfare we can wage--Iraq will be America's
Afghanistan!
• It opens a new front for jihad
• It will provide a new radicalizing, bonding
experience for hundreds of young recruits
• Muslim insurgents will gain valuable field
experience
America's Invasion of Iraq Is a Gift (2)
• How long can the Americans stay? It took a
decade to convince the Soviets, but American's
have even less spine or stomach for losses.
Will they last until 2013 with 6,000 dead?
• Once they depart to live in angry isolation,
chaos will ensue in Iraq giving jihad new space
• The apostate regimes of the Gulf will tremble
and fall
• Proves to many non radical Muslims that the
U.S. is greedy and is just out to plunder the
resources of the Muslim world.
Iraq Insurgency: Guerillas or Terrorists,
Ethnic or Ideological?
•
Objectives for the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq
• The United States sought to enforce a mandate from the
United Nations to end the production and possession of
weapons of mass destruction in Iraq
• The United States wanted to end the reign of Saddam
Hussein and implement a democratically elected
government
• The stated purpose was to end collusion between
Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda
• After the major offensive, the campaign of violence
against the United States and its allies was horrendous
• Democratic elections took place in Iraq in January of
2005, but the Iraq insurgency continued
Iraq Insurgency: Guerillas or
Terrorists, Ethnic or Ideological?
•
Three main insurgent groups
• Displaced Ba’athists who were part of
Sadddam Hussein’s regime
• Many Ba’athists believe they can reclaim
power. The see themselves engaged in a
guerilla campaign
• Iraqis who want the United States to leave their
country
• Sunni militants
• Militant Shi’ites
• Iraqi Criminals
Iraq Insurgency: Guerillas or
Terrorists, Ethnic or Ideological?
• Jihadists who have come to Iraq to fight the
United States
• Some flock from surrounding areas to fight
as guerillas
• Some are terrorists within an al Qaeda\style umbrella
• They are behind many of the murderous
kidnappings and suicide bombings
• The three insurgent groups do not share a
common vision for the future of Iraq and they
are frequently at odds with each other
Iraq Insurgency: Guerillas or
Terrorists, Ethnic or Ideological?
•
The culture factor
•
•
•
•
An old Arab folk saying illustrates the overriding
importance of family ties in Arab culture and the
response to “the stranger”: “I and my brothers against my
cousins; I and my cousins against the stranger”
When such cultural aspects combine with the various
ideologies motivating insurgent groups, it is possible to
see that a major portion of the insurrection does not
involve terrorism
Many of the actions against Americans and their allies do
not involve terrorism
If the United States is to end major combat operations in
Iraq, it will need to implement a strategy that addresses
the major issues that insurgents and terrorist groups use
to justify violence
IEDs
• Increasing use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and/or mines
in roads.
• Recommendations:
• Do not attempt to move, or stop for, items in the road, to include:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Boxes
Bags
Debris
Animal Carcasses
UXO
Soda Cans
Broke-down vehicles
• Give wide clearance to any items on the roads.
• Remember the rules for obstacles – They are being observed. Hostile
forces may directly target Coalition forces that stop to investigate or clear
IEDS—do not stop near a suspected IED.
IED Hidden in Plaster made to
look like concrete block on side
of road under debris
Garage Door opener detonation
device (Notice Wire)
IED
•
130mm HE projectile in Plastic bag.
More IED
•
130mm HE projectile in burlap bag (notice wires coming out of bag)
VCR Tape IED
X-RAY Image
Are we hurting
ourselves?
• Today America is still fighting is Afghanistan and Iraq, two wars that were
declared “over” years ago.
• With every day that goes by and every Muslim killed, anti-American
sentiment grows throughout the Muslim world.
• “In conducting these activities [Afghanistan and Iraq]… US forces and
policies are completing the radicalization of the Islamic world, something
Osama bin Laden has been trying to do with substantial but incomplete
success since the early 1990s. As a result, I think it fair to conclude that the
United States of America remains bin Laden’s only indispensable ally.”
Scheuer, IH, pg. xv.
• “We thank God for appeasing us with the dilemma in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The Americans are facing a delicate situation in both countries. If they
withdraw they will lose everything and if they stay, they will continue to
bleed to death.” – Ayaman al-Zawahiri.
Why America Wants: a “Short
War”
• A short war means lower costs in lives and national
treasure.
• A short war reflects the enormous talent and power of our
nation.
• To the average American, the threat to the U.S. is difficult
to comprehend.
• War is alien to the peaceful nature and desires of our
nation.
Why the Global War on Terrorism is a
“Long War”
• The enemy is committed to his cause. He is prepared to fight to the death
for what he believes is a defense of his religion.
• The enemy has a strategy with global aspirations. He estimates it will take
him decades to accomplish his strategic objectives.
• It requires change within the Islamic world. Historically, such changes
have taken centuries to occur.
• It requires increased partner nation capacity – armed forces, police,
economic development, and good governance – to combat the violent
extremist threat. Such growth takes decades to achieve.
• Bin Laden and others are patient. “The Americans should know that we
have resolved to fight them fiercely in a long battle….Generations will pass
on the torch to the
following ones so that the Prophet’s flag remains
raised in victory till eternity.” Ayman al-Zawahiri,
Bin Laden’s Top Lieutenant
Defeating an Ideology: Takes Time
“The Islamic Radical threat of this century greatly resembles the bankrupt ideology of
the last. The murderous ideology of the Islamic radicals is the great challenge of our
century. Yet, in many ways, this fight resembles the struggle against communism in
the last century.” -President Bush, 6 October 2005
• Communism
–
–
–
–
Communist ideology gained prominence in 1919
US opposition began in 1946
43 years of Cold and Hot War to defeat the ideology
Communism ultimately collapsed from within
• Violent Islamic-Based Extremism
– Threads of history thousands of years long
– Potentially more legitimacy with a religious based ideology, especially
when conditions support
– group based vs. state based – more difficult to apply cold war strategies
Key Lesson: Marginalizing an ideology requires patience
and promoting reform from within
Ideology: Cold War vs. Violent
Extremism
Cold War Similarities:
• Measured in decades
• Requires all elements of national power
• Requires efforts of coalitions/alliances
• Extremely high stakes
– The further spread of terrorism – “Spillover” or “Domino Theory”
– Greater restrictions of civil liberties to stem the expanding threat
– Moderate governments in the Middle East at risk
– Civil unrest in countries with sizable Muslim minorities
Key Differences:
•
Religious basis of violent extremism versus a political ideology
• Extremists are predominately a stateless enemy
• We cannot discredit all of Islam as we did with communism, it is a divine religion.
We can only discredit the violent extremist
“…cures must come from within Muslim societies themselves. The United
States must support such developments. But this process is likely to be
measured in decades, not years.”
- 9/11 Commission Report
Building Capacity in the Cold War
• Long Term Examples of Success (Decades of Support)
– Germany, Japan, South Korea
• Commonalities
– Sustained American Presence – still today (over 50 years)
– Significant American Investment
– Democratic societies with free market economies
• Payoff
– Partner nations stood up to Communist threats
– All are significant allies and trading partners
– Each is a stabilizing force within their region
Key Lesson: Capacity building takes decades…but it is what
allows the United States to win this war in the long term.
Consider How the U.S. can be
Defeated…
The United States cannot be defeated militarily. The enemy knows
this. But consider:
•The world’s most dangerous people possess the world’s most dangerous
weapons – nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons…
• Terror attacks weaken the world economy
• Continued casualties weaken national resolve
• Traditional allies prefer accommodation
Would it expand the conflict into a “clash of civilizations?” Or…
–
–
–
–
Force our economy into a recession? Depression?
Create political pressure for isolationism?
Deter us from necessary action?
Force us to reach accommodation – “Peace in our Time?”
To win, the US must exploit the vulnerabilities of the
enemy. What are they?
What are the Enemy’s
Vulnerabilities?
• The enemy’s violent acts, vision of the future, and ideology do not
reflect the beliefs of the Muslim majority:
– Murder of ordinary people widely unsupported within the Muslim
population.
– Repressive Taliban-like regimes do not appeal to the average Muslim.
• The enemy has inherent weaknesses as well:
– “Monolithic” view of Islam underestimates cultural and religious differences
– No military capacity to expand their fight
beyond terrorist tactics
– Underestimates the will of America
and our allies
So what do we need to do? What is our strategy?
US Strategy
The three key elements in win this war are:
–Protect and defend the Homeland
–Attack terrorists and their capacity to operate effectively at home and abroad
–Support mainstream Muslim efforts to reject violent extremism
In addition to the strategic elements, there are three critical crosscutting enablers:
– Expanding foreign partnerships and partnership capacity
– Strengthening our capacity to prevent terrorist acquisition and use of WMD
– Institutionalizing domestically and internationally the strategy against violent
extremists
This war goes far beyond the borders of Iraq,
Afghanistan and the Greater Middle East
What are the Implications of
Quitting? Failure?
• Violent extremist overthrow the government of Iraq.
• U.S. image damaged throughout the world – an emboldened enemy
• Resource rich safe havens for the enemy – increasing our risk of attack
• Failure to stop the enemy now, while he is relatively weak, portends a larger
conflict later – at enormous costs.
• Much of the worlds energy resources held hostage
• Many of the world’s population repressed and
isolated from growth and prosperity
• Extremists with the resources to carry-on
continued attacks
• Countries isolated from a global trading economy
• Other religious beliefs repressed
• American security and standard of living at
jeopardy
Why No Attacks on American Soil
Since 9-11? (1)
• Another attack remains an ambition
• The jihadists lack capability?
• Improved intelligence and security measures
have made operation environment too difficult?
• They certainly could do something
• Anything below 9-11 scale would appear feeble
• They are patient--8 years between '93 WTC
bombing and 9-11
Why No Attacks on American Soil
Since 9-11? (2)
• They are exploiting opportunities in Iraq right now?
• Locals won't act without approval?
• If al Qaeda planning (or has ambitions for)
another big one, a lesser attack now would make
it more difficult--attack when the enemy is
inattentive
• Local recruits instructed to prepare themselves--a
crackdown is expected
• A strategy of "many Madrids?"
What is next for Al Qaeda?
• Al Qaeda will strike the
US again.
• It will be as big or bigger
than 9/11.
• It could be tomorrow, next
year, or in 20 years.
• Remember, Al Qaeda is
patient.
• Bin Laden wants us to
leave the Middle East and
give up our support of
Israel.
• “His aim is to force us to
consider whether
continued support of Israel
is worth the bloodshed he
promises.” John Miller as
quoted in TOEE, 260.
Why are we losing the War on Terror?
•
Faulty analysis of OBL and his threat.
•
Al Qaeda is not a typical terrorist
group. It is multinational and not
state sponsored. Most terrorist
experts have underestimated
OBL and Al Qaeda because of
the latter. Most so called experts
are trying to analyze OBL as a
‘normal’ terrorist, when he is
anything but. He and his
followers are motivated by
religion and the belief that they
are doing God’s will. This makes
them much more dangerous than
someone fighting for a worldly
cause.
• “Islamic fundamentalism
represents a minority that would
impose religious doctrine from
and earlier historical era….The
vast majority of Muslims
worldwide do not support
violence.” Richard Mackenzie
as quoted in TOEE, p. 300.
• “This war is fundamentally
religious. Under no
circumstances should we forget
this enmity between us and the
infidels For the enmity is based
on creed.” OBL, quoted in
TOEE, p. 19.
Faulty analysis of OBL and his
threat.
• “If he had the wherewithal to
kill Americans and attack U.S.
targets he would do so, but he
doesn’t…..as long as he’s in
Afghanistan, as long as he
doesn’t have access to a cell
phone,….his ability to pan and
conduct terrorist operation is
extremely limited.” Unnamed
State Department
Counterterrorism Official,
1999, from TOEE p. 22.
• “I just don’t think a guy in a
cave in Afghanistan can send
off e-mails over satellite phone
ordering mass destruction
anywhere in the world. Real life
is not like James Bond movies,
It is just not that easy to hold
the world ransom.” London
based Security consultant as
quoted in TOEE, p. 302.
Different Styles of War
• Bin Laden is using a “no holds barred” style of
war by attacking civilian and military targets.
• “He (OBL) and other Islamic activists appreciate
that neither the U.S. nor Israel can politically
afford high levels of military casualties, as
previous events in Beirut, Somalia, and Southern
Lebanon have shown. Professor Magnus
Rainstorm in TOEE, 209.
• The US, on the other had is obsessed with trying
to keep casualties on our side, and theirs, low.
• We will lose if we continue in this manner.
Imperial Hubris
• We think we are right!
• We have to understand that
sometimes our actions, no
matter how good they seem
to us, are viewed by others
as harmful to them. We
need to understand that the
American way does not
work for everyone. We need
to analyze our foreign
policies to see if they are
worth the backlash. If they
are, we need to be prepared
to accept it.
How Do We Win?
• Get tough or get out.
• We cannot underestimate them,
therefore fighting a limited war.
• We cannot continue to fight a
politically correct war.
• Think WWII not Vietnam.
• We have to kill those who hope
to hurt us.
• The public needs to be educated
about the costs.
• “The range of American policy
options in the [Middle East]
region is reduced to two
alternatives, both disagreeable:
Get tough or get out.”
• “Westerners have learned, by harsh
experience, that the proper response [when
attacked by Islamic raiders] is not to take
fright but to marshal their forces, to launch
massive retaliation and to persist
relentlessly until the raiders have either
been eliminated or so coed by the violence
inflicted that they relapse into
inactivity…the world must learn again that
the United States, when severely
antagonized, is to be feared; that it grinds
its mortal enemies to powder as it did sixty
years ago, that the widespread view in
extremist Islamic circles that it (US) is
cowardly, decadent, and easily intimidated
by the thought of casualties is false.”
How Do We Win?
• Reform the Immigration
System.
• We need to know who
is in our country.
• We need to be able to
keep track of the
people in our country.
• We need to be able to
get them out when
their visa’s expire.
How do we win?
• Get Off Oil
• We need to invest in
alternative energy sources.
• Not only will this help the
environment, it will make our
nation a safer place.
• If we get off oil, we will have
no reason to be in the Middle
East, thereby making our
country safer.
• “Persian Gulf oil and the lack of
serious U.S. alternative-energy
development are at the core of the
bin Laden issue. For cheap, easily
accessible oil, Washington and the
West have supported the Muslim
tyrannies bin Laden and other
Islamists seek to destroy. There
can be no other reason for backing
Saudi Arabia, a regime that, since
its founding, has deliberately
fostered an Islamic ideology,
whose goals- unlike bin Laden’scan be met only by annihilating all
non-Muslims.” Scheuer, IH, pg. xi.
Most important point!
• Killing Osama Bin Laden will not end the
problem.
• There are many who agree with him and someone
will replace him upon his death.
• According to a friend of bin Laden’s #2 man, “The
fundamentalist movement’s leaders are ideas, a
heritage, a stature, and principles that do not
disappear when they (Bin Laden and other
leaders) disappear.”
• We need to solve the problems that have led to bin
Laden and others hating us.