FNC 330 Created for FNC 330: Richard Lee Case Study: Economic Value Added for IT TOC TOC............................................................................................................................................. 1 Case Study Overview and Learning Objectives ......................................................................... 1 Case Background and Summary ................................................................................................. 1 Case Questions ............................................................................................................................ 6 Teaching Notes ........................................................................................................................... 6 Answers to Case Questions ......................................................................................................... 7 Index of Terms ............................................................................................................................ 9 References ................................................................................................................................... 9 Case Study Overview and Learning Objectives Economic Value Added (EVA) analysis is a recently introduced metric for measuring the return on capital outlays. IT-intensive companies are now developing new approaches that use EVA for valuing technical investments. This case study depicts a real-life situation showing how EVA can be used along with more traditional valuation techniques, such as return on invested capital (ROIC), net present value (NPV) and free cash flows during investment analysis. The case begins by exploring a product development scenario for a fictional company call Edge Networks. Sam Hayes, the vise president for the new product, discovers the EVA metric and questions its similarity to existing NPV valuations techniques used by his division. To address his questions and concerns, Sam shows how to derive EVA and provides a comparison of EVA with NPV and ROIC calculations. The objective of the case is to show the derivation of EVA and how it relates to NPV and ROIC calculations. It also invokes the student to elaborate on the pros and cons for using the metric along with the financial framework (statement adjustments) needed for deriving the calculations. Case Background and Summary Sam Hayes’s wait was over and he was now being summoned to report on his business unit’s progress for the new Media Gateway 1000. Sam was attending the monthly operations review in Toronto for business unit vice presidents (VPs). Each month the VPs gathered at company headquarters in Toronto to review the results and progress for new or existing projects. This month Sam was presenting results on a new product his team had developed called the Media Gateway 1000 (MG-1000), a combination wide-area network switch and router. He noticed that during the review the CFO Dan Riddle was questioning each of the VPs on their return on capital 3/9/2016 1 FNC 330 Created for FNC 330: Richard Lee (ROIC). Dan indicated that based on market conditions, analyst were beginning to question the company’s ROIC projections. Sam usually reported overall discounted cash flow projections for all his projects in net present value (NPV) format. He wondered if there was another way to report the same type of information but in a way that didn’t reveal specific product profitability information. Sam worked for Edge Networks, a company that designed, marketed and manufactured network routers and switches. The company’s primary customers consisted of tier-1 public carriers and enterprise-business customers. Market share segmentation was split roughly 70% to public carriers and 25% to enterprise customers. The remaining 5% represented independent resellers. The MG-1000 was targeted mainly for the public carrier segment and was slated for mass deployment during the first quarter of 2004. Given the increasing scrutiny on bookings and order forecast, Sam knew he needed to address the ROIC question posed by Dan. Company and Product Background Edge Networks was a Canadian company that had been in existence for approximated 20 years. During the 1990’s the company experienced rapid growth, spawned primarily by the emergence of the Internet and the demand by companies for networking equipment. As primary carriers (called tier-1 market carriers) positioned for the huge growth in customer traffic, orders for new equipment, much of it for Edge Network products, grew rapidly. The company posted record earnings each year from 1996 to 1999, growing earnings from approximately $250 million to near $1 billion in 1999. To meet the increasing demand and competition from existing vendors, the company continually invested capital for the development of new and or improved products. The MG-1000 was the latest of these products. The MG-1000 was a combination gateway switch and core router. Its primary purpose was to aggregate and multiplex network traffic from several sources onto a common backbone protocol such as multi-protocol label switching (MPLS) or asynchronous Transfer Mode protocol (ATM). For example, a public carrier such as US Sprint or Verizon could use the MG-1000 to combine different access sources onto a combined network backbone. A specific scenario might involve combining intra-company voice telephone calls with intra company data traffic. Before the MG1000, each access source used its own separate backbone, requiring the carrier to support multiple backbone networks, one for voice and one for data. The MG-1000 would allow convergence onto a single network backbone, thus saving the carrier millions of dollars in ongoing capital cost and operational expenses. The Bursting Bubble Although the 90’s had been a time of tremendous growth for the company, the last several years were exactly the opposite. Demand for the company’s switches and routers had dropped significantly with the busting of the Internet Bubble. This decrease in demand directly impacted the company’s stock price, which was selling at $12.15 per share, off from its 2000 high of $81.00 per share. Since much of the company’s revenue originated from the public carriers, 3/9/2016 2 FNC 330 Created for FNC 330: Richard Lee primarily in North America, any decline in this segment was usually noticed on the company’s revenue and earnings projections. Analyst following the communications sector and the large public carriers (AT&T, Sprint, Verizon, SBC, Bell South, Quest, Alltel, Cingular, etc.) were beginning to wonder whether growth and demand (CAPEX) would reappear in the market. Since much of Edge Network’s revenue was tied to capital purchases by the major carriers, slow growth by the carriers meant no spending for new products, and thus slower growth for Edge Networks. Leading much of the pessimistic outlook were several studies showing that public carriers were failing to meet ROIC objectives (Katz & Junqueira, 2003). These studies showed that only 2 out the top 15 public carriers were actually covering their weighted average cost capital cost (WACC), with the average ROIC to WACC spread being -3.5%1. With poor return on investment outlooks for the carriers, analysts were now asking the same questions of the carrier’s vendors, e.g., Edge Networks. These questions were being asked of Dan Riddle, which in turn was now requesting return information from his product VPs. Although the company could easily calculate returns on historical data, it really needed some visibility into future return on capital and investment numbers, one that was easily understandable to analyst. Product NPV and EVA Compared On the return trip to Dallas Texas, division home of the MG-1000, Sam Hayes read about a new financial metric that was gaining popularity with many analysts. The metric was called Economic Value Added (EVA) and it specifically took into consideration a company’s cost of capital in measuring return on investment, or what some called economic profit. Although he had been using NPV calculations to do the same thing for years, he wondered if the new metric could be used in a more general format, one that was easily understood by analyst and operationally by upper management, such as the CFO Dan Riddle. EVA looked similar to ROIC; however, the metric directly incorporated a company’s coast of capital (WACC) into the equation. The basic equation was as follows: EVA = NOPAT – (Invested Capital x WACC) or EVA = (ROIC – WCCC) x Invested Capital Where NOPAT equaled the company’s net operating profit after tax, WACC the company’s cost of capital and invested capital was the net change in capital for the period. To benchmark his EVA calculations, Sam first needed to calculate the estimated free cash flow produced by the MG-1000. These numbers were already available from earlier NPV calculations and were as follows2: 1 2 The ROIC to WACC spread is (ROIC- WACC). Note that numbers are in millions of dollars. 3/9/2016 3 FNC 330 Created for FNC 330: Year MG-1000 NOPAT (or EBIAT) Less change in invested capital Free cash flow PV factor PV of cash flow Cumulative PV NPV Richard Lee 2003 - 2004 40 2005 80 2006 120 2007 160 2008 120 (1,000) (1,000) 1.00 (1,000) (1,000) 135 200 240 0.91 218 (782) 200 280 0.83 231 (550) 200 320 0.75 240 (310) 200 360 0.68 246 (64) 200 320 0.62 199 135 In deriving NOPAT, Sam used pro-forma projections for the MG-1000 over the next 5 years and made adjustments to net income to derive true operating earnings. In many companies net income will be the same as NOPAT, but for Edge Networks adjustments were required for items such as investment income (loss), non-recurring cost, interest expenses and or income plus goodwill amortization. All of these items reflected non-operating or non-cash items. Since Sam started with NOPAT or EBIAT, forecasted year-over-year operating expenses were already embedded into the derivation. A forecasted growth rate for EBIAT was set at 100% for 2005, 50% for 2006, 33% for 2007 and -33% in 2008 as the product reached maturity. To derive forecasted capital (CAPEX) investments, Sam took the forecasted capital investments for Edge Networks for the next 5 years and came up with the following numbers: Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 Invested capital 1,000 800 600 400 200 - To derive forecasted capital (CAPEX) investments for the MG-1000, Sam wanted to concentrate only on those numbers specific to MG-1000 investments. To derive this number(s) Sam needed to determine any new or net invested long tern capital (property, plant and equipment) and any net or new changes in networking capital, as it related to the MG-1000. His forecast came up with the following numbers. Year Total Invested capital Change in invested Capital due to MG-1000 0 1,000 1 800 2 600 3 400 4 200 5 - (1,000) 200 200 200 200 200 Putting the forecasted estimates together, Sam produced the following combined financial information. This data shows how Sam originally developed and forecasted estimates for the MG-1000 NPV. Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Adjusted NWC - - - - - - Net PP&E Invested capital 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 - 3/9/2016 4 FNC 330 Created for FNC 330: MG-1000 Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit Gross Margin - Operating Expenses EBIT - Taxes @ 35% - EBIAT (MG-1000) Less change in invested capital Free cash flow PV factor PV of cash flow Cumulative PV NPV Richard Lee - 232 128 105 45.00% 43 62 22 465 256 209 45.00% 86 123 43 697 384 314 45.00% 129 185 65 930 511 418 45.00% 172 246 86 697 384 314 45.00% 129 185 65 - 40 80 120 160 120 (1,000) (1,000) 1.00 (1,000) (1,000) 135 200 240 0.91 218 (782) 200 280 0.83 231 (550) 200 320 0.75 240 (310) 200 360 0.68 246 (64) 200 320 0.62 199 135 - Using the formula for EVA, (ROIC – WCCC) x Invested Capital, Sam calculated the EVA from ROIC. The present value factor, or WACC, for Edge Networks was normally about 10%. ROIC EVA PV factor PV of EVA Cumulative PV Total PV of EVA 1.00 135 4% (60) 0.91 (55) (55) 10% 0.83 (55) 20% 60 0.75 45 (9) 40% 120 0.68 82 72 60% 100 0.62 62 135 It appeared that Sam had developed a way to reflect his original ROIC numbers in way that directly reflected the division/company’s WACC. He already used NPV and ROIC numbers in his projections and by adding EVA, he was able to quote a simple economic return on capital metric. To summarize his findings he developed a simple set of steps that could be used by other divisional VPs. The steps were as follows: 1. Calculate NOPAT (EBIAT) for the particular product. This was already being performed by all divisional VPs and was nothing new. 2. Calculate the net invested capital for the product. This required measuring the replacement for existing capital directly related to the product and any net or new capital invested in the product. With the EVA approach, replacement capital is not considered since the assumption that depreciation will equal the replacement capital, hence invested capital considers only new net capital applied to the project. Again this step was already being done by most VPs for ROIC calculations. 3. Use the EVA formula to solve for EVA. The WACC was easily obtained from the division or company finance department. EVA = (ROIC – WCCC) x Invested Capital 3/9/2016 5 FNC 330 Created for FNC 330: Richard Lee 4. Get the present value or discount for each year’s EVA and find the cumulative EVA cash flow for the project. The total EVA cash flow should equal the total NPV cash flows that were traditionally being used. EVACashFlow EVA1 EVA2 EVAn ..... 1 2 (1 WACC) (1 WACC) (1 WACC) n Although Sam knew much of this information by using traditional net present value techniques, he believed that expressing the data in EVA form would provide a simpler measure for comparing return on capital, especially for analyst. It would also allow Sam to use one metric, as opposed to several, which achieved his earlier goal of not exposing too much of his project’s proprietary information. Case Questions 1. What are the benefits of using EVA and what companywide benefits could it achieve? 2. Explain Economic Value Add (EVA) and how it relates to ROIC and NPV calculations. 3. Do you think Sam has developed a significant metric that can be used for evaluating return on invested capital? Please explain your answer. 4. In determining a company’s free cash flow and invested capital, several considerations and financial adjustments mush be considered to derive these numbers. Please explain these adjustments. 5. Are there possible caveats or problems with using EVA? Teaching Notes The concept of using economic profits as a measuring stick for return on capital has been pondered and debated for many years now. Although most managers traditionally use net present value estimates of free cash flow, i.e., pro forma discounted cash flows, many companies such as GE, DuPont and others have adopted EVA as an internal metric for comparing projects and overall company performance. These companies argue that EVA provides a simple way of measuring and comparing projects on an apples-to-apples basis, i.e., true economic cash flows. They also espouse its simple and understandable derivation by middle management. By using one simple metric for management performance, all managers are now aware that their projects require a capital cost that must be recovered before a true return is recognized. There is a significant amount of information regarding EVA and it is recommended that at least some of this information be assigned as reading accompanying the case. The additional reading provides the necessary background for EVA derivations and its similarities to NPV. Please see the references section below for a complete list. Readings that should prove easy and to the point are as follows: 3/9/2016 6 FNC 330 Created for FNC 330: Richard Lee Bennett G. Stewart, The Quest for Value, Harper Business, 1990 The original creator of EVA is Stern & Stewart Co. They provide a good book on EVA that can serve as a reference. Students will probably not read the entire book; however, it covers the foundations for EVA and provides a suitable reference while reading the case. For understanding the mathematics and derivation behind EVA, the following sites are recommended. The first is a link to Dr. Aswath Damodaran of the NYU Stern School Business. His web site on Finance is extensively sourced with EVA material. The second reference is a paper written by Dr Ronald Shrieves and Dr John Wachowicz of the University of Tennessee and provides a good comparison of NPV and EVA. These sites are located at: NYU Site: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/lectures/eva.html University of Tennessee paper: Free Cash Flow (FCF), Economic Value Added (EVATM), and Net Present Value: A Reconciliation of Variations of Discounted-Cash-Flow (DCF) Valuation A very good paper written on EVA and ROIC entitled “The Mechanics of the Economic Model” can be found at McGill University and was actually written by an undergraduate student, Andrew Chan. It provides a comparison EVA, WACC, NPV and ROIC and includes a discussion and derivation of the measures. http://www.intranet.management.mcgill.ca/mic/education/EconomicModelV16.pdf Answers to Case Questions 1. What are the benefits of using EVA and what companywide benefits could it achieve? The answers to this question will vary for each student, but something similar to the following should be represented: One of the major reasons for using EVA is its ability to consider the cost of capital into return calculations. Often analysts and outside investors only consider earnings per share or price to earnings ratios for comparison purposes. These measures fail to consider the cost of capital. EVA directly uses the WACC when measuring return on capital. Almost all companies use some form of discounted cash flow process in evaluating capital projects, expressing this information at the company or divisional level can be confusing. Many divisions, subsidiaries, international units may have very different capital cost. Using EVA can help reduce the confusion by using one metric that all divisions are accountable for. The student should also recognize that discounted cash flows (NPV) of a project should equal the present value of EVA flows for the same project. This implies the following general assumption: 3/9/2016 7 FNC 330 Created for FNC 330: Richard Lee NPV of Firm’s Free Cash flow (FFCF) = Present Value of the firms EVA cash flow. Students may have other explanations, but they should at minimum include some or all of the above concepts. 2. Explain Economic Value Add (EVA) and how it relates to ROIC and NPV calculations. EVA is very similar to ROIC and NPV and can be easily expressed mathematically. EVA = NOPAT – (Invested Capital x WACC) and ROIC = NOPAT / Invested Capital. Normally when using only ROIC as a measure, it is compared with the company’s WACC, with the difference represented as the ROIC to WACC spread (ROIC – WACC). A result less than zero does not meet the company’s return on invested capital. EVA simply combines WACC directly into the calculation. EVA is very closely tied to NPV; NPV measures the company’s discounted free cash flow against its cost of capital, i.e., the discount rate. The present value of EVA cash flows should be equal to the company’s discounted free cash flow. Or, EVACashFlow EVA1 EVA2 EVAn = NPV FFCF ..... 1 2 (1 WACC) (1 WACC) (1 WACC) n 3. Do you think Sam has developed a significant metric that can be used for evaluating return on invested capital? Please explain your answer. Yes, however the student should understand that the measure is not bullet-proof. Other metrics (quantitative and qualitative) should be considered when determining the best allocation of capital. These explanations will vary from student-to-student but should include such things as management and companywide adoption of the metric, side effects on being too overly dependant on the metric, etc. 4. In determining a company’s free cash flow and invested capital, several considerations and financial adjustments mush be considered to derive at these numbers. Please explain these adjustments. The student here should list how the derivation of NOAPT (EBIAT) is derived and invested capital. Although the paper assumes a working WACC, they may include a description of calculation for the company’s cost of capital. The NOPAT description should explain adjustments for anything that is considered non-operational, such as the exclusion of outside investment income, non-recurring interest, gains or losses, tax shields, etc. Invested capital shows only the net new capital invested into the project. 3/9/2016 8 FNC 330 Created for FNC 330: Richard Lee 5. Are there possible caveats or problems with using EVA? Yes, for firms in their growth stage (entrepreneurial start-ups, etc.) EVA may appear extremely low or even negative. The student should understand that it may be desirable in certain situations to have poor returns on capital. This could occur when the firm is investing heavily to capture initial market share, with the tradeoff being eventual long term or back ended profits. For this reason, the student should understand that is important to compare firms at the same stage of development within a certain sector and that EVA will change depending on the life-cycle of the product or company. Index of Terms ATM – Asynchronous Transfer Mode: A communications protocol for wide area networks CAPEX – Capital Expenditures EVA – Economic Value Added MPLS – Multi protocol label switching: A communications protocol for wide area networks NOPAT – Net operating profit after tax NPV – Net present value ROIC – Return on invested capital WACC – Weighted average coast of capital References Bennett G. Stewart (1990). The Quest for Value, Harper Business Berry, J. (January, 2003) How to Apply EVA to I.T. CIO Magazine, Retrieved July 7, 2004, from http://www.cio.com/archive/011503/eva.html Damordoran, W. Economic Value Added (EVA). Notes posted to http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/lectures/eva.html Katz, R., L., Junqueira, C. Managerial Strategies and the Future of ROIC in Telecommunications. Booz Allen Hamilton. Shrieves, R., E., Wachowicz, J., M. (2001). Economic Value Added (EVATM), and Net Present Value: A Reconciliation of Variations of Discounted-Cash-Flow (DCF) Valuation. The Engineering Economist, 46, 33-53. 3/9/2016 9