28TH ACF COUNCIL MEETING REPORT 12th February 2009 (Thursday) 1400 hours -1800 hours The Sultan Hotel Jakarta, Indonesia COUNTRY REPORT BY MASTER BUILDERS ASSOCIATION MALAYSIA OVERVIEW OF MALAYSIA’S ECONOMY IN 2008 The Malaysian economy registers a growth of 4.7% in third quarter of 2008, down 2.4% and 2% respectively compared to the first quarter (7.4%) and second quarter (6.7%) of 2008. It was predicted that the GDP this year to be at 5% amidst the sharp deterioration in the global economic and international financial environment. Table 1 showed Malaysia Gross Domestic Products (GDP) Growth Rates1. Table 1: GDP Growth Rates Similarly, the construction sector down from 5.3% to 3.9% and hit 1.2% in the first quarter, second quarter and the third quarter respectively for this year as a result of weaker activity in the residential and civil engineering segment couple with higher prices of building materials. According to CIDB Malaysia’s census, a total of 3,542 projects worth RM42.8 billion (US$11.88 billion)2 was awarded as at 3rd Quarter 2008. The said amount has shown no significant differences as compare to the same period in 2007 where a total of 3,725 projects worth 1 Department of Statistic, Malaysia (updated as of 30th November 2008) 2 Exchange rate RM1.00 = RM3.60 RM39.07 billion (US$11.16 billion) was awarded3. The main deterioration of growth in the construction sector may attribute to the facts that the real value of projects deteriorates due to higher prices of building materials. Statistic on GDP Growth is attached as per Appendix 1. The main challenge faced in 2008 was to overcome the increase in prices of construction materials especially cement, bitumen, steel and fuel. The increase was partially contributed by rising fuel prices and also unscrupulous parties who are trying to profit from such the situation. The other main challenge was the loss of skilled manpower resources to overseas construction markets as well as the difficulty in getter locals to join the construction industry. Nevertheless towards end of 2008, the above issues were less significant due to the global economy slowdown. PROSPECTS IN 2009 The crisis in US and Europe will definitely make an impact on the global economy and on the Malaysian economy in 2009. Last November the Government has announced a RM7 billion (US$1.94 billion) stimulus package to reinforce the economy, strengthen national resilience and maintain economic growth momentum in face of the global financial crisis. The Government has reduced its 2009 projected GDP growth from prior forecast of 5.4% to 3.5% and revised its fiscal deficit target from 3.6% to 4.8%, while the construction GDP is targeted to growth at 3.5% in 2009. The industry is certainly looking forward to the additional stimulus packages (yet to be announced by the Government soon before mid February 2009) which aim to boost the country’s economy by raising domestic demand in dealing with the global crisis. Prices of most construction building materials are likely to remain stable in 2009 amid slowing demand and lower production costs on falling commodity prices. It was predicted that prices of all construction materials would eventually drop closer to the levels before the fuel hike in June last year. However, it is important to note that due to various Governments in the world are in the effort of saving their economy via various stimulus packages, building materials prices such as steel might face upward pressure again. ISSUES RELATING TO BUILDING MATERIALS AND THE VARIATION OF PRICE CLAUSE BUILDING MATERIALS Demand created in growth regions such as Middle East, Brazil, Russia, India and China resulted in huge inflow of investment in infrastructure development and real estate. Arising from demand created by these markets, commodities’ speculators see it as “golden” opportunity, thus pushing all commodities to record breaking and unrealistic prices. The construction industry is probably the worst hit by the huge jump in crude oil prices and with it the opening of a pandora box unleashing across the board increases in the price of almost everything. Building material prices soared to unrealistic heights. 3 Exchange rate RM1.00 = RM3.50 Diesel was increased 63% from RM1.58 (US$0.45) per litre to RM2.58 (US$0.74) per litre on 5th June 2008. In tandem with diesel price increase, all building materials were being raised by 30% - 60% overnight. Steel bar prices have gone from an industry high of RM4,100.00 (US$1171.45) per tonne to an average of about RM1,900.00 (US$542.86) to RM2,100.00 (US$600) depending on sizes per metric tonne effective 25 th November 2008 according to a circular by Malaysian Iron and Steel Industry Federation (MISIF). In the eye of observer of non construction industry, the announcement of steel bars liberalization by the Government on 12th May 2008 was seems to help the construction industry by lowering the local prices to regional prices. However, local millers has took advantage of the lack of understanding in the importation process and further raised the price to RM4,000.00 (US1142.86) per tonne in June 2008 and reaching as high as RM4,100.00 (US1171.45) per tonne in July 2008, while the regional steel bar prices were hovering around RM3,100.00 (US885.71) to RM3,600.00 (US$1028.57) per tonne. Nevertheless with much determination and effort, MBAM is scheduled to bring in the first batch of steel bars (approximately 20,000 tonne) by February 2009 from Thailand via land. Meanwhile the Government liberalise the cement industry on 5 th June 2008 with the intention to ease the local cement supply pressure by scrapping the ceiling prices, reduce the import duties from 50% to 10% and subsequently duty free by 15th November 2008. Regret to note that, immediately after the removal of Government Ceiling Price (GCP), cement prices has jumped by 10% from RM12.00 (US$3.43) per 50kg to RM13.25 (US$3.79) per 50kg and subsequently rose further to RM14.00 (US$4.00) per 50kg. In comparison to the prices in year 2007, as of August 2008 cement prices has increased by 30%. Details are as per Table 2 – Prices of Cement (1990-2008). Table 2: Prices of Cement (1990 – 2008) Item Unit 1990 – 1995 1996 – 19.12.06 20.12.06 – 2007 *Before 05.06.08 Aftermath 05.06.08 ** 01.08.08 RM10.85 price increase 1 bag @ RM14.00 Cement RM9.10 RM9.90 were RM12.00 RM13.25 50 kg RM15.00 backdated to 01.12.06 Note: * Unofficial grey market price for bag cement ** Official price announced by Lafarge Cement only, however at some places, contractors are paying RM18.00 (US$5.14) – RM25.00 (US$7.14) per 50kg bag Despite higher prices, there is a persistent shortage in cement supply during the 2nd quarter on average waiting period between 2 to 3 weeks. This has caused delays at construction sites and incurred unnecessary costs to contractors. While the import of cement is allowed by the Government, MBAM cautioned that importation of cement may face several constraints such as quality compliance, logistics etc and that imported cement may not necessary be cheaper in view of rising sea-freight charges. Nonetheless, MBAM would consider importing cement if the local prices remain uncompetitive. Major Building Materials Indicative Price (2006-2008) is as per Appendix 2. CONTRACTS & PRACTICE Variation of Price (VOP) Material prices have been on an uptrend since early 2008, causing contractors’ overall costs to increase by more than 20%. Many contractors have asked for a revision in their contract prices following the spike in prices of essential building materials then. As a result, the Government has agreed to adjust the price of construction material following increases in construction material and fuel costs in to ease the burden on contractors in July 2008. The materials that come under VOP scheme can be categorised under: 1) Civil Works - 11 items, 2) Building Works - 15 items, 3) M & E Works - 7 items. These items are such as steel, cement, bitumen, premix, sand, gravel, guardrail, fabric reinforcement, copper, water and sewerage pipes, diesel and petrol, cables, switchgear, generators, etc. The said ruling is applicable for projects implemented after 1 st January 2008 including design & build projects on 50:50 cost sharing basis. For conventional mechanical and electrical (M&E) works, the VOP was expanded for materials such as copper and steel, effective 1st January 2008. The above move had benefited to most local construction companies with local government projects. Construction Industry Payment and Adjudication Act (CIPAA) A main issue affecting the construction industry has always been the problem of delayed as well as non-payment. Partly because of the complexity of construction work and partly because of financing issues, there are bound to be disputes relating to non-payment. Remedies such as suspension of work and direct payment are difficult to be properly and lawfully exercised unless there are expressed provisions in the contract and the disputes are resolved by an independent third party. The existing related statutory laws such as the Malaysia Contracts Act 1950, Sale of Goods Act 1957 and Arbitration Act 2005 can be applied generally and are not efficient enough to deal with current problems. To address the problem, various recommendations were made during a construction industry roundtable in June 2004 which was chaired by the former Works Minister Datuk Seri S. Samy Vellu. One recommendation was for the creation of a Malaysian Construction Industry Payment and Adjudication Act (CIPAA). Based on the feedback, certain parties (Malaysia Bar Council and Attorney General’s Office) have some strong reservations on the proposed Act. Nevertheless MBAM will continues urge the Government to facilitate the speedy enactment of CIPAA as the Act will help contractors across the board from Grade G7 to Grade G1 to survive during this difficult period where banks may adopt more prudent lending policies and the overall expected outlook for 2009 does not seem promising. MANPOWER RESOURCES Training Construction Workers At a paper presentation4 at the 1st Malaysian Construction Summit 2008 held on 6th June 2008, it was reported that 31.5% local construction personnel will reach the age of 50 years and above in 10 years from now. Table 3 showed the Local Workforce Based on Registration Category & Age. Table 3: Local Workforce Based on Registration Category & Age Age at 31.12.2007 Category Total < 31 31-40 > 40 General worker 108,44 58,377 68,247 235,168 Semi-skilled worker 24,623 8,897 7,527 41,047 Skilled worker 40,193 33,023 41,575 114,791 Sub Total 173,360 100,297 117,349 391,006 Supervisor 7,065 12,668 24,588 44,321 Construction Managers & Professional 11,020 21,436 34,710 67,166 Sub Total 18,085 34,104 52,298 111,487 191,445 134,401 176,647 Total 502,493 (38.1%) (26.7%) (35.1%) Note: There are about 300,000 legal foreign construction workers in addition to 391,000 local workforce (43%) of the total construction workers. In view of this the Government has directed Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB) to train at least 100,000 skilled construction workers in technical fields such as welding, management and safety in 2009. Construction workers are encouraged to obtain skills certification through accreditation and skills training conducted by CIDB. The cost of accreditation and skills training for local workers will be borne by CIDB. The announcement is in line with MBAM's constant call to address the shortage of skilled construction workers in this country, as well as the need to increase the quality of trained construction workers. MBAM is still awaiting further announcement from CIDB Malaysia. Skills Enhancement Programme MBAM’s proposal with regards to the Skills Enhancement Programme for “Kepala” or “Foreman” was recently accepted by CIDB Malaysia and will be commencing soon. The objective of the programme was to train the “Kepala” and enhance their skills and efficiencies at construction site. Subsequently the skills, knowledge and experiences will be passed down to their subordinate workers. This on-the-job training will focus on the current skills needs or practices in construction with the emphasis on developing appropriate worker attitudes, discipline, teamwork, good housekeeping, weaknesses in practice such as to reduce re-works by doing first time right as well as safety awareness. Upon completion of this programme, it is targeted to train at least 7,680 foremen at sites. 4 Paper presented by Chief Executive of CIDB Malaysia, Datuk Ir. Hamzah Hasan Industrialised Building System (IBS) Malaysia dependence on foreign labour is extremely high at present with some estimated 2.2 million workers. There are about 312,000 legal construction workers as at 31 st July 2008. Table 4 showed Total Foreign Workers in the Construction Sector. The Government would continue adopting IBS in a move to reduce dependency on foreign labour while improving the efficiency of the nation's construction industry. Effective 1st September 2008, all Government projects tender above the value RM6.9 billion (US$1.92) must apply at least 70% of IBS. It was announced that a total of 406 projects totaling RM9.4 billion (US$2.69 billion) would adopt IBS with 189 of the projects having been tendered out. Additional 121 projects under the IBS would be tendered out between 2009 and 2010. Table 4: Foreign Workers in the Construction Sector Year Total in the Construction Country **2015e 1,500,000 180,000 *2015 1,530,000 200,000 *2010 1,850,000 285,700 2008 (31 July 2008) 2,109.954 312,573 2007 (October) 2,106,100 302,400 2006 1,869,209 267,809 2005 1,815,238 281,780 2004 1,470,000 na 2003 1,057,156 269,900 ** Ministry of Human Resources Target Ceiling * Economic Planning Unit forecast on Workforce Need na – not available Share of Construction (%) 12.00 13.10 15.40 14.81 14.40 14.33 15.30 na 24.70 Updated on 22 December 2008 MACHINERY RESOURCES MBAM urges the Government to reduce the import duty and sales tax on heavy machinery and spare parts used in construction on a systematic basis within two years until it is 5%-10% for import duty and 5% for sales tax. Import duty and sales tax are still required to avoid large scale dumping of second-hand machinery in Malaysia and MBAM is aware that AFTA will come into effect from 2010 onwards. But AFTA has little effect on construction equipment which is largely purchased from European countries and China. MBAM has proposed to the Government that heavy equipment classification be split to distinguish the sectors they are used as follows: (i) Heavy equipment for construction, logging, mining, power generation and material handling (ii) Heavy equipment for air, marine and road transportation (iii) Heavy equipment for manufacturing and industrial sector Currently, the abovementioned heavy machineries are still lumped together. However, heavy machineries used in construction can be distinguished under The Malaysian Trade Classification and Customs Duties Order No. 84.26 to 84.31. The situation is also similar with spare parts for these equipments. Considering that they are lumped together with the automobile industry under the Customs Duties Order, it is advisable that they be separated as the import duty and sales tax is there to promote the local automobile industry. GOING GLOBAL Malaysian builders continue to make their presence felt in the global construction market and secured RM12,576.61 million (US$3,593.32 million) in 2008 for 20 projects. Table 5 showed Oversea Project Undertaken by Malaysian Contractors from Year 1986-2008. Prospects are still fairly good for companies having prior experience and financial capabilities going overseas even though there may be some impact of the global slowdown. There are a number of local companies that have done well such as IJM Corporation, WCT, Gamuda, Sunway, Ireka and Bina Puri Holdings, Zelan to name a few. Table 5: Overseas Projects Undertaken By Malaysian Contractors (Year Awarded 1986 To 2008) Year Item Awarded Completed Projects Total Nos. Amount (RM Mil) Current Projects Total Nos. Amount (RM Mil) Total Projects Total Nos. Amount (RM Mil) Amount (US$ Mil) 1 19861991 7 61.71 1 23.75 8 85.46 24.42 2 1992 4 128.88 0 0.00 4 128.88 36.82 3 1993 6 21.76 0 0.00 6 21.76 6.22 4 1994 11 796.26 0 0.00 11 796.26 227.50 5 1995 23 3,136.37 0 0.00 23 3,136.37 896.11 6 1996 23 807.27 0 0.00 23 807.27 230.65 7 1997 24 1,632.07 0 0.00 24 1,632.07 466.31 8 1998 27 867.60 0 0.00 27 867.60 247.89 9 1999 37 716.19 0 0.00 37 716.19 204.63 10 2000 24 2,134.63 0 0.00 24 2,134.63 609.89 11 2001 34 2,444.21 0 0.00 34 2,444.21 698.35 12 2002 54 4,891.67 2 220.50 56 5,112.17 1,460.62 13 2003 38 1,976.20 8 3,760.99 46 5,737.19 1,639.20 14 2004 21 2,888.07 0 0.00 21 2,888.07 825.16 15 2005 30 2,930.54 14 7,354.06 44 10,284.60 2,938.46 16 2006 22 2,937.17 27 29,871.82 49 32,808.99 9,374.00 17 2007 9 509.88 39 18,142.74 48 18,652.62 5,329.32 18 2008 6 15.49 14 12,561.12 20 12,576.61 3,593.32 19 2009 0 0.00 1 1,020.66 1 1,020.66 291.62 106 72,955.64 506 101,851.61 29,100.46 TOTAL 400 28,895.97 Source: International Division, CIDB Malaysia APPENDIX 1 GDP Growth (2002 to 2008) Year Quarter Real GDP 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year Year Year 1st 2006 2007 2008 2nd 3rd 4th Year 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Year 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Year 1st 2nd 3rd 9MP MidTerm Review 4.1 5.3 7.1 6.1 4.1 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.9 6.2 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.5 5.7 6.7 7.3 6.3 7.4 6.7 4.7 6.0 Manufacturing 4.0 8.2 8.8 5.7 3.1 5.7 7.9 5.1 8.5 8.4 7.1 7.1 7.8 2.0 1.5 3.3 5.6 3.1 7.0 5.6 1.8 3.5 Services 4.1 4.1 6.7 6.8 6.0 7.3 5.9 6.5 5.9 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 9.7 9.2 10.5 9.1 9.6 7.9 8.2 7.1 7.9 Agriculture 3.0 5.5 5.0 6.1 3.3 0.9 -1.5 2.5 7.4 5.6 6.2 6.4 6.4 2.2 -0.9 0.7 6.9 2.2 6.3 6.0 3.0 4.4 Mining 3.7 4.8 4.1 3.4 -1.5 3.4 -2.0 -0.8 -1.3 -1.2 -1.2 -0.2 -0.9 -0.6 7.7 2.3 7.2 4.2 3.7 -0.5 -0.3 3.4 Construction 2.3 1.9 -1.9 -2.4 -2.0 -1.4 -0.6 -1.6 -1.9 -0.5 -0.4 4.8 4.7 4.7 5.5 5.3 3.9 1.2 5.8 0.6 -0.5 Source : Central Bank of Malaysia (BNM), Department of Statistics, Malaysia & CIDB Malaysia Updated on 28th November 2008 4.0 APPENDIX 2 MBAM Survey on Major Building Materials Indicative Price Material Purchase Price 4Q2007 1Q2008 RM RM Unit 2006 RM 1Q2007 RM 2Q2007 RM 3Q2007 RM tonne tonne 24.00 22.00 24.60 22.60 25.00 24.00 25.00 24.00 26.00 24.80 tonne 24.00 25.00 25.20 25.50 – Grade 40 – Grade 30 m3 m3 152.00 140.00 153.00 144.00 169.00 146.00 – Grade 25 – Grade 20 Reinforcement bar Mild steel 6 mm - 10mm 12 mm 16 mm - 25mm High tensile 6 mm - 10mm 12 mm 16mm - 25 mm Mesh fabric reinforcement A6 m3 m3 132.00 126.00 136.00 129.00 tonne tonne tonne 1,828.33 1,828.33 1,717.33 tonne tonne tonne Concrete work Sand – Washed – Unwashed Aggregate – Coarse aggregate (20mm) Ready-mix concrete (normal mix) A8 Brickwork Common clay brick Cement sand brick Cement Ordinary Portland cement (OPC) Ordinary Portland cement (OPC) Roofing Clay Roof Tile Concrete Roof Tile 2Q2008 RM 12/6/2008 RM 3Q2008 RM 4Q2008 RM 27.00 25.50 31.00 29.00 34.00 31.00 28.00 - 43.00 28.00 - 34.00 28.00 - 40.00 26.00 - 36.00 26.00 26.65 28.10 33.00 28.00 - 38.00 25.00 - 35.00 165.90 148.00 174.00 156.20 186.80 167.20 190.70 170.00 234.00 219.00 217.00 - 242.00 195.00 - 220.00 210.00 - 240.00 192.00 - 218.00 138.70 133.00 142.00 135.00 147.70 140.00 160.00 151.20 162.00 155.30 200.00 192.00 167.00 - 211.00 178.00 - 203.00 160.00 - 209.00 175.00 - 201.00 2,135.00 2,098.00 2,031.00 2,177.00 2,170.00 2,087.00 2,200.00 2,200.00 2,122.00 2,540.00 2,540.00 2,349.00 3,183.00 3,066.00 3,025.00 3,850.00 3,808.00 3,718.00 4,050.00 4,050.00 3,910.00 3,600 - 4,100 3,300 - 4,100 3,250 - 3,900 2,100 - 3,250 1,835 - 3,250 1,835 - 3,250 1,855.00 1,815.00 1,743.00 2,175.00 2,135.00 2,070.00 2,200.00 2,230.00 2,135.00 2,522.00 2,579.00 2,385.00 2,578.00 2,474.00 2,396.00 3,169.00 3,115.00 3,028.00 3,920.00 3,882.00 3,720.00 4,050.00 4,000.00 3,950.00 2,750 - 4,200 3,250 - 4,200 3,080 - 4,100 2,600 - 4,000 2,600 - 3,950 2,450 - 3,900 m2 4.46 5.00 5.00 5.20 6.00 7.25 9.00 10.00 6.70 - 15.00 5.10 - 15.00 m2 7.88 8.50 8.60 8.80 10.55 13.00 16.00 17.80 11.00 - 26.70 9.10 - 26.70 piece piece 0.24 0.14 0.24 0.14 0.24 0.14 0.25 0.16 0.25 0.16 0.25 0.17 0.26 0.18 0.29 0.20 0.23 - 0.32 0.18 - 0.25 0.25 - 0.315 0.185 - 0.23 50kg/bag Bulk/Tonne 10.10 200.67 10.95 219.00 10.95 219.00 11.65 219.00 11.13 219.00 12.00 219.00 13.25 265.00 14.50 290.00 14.25 - 17.00 285.00 - 340.00 13.25 - 16.00 265.00 - 320.00 piece piece 2.90 1.15 2.90 1.15 3.00 1.20 3.00 1.25 3.10 1.25 3.20 1.26 3.20 1.26 N/A 1.60 1.21 - 4.50 1.15 - 2.00 1.21 - 4.50 1.18 - 2.00 Carpentry Sawn timber "1" x 2" "2" x 3" "2" x 4" Plywood (WBP) 12mm x 4' x 8' Paint Emulsion Paint: First Grade Commercial Grade Enamel Paint Primer (water-base) Primer (oil-base) Weatherproof External Paint External Work Crusher-run Bitumenious Mix: Dense Bitumen Macadam Asphatic Concrete Bitumen Course Asphatic Concrete Wearing Course Compiled by : MBAM 2nd December 2008 tonne tonne tonne 660.00 633.00 635.00 700.00 635.00 698.00 720.00 640.00 700.00 740.00 644.00 700.00 786.70 646.00 710.00 769.50 648.00 618.70 776.00 650.00 646.00 910.00 800.00 900.00 720 - 900 580 - 900 610 - 900 730 - 900 580 - 950 590 - 980 sheet 43.00 43.50 44.00 44.00 44.50 45.35 46.00 48.00 43.00 - 54.00 42.00 - 53.00 5 litre 5 litre 5 litre 5 litre 5 litre 5 litre 75.00 28.00 82.00 82.00 N/A 85.00 75.00 36.00 85.00 85.00 50.00 88.00 75.50 38.00 85.50 85.50 N/A N/A 75.50 40.00 87.00 87.00 N/A N/A 76.00 45.00 88.00 88.00 46.00 86.25 76.00 47.60 88.50 88.50 N/A 85.00 76.50 47.60 90.50 90.50 N/A 85.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 91.00 58.00 - 95.00 58.00 - 85.00 70.00 - 92.00 63.00 - 80.00 58.00 - 113.00 59.00 - 110.00 68.00 - 100.00 62.00 - 96.00 85.00 - 105.00 45.00 - 110.00 60.00 - 128.00 62.50 - 128.00 tonne 17.00 17.00 17.50 18.70 20.50 22.15 22.90 25.00 22.00 - 31.00 21.50 - 31.00 tonne tonne tonne N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,480 - 1,900 150.00 -197.00 146.00 - 200.00 1,200 - 1,500 124.00 - 184.00 134.00 - 188.00 115.00 120.00 122.00 117.00 130.00 130.00 118.50 132.60 134.40 125.00 133.00 135.00 117.00 125.00 135.00 117.00 129.00 139.00