1.
2.
Reactions to Carothers in defense of the
paradigm.
Do we need a new paradigm? What would it
be?
1.
2.
If we should discard transition
paradigm, then what proposed to
replace it?
Countries that haven’t fully
democratized should still be measured
by how far they are along the path.
1.
2.
Specific institutional features of
regimes create particular patterns of
elite interactions.
These elite interactions  regular and
predictable cycles towards and away
from democracy/ autocracy.
Dominant in post-Soviet states.
Characteristics:




Directly elected president with strong formal powers.
Strong informal presidential power through patron-client
relations.
Dynamics:




When president perceived as lame duck, elite
contestation occurs.
At this stage masses can be active and influential in
choosing successor.
Contestation may remain for period after successor
chosen, but then elites fall in line again behind patron.
Necessary processes promoting
democratization (absence  dedemocratization)
1.
1.
2.
3.
Integration of formerly segregated trust networks
into public politics.
Minimization of categorical inequalities among
citizens, or at least separation of them from political
opportunity.
Reduction of autonomous power centers (e.g.
private armed groups, religious authorities, business
cartels).
1.
Dialectic between state ruling capacity and
democratization processes.
1. When state capacity expands faster than
democratization processes, regime passes through
authoritarianism (Carothers’ “dominant –power
regimes”);
2. When democratization outstrips state capacity,
risky zone where state cannot satisfy popular
demands (Carothers’ “feckless pluralist” regimes).
Do Hale or Tilly provide us with better ability to
understand, explain, or predict movement
towards or away from democracy? Or shall we
prefer to keep the transition paradigm?



Tim Klein, Producer/ Director of:
What are We Doing Here?: film critical of
development/ relief aid to Africa.
Please think for discussion about:
 What are similarities between development aid
and democratization aid?
 What are differences? Is democratic development
aid more or less effective?

Please see the film!
 12:00 April 5, Liu Institute Multipurpose Room