PUBLIC OPINION
I. Political participation in American politics comes in several forms.
A. According to the democratic ideal, "govt ought to be run by the people." So
participation in decision making by people is the expectation.
1. It should be the norm.
2. Yet, participation is often surprisingly limited or rare.
B. There are a variety of forms of political participation.
UNCONVENTIONAL PARTICIPATION involves relatively uncommon behavior that
threatens or defies traditional, conventional channels of expression and action.
1. Americans generally disapprove of unconventional political action involving
destruction of property or physical violence.
2. Unconventional participation has been successful in influencing government
decisions.
3. There is a long tradition of such unorthodox participation in America.
a) Boston Tea Party
b) Woman's Suffrage Movement
c) Civil Right demonstrations of the 1950s and 1960s.
d) The Anti-War demonstrations of the 1960s and early 1970s.
4. These kinds of activity involve a small portion of the population, but these gain
visibility for the issue.
5. Why might people choose unorthodox forms of political participation?
a) Traditional avenues may be closed to certain messages.
b) Some people may want to attract more attention than the traditional forms
of participation are likely to do.
c) The impact of traditional forms may not be what some people desire or
think is necessary to get their message across.
CONVENTIONAL PARTICIPATION is relatively routine, nonthreatening behavior,
that uses the channels of representative government to achieve objectives relating to
policy.
1. SUPPORTIVE BEHAVIORS are purely ceremonial acts expressing allegiance
to government and country.
2. INFLUENCING BEHAVIOR seeks to modify government policy.
3. Often these activities involve campaigns and party activities.
4. Contacting government officials, lobbying to influence or persuade decision
makers is also a frequent technique.
D. Participation varies a good deal. It is affected by:
1. Education. WHY? Education provides the knowledge upon which action is
focused. Educational pressure to be active
2. Income. WHY? The more income the easier it is to participate.
3. Occupation. WHY? This is not very determinative, but there are differences in
participation depending on the occupation one holds.
4. Gender. Gender differences in participation are disappearing these days.
5. Race. Black participation rates are lower, but these differences are not
significant when education and SES are considered.
II. Where and How do we learn our political beliefs? This is a life-long process, with different
agents.
An Exercise:
Fill out a 3X5 Card indicating what was the
very first time you remember thinking about
politics or political events?
What were the circumstances, with who
were you interacting?
Make sure the students indicate “thinking about” Politics. Most
students remember an event, not thinking about an issue or thinking
about the event.
A. Two principles emphasize the importance of early learning.
1. The PRIMACY principle states that what is learned first is learned best.
2. The STRUCTURING principle states that what is learned first structures later
learning.
B. Political Socialization  the learning of political values  begins in childhood.
1. Children show political interest by about ten years of age.
2. Most socialization derives from groups, such as family and then by classmates.
C. Young people gain some reverence for constitutional democracy.
D. The first, primary socializing agent is the FAMILY.
1. The family teaches basic attitudes, which shape opinions. These may be heavily
political or they may be non-political.
2. There is a high correlation between parent's and children's party identification,
particularly when both parents have the same party identification.
3. If parents disagree, then either the child may feel cross-pressure and NOT
choose any values, OR the child will favor the "closer" parent.
E. SCHOOLS have substantial impact on political attitudes.
1. Education enhances citizenship and civic orientation.
2. College students are more knowledgeable about politics than non-college
students
3. There are two socializing agents in school – teachers and classmates.
4. These two agents obviously interact much differently and provide much
different sets of information or values.
F. MASS MEDIA provides societal information and images of political behavior. These
contribute to socialization.
G. PEERS can provide powerful influences.
H. Adults continue to change or modify views, although the basic socialization imprints
of childhood may be largely fixed:
1. The basic values and attitudes are never lost entirely.
2. Childhood influences are still the most significant socialization mechanisms.
3. The adult impact might be referred to as "life's experiences."
I. Note that socialization is dependent on a large number of factors, and will vary greatly
from one individual to the next.
III. The Structure and Nature of Public Opinion. Public Opinion involves the population's
attitudes on an issue or question. Polls are taken by private actors and used heavily by these
private actors, e.g., marketing of consumer products.
A. The SHAPE of the distribution refers to the pattern or physical form of the responses
when counted and plotted. This is also known as the DISTRIBUTION of opinion.
1. The NORMAL distribution is symmetrically shaped (like a bell) around the
most frequent responses, called the MODE, as illustrated by the distributions of
attitudes on a liberal conservative continuum.
For Example:
Liberal Moderate Conservative spectrum
2. In a SKEWED distribution, most of the opinions cluster around a point on one
side of the issue, illustrated by American's support for capitalism. A skewed
distribution includes one short tale and one very long tail. The mode is not near
the center of the distribution.
For Example:
The legalization of drugs
3. In a BIMODAL distribution, opinions are divided sharply between two
opposing points on the issue  as illustrated by conflicting opinions toward letting
an admitted Communist teach in schools. There may be two modes in a bi-model
distribution. There are relatively few cases that call in the middle of the spectrum,
when the distribution is bi-model.
For Example:
Public’s view of abortion policy
B. The STABILITY of the distribution of opinion refers to the amount of change in the
MODAL category or in the shape of the distribution over time.
1. Some political attitudes change very little over time.
a. Americans' attitudes toward capitalism have not changed appreciably
since the 1940s.
b. Americans also show consistency in ideological orientations from 1964 to
1984  Americans today are only slightly more conservative than they were
when President Johnson launched his Great Society program of liberal
legislation.
2. However, political attitudes can change dramatically, as they have toward the
racial integration of public schools.
a. Events can change opinion  Pearl Harbor.
b. Circumstances or conditions (the environment) changes some opinions –
for example, people's view of their own economic circumstances reflect
their presidential approval rating. As their economic well-being changes so
will their view of the President. Also, people’s opinions about the War in
Iraq or the approval rating for the President change fairly quickly. They are
not permanent.
C. Some opinions are fundamental or nearly permanent, such as party identification.
Other opinions are quite changeable and they depend on the circumstances and the
specifics of the moment.
D. There are many publics with differing opinion sets. It is essential that one spend
some time considering what the POPULATION of interest is, in a particular discussion
of public opinion.
1. What public are we talking about when we refer to public opinion? Rarely is
“public opinion” related to the entire country, although some polling let’s that be
the “population.”
2. How do we know that we are accurately reporting public opinion? This
depends on the methods used to obtain the responses to the questions that we are
interested in polling.
E. There are a variety of characteristics of Public Opinion.
1. Intensity  the fervor over an issue will vary.
2. The latency  potentiality  of an opinion sets only rough boundaries or edges
in which leaders must operate.
3. The saliency  how issues relate to people's lives  will vary, and the more
salient issues are those that are the more immediate for people.
4. Consensus and Polarization  How extensive is the consensus on an issue?
 75% agreement = consensus.
 Polarized public reflects two "intense-feelings” on an issue.  "Polarized"
means some kid of a bimodal distribution of opinion.
5. The DIRECTION of opinion is also a major characteristic of opinion and an
important feature that needs to be assessed.
D. Polls help government officials make decisions.
IV. The Art and the Science of public opinion Polling
A. Statistical sampling theory and computer technology have made it possible to be
better informed about the distribution of the population's beliefs and attitudes about
politics and govt.
1. Modern survey research methodology allows national opinion to be estimated
within specified degrees of accuracy. No poll can be perfectly accurate, however.
2. The three main factors in the accuracy of a sample are.
a. The way the sample is selected, random sampling is needed to compute
sampling error.
b. The size of the sample, national samples of about 1,500 cases are accurate
within plus or minus three percentage points.
c. The amount of variation in the population, pollsters compute sampling
accuracy by assuming maximum variation in the populations.
B. Asking the "right" questions in the "right" way is essential to accurate polling.
1. Phrasing questions can "bias" the responses.
2. Variations include multiple choice/open-ended questions.
3. Interviewer's voice, appearance, youth, may yield poor results.
4. Asking the same (identical) question over time may be quite important to
developing directions, trends, and comparisons.
C. Interpreting the results:
1. No poll can claim 100% accuracy. How would it be possible to claim 100%
accuracy? Don’t take a sample, survey everyone!
2. Gallup Poll error in 1948
3. Candidates use polls to determine "where, how, or whether" to campaign.
4. Many polls which claim accuracy, are illegitimate frauds seeking to perpetrate
the viewpoint of the pollster and/or the client!
D. Government policies do run against majority opinion in many instances. That, makes
it harder to defend the U.S. Govt as democratic under the majoritarian view of
democratic.
1. Surveys show that citizens often prefer a different policy than what is followed
by the government.
2. To evaluate the role of public opinion in American government, we need to
know more about how opinions are distributed and how citizens acquire their
opinions.
3. Must public policy be reflective of public opinion? The answer to that question
may well be “no” in some circumstances.
4. When might public opinion be irrelevant for policy making? When opinion is
divided? When opinion is based on no information or incorrect information then
the validity of a poll may be greatly weakened.
5. Nothing requires that public opinions about policies or actions or events need
be based on factual information or careful analysis of the facts.
6. Given how we acquire many of our opinions – socialization of beliefs, and
gossip or inaccurate information provided by a source we trust – then cannot be
based on knowledge.
V. Voting and Electoral Patterns in America
A. According to the democratic ideal, "government ought to be run by the people."
1. In the model of direct democracy, citizens participate directly in govt affairs.
2. Indirect democracy relies on ELECTIONS  formal procedures for voting to
make group decisions  as the formal mechanism for citizen participation.
3. Voting in elections is a major form of political participation for Americans. It
may be the only acts some people engage in.
B. American Political History can be treated as the continual expansion of the
FRANCHISE.
1. The states were to restrict and control the franchise.
2. History has been related to the expansion of the right to vote to larger and larger
proportions of Americans.
C. Electoral procedures specify three rules for making collective decisions.
1. Who is allowed to vote;
2. How much each person's vote will count, of the weight of votes;
3. How many votes are needed to win the election, or the decision rule.
a. Majority
b. Plurality
c. Super-majority
D. The gradual elimination of property holding requirements expanded suffrage to all
white males by the 1850s.
1. Though long in coming, actions by the national govt. to enforce political
equality within the states dramatically increased registration by blacks.
a. Although the 15th Amendment to the Constitution gave blacks the right
to vote, southern states re-established restrictive registration requirements.
b. The Supreme Court decided, in 1944, that laws preventing blacks from
voting in primary elections were unconstitutional. So if the “real election”
occurred in the primary, in one-party states, blacks could not be excluded
from voting in those primary elections.
c. The Voting Rights Act of 1965 suspended, many of the remaining voting
tests which discriminated against blacks and other minorities.
2. Women had to fight long and hard to win the right to vote.
a. No woman had the right to vote until 1869 and then only is state
elections.
b. Pressured by the unconventional tactics of the suffragettes, twelve states
gave women the right to vote between 1869 and 1918.
c. The 20th Amendment to the Constitution, forbidding states to deny
women the right to vote was ratified in 1920.
3. Expansion of right to vote to 18 years olds through the 26th Amendment in
1971.
4. These three additions, blacks and other minorities, women, and young people,
were the primary points of franchise expansion.
D. Voting for candidates serves democratic governments in two ways.
1. It allows citizens to choose the candidates they think will best serve their
interests.
2. Elections make public officials accountable for their actions, if we assume that
citizens know the candidates and their offices.
VI. Continual features of voting patterns in the United States:
A. Sectional Voting
1. Democratic Voting in the South. This is not prevalent and “solid” in the past
decade. It is unlikely to ever be so solid again as it used to be. The Republican
Party has made fundamental changes in the old “solid south.”
2. Republican New England, is in conflict with blue-collar workers there.
However, those population segments included a number of Reagan Democrats and
they are declining in number as jobs move south. Yet, there are exceptions such as
Massachusetts, and sometimes Connecticut vote predominantly liberal or
Democratic. (So does Vermont.)
3. Republican voting in the West. This may not have been a solid trend, but it is
still prevalent, as conservatism and reactionary anti-govt politics pervade parts of
that region.
B. National Voting
1. States and sections of the country tend to follow national trends, at least
sometime.
2. For Example, FDR in 1932-36-40 and Eisenhower in 1952, sand Reagan and
Bush I in the 1980s.
C. There may be Similar Voting for Different offices  This is the COATTAIL effect.
D. Voting over time. There is a momentum or an inertia holding to the electoral status
quo.
1. These long-term trends may be disappearing, and being replaced by episodic,
temporary results, riddled with third-party candidates, anti-govt paranoia, and antiincumbent reactions.
2. Most elections have been Maintaining elections. This exhibits a persistence for
partisan support.
2. Deviating Elections are exceptions to maintaining. This happens when the
"out" party wins the election because of an attractive candidate or a specific issue.
3. Realigning Election occurs rarely. It is a basic and lengthy  permanent 
transformation of the party loyalties of voters, e.g., the 1930s.
4. Dealigning Elections seem to be occuring frequently at this time. These are
elections in which old, established electoral bases or coalitions do not hold for
some temporary or quite visible reason.
5. This framework is often called the CRITICAL election model. A crucial
election reflects a long-term re-orientation of voters’ preferences.
E. Economic conditions tend to initiate great political trends or changes in the status quo.
VII. Voting Behavior and Patterns in America
A. Voting turnout has declined in recent decades. WHY?
Except for voting turnout rates, which have declined over time, Americans
participate in politics about as much in the 1980s and the 1990s as they did in the
1960s.
1. Lowering the voting age from 21 to 18 in 1971 increased the pool of eligible
voters but they are the least likely to vote.
2. Before that adding women to the electorate, almost doubled the eligible voters,
but women did not turn out at the same rate as male voters, until modern times.
2. Studies have found that the belief in the efficacy of voting is declining among
all voters.
3. Lower-turnout groups tend to vote Democratic.
(However, in 1988, nonvoters apparently favored Bush I.)
4. Low turnout may not affect outcomes greatly, but it is certainly a measure of
dissatisfaction or lack of support for the political system.
B. The STANDARD SOCIOECONOMIC MODEL of participation suggests that people
with more education, higher incomes, and white-collar jobs are more likely to participate
in politics
1. Unconventional political behavior, however, is not related to higher
socioeconomic status.
2. Education is the strongest single predictor of participation.
C. Low voting turnout in the U.S. can be attributed to several possible reasons:
1. Voting laws and election procedures do not encourage voting in the U.S.
a There are no election holidays in America, although that is the case in
many countries.
b The burden of registration is placed on the individual, and that screens out
some voters.
c. Requiring picture ID, which is the law in several states, including
Indiana, may discourage or deter some voters. There is not much evidence
of that discouraging effect.
2. Political parties fail to mobilize voters because of weak party-group linkages
3. Inadequate information about a large number of candidates and offices
discourages people from voting.
D. Explaining Voting Behavior:
1. Partisan Identification  a long-term influence.
a. Party ID is learned early in life generally from Parents through the
socialization process. That process is breaking down, being performed
irregularly, overtaken by exogenous factors and momentary influences.
b. Party ID is declining in significance, to the point that Independents
constitute fully one-third of the voting population. Why?
N.B. Most textbooks have a graph indicating the proportion of people who
claim to be Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. These proportions
have not dramatically changed over the last fifty years.
Political parties used to provide valuable benefits to loyalists – patronage
jobs, food baskets, and the like. Those are not present in many political
settings today.
c. Party ID is a short-hand decision calculus that makes voting decisions
easy to arrive at for many of us. You just vote for the party's nominee.
However, nowadays, with more and more sources of information (the
expansion of the media) more voters may not rely on the party label, but
think they can decide on the basis of information.
2. Candidate Orientation  This is a short-term influence.
a. This the supposed "Quayle factor." Candidate image will sway some
people to vote for a particular individual at a particular time. Candidate
image may have influenced some people to vote for Bush II in 2004.
1) This may be “good looks.”
2) It may have to do with a complex of candidate characteristics:
 age
 race
 gender
 style
3) It may be the result of people who are not interested in parties or
issue, but are struck by candidate characteristics. Ross Perot was an
example of that.
b. This is often translated into "I vote for the man, not the party."
c. It certainly interrupts the party ID voting decision, and candidate image
seems more a factor at some times than others and in various elections.
d. Since 1964, candidate image seems to have aided Republican Presidential
candidate more than Democratic.
3. Issue Salience  this influence fluctuates greatly.
a. Candidates are reluctant to take clear positions on issues for fear of
alienating some supporters. E.g. Mondale's tax increase in the 1984
Presidential election campaign was honest but it cost him severely among
some voters, who opposed tax increases.
b. People who are interested in issues are either:
1) Many of these voters are single issue voters  abortion, gun
control, or the deficit, or the like. They select the candidate with the
“correct” position on the single issue.
2) These kinds of voters may be willing to invest a tremendous
amount of effort  energy and time  discovering candidate issues
stands and then choosing.
c. The influence of issues varies with conditions (e.g. the economy or a war)
and candidates.
d. Issue influence depends on
1) Voter knowledge and understanding of the issues.
2) Candidates must be distinguishable on issue positions.
3) Voters must “see” candidate positions as connected or related to
their own positions.
e. Issue voting tends to be largely a referendum on the incumbent's
performance.
E. One must note the incredible benefit that incumbents generally have from being in
office. Pay close attention to the incumbent effect, and be sure to examine the 1996
election results for the House and the Senate.
VIII. Summary
We can better understand participation by means of two models of democracy. These provide
different ways of looking at voting and elections. Neither empirical theory is true or correct,
but there is evidence to support each of these, and there is some contrary evidence.
A. The MAJORITARIAN MODEL of democracy favors collective decisions formalized
through elections over private influence on government.
B. The PLURALIST MODEL of democracy favors a decentralized and organizationally
complex form of government; it encourages forms of conventional participation other
than voting – lobbying, campaign contributions.
IX. Other forms of Political Participation
A. Most other kinds of participation (other than voting) take more commitment or
activity and interest than voting, and most people do NOT participate at these highest
levels.
B. These alternatives also COST people more money, time, and other resources.
C. These may or may not be effective in influencing.
D. Contributing to campaigns with time or money.
E. Seeking to influence specific policy decisions directly.
1. Writing letters to policy makers
2. Demonstrating or organizing campaigns for policy adoption or prevention.
3. Formal or informal lobbying in the halls of Congress.
4. Testifying before Congress to build support and provide information. This may
be like “Public Relations” kinds of work.
5. (Campaign contributions can be related to this level of political participation.)
6. The extreme form of this kind of electoral activity (campaigning for candidates
or contributing to their campaigns) is the formation of a PAC or making
contributions to a PAC which will then channel those funds to the “right”
candidates.
F. Seeking and/or obtaining appointed positions in govt, from which administrative
decisions or choices can help one’s interest.
G. Running for office/winning elected office.