INR 101 - LECTURE OUTLINE (23 Dec 2010)
DEMOCRACY AND ITS RECENT SURGE IN THE WORLD
Why democracy might be fragile?
Overpopulation
Ethnic/religious conflict
Poverty, economic crises
Chancy positions in world trade
Three Waves of Democratization
Post-WWI - Democratization in Germany, some in Eastern Europe, some in Latin America
Post-WWII – Re-Democratization in Germany, Italy. Democratization in Turkey, also in former
European colonies,
The `Third Wave` in 1980s and 1990s – Regional waves: Democratization in Spain, Portugal and
Greece in late 1970s, in Eastern Europe after the fall of the Iron Curtain and the dissolution of the Soviet
Union, also a number of states in Latin America.
Possible explanations of the `Third Wave`
Fatigue of some authoritarian regimes: Powerful dictators die, their prove irreplacable and their
regimes falter (Franco dies in Spain, Salazar in Portugal). Some states suffere losses of prestige
(Argentina loses the Falklands War against Britain, Greece loses in Cyprus, thir junta regimes fall), the
political system of some fails to sustain itself (Soviet Union is exhausted because of the efforts to keep
Eastern Europe under control)
International pressures: Nondemocratic systems suffer from continuous international pressures
to change and relax their regimes. (Spain, Portugal and Greece are enticed by the promise of European
Union membership, South Africa had to give in to international pressure to get rid of Apartheid)
People’s desire for human rights and secureity against abuse: Public pressure grows against the
oppressive regimes and the regime fails to contain the opposition (Eastern Europe after the Soviet
power recedes, also in Latin America)
People’s desire for economic development: When the authoritarian regimes fail to sustain
economic growth and provide its citizens with enough wealth, it becomes harder to contain opposition
(Eastern Europe falling far behind the West in the lst phae of the Cold War.)
Important lessons from the `Third Wave`
The importance of `Pacts` : Especiall in Latin America and Southern Europe (Spain, Portugal,
Greece) the democratizers formed “pacts” with those whom they are ousting from power. These pacts
ensured a smooth and succesful transition to democracy, by giving the ousted some insurances such as
amnesty from prosecution for crimes committed under the dictatorship. (O`Donnell and Schmitter)
Sudden changes in the inernation system are important: The collapse of the Cold War system
and the dissolution of the Soviet Union triggered big transdormation all over the globe, creating
opportunities for regime changes.
The existence of an economic crisis is important: If the transformation is spurred by an
economic crisis, the ruling authoritarian government has little control over the regime change when it
occurs. Pacts are less important in such conditions since the ousted has little to negotiate. If the
economic situation is relativey stable, the authoritarian regime has more to bargain with, and it must be
given incentives to leave power and allow a transformation.
Democracy and Freedom: Democracy and individual freedoms are certainly related, but they are
not identical. There are cases where idvivdual freedoms are relatively enhanched without triggering an
overall change of the authoritarian regime (China) . The opposite is also possible. Even in a democratic
country like the US, personal freedom was repressed from time to time (McCarthy era, `red scare` in
the US)
Democracy and Capitalism: Especially in Eastern Europe, democracy was seen as an important
factor behind economic development while authoritarianism was thought to hamper progress. Thus
when democratization occurred in former Eastern Bloc countries, it was accompanied with a rapid
spread of capitalism. Even states which did not democratize had to give way to some capitalist practices
to ensure economic development (China).