Chapter 40 – supply-side policies Objectives of the chapter How governments can increase AS in the economy. • i. Define: S-side policies, link to PPF ii. Draw PPFs showing how various interventionist and market-based S-side policies can shift the PPF. Describe/outline: market-based S-side and interventionist S-side iii. Explain why there is unemployment even when the labour market is in equilibrium. Explain/distinguish/draw: a) lab mkt policies; b) competition policies; c) tax policies iv. • Explain… how S-side policies are intended to be used on the Big 4…e.g. the main macro goals Explain how supply-side policies serve to shift AS and also v. • Explain and give examples of Sside policies for labour markets, tax policies and competition. Use examples at all times. Evaluate/discuss: SR costs of S-side and LR benefits – another type of trade-off! Difficulties in implementing S-side – political and time issues. • • Define supply side policies and link to the PPF. • Explain how S-side policies hope to address the main macro goals and increase the LR trend of potential output in an economy over time. • Evaluate the effects of S-side policies in the SR and LR. Take care to address the SR costs involved. • Evaluate possible trade-offs, limitations and weaknesses of Sside policies. vi. • It is not by accident that S-side policies are right after the chapter on monetary policy! The grand ol’ father of monetarism was Milton Friedman and it is from his line of theoretical reasoning that S-side policies evolved. Often one hears the term “neo-classical” in line with “monetarist” and “supply-side” economics. The reason is that they all come from a common base; markets work and for the optimal possible outcome one should remove government rules and regulations to the greatest possible extent and limit government intervention. The market “takes care of itself” and “supply is its own demand”. A good deal of supply-side economics took its start in a kind of counter-reaction to Keynesian D-side economics. D-side (Keynesian) economics basically states that 1 an active and interventionist Keynes's main thesis was that laissez-faire economics was increasingly becoming invalid and that there was a very strong need for active government intervention to achieve and maintain full employment. 1 government both can and should use mon/fiscal policy to attain full employment via D-side policies. Key terms: S-side, labour market, Reagan and Thatcher, Laffer curve (NPOS!), Phillips curve (NPOS), money illusion (NPOS), stagflation, labour mobility (“…between jobs and between regions…”), privatisation, deregulation, market incentives… Diagram: The effects of supply-side policy - successful supply-side policy will shift the AS curve to the right. Stolen from http://economicsonline.co.uk/Global_economics/Supplyside_policies.html Notes on syllabus: 1) Definition of S-side policies; any government policy aimed at increasing AS Supply-side economics arose out of the same mould as the monetarist/neo-classical school during the 1980s and focuses on policies which enhance the long run output potential in the economy by way of creating well-functioning factor markets and incentives for both producers and labourers. Supply-side policies are in essence microeconomic policies, since the By lowering interest rates to stimulate investment and purposely engaging in deficit spending and redistributing income to stimulate consumption expenditure, government could be used as an effective tool to attain full employment and restore an economy to full strength. This ideology today is known as "Keynesian" economics. (From http://www.economictheories.org/2008/07/keynesmacroeconomics-keynesian.html) policies target specific markets such as the labour or capital market. Supply-side policies are highly market orientated, aiming to ‘liberate’ markets which are hindered from clearing due to various forms of market ‘impurities’ such as labour legislation and government intervention. I have collected the various supply-side policies under three main rubrics; labour, taxes and competition. 1. Labour: Supply-side economics in labour markets centre on increasing labour mobility – both in terms of geography location, industry and ‘time between jobs’ – by increasing the incentives of firms to hire and labourers to accept jobs. The basic ideal is to increase the supply and overall quality of labour while creating mechanisms for well-functioning labour markets. The following points are often put forward: 2. Change labour laws and make it easier for firms to hire and fire, reducing search costs and risks for firms while decreasing between-job time for labourers. Education and re-training schemes will increase the quality of labour – e.g. labour capital – and increase the speed by which redundant labour can be reallocated. Such schemes can be encouraged by giving tax breaks to firms which implement them. Reducing/abolishing regional support schemes in order to highlight differences in regional unemployment levels and thus encourage people to move to new jobs in other regions. Cutting back on social welfare/unemployment benefits in order to encourage people to accept jobs by increasing the opportunity costs of unemployment. Reducing union power – say, by making sympathy strikes illegal and making collective bargaining harder – in order to reduce wage stickiness. Abolish minimum wages to allow market forces to set wages. Taxes: By increasing both the quality and quantity of labour supply and capital, supply-side economics aims to increase the long run aggregate supply: Tax breaks/deductions to firms for (re-) investment will stimulate investment expenditure. Decrease marginal tax rates on income as an incentive for labourers to work more; and decrease labour taxes in order to decrease labour costs for firms. Lower taxes on dividends (a share of company profits paid to shareholders) can increase investment funding for firms since more people will be willing to buy shares. 3. Lower profit (corporate) taxes encourage further investment by firms. Competition: Finally, supply-side economists point to the importance of competition in an economy as an overriding element in increasing long run aggregate supply: Privatisation of government-run businesses and deregulation of markets are staple supply-side measures in increasing competitive forces in an economy. Grant subsidies or tax reductions for firms funding R&D centres. Encourage entrepreneurship by granting “tax holidays” and creating beneficial funding schemes for start-ups, e.g. new firms. Trade liberalisation – reducing tariffs (= import tariffs) and other barriers to free trade – and free capital flows (easier foreign investment) are policies often put forward by supply-siders. The main theme in supply-policies is that market forces are far better at creating output in the long run than government intervention in the form of demand management. Sustainable – long run – increases in GDP can only be increased, according to this neo-classically orientated view, by increasing long run aggregate supply. Allowing firms to make a profit under competitive forces and creating conditions for factor markets to clear will shift the long run aggregate supply curve and therefore decrease the natural rate of unemployment. Evaluation Benefits of S-side policies a. Supply-side policies can help reduce inflationary pressure in the long term because of efficiency and productivity gains in the product and labour markets. b. They can also help create real jobs and sustainable growth through their positive effect on labour productivity and competitiveness. Increases in competitiveness will also help improve the balance of payments. i. If S-side policies ↑productivity and ↓i in the Homec, then relative to other countries Homec is more competitive. ii. That means M↓ and X↑ → improvement in current account in BoP. c. Finally, supply-side policy is less likely to create conflicts between the main objectives of stable prices, sustainable growth, full employment and a balance of payments. This partly explains the popularity of supply-side policies over the last 25 years. Costs of S-side policies a. However, supply-side policy can take a long time to work its way through the economy. For example, improving the quality of human capital, through education and training, is unlikely to yield quick results. The benefits of deregulation can only be seen after new firms have entered the market, and this may also take a long time. b. In addition, supply-side policy is very costly to implement. For example, the provision of education and training is highly labour intensive and extremely costly, certainly in comparison with changes in interest rates. c. Furthermore, some specific types of supply-side policy may be strongly resisted as they may reduce the power of various interest groups. For example, in product markets, profits may suffer as a result of competition policy, and in labour markets the interests of trade unions may be threatened by labour market reforms. d. Finally, there is the issue of equity. Many supply-side measures have a negative effect on the distribution of income, at least in the short-term. For example, lower taxes rates, reduced union power, and privatisation have all contributed to a widening of the gap between rich and poor. i. When W↓ in low income areas, the gap widens between rich and poor ii. Lower U/soc benefits help widen the gap too iii. High social costs of S-side policies…Hire/fire policies + ↓U benefits + privatisation + increased competition + less union power = higher unemployment in the SR