POL200
Kennedy & Gaia
19.11.98
Global Futures
I.
Kennedy – preparing for the 21st Century
A. Who is Paul Kennedy?
 British historian at Yale University
 Rise and Fall of Great Powers (1989)
B. Kennedy’s project
1. analytical approach
a. not historical but relies on the perspective of
history
b. analysis of broad-based forces for change
c. focus on transnational devlopments
d. an analysis of winners and losers
2. forces of change
a. technological
b. economic
c. population
3. Threats
a. NOT military conflict, balance of power issues
b. The new forces of change are the threat
C. Books organization
1. part one – transnational forces of change
2. part two – specific consequences of change /
winners and losers
3. part three – how can a society best prepare?
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POL200
II.
Kennedy & Gaia
19.11.98
General Trends
A. Population Explosion
1. The Demographic Transition -- The Rev. Malthus
 exponential nature of population growth
 the limits to growth – mortality
a. The demographic transition
i. The mortality transition
 explanation: infant mortality, public health
 consequence of modernization
– industrialization, scientific understanding of
disease
ii. The fertility transition
 explanation: family income, access to birth
control, female education
 industrialisation, modernisation
2. Neo-Malthusianism
Shift in population  shift in global power
 role of imperialism
 role of fertility transition
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POL200
Kennedy & Gaia
19.11.98
B. Communications and Financial Revolution
The Information Age
1. post-industrial society
2. shift from a manufacturing to a service economy
a. computer software, accounting, lawyers
b. McDonalds & Burger King
3. Information
– computers
– telecommunications
– the web
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POL200
Kennedy & Gaia
19.11.98
4. Globalization & Globalism
a. A Global Village -- international travel
b. Telecommunications & the Web
c. Growth of International trade & finance
 focus on international finance
 opening of capital flow restrictions
 stock market internationalization
 international banking
d. MNCs
 increasing globalization
 growth of global conglomerates
5. Consequences of Globalism
a. The techno-optimists -- Liberals
b. The techno-pessimists – Luddites & Radicals
c. Technological neutrality
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Kennedy & Gaia
19.11.98
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POL200
Kennedy & Gaia
19.11.98
C. Agricultural Production & Biotechnology
1. green revolutions – problems associated
2. enough food for the future?
D. Robotics, Automation, New Industrial Revolution
1. increasing technological skills
2. loss of jobs for unskilled labor
E. Environmental Crisis
1. specific problems
2. global problems – global commons
F. Future of the Nation-State
1. MNCs outside control of individual states
2. Failure of northern leadership
3. Failure cultural integration
III. Winners & Losers
A. Interconnectedness of problem
B. North- South Dynamic
C. Winners
1. those states that can mobilize to reform
a. education
b. role of women
c. political leadership
2. the winners are…
Japan, Kopea, other East Asia trading states
Germany, Switzerland, some Scandinavian states
Maybe the EU as a whole
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POL200
Kennedy & Gaia
19.11.98
US iffy
Losers: African states
IV. Gaia
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