Unicorn Commodities (Private) Limited
Corporate Clearing Member
Pakistan Mercantile Exchange Limited
Date: 19th October 2011
DISCLAIMER
“This report is only the cumulative reflections and data from market
participants and does not render general or specific investment advice
and does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or
securities of any industry or company mentioned in this report. Unicorn
Commodities does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the
information reported. Traders/Investors are therefore responsible for
their own due diligence and analysis for taking positions in the market.”
NEWS HEADLINES
Stocks and euro advance on EU rescue hopes
Apple blames iPhone rumors for disappointing results
Intel outlook defies worries of PC decline
Nikkei up on euro zone bailout hopes but doubts remain
European shares rise on rescue fund report
Wall Street rallies on Europe, Apple falls late
US ECONOMIC RELEASES TODAY
5:30pm
USD
Building Permits
0.61M
0.63M
5:30pm
USD
Core CPI m/m
0.2%
0.2%
5:30pm
USD
CPI m/m
0.3%
0.4%
5:30pm
USD
Housing Starts
0.59M
0.57M
7:30pm
USD
Crude Oil Inventories
1.3M
1.3M
11:00pm
USD
Beige Book
OTHER IMPORTANT RELEASES
Actual Forecast Previous
3:25am
AUD
RBA Assist Gov Debelle
Speaks
4:30am
AUD
MI Leading Index m/m
6:48am
CNY
Foreign Direct Investment
ytd/y
7:00am
CNY
9:30am
1:00pm
0.8%
0.6%
16.6%
17.7%
CB Leading Index m/m
0.5%
0.6%
JPY
All Industries Activity m/m
-0.5%
0.2%
0.4%
EUR
Current Account
-5.0B
-7.3B
6.8B
0-0-9
0-0-9
1:30pm GBP
MPC Meeting Minutes
5:30pm
CAD
Leading Index m/m
0.2%
0.0%
GOLD
Gold price is expected to average $1875/oz in Q4, 2011 as the physical gold
demand continues to cushion prices before investment demand takes off. Even
though the volumes have softened, gold bar premium in Asia is pretty high,
indicating the strong demand for physical gold.
-The G-20 nations asked Europe to formulate a plan to resolve the debt crisis
within October 23. And this looks unlikely since many key issues are yet to be
fully defined.
-Spain's credit rating was downgraded by the S&P
-China is slowing as shown by the Q3 GDP decline. Chinese GDP fell to 9.1%,
the slowest since 2009.
-Long term interest in gold is resilient as shown by the Gold ETP holdings. Net
outflows for the month to date stand at just 3 tonnes against total holdings of
2179 tonnes.
-Gross longs in COMEX gold is at its lowest since 2009 while non-commercial
positions as a percentage of open interest are just 31%
-Gold bar premiums in Asia is at multi-month highs. In Dubai, Gold demand is
shifting from jewellery to investment.
-Gold output from South Africa is down 19.7% in August YoY due to safety
stoppages and wage negotiations. This indicates lower supplies into the
market.
-The Freeport McMoRan strike continues. The strike started on September 15
and was expected to be in effect till October 15. However, with the management
and workers unable to find any common ground, an extended strike is
underway.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Gold tumbled down towards 1643.50 after failing to further sustain above 1653
this morning.
As per current technical scenario, Gold still seems to be on verge of resuming
further south towards 1580 as long as it is trading below 1690 for the longer
term period.
The intraday resistance is supposed to be at 1653, sustain below which may
resume it south towards 1630 and then 1603.
On the upside, break of 1653 may pull it up towards 1680 and then 1703.
Today Gold is likely to trade in a range of:
US International Market
GOLD TECHNICAL LEVELS
1770$
Stop Level
1730 $
Resistance 3
1703 $
Resistance 2
1680 $
Resistance 1
1653 $
Support 1
1630 $
Support 2
1603 $
Support 3
1580 $
Stop Level
1610 $
CRUDE OIL
The inspections were aimed at enhancing awareness among local governments
and companies about safe production, and establishing mechanisms to prevent
oil leaks, Xinhua reported, quoting Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP)
spokesman Tao Detian.
The MEP and six other ministries had formed seven work groups to conduct
inspections of 11 coastal provinces and municipalities, including Guangdong,
Shanghai, Tianjin and Zhejiang, the report said.
The inspections, scheduled from late October to early November, would focus
on companies involved in onshore oil exploration and production, oil refining
and storage, pipeline transmission, and oil ports, it said.
China has experienced an increasing number of oil spills in recent years,
damaging the environment and threatening the safety of drinking water.
In September, the government ordered a full shutdown of the country's largest
offshore oil field, Penglai 19-3, operated by a subsidiary of ConocoPhillips, after
an oil spill there.
The leak has polluted 5,500 square kilometers of water and has been described
by the government as "the most serious marine ecological incident in China."
Last year, an explosion at two crude oil pipelines in the northeastern port of
Dalian triggered a major offshore oil spill, forcing top oil producer China
National Petroleum Corp to cut processing and importers to divert cargoes
elsewhere.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Crude Oil dropped back to 88.30 after failing to further sustain above 89.00
this morning.
As per current technical scenario, 89.20 is seen as intraday resistance, break
of which may pull it up towards 91.10 and then 93.20.
On the downward side, 86.40 is seen as intraday support, break of which may
bring it down towards 85.80 which is supposed to be a very strong intraday
support. Further break of 85.80 may bring another fall towards 82.80.
Today WTI is likely to trade in a range of:
US International Market
WTI TECHNICAL LEVELS
95.00$
Stop Level
93.20 $
Resistance 3
91.10 $
Resistance 2
89.70 $
Resistance 1
87.70 $
Support 1
86.30 $
Support 2
84.20 $
Support 3
82.20 $
Stop Level
70.00 $
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR SILVER
For Silver, the intraday resistance is supposed to be at 31.94, break of which
may pull it up towards 32.80 and then 33.55.
On the downside, as long as it is trading below 31.94, it may resume further
south towards 30.80 and then 29.60.
Today SILVER is likely to trade in a range of:
US International Market
SILVER TECHNICAL LEVELS
40.00$
Stop Level
34.80 $
Resistance 3
33.55 $
Resistance 2
32.80 $
Resistance 1
31.60
Support 1
30.80 $
Support 2
29.60 $
Support 3
28.90 $
Stop Level
25.00 $
For Gold /Silver /Crude Oil Future/ Mini Gold/IRRI-6 Rice account
opening, please contact us.
Best regards,
Imran Ali Jamani
Trader/Analyst
Cell
: 0334-3596330
Dir
: 021-35832712
Tel
: 021-35863011/02135863022
Fax
: 021-35870923/021-35870674
Unicorn Commodities (Private) Limited
Corporate Clearing Member
Pakistan Merchantile Exchange Limited
http://www.pmex.com.pk
Office Address:
M.C.F. 1-5, Khyaban-e- Iran road, Clifton, Karachi -75600
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