NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE School of Business Department of Decision Sciences DSC2003 Management Science Lecturer : A/P Chou Fee Seng (Course Coordinator) Session : Semester II, 2007/08 Prerequisites Although there are no formal prerequisites, this module assumes prior knowledge of the following probability concepts: expected value, variance, conditional probability, Bayes’s Rule, Normal distribution, and Poisson distribution. Students must ensure that they are adequately prepared for this module. Course Objectives Management science makes use of analytical methods to distil intelligence for leaders' decision-making. Thus, this module is concerned with modelling and problem solving, and shall find applications in fields like finance, economics, operations management, logistics, and engineering. As an introductory module, we strive for breadth, giving an overview of several practical approaches, as well as sufficient depth, so as to provide a substantial feel for the discipline and a good foundation for further reading. Topics will include linear programming (including spreadsheet solution & sensitivity analysis), integer programming, network flow models, project management, decision analysis, and queuing models. Course Outline 1. Modelling business problems 2. Linear Programming formulation (including transportation model, multiperiod inventory models), graphical analysis, using the Solve, graphical sensitivity analysis of objective function coefficients and RHS constants, shadow prices, interpreting the Solver sensitivity report 3. Integer Programming LP vs ILP, LP relaxation, rounded solutions, binary variables, fixed charge problem, transhipment problem, assignment problem, Solver solution 4. Network Flow Models shortest route problem, minimum spanning tree problem, maximal flow problem 5. Project Management activity list, critical path, PERT, CPM, project crashing 6. Decision Analysis Part (a): decision making criteria (maximax, maximin, minimax regret, Hurwicz, Laplace), decision trees, expected value of perfect information, sequential decision trees, expected value of sample information. Part (b): utility theory, St Petersburg paradox, certainty equivalent, risk premium 7. Queueing Analysis exponential distribution; basic M/M/1 model, operating characteristics, steady-state results, Little’s Law, finite queue M/M/1/c, multiple server queue M/M/s, M/G/1 queue, simple economic analysis of queueing systems Main Text B. Taylor: Introduction to Management Science, 9th edition, Prentice Hall Reference Texts Render, Stair and Hanna: Quantitative Analysis for Management, 9th edition, Prentice-Hall, 2006 Anderson, Sweeney & Williams: An Introduction to Management Science, 11th edition, Thomson, 2005 Moore & Weatherford : Decision Modeling with Microsoft Excel, 6th edition, PrenticeHall, 2001 Other Information Weekly lectures of 2 hours each, and weekly tutorial sessions of 1 hour each. Although the course has a quantitative flavour, the mathematical requirements are quite modest. What is important is that you should be prepared to think analytically. For topics such as decision analysis and (especially) queueing analysis, you will need to be familiar with probabilistic concepts from a standard introductory course in probability or statistics. There are no formal computer programming requirements. However, basic proficiency with Microsoft Excel will be assumed.