1
CIR will pass – growing bipartisan support
Sargent 10/29 (Greg, columnist for the Washington Post. “Immigration reform is sort of undead”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/10/29/immigration-reform-is-sort-ofundead/)
We now have two House Republicans on record supporting the immigration reform bill introduced by
House Democrats, a version of the Senate bill that gets rid of one border security amendment disliked by House Dems and replaces it
with another security measure that has House bipartisan support. Which is to say that immigration reform is just a bit more
undead than it was yesterday. GOP Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida today signed on to the Democratic bill, after GOP Rep. Jeff
Denham did the same over the weekend. This measure is unlikely to get a vote in the House. But Dems have not given up on the
possibility that House Republicans will allow a vote on something immigration related this year. Proreform Republicans are also not giving up. Here is what GOP Rep. Denham told my Post colleague Peter Wallsten: As for
whether his party leadership would let votes happen on any immigration proposals, Denham said he expects the House will get the chance to
address the issue in some fashion. “They’ve told me that we’re going to have this [issue] on the floor by the end of the year.” I followed up with
Denham’s office for more clarification, and got back this quote from Denham: “I’ve
spoken with various members of
leadership on this issue. They have told me and said publicly that they expect to see a vote on this
issue by the year’s end.”
Economic engagement with Mexico is politically divisive despite supporters
Wilson 13 – Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International. Center for
Scholars (Christopher E., January, “A U.S.-Mexico Economic Alliance: Policy Options for a Competitive
Region,” http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/new_ideas_us_mexico_relations.pdf)
At a time when Mexico is poised to experience robust economic growth, a manufacturing renaissance is underway in North America and bilateral trade is booming,
the United States and Mexico have an important choice to make: sit back and reap the moderate and perhaps temporal
benefits coming naturally from the evolving global context , or implement a robust agenda to improve the competitiveness of North America for the long term .
Given that job creation and economic growth in both the United States and Mexico are at stake, the
choice should be simple, but a limited understanding about the magnitude, nature and depth of the
U.S.-Mexico economic relationship among the public and many policymakers has made serious action
to support regional exporters more politically divisive than it ought to be.
CIR’s critical to economic growth---multiple internals
Klein 13 (Ezra is a columnist for The Washington Post. “To Fix the U.S. Economy, Fix Immigration,”
1/29, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-29/to-fix-the-u-s-economy-fix-immigration.html)
Washington tends to have a narrow view of what counts as “economic policy.” Anything we do to the tax code is in. So is any stimulus we pass,
or any deficit reduction we try. Most of this mistakes the federal budget for the economy.¶ The truth is, the
most important piece of
economic policy we pass -- or don’t pass -- in 2013may be something we don’t think of as economic policy at all:
immigration reform.¶ Congress certainly doesn’t consider it economic policy, at least not officially. Immigration laws go through the
House and Senate judiciary committees. But consider a few facts about immigrants in the American economy: About a tenth of the U.S.
population is foreign-born. More
than a quarter of U.S. technology and engineering businesses started from
1995 to 2005 had a foreign-born owner. In Silicon Valley, half of all tech startups had a foreign-born
founder.¶Immigrants begin businesses and file patents at a much higher rate than their native-born
counterparts, and while there are disputes about the effect immigrants have on the wages of low-income Americans, there’s little
dispute about their effect on wages overall: They lift them.¶The economic case for immigration is best made by way of
analogy. Everyone agrees that aging economies with low birth rates are in trouble; this, for example, is a thoroughly
conventional view of Japan. It’s even conventional wisdom about the U.S. The retirement of the baby boomers
is correctly understood as an economic challenge. The ratio of working Americans to retirees will fall from 5-to-1 today to
3-to-1 in 2050. Fewer workers and more retirees is tough on any economy.¶ Importing Workers¶ There’s nothing
controversial about that analysis. But if that’s not controversial, then immigration shouldn’t be, either. Immigration is essentially
the importation of new workers. It’s akin to raising the birth rate, only easier, because most of the newcomers
are old enough to work. And because living in the U.S. is considered such a blessing that even very skilled,
very industrious workers are willing to leave their home countries and come to ours, the U.S. has an
unusual amount to gain from immigration. When it comes to the global draft for talent, we almost
always get the first-round picks -- at least, if we want them, and if we make it relatively easy for them
to come here.¶ From the vantage of naked self-interest, the wonder isn’t that we might fix our broken immigration system in 2013. It’s
that we might not.¶Few economic problems wouldn’t be improved by more immigration.If you’re worried
about deficits, more young, healthy workers paying into Social Security and Medicare are an obvious
boon. If you’re concerned about the slowdown in new company formation and its attendant effects
on economic growth, more immigrant entrepreneurs should cheer you. If you’re worried about the
dearth of science and engineering majors in our universities, an influx of foreign-born students is the
most obvious solution you’ll find.
Economic crisis causes war
Royal, ‘10 [2010, Jedediah Royal is the Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S.
Department of Defense, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,
Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives”, ed. By Goldsmith and Brauer,
p. 213-215]
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. Political science literature has contributed a
moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence behaviour of interdependent stales. Research in
this vein has been considered at systemic, dyadic and national levels. Several notable contributions follow. First, on the systemic level. Pollins
(20081 advances Modclski and Thompson's (1996) work on leadership cycle theory, finding that rhythms
in the global economy
are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one
pre-eminent leader to the next. As such, exogenous shocks such as economic crises could usher in a
redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin. 19SJ) that leads to uncertainty about power balances,
increasing the risk of miscalculation (Fcaron. 1995). Alternatively, even a relatively certain redistribution of
power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a
declining power (Werner. 1999). Separately. Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership
cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major, medium and small powers, although he suggests that the causes and connections
between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. Second, on a dyadic level. Copeland's (1996. 2000) theory of
trade expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security
behaviour of states. He argues that interdependent states arc likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of
future trade relations. However, if
the expectations of future trade decline, particularly for difficult to replace
items such as energy resources, the likelihood for conflict increases, as states will be inclined to use
force to gain access to those resources. Crises could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own
or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states.4 Third, others have considered the link between
economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. Mom berg and Hess (2002) find a strong
correlation between internal conflict and external conflict, particularly during periods of economic
downturn. They write. The linkage, between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and
mutually reinforcing. Economic conflict lends to spawn internal conflict, which in turn returns the favour.
Moreover, the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external
conflicts self-reinforce each other (Hlomhen? & Hess. 2(102. p. X9> Economic decline has also been linked with
an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blombcrg. Hess. & Wee ra pan a, 2004). which has the capacity to spill
across borders and lead to external tensions. Furthermore, crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting
government. "Diversionary theory" suggests that, when facing unpopularity arising from economic
decline, sitting governments have increased incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create
a 'rally around the flag' effect. Wang (1996), DcRoucn (1995), and Blombcrg. Hess, and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence
showing that economic decline and use of force arc at least indirecti) correlated. Gelpi (1997). Miller (1999). and Kisangani and Pickering (2009)
suggest that Ihe tendency towards diversionary tactics arc greater for democratic states than autocratic states, due to the fact that democratic
leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence
showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United States, and thus weak Presidential popularity, are statistically linked lo an
increase in the use of force. In summary, rcccni economic scholarship
positively correlates economic integration with
an increase in the frequency of economic crises, whereas political science scholarship links economic
decline with external conflict al systemic, dyadic and national levels.' This implied connection between integration, crises and armed
conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention.
2
Text – The President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology should direct the
Department of Energy to include a Quadrennial Energy Review as an addendum to the
Quadrennial Technology Review. The President’s Council of Advisors on Science and
Technology should direct the Department of Energy to include a recommendation to
offer Mexico to facilitate a substantial increase in United States’ importation of
Mexican jatropha biofuels as a part of the Quadrennial Energy Review.
Competes---the CP’s policy statement is not legally binding---it doesn’t enact the plan,
it simply recommends its mandates
Charles H. Koch 5, the Dudley W. Woodbridge Professor of Law, William and Mary School of Law,
Spring 2005, “Policymaking by the Administrative Judiciary,” Alabama Law Review, 56 Ala. L. Rev. 693, p.
lexis n110 E.g., Consol Edison Co of New York v. FERC, 315 F.3d 316, 323 (D.C. Cir 2003)
"Policy statements" differ from substantive rules that carry the "force of law," because they lack
"present binding effect " on the agency. When an agency hears a case under an established policy statement, it may
decide the case using that policy statement if the decision is not otherwise arbitrary and capricious. Id. n111 One brand of nonlegislative rule,
"statements
of policy," may not have a binding effect on the agency, resulting in even more ambiguous
distinguish statements of policy from other nonlegislative
rules because the latter are not "binding norms" which control the agency For example, the D.C. Circuit
described a statement of policy in these terms An agency policy statementdoes not seek to impose or elaborate or
interpret a legal norm. It merely represents an agency position with respect to how it will treat--typically
enforce--the governing legal norm By issuing a policy statement, an agency simply lets the public know its
current enforcement or adjudicatory approach . . . Policy statements are binding on neither the
application to administrative judges Several courts
public, nor the agency Syncor Int'l Corp v. Shalala, 127 F.3d 90, 94 (D.C. Cir. 1997). A statement might not be
binding because it serves the dual purpose of "informing the public of the agency's future
plansand priorities for exercising its discretionary power," as well as educating and providing direction to agency
personnel who are required to implement the agency's policies and exercise its discretionary powers in specific cases. Mada-Luna v.
Fitzpatrick, 813 F.2d 1006, 1013 (9th Cir. 1987). A statement acts only prospectively and it does not establish a "binding norm." Id. at 1014
Nonetheless, even a statement may confine the agency's discretion where it would be unfair to deny the statement some effect. Ronald Levin
urges that statements and interpretative rules have virtually the same effect Ronald in Levin, Nonlegislative Rules and the Administrative
Open Mind, 41 DUKE L J 1497, 1503 (1992).
The counterplan solves the entirely of the aff, and avoids the links to politics.
Jones -11 (Richard M. Jones, Government Relations Division, American Institute of Physics, March 24, 2011, FYI: The AIP Bulletin of
Science Policy News, http://www.aip.org/fyi/2011/039.html)
Individuals have until April 15 to file comments with the Department of Energy (DOE) about a new review of its energy technology activities.
First recommended
by the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), the resulting
DOE Q uadrennial T echnology R eview will “provide a content and framework for the Department’s energy
programs, as well as principles by which to establish plans with a five-year horizon.” In late November 2010,
a PCAST working group released a “Report to the President on Accelerating the Pace of Change in Energy Technologies Though an Integrated
Federal Policy.” This working group recommended that an interagency review be periodically conducted of
the federal government’s energy policies and programs.Modeled after the well-regarded Quadrennial
Defense Review, the working group called for a Quadrennial Energy Review (QER), describing it as
follows: “A QER process would, in some sense, formulate an integrated energy policy for the twenty-first century.
It will span mission and vision definition, strategy, and tactics. The QER and the process leading to it would
provide an effective tool for Administration-wide coherence on energy and for effective dialog with
Congress on a coordinated legislative agenda. Presidential interest and engagement will be a
necessary ingredient for success.” Realizing that it would take time to ramp up this review across all agencies of the federal
government, the working group recommended that DOE undertake its own QER as a first step. That recommendation is now being implemented. Several documents have been
released. The first is a 40-page “framing document.” DOE explains that: “This framing document is a principal means of facilitating stakeholder engagement in that process. It describes the
nation’s energy landscape and challenges, identifies important research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) policy choices to be made, and summarizes the current status of selected
energy technologies and DOE technology program goals. It is intended to serve as the common framework for stakeholder engagement through advisory committees, workshops, and expert
discussion groups.” Sections within this document review the “U.S. Energy Context,” “Challenges Posed by Today’s Energy Landscape” (with sections on energy security, competitiveness, and
environmental impacts), “DOE Activities,” “Crosscutting Questions” (which includes a section on various components of technology policy) and “Six Strategies.” Three of these strategies
pertain to transportation; the other three to stationary systems. Throughout this document are references to basic research, and the role of the Office of Science in supporting it. Other DOE
agencies support a broad array of research in different areas. In all, approximately $4.3 billion is spent by the department on energy research. It is important to note that in discussing the DOEQTR, the framing document explains that it will include a review of the roles of national laboratories and universities in energy system
transformation, stating: “The
objective will be to include enough detail to enable the other objectives of the DOE-QTR, not to lay out detailed programmatic or technological
roadmaps for wider application. The
DOE-QTR will also establish principles by which the Department can judge
the priority of various technology efforts. Rather than an ordered prioritization of technologies or activities, these
principles will be useful to guide the budget process , which is the appropriate mechanism to set
priorities.” Further information on the DOE-QTR can be found at this website. It provides information on the QTR Team, led by Under
Secretary for Science Steven Koonin, and links to the framing document and an announcement in the Federal Register with instructions on
submitting comments. Wrote Koonin in announcing the framing document: “I solicit your involvement, beginning with a close reading of the
framing document and your responses to the questions it poses.”
3
A. Interpretation – “economic engagement” means the aff must be an exclusively
economic action – it cannot encompass broader forms of engagement
Jakstaite, 10 - Doctoral Candidate Vytautas Magnus University Faculty of Political Sciences and
Diplomacy (Lithuania) (Gerda, “CONTAINMENT AND ENGAGEMENT AS MIDDLE-RANGE THEORIES”
BALTIC JOURNAL OF LAW & POLITICS VOLUME 3, NUMBER 2 (2010), DOI: 10.2478/v10076-010-0015-7)
The approach to engagement as economic engagement focuses exclusively on economic instruments
of foreign policy with the main national interest being security. Economic engagement is a policy of the conscious
development of economic relations with the adversary in order to change the target state‟s behaviour
and to improve bilateral relations .94 Economic engagement is academically wielded in several respects. It recommends that the
state engage the target country in the international community (with the there existing rules) and modify the target state‟s run foreign policy,
thus preventing the emergence of a potential enemy.95 Thus, this strategy aims to ensure safety in particular, whereas economic benefit is not
a priority objective. Objectives of economic engagement indicate that this form of engagement is designed for relations with problematic
countries – those that pose a potential danger to national security of a state that implements economic engagement. Professor of the
University of California Paul Papayoanou and University of Maryland professor Scott Kastner say that economic engagement should be used in
relations with the emerging powers: countries which accumulate more and more power, and attempt a new division of power in the
international system – i.e., pose a serious challenge for the status quo in the international system (the latter theorists have focused specifically
on China-US relations). These theorists also claim that economic engagement is recommended in relations with emerging powers whose
regimes are not democratic – that is, against such players in the international system with which it is difficult to agree on foreign policy by other
means.96 Meanwhile, other supporters of economic engagement (for example, professor of the University of California Miles Kahler) are not as
categorical and do not exclude the possibility to realize economic engagement in relations with democratic regimes.97 Proponents of economic
engagement believe that the economy may be one factor which leads to closer relations and cooperation (a more peaceful foreign policy and
the expected pledge to cooperate) between hostile countries – closer economic ties will develop the target state‟s dependence on economic
engagement implementing state for which such relations will also be cost-effective (i.e., the mutual dependence). However, there are some
important conditions for the economic factor in engagement to be effective and bring the desired results. P. Papayoanou and S. Kastner note
that economic engagement gives the most positive results when initial economic relations with the target state is minimal and when the target
state‟s political forces are interested in development of international economic relations. Whether economic relations will encourage the
target state to develop more peaceful foreign policy and willingness to cooperate will depend on the extent to which the target state‟s forces
with economic interests are influential in internal political structure. If the target country‟s dominant political coalition includes the leaders or
groups interested in the development of international economic relations, economic ties between the development would bring the desired
results. Academics note that in non-democratic countries in particular leaders often have an interest to pursue economic cooperation with the
powerful economic partners because that would help them maintain a dominant position in their own country.98 Proponents of economic
engagement do not provide a detailed description of the means of this form of engagement, but identify a number of possible variants of
engagement: conditional economic engagement, using the restrictions caused by economic dependency and unconditional economic
engagement by exploiting economic dependency caused by the flow. Conditional economic engagement, sometimes called
linkage or economic carrots engagement, could be described as conflicting with economic sanctions. A state that implements this form of
engagement instead of menacing to use sanctions for not changing policy course promises
for a target state to provide more
economic benefits in return for the desired political change. Thus, in this case economic ties are developed depending
on changes in the target state‟s behaviour.99 Unconditional economic engagement is more moderate form of engagement.
Engagement applying state while developing economic relations with an adversary hopes that the resulting economic
dependence over time will change foreign policy course of the target state and reduce the likelihood of armed
conflict. Theorists assume that economic dependence may act as a restriction of target state‟s foreign policy or as transforming factor that
changes target state‟s foreign policy objectives.100 Thus, economic engagement focuses solely on economic measures
(although theorists do not give a more detailed description), on strategically important actors of the international arena and includes other
types of engagement, such as the conditional-unconditional economic engagement.
B. Violation – Tech and energy are non-economic engagement
Australian Government, 11 (“The White Paper and Australia’s Strategic Relationship with China”, 9/28
http://asiancentury.dpmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/public-submissions/nd.doc
Australia risks losing a healthy relationship with Asia due to overdependence on trade relations and shortcomings of soft power. As trade and
economic ties continue to grow between Australia and China,
non-economic bilateral relations must be improved in
order for general engagement to remain stable. To keep pace with the Asian Century, Australia must strive to find greater
common ground with China outside of trade and commerce. The White Paper should take into consideration issues of non-economic relations
in order to fully address Australia’s long term relationship with China. Some
possible considerations for the White Paper to
take into account in building a strategy for improving non-economic engagement
Increased
frequency of diplomatic visits and high-level visits; building a policy for minimum frequency and level of such diplomatic
Increasing volume and breadth of non-diplomatic high-level exchanges such as academic
conferences, exchange trips between sister agencies, and two-way exchanges between schools by dramatically increasing government
Encouraging bilateral cooperation and partnerships between noneconomically driven organisations such as public sector agencies and think tanks for the purpose of fostering
Encouraging cultural literacy in
the Australian population through people-to-people exchange, tourism, and language training; in
particular encouraging Mandarin study for nonIncreasing funding for China-Australia
partnerships on development in science, math, energy, environment and technology; mitigating the risk and
Cultivating soft power through aid funding
and development projects
C. Voting issue –
1. Limits – they explode the topic – blurring the lines between economic and other
forms of engagement makes any positive interaction with another country topical. It’s
impossible to predict or prepare
2. Ground – the economic limit is vital to critiques of economics, trade disads, and
non-economic counterplans
4
Text: The United States federal government should provide tax credits for the
development, production, and/or substantial increase in United States’ importation of
Mexican advanced biofuels except Jatropha biofuels.
More incentives key to biofuels – solves commitment
Environmental News Service – 10/11/11, Cellulosic Ethanol Production Far Behind Renewable Fuel
Standard, http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/oct2011/2011-10-11-093.html
The United States is not likely to reach cellulosic ethanol production mandates spelled out in the
federal Renewable Fuel Standard by 2022 unless "innovative technologies are developed or policies
change," says a new congressionally-requested report from the National Research Council.¶Cellulosic ethanol is a biofuel
produced from wood, grasses, or the non-edible parts of plants, such as corncobs or citrus peels. The report says a cloud of "uncertainty" surrounds environmental
and economic benefits expected to result from use of this biofuel. ¶ "The Renewable Fuel Standard may be an ineffective policy for reducing global greenhouse gas
emissions," said Ingrid Burke, co-chair of the NRC panel that issued the report and a botany professor at the University of Wyoming. ¶ In 2005, Congress enacted the
Renewable Fuel Standard as part of the Energy Policy Act and amended it in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. The aim of the RFS is to encourage
development of biofuels, lower dependence on foreign oil, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. ¶ The law mandates that by 2022 the United States must produce
16 billion gallons of cellulosic biofuels, along with 15 billion gallons of conventional corn-based ethanol, one billion gallons of biodiesel, and four billion gallons of
advanced biofuels.¶ While production of ethanol and biodiesel already exceed the mandate, no
commercial cellulosic biofuels plants
exist and technologies are at demonstration scale.¶ Several industrial-scale cellulosic ethanol plants are being built in the United
States, including an Abengoa bioenergy biomass plant in Kansas expected to start production in 2013, and an expansion of Poet's conventional ethanol plant in
Iowa.¶ Project Liberty will be Poet's first commercial-scale, cellulosic ethanol plant. Scheduled to begin operations in 2013, it is expected to produce 25 million
gallons of ethanol per year from corncobs, leaves and husks, provided by Iowa farmers. In September, Poet received final approval for a $105 million loan guarantee
for Project Liberty issued through the U.S. Department of Energy's Loan programs Office.¶ But this year cellulosic biofuel output is likely to be 6.6 million gallons, far
below the RFS target for 2011 of 250 million gallons, the report points out. ¶ The corn ethanol industry has been developing for 30 years, said Wallace Tyner, NRC
panel co-chair and an agricultural economics professor at Purdue University. "We have more than 200 corn ethanol plants producing more than 14 billion gallons
today. We have only 11 years to reach even higher numbers for cellulosic biofuels." ¶ The report finds that although biofuels hold potential for providing net
environmental benefits compared with using petroleum-based fuels, specific environmental outcomes from increasing biofuels production to meet the renewable
fuel consumption mandate cannot be guaranteed. ¶ The type of feedstocks produced, management practices used, land-use changes that feedstock production
might require, and such site-specific details as prior land use and regional water availability will determine the mandate's environmental effects, the report says.¶
Biofuels production has been shown to have both positive and negative effects on water quality, soil, and biodiversity. But air-quality modeling suggests that
production and use of ethanol to displace gasoline is likely to increase air pollutants such as particulate matter, ozone, and sulfur oxides. ¶ In addition, published
estimates of water use over the life cycle of corn-grain ethanol are higher than petroleum-based fuels.¶ Renewable fuels advocates criticized the NRC committee for
is narrow focus and said a broader view of the entire industry is required to accurately evaluate the likelihood of cellulosic biofuel to meet the mandated
requirements.¶ "Global demand for energy continues to escalate yet this report chooses to focus with laser-like precision on the perceived shortcomings of
conventional and next-generation biofuels. Instead, we should be comparing the relative costs and benefits of all future energy options," said Renewable Fuels
Association Vice President Geoff Cooper, who testified before the National Research Council committee tasked with drafting the report. ¶ "Biofuels are increasingly
displacing and delaying the need for marginal sources of petroleum - like Canadian tar sands and shale oil - that come with extreme environmental and economic
costs," said Cooper. "American ethanol production continues to evolve, reducing water and energy requirements while producing increasing amounts of fuel and
livestock feed."¶ The report does recognize some of the improvements in biofuels production, said Cooper, but "it also rehashes many of the well-worn criticisms
that have been discredited time and again."¶ As for the report's key finding, Cooper said theRenewable
Fuels Association shares the
committee's view that commercializing advanced and cellulosic ethanol technologies will require
more policy certainty and a recommitment to reducing oil import dependency.¶ The RFA has long
called for an extension of cellulosic ethanol tax incentives and a repeal of decades-old subsidies for the oil industry, totaling at
least $4 billion a year in direct benefits.¶ Advanced Ethanol Council Executive Director Brooke Coleman, too, was critical of the report. "The most glaring problem is
the Council analyzed the ongoing development of the biofuels industry in a vacuum, as if these fuels are not displacing the marginal barrel of oil, which comes at
great economic and environmental cost to the consumer. Congress was seeking a sober analysis of the RFS, and regrettably, this is not it."¶ "The idea that the RFS
may not be an effective strategy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions is regrettable given the published science on the subject," said Coleman. "Even with land use
change considerations, advanced biofuels are the lowest carbon fuels being developed in the marketplace; far and away less carbon intensive than electricity,
natural gas and even hydrogen fuel cells."
Case
Mexico
Mexican economic growth is unsustainable
Sosa et al 13
(May 2013, Sebastián Sosa, economist at the International Monetary Fund, Regional Studies Division of
the Western Hemisphere Department, focusing on macroeconomic issues in Latin America, and
previously served on the teams for Bolivia, Mexico, Uruguay, and Lebanon. Prior to joining the IMF, he
was a professor (macroeconomics) at the Universidad de la República, and researcher at CERES (Center
for the Study of Economic and Social Affairs), Evridiki Tsounta, Economist in the Regional Studies
Division of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department, and Hye Sun Kim, Research Assistant in the
Regional Studies Division of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department. At the IMF, she has worked on
regional macroeconomic issues in Latin America and Asia and was part of the teams for Bangladesh and
Lao P.D.R. She has also worked on financial sector issues, focusing on emerging markets, “Western
Hemisphere Time to Rebuild Policy Space”,
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2013/whd/eng/pdf/wreo0513.pdf]
¶ This envisaged growth deceleration (from the recent high growth to projected potential growth rates) reflects lower
contributions from all sources in the coming years: ¶ Growth of physical capital is expected to moderate somewhat,
reflecting a normalization of the easy external financing conditions and the stabilization of commodity prices—both key factors driving the
recent strong domestic and foreign direct investment in the region. The
contribution of labor to output growth in the
future will likely be limited by some natural constraints (Figure 3.5), including: (i) population ageing (the dependency ratio is
expected to reach its minimum over the next years in several countries); (ii) limited scope to further increase labor force
participation rates (including for females), which are relatively high already by international standards; and (iii) record low
unemployment rates (which declined significantly, now representing a key driver of the labor contribution to output growth).
Stronger contributions from human capital will require important improvements in the quality of
schooling.¶ TFP growth would also slow down, in line with the normalization of the business cycle.
Therefore, TFP performance, which remains a concern despite its recent improvement, will be pivotal to sustain high growth
rates in the region.
Drug violence declining
Bargent 2-7
James, Independent journalism from Colombia and Latin America, “Mexico Drug War Violence Slowing:
Report”, Febraury 7th, 2013, http://www.insightcrime.org/news-briefs/mexico-drug-war-violenceslowing-report
A new report analyzing the data behind Mexico’s drug war shows in 2012 organized crime related killings declined or leveled
off while becoming increasingly concentrated in key strategic areas. The report, compiled by the San Diego University’s Trans-Border
Institute, analyzed a range of data sources -- both official and independent -- to build a comprehensive picture of the shifting
violence patterns in Mexico. The most significant trend identified was the slowing rate of drug war killings. While the
conclusions of different data sets varied widely, they agreed that in 2012 the substantial year on year increases Mexico has seen since 2007
came to an end. According to data collated by Mexican newspaper Reforma, organized crime related murders
dropped by over 21
percent, falling to 8,989 from 12,284. Projections for the government’s as yet unreleased figures show a 28% drop. However, figures from
another media source, Milenio, showed an increase in its crime related murder tallies but by less than 1 percent – far lower than in previous
years. The report also highlights how Mexico’s drug war violence is increasingly concentrated. Between 2007 and 2011, the number of
municipalities that recorded no murders dropped by 28 percent, while the number of municipalities with 25 or more annual homicides grew
from 50 to 240. However, in 2012, (for which, the report points out, the data set is incomplete) the number of municipalities free from violence
increased 16% while the number with more than 25 homicides decreased more than 25% to 178. Over half the organized crime linked murders
nationwide came from just five states; Sinaloa, Chihuaha, Nuevo Leon, Guerrero and Coahuila (although the order depends of the data set).
2012 also saw Acapulco assume the mantle of Mexico’s most violent city, even though the murder rate leveled off, while the cities of
Monterrey, Torreon, and Nuevo Laredo posted the largest increases in crime related killings. InSight Crime While the authorities will probably
lay claim to the slowdown in drug violence, it is likely a more influential factor has been changing dynamics in the Mexican underworld, as
reflected by the shifting geographical patterns.
No spillover to other Latin American countries
No Mexican Collapse
Couch 2012
Neil, Brigadier, British Army, July 2012, “Mexico in Danger of Rapid Collapse’: Reality or Exaggeration?,”
http://www.da.mod.uk/colleges/rcds/publications/seaford-house-papers/2012-seaford-housepapers/SHP-2012-Couch.pdf
A ‘collapsed’ state, however, as postulated in the Pentagon JOE paper, suggests ‘a total vacuum of authority’, the state having become a ‘mere
geographical expression’.16 Such
an extreme hypothesis of Mexico disappearing like those earlier European states
seems implausible for a country that currently has the world’s 14th largest economy and higher predicted growth
than either the UK, Germany or the USA; that has no external threat from aggressive neighbours, which was the ‘one constant’ in the
European experience according to Tilly; and does not suffer the ‘disharmony between communities’ that Rotberg says is a feature common
amongst failed states.17,18 A review of the literature does not reveal why the JOE paper might have suggested criminal gangs and drug cartels
as direct causes leading to state collapse. Crime and corruption tend to be described not as causes but as symptoms demonstrating failure. For
example, a study for Defense Research and Development Canada attempting to build a predictive model for proximates of state failure barely
mentions either.19 One of the principal scholars on the subject, Rotberg, says that in failed states, ‘corruption flourishes’ and ‘gangs and
criminal syndicates assume control of the streets’, but again as effect rather than trigger.20 The Fund for Peace Failed States Index, does not
use either of them as a ‘headline’ indicator, though both are used as contributory factors. This absence may reflect an assessment that
numerous states suffer high levels of organised crime and corruption and nevertheless do not fail. Mandel
describes the corruption and extreme violence of the Chinese Triads, Italian Mafia, Japanese Yakuza and the Russian Mob that, in some cases,
has continued for centuries.21 Yet none of these countries were singled out as potential collapsed or failed states in the Pentagon’s paper.
Indeed, thousands of Americans were killed in gang warfare during Prohibition and many people ‘knew or at least suspected that politicians,
judges, lawyers, bankers and business concerns collected many millions of dollars from frauds, bribes and various forms of extortion’.22
Organised crime and corruption were the norm in the political, business, and judicial systems and police forces ran their own ‘rackets’ rather
than enforcing the law.23 Neither the violence nor the corruption led to state failure.
Their uniqueness evidence is from 2012 – Inevitable TBHA passage will solve energy
opportunities
Duncan 6-25-13(Representative, Senator from South Carolina, “STATEMENT OF ADMINISTRATION
POLICY H.R. 1613 – Outer Continental Shelf Transboundary” June 25th, 2013,
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/legislative/sap/113/saphr1613r_20130625.pdf)
Most significantly, the Administration strongly objects to exempting actions taken by public ¶ companies in accordance with transboundary
hydrocarbon agreements from requirements under ¶ section 1504 of the Dodd-Frank Act and the Securities and Exchange Commission's
Natural ¶ Resource Extraction Disclosure Rule. As a practical matter, this provision would waive the ¶ requirement for the disclosure of any
payments made by resource extraction companies to the ¶ United States or foreign governments in accordance with a transboundary
hydrocarbon agreement.¶The provision directly and negatively impacts U.S. efforts to increase transparency and ¶ accountability, particularly in
the oil, gas, and minerals sectors. ¶ The Administration
looks forward to working with the Congress to enact
implementing legislation ¶ that would focus on the U.S.-Mexico Transboundary Agreement, without the
inclusion of ¶ extraneous and unnecessary provisions. The Department of the Interior estimates that the ¶transboundary area subject to the
Western Gap Treaty moratorium contains as much as 172 million ¶ barrels of oil and 304 billion cubic feet of natural gas. Implementing
this Agreement will offer ¶ significant opportunities for responsible and efficient exploration and
development of hydrocarbon ¶ resources in an expanded area along the U.S.-Mexico maritime boundary as well as
significant new ¶ opportunities for U.S. companies.
Drug violence inevitable
Olson 9
Eric L., M.A., International Affairs, American University; B.A., History and Secondary Education, Trinity
College, Associate Director of the Latin American Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center
for Scholars in Washington, as a Senior Specialist in the Department for Promotion of Good Governance
at the Organization of American States, January 2009,
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/The%20U.S.%20and%20Mexico.%20Towards%20a%20Strategic%20Partnership.pdf)
It is time to strengthen the U.S. relationship with Mexico. !ere are few countries—if any—which are as important to the United States as
Mexico. We share more than just a two-thousand mile border. Our economies and societies are deeply interwoven and what happens on one
side of our shared border inevitably affects the other side. As the United States seeks to redefine its role in the world, it is vital to start at home,
with our neighbors. Today is a time of great opportunity in our relationship with Mexico, but also a time of severe challenges. While the two
governments have taken important steps to limit the risk that terrorists will use the shared border as a launching pad for attacks, drug
trafficking organizations have developed a lucrative and deadly cross-border trade that creates significant vulnerabilities for both countries.
Mexican drug trafficking organizations have become increasingly violent in recent years, with over five thousand
deaths tied to narcotics trafficking in 2008 alone, and they have gradually penetrated the institutional framework of the Mexican state,
especially local law enforcement authorities. These
organizations are fueled by persistent demand in the United States:
over twenty million Americans use illegal drugs each month and roughly 15 to 25 billion dollars in profits from U.S. drug sales are
pumped back into to the Mexican economy each year in cash and weapons. !e violence and corruption wrought by drug
trafficking organizations are felt particularly strongly in border communities, but the effects of the trade run deep throughout cities and towns
in both countries. Policymakers in the two countries have a shared interest in working together to develop a comprehensive and bilateral
approach that limits the reach of organized crime. Mexico also remains vital for the U.S. economy, although the current economic slowdown
presents special challenges that will have to be addressed with great care. Mexico is the second destination for U.S. exports, and the first or
second destination of exports for at least twenty two U.S. states. Over six million Americans live in cities and counties on the border and over
60 million in border states, whose economies are particularly tied with Mexico’s. !is degree of integration creates opportunities for more
focused economic cooperation, but also generates risks for spillover effects in times of economic crisis. An economic slowdown in either
country will inevitably affect the other and a full-scale crisis could send shockwaves across the border. Moreover, the persistent wage gap
between the two countries presents a long-term challenge that has been insufficiently addressed in past efforts at deepening cross-border
economic ties. !e United States and Mexico have the opportunity to develop a framework for economic integration that helps to contain the
effect of economic shocks, takes advantage of complementarities to increase the competitive position of both countries, and, above all, places
an emphasis on improving the well-being of average citizens in both countries. Introduction and Overview: A Strategic Approach to U.S.-Mexico
Relations The United States and Mexico: Towards a Strategic Partnership 12Introduction and Overview: Towards a Strategic Partnership with
Mexico : Finally, immigration from Mexico continues to present challenges to policymakers on both sides of the border.
Roughly a third of all immigrants to the United States come from Mexico, including a majority of unauthorized immigrants. Over a tenth of
Mexico’s population now lives in the United States, and three percent of the U.S. population was born in Mexico. Although U.S. immigration
reform will be part of a domestic policy discussion, it will inevitably require U.S. policymakers to speak with their counterparts in Mexico about
how to manage immigration flows and to provide long-term alternatives to migration.
Drug cooperation high
FNL 7-5
July 5, 2013. Fox News Latino. “U.S. Wants More Intelligence Cooperation With Mexico, White House
Report States” http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2013/07/05/us-wants-more-intelligencecooperation-with-mexico-white-house-report-states/#ixzz2aos85oqW
A newly released White House report on the U.S. border with Mexico highlights the Obama administration's strategic shift toward
forgoing a closer working relationship with its southern neighbor. This, despite recent restrictions by Enrique Peña Nieto's government
on who American intelligence services can contact in Mexico. The White House's 2013 National Southwest Border Counternarcotics
Strategy illustrated nine points that focus on interdiction, tackling drug cartels along the border, halting money laundering,
building up stronger communities and strengthening ties between the two nations in terms of counternarcotics. “The U.S.-Mexican bilateral
relationship continues to grow based on strong, multi-layered institutional ties,” the report stated. “Based on
principles of shared responsibility, mutual trust, and respect for sovereign independence, the two countries’ efforts have built confidence that
continues to transform and strengthen the bilateral relationship in 2013 and beyond.” While the U.S. report touts a need for greater
cooperation, new Mexican security policies could hamper that. A recent decision by the Mexican government has ordered a halt in direct
communications between American intelligence agencies and their counterparts south of the border. Now instead of directly consulting local
law enforcement, agencies like the DEA and FBI will have to contact Mexico's Interior Ministry before being passed along through the proper
channels. Intelligence sharing, however, was a major talking point when President Barack Obama met with his Mexican counterpart back in
May. Despite scarce details about the meeting, the two leaders discussed border security and the use of drones along the 1,954-mile shared
border. Peña Nieto downplayed the notion that the new, more centralized arrangement would damage its security partnership with the United
States. He said Obama agreed during their private meeting earlier in the day to "cooperate on the basis of mutual respect" to promote an
efficient and effective strategy. "I think the U.S. government wants to make sure that Peña Nieto is on the same page as Obama, that he wants
to pursue the cartels as consistently and aggressively as [former Mexican President] Calderón did during his presidency," Alex Sanchez, a
security analyst at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, told ABC News. Even as the Obama administration hopes that Peña Nieto will continue to
go on the offensive against the drug cartels in Mexico, the report suggests a more humanitarian approach to the drug war. Besides
counternarcotics efforts, a solid portion of the report concerns community
building measures along the border, ways to deal
with substance abuse and violence, as well as health and education programs. “The crime and breakdown in public
health and safety that affect many border communities has a close nexus with substance use —including abuse of alcohol and other drugs—
can have a far-reaching effect on the resilience of communities,” the report stated. “Heavily Hispanic communities along the border have been
particularly hard hit.” The report’s focus on community building seems to go along with Peña Nieto’s strategy in combating the drug war.
Instead of the “kingpin” approach that his predecessor Felipe Calderón took, which focused on apprehending or killing high-ranking cartel
members, Peña Nieto has moved to a plan to reduce the levels of violence in the country and bolster trust of law enforcement among the
populace. The report has some analysts hopeful that there
will be better working relations between the U.S. and
Mexico, especially in light of the new rules concerning U.S. intelligence agencies. “The election of Peña Nieto sparked vocal concerns among
U.S. political leaders over his stated desire to move priorities away from arrests and drug seizures, and towards violence reduction, and there
have also been reports of tensions between the incoming government and U.S. officials over the level of U.S. involvement in Mexican security
policies,” the Latin American intelligence website Insight Crime stated. “However, the U.S. strategy displays no sign of this friction, only
expressing a desire to increase cooperation, which despite the public murmuring is likely to be the case.”
Corn
High food prices spur biotech development
CBS Money Watch 11(March, “Why Rising Food Prices Mean Good Times for Monsanto and Its Biotech Seeds,” http://www.cbsnews.com/8301505123_162-44042691/why-rising-food-prices-mean-good-times-for-monsanto-and-its-biotech-seeds///MGD)
Global food prices set an all-time record last month and, while this news spells trouble for many -- particularly those in developing countries who
could barely afford food at last year's prices -- it's a big bright spot in Monsanto's (MON) efforts to gain new markets and win greater
acceptance for its genetically modified seeds. It works like this: rising food prices trigger concerns about food shortages,which then ignite a sort of
panic about how we're going to feed a rapidly growing world population -- a fear that plays intoMonsanto's well-disseminatedmessages about how
biotechnology is needed to grow all that additional food.Already, Monsanto and other biotech companies say
they're encountering some newly opened doors. Here's what Hugh Grant, Monsanto's CEO told the Financial Times earlier this week: If you do the
'temperature check' in the world in the past 24 months, a lot of the agricultural areas have made significant policy shifts. The gap in yields between the US and other countries gets magnified
in times of shortage. What he's saying is that because a majority of the soybeans and corn grown in the U.S. are from GE seeds, American farmers get bigger yields per acre (this is a theory, not
biotechnology starts to
looks attractive, especially for developing countries facing crop shortages. According to DuPont's Daniel Rahier, who oversees the company's biotech policy for Europe, Africa and
Asia, some of the countries whose resistance to GE crops is melting include Vietnam, Cambodia, Kenya and Indonesia. He explained it this way: In Indonesia, for example, it
was in recent years very difficult to make progress on biotechnology.Now, the government is actively
encouraging companies to file applications to get approvals for biotech seeds. There's no question that over the next several
decades we'll need a lot morecorn, soybeans, wheat and othercrops. The Earth's population is projected to grow by another 2 billion people by 2050 and some 3
a settled issue) and they have also an easier time managing pests and weeds (this one is largely true). If you buy into these arguments, then
billion people are moving up the food chain and consuming more meat, which requires more grain. But as for what sort of agriculture should be used to meet these needs -- that's still an open
question.
Advancing biotech industry solves bioterrorism
Smith et al 03- *fellow at the Center for Biosecurity of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, **Director of the Center for Biosecurity of UPMC,
Chair of the Board of Scientific Counselors, Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response at the CDC, *** Under Secretary of the Science and Technology
Directorate of the Department of Homeland Security.(BRADLEY T. SMITH, THOMAS V. INGLESBY, and TARA O’TOOLE “Biodefense R&D: Anticipating Future Threats,
Establishing a Strategic Environment,” Biosecurity and Bioterrorism. Volume 1, Number 3, 2003 http://www.upmcbiosecurity.org/website/resources/publications/2003/2003-09-15-biodefenserandd.html//MGD)
THE ULTIMATE OBJECTIVE OF THE U.S. CIVILIAN BIODEFENSE STRATEGY should be to eliminate the possibility of
massively lethal bioterrorist attacks. A central pillar of this strategy must be an ambitious and aggressive scientific
research , development, and production(R&D&P) program that delivers the diagnostic technologies,
medicines, and vaccines needed to counterthe range ofbioweaponsagents that might be used against the nation. Asuccessful
biodefense strategy must take account of the rapidly expanding spectrum of bioweapons agents and means of delivery made possible by 21st century
advances in bioscientific knowledge and biotechnology. Meeting this challenge will require the engagement of
America’s extraordinary scientific talent and investments of financial and political capital on a scale far beyond that now committed or contemplated. The
purpose of this article is to provide a brief analysis of the current biomedical R&D&P environment and to offer recommendations for the establishment of a national biodefense strategy that
In the longer term, a robust biodefense R&D&P
effort, if coupled to substantial improvements in medical and public health systems, could conceivably
render biological weapons ineffective as agents of mass lethality.
could significantly diminish the suffering and loss that would accompany bioterrorist attacks.
Extinction
Matheny 7- research associate with the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University, PhD in economics from Hopkins(Jason, “Reducing the Risk of
Human Extinction,” Risk Analysis, Vol. 27, No. 5, 2007 www.physics.harvard.edu/~wilson/pmpmta/Mahoney_extinction.pdf//MGD)
Of current extinction risks, the most severe may be bioterrorism.The knowledge needed to engineer a
virus is modest compared to that needed to build a nuclear weapon; the necessary equipment and
materials are increasingly accessible and because biological agents are self-replicating, a weapon can
have an exponential effect on a population (Warrick, 2006; Williams, 2006). 5 Current U.S. biodefense efforts are funded at $5 billion per
year to develop and stockpile new drugs and vaccines, monitor biological agents and emerging diseases, and strengthen the capacities of local health systems to
respond to pandemics (Lam, Franco, & Shuler, 2006
Jatropha fails as a biofuel – only reinforces the food vs fuel trade-off
Charles 12 (Dan Charles is NPR's food and agriculture correspondent. Primarily responsible for
covering farming and the food industry, Charles focuses on the stories of culture, business, and the
science behind what arrives on your dinner plate. In 2009-2010, he taught journalism in Ukraine through
the Fulbright program. He has been guest researcher at the Institute for Peace Research and Security
Policy at the University of Hamburg, Germany, and a Knight Science Journalism fellow at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. From 1990 to 1993, Charles was a U.S. correspondent for New
Scientist, a major British science magazine. The author of two books, Charles wrote Master Mind: The
Rise and Fall of Fritz Haber, The Nobel Laureate Who Launched the Age of Chemical Warfare (Ecco,
2005) and Lords of the Harvest: Biotech, Big Money, and the Future of Food (Perseus, 2001) about the
making of genetically engineered crops. “How A Biofuel Dream Called JatrophaCame Crashing Down”
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2012/08/22/159391553/how-a-biofuel-dream-called-jatropha-camecrashing-down)
The Jatropha Boom, Then Bust Investors loved the idea. Around 2007 and 2008, they threw money at Jatropha
projects, including huge plantations covering tens of thousands of acres, all over the tropics. Mozambique,
in southern Africa, was among the most active new centers of Jatropha cultivation. The country's president himself went from village to village,
telling people to plant Jatropha trees. Home-grown fuel, he said, could turn life around for small villages. Belchion Lucas, a former reporter for
Radio Mozambique, says that the president "used to say that they can even produce oil at home, without a factory." Within
just a few
years, though, the dream of the perfect biofuel collapsed. This was partly due to the financial crisis. When it hit, late in
2008, the easy money dried up. Foreign investors pulled out of some projects, leaving them in limbo. But there was a bigger problem. The
miracle plant turned out not to be so miraculous, after all. Ywe Jan Franken, from FACT Foundation, says much of
the enthusiasm about Jatropha was based on a misunderstanding. It's true, he says, that the tree can
survive droughts, and poor soil. But under those conditions, it won't produce many seeds. If you
actually want a good harvest of oil, he says, the plant "needs nutrients and water, just like any other
crop." (Here is FACT Foundation's full technical assessment of Jatropha.) This means that Jatropha fields will compete for
the same fertile land as food crops. Welcome back, food vs. fuel.Many of the companies that jumped
into the Jatropha business have now climbed back out again; others are cutting back their operations.
Franken says the collapse of the Jatropha boom is disappointing for everyone, but it's most disappointing for the small farmers who bought into
the dream. Some of the projects, he says, "promised the farmers high returns, as has been done so many times with new ideas, or crops. And in
this case, they thought, 'Wow, we can make some money here, because there is such high demand for biofuels.' And they actually lost money,
because they could have done something else."
Yields are too small and it uses more water than any other biofuel – makes the food
fuel trade-off worse
Strickland 09 (Eliza Strickland is an associate editor for the international technology magazine IEEE
Spectrum. She frequently writes about green energy, the smart grid, and nuclear power. “Jatropha: Not
a Miracle Biofuel Crop After All?” http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/80beats/2009/06/09/jatrophanot-a-miracle-biofuel-crop-after-all/#.UnT1A_nUArw)
The oil-rich and weedy plant jatropha has been hailed as the most promising source of biofuel on the planet, and one airline has already begun
testing a jatropha-derived fuel in its jumbo jets. But a new analysis suggests that the
plant may not be a miracle crop destined
to solve all our energy problems: Current jatropha plantations are not realising the oil yields that
drove the “Jatropha euphoria” [EcoWorldly]. It was previously thought that the hardy jatropha plant
would require less water than other biofuel crops like sugarcane and corn and could grow in marginal
soil, so growers wouldn’t have to take fertile land out of agricultural use. But the new study rebuts that assumption. “The
claim that jatropha doesn’t compete for water and land with food crops is complete nonsense,” says
study coauthor Arjen Hoekstra. The researcher says it’s true that the plant can grow with little water and can survive through periods of
drought, but to flourish, it
needs good growing conditions just like any other plant. “If there isn’t sufficient
water, you get a low amount of oil production,” Hoekstra says [Technology Review]. The study, published in the Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences, found that making a single liter of jatropha biodiesel requires a whopping
20,000 liters of water to grow…. That’s more than canola, corn, soybeans or sugarcane — more, in
fact, than any commonly used biofuel crop. The two closest, canola and soybeans, require about
14,000 liters each [BNET].
Won’t be adopted in the US - politics
Specht ’13- Legal Advisor, Pearlmaker Holsteins, Inc. B.A., Louisiana State University, 2009; J.D., Washington University in St. Louis 2012
(Jonathan, “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States”, 36 UC Davis L. Rev. 192, April
24 2013, http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf)
The RFS called for production of 6.5 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol in 2010 (lowered from an earlier
target of 100 million gallons). 129 That target was not met, and no cellulosic ethanol was blended into
gasoline in the second half of that year. 130 Cellulosic ethanol production has slowly begun to develop in the United States, with the
first commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol plant under construction as of the end of 2012 and scheduled to begin operations in 2013. 131
However, the further growth of cellulosic ethanol production may be slowed by political developments in the
United States. 132 The first commercial refinery of this type was made possible by a $105 million federal loan
guarantee from the Department of Energy. 133 Despite President Obama’s re-election, his administration
may be reluctant to make further such guarantees in the wake of the Solyndra scandal 134 and greater scrutiny
of Department of Energy actions by Republicans in the House of Representatives. 135
Trade Credibility
Alt Cause – WTO disputes
New 13
New, 3/26/2013 (William – Intellectual Property Watch, United States Chided As TRIPS Scofflaw at WTO,
Intellectual Property Watch, p. http://www.ip-watch.org/2013/03/26/united-states-chided-as-tripsscofflaw-at-wto/)
“The conduct of the U nited S tates unscrupulously discredits the WTO dispute settlement system and
also constitutes an affront to the intellectual property rights,” an ambassador from Cuba said today at the
WTO. At a WTO D ispute S ettlement B ody meeting today, a number of WTO members fired shots at the US
delegation for its continued failure to change its laws to comply with WTO rulings that found it out of
compliance on i ntellectual p roperty- r elated issues. This includes the case involving a rum trademark dating
back over a decade, and a more recent case involving a US online gambling ban that led a WTO panel to authorise the Caribbean nation of
Antigua and Barbuda to extract payment by not protecting US IP rights until it complies. The irony of the US as IP scofflaw was not lost on
competitors like Antigua and Barbuda or Cuba, which said the
US slackness discredits its IP rights enforcement
campaign as well as the very WTO dispute settlement process itself. “It is very ironic to observe the U nited S tates
projecting laws on intellectual property, despite keeping violations as egregious as Section 211,”
under which the Bacardi Company continues to market rum labelled Havana Club, a mark which is otherwise
owned by Cuba and partners. “This is one of the most famous cases of trademark counterfeiting and conducting
misleading advertising by a company backed by the US legislation.” The
lack of any substantive change by the U nited S tates
in today’s report to the DSB “is irrefutable proof that this country has [done] nothing during more than 11 years to
comply with the DSB recommendations and rulings, which ruled the incompatibility of ‘Section 211 of
the Omnibus Appropriations Act of 1998′ with the TRIPS Agreement and the Paris Convention,” the Cuban
ambassador to the WTO said in a translated statement. TRIPS is the WTO Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights.
Cuba has interest in the rum case because it is a part owner of the rum trademark everywhere in the world except the United States. “The
legislative projects to which the US delegation makes reference in their reports each month remain stagnant because it does not constitute a
priority or real interest for the administration or the Congress of that country,” Cuba said. “However, by their displaying of incoherent foreign
policy, we frequently observe how that Member promotes initiatives in terms of ‘enforcement of intellectual property rights.’” For instance,
Cuba said the recently announced US-European Union trade agreement contains the goal of “maintaining and promoting a high level of
protection” of IPRs, and said this bilateral trade agreement should be “critically question[ed].” Even the 27-member European Union weighed in
on the Section 211 case, thanking the US for its report and adding the hope that “US authorities will very soon take steps towards implementing
the DSB ruling and resolve this matter.” The EU also urged that the US comply with another IP case – Section 110(5) of the US Copyright Act –
which involved the US commercial practice of playing music recordings, such as Irish music, aloud in bars without paying royalties. “We refer to
our previous statements that we would like to resolve this case as soon as possible,” the EU said. Venezuela joined Cuba in condemning the
United States for its failure to comply with the rum case, and raised deep concerns about a continued lack of action. “This
situation is
unacceptable, disappointing, and worrying, not only because it affects a developing country member of this organisation,
but also for the grave repercussions against the credibility of DSB and the multilateral system of
trade ,” Venezuela said in its statement (unofficial translation).
Trade does not solve war—there’s no correlation between trade and peace
Martin, Mayer and Thoenig, 08
(Phillipe, University of Paris 1 Pantheon—Sorbonne, Paris School of Economics, and Centre for
Economic Policy Research; Thierry MAYER, University of Paris 1 Pantheon—Sorbonne, Paris School
of Economics, CEPII, and Centre for Economic Policy Research, Mathias THOENIG, University of
Geneva and Paris School of Economics, The Review of Economic Studies 75)
Does globalization pacify international relations? The “liberal” view in political science argues
that increasing trade flows and the spread of free markets and democracy should limit the incentive
to use military force in interstate relations. This vision, which can partly be traced back to Kant’s
Essay on Perpetual Peace (1795), has been very influential: The main objective of the European
trade integration process was to prevent the killing and destruction of the two World Wars from
ever happening again.1 Figure 1 suggests2 however, that during the 1870–2001 period, the
correlation between trade openness and military conflicts is nota clear cut one. The first era
of globalization, at the end of the 19th century, was a period of rising trade openness and
multiple military conflicts, culminating with World War I. Then, the interwar period was
characterized by a simultaneous collapse of world trade and conflicts. After World War II,
world trade increased rapidly, while the number of conflicts decreased (although the risk of a
global conflict was obviously high). There is no clear evidence that the 1990s, during which
trade flows increased dramatically, was a period of lowerprevalence of military conflicts, even
taking into account the increase in the number of sovereign states.
Law of economic exchange prove no conflict from protectionism
Ikenson 12 – [March 5th, Daniel, Daniel Ikenson is director of the Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade
Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, http://www.cato.org/publications/free-trade-bulletin/trade-policypriority-one-averting-uschina-trade-war]
An emerging narrative in 2012 is that a proliferation of protectionist, treaty-violating, or otherwise illiberal Chinese
policies is to blame for worsening U.S.-China relations. China trade experts from across the ideological and political spectra have lent
credibility to that story. Business groups that once counseled against U.S. government actions that might be perceived by the Chinese as provocative have changed
their tunes. The term "trade war" is no longer taboo. The media have portrayed the United States as a victim of underhanded Chinese
practices, including currency manipulation, dumping, subsidization, intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer, discriminatory "indigenous innovation"
policies, export restrictions, industrial espionage, and other ad hoc impediments to U.S. investment and exports. Indeed, it
is beyond doubt that
certain Chinese policies have been provocative, discriminatory, protectionist, and, in some cases,
violative of the agreed rules of international trade. But there is more to the story than that. U.S. policies, politics, and attitudes have
contributed to rising tensions, as have rabble-rousing politicians and a confrontation-thirsty media. If the public's passions are going to be
inflamed with talk of a trade war, prudence demands that the war's nature be properly characterized
and its causes identified and accurately depicted. Those agitating for tough policy actions should put down their battle bugles and
consider that trade wars are never won . Instead, such wars claim victims indiscriminately and leave significant damage in their wake. Even if one
concludes that China's list of offenses is collectively more egregious than that of the United States, the most sensible course of action — for the American public (if
not campaigning politicians) — is one that avoids mutually destructive actions and finds measures to reduce frictions with China. Nature of the U.S.-China Trade War
It should not be surprising that the increasing number of commercial exchanges between entities in the
world's largest and second largest economies produce frictions on occasion. But the U.S.-China economic
relationship has not descended into an existential call to arms. Rather, both governments have taken
protectionist actions that are legally defensible or plausibly justifiable within the rules of global trade.
That is not to say that those measures have been advisable or that they would withstand closer legal
scrutiny, but to make the distinction that, unlike the free-for-all that erupted in the 1930s, these trade
"skirmishes" have been prosecuted in a manner that speaks to a mutual recognition of the primacy of —
if not respect for — the rules-based system of trade. And that suggests that the kerfuffle is containable
and the recent trend reversible .1
No impact – warming will take centuries and adaptation solves
Mendelsohn 9 – Robert O. Mendelsohn 9, the Edwin Weyerhaeuser Davis Professor, Yale School of
Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, June 2009, “Climate Change and Economic
Growth,” online: http://www.growthcommission.org/storage/cgdev/documents/gcwp060web.pdf
These statements are largely alarmist and misleading . Although climate change is a serious problem that deserves
attention, society’s immediate behavior has an
extremely low probability
of leading to
catastrophic
consequences . The science and economics of climate change is quite clear that emissions over the next few
decades will lead to only mild consequences . The severe impacts
century (or two
in the case of Stern 2006)
predicted by alarmists
require a
of no mitigation . Many of the predicted impacts assume there will be no or
little adaptation. The net economic impacts from climate change over the next 50 years will be small regardless. Most of the more
severe impacts will take more than a century or even a millennium to unfold and many of
these “potential” impacts will
never occur because people will adapt . It is not at allapparent that immediate and dramatic
policies need to be developed to thwart long‐range climate risks. What is needed are long‐run balanced
responses.
No risk of catastrophic acidification.
Monckton, 2010
Christopher Monckton, 2010. Chief Policy Advisor—Science and Public Policy Institute, former
Special Advisor to UK Prime Minister Thatcher. “ANSWERS TO A FISHERMAN’S TESTIMONY
ABOUT OCEAN ACIDIFICATION”, 4-28,
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/answers_to_fishermans_testi
mony.pdf.
Ocean acidification is real. It has been documented by researchers all over the world and there is
no doubt that the pH of the ocean is dropping, becoming more acidic. There is no evidence
whatsoever that the oceans have become “more acidic”. The oceans are in fact pronouncedly
alkaline, and will remain so however much CO2 we add to the atmosphere. The pH or acidbase index is neutral at a value of 7; acid below 7; alkaline (also known as “base”) above The
oceans are currently at a pH of 7.9-8.No serious scientist suggests that the oceans will
become acid: at worst, they will come a little closer to neutrality. To put this in context,
ordinary rainwater is acid, with a pH of 5.There is not the slightest danger that the oceans will
become acid at all, yet alone as acid as harmless rainwater. The reason is that the oceans run
over rocks, which react chemically with seawater to keep it firmly alkaline. Nor is it at all
clear that “the pH of the ocean is dropping”. At most, the pH may have fallen by 0.1 acid-base
units over the past century, but we do not know for sure because no comprehensive,
worldwide measurements have ever been taken by a single research project, and there were
certainly far too few measurements a century ago to provide a reliable baseline from which any
such conclusion can be drawn. What is certain is that even a shift of as little as 0.1 acid-base units
cannot have been caused by the change in CO2 concentration, because in the past 250 years we
have added only 0.19% to the partial pressure of CO2 already pre-existing in the oceans. This is too
little to make any measurable difference to the acid-base balance of the oceans.
Icebergs are a negative feedback – none of their evidence takes this into account
Macfarlane, 09
(Jo, The Daily Mail Online. “Amazing discovery of green algae which could save the world from
global warming” http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1104772/Amazing-discoverygreen-algae-save-world-global-warming.html?ITO=1490#)
Melting icebergs, so long the iconic image of global warming, are triggering a natural process
that could delay or even end climate change, British scientists have found. A team working on
board the Royal Navy’s HMS Endurance off the coast of Antarctica have discovered tiny particles
of iron are released into the sea as the ice melts. The iron feeds algae, which blooms and
sucks up damaging carbon dioxide (CO2), then sinks, locking away the harmful greenhouse
gas for hundreds of years. The team think the process could hold the key to staving off
globally rising temperatures. Lead researcher Professor Rob Raiswell, from Leeds University, said:‘The Earth itself
seems to want to save us.’ As a result of the findings, a ground-breaking experiment will be held this month off the British
island of South Georgia, 800 miles south east of the Falklands. It will see if the phenomenon could be harnessed to contain rising carbon
emissions. Researchers will use several tons of iron sulphate to create an artificial bloom of algae. The patch will be so large it will be
visible from space. Scientists already knew that releasing iron into the sea stimulates the growth of algae. But environmentalists had
warned that to do so artificially might damage the planet’s fragile ecosystem. Last year, the UN banned iron fertilisation in the Great
Southern Ocean. However, the new findings show the mechanism has actually been operating naturally for millions of years within the
isolated southern waters. And it has led to the researchers being granted permission by the UN to move ahead with the experiment. The
scientist who will lead the next stage of the study, Professor Victor Smetacek, said: ‘The gas is sure to be out of the Earth’s atmosphere for
several hundred years.’ The aim is to discover whether artificially fertilising the area will create more algae in the Great Southern Ocean.
That ocean is an untapped resource for soaking up CO2 because it doesn’t have much iron, unlike other seas. It covers 20million square
miles, and scientists say that if this could all be treated with iron,the resulting
algae would remove three-and-ahalf gigatons of carbon dioxide. This is equivalent to one eighth of all emissions annually
created by burning fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal. It would also be equal to removing all
carbon dioxide emitted from every power plant, chimney and car exhaust in the rapidly
expanding industries of India and Japan. However, the experts warn it is too early to say whether it will work. The
team from ice patrol ship HMS Endurance used sledgehammers to chip deep into the interior of a 33ft-long mass of polar ice from half-adozen house-sized icebergs that had blown ashore in Antarctica. Once back in the UK, they used a special microscope to analyse the
samples, which revealed what they had been looking for – tiny iron particles, only a few millionths of a millimetre wide, embedded deep
within the ice. Until now, it was thought that the only source of iron in the Southern Ocean was wind blowing in metal compounds from
the deserts of nearby continents like Australia. But the research has disproved this. Prof Raiswell said: ‘These particles measure only a
fraction of a millimetre, but they have great importance for the global climate.’ Rising global temperatures, particularly over the past 50
years, have increased the rate at which polar ice melts, causing sea levels to rise. Ten of the warmest years on record have been since
1991, with experts predicting that 2009 could be the hottest year yet. The climate-change effect is set to substantially increase over the
coming decades, as developing industrial nations pump out more CO2. Temperatures along the Antarctic Peninsula alone have increased
by 2.5C over the past 50 years. Butfor every percentage
point increase in the amount of ice that breaks
off, Prof Raiswell calculates that a further 26million tons of CO2 is removed from the
atmosphere.
Newest studies prove that CO2 is not anthropogenic – emissions from fossil fuels only
stay in the atmosphere for five years and natural forcings are more important
Marohasy, 09
(Jennifer, senior fellow at the Australian think tank the Institute of Public Affairs, PhD in biology
from the University of Queensland. Cites research from Robert H. Essenhigh, Department of
Mechanical Engineering at Ohio State University, “Carbon Dioxide in Atmosphere 5-15 Years Only”
4-17-09. http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2009/04/carbon-dioxide-in-atmosphere-5-15-yearsonly/)
If carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels only stayed in the atmosphere a few years, say
five years, then there may not be quite the urgency currently associated with anthropogenic
global warming. Indeed it might be argued that the problem of elevated levels of atmospheric
carbon dioxide could be easily reversed as soon as alternative fuel sources where found
and/or just before a tipping point was reached. The general consensus, however, is not five
years, but rather more in the range of 50 to 200 years.
But in a new technical paper to be
published in the journal ‘Energy and Fuels’, Robert Essenhigh from Ohio State University,
throws doubt on this consensus. Using the combustion/chemical-engineering Perfectly Stirred
Reactor (PSR) mixing structure, or 0-D Box, as the basis of a model for residence time in the
atmosphere, he explains that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are likely to have a
residence time of between 5 and 15 years. He further concludes that the current trend of
rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is not from anthropogenic sources, but
due to natural factors. Here’s the abstract: The driver for this study is the wide-ranging
published values of the CO2 atmospheric residence time (RT), , with the values differing by
more than an order of magnitude, where the significance of the difference relates to decisions on
whether: (1) to attempt control of combustion-sourced (anthropogenic) CO2 emissions, if >100
years; or (2) not to attempt control, if ~10 years. This given difference is particularly evident in the
IPCC First (1990) Climate Change Report where, in the opening Policymakers Summary of the
Report, the RT is stated to be in the range 50 to 200 years; and, (largely) based on that, it was also
concluded in the Report and from subsequent related studies that the current rising level of CO2
was due to combustion of fossil fuels, thus carrying the, now widely-accepted, rider that CO2
emissions from combustion should therefore be curbed.
However, the actual data in the text of the IPCC Report separately states a value of 4 years.
The differential of these two times is then clearly identified in the relevant supporting-documents
of the report as being, separately: (1) a long-term (~100 years) adjustment or response time to
accommodate imbalance increases in CO2 emissions from all sources; and, (2) the actual RT in the
atmosphere, of ~4 years. As check on that differentiation, and its alternative outcome, the definition
and determination of RT thus defined the need for and focus of this study. In this study, using the
combustion/chemical-engineering Perfectly Stirred Reactor (PSR) mixing structure, or 0-D Box, for
the model-basis, as alternative to the more-commonly used Global Circulation Models (GCM’s), to
define and determine the RT in the atmosphere, then, using data from the IPCC and other sources
for model validation and numerical determination, the data: (1) support the validity of the PSR
model-application in this context; and (2) from the analysis, provide (quasi-equilibrium)
residence times for CO2 of: ~5 years carrying C12; and of ~16 years carrying C14, with both
values essentially in agreement with the IPCC short-term (4-year) value, separately, in agreement
with most other data sources and notably a (1998) listing by Segalstad of 36 other published
values, also in the range 5 to 15 years. Additionally, the analytical results then also support
the IPCC analysis and data on the longer “adjustment time” (~100 years) governing the longterm rising “quasi-equilibrium” concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. For principal
verification of the adopted PSR model, the data source used was outcome of the injection of excess
14CO2 into the atmosphere during the A-bomb tests in the 1950’s/60’s which generated an initial
increase of approximately 1000% above the normal value, and which then declined substantially
exponentially with time, with = 16 years, in accordance with the (unsteady-state) prediction from,
and jointly providing validation for, the PSR analysis. With the short (5-15 year) RT results
shown to be in quasi-equilibrium, this then supports the (independently-based) conclusion
that the long-term (~100-year) rising atmospheric CO2 concentration is not from
anthropogenic sources but, in accordance with conclusions from other studies, is most
probably the outcome of the rising atmospheric temperature which is due to other natural
factors. This further supports the conclusion that global warming is not anthropogenically
driven as outcome of combustion. The economic and political significance of that conclusion
will be self-evident.