Argentina - Record global grain harvest
16 May 2013
THE world is tipped to produce record wheat and corn crops this year.
In its opening World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for the new season, the
US Department of Agriculture has forecast global wheat production at 701.1 million tonnes.
If the forecast eventuates by the end of the year, it will be the first time grain producers around
the world have harvested a wheat crop of more than 700 million tonnes.
Australian wheat production has been estimated at 24.5 million tonnes for the coming harvest.
“Production for 2013-14 is projected higher in all of the world’s major exporting countries, with the
largest increases expected in the FSU-12 (former Soviet Union countries) and EU-27 (European
Union), up 29.9 million tonnes and 6.7 million tonnes, respectively,” the USDA said.
“Production is projected higher for Australia, Argentina and Canada, up a collective 6.2 million
tonnes from the current year.
“Also affecting global trade prospects in 2013-14 are year-to-year production increases for major
importers, the Middle East and North Africa, where weather has been favourable for winter crops
since seeding last fall.”
The USDA has factored in declines in US wheat production, reflecting the drought and April
freezes in the southern and central plains region.
The department has forecast opening US wheat crop estimates of nearly 56 million tonnes, well
lower on last year’s harvest of 61.8 million tonnes but slightly higher than the 2011-12 crop of
54.4 million tonnes.
Global wheat stocks are expected to end the season at 186.4 million tonnes, leaving the stocks to
use ratio at a healthy 26.8 per cent.
The USDA has also forecast record global and US corn harvests.
The world is expected to produce 965.9 million tonnes of corn, while the US crop is tipped to be
359.2 million tonnes – the latter 86 million tonnes more than last year’s drought-affected harvest.
“The slow start to this year’s planting and the likelihood that progress by mid-May will remain well
behind the 10-year average reduce prospects for yields,” the USDA said.
The department was expecting US corn consumption to rise 16 per cent this year, with increased
use for ethanol, sweeteners and starch production and higher animal feed usage with anticipated
lower corn prices.
Canada - Where is the Rabobank grain
shortage now
16 May 2013
The season's first official forecast of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects was
released Friday morning by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Typically, there are no changes in
sown acreage from USDA's March Prospective Plantings report -- and this year was no different.
The real interest is in the harvested area and yield forecasts used.
Not surprisingly, the harvested area for winter wheat, especially HRW, dropped. Abandonment
was expected to be high this year and those expectations have been met. USDA estimated winter
wheat abandonment at 22 per cent, which was largely in line with industry expectations.
For corn there was anticipation as to whether USDA would drop its forecasted corn yield and by
how much. When correlated to May 5 planting progress there has been a tendency for USDA to
drop corn yield in years when planting is delayed. Given that planting is at its slowest pace in
three decades there were few who thought USDA would maintain yields at 163 bushels per acre
as released in February. Pre-report expectations had been for a corn yield of 160 bu./ac., and the
USDA was even lower at 158 bu./ac.
"Projected yield based on a weather adjusted trend, lowered to reflect the asymmetrical yield
response to July precipitation and the slow pace of planting progress as of early May," USDA
said in its report.
Even with the reduced yield, corn production remains comparatively high as a result of record
sown and harvested area. Since the USDA baseline numbers were released in January, corn
area has grown from 96 million acres to 97.3 million.
USDA placed corn production at 14.14 billion bushels compared to the previous estimate of 14.3
billion bushels, which reflects the worsening outlook for optimum corn production.
Total U.S. corn production is estimated at nearly 360 million tonnes, which is close to 30 tonnes
higher than the previous record set in 2009-10. Even with the increase in total demand, ending
stocks are set to balloon to 2.1 billion bushels at the end of 2013-14. Following the razor-thin
ending stocks of this year at 759 million bushels, the threefold increase will provide some cushion
for nervous marketers and users. The ending stocks estimate was slightly higher than the prereport average of 1.97 billion bushels.
Globally, corn ending stocks are expected to exceed 154 million tonnes. These levels of global
corn ending stocks have not been seen in over a decade prior to the massive U.S. ethanol
expansion. The abundant ending stocks are a result of record-breaking production in many
countries. Today's USDA estimate predicts record-high corn production in Argentina, Canada,
China, Russia and Ukraine. Records are also forecast to be set in various countries with smaller
corn production volumes. The estimates for the other main corn growers -- South Africa, Mexico
and Brazil -- are close to previous record production levels.
USDA's outlook is bearish and confirms industry analysts' commentary prior to the report. This
bearish note is reflected in USDA price estimates for corn dropping to $4.30-$5.10. But with only
a fraction of the 2013-14 corn crop in the ground there is a series of steps which must occur
before the grain market can have greater confidence in these forecasts becoming a reality.
-- Stuart McMillan writes from Winnipeg on weather and agronomic issues affecting Prairie
farmers.
USA - Corn price collapse is result of grain traders manipulating a false market
price
16 May 2013
Corn futures tumbled, capping the biggest weekly loss in more than a month, after the
government said U.S. inventories will double as farms recover from the drought in 2012 to
produce the biggest crop ever.
The harvest this year will surge 31 percent from 2012 to 14.14 billion bushels (359.2 million
metric tons), the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. The average estimate of
26 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was 14.12 billion. Reserves on Aug. 31, 2014, will more than
double from a year earlier to 2.004 billion bushels, the USDA said. Analysts in a Bloomberg
survey expected 2.038 billion.
Enlarge image Corn Tumbles as U.S. Sees Rebound From Drought With Record Crops
The harvest this year will surge 31 percent from 2012 to 14.14 billion bushels (50.91 million
metric tons), the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. Photographer: Daniel
Acker/Bloomberg
While planting is off to the slowest start since 1984 after rain and snow left muddy fields across
the Midwest, farmers intended to sow the most acres since 1936. Corn futures have tumbled 25
percent from a record $8.49 a bushel in August, joining wheat and soybeans last month in a bear
market that is reducing costs for buyers including hog-processor Smithfield Foods Inc. (SFD) and
ethanol makers such as Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM)
“We have the potential to build a substantial buffer of corn supplies this year,” Don Roose, the
president of U.S. Commodities Inc. in West Des Moines, Iowa, said before the report. “The
weather patterns remain volatile, and that means there is plenty of time for the crop to get bigger
or smaller, depending on weather the rest of the growing season.”
Corn futures for July delivery slumped 1.9 percent to close at $6.3625 a bushel at 1:15 p.m. on
the Chicago Board of Trade. The grain declined 3.8 percent for the week, the biggest loss since
April 5. Futures reached a 10-month low of $6.10 on April 24.
Lower Prices
The expected jump in supplies will send prices lower, according to the government. Cash corn
will average $4.70 a bushel in the year that starts Sept. 1, down from an estimated record $6.90 a
year earlier. In 2011, the grain averaged $6.22.
Average yields this year may rise to 158 bushels an acre, a record, from 123.4 bushels in 2012,
boosting output from an estimated 10.78 billion bushels last year, the USDA said. The
government in February projected a crop of 14.53 billion, based on 96.5 million planted acres and
an average yield of 163.6 bushels. The department lowered its estimate because of slow planting
caused by cold, wet weather in the main U.S. growing regions, it said.
In each of the past three years, USDA forecasts for record crops proved wrong because of
drought or heat, including a 13 percent decline in 2012 that was the largest slump in almost two
decades. As of May 5, the government estimated 12 percent of the crop was in the ground, less
than the 56 percent average of the prior five years.
World Supply
Global corn production was forecast at a record 965.94 million metric tons, a 13 percent jump
from the previous year, according to the USDA. Aggregated world inventories on Oct. 1, 2014,
will total 154.63 million tons, up from 125.43 million forecast for the end of this marketing year,
the USDA said. Reserves were projected to jump to 150.9 million tons, according to the average
of 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
USA - Grain forcasts must be taken with a pinch of salt
16 May 2013
The current high feed prices are here to stay as a result of a number of intricate
political, economic and demand-supply conditions. Understanding the
background helps to cope with the challenging conditions, Dr Terry Barr stated at
IPPE in Atlanta.
Yes times have been tough for the US feed and livestock business, but things
could turn around relatively quickly. This was the key message of Dr Terry Barr,
senior director of industry research at CoBank, when speaking in Atlanta, GA,
USA in January. His presentation at the International Production & Processing
Expo (IPPE) must have been exactly what everybody in the international poultry
industry was hoping to hear. His Milton L. Dendy keynote address was called
‘Drought, debt and politics drive economic and poultry outlook’ and as its name
suggests, he sought to explain the current situation of high feed prices, as well as
offer perspectives for the near future.
He illustrated the rise of commodity prices by introducing the term ‘new normal’
i.e. the price everybody is used to pay for commodities. He pointed to a phase of
extreme transition in the early seventies, when commodity prices grew rapidly.
This level, more or less stayed constant until 2005, when another phase of heavy
price rises commenced, see also Figure 1. Are we heading for another ‘new
normal’, he wondered.
In an attempt to identify the drivers behind the economic and political turmoil of
the last five years, he touched on the financial crisis, rising energy prices, the
rapid growth in emerging markets and low grain stocks. They can be continuing
stories over the next five years (Table 1).
India & China
The rise of India and China as economic drivers will continue, which will account
for 70% of the increase in the middle class between 2000 and 2030. Their ‘ability
to pay’ will set global market prices. He warned, however, ‘significant volatility will
prevail around the growth path’.
China has been spurring global economic growth driven by trading. The
European Union topped the list in 2012, followed by the United States, Hong
Kong, ASEAN and Japan. With crises in the advanced economies, however,
even China ‘suffered’ as growth figures have no longer contained double digits
as they were in 2005-2007. The year 2012 showed a ‘mere’ 8% growth, relatively
low when considering the recent history of China, and for 2013 Barr projected a
growth between 7.5 and 9.5%.
The question remains whether Europe is going to profit so much from the
challenges in the emerging markets. The euro region is struggling on its path to a
banking union. Having built a monetary union, many Southern European
countries like Greece, Italy and Spain have turned financially weak and there
does not seem to be an easy way out. Barr showed a projected 0.2% decrease
of the European economy’s size, followed by a projected 1.7% growth in 2014.
The United States, although in heavy weather too, may be in a better position to
profit from China’s continued growth, Barr said. Some major policy reforms are
going on in the US economy, like in the financial and energy sectors. In addition,
regulations for immigration, health care, regulatory oversight and deficit reduction
will go through uncertainty. This uncertainty, Barr pointed out, may be too large
for a rapid recovery of the US economy. The US national debt has grown very
rapidly to about USD 18 trillion – and this is likely to rise by another USD 9 trillion
in the years to come.
Translating this to US agriculture, the reforms on the US market are likely to have
an impact here too. The US Farm Bill, the primary agricultural and food policy
tool of the federal government, passed on average every five years by the United
States Congress – is to be discussed soon as the latest one dates from 2008.
Reduction of the US Farm Bill will be required.
Future prices
What will determine future agricultural commodity prices? Demand of crops by
the fuel and energy sector, South American crops, the global economy and the
2013 crop in the US itself are all playing around...
USA - Grain forecasts from the USDA
16 May 2013
Certainly, it is a big day for agricultural commodity investors pondering what
2013-14 might bring, with the US Department of Agriculture to publish its first full
forecasts for the season.
The USDA's monthly Wasde report on Friday begin a new seasonal cycle,
revealing initial estimates for how world supply and demand on crops such as
corn, cotton, soybeans and wheat will change in the forthcoming year.
But the onset of the new numbers does not mean that data for the aging 2012-13
will be overlooked – not this time, at least.
'Impossibly tight'
"The new crop data will be important, but the market will still look at cold crop
numbers," Rich Nelson at Allendale said.
"Stocks so tight that even a small revision can have an impact on the market."
Indeed, soybean supplies are so squeezed that there may be little scope for
cutting the stocks figure.
"The old crop balance sheet is already at pipeline, impossibly tight," Don Roose
US Commodities.
"So if there is a raise in the forecast for demand, we are going to have to balance
it out, and rely on some more imports."
Exports vs crush
And some tweaks on this score may indeed prove the case.
Macquarie analyst Chris Gadd, for one, flagged the potential for a "resilient pace"
of US exports of soymeal, one of the two key products made from crushing
soybeans, to alter USDA thinking.
"We would expect the USDA to increase their full-season estimate" for soymeal
shipments, Mr Gadd said.
"They will manage this growth in demand through a combination of increased US
soybean crush and maybe even reducing domestic soymeal consumption."
Ethanol vs feed
There is potential too for changes in the corn balance sheet for 2012-13 too, with
Macquarie flagged a pace of US ethanol production which implied a little more of
the grain used for making the biofuel than the 4.55bn bushels the last Wasde
suggested.
"We currently forecast corn usage for ethanol at 4.6bn bushels. This could quite
easily creep up to 4.65bn bushels though," Mr Gadd said.
But Deutsche Bank pointed to a potential boost to old crop corn supplies from
soft exports, about to face increasing competition from Brazil, and weaker-thanexpected US feed demand.
"With the US breeder flock getting older, leading to lower hatchability, and US
broiler eggs sent to Mexico to rebuild the flock post the recent bout of avian flu,
we see near-term corn demand from chicken producers lower than USDA
estimates," Deutsche Bank analyst Christina McGlone-Hahn said.
She forecast feed demand 50m bushels below the USDA's 4.4bn-bushel
forecast, and season-end stocks of 838m bushels - well above the current figure
of 757m bushels, which most other analysts expect to see a slight downgrade.
More sowings
Even so, whatever figure the USDA does come out with for corn inventories at
the close of this season, it will be well below the estimate for the end of 2013-14,
a season for which US growers are seen enjoying a far better ride that last year
when drought sent yields to a 17-year low...
USA - Record grain harvest and low corn prices
16 May 2013
Record-large U.S. corn and soybean crops will end three years of punishingly tight domestic
supplies, the government said on Friday in a report that offered the brightest outlook in years for
world food supplies.
One year after a brutal Midwest drought revived fears of grain shortages and higher prices, the
U.S. Agriculture Department projected the largest-ever global wheat, corn, rice and oilseed crops
in its first projections for the 2013/14 crop year. Global grain stocks would rise more than analysts
expected, with corn zooming 23 percent to a 13-year high, it said.
The forecasts tipped Chicago grain prices lower, but losses were limited by concerns that
conditions may change dramatically in the five months before the crops are in the bin. July
weather conditions are critical for U.S. crops. A cold, rainy and snowy spring has farmers weeks
behind in sowing corn.
"Overall, we're looking at a monster of a crop going in. But it doesn't mean anything right now
because we don't know what the weather is going to be," said Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain.
If the forecasts are realized, however, they could help quell a succession of food-price spikes and
supply fears triggered by extreme weather conditions, strong Chinese demand and an influx of
investor funds into commodities.
Corn prices fell 1 percent to close at $6.92 a bushel on Friday, double the price for much of 2010
but off a record above $8 last summer. Wheat fell 3 percent to close near its lowest price in a
year.
RECORD U.S. CORN CROP DESPITE LATE START
In its first projection of the fall harvest, USDA said the corn crop would be a record 14.14 billion
bushels, despite a late start to planting that will lower yields.
All the same, corn ending stocks for the 2013/14 marketing year would hit 2.004 billion bushels,
the largest supply in nine years and marginally larger than traders expected. It would nearly triple
the 759 million bushels, the smallest supply in 16 years, forecast for the Aug. 31 end of this
marketing year.
"The slow start to this year's planting and the likelihood that progress by mid-May will remain well
behind the 10-year average reduce prospects for yields," said USDA. It pegged yields at 158
bushels an acre, down 5.6 bushels, or 3 percent, from a projection made at its Outlook Forum in
February.
With the mammoth crop, 4.85 billion bushels of corn will be used to make ethanol, up from 4.6
billion bushels from the 2012 crop. Ethanol output could top 13.4 billion gallons from this year's
crop.
U.S. soybean production was projected at a record 3.390 billion bushels - enough to recapture
the title of world's largest soybean grower from Brazil - with 2013/14 end stocks more than
doubling to 265 million bushels from the 125 million estimated for this Aug 31. Traders on
average had expected stocks of 236 million bushels. Stocks would be the largest in seven years.
CROP PRODUCTION SURGES WORLDWIDE
Bigger wheat crops are projected in all of the world's major exporting nations, with a record 701.1
million tonnes expected, up 7 percent. Europe and the former Soviet states would see the largest
increases, said USDA. Ending stocks would rise by 3 percent.
Europe, the former Soviet states and China would reap larger corn crops, along with the record
U.S. crop, for a world record 965.9 million tonnes, up 13 percent from 2012/13. Even with record
consumption, stocks would reach a 13-year high of 154.6 million tonnes, USDA projected.
China was forecast to become the world's largest rice importer in 2013/14 as world production
rises 2 percent to a record 479.3 million tonnes, said USDA, and ending stocks of 107.8 million
tonnes would be the largest since 2001/02.
"China's annual (rice) consumption needs have overtaken production since 2012/13," said USDA,
forecasting imports of 3 million tonnes in the new marketing year.
Global oilseed production was projected for a record 491.3 million tonnes, up 4.7 percent due
mainly to a larger soybean crop. Soybeans, which account for roughly 60 percent of world
oilseeds, would be up by 6 percent. Soybean ending stocks would surge by 20 percent, to 75
million tonnes, USDA said.
The world's largest soybean importer, China was forecast to buy 69 million tonnes, up 10 million
tonnes from this marketing year and two-thirds of the world total. Chinese farmers are shifting
land to more profitable crops and growing fewer soybeans. "If realized, harvest area of 6.6 million
hectares would be down 28 percent in four years," said USDA.
U.S. CROP PLANTING SLOWED BY COLD SPRING
A cold, rainy, snowy spring has slowed fieldwork dramatically. At the start of this week, only 12
percent of the corn crop was planted, the smallest tally for early May in three decades. Soybean,
cotton and rice plantings also lagged. Dry weather was expected to allow planting to surge this
weekend.
The U.S. winter wheat crop was forecast at 1.49 billion bushels, down 10 percent from last year,
mostly due to freeze and drought damage in the central and southern Plains, the heart of the
crop. The decline was slightly more than traders expected.
Winter wheat, the lion's share of U.S. output, is projected to be 2.057 billion bushels this year.
Cotton growers saw a record yield of 887 lbs per acre on the 2012 crop that totaled 17.3 million
bales, USDA said in a final estimate of the crop. The upcoming crop was projected to fall to 14
million bales on smaller plantings.
USDA said there was a 12 percent margin of error for its winter wheat estimate, which was based
on spot checks of fields and a survey of 13,000 growers. Its May projection for corn production
has a 28 percent margin of error and soybeans have a 16 percent margin of error, it said.
(Reporting by Charles Abbott; Editing by Phil Berlowitz)
USA - Record corn harvest
16 May 2013
Corn planting is falling farther behind normal. As of May 5, 12% of corn acres
were planted compared to 69% a year ago and a 5-year average of 47% planted
by May 5.
USDA released their forecast of 2013 crop production and prices today. They are forecasting a
record 14.14 billion bushel corn harvest with an average farm price of $4.70/bushel.
Beef exports were down 3.1% in March and imports were down 3.0% compared to a year earlier.
Exports to Japan were up 70% in March, but beef shipments to Mexico and South Korea were
down and shipments to Russia were zero due to a dispute over ractopamine use. First quarter
beef exports were down a slight 0.2% while imports were up 1.4%. March beef exports equaled
9.25% of U.S. production. Beef imports equaled 10.62% of production.
During March, the U.S. imported 115,288 cattle from Canada and 110,624 cattle from Mexico.
Cattle imports were 15.9% fewer than a year ago.
Retail demand for choice beef was up slightly in March, but export demand for U.S. beef was
down. These opposing forces combined to produce a slightly lower demand for slaughter cattle.
Packer demand for fed cattle has been on a slow decline for 14 months.
The choice beef cutout value reached $200/cwt for the first time ever last week and continued to
climb. This morning, the choice boxed beef carcass cutout value was a record $205.55/cwt, up
$4.70 from the previous Friday and up $16.62 from a year ago. The select carcass cutout is at
$191.11/cwt, up 84 cents for the week. The choice-select price spread is more than $14/cwt, the
most since December.
Fed cattle prices were lower this week. Through Thursday, the 5-area average price for slaughter
steers sold on a live weight basis was $126.22/cwt, down $2.80 from last week, but up $5.34/cwt
from the same week last year. Steer prices on a dressed basis averaged $202.74/cwt this week,
down $3.81 from a week ago, but up $10.61 from a year ago.
This week's cattle slaughter totaled 631,000 head, up 1.1% from last week, but down 1.6% from a
year ago. The average steer dressed weight for the week ending on April 27 was 840 pounds,
down 4 pounds from the week before, but up 12 pounds from a year ago. This was the 68th
consecutive week with average steer weight above the year-earlier level.
Oklahoma City feeder cattle prices were $2 to $4 lower this week with prices for medium and
large frame #1 steers: 450-500# $164, 500-550# $149-$169, 550-600# $136-$152.50, 600-650#
$131-$152.75, 650-700# $128-$147, 700-750# $131.75-$143.50, 750-800# $128-$137, 800900# $119.50-$129, and 900-1000# $114.75-$123/cwt.
The June live cattle futures contract closed at $120.45/cwt today, down $1.37 from last week's
close. The August fed cattle contract lost $1.20 from last Friday to settle at $120.77/cwt. October
fed cattle settled at $123.92/cwt.
USA - Wheat prices fall again
16 May 2013
-U.S. wheat futures fall on positioning before USDA crop forecasts
--Some traders are booking profits after Thursday's price jump
--The USDA is seen predicting tighter domestic wheat supplies but greater world
supplies
CHICAGO--U.S. wheat futures are lower Friday morning, pressured by
positioning ahead of a government crop report.
In electronic trading, Chicago Board of Trade futures for July delivery are down 5
3/4 cents or 0.8% at $7.17 3/4 a bushel. Kansas City Board of Trade July wheat
is down 4 1/4 cents or 0.5% at $7.75 a bushel. MGEX July wheat is down 5 3/4
cents or 0.7% at $8.19 3/4 a bushel.
Wheat futures are easing after a price jump Thursday, as some traders are
selling futures to book profits. The volatile trading comes as market participants
position themselves for the U.S. Department of Agriculture's update of its
estimates for the supply and demand of agricultural commodities at noon EDT
(1600 GMT). Its forecasts for this year's crops will be the agency's first based
partly on spring surveys.
The USDA report is expected to predict tighter domestic wheat supplies in the
coming year, but a jump in world supplies.
Analysts on average expect the USDA to forecast that wheat stockpiles at the
end of the 2013-14 marketing year--on May 31, 2014--will total 627 million
bushels, down from an expected 731 million bushels at the end of the current
marketing year, according to the average analyst forecast in a Dow Jones
Newswires survey.
Analysts on average predicted the USDA will estimate domestic wheat output
this year at 2.059 billion bushels, down 9% from last year.
But world wheat supplies are expected to rise as production could rebound in
countries that suffered dry weather last year. Analysts on average predicted the
USDA's forecast for world wheat stocks at the end of the current marketing year
will be 181.5 million metric tons, while stocks at the end of the 2013-14 year will
be 186.4 million tons.
Wheat traders continue to monitor weather conditions in the southern Plains...
Desmet Ballestra Has Successfully Installed CTI System at
United States Edible Oil Refinery
PR Web -- LOS ANGELES, CA -- May 10, 2013 -- Cavitation Technologies, Inc. (CTI)
(OTCBB: CVAT; Berlin & Stuttgart: WTC) announced today that the Desmet Ballestra
Group, CTI’s strategic partner since 2010 and the licensee of the company’s vegetable oil
refining technology, has successfully completed another installation of CTI’s Nano
Neutralization® system at an edible oil refinery in Volga, South Dakota. The purchased
system, capable of processing 500 tons of soybean oil daily, will aid the refinery’s
production of refined, bleached, and deodorized soybean oil.
Roman Gordon, CTO, commented, "This installation marks a significant milestone for
our company and our technology. The results from this particular installation have been
profound. Our system has demonstrated a 90% reduction of citric acid and 50% reduction
of caustic, all of which have led to improved efficiency and operations for edible oil
processing.” CTI received the initial down payment for the system in the second quarter
of the current fiscal year and collected additional revenue from the sales agreement at the
end of the fiscal third quarter, March 31, 2013.
MSU College of Agriculture Has New Wheat Variety Available for
Licensing
Targeted News Service -- BOZEMAN, MT -- May 13, 2013 -- Montana State University
researchers have produced a new line of hard white winter wheat that shows potential to
produce as well as one of the most popular red winter wheat varieties currently grown in
Montana.
The new hard white winter wheat variety, a line currently identified as MTW08168, is
similar to the widely popular Montana variety of Yellowstone red winter wheat in yield,
agronomic characteristics and resistance to prevalent races of stripe rust.
The new variety stands out from Yellowstone as having a hard white kernel versus the
hard red kernel of Yellowstone. MTW08168 also has a higher grain volume weight, with
about one half pound per bushel grain volume weight. It heads about two and a half days
later than Yellowstone and averages close to 2 inches taller than Yellowstone.
MSU is the major supplier of new wheat varieties for Montana growers with
approximately 2.5 million acres of MSU varieties grown in the state from 2010 to 2012,
according to the Montana Agricultural Statistics Service.
A report on the origin, breeding history and characteristics of MTW08168 compared to
other winter wheat lines is available as a PDF by clicking link at the right side of this
page or by contacting the MSU Technology Transfer Office. The MSU Agricultural
Experiment Station anticipates 200 bushels of foundation seed from current seed
production. Trial lines are available for observation.
To be considered for licensing the MTW08168 variety, please submit a proposal by June
15 that includes:
1. The terms on the sheet available by clicking link at right, or from the MSU Technology
Transfer Office.
2. A plan for segregating storage and processing of MTW08168 from other varieties.
Naming of the new variety may be subject to the terms of its licensing.
Currently, MSU has 213 licenses from technologies developed by faculty and
researchers. Of those, 85 licenses are with Montana companies.
Profit booking crushes castor
Rajkot, May 15:
Castor futures declined on Wednesday on the back of profit booking by traders.
However, spot castor inched up on slow arrivals and export demand.
Futures
On the Rajkot Commodity Exchange (RCX) castor June contract declined Rs 33 to Rs
3,570 a quintal. RCX spot castor gained Rs 15 to Rs 3,410.
On the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange June contract was down Rs 38 to
Rs 3,445 with an open interest of 1,57,380 lots.
Similarly, NCDEX castor July moved up by Rs 41 to Rs 3,550 with an open interest of
48680 lots.
Arrivals
About 55,000-60,000 bags of castor arrived in Gujarat and price stood at Rs 672-680 for
20 kg.
In Saurashtra region about 4,700-4,800 bags arrived and the price was Rs 655-680.
Castor oil was up Rs 5 to Rs 705 for 10 kg.
Demand
A castor broker said that since the last 4-5 days castor price gained on export demand.
Futures prices also were on the uptrend for the past few days and hence on Wednesday
market players booked the profit. Demand and decreasing arrival support the spot castor
prices.
Turnover points to waning interest in
pepper
Kochi, May 15:
Pepper prices continued to decline on Wednesday on bearish sentiments as the contract is
nearing maturity.
The market continued to be volatile but activities were limited.
The net open interest showed a decline. But turnover showed a slight increase giving the
impression that the people are losing interest, trade sources said.
Buyers were quoting lower rates. Those who wanted to get out of the market were
liquidating.
Those looking for farther out positions were finding it difficult to get the rates after the
maturity of the May contract (on 20th of this month), as the June/July/Aug contracts have
not been listed on the exchange.
May contract on the NCDEX decreased by Rs 360 to Rs 35,805 a quintal.
Total turnover moved up by 2 tonnes to 22 tonnes.
Total open interest dropped by 23 tonnes to 166 tonnes.
Spot prices fell in tandem with the futures market and on limited activities by Rs 100 to
Rs 34,000 (ungarbled) and Rs 35,500 (garbled) a quintal.
Indian parity in the international market was at around $6,700-6,725 a tonne (c&f) for
May and June shipments, market said.
Rising rabi arrivals seen pounding moong
Indore, May 15:
Moong is likely to come under pressure on huge arrivals of rabi crop despite demand
improving. Arrival of new moong is set to pick up in local mandis in the next few days,
said a trader. Currently local mandis are witnessing arrival of about 250-300 bags daily
from parts of Madhya Pradesh.
Moong also gained Rs 50 on improved demand with moong (best quality) being quoted at
Rs 5,400-50 while moong (medium) ruled at Rs 4,700-4,800. Moong had also been
witnessing a sluggish trend on weak demand and rise in arrival of summer moong in local
mandis. Two weeks ago, moong (bold) had been ruled at Rs 5,500-5,700 a quintal, while
moong (medium) quoted at Rs 5,000-5,300 a quintal.
Moong dal (medium) ruled at Rs 6,600-6,700, moong (bold) at Rs 6,800-6,900, while
moong mongar ruled at Rs 7,200-7,400.
Pulses and pulse seeds saw renewed buying support and demand on Wednesday. Tur
prices gained Rs 50 with tur (Maharashtra) rising to Rs 4,600 a quintal on revival of fresh
demand. Similarly, tur (Madhya Pradsesh) also rose to Rs 4,000-4,200 (up Rs 100 from
last week) on renewed demand.
Notwithstanding lower domestic crop output, tur prices had been seen ruling stable for
quiet sometime on poor demand and buying support in pulses from the millers. Added to
this, arrival of imported tur in mandis had also reined in its prices.
Tur dal remained stable with tur dall (full) being quoted at Rs 6,300-6,400 , tur dal (sawa
no.) at Rs 5,800-5,900, while tur marka ruled at Rs 7,000. Urad and its dal ruled stable on
slack demand with urad (bold) at Rs 3,450-3,500, while urad (medium) ruled at Rs 3,0003,200. Urad dal (medium) was quoted at Rs 3,900-4,000, urad dal (bold) at Rs 4,5004,600, while urad mongar ruled at Rs 5,600-5,700 a quintal respectively.
Poor demand continues in turmeric
Erode, May 15:
Turmeric sales are on the decline due to poor demand and no orders from North India.
“Though the arrival of turmeric was only 4,195 bags on Wednesday, the sale was below
45 per cent. This is due to the poor demand from North India. Upcountry traders have
also stopped purchase from other turmeric centres. But a few traders in Erode are still
buying one or two lorry loads of turmeric from Nizamabad at a lower price and after
polishing them again, keep the stock with them,” said R.K.V. Ravishankar, President,
Erode Turmeric Merchants Association.
On Wednesday, prices of finger and root varieties fell by Rs 200 a quintal at all four sales
centres in Erode. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association sales yard, the finger
variety was sold at Rs 4,019-6,999; the root variety Rs 4,009-6,009 a quintal.
Salem Hybrid Crop: The finger variety was sold at Rs 6,169-7,879; the root variety Rs
5,889-6,289. Of the 885 bags that arrived, 25 per cent of the stocks was sold.
At the Regulated Market Committee, the finger variety fetched Rs 6,369-7,559; the root
variety Rs 5,339-6,516. All the 308 bags found takers.
At the Erode Cooperative Marketing Society, the finger variety was sold at Rs 5,6107,264; the root variety Rs 5,610-6,296. Of the 512 bags put up for sale, 459 got sold.
At the Gobichettipalayam Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Society, the finger variety
was sold at Rs 5,740-7,427; the root variety Rs 5,667-6,500. All the 164 bags were
traded.
Imported edible oils fall further
Mumbai, May 15:
Edible oil prices, especially imported plmolein and soyabean refined oil, extended loss
further by Rs 2 each and cotton refined oil dropped by Rs 3 for 10 kg on Wednesday
tracking weak local demand and bearish Malaysian palm oil futures. Groundnut, rapeseed
and sunflower oil ruled unchanged in line with steady to weak trend in producing centres.
Sources said that slack middle month demand kept volumes thin and isolated in Mumbai
market. Stockists preferred to fulfil old commitments. About 200-250 tonnes of
palmolein were traded in resale at Rs 504-505 for ready delivery. Lower arrivals of
soyabean and rapeseed in producing centres kept sentiment positive. In Indore soyabean
prices were Rs 4,050-60 ex-mandi and Rs 4,100-20 plant delivery. Mustard seed arrivals
were 2.70 lakh bags national level and the prices were Rs 3,100-3,610.
Towatds the day’s close, Liberty was quoting palmolein at Rs 510-514, super palmolein
Rs 545 and sunflower refined oil Rs 780. Ruchi was quoting palmolein at Rs 514 for
Patalganga and Rs 508 for JNPT, soyabean refined oil Rs 660 and sunflower refined oil
at Rs 755. Allana’s rates for palmolein were Rs 545. In Saurashtra – Rajkot, groundnut
oil dropped by Rs 10 to Rs 1,770 for telia tin and Rs 1,150 (Rs 1,160) for loose (10 kg).
Malaysian BMD crude palm oil’s June contracts settled at MYR 2,295 (MYR 2,292),
July at MYR 2,297 (MYR 2,302) and August at MYR 2,297 (MYR 2,301) a tonne.
The Bombay Commodity Exchange spot rates (Rs/10 kg): groundnut oil 1,140
(1,140), soya refined oil 660 (662), sunflower exp. ref. 675 (675), sunflower ref. 755
(760), rapeseed ref. oil 690 (690), rapeseed expeller ref. 660 (660) cottonseed ref. oil 645
(648) and palmolein 505 (507).
Vikram Global Commodities, Chennai quoted Malaysian super palmolein at Rs 553
ex-Chennai.
Soyameal holds key to dip in poultry feed
Karnal, May 15:
If soyameal drops from the current levels, concentrate feed products may fall further,
according to trade experts.
Lower input cost pulled concentrate feed products down by Rs 20 for a 50-kg bag on
Wednesday.
Continuous falls in cost of production dragged concentrate feed prices, said Aditya
Mishra, a commodity expert. The situation was anticipated in the market and it may rule
around current levels before falling further in coming days, he said.
After witnessing some recovery last weekend, soyameal remained unchanged and sold at
Rs 36,140 a tonne.
Bajra dropped by Rs 15 to Rs 1,470 a quintal, DCP was at 35 a kg, after witnessing a
continuous fall, MBM improved by Rs 2 and quoted at Rs 40 a kg while maize dropped
by Rs 30 and quoted at Rs 1,320 a quintal.
Mustard de-oiled cake went up by Rs 100 and sold at Rs 14,700 a tonne, DRB sold at Rs
9,000 a tonne while rice bran oil ruled at 49 a kg, Rs 2 down from previous levels.
Feed products
After ruling flat for more than a month, concentrate feed products moved down, while
after witnessing a fall last weekend, layer feed products managed to maintain their
previous levels.
Prices of all concentrate feed products dropped by Rs 20 for a 50-kg bag. Layer
concentrate 25 per cent was sold at Rs 1,445 while layer concentrate 35 per cent went for
Rs 1,130. Broiler concentrate quoted at Rs 1,980 while Broiler Starter Mash was at Rs
1,500. Pre-lay mash sold at Rs 1,020, while layer grower mash quoted at Rs 960.
Poultry Products
Meanwhile, a mixed trend was seen in poultry products. Broiler improved on buying
interest while egg dropped down on reduced offtake on Wednesday.
Egg went down by 15 paise and sold at Rs 2.20. Broiler improved by Rs 15 and quoted at
Rs 82-83 a kg, while chick went for Rs 16-18, remained unchanged.
India begins exporting basmati & nonbasmati blend to Iran
KOLKATA/NEW DELHI: India has started exporting a blend of basmati and nonbasmati rice to Iran. The Asian nation, which is still facing Western sanctions, is lifting
aromatic non-basmati rice and pusa-1121 basmati variety from India and blending the
two for its domestic market. Iranian importers have been forced to take this route as their
government has said the price of imported rice should not exceed $1,150 per tonne.
The non-basmati variety, which Iran is buying from India, costs around $750 per tonne,
while the basmati variety costs around $1,600 per tonne. "The blending is being done in
India under the supervision of Iranian buyers' representatives. Iran's new strategy has
cheered non-basmati farmers and sales of non-basmati seeds have doubled in Haryana,
Punjab and Uttar Pradesh regions," said Vijay Setia, partner of Chamanlal Setia Exports,
a 300-crore rice exporting firm.
The non-basmati variety being preferred by Iranians have an aroma and the grains are
6.6-6.8-mm long. In the local market, the variety is referred to as PR114 or PR14.
MP Jindal, president of All India Rice Exporters Association, denied such a move
although most of the exporters and traders that ET spoke to confirmed the new trend.
"The PR grain is small and the basmati grain is big. The question of mixing does not arise
at all," he said, adding that some small-time exporters might be doing the blending.
In recent times, India's direct rice exports to Iran have bounced back, thanks to shippers
being paid upfront in rupees from a huge pool of oil money owed to Iran by Indian
refiners. This has helped them to do business in a much easier way than doing business in
any other currency. Iran generally imports 3.2 million tonnes of rice from India.
Traders acknowledged that the blending is happening over the past few months.
"Exporters are blending 10-30% of the PR variety with Pusa 1121 and buyers know it
well. So it is a transparent trade mechanism," said Anil Kumar Mittal, chairman and
managing director, KRBLBSE 5.38 %, which sells premium basmati under the India
Gate brand. "Iranian buyers are not interested to pay $1,600 a tonne for basmati rice this
year. Prices have almost doubled," said Mittal.
Currently, parboiled 1121 rice is being quoted at $1,400 a tonne, 1121 white rice at
$1,600 a tonne, Pusa brown variety at $1,150-1,175 a tonne. The traditional basmati
brown rice costs $1,300 a tonne and the traditional white basmati rice is fetching $1,5001,700 a tonne.
A section of the traders feels that the blending is eroding the image of pure basmati rice
in the world market. "It is a big concern that certain players are blending some inferior
quality rice with 1121 so that they can offer a competitive price to Iranian buyers. This is
not a good practice and is likely to affect basmati's reputation in the world market," said
Anil Monga, managing director, Emmsons International.
US corn plantings to disappoint, ag giants say
Tractor-maker Deere & Co and Mosaic, the fertilizer giant, joined commentators cutting
forecasts for US corn plantings this year after wet weather which has left sowings
running at their slowest pace on record.
Mosaic chief executive Jim Prokopanko told investors that while elevated return
prospects gave farmers a strong incentive to maximise corn area, US plantings may be
limited to some 95m-96m acres after the rain delayed which left plantings only 28%
complete as of Sunday.
Farmers would typically have planted 65% of their crop by then.
Separately on Wednesday, Deere & Co, the maker of John Deere farm equipment, cut its
estimate for corn sowings to 96.0m acres, from 98.0m acres.
"Most of the planting in the Corn Belt, on corn, already would have taken place in a more
normal year, by May 5 or so," Tony Huegel, Deere director of investor relations, said.
Last week, nitrogen fertilizer group CF Industries also downgraded its forecast to 96m
acres.
USDA thinking
The figures are below the 97.3m acres which the US Department of Agriculture is
factoring in, the highest area since the 1930s, and an estimate based on a farmer survey in
March.
While the USDA has acknowledged the threat of delayed sowings, it has altered only its
yield forecast thus far, and is deemed by most analysts unlikely to revise lower its area
estimate until after a survey in June of actual plantings.
"Planting progress by mid-May is expected to remain well below the 10-year average,
supporting this month's lower yield projection," USDA analysts said on Wednesday.
However, even at Mosaic's lowest acreage estimate, area would appear more than
adequate to allow a significant rebuild in supplies, without a further threat to yield.
At 95.0m acres, the US would produce about 330m bushels less than officials currently
believe, factoring in current USDA assumptions on yield and on area harvested for silage
or abandoned.
Switch to soybeans?
Deere also trimmed its estimates for soybean sowings, by 200,000 acres.
However, at 77.8m acres, it was above the USDA estimate of 77.1m acres, signalling the
potential for farmers to switch to the oilseed, which can be later seeded.
The group trimmed its forecast for wheat plantings by 500,000 acres to 56.5m acres, in
line with the USDA estimate, while keeping its estimate for cotton area at 10.0m acres,
also in line with the USDA figure.
The company also reduced its forecasts for yields for major crops, closer to USDA levels,
and its estimate of US net farm cash income this year, by $1.5bn to $122.7bn.
The data came as Deere unveiled record quarterly earnings, but disappointed investors
with a cautious outlook, sending its shares some 5% lower.
Oil gains $1 on U.S. equity rally
Brent crude oil prices rose by more than $1 on Wednesday, reversing early losses to settle
above $103 a barrel and increasing its premium over U.S. crude to the largest in 13
sessions.
The gain came as U.S. equity markets rallied to record highs and signs of deadlock on
nuclear talks with Iran lent support to the global oil benchmark.
Data showing the euro zone was in its longest recession ever and an increase in U.S.
refined products inventories had sparked an early selloff.
U.S. stocks edged up on Wednesday, with the Dow and S&P 500 hitting new all-time
highs as the market's recent upward momentum persisted, but a steep decline in Apple
AAPL.O kept gains in check.
U.S. crude inventories fell last week, but gasoline and distillate stocks rose along with
refinery rates, the EIA data showed. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, crude storage hub
rose 575,000 barrels to 49.72 million barrels.
"We got down to a level about halfway between our recent peaks and troughs, and then
selling just stopped. Perhaps for all intents and purposes the market had already priced
the report in," said Stephen Schork, the editor of The Schork Report in Villanova,
Pennsylvania.
News that the United Nations' nuclear agency's talks with Iran over its suspected atomic
bomb research had stalled lent further support to Brent prices.
Brent crude rose $1.08 to settle at $103.68 a barrel after falling to $101.20 earlier in the
day.
U.S. oil edged up 9 cents to settle at $94.30 a barrel after losing more than $2 following
the release of the EIA data.
The spread between two widened to settle at $9.38, the highest in 13 sessions.
Despite the build in gasoline stocks, U.S. RBOB gasoline prices rose 3 cents.
Brent crude is down nearly 13 percent from its 2013 peak on weaker demand in China
and a sluggish recovery in the U.S. economy, the world's two biggest oil consumers.
The euro zone's economy contracted for the sixth straight quarter at the start of the year,
marking its longest recession since records began in 1995.
The Brent June contract traded on the Intercontinental Exchange expires Thursday.
Oil slips towards $102 as euro zone
recession deepens
Oil slipped towards $102 a barrel on Wednesday after data showed the euro zone's
recession extended to the longest on record, while a stronger U.S. dollar and ample
supplies put additional pressure on on the price.
Brent crude is down 14 percent from its 2013 peak on the back of weaker demand in
China and a sluggish recovery in the U.S. economy.
Brent crude slipped 42 cents to $102.18 a barrel by 1200 GMT. U.S. oil fell $1.14 to
$93.07, declining for a fifth straight day.
The euro zone's economy contracted for the sixth straight quarter at the start of the year,
marking its longest recession since records began in 1995.
Germany, the region's largest economy, narrowly dodged falling into recession thanks to
a rise in consumption.
"The euro zone contraction is not a huge surprise. The market already priced in the weak
results, but Germany, which accounts for a third of the euro zone GDP, came in weaker
than expected," Harry Tchilingurian, head of commodity market strategy at BNP Paribas,
said.
Oil has also faced pressure in the past few sessions from a stronger U.S. dollar, which
makes commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. [USD/}
"In the absence of a catalyst to push prices higher, the stronger dollar, particularly after
the weak results from the euro zone, weighs on oil," Tchilingurian said.
Traders were waiting to see the ramifications from news on Tuesday that European
authorities raided offices of oil majors Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Statoil, investigating
suspected manipulation of oil prices in the physical market.
OVERSUPPLY
The market outlook was weakened after the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a
report that rising U.S. shale oil production will help to meet most of the world's new
demand in the next five years, with OPEC spare capacity set to rise.
In the short term, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that crude inventories
rose by 1.1 million barrels in the week to May 10, far higher than forecast.
Investors await data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information
Administration later in the day to gauge the country's demand outlook.
Iran faced fresh international pressure over its nuclear programme on Wednesday in two
separate meetings in Vienna and Istanbul, but no breakthrough was expected.
"The world is to remain well supplied in the medium term ... At the same time, price
volatility is still set to come from macro events or geopolitics, where any price spike
would be temporary given the current comfortable supply cushion," VTB Capital analyst
Andrey Kryuchenkov said.
DJ UPDATE: U.S. Wheat Falls on Technical Selling, Adequate Supply
--U.S. wheat futures fall on technical selling, expectations for adequate supplies
--Strong dollar also pressures wheat
--Corn falls on dry weather boosting planting progress; soybeans fall on monthly
processing data
(Adds analyst quotes and details throughout.)
CHICAGO--U.S. wheat futures stayed lower as trading ended Wednesday, pressured by
technical selling and expectations for wheat supplies to be adequate.
Chicago Board of Trade July wheat futures settled down 17 cents, or 2.4%, at $6.93 3/4 a
bushel, a two-week closing low for the contract.
KCBT July wheat fell 15 1/4 cents, or 2.0%, to $7.51 3/4 a bushel. MGEX July wheat fell
7 1/2 cents, or 0.9%, to $8.03 3/4 a bushel.
Freeze damage and persistent drought conditions have threatened winter wheat crops in
the southern Plains this spring, but many market participants still expect supplies to be
adequate. The U.S. Department of Agriculture last week forecast greater-than-expected
domestic wheat stockpiles about one year from now, at the end of the 2013-14 crop year.
Meanwhile, world wheat production is expected to rebound this year due to increases in
areas including the former Soviet Union.
Speculative market participants on Wednesday appeared to be selling futures both to exit
earlier bullish bets on prices and to place new bearish bets, analysts said.
"We're getting close enough to harvest that the trade is convinced that we're going to
have adequate supplies domestically and globally," said Arlan Suderman, a senior market
analyst with Water Street Solutions in Wichita, Kan. "I think it's just seasonality."
U.S. farmers will begin harvesting their winter wheat crops around early June.
Selling in wheat futures picked up Wednesday when CBOT July wheat fell below its
trading range of recent days, which technical traders took as a signal that further declines
were likely.
Wheat also was pressured by a stronger dollar, which makes U.S. wheat exports more
expensive for foreign buyers. Wheat is more susceptible than corn or soybeans to
pressure from a strong dollar because U.S. wheat exports face greater competition from
other large wheat-exporting countries.
Despite the decline in wheat, this week's hot weather in the Plains "is the last thing that
we need for the hard red winter wheat crop," Mr. Suderman said. The heat could push the
crop closer to maturity before it has had time to fully develop its grain, he said.
Corn futures fell Wednesday on expectations for this week's warmer, drier weather to
allow for a substantial pickup in corn planting in the Midwest, easing worries about
planting delays for the new crop.
Soybeans fell on lower-than-expected data on the amount of soybeans "crushed," or
processed, in April in the U.S. Both corn and soybeans also fell as commodity markets
generally declined Wednesday.
July corn fell 1 3/4 cents, or 0.3%, to $6.50 3/4 a bushel.
July soybeans fell 2 cents, or 0.1%, to $14.12 3/4 a bushel.
DJ USDA Says 171,000 Tons of Soybeans Sold to China in 2013-14
WASHINGTON--Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture
export sales of 171,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the
2013/2014 marketing year, the USDA said Wednesday.
The 2013/2014 marketing year for soybeans will begin Sept. 1.
U.S. exporters are required to report to the USDA any export sales activity of 100,000
metric tons or more of one commodity made in one day, or quantities totaling 200,000
tons or more, in any reporting period to one destination, by 3:00 p.m. EDT (1900 GMT)
the next business day, according to the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service. Any export
sales under these quantities must be reported on a weekly basis.
DJ U.S. Grain, Soy Ease on Midwest Planting Potential
CHICAGO--U.S. grain and soybean futures ended the overnight electronic session lower
Wednesday, as traders factor in a rapid increase in farmer corn and soybean plantings
across the Midwest this week.
Farmers are rushing to seed 2013 corn crops to beat potential rains headed across the
Farm Belt by the weekend. The pickup in plantings ease some concerns about reduced
crop yield potential, as well as the debate about some farmers shifting corn acreage to
soybeans due to prior planting delays.
Wheat futures are lower in unison with corn, drawing additional weakness from forecasts
for improved crop weather for developing crops in the Black Sea region.
A stronger U.S. dollar versus other world currencies also is raising concerns about
investors' ongoing pullback from commodities, analysts said.
Chicago Board of Trade July corn was down 4 3/4 cents, or 0.7% at $6.47 3/4 a bushel,
July wheat was down 5 1/2 cents, or 0.8% at $7.05 1/4, and July soybeans were down 7
1/4 cents, or 0.5% at $14.07 1/2.
DJ Soybean Futures Mixed; Traders Unwind Prior Bets
-- Profit taking gains some momentum
-- Domestic soybean supplies remain tight
-- 171,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to China
CHICAGO--U.S. soybean futures are trading mixed Wednesday, as traders continue to
take profits on prior bets.
Chicago Board of Trade soybeans for July delivery, the most actively traded contract,
dropped 1 1/4 cents, or 0.09%, to $14.13 1/2. November soybeans rose 3 cents, or 0.2%,
to $12.17.
"Old crop" soybeans--those harvested last fall--remain in tight supply, but the market is
anticipating rising production ahead.
"We are seeing some profit taking gaining some momentum for the second consecutive
day," said Jerry Gidel, an analyst with advisory firm Rice Dairy in Chicago. "Without
any fresh news to bring quick satisfaction to bullish traders, buyers have stepped to the
sidelines."
Record cash-basis levels--the gap between cash prices for physical soybeans and futures-for this time of year illustrate the tightness of available soybean stockpiles.
Cash merchants in Burlington, Iowa, raised their soybean basis bids 18 cents a bushel to
$1.18 above July CBOT soybeans for spot delivery and raised their basis bids 24 cents a
bushel for deliveries in June to 99 cents above July soybeans.
Traders are still concerned that planting delays for corn will entice farmers who are
unable to plant corn to switch some acres to soybeans, which have a later growing
season. That could further expand production. U.S. forecasters already are projecting a
record soybean crop this fall.
"New crop" futures, or contracts that represent crops that will be harvested in the fall,
continue to trade at significant discounts to nearby contracts due to the expectations for a
big soybean crop this year.
However, the secondary impact of planting delays will put more pressure on stockpiles
from last year's harvest, Mr. Gidel said. The longer it takes to get the crop planted, fall
harvests will be delayed and end users, such as soybean processors, will have to rely on
tight old crop supplies longer than expected, Mr. Gidel added.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced Wednesday private exporters reported
the sale of 171,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2013-14
marketing year that begins Sept. 1.
Traders will also closely watch April soybean crush data from the National Oilseed
Processors Association scheduled for release at noon EDT. Soybean crush rates for April
are expected to drop from the previous month to about 125.2 million bushels on seasonal
processing trends, according to analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.
The month-over-month decrease in the crush reflects one less day of crushing and
seasonal downtime attributed to the limited availability of physical soybean supplies for
crushing.
DJ Planting Of Ontario's Canola Crop 30% Done – Report
WINNIPEG--Warm and dry weather conditions allowed farmers in Ontario to make good
seeding progress during the week ended May 8, according to the Ontario Ministry of
Agriculture's crop report for that week.
Planting of the canola crop in the province was 30% complete in the southern regions and
well under way in the more northerly areas, the report said. Farmers in Ontario were
being cautioned to check canola fields for flea beetle infestations, which have become a
big problem.
Rye for forage was advancing rapidly, with early planted fields approaching flag leaf
stage. Meanwhile, winter wheat has entered the rapid growth stage with stem elongation
under way.
Temperatures have been ideal for cereal growth, the report said.
The planting of the soybean crop in Ontario has begun in most regions, the report said.
Soil conditions have been excellent in dryer areas. Some growers have finished planting
both corn and soybeans in some isolated areas.
Meanwhile, in other areas of Ontario, roughly 70% of the corn crop has been planted.
The crop left to plant is on heavier land that is just now reaching planting condition.
Alfalfa winterkill is particularly severe in the Ottawa Valley, the report said.
Pasture growth has progressed well with warm temperatures. Growth over the next
couple of weeks will be rapid, the report said.
DJ U.S. Wheat Futures Stay Lower on Technical Selling
CHICAGO--U.S. wheat futures stayed lower as trading ended Wednesday, pressured by
technical selling and expectations for ample world wheat supplies this year.
Selling in wheat futures picked up when the benchmark contract fell below its trading
range of recent days, which technical traders took as a signal that further declines were
likely.
Wheat was also pressured by a stronger dollar, which makes U.S. wheat exports more
expensive for foreign buyers.
Corn futures fell on expectations for warmer, drier weather this week to allow for a
substantial pickup in corn planting in the Midwest, easing worries about planting delays
for the new crop.
Soybeans fell on lower-than-expected data on the amount of soybeans "crushed," or
processed, in April in the U.S.
With prices yet to settle, Chicago Board of Trade July wheat was down 17 1/4 cents or
2.4% at $6.93 1/2 a bushel. July corn was down 2 cents or 0.3% at $6.50 1/2 a bushel.
July soybeans were down 3/4 cent or 0.1% at $14.14 a bushel.
DJ U.S. Wheat Settles Lower On Technical Selling, Adequate Supply
--U.S. wheat futures fall on technical selling, expectations for adequate supplies
--Strong dollar also pressures wheat
--Corn falls on dry weather boosting planting progress; soybeans fall on monthly
processing data
CHICAGO--U.S. wheat futures stayed lower as trading ended Wednesday, pressured by
technical selling and expectations for wheat supplies to be adequate.
Chicago Board of Trade July wheat futures settled down 17 cents or 2.4% at $6.93 3/4 a
bushel, a two-week closing low for the contract.
Selling in wheat futures picked up when the benchmark contract fell below its trading
range of recent days, which technical traders took as a signal that further declines were
likely.
Wheat was also pressured by a stronger dollar, which makes U.S. wheat exports more
expensive for foreign buyers.
Corn futures fell on expectations for warmer, drier weather this week to allow for a
substantial pickup in corn planting in the Midwest, easing worries about planting delays
for the new crop.
Soybeans fell on lower-than-expected data on the amount of soybeans "crushed," or
processed, in April in the U.S.
July corn fell 1 3/4 cents or 0.3% to $6.50 3/4 a bushel. July soybeans fell 2 cents or
0.1% to $14.12 3/4 a bushel.
DJ South Korea Buys Over 600,000 Tons Wheat, Corn in 10 Days
Sameer C. Mohindru - DJ - 2 hrs 12 mins ago
SINGAPORE--South Korea's Korea Corn Processing Industry Association has bought a
55,000 metric-ton cargo of Brazilian food-grade corn from Louis Dreyfus Commodities
at $304.53/ton, cost and freight basis, for arrival by Aug. 25, trading executives said
Thursday.
The cost of unloading part of the cargo at a second port is included in the price, the
executives said. A year ago, Kocopia had bought corn at $286.50/ton for arrival by Sep.
10, 2012.
South Korea's flour and animal feed millers have bought more than 600,000 tons of corn
and wheat in the last 10 days amid concerns that prices may rise due to delayed plantings
in the U.S., one of the world's largest exporters.
DJ e/cbot Grains/Oilseeds Futures Hourly Price Update
DJ - 1 hr 46 mins ago
Last
Change
High
Settlement
Corn (cents/bu.)
May 13
706.75
Jul 13
650.75
Sep 13
563.5
Soybeans (cents/bu.)
May 13
1524.5
Jul 13
1412.75
Aug 13
1342
Soybean Oil (cents/lb.)
May13
49.26
Jul13
49.35
Aug13
49.13
Low
Previous
707.00
+0.25
722.25
703.00
649.75
-1.00
650.75
648.75
562.75
-0.75
563.50
561.75
1524.75
+0.25
1545.00
1514.00
1415.75
+3.00
1416.25
1408.25
1345.00
+3.00
1345.50
1338.00
49.27
+0.01
49.57
49.27
49.51
+0.16
49.53
49.17
49.31
+0.18
49.31
48.96
Soybean Meal ($/ton)
May13
461
Jul13
410.5
Aug13
387.9
Wheat (cents/bu.)
May 13
701.5
Jul 13
693.75
(CBOT) Sep 2013
702.25
460.10
-0.90
460.10
453.80
410.20
-0.30
410.60
408.80
388.40
+0.50
388.50
386.70
702.25
+0.75
706.50
700.75
694.50
+0.75
694.75
693.00
703.25
+1.00
703.25
701.75
DJ e/cbot Grains/Oilseeds Futures Hourly Price Update
DJ - 46 mins ago
Last
Change
High
Settlement
Corn (cents/bu.)
May 13
706.75
Jul 13
650.75
Sep 13
563.5
Soybeans (cents/bu.)
May 13
1524.5
Jul 13
1412.75
Aug 13
1342
Soybean Oil (cents/lb.)
May13
49.26
Jul13
49.35
Aug13
49.13
Soybean Meal ($/ton)
May13
461
Jul13
410.5
Aug13
387.9
Wheat (cents/bu.)
Low
Previous
707.00
+0.25
722.25
703.00
649.75
-1.00
650.75
648.75
563.00
-0.50
563.50
561.75
1524.75
+0.25
1545.00
1514.00
1415.50
+2.75
1416.25
1408.25
1344.00
+2.00
1345.50
1338.00
49.27
+0.01
49.57
49.27
49.52
+0.17
49.53
49.17
49.25
+0.12
49.31
48.96
460.10
-0.90
460.10
453.80
410.50
UNCH
410.60
408.80
388.10
+0.20
388.50
386.70
May 13
701.5
Jul 13
693.75
(CBOT) Sep 2013
702.25
702.25
+0.75
706.50
700.75
695.75
+2.00
695.75
693.00
704.50
+2.25
704.50
701.75
DJ Malaysian AM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - May 16
DJ - 11 mins ago
KUALA LUMPUR--The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market
at 0430 GMT on Thursday supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton except for crude palm oil and palm kernel
oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul--a Malaysian
measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm
Month
Offer
Change
May/Jun
805.00
+10.00
Jul/Aug/Sep
802.50
+10.00
Oct/Nov/Dec
790.00
+07.50
Jan/Feb/Mar
795.00
+05.00
oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Bid
Change
Traded
Unquoted
Unquoted
Unquoted
Unquoted
-
RBD palm olein,
Month
May/Jun
Jul/Aug/Sep
Oct/Nov/Dec
Jan/Feb/Mar
Bid
Unquoted
Unquoted
Unquoted
Unquoted
Change
-
Traded
-
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Month
Offer
Change
Bid
Jun
760.00
+05.00
Unquoted
Change
-
Traded
-
Palm fatty acid distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer
Change
Bid
Change
Jun
645.00
+10.00
Unquoted
-
Traded
-
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer
Change
Bid
Change
May
2,320
+20.00
Unquoted
-
Traded
-
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer
Change
Bid
Change
Jun
140.00
00.00
Unquoted
-
Traded
-
FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer
Change
815.00
+10.00
812.50
+10.00
800.00
+07.50
805.00
+05.00
($1 = MYR3.0022)
DJ U.S. Southern Plains HRW Wheat Weather - May 16
DJ - 1 min ago
USA CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUMMARY- Dry conditions or a few light showers across the west with
showers
and thundershowers east, amounts 0.10-0.60 inch (3-15 mm) during the
past 24
hours. Temperatures 78-91F (26-33C).
FORECASTTODAY... Mostly dry conditions or a few light showers west with a few
showers
and thunderstorms east, amounts 0.10-0.75 inch (3-19 mm). Temperatures
72-88F
(22-31C).
TONIGHT...Dry conditions west with a few showers or thundershowers
central
and east. Temperatures 53-68F (12-20C).
TOMORROW... Mostly dry conditions or a few light showers west with a
few
showers and thunderstorms east, amounts 0.10-0.75 inch (3-19 mm).
Temperatures
79-88F (26-31C).
OUTLOOK... Mostly dry or a few light showers Saturday, mostly dry or
a few
light showers or a thundershower Sunday, scattered showers and
thundershowers
east and mostly dry west Monday. Temperatures mostly above normal
Saturday and
Sunday, near to above normal Monday.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHEAT PROSPECTS...
Above to well above normal temperatures and limited rainfall across
the dry
western winter wheat belt will put further stress on the developing
crop during
the next 7 days. More favorable conditions across the east where more
adequate
soil moisture conditions exist but episodes of hot, dry weather will
deplete
soil moisture. There is also concern regarding damage to the crop from
numerous
freezes during the spring. The late development may have mitigated some
of the
freeze effects across Kansas. This also means that the need for
rainfall to
support the crop remains high since is has yet to go through the
critical
heading and filling stage where moisture needs are the highest.
DJ U.S. Northern Plains Spring Wheat Weather - May 16
DJ - 1 min ago
USA NORTHERN PLAINS
SUMMARY- Mostly dry conditions or a few light showers across the south
during
the past 24 hours. Temperatures 74-82F (23-28C).
FORECASTTODAY... Mostly dry or a few light showers. Temperatures 75-80F (2427C).
TONIGHT...Scattered showers. Temperatures 48-57F (9-14C).
TOMORROW... Scattered light showers west with a few showers and
thundershowers east. Temperatures 73-91F (23-33C) from northwest to
southeast.
OUTLOOK... Mostly dry or a few light showers west with light rain
east
Saturday, light rain and showers Sunday, rain east with showers west
Monday.
Temperatures near normal northwest and above normal southeast Saturday,
near to
above normal east and near to below normal west Sunday, near to below
normal
Monday.
NORTHERN PLAINS WHEAT PROSPECTS...
Snow cover during the spring and periods of cold temperatures
delayed the
start of spring field work and any early planting. Conditions are
currently
better for planting but late week and weekend rains may bring more
planting
delays.
DJ Argentina Winter Wheat Weather - May 16
DJ - 1 min ago
CORDOBA, SANTA FE, NORTHERN BUENOS AIRES
SUMMARY- Dry most locales yesterday, save for a few isolated showers.
Temperatures 66-78F (19-26C).
FORECASTTODAY...Widely scattered showers in the north, 0.10-0.25 inch (3-6
mm). Dry
elsewhere. Temperatures 55-65F (13-18C).
TONIGHT...Dry overnight. Temperatures 34-42F (1-6C).
TOMORROW...Mainly dry in the region. Temperatures 53-59F (12-15C).
OUTLOOK...Mostly dry Friday, widely scattered showers Saturday and
Sunday.
Temperatures gradually trending a bit milder.
LA PAMPA AND SOUTHERN BUENOS AIRES
SUMMARY- A few passing light showers noted yesterday, however most
areas were
dry. Temperatures 57-69F (14-21C).
FORECASTTODAY...Mostly dry south, a few spotty showers in the north.
Temperatures
46-58F (8-14C).
TONIGHT...Mainly dry with patchy frost. Temperatures 31-41F (-1 to
5C).
TOMORROW...Mostly dry in the region. Temperatures 52-57F (11-14C).
OUTLOOK...Generally dry weather expected Friday through Sunday.
Temperatures
trend a little milder.
ARGENTINA WHEAT PROSPECTS...
Wheat planting will begin to get underway early in May. Wet
conditions due to
recent rains may delay the early planting effort. However, it should be
dry
during this week.
DJ Argentina Corn Weather - May 16
DJ - 1 min ago
CORDOBA, SANTA FE, NORTHERN BUENOS AIRES
SUMMARY- Dry most locales yesterday, save for a few isolated showers.
Temperatures 66-78F (19-26C).
FORECASTTODAY...Widely scattered showers in the north, 0.10-0.25 inch (3-6
mm). Dry
elsewhere. Temperatures 55-65F (13-18C).
TONIGHT...Dry overnight. Temperatures 34-42F (1-6C).
TOMORROW...Mainly dry in the region. Temperatures 53-59F (12-15C).
OUTLOOK...Mostly dry Friday, widely scattered showers Saturday and
Sunday.
Temperatures gradually trending a bit milder.
LA PAMPA AND SOUTHERN BUENOS AIRES
SUMMARY- A few passing light showers noted yesterday, however most
areas were
dry. Temperatures 57-69F (14-21C).
FORECASTTODAY...Mostly dry south, a few spotty showers in the north.
Temperatures
46-58F (8-14C).
TONIGHT...Mainly dry with patchy frost. Temperatures 31-41F (-1 to
5C).
TOMORROW...Mostly dry in the region. Temperatures 52-57F (11-14C).
OUTLOOK...Generally dry weather expected Friday through Sunday.
Temperatures
trend a little milder.
ARGENTINA CORN PROSPECTS...
Favorable harvest conditions continue.
Wheat falls 2 percent on firm dollar,
sluggish exports
CHICAGO: Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 2.4 percent to a two-week
low on Wednesday in reaction to technical selling, a stronger US dollar and lackluster
exports of US grain, traders said.
Soybeans fell on chart-based selling and monthly data showing a slower-than-expected
US soybean crushing pace.
Corn was pulled down by soy and wheat in thin trading, along with favourable US
planting weather, but the lead July contract was underpinned by strong cash markets.
At the CBOT, benchmark July wheat settled down 17 cents at $6.93-3/4 per bushel, with
sales accelerating as the contract fell below $7.
July soybeans ended down 2 cents at $14.12-3/4 a bushel but pared losses after trading
low as $14.02-1/4. July corn settled down 1-3/4 cents at $6.50-3/4 a bushel.
Wheat came under pressure as the dollar rose to a six-week high versus the euro on
evidence that Europe was stuck in recession. A stronger dollar makes US wheat less
competitive on the world market.
"US soft red winter wheat remains fairly competitive, but US exports have been beaten
down due to a pickup in shipments from India, and also Southeast Asian millers seeking
Australian wheat," said Terry Reilly, analyst with Futures International in Chicago.
"Japan has been holding off on buying feed wheat. That tells me that global import
demand is still kind of neutral," Reilly added.
Also bearish were forecasts showing a higher probability of rain in the Black Sea region.
"Dryness concerns for the former Soviet Union are easing somewhat, with better chances
of rain for both the Ukraine and Russia over the next two weeks," FCStone said in a daily
note.
Masoor prices up amid low business on
grain market
Masoor prices were sharply higher on the wholesale grain market on Wednesday amid
persistent dullness in the market, dealers said. Commenting on the sluggish business in
the commodity market, some experts said that traders were away from the normal
business after election.
They said that there are higher expectations that daily sales will increase in the coming
days after revival of confidence among the nation because they were facing high
uncertainties on both the political and economic fronts, particularly worst law and order
situation dragged the people into uncertainties, they are still not out of pragmatic
situation, so it appeared that they adopted wait-and-see mood to observe the
developments after polls, they said.
On the cereals side, Masoor Canada was higher by Rs 200 to Rs 7600-7700, Masoor Dall
Canada followed same pattern, gaining Rs 400 to Rs 9200, they said. On the grams side,
Bajra low type was higher by Rs 300 to Rs 3150 and the best type rose by Rs 200 to Rs
3750, other items maintained overnight levels due to balanced demand and supply
position, they said. On the rice and seeds sectors prices were unchanged in the process of
slow trading, they said.
Rotterdam vegetable oil prices
Wednesday's Rotterdam vegetable oil prices at 1600 GMT.
SOYOIL EU degummed: euro tonne fob ex-mill May 2013 835.00 June 2013/July 2013
830.00 +5.00 August 2013/October 2013 835.00 +10.00.
RAPEOIL Dutch/EU: euro tonne fob ex-mill June 2013/July 2013 unquoted August
2013/October 2013 860.00 +8.00 November 2013/January 2014 863.00 +8.00.
SUNOIL EU: dollars tonne ex-tank six ports option May 2013 1225.00 +10.00 June
2013 1225.00 +10.00 July 2013/September 2013 1215.00 +0.00 October 2013/December
2013 1165.00 +0.00.
SUNOIL any origin: dollars tonne cif Rotterdam unquoted.
GROUNDNUT OIL any origin: dollars tonne cif Rotterdam unquoted.
GROUNDNUT OIL Braz/Arg/US: dollars tonne cif Rotterdam unquoted.
LINOIL any origin: dollars tonne ex-tank Rotterdam June 2013/July 2013 1312.50 10.00.
CRUDE PALM OIL Sumatra/Malaysia slrs option: dollars tonne cif R'dam May 2013
847.50 June 2013 845.00 -2.50 July 2013/September 2013 837.50 -2.50 October
2013/December 2013 832.50 -5.00 January 2014/March 2014 835.00 -5.00.
PALMOIL RBD: dollars tonne cif Rotterdam June 2013 877.50 July 2013/September
2013 875.00.
PALMOIL RBD: dollars tonne fob Malaysia June 2013 792.50 -5.00 July
2013/September 2013 790.00 -7.50.
PALM OLEIN RBD: dollars tonne fob Malaysia June 2013 802.50 -5.00 July
2013/September 2013 800.00 -7.50 October 2013/December 2013 790.00 -7.50 January
2014/March 2014 795.00 -7.50.
PALM STEARIN: dollars tonne fob Malaysia May 2013 750.00 June 2013 750.00 5.00.
PALM FATTY ACID DISTILLATE: dollars tonne fob Malaysia May 2013 635.00
+0.00.
COCONUT OIL Phil/Indon: dollars tonne cif Rotterdam May 2013/June 2013
unquoted June 2013/July 2013 810.00 -10.00 July 2013/August 2013 820.00 -10.00
August 2013/September 2013 830.00 -10.00 September 2013/October 2013 840.00 10.00.
PALMKERNEL OIL Mal/Indon: dollars tonne cif Rotterdam June 2013/July 2013
815.00 +0.00 July 2013/August 2013 820.00 +0.00.
TUNGOIL any origin: dollars tonne ex-tank Rotterdam unquoted.
CASTOROIL any origin: dollars tonne ex-tank Rotterdam June 2013/July 2013
1600.00 +0.00.
Palm oil stays down
Malaysian palm oil futures fell for a third straight day on Wednesday, as weak exports
and a firm ringgit currency stirred doubts about the strength of demand for the edible oil.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for the first 15 days of May fell 7.6 percent to
599,300 tonnes from 648,275 tonnes shipped during the same period a month ago, cargo
surveyor Intertek Testing Services (ITS) said.
Another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance, reported a smaller decline of 3
percent for the same period. "We continue to see a downtrend in terms of exports, which
is bearish for the market," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala
Lumpur. But on the bright side, the decline is slightly less than the first 10 days and we
will have to see if exports will recover in the second half of the month." Shipments fell
16.7 percent in the first 10 days of May from a month ago, according to ITS.
At market close, the benchmark July contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives
Exchange was down 0.3 percent at 2,296 ringgit ($763) per tonne, after trading between
2,277 and 2,299 ringgit. Total traded volumes stood at 42,201 lots of 25 tonnes each,
higher than the average 35,000 lots.
Malaysia, the world's No 2 palm oil producer, will set its crude palm oil export tax for
June at 4.5 percent, flat with May, a government circular showed. Official data showed
the country's palm oil stocks fell to 1.93 million tonnes at the end of April, below the
psychological two-million-tonne mark and sending the market to a one-month high on
Monday, although prices came off on worries over lacklustre export demand. In
vegetable oil markets, US soyaoil for July delivery fell 0.3 percent in late Asian trade.
The most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange
lost 2.5 percent.
China 2013-14 soya imports to hit record,
rise 11.9 percent
China, the world's top soya buyer, is forecast to import a record 66 million tonnes of the
oilseed in 2013/14 due to robust domestic demand and low stocks, an official think-tank
said. That is 11.9 percent higher than estimated imports for the current marketing year,
ending in September, the China National Grain and Oils Information Center said on
Wednesday.
But the figure is 3 million tonnes lower than predictions by the US Department of
Agriculture, which put China's soya imports at 69 million tonnes in the next marketing
year - two thirds of the world total. China's soya imports in the current year are likely to
fall by 230,000 tonnes from the previous year due to a reduction in global supplies, while
port congestion in Brazil, the world' second largest exporter, has also delayed some
shipments, it said.
The center does not expect any major impact on demand from outbreaks of bird flu that
have already killed 35. Current soya stocks at ports have fallen below 4 million tonnes,
their weakest since 2010, following low imports in the first four months of the year, it
said. Demand for soyameal, the major ingredient for animal feed production, was also
projected to rise 7.1 percent on the year in 2013/14 to 52.4 million tonnes. Chinese soya
plants need about 5 million tonnes of soya every month. The center also expects China to
import 1.1 million tonnes of soyaoil in 2013/14 and 3 million tonnes of rapeseed. It did
not give comparative figures. Rapeseed oil imports in 2013/14 were seen at 1.3 million
tonnes.
Sugar falls to near three-year low
Benchmark raw sugar futures on ICE broke below 17 cents a lb on Wednesday to lows
unseen in nearly three years and coffee slid about 2.6 percent in late New York trade, as
both markets were pressured by improving weather in Brazil and a strong dollar. ICE
July arabica coffee futures finished down 3.45 cents, or about 2.60 percent, at $1.4055
per lb. Earlier coffee prices tumbled more than 2.60 percent to a one-week low at
$1.4005.
Concerns about leaf rust in the Central American coffee growing regions were
outweighed by the fair weather outlook which should bolster top producer Brazil's
already ample crop. July raw sugar futures fell to 16.92 cents a lb, the weakest level for
the front month since July 2010, and settled at 16.95 per lb. "The expectation of a record
sugar cane crop in Brazil has long been weighing on prices. Following a number of
delays due to rain, the harvest has indeed now got under way at considerable speed,"
Commerzbank said in a market note on Wednesday.
VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov said there had also been more technically
driven selling after the market broke key support levels on Tuesday while a stronger
dollar added to the downward pressure on prices on Wednesday. Noting the bearish
sentiment toward sugar, Jack Scoville, broker with The Price Futures Group in Chicago
said, "Traders are keeping an eye on developments in Brazil and expect a big production
as the harvest moves forward."
The sugar market downward trend has lasted over two years with prices less than half the
36.08 peak set in February 2011. August white sugar on Liffe was also lower at $477.00
per tonne, after hitting a 3-year low at $474.10. Goldman Sachs on Wednesday put its
three-month and 12-month forecasts for Arabica coffee at $1.45 per lb. "Net risks to our
forecast are symmetrical: while still relatively low inventories and potential for further
cuts to Central American production could provide support for prices, further increases in
Brazil's production could weigh on prices in coming months," Goldman Sachs said in a
market note.
Liffe July robusta coffee gained $24, or 1.20 percent, to $2,029 a tonne in late trade.
Cocoa futures on Liffe slipped in a weak finish for the May contract, which expired
earlier Wednesday. May cocoa on Liffe ended down 28 pounds, or 1.75 percent, at 1,569
pounds a tonne, and July lost 2 pounds, or 0.13 percent, to settle at 1,566 pounds per
tonne. The ICE July contract lost $9, or about 0.4 percent, to end at $2,344 a tonne. It was
off $2 at $2,351 in late trade.
US MIDDAY: wheat falls two percent
Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell more than 2 percent to a two-week low
on Wednesday in reaction to technical selling, a stronger US dollar and lacklustre exports
of US grain, traders said. Soyabeans fell on chart-based selling and monthly data showing
a slower-than-expected US soyabean crushing pace.
Corn was pulled down by soya and wheat in thin trading, but the lead July contract was
underpinned by strong cash markets. At the CBOT as of 12:32 pm CDT (1732 GMT),
July wheat was down 15-1/2 cents at $6.95-1/4 per bushel. July soyabeans fell 3-3/4 cents
at $14.11 a bushel and July corn was down 1/4 cent at $6.52-1/4 a bushel. In wheat, sellstops were hit as the July contract fell below $7 a bushel.
Wheat came under pressure as the dollar rose to a six-week high versus the euro on
evidence that Europe was stuck in recession. A stronger dollar makes US wheat less
competitive on the world market. "US soft red winter wheat remains fairly competitive,
but US exports have been beaten down due to a pickup in shipments from India, and also
Southeast Asian millers seeking Australian wheat," said Terry Reilly, analyst with
Futures International in Chicago.
"Dryness concerns for the former Soviet Union are easing somewhat, with better chances
of rain for both the Ukraine and Russia over the next two weeks," FCStone said in a daily
note. Soyabean futures fell in choppy trade, pressured by monthly data from the National
Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) showing a smaller-than-expected US soyabean
crushing pace.
NOPA reported said the soyabean crush fell to 120.11 million bushels in April, from
137.08 million in March. Technical selling played a role as well. July soyabeans briefly
dipped to $14.02-1/4, falling through support at the contract's 100-day moving average of
$14.05.
Corn falls
Chicago Board of Trade corn futures fell on Tuesday on profit-taking and expectations
that US farmers will make significant planting progress this week, traders said. "There is
some optimism with planting progress," said Ken Smithmier, analyst at the Hightower
Report in Chicago. "We have a well-advertised storm system moving in by late this
week. The farmer is well aware of that, and he is going to try to get as much done as he
possibly can until he starts seeing raindrops on the windshield," Smithmier said.
Bruce Rowher, a producer from Paullina, Iowa, who is president of the Iowa Corn
Growers Association, concurred. "It's pretty frantic in our area as everyone is pushing
hard to get as much planted before the next round of precipitation," Rohwer wrote in a
planting update Tuesday.
At the CBOT, most-active July corn ended down 3 cents at $6.52-1/2 per bushel and July
soyabeans settled down 4-1/2 cents at $14.14-3/4 a bushel. Wheat edged higher while
staying inside of Monday's trading range. CBOT July wheat ended up 1 cent at $7.10-3/4
a bushel. Both corn and soyabeans retreated after hitting chart-based resistance levels.
The benchmark July soyabean contract fell back from a six-week high set early in the
session.
However, new-crop November soyabeans ended higher as traders exited long July/short
November spread positions, following the midday expiration of CBOT May contracts.
The July soya contract gained against November for most of this month, supported by
strong cash markets, dwindling supplies of old-crop US soyabeans and the absence of
deliveries against the May contract.
Ahead of its expiration Tuesday at 12:01 pm CDT (1701 GMT), May soyabeans surged
to $15.45 a bushel, the highest spot soyabean price on a continuous chart since November
2. The contract pared gains to settle at $15.24-1/2. After May expired, traders took profits
on July/November soyabean spreads as well as July/December corn and soyameal
spreads.
"The feeling was that once the May went off the board, you can relax that stuff for a bit. I
think everybody believes the May was going to be biggest as far as fireworks for this
year," said Charlie Sernatinger of ED&F Man Capital in Chicago. The CBOT has
reported no deliveries of soyabeans, corn or soyameal so far during the May delivery
cycle, a sign that commercial grain handlers see more value in selling into the firm cash
market than in delivering against futures.
US Midwest corn and soya bids ease on
river
Corn and soyabean spot basis bids eased at river terminals around the US Midwest on
Tuesday following a recent spike in farmer sales and amid wild fluctuations in the
expiring May futures contracts at the Chicago Board of Trade, grain merchants said. The
CBOT May soyabeans contract and CBOT May corn contract expired at midday with
premiums near contract highs over their respective July counterparts.
Most grain merchants were already posting against July beans and July corn and eased
their bids to reflect the gains in the spread and maintain a profit margin. Soya bids eased
12 to 13 cents per bushel on the Mississippi and Illinois rivers while corn bids declined
by 2 to 3 cents on the waterways. Bids for the commodities were steady to higher at
interior processors, elevators and ethanol plants as a modest bump in country selling
earlier this week failed to satisfy demand after a slow pace of sales in recent weeks.
Largely dry conditions across the Midwest also allowed farmers to plant corn seeds,
reducing the already slow pace of deliveries to market and further underpinning bids.
Corn and soyabean export premiums
steady to firm
Export premiums for corn shipped from the US Gulf Coast were steady to firm on
Tuesday, despite sluggish demand, as tight stocks kept basis offers near historic
springtime highs, traders said. Demand for US shipments through the end of summer was
muted as an ample supply of less expensive South American grain was available.
US Gulf corn for shipment in the first half of June was offered at about $296 per tonne
free on board (FOB). Argentine corn for the same shipping period was offered at about
$259 per tonne FOB, according to Reuters data. Soyabean export premiums at the US
Gulf were firm due to tight stocks, although some exporters were reluctant to offer
shipments until late June or July due to exceptionally tight old-crop stocks.
US Gulf May shipments were unquoted. June shipments were also ill defined, though
traders said exporters may be willing to sell for prices above $575 or $580 per tonne
FOB. June shipments from Brazil's Paranagua port were offered at about $513 per tonne
FOB, according to Reuters data. Heavy shipments of South American soyabeans should
keep a lid on US exports until at least late September, analysts Oil World said on
Tuesday.
Stevedores at three Brazilian ports, including major grain ports Santos and Paranagua,
walked off the job on Tuesday to protest government reforms to port operations. Traders
are monitoring the situation as a prolonged strike may increase port congestion during the
peak soya export season and raise demurrage costs for shippers.
Bangladesh tea prices up
Tea prices in Bangladesh rose at a weekly auction on strong demand from local buyers on
Wednesday and sales volume also went up despite higher supplies this week, brokers
said. The average price of Bangladeshi tea rose to 280.54 taka ($3.6) per kg against
277.74 taka in the previous auction, an official at National Brokers Limited said.
More than 672,000 kg of tea were offered at Chittagong, with 4 percent unsold, compared
with 548,598 kg offered and 25 percent unsold at the previous auction. Last January,
Bangladesh's tax authority imposed a 25 percent duty on tea imports to safeguard the
local industry. The south Asian country produces 60 million kg of tea a year against
demand of 56 million. Tea consumption is rising by 4.5 percent annually, in line with
steady economic growth.
Undersized cocoa beans hamper Ivorian
mid-crop purchases
Undersized cocoa beans are hampering purchases of Ivory Coast's mid-crop harvest,
leading some co-operatives to shut down amid violations of the government's guaranteed
minimum price for farmers, exporters and growers said. The West African nation's
marketing board, the Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC), set a maximum bean count - the
measure of bean size - of 120 beans per 100g for beans exported during the April-toSeptember mid-crop.
But exporters said the bulk of the beans produced during the early stages of the harvest
have not met the CCC's minimum standards. "Last year during this same period, we were
working. But this season we're on the sidelines," said a purchasing manager for one bean
exporter. "There is a lot of cocoa that won't be shipped out of the bush because the beans
are too small."
With many exporters suspending purchases, the farmer co-operatives that typically
supply them with beans are struggling. "We can no longer work. Many co-operatives
have stopped. This week a truck with 35 tonnes we sent to Abidjan was rejected because
the beans were too small," said N'Dri Kouao, a co-operative manager based in Niable,
near the border with Ghana. Overall, traders are predicting a bumper mid-crop harvest,
and port arrivals are currently outpacing those during the same period last year.
Exporters estimated around 23,000 tonnes of beans were delivered to the ports of Abidjan
and San Pedro last week, up from 15,000 tonnes last season. The handful of companies
with local processing facilities in Ivory Coast are allowed to buy up to a maximum bean
count of 140 beans per 100g, and exporters said they are currently buying the bulk of
arrivals. But with few bean exporters active as harvesting picks up, the few buyers still
operating have pushed prices down, largely ignoring a guaranteed minimum price for
farmers fixed by the CCC as part of a sweeping reform of the sector. Ivory Coast forward
sold the bulk of its anticipated 2012/13 cocoa crop in order to set the minimum price,
ending more than a decade of liberalisation in an effort to raise farmer incomes and
ensure the sector's future.
US MIDDAY: gold slips below $1,400
Gold slid below $1,400 an ounce on Wednesday, losing two percent and hitting its lowest
in nearly a month as a record rally in US equities and economic optimism undermined
bullion's safe-haven appeal. The metal fell for a fifth straight session for its longest daily
losing streak since January 2011 as the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high and Wall Street
has risen for four consecutive sessions.
"There is no reason to own gold as long as people keep on putting money into the stock
market. You can see it everywhere that the economy is turning around," said Comex gold
options floor trader Jonathan Jossen. A pause in strong physical demand after news India
restricted imports to cut trading deficit also weighed on gold.
Spot gold dropped as much as 2.5 percent to $1,390.24, its lowest since April 19. It was
down 2 percent at $1,396.94 an ounce by 2:09 pm EDT (1809 GMT). Analysts expect the
fall below the psychologically significant $1,400 level could be a trigger for further
heavy selling and might retest two-year lows of $1,321.35 an ounce hit on April 16.
US Comex gold futures for June delivery settled down $28.30 at $1,396.20 an ounce,
with trading volume on track to finish near its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data
showed. A stronger dollar and initial heavy losses in crude oil also weighed on gold.
As a gauge of investor sentiment, holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed
ETF, were unchanged at 33.8 million ounces on Tuesday, but still within sight of their
lowest since March 2009 hit earlier. Gold buying in India came to a halt as the country's
central bank restricted imports after a surge in buying in April sent the trade deficit to
$17.8 billion for the month, up more than 72 percent from March.
"With India doing its best through taxation to limit gold buying, the demand from there is
not as big as it was the last time we were at these levels," Marex Spectron head of
precious metals David Govett said. In other precious metals, silver fell 2.7 percent to
$22.72 an ounce, platinum was down 0.5 percent to $1,489.24 an ounce and palladium
dropped 0.1 percent to $725.72 an ounce.
Gold at four-week low
Gold fell for the fifth straight session on Wednesday, hitting a four-week low below
$1,400 as the dollar strengthened to a six-week high versus the euro, clouding the metal's
already weak technical picture. The metal extended losses after the weekly US EIA crude
inventory data sent crude oil prices lower, denting bullion's appeal as a hedge against
inflation, traders said.
Spot gold dropped as much as 2 percent to its lowest since April 19 at $1,394.06 an
ounce and was seen at $1,396.64 by 1500 GMT. Analysts expect the fall below the
psychologically significant $1,400 level could be a trigger for further heavy selling and
might retest two-year lows of $1,321.35 an ounce hit on April 16.
A fifth consecutive daily fall for bullion would be its longest run of losses since January
2011. It has fallen around 15 percent so far in 2013 after gaining for the past 12 years. US
gold futures for June fell 2.1 percent to $1,394.60 an ounce. "The stronger dollar is
weighing on gold prices, exacerbating the weak technical picture," Commerzbank analyst
Carsten Fritsch said.
"Fundamentals haven't changed, we still have low investment interest and benign
inflation risks." As a gauge of investor sentiment, holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the
largest gold-backed ETF, were unchanged at 33.8 million ounces on Tuesday, but still
within sight of their lowest since March 2009 hit earlier.
Gold buying in India came to a halt as the country's central bank restricted imports after a
surge in buying in April sent the trade deficit to $17.8 billion for the month, up more than
72 percent from March. India's gold and silver imports surged 138 percent on the year in
April as customers took advantage of lower prices, increasing pressure on the current
account balance and limiting the space for monetary easing.
"With India doing its best through taxation to limit gold buying, the demand from there is
not as big as it was the last time we were at these levels," Marex Spectron head of
precious metals David Govett said. "As the market becomes somewhat accustomed to
these lower prices, the physical demand slackens and waits once again for dips." In other
precious metals, silver fell 3.2 percent to a four-week low of $22.47 an ounce, platinum
was down 0.7 percent to $1,484.90 an ounce and palladium dropped 0.8 percent to
$720.97 an ounce.
Gold down in Asia
Gold hit a three-week low on Wednesday, stretching its losses into a fifth straight session,
as the euro weakened on disappointing European growth numbers and firm equities lured
away investors. Gold was down $15.8 at $1,409.59 an ounce by 0814 GMT, after
swinging between a high of $1,430.24 and the three-week low of $1,408.24. US gold
futures for June dropped about 1 percent to $1,408.20 an ounce.
While spot gold has recovered about 7 percent from a two-year low plumbed in midApril, prices are still down more than 14 percent for the year, on track to snap a 12-year
winning run.
Gold remains lower in New York
Gold fell for a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday, its longest losing streak in over
two months, as economic optimism and another intraday record high in US equities
sapped bullion's safe-haven appeal. Gold also extended losses after credit-rating agency
Fitch's upgraded Greece's sovereign credit rating by one notch, citing the country's
progress in cutting its budget deficit and the receding risk of its euro zone exit.
Spot gold fell 0.4 percent to $1,424.14 by 2:26 pm EDT (1826 GMT), having earlier
risen by 1 percent to a session high of $1,444.96. The metal hovered just above its two-
week low of $1,420.61 set on Friday. It has faced the headwinds of a stronger dollar
against the yen and the euro over the past few sessions. US Comex gold futures for June
delivery settled down $9.80 at $1,424.50 an ounce, with trading volume about 20 percent
near its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed.
Gold has recovered about half of its losses after a sell-off in mid-April dragged prices to
more than two-year lows at $1,321.35, but it is still well below April's high of around
$1,600, as investors shifted into equities and cut exposure to bullion. In other precious
metals, silver fell 1 percent to $23.36 an ounce, platinum was up 1.6 percent to $1,499.50
an ounce and palladium rose 1.7 percent to $727.08 an ounce.
Copper slips as European growth fizzles,
funds sell
Copper slid to its lowest in nearly two weeks on Wednesday after disappointing
European economic data fuelled worries about global growth and metals demand,
emboldening funds to add to short positions. A stronger dollar also weighed on markets
and further gains in inventories reminded investors that most base metals markets are
over supplied.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange ended at $7,198, down from
Tuesday's close of $7,245, having earlier hit its lowest since May 3 at $7,101 a tonne.
Copper logged its steepest fall in two weeks on Tuesday - a decline of 2.3 percent - and is
down nearly 10 percent for the year. Many fund investors regarded a rebound to nearly
$7,500 from 18-month lows as an opportunity to add to short positions.
"I know a lot of funds were thinking that anything towards $7,500 was a sell and then
we've had weaker manufacturing data and that's helped take the edge off," Citigroup
analyst David Wilson said. "At the moment there seems to be a ceiling at $7,500 and
(what) looks like a good floor at $6,800. At the bottom end of the range we've seen the
arb (arbitrage with LME) open up with Chinese buying and strong premiums."
Copper went into negative territory after data showed Germany's economy managed a
surprisingly weak crawl back into growth in the first quarter of the year, after a sharp
contraction at the end of 2012, while France slipped into recession. In response, the euro
tumbled to its lowest in six weeks against the dollar, adding downward pressure on
metals. Commodities, priced in US dollars, tend to fall when the US currency
strengthens, making them more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Oversupplied markets showed up on Wednesday in LME inventories, with copper stocks
rising by 8,825 tonnes to 627,525 tonnes, the highest in 10 years, and zinc stocks jumping
by 87,525 tonnes to 1.12 million tonnes. In industry news, the Indonesian unit of
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc suspended operations at the world's second-
largest copper mine on Wednesday, a source with knowledge of the matter said, after a
training tunnel collapsed the previous day. "Rescue efforts are continuing, but the
accident is not expected to impede production since the tunnel site was not an integral
part of the supply chain," INTL FCStone analyst Ed Meir said. Aluminium ended at
$1,840 from Tuesday's close of $1,857, zinc closed at $1,823 from $1,846 and lead ended
at $1,970 from $1,979. Nickel closed at $14,905 from $15,105 and tin ended at $20,755
from a last bid of $20,995.
Shanghai copper drops
The most-traded September copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped
1.17 percent to 52,480 yuan ($8,500) a tonne on Wednesday. "We do expect prices for
most base metals to spring to life in the third quarter, it's looking better, particularly in
the United States," said Matt Fusarelli of consultancy AME Group in Sydney.
"We are starting to reach points where there is going to be a structural slowing in
demand. We expect copper demand growth in China of around 5 percent this year,"
Fusarelli added.
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap –Buyers Reluctant to Pay Up Amid Futures
Weakness
May 15, 2013
The U.S. cash rice market was lifeless today as seller price ideas remained firm while
buyers were reluctant to increase their price ideas amid weakness in the futures market.
With planting progress well behind the 5-year average in all most producing states due to
cold and wet weather, many analyst suspects that we could see decreased field yields and
milling yields due to: the increased use of air seeding; the increased chance of tropical
storm damage; and increased possibility of high temps during pollination. However,
others note that there is still plenty of time for the crop to turn around and make a decent
yield.
As of today, offers from farmers were unchanged around $16.00-$16.25 per cwt fob farm
(about $353-$358 per ton) for 50 pounds of whole rice or better for May-June shipment
while offers from resellers were unchanged at similar levels despite an decrease in the
future market.
Bids from some mills decreased slightly to around $14.95 per cwt (about $330 per ton)
for May-June delivery which continues to generate zero selling interest while bids from
smaller mills could still be found around $15.55-$15.80 per cwt (about $343-$348 per
ton) for May-June delivery of 55 pounds although no trades were reported today.
Bids from exporters decreased today to around $15.50-$15.75 per cwt (about $342-$347
per ton) for April-May delivery of 52 pounds of whole rice or better although there were
no exporters willing to come off of their price ideas to make a trade.
Thailand Rice Exporters Association Slashes Export Projection Nearly 8% to 6
Million Tons
May 15, 2013
The Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA)cut its 2013 rice export forecast by nearly
8% to 6 million tons from 6.5 million tons, citing uncompetitive prices caused by the
government’s rice mortgage scheme and a strong Thai baht. The Thailand rice mortgage
scheme began in September 2011 and Thailand rice quotes are today about $150 per ton
higher than Vietnam, the cheapest asia rice origin.
The Thai baht has strengthened about 5% in the last 12 months, from about 31.4 baht per
U.S. dollar in May 2012 to about 29.7 baht per U.S. dollar most recently. The baht had
strengthened to a high of nearly 28.5 baht per U.S. dollar in April but recently gave back
some of those gains. Over the last 5 years, the baht has strengthened about 20%. Since
the rice scheme started, the baht is only about 2% stronger. A stronger baht makes
Thailand exports such as rice more expensive on the global market.
Thailand is holding about 14-18 million tons of rice accumuluated under the scheme and
the next main harvest beginnning in October could add another 10 million tons of rice to
stocks, less any Thailand is able to sell.
If Thailand ships 6 million tons this year, that will be a decline of about 14% from about
7 million tons for 2012, according to TREA data, and down from about 10.8 million tons
in 2011. The USDA estimates Thailand’s 2013 rice exports at about 8 million tons, up
from 6.9 million tons estimated for 2012.
Oryza Quick Glance at MDA Rice Crop Weather Update
Oryza shares some of MDA’s latest rice crop weather updates:
Indonesia received beneficial rains this week. Western Java moisture levels are below
normal while Southern Sumatra could also use more rain. The Malay Peninsula and
western Sulawesi are getting drier.
Rains in Vietnam and Thailand are beneficial and more rains are expected.
Rains in the Philippines are reducing soil dryness there.
Rains in China improved soil moisture for the early double crop and single-crop growth
as well as late double-crop planting. More rains are needed in the North China Plain.
Japan could use more rain as the planting season gets underway.
While the rains are favored in Bangladesh for Aus growth and ahead of Aman rice
planting, it may have caused delays in Boro harvesting.
In India, Rabi rice harvesting was mainly uninterrupted and favorable harvesting
conditions prevailed. Showers in southern India this week should improve soil moisture
ahead of Kharif planting.
Wetness remains in the U.S. South and lighter showers this week will be favorable. The
Southern Delta region is on the drier side. Temperatures will be warming and conditions
across Texas are favorable for planting and growth.
Recent rains in northern/central Brazil have improved conditions for rice growth but may
affect harvest.
Heavy rains in Argentina may delay harvest.
Wetness concerns continue across southern Nigeria and Cameroon as well as central
Ivory Coast with additional rains expected this week. Any heavier rains across the region
may lead to harvesting delays of the second season crop but could prove favorable for
drier soils ahead of main season planting.
MDA is forecasting global rice production of about 483 million tons in 2013, up from its
estimate of 471 million tons for 2012.
Oryza Rice Currency Analysis for Today – Euro Down 0.3% as Recession Deepens
May 15, 2013
U.S. dollar index was up +0.28% from the open today, when it traded at 83.827 at the
close.
Euro was -0.34% weaker by the close, trading around 1.2877 by end of day, having
traded at a high of 1.2943 near the open and a low of 1.2843 mid-morning. The common
currency continued to weaken today after reports showed the region’s recession
deepened.
Thai baht closed the day -0.30% weaker, trading at 29.75 at the close of business today.
Indian rupee was +0.06% stronger at the close today when it traded at 54.7813.
Brazilian real was -0.21% weaker than the open at today’s close, when it ended at 2.0250
reais per dollar.
Pakistan rupee was -0.08% weaker at the close today, when it traded at 98.5300.
Vietnamese dong was unchanged from the 20,940 dong per dollar open, at the close of
business today.
Mexican peso was -0.14% weaker, when it traded at 12.2119 pesos per dollar by the close
of business today.
Chinese yuan was -0.05% weaker today, when it traded by close at 6.1461.
Argentine peso was +0.07% stronger from the open today at the close, when it traded at
5.2336 pesos per dollar.
Oryza Afternoon Recap – Strengthening U.S. Dollar Pushes Chicago Rough Rice
Futures Lower
May 15, 2013
Chicago rough rice futures for July delivery settled 13.5 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton)
lower at $15.230 per cwt (about $336 per ton). Rough rice futures were lower once again
today, crossing below nearby support and ultimately moving the market into technically
bearish territory. Trade volume remains light and market observers describe the trade
action so far this week as “indicative of spec/fund activity”. The question of whether the
bears can maintain such depressed levels given the firm cash market and dwindling
supplies. A broad based selloff across the commodity markets added additional
downward pressure today as the other grains also traded lower on the day with wheat
leading the complex to the downside; soybeans finished the day about 0.1% lower at
$14.1275 per bushel; wheat finished about 2.4% lower at $6.9475 per bushel; and corn
finished the day about 0.3% lower at $6.5175 per bushel.
U.S. stocks extended their gains to trade near session highs Wednesday, boosted by the
defensive sectors, lifting the Dow and S&P 500 to another all-time high. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average turned higher. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also edged higher.
Among key S&P sectors, energy led the laggards, while consumer staples climbed. U.S.
stock markets are currently trading up about 0.2%, gold is trading down about 2%, crude
oil is currently trading down about 0.1%, and the U.S. dollar is trading about 0.3% higher
at about 1:30pm Chicago time.
Turning to the daily continuation chart of Chicago rough rice futures for Jul delivery,
prices came under firm selling pressure once again today, this time slipping below nearby
support and into bearish territory. Today’s action has placed the market below the 20-day
moving average which likely spurred additional selling pressure. Additional bearish
interest has likely been triggered as prices have now broken through the lower boundary
of the recent positively sloped trading channel. Today’s price action is seen as a negative
development for future trade direction as the market appears to be nearing the completion
of a double top trading pattern, which will be confirmed upon the breaking support which
is noted around $15.250 per cwt (about $336 per ton). A crossing below this level would
likely send prices lower towards $15.000 per cwt (about $331 per ton), where prices will
likely find strong psychological support. Today’s trading range is noted as $15.210$15.375 per cwt (about $335-$339 per ton).
Tuesday, there were 379 contracts traded, down from 625 contracts traded on Monday.
Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Tuesday increased by 33
contracts to 11,526.
South Korea Buys 25,053 Tons Rice But Passes on 41,319 Tons Citing High Prices
South Korea bought 25,053 tons of rice via tenders that closed on May 6, according to the
state-rice buying agency Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade.
11,111 tons were bought at $711.98 per ton CIF for arrival August 31 at Gwangyang Port
13,941 tons were bought at $918.00 per ton CIF for arrival October 31 at Pyeongtaek
Port
South Korea passed on tenders to buy 41,319 tons, citing high prices.
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Weighed Down by Negative
Outside Markets
May 15, 2013
Chicago rough rice futures for Jul delivery were paused 5.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per
ton) lower at $15.310 per cwt (about $338 per ton) as of 8:15am Chicago time. The other
grains are seen lower during this morning break ahead of floor trading in Chicago:
soybeans are currently down about 0.5%, wheat is down about 0.8%, and corn is seen
about 0.7% lower.
U.S. stocks index futures remained lower Wednesday following a batch of tepid
economic reports and a day after the Dow and the S&P 500 rallied to close at fresh highs.
On the economic front, producer prices fell 0.7% in April, posting their biggest drop in
three years, as gasoline and food costs tumbled, according to the Labor Department.
Economists expected a decline of 0.6%, according to a Reuters survey. Meanwhile, the
New York Federal Reserve's "Empire State" general business conditions index declined
to minus 1.43 in May from 3.05 in April, missing expectations for an increase to 4. It was
the first reading below zero since January, which indicates contraction in activity in the
manufacturing sector. And the housing market index from the National Association of
Home Builders will be released at 10 am ET. Economists in a Reuters survey expect a
reading of 43 versus 42 in April. Shares in Europe and Asia were largely flat as markets
took a break from the global risk-on rally, but the Japanese Nikkei 225 rose over 2% to
close above 15,000 for the first time since 2008. U.S. stock index futures are currently
trading down about 0.1%, gold is currently trading down about 0.9%, crude oil is seen
1.2% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.3% higher at 8:15am Chicago
time.
Thailand Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their Quotes
May 15, 2013
Thailand rice sellers lowered their quotes for parboiled rice by about $5 per ton to about
$550 - $560 per ton today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes unchanged.
5% Broken Rice
Thai 5% rice is quoted around $520 - $530 per ton, about a $150 per ton premium over
Viet 5% rice shown around $370 - $380 per ton.
Indian 5% rice is quoted around $450 - $460 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium to Pak
5% rice shown around $430 - $440 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thai 25% rice is quoted about $505 - $515 per ton, about a $155 per ton premium over
Viet 25% rice shown around $350 - $360 per ton.
Indian 25% rice is quoted about $395 - $405 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium over
Pak 25% rice shown around $375 - $385 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thai parboiled rice is quoted around $550 - $560 per ton, down about $5 per ton from
yesterday.
Indian parboiled rice is quoted around $430 - $440 per ton, about $10 per ton discount to
Pak parboiled rice shown around $440 - $450 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thai broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted around $490 - $500 per ton, about a $155 per ton
premium over Viet broken rice shown around $335 - $345 per ton.
Indian broken sortexed rice is quoted about $320 - $330 per ton, about $20 per ton
discount to Pak broken sortexed rice indicated around $340- $350 per ton.
Soybeans Gain First Time in Three Days
as China Demand May Climb
Soybeans advanced for the first time in three days on signs demand is increasing in
China, the world’s largest buyer. Corn declined.
The oilseed for delivery in July gained as much as 0.3 percent to $14.1625 a bushel on
the Chicago Board of Trade, and was at $14.1575 by 11:58 a.m. in Singapore on volume
that was 52 percent below the 100-day average for that time of day.
China bought 171,000 metric tons from U.S. exporters for delivery in the marketing year
beginning Sept. 1, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said yesterday. Buyers in China
are waiting for the new U.S. crop to come on stream, taking total monthly average
purchases in August and September to 5 million tons, China National Grain and Oils
Information Center said today. China imported 3.98 million tons in April, customs data
compiled by Bloomberg show.
“China is showing continued interest in new crop U.S. soybeans” Ker Chung Yang, an
analyst at Phillip Futures Pte, wrote in a report today.
Total imports, including purchases from South America, will probably reach a record 7
million tons to 7.5 million tons in June, the center said in an e-mailed report.
Corn for delivery in July fell 0.2 percent to $6.4975 a bushel, while wheat gained 0.3
percent to $6.955 a bushel.
Brazil ethanol demand to cut global sugar
surplus -Copersucar
* Copersucar sells smallest ever portion of early crop to sugar market
* Datagro sees 2013/14 surplus shrinking
* Shift to ethanol will continue - Unica
By Chris Prentice
NEW YORK, May 15 (Reuters) - Demand from Brazil's resurgent biofuels industry will
cut the burgeoning global sugar surplus, helping cushion prices that fell below 17 cents
per lb for the first time in almost three years, the chief of the world's biggest producer
said on Wednesday.
Brazil's Copersucar has sold only one third of its early crop to the sugar industry, the
lowest portion dedicated to sweetener in the company's history, Chief Executive Paulo
Roberto de Souza said at Datagro's Sugar and Ethanol Conference.
Mills have shifted sales in response to sinking sugar prices and to government incentives
that boost profits for selling more early cane crushing to the ethanol industry, rather than
exporting raw sugar.
The Brazilian government mandated an increase in the amount of ethanol in fuel blends
from 20 to 25 percent beginning on May 1. It has also reduced taxes to boost
consumption beginning in May, and increased gasoline prices earlier this year.
Many sugar traders hope growing demand from Brazil's biofuel industry will help offset
the sluggish export market for raw sugar and support raw prices.
The most-active July contract on ICE Futures U.S. sank below 17 cents per lb on
Wednesday for the first time in almost three years, as the market braced for massive
oversupply as a bumper Brazilian cane harvest ramps up.
Copersucar intends to devote 42 percent of this year's crop to sugar production. This
would include 135 million tonnes of sugar between their own production and associated
producers. That would be down from 49 percent of last year's crop, due to higher ethanol
production.
"Ethanol has been providing a soft landing for sugar prices," he said during a presentation
at the conference.
Sugar growers and traders hope a move to ethanol production in Brazil will whittle down
a huge global sugar surplus.
Datagro forecast a global surplus of 10.24 million tonnes in 2012/13 through September
30, which will fall to 6.2 million tonnes in the next crop year largely due to the growing
ethanol demand, president Plinio Nastari said on Wednesday.
Without a reduction in the surplus, some traders have said they expect global prices to
drift lower, to 16 cents a lb.
The Copersucar chief's comments will also allay concerns among traders after Unica data
released on Monday showed that only 60 percent of Brazil's early crush in April was
dedicated to ethanol production.
That was less than the 61.5 percent during the same period last year and shocked many
traders who had expected a bigger shift to ethanol. The remaining 40 percent went to
sugar.
Part of the reason for April's numbers reflect the earliest production, weighted towards
mills in the state of Parana that tend to have a higher sugar mix, said Copersucar's de
Souza.
Should sugar prices stay near 16.5 cents a lb, as much as 9 million tonnes of sugar
equivalent will move into ethanol production, he said.
Once sugar prices move below 17 cents a lb, producers will shift away from sugar and
toward ethanol. If they recover to about 19 cents, the mix will shift back toward a greater
sugar mix, he said.
On Wednesday, Unica president Elizabeth Farina said the industry association expects an
increase in demand from biofuels.
"We expect an important shift in the ethanol and sugar mix based on current market
forces," she said, pointing to significant rise in ethanol output due to higher fuel
consumption, which is expected to grow 20 percent this year, and government policy
developments.
Procurement prices key hangover for
sugar makers
The rally in sugar stocks at the start of the sugar season in October 2012 in the back of
higher sugar realisations fizzled out after state governments increased sugarcane
procurement prices. While hopes were raised on complete decontrol of the sugar sector,
the government agreed to partial decontrol only. This added to the underperformance of
the stocks in the sector.
Moving forward, do not expect any respite for sugar players as far as sugarcane
procurement prices are concerned. With elections approaching, state governments are
likely to increase the procurement prices further in the new sugar year (SY) starting
October 2013. The government will also not allow sugar prices to rise much to control
inflation and on account of elections. The only respite integrated sugar players can get is
from the sale of ethanol at higher realisations.
Balrampur Chini remains top pick
Amongst the top three players in the sugar space, Balrampur Chini remains the top pick
among analysts. Analysts at ICICI Direct observe that the company is one of the most
efficient plays in the sector with a lighter balance sheet, strong by-product sales and low
overhead expenses.
For Bajaj Hindusthan the key issue is debt. It has a debt of Rs 5,919 crore at the end of
March quarter, which would continue to hamper its earnings growth. It has already
expanded its equity by three times (Rs 22.8 crore in SY11 to Rs 63.9 crore in SY12)
through a rights issue, further diluting its earnings. After dilution, though, the debt to
equity of Bajaj Hindusthan has decreased. Going ahead the high equity base would cap
the benefits to shareholders even when the company earns profits.
Shree Renuka Sugar, too, has high debt and looking at the weakness in its Brazilian
operations, analysts see its turnaround taking a few more quarters. According to
Bloomberg data one year consensus target price for Balrampur Chini stands at Rs 60 (Rs
49.80 now).
Sugarcane procurement prices impact profitability
Sugar realisations remained better in SY 2013 compared to 2012. Higher realisations
were negated by cane procurement prices announced by the UP government. Uttar
Pradesh saw the State Administered Price (SAP) going up Rs 40 a quintal to Rs 280 a
quintal. Maharashtra, too, saw the procurement prices higher by 10 per cent to an average
of around Rs 2,400 a tonne. These were much higher than the central government's Fair
and Remunerative Price (FRP) - the price determined by the central government which is
linked to the basic recovery rate of sugarcane - of Rs 170 a quintal. Given this, the
profitability of sugar producers was bound to get impacted.
The financial results for the march 2013 quarter declared by Balrampur Chini Mill show
the impact of the same. While sugarcane availability remained good in UP unlike
Maharashtra and Karnataka, the company crushed 86.4 million quintals of sugarcane
against 86 million quintals in the last year with better recovery rates (9.56 per cent vs
9.55 per cent last year). Thus, the company saw revenues surge 28.9 per cent y-o-y in the
March 2013 quarter. However, with higher cane costs leading to raw material costs
surging, Ebitda margins halved as compared to the year ago quarter. Margins came in at
16.6 per cent in the March 2013 quarter compared to 33.5 per cent in March 2012
quarter.
Bajaj Hindusthan too, saw sugar sales improve by 2.8 per cent largely due to higher
realisation at Rs 31.3 a kg though volumes remained lower at 320,000 tonnes as
compared to the year-ago quarter number of 340,000 tonnes. Analysts at ICICI Direct
observe that though losses have come down, the higher cost of production (around Rs 33
a kg) for UP mills on the back of higher cane cost could keep earnings from the segment
under pressure.
Higher ethanol prices to provide some respite
With the news of oil marketing companies (OMCs) accepting a base price of Rs 34 a litre
for procuring ethanol, the benefits are likely to accrue to integrated players. This price is
around 26 per cent higher than what sugar mills were offered till now. Sanjeev Kumar
Singh at Centrum observes that this should improve profitability of sugar players. He
estimates 30 per cent and 37.8 per cent increase in FY14 and FY15 profitability for
Balrampur Chini, respectively.
Analysts at ICICI Direct too observe that Balrampur Chini Mills would benefit from
higher sugar realisations (estimated to be Rs 35a kg) after the removal of levy obligation
and substantial increase in ethanol prices (Balrampur has been awarded a contract to
supply 25 million litres at Rs 35 a litre by OMCs). This would aid earnings in FY14 and
FY15. However, higher sugarcane prices and muted global prices would limit this
benefit.
GRAINS-Corn falls as dry weather boosts
US planting, soy firms
SINGAPORE, May 16 (Reuters) - Chicago corn lost more ground
on Thursday as warm, dry weather across the U.S. Midwest boosted
planting, while soybeans ticked higher after falling for two
straight sessions.
Wheat was little changed after sliding 2.4 percent to its
lowest in more than two weeks on Wednesday, under pressure from
the strong dollar and poor demand for U.S. supplies.
"Finally we will see some solid progress on corn planting
this week, before it gets wet again over the weekend and pushes
the farmers out of fields," said Joyce Liu, an analyst at
Phillip Futures.
"Soybean prices have been feeling the heat as Brazilian
soybeans flow through the market and U.S. demand weakens."
Chicago Board of Trade July corn lost 0.1 percent to
$6.50 a bushel by 0314 GMT. July wheat rose 0.1 percent to
$6.94-3/4 a bushel. July soybeans added 0.2 percent to
$14.15-1/2 a bushel.
Warm and dry weather in the U.S. Midwest will help boost
corn plantings that have fallen to a record low pace, posing a
threat to output prospects, agricultural meteorologists said.
Analysts expect the U.S. government's plantings report next
week to show between 55 percent and 65 percent of corn areas
have been planted, up from 28 percent seeded last week.
U.S. fertilizer producer Mosaic Co expects U.S. corn
plantings to reach 95 million to 96 million acres in 2013, as
farmers make up for time lost due to unfavourable spring
weather.
The soybean market has been under pressure from poor demand
in the United States and record supplies from Brazil, which is
expected to emerge as the world's top exporter this year,
overtaking the United States.
Data from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA)
showed a bigger-than-expected slowdown in U.S. soybean crushing.
NOPA reported that the soybean crush fell to 120.11 million
bushels in April, from 137.08 million in March. Analysts in a
Reuters poll had expected a monthly crush of 125.5 million
bushels, as processors slowed output because of tight supplies
of old-crop soybeans.
Wheat ticked higher after steep losses in the last session,
triggered by expectations of record global production and
slowing demand.
Jordan's state grains buyer made no purchase in a tender to
buy 150,000 tonnes of milling wheat that closed on May 14,
European traders said.
Commodity funds sold a net 5,000 Chicago Board of Trade corn
contracts on Wednesday, trade sources said. They were even in
soybeans and sold 4,000 wheat.
Prices at 0314 GMT
Contract
Last
Change Pct chg MA 30
RSI
CBOT wheat
694.75
1.00 +0.14%
867.57
43
CBOT corn
650.00
-0.75 -0.12%
763.58
37
CBOT soy
1415.50
2.75 +0.19% 1577.73
36
CBOT rice
$15.19
-$0.04 -0.26%
$15.47
50
WTI crude
$94.07
-$0.23 -0.24%
$89.12
44
Currencies
Euro/dlr
$1.287
$0.058
USD/AUD
0.989
-0.067
Most active contracts
Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
RSI 14, exponential
GRAINS-Corn falls for the third straight
session on planting expectations
U.S. corn futures fell for the
third consecutive session on Thursday as expectations that dryer
weather would allow Midwest farmers to accelerate planting
continued to weigh on prices.
FUNDAMENTALS
* Chicago Board Of Trade July corn fell 0.19 percent
to $7.53-3/4, having slid 0.27 percent in the previous session.
* July soybeans was little changed at $14.13 a bushel,
having closed down 0.1 percent on Wednesday.
* July wheat was nearly flat at $6.94 a bushel, after
dropping 2.32 percent on Wednesday under pressure from sluggish
demand for U.S. wheat supplies.
* U.S. farmers are expected to make rapid progress in
planting corn this week as dry weather provides a window of
opportunity after wet and cold spring weather delayed seeding,
which was at an all-time low.
* U.S. Energy Information Administration showed U.S. ethanol
production in the latest week rose to 857,000 barrels per day, a
three-week high.
* Soybean futures were pressured by monthly data from the
National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) showing a
bigger-than-expected slowdown in the U.S. soybean crushing pace.
* An official Chinese think-tank forecasted that China, the
world's top soy buyer, would import a record 66 million tonnes
of the oilseed in 2013/14, up 11.9 percent from 2012/13.
* That figure was below the U.S. Agriculture Department's
latest forecast for Chinese imports at 69 million tonnes in
2013/14.
MARKET NEWS
* The euro declined to its lowest level against the dollar
in six weeks on Wednesday as data showing an unexpectedly large
contraction of the euro zone economy raised expectations for
more monetary easing by the European Central Bank.
* U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, with the Dow and S&P 500
hitting new all-time highs in a broad market rally as the recent
upward momentum persisted.
0200
0900
1230
1230
1230
1230
1400
DATA/EVENTS (GMT)
China
Foreign direct investment
Euro zone
Eurostat trade
U.S.
Building permits
U.S.
Housing starts
U.S.
CPI
U.S.
Weekly jobless claims
U.S.
Philly Fed business index
Grains prices at
0101 GMT
Contract
Last
Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30
RSI
CBOT wheat
694.00
0.25 +0.04%
-2.36%
707.59
43
CBOT corn
649.50
-1.25 -0.19%
-0.46%
636.18
37
CBOT soy
1413.00
0.25 +0.02%
-0.12%
1373.96
35
CBOT rice
$15.22
-$0.01 -0.07%
-0.94%
$15.46
52
WTI crude
$94.26
-$0.04 -0.04%
+0.05%
$92.76
46
Currencies
Euro/dlr
$1.288
$0.000 -0.04%
-0.29%
USD/AUD
0.991
0.001 +0.11%
+0.19%
Most active contracts
Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
RSI 14, exponential
Wheat Falls as Global Crop Seen at
Record; Corn Rises; Soy Drops
Wheat futures fell for the first time this week on speculation that global production will
surge to a record in the year that starts on June 1. Corn rallied and soybeans declined.
The world will harvest 701.1 million metric tons of wheat next year, the most-ever, the
U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report on May 10. Russian will expand output
by 48 percent to 56 million tons, while Ukraine’s crop surges 40 percent, USDA data
show. The agency predicts the U.S. will be the biggest exporter next year, followed by
Canada, Russia, Australia and Ukraine. Prices are down 9.6 percent this year.
“If you look at most of the key growing regions, we’re looking at a large wheat crop
worldwide,” Jonathon Driedger, a senior market analyst at FarmLink Marketing
Solutions, said in a telephone interview from Winnipeg, Manitoba.
Wheat futures for July delivery fell 1.1 percent to $7.03 a bushel at 10:33 a.m. on the
Chicago Board of Trade. Prices slipped into a bear market in January and are down 26
percent since reaching a four-year closing high on July 20.
Corn futures for July delivery rose 0.3 percent to $6.545 a bushel in Chicago. Soybean
futures for delivery in July slid 0.1 percent to $14.1275 a bushel on the CBOT.
DJ Brazil Soybeans Weather - May 16
DJ - 20 mins ago
MATO GROSSO AND MATO GROSSO DO SUL
SUMMARY- Widely scattered showers/t-showers in the far southeast
yesterday,
otherwise mostly dry. Mainly dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures
80-94F
(26-34C).
FORECAST-
TODAY...Scattered showers and thundershowers in southern and western
MGDS,
0.20-0.75 inch (5-19 mm). Mostly dry elsewhere. Temperatures 70-88F
(21-31C).
TONIGHT...Dry overnight. Temperatures 63-74F (17-23C).
TOMORROW...Chance of a few isolated showers, otherwise mostly dry.
Temperatures 71-88F (22-31C).
OUTLOOK...Mostly dry Saturday. Chance of a few showers in the south
Sunday
into early Monday. Temperatures becoming warmer in the south over the
weekend.
Variable temperatures Monday.
PARANA AND RIO GRANDE DO SUL
SUMMARY- Dry northern Parana, with heavier showers observed from
southern
Parana through northern and central RGDS yesterday, amounts 0.20-1.25+
inches
(5-32+ mm). Temperatures 58-82F (14-28C).
FORECASTTODAY...Dry northern Parana. Scattered showers from southern Parana
to
northern RGDS, amounts 0.20-1.00+ inch (5-25+ mm). Temperatures 54-82F
(12-28C).
TONIGHT...Generally dry overnight. Temperatures 45-56F (7-13C).
TOMORROW...Drier most areas, save for a few scattered showers across
eastern
Parana and vicinity. Temperatures 54-82F (12-28C).
3-5 DAY OUTLOOK...Scattered showers redevelop in central and southern
areas
Saturday and Sunday, and shift mainly to eastern Parana Monday.
Temperatures
variable to cool in RGDS, but a bit milder in Parana.
BRAZIL SOYBEAN PROSPECTS...
Some delays due to showers for any remaining harvest during the next
5 days.
DJ Argentina Soybeans Weather - May 16
DJ - 20 mins ago
CORDOBA, SANTA FE, NORTHERN BUENOS AIRES
SUMMARY- Showers yesterday, mainly in the north, 0.10-0.50 inch (3-13
mm).
Temperatures 55-65F (13-18C).
FORECASTTODAY...Becoming mostly dry in the region. Temperatures 53-59F (1215C).
TONIGHT...Dry overnight. Temperatures 34-42F (1-6C).
TOMORROW...Mostly dry. Temperatures 54-63F (12-17C).
OUTLOOK...Widely scattered showers Saturday and Sunday, dry Monday.
Temperatures variable to a bit milder.
ARGENTINA SOYBEAN PROSPECTS...
Favorable harvest conditions continue.
DJ U.S. Midwest Corn Weather - May 16
DJ - 20 mins ago
MIDWEST
SUMMARY- Dry conditions across the north with showers and a few
thundershowers
south and southwest, amounts 0.10-0.50 inch (3-13 mm) during the past
24 hours.
Temperatures 72-90F (22-32C) from northeast to southwest.
FORECASTTODAY... Dry conditions north and northeast with scattered showers
and
thundershowers, amounts 0.10-0.40 inch (3-10 mm) south and southwest.
Temperatures 74-83F (23-28C).
TONIGHT... Dry conditions north with showers across the south.
Temperatures
47-64F (8-18C).
TOMORROW... Dry conditions north and northeast with showers and a few
thundershowers across the south, amounts 0.10-0.40 inch (3-10 mm).
Temperatures
67-84F (19-29C).
OUTLOOK.... Showers and thunderstorms west and southwest with mostly
dry
weather east and southeast Saturday, partly cloudy with scattered
afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Temperatures above
normal
Saturday through Monday.
MIDWEST CORN PROSPECTS...
Dry weather and warming temperatures favor increased corn planting.
Planting progress remains well behind normal. Increasing episodes of
showers
and thunderstorms late this week into early next week will disrupt
planting
efforts. If wet weather continues some farmers may switch to soybeans.
DJ Brazil Corn Weather - May 16
DJ - 20 mins ago
PARANA AND RIO GRANDE DO SUL
SUMMARY- Dry northern Parana, with heavier showers observed from
southern
Parana through northern and central RGDS yesterday, amounts 0.20-1.25+
inches
(5-32+ mm). Temperatures 58-82F (14-28C).
FORECAST-
TODAY...Dry northern Parana. Scattered showers from southern Parana
to
northern RGDS, amounts 0.20-1.00+ inch (5-25+ mm). Temperatures 54-82F
(12-28C).
TONIGHT...Generally dry overnight. Temperatures 45-56F (7-13C).
TOMORROW...Drier most areas, save for a few scattered showers across
eastern
Parana and vicinity. Temperatures 54-82F (12-28C).
3-5 DAY OUTLOOK...Scattered showers redevelop in central and southern
areas
Saturday and Sunday, and shift mainly to eastern Parana Monday.
Temperatures
variable to cool in RGDS, but a bit milder in Parana.
BRAZIL CORN PROSPECTS...
Mostly favorable conditions for the winter corn crop through central
Brazil
although drier weather will have to be watched.
DJ e/cbot Grains/Oilseeds Futures Hourly Price Update
DJ - 10 mins ago
Last
Change
High
Settlement
Corn (cents/bu.)
May 13
706.75
Jul 13
650.75
Sep 13
563.5
Soybeans (cents/bu.)
May 13
1524.5
Jul 13
1412.75
Aug 13
1342
Soybean Oil (cents/lb.)
May13
49.26
Jul13
49.35
Aug13
49.13
Soybean Meal ($/ton)
May13
461
Jul13
410.5
Aug13
387.9
Low
Previous
707.00
+0.25
722.25
703.00
650.50
-0.25
650.75
648.75
563.00
-0.50
563.50
561.75
1524.75
+0.25
1545.00
1514.00
1418.00
+5.25
1419.25
1408.25
1347.50
+5.50
1348.00
1338.00
49.27
+0.01
49.57
49.27
49.53
+0.18
49.60
49.17
49.37
+0.24
49.38
48.96
460.10
-0.90
460.10
453.80
411.20
+0.70
411.60
408.80
389.00
+1.10
389.00
386.70
Wheat (cents/bu.)
May 13
701.5
Jul 13
693.75
(CBOT) Sep 2013
702.25
702.25
+0.75
706.50
700.75
695.75
+2.00
696.25
693.00
704.75
+2.50
704.75
701.75