A Study for the Improvement of Ice Cream Cake Sales in SALT LAKE COUNTY UTAH STRONWIN CONSULTING November 2005 STRONWIN CONSULTING Table of Contents Preliminaries Letter of Completion ..............................................................................................................3 Engagement Letter .................................................................................................................4 Executive Summary ...............................................................................................................8 Introduction Purpose .................................................................................................................................12 Procedures ............................................................................................................................12 Delimitations and Scope ......................................................................................................13 Limitations............................................................................................................................13 Background ..........................................................................................................................14 Research Objectives ..............................................................................................................................16 Methodology .........................................................................................................................16 Findings and Analysis .........................................................................................................19 Survey Results ......................................................................................................20 Strong Correlation Findings ...............................................................................49 Weak Correlation Findings ................................................................................53 Significant Association Findings ........................................................................61 Findings Other………………………………………………………………… 66 Conclusions & Recommendations Conclusions ..........................................................................................................................70 Recommendations ................................................................................................................72 Appendices Appendix A: Focus Groups Transcripts .............................................................................74 Appendix B: Questionnaire .................................................................................................79 Appendix C: Cross Tabulation: Significant Associations for Further Study ....................82 Appendix D: Unclear correlations ....................................................................................124 Appendix E: Recommendation Justification ....................................................................137 Appendix F: Margin of Error............................................................................................140 Appendix G: Sample Size Calculation ..............................................................................142 Appendix H: Table of Association & Correlation ............................................................144 Appendix I: Z-tests .............................................................................................................146 1 STRONWIN CONSULTING Preliminaries 2 STRONWIN CONSULTING Letter of Completion November 14, 2005 Brad Nielsen, Director of Creamery Operations-Utah Creamery Headquarters 9311 E. Via De Ventura Scottsdale, AZ 85258 Dear Mr. Nielsen: We are pleased to submit to you our completed market research project. We have thoroughly sought to identify the effectiveness of frozen cake sales in the Salt Lake County demographics. We are confident that our project and report will meet your expectations, and we hope that our findings and recommendations will be useful to Cold Stone Creamery in increasing revenue and profit. The following report contains the results of the research and includes the following: Introduction to the Project Research Objectives Methodology Findings Analysis of the Findings Conclusions Recommendations This research study has been conducted as accurately as possible, with every effort taken to reduce possible errors. Our team enjoyed this experience and values it as a very important part of our education. We appreciate all the time and support you have given to this project, and we hope you continue to use BYU marketing students in the future. Sincerely, STRONWIN CONSULTING Jess Arrington Otto Stronach Shill, IV 3 STRONWIN CONSULTING Engagement Letter October 5, 2005 Brad Nielsen, Director of Creamery Operations-Utah Creamery Headquarters 9311 E. Via De Ventura Scottsdale, AZ 85258 Dear Mr. Nielsen: Thank you for the opportunity to speak with you concerning the current marketing situation of Cold Stone Creamery’s frozen cake unit. We look forward to working with you as we study and survey Utah residents over the next several weeks. We have provided this letter as a means to inform you of our plans in carrying out the project, as well as to put both our expectations in writing. Background The combination of ice cream and cake is one many Americans have enjoyed at an early age. Ice cream cakes have long been a special part of celebrating from birthday parties and office parties to baby showers and bridal showers. Cold Stone has revolutionized ice cream cakes by quality, freshness, and innovation, which reflects the company's overall image. Cold Stone’s ice cream cakes became available nationwide April 17, 2004. Cold Stone combines the very best of ice cream and cake by layers of moist cake and the highest quality ice cream, wrapped in fluffy white frosting or rich, fudge ganache. And greatest of all, you can customize your own cake and ice cream combination, which is the true Cold Stone fashion! Cold Stone Creamery ice cream cakes average around $27 for a large round. Cakes are available in medium, large, and rectangular sizes, along with creatively designed cakes specifically for children. However, sales have not been as high as hoped in Salt Lake County. The purpose of this study is to find out why. Our hypothesis is that most consumers are not aware of Cold Stone’s ice cream cakes. Objectives The market study will provide data about why people do not buy ice cream cakes at Cold Stone. Our hypothesis is that they do not do so because they are unaware of the availability of said product. Our research will also show what amount of cake sales Cold Stone could expect if 100% market awareness were achieved. Additionally, we will perform taste-test comparisons with leading competitors to find out what customer preferences are and in what areas Cold Stone 4 STRONWIN CONSULTING can improve its cake business. We will also make recommendations about how to inform the community of this product. Schedule Our planned approach and time frame consists of the following four phases: Phase 1: Information Gathering During this phase we will conduct focus groups with random Utah residents to gather as much information as we can about Utah residents’ awareness and product preferences. We will find out residents’ opinions of Cold Stone’s ice cream and cakes. The focus group sessions will be taped for your review. Phase 2: Questionnaire Design and Administration Using the information we collect in phase one, we will design a questionnaire to survey a larger portion of the Utah population. The questionnaire will focus on specifics, provide a large amount of qualitative data, and provide the foundations for estimated distribution with 100% market information of product availability. Phase 3: Analysis During this phase we will calculate the results of the questionnaire and organize the data. The data will then be subjected to rigorous statistical testing to ensure the data is statistically significant. We will then analyze the data to look for important conclusions and relationships. Phase 4: Delivery The findings, analysis, and final recommendations will be submitted to Cold Stone Creamery during an in-class presentation on November 14, 2005, at 3:30 p.m. The presentation will include visual aids and will be open to questions. The project will officially conclude with this formal oral and written report to be presented by Stronwin Consulting to Cold Stone Creamery management. Deliverables Two copies of the final written report will be delivered at the time of the final presentation; both these copies will then become the property of Cold Stone Creamery. We will also provide a hard copy of our PowerPoint presentation. All aforementioned articles will also be provided in electronic format. 5 STRONWIN CONSULTING Roles of Research Team and Client Stronwin Consulting intends to deliver information that is reliable, representative, and credible to help Cold Stone Creamery determine how to develop its cake division and increase division sales. Stronwin Consulting is a partnership of Jess Arrington and Otto Shill. Our entire research project will be under the supervision of Dr. Michael D. Geurts, marketing professor at the BYU Marriott School of Management. Status reports and most communications between our research team and Cold Stone Creamery will be through Brad Nielsen, director of creamery operations for Utah. Disclaimer and Confidentiality The signers of this engagement letter are responsible for the preparation of a report to Cold Stone Creamery. The information gathered will be information believed to be accurate and from reliable sources, but its accuracy and reliability cannot be guaranteed. Brigham Young University, its boards, employees, students, and the Marriott School of Management are not responsible for the work and research conducted under this study or for the resulting recommendations. Cold Stone Creamery, its employees, franchisees, directors, and board agree to hold harmless the Marriott School of Management, its faculty and administration, and the students preparing the report for work relating to this project, for the resulting information and recommendations, and for any implementation of the recommendations. Upon completion of the study, the findings and the recommendations of the project will become the sole property of Cold Stone Creamery. The Marriott School of Management maintains the right to retain up to ten copies of the final report for later educational purposes. The signers of this document agree that private and sensitive information obtained as a result of this study relating to Cold Stone Creamery will not be disclosed to parties unrelated to this study without Cold Stone Creamery’s prior written approval. Status reporting Every week prior to the completion of the project and its final presentation on November 14, 2005, the research team will be reporting to Brad Nielsen on the progress. Fees Our base fee will be negotiated along with the other project this semester at another time. All necessary monetary expenditures to bring this project to its final completion will be paid by Cold Stone Creamery. These include but are not limited to the following: 6 STRONWIN CONSULTING Focus group and survey participant incentives (100 gift certificates) Audio or video recording costs of the focus groups (4 groups, 30 minutes each) Survey photocopying costs (up to 3 pages per survey, 500 copies) Printing, binding, and copying of the final project report (to be determined) Presentation costs as defined by the class (Cold Stone Creamery will provide lunch for approximately 15 students in our class on the day of the presentation) We look forward to working with you on this important endeavor. Please sign below, evidencing your agreement to and approval of the terms of this engagement letter. An original signed copy of this letter should then be returned to Dr. Michael Geurts at the following address: Michael Geurts Brigham Young University 692 TNRB Provo, UT 84602 Sincerely, Jess Arrington (801) 318-2593 jesser@byu.net Otto Stronach Shill, IV (801) 310-9484 oshill@byu.edu Michael D. Geurts (801) 422-2398 mdg2@email.byu.edu Accepted by: Brad Nielsen Director of Creamery Operations, Utah Date 7 STRONWIN CONSULTING Executive Summary Jess Arrington and Otto Shill (hereafter referred to as Stronwin Consulting) conducted a research project for Cold Stone Creamery to help the company develop a strategy to increase ice cream cake sales in Salt Lake County. After meeting with Brad Nielsen, the director of creamery operations for Utah, Stronwin Consulting determined the basic objectives of the project to be to determine the following for Salt Lake County: How Cold Stone Creamery can improve the sale of ice cream cakes An appropriate price range for Cold Stone ice cream cakes The factors of greatest import in the ice cream cake buying decision Focus Groups. Our first goal was to understand customers’ basic perceptions of Cold Stone Creamery, their knowledge of the Cold Stone ice cream cake product line, and their needs and preferences when buying ice cream cakes. Stronwin Consulting conducted two focus groups to this end. Focus Group 1. The first focus group gave us an idea of where to start with the project and survey design. We found that several things were important to these focus group participants. We added many of these items to our survey for statistical testing: Cold Stone was unknown as an ice cream cake maker Cold Stone charges more than the focus group expected They buy cakes for up to 15 people on average They know Baskin-Robbins sells cakes because of its display models Coupons are the preferred method of advertising Cold Stone has a competitive advantage by letting consumers choose the flavor of ice cream and the mix-ins for their cakes Along with customizing, Cold Stone should provide decorations for sale in the store Samples Focus Group 2. We learned from this group several things that helped us fine tune our survey. Some of their comments that we used to form the survey are: Location is key (close by) This group was not price sensitive Cold Stone is not recognized as a maker of ice cream cakes Baskin-Robbins and Dairy Queen are well known because of the packaging Cakes are well visible in Baskin-Robbins and Dairy Queen Baskin-Robbins and Dairy Queen always have a full cake freezer Cold Stone is priced well for their expectations Television or coupons are a good form of advertising Make cakes more visible in store, a creation board? Flip-through books 8 STRONWIN CONSULTING Samples Table advertisements Reposition freezer Survey. Stronwin Consulting used the information gathered in the focus groups to create a survey to administer to residents of Salt Lake County. Mr. Nielsen wanted to target all consumers in Salt Lake County; therefore, we decided to administer the survey by mail so as to get a random, representative sample. However, after viewing the potential expenses involved, we decided that administering the surveys by mail would not be cost effective. As a result, we administered the survey by telephone to Salt Lake County residents. The questions in our survey were focused on understanding if people were regular customers at Cold Stone Creamery or another ice cream parlor, their ice cream eating habits, their ice cream cake buying habits, and what is important to them when they buy an ice cream cake. Also, we asked them to tell us what they would expect to pay for an ice cream cake and tell us where they were most likely to buy their next ice cream cake. Our most important findings were the following: On average, consumers expect to pay $20.25 for an ice cream cake that serves 16 people— Cold Stone is over priced, more than 74% higher than some competitors. On average, consumers are unlikely to buy their next ice cream cake from Cold Stone Creamery. The purchase of ice cream cakes is twice as correlated with frequenting Baskin-Robbins as with frequenting Cold Stone Creamery. 75% of consumers would or do buy ice cream cakes for birthday parties. On average, taste is very important (6.19/7) to consumers. On average, price is important (5/7) to consumers. On average, distance from the consumer is important (4.8/7). On average, consumers are willing to pay a 10% premium for taste (5.4/7), closeness to vendor (4.96/7), and when the event is more important (5.52/7). On average, consumers are willing (4.78/7) to pay a 10% premium for more customization options. The level of importance given to customization is positively correlated with a consumer’s willingness to pay more for better customization options. Our key recommendations are as follows: Cold Stone Creamery should lower the overall price of ice cream cakes to be closer to competitors’ prices Cold Stone needs to take the following steps to increase awareness of its ice cream cake line: o Advertise in some way, either with direct mail coupons, media or print advertising. 9 STRONWIN CONSULTING o Reorient the stores so that the ice cream freezer is in the direct line of sight when consumers walk in the door. o Provide a flip book of ice cream cakes on a stand that consumers can leaf while in line. o Increase the visibility of the signs in the store. Make the cake creation board similar to that for ice cream. o Offer samples of ice cream cakes more often. o Sell a prepackaged product out of the freezers that will attract children, such as the Dilly Bars ® at Dairy Queen. Coupon discounts should be targeted toward those who live closer to another maker of ice cream cakes than to Cold Stone because consumers are willing to pay a 10% premium in order to buy from a vendor that is closer to them. Target ice cream cake marketing to birthday parties. Exploit the premium taste of Cold Stone ice cream. Cold Stone should add sample cakes for more important events such as weddings, baptisms, bar mitzvah, etc. to the flip book in addition to birthday and standard cakes. 10 STRONWIN CONSULTING Introduction 11 STRONWIN CONSULTING Purpose The purpose of this research project is to improve the sales of ice cream cakes in the Salt Lake County Cold Stone Creamery locations. The questions that we will answer follow: 1. How aware are residents of Salt Lake County that Cold Stone Creamery makes and sells ice cream cakes? 2. How likely are Salt Lake County consumers to buy their next ice cream cake from Cold Stone Creamery? 3. Why do people buy ice cream cakes? 4. How important are price, taste, visual appeal, distance to the vendor, and the ability to customize to consumers considering the purchase of an ice cream cake? 5. How much are people willing to pay for an ice cream cake? 6. How willing are consumers to pay a 10% increase in price for a premium ice cream cake with better taste and visual appeal from Cold Stone? Answering these questions will help uncover how Cold Stone can increase the sales of ice cream cakes. Procedures Stronwin Consulting followed several steps during the course of the project to ensure accuracy. Below is a list of the procedures that we followed: Preliminary Steps Meet with Brad Nielsen to understand the client needs and define the target market Formulate objectives that the project seeks to meet Pre-Survey Steps Conduct a focus group to understand consumer needs and preferences Create a survey using the results of the focus group so that we can establish statistical significance and make appropriate recommendations Determine when, where, and how to conduct the survey For sample size calculation See Appendix G Survey Steps Recruit telephone representatives Administer the survey Compile the results of the survey 12 STRONWIN CONSULTING Post-Survey Analysis Analyze the results of the survey to fulfill the objectives of the survey and find other associations and correlations of interest Form conclusions that directly fulfill the objectives and answer all pre-project questions Use the data, focus groups, and conclusions to form well-grounded recommendations on how Cold Stone Creamery can improve ice cream cake sales in Salt Lake County Present our findings along with our recommendations to Brad Nielsen, other Cold Stone Creamery representatives, and Dr. Geurts’s Business Management 442 class in an oral presentation and in written form vis-à-vis this report. Delimitations and Scope The scope of this report is limited to determining an effective marketing campaign only for Salt Lake County. The survey was administered only to residents of Salt Lake County. Therefore, the results of this study should not be used as the sole resource in preparing a marketing campaign to increase the sale of ice cream cakes in other markets. We chose to use telephone surveys in addition to the focus groups because mail was cost prohibitive. Many other methods were available to us, but because of cost and time involvement we decided that telephone surveys were the best method for this project. We consulted with marketing professionals before we used these survey methods. In addition, the survey that we administered was reviewed and approved by two marketing professionals before being administered. Limitations Frame Error. Purchasing a phone list was cost prohibitive; therefore, we randomly selected phone numbers out of the phone book. We did so using Microsoft Excel® to generate the page, column, and line numbers randomly. Then we looked these numbers up in the most recent edition of the Quest Dex White Pages telephone directory for Salt Lake County. This causes a frame error for two reasons: (1) some phone numbers are unlisted (both unlisted by request and cellular phone numbers), (2) not everyone has a telephone, members of the same household usually share a phone, and (3) some phone numbers take up two lines in the phone book, so they have a better chance of being selected. We controlled for the fourth cause of frame error by alternating between the above and below selection when the line selected did not have a listed telephone number. The frame error has the effect of preventing a truly random sample. Non-response Error. The telephone representatives found that between 5% and 10% of the people who we called answered their phones. Of those who answered the phone, only about 50% completed the entire survey. Non-response error also occurred when respondents refused to continue in the middle of the survey or refused to answer questions such as their income level. We controlled for the 13 STRONWIN CONSULTING incomplete surveys by throwing them out and for the respondents not answering the income question by substituting the average for their income as per the instructions of a marketing professional. Response Error. There is a possibility that respondents lied to us while taking the survey or that they did not understand a question, but pretended to understand and guessed at the answer. Validity Error. Validity error occurs when we ask for the respondents’ annual income. Although there is validity in understanding the relationships that income has with the other variables, this question is typically asked to understand buying power. Income does not accurately measure buying power. Someone with a high income may have high debt or alimony payments that reduce his or her buying power, while a lower-income, debt-free person may have equivalent or greater buying power than the aforementioned person. Background The combination of ice cream and cake is one many Americans have enjoyed at an early age. Ice cream cakes have long been a special part of celebrating from birthday parties and office parties to baby showers and bridal showers. Cold Stone has revolutionized ice cream cakes by quality, freshness, and innovation, which reflects the company's overall image. Cold Stone’s ice cream cakes became available nationwide April 17, 2004. Cold Stone combines the very best of ice cream and cake by layers of moist cake and the highest quality ice cream, wrapped in fluffy white frosting or rich, fudge ganache. And greatest of all, you can customize your own cake and ice cream combination, which is the true Cold Stone fashion! Cold Stone Creamery ice cream cakes average around $27 for a large round. Cakes are available in medium, large, and rectangular sizes along with creatively designed cakes specifically for children. However, sales have not been as high as hoped in Salt Lake County. The purpose of this study is to find out why. 14 STRONWIN CONSULTING Research 15 STRONWIN CONSULTING Objectives THE MAIN OBJECTIVE – to understand why Cold Stone Creamery ice cream cake sales are low in Salt Lake County and make recommendations to improve said sales. SECONDARY OBJECTIVES – As secondary objectives, we will gather other market information that will assist Cold Stone Creamery in understanding its target market and informing and selling to said market. These objectives are detailed in the purpose section of this report. Most of the secondary objectives pertain directly to our project; however, the variables used to achieve our secondary objectives can also be useful outside of the context of the project as well. Methodology Understanding the Client’s Needs The first step in this research project was to understand the needs of our client. We met with Brad Nielsen, director of creamery operations for Utah, to better understand his needs. After the meeting we understood that Mr. Nielsen wanted to understand why Cold Stone Creamery ice cream cakes do not sell very well and how Cold Stone Creamery can increase the sale of ice cream cakes. Mr. Nielsen defined the target market to be Salt Lake County. In order to understand why Cold Stone Creamery ice cream cake sales are low, we first pondered and investigated the answers to the following questions that are also listed in the purpose section of this report: How aware are residents of Salt Lake City that Cold Stone Creamery makes and sells ice cream cakes? How likely are Salt Lake County consumers to buy their next ice cream cake from Cold Stone Creamery? Why do people buy ice cream cakes? How important are price, taste, visual appeal, distance to the vendor, and the ability to customize to consumers considering the purchase of an ice cream cake? How much are people willing to pay for an ice cream cake? How willing are consumers to pay a 10% premium for cakes with better taste, visual appeal, more for a premium ice cream cake from Cold Stone? We felt that by understanding the answers to these questions we would be able to understand how Cold Stone Creamery can increase the sale of ice cream cakes in Salt Lake County. 16 STRONWIN CONSULTING The Focus Groups Our focus groups were designed to help us understand what factors were most important to consumers when considering the purchase of an ice cream cake. We conducted two focus groups from distinct economic groups so as to ensure a more accurate representation of consumers in Salt Lake County. Each participant of the focus groups received two gift certificates for a free ice cream creation at Cold Stone Creamery. During our focus groups, we discussed the reasons that consumers buy ice cream cakes, what features they most appreciate about the cakes, what price they are willing to pay for an ice cream cake, their personal awareness of Cold Stone Creamery ice cream cakes, and the participants’ personal recommendations to Cold Stone Creamery on how to improve customer awareness of Cold Stone Creamery ice cream cakes. Our focus groups indicated to us that the five most important factors they considered when purchasing an ice cream cake are price, taste, visual appeal, the ability to customize the cake, and the distance to the vendor. Additionally, they raised the question of whether Cold Stone Creamery is overpriced. The participants gave us a variety of reasons for which a consumer would purchase an ice cream cake. Each focus group lasted about an hour. The Questionnaire Design The focus groups helped us understand the key concepts in the purchase of an ice cream cake. We originally designed our survey to be mailed out to people. As a part of that survey, we asked consumers their taste preferences among the ice cream cake brands that they had tried in the past. We also planned on conducting a blind taste test to find out how Cold Stone Creamery compared to other brands in perceived quality. However, Mr. Nielsen asked Stronwin Consulting to refrain from giving competitor products to consumers. In response to this request, we redesigned the survey and decided against conducting a blind taste test. To this point, all of our surveys had been designed to be administered by U.S. mail. However, Mr. Nielsen felt that the cost of a mail survey would be prohibitive. In response, we redesigned the survey to be administered by telephone. We allowed for free responses and categorized the answers after the survey had been administered. The surveys were administered using the telephones in the Marriott School of Management Career Center. Calling Salt Lake County required long distance phone calls, so at the request of Mr. Nielsen, the BYU Field Studies Office accrued and paid for all long distance charges. Analysis We analyzed the collected data in SPSS statistical software. All categorical data was analyzed using cross-tabulation and chi-squared statistics. The interval data was analyzed using correlation and 17 STRONWIN CONSULTING regression. When both interval and categorical data were analyzed together, cross-tabulation and chisquared statistics were used. 18 STRONWIN CONSULTING Findings and Analysis 19 STRONWIN CONSULTING Survey Results NOTE: The following tables show the results of the survey, showing the number of responses we got for each category, along with the percentage of the total results. Please note that although we have given interpretations of the answers 1 through 7, we administered the survey on a scale of 1 to 7. The interpretations are only for the convenience of the reader. The percentages in these tables were found to have a margin of error of +/- 4%, statistically significant to a 95% level of confidence. In other words, if this survey were repeated numerous times, 95% of the time the results would be within 4% of the results given here. 20 STRONWIN CONSULTING Survey Results Question 1: How long has it been since you ate ice cream at an ice cream parlor like Baskin-Robbins, Cold Stone, or Dairy Queen? Response Less than 1 Week 1 Week to 1 Month 1 to 2 Months 3 Months to 4 Months 5 to 6 Months 7 to 8 Months 9 to 10 Months 10 Months to a Year 1 Year + Count 12 17 19 Percent 11.0% 15.7% 17.6% 13 14 1 0 14 18 12.0% 13.0% 1.0% 0.0% 13.0% 16.7% Q.1 Number of Respondents 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Less than 1 Week 1Week to 1 M o nth 1to 2 M o nths 3 to 4 M o nths 5 to 6 M o nths 7 to 8 M o nths 9 to 10 M o nths 10 M o nths to a Year 1Year + How Long has it Been Since You Ate Ice Cream at an Ice Cream Parlor? Q.1 shows how long it has been since survey respondents last ate ice cream at an ice cream parlor. More than half of respondents have eaten ice cream at an ice cream parlor within the last 4 months. 21 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 2: How often do you eat ice cream at an ice cream parlor like Baskin-Robbins, Cold Stone, or Dairy Queen? Response Weekly or More 2 Times per Month Monthly 6 Times per Year 4 Times per Year 2 Times per Year 1 Time a Year Count 9 5 15 3 15 26 35 Percent 8.3% 4.6% 13.9% 2.8% 13.9% 24.1% 32.4% Q.2 Number of Respondents 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Weekly o r M o re 2 Times per M o nth M o nthly 6 Times per Year 4 Times per Year 2 Times per Year 1Time a Year How Often do You Eat Ice Cream at an Ice Cream Parlor? Q.2 shows how frequently respondents eat at an ice cream parlor. More than 70% of respondents eat ice cream at an ice cream parlor four times per year or less. 22 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 3: How long has it been since you ate pre-packaged ice cream? Response Less than 1 Week 1 Week to 1 Month 1 to 2 Months 3 Months to 4 Months 5 to 6 Months 7 to 8 Months 9 to 10 Months 10 Months to a Year 1 Year + Count 34 36 21 Percent 31.5% 33.3% 19.4% 5 6 0 0 1 5 4.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 4.6% Q.3 Number of Respondents 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Less than 1 Week 1Week to 1 M o nth 1to 2 M o nths 3 to 4 M o nths 5 to 6 M o nths 7 to 8 M o nths 9 to 10 M o nths 10 M o nths to a Year 1Year + How Long has it Been Since You Ate Pre-packaged Ice Cream? Q.3 confirms that ice cream is a true American treat. Most respondents had eaten ice cream within the last two months. Likely, ice cream is consumed more frequently at home because of its lower cost and added convenience. 23 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 4: How often do you eat pre-packaged ice cream? Response Weekly or More 2 Times per Month Monthly 6 Times per Year 4 Times per Year 2 Times per Year 1 Time a Year Count 35 16 21 4 13 8 11 Percent 32.4% 14.8% 19.4% 3.7% 12.0% 7.4% 10.2% Q.4 Number of Respondents 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Weekly o r M o re 2 Times per M o nth M o nthly 6 Times per Year 4 Times per Year 2 Times per Year 1Time a Year How Often do You Eat Pre-packaged Ice Cream? Q.4 shows that most people in the target market consume pre-packaged ice cream frequently, with far more than half doing so at least monthly. 24 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 5: How many times a year do you eat at Baskin-Robbins? Response Count 57 29 12 5 4 1 0 1 to 2 3 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 26 27+ Percent 52.8% 26.9% 11.1% 4.6% 3.7% 0.9% Q.5 Number of Respondents 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 to 2 3 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 26 27+ How Many Times a Year Do You Eat at Baskin Robbins? Q.5 shows the number of times consumers of the Salt Lake County market eat at Baskin-Robbins in a year. Other things that we learn from this data are: Average 2.7 visits per year Most visits per year 100 25 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 6: How many times a year do you eat at Dairy Queen? Response 0 1 to 2 3 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 26 27+ Count 61 22 17 6 2 0 Percent 56.5% 20.4% 15.7% 5.6% 1.9% 0.0% Q.6 Number of Respondents 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 to 2 3 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 26 27+ How Many Times a Year Do You Eat at Dairy Queen? Q.6 shows the number of times consumers of the Salt Lake County market eat at Dairy Queen in a year. Other things that we learn from this data are: Average 1.6 visits per year Most visits per year 15 26 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 7: How many times a year do you eat at Cold Stone Creamery? Response 0 1 to 2 3 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 26 27+ Count 59 35 6 2 5 1 Percent 54.6% 32.4% 5.6% 1.9% 4.6% 0.9% Q.7 Number of Respondents 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 to 2 3 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 26 27+ How Many Times a Year Do You Eat at Cold Stone Creamery? Q.6 shows the number of times consumers of the Salt Lake County market eat at Cold Stone Creamery in a year. Other things that we learn from this data are: Average 2.3 visits per year Most visits per year 80 27 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 8: How many times a year do you purchase ice cream cakes? Response 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7+ Count 74 19 10 2 1 1 0 1 Percent 68.5% 17.6% 9.3% 1.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 4 5 Q.8 Number of Respondents 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 6 7+ How Many Times a Year Do You Purchase Ice Cream Cakes? Q. 8 shows that for the most part people do not purchase ice cream cakes. These results are of interest because we wanted to know what percentage of the population purchase ice cream cakes. Our research shows that approximately 30% of the population has purchased ice cream cakes in the past year. Also, later we will discuss correlations that we found between this and other variables. On average, the population purchases 0.59 cakes per person. However, among those who purchase ice cream cakes, 1.94 cakes are purchased per capita. 28 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 9: For what events do you buy ice cream cakes? Response Birthday Party Holiday Father's Day Mother's Day Family Visit 1st Kiss 2nd Kiss Valentines Day Graduation Engagement Anniversary Bar mitzvah Special Occasion Fun Self Count 81 13 6 4 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 Percent 75.0% 12.0% 5.6% 3.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.9% 0.9% Se lf Bi Fu n 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 rth da y Pa rty Ho Fa li th d ay er 's M D ot he ay r 's D Fa ay m ily Vi s 1s it tK iss Va 2n d le Ki nt in ss es D G ay ra du En a ga tion ge An men ni t ve rs Sp Ba ary rm ec it ia l O zka cc as io n Number of Respondents Q.9 For What Events Do You Buy Ice Cream Cakes? Q.9 shows the events for which people buy ice cream cakes. The majority of respondents would purchase an ice cream cake for a birthday party. Therefore, we recommend that Cold Stone target birthday parties when marketing ice cream cakes. Additionally, there are several other occasions for which the general population would purchase ice cream cakes. Due to the diversity of occasions for which the target market will purchase ice cream cakes, the ability to customize the cakes is of great importance. 29 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 10: Where can you buy ice cream cakes? Response Baskin-Robbins Grocery Store Cold Stone Dairy Queen Other Count 71 55 21 20 7 Percent 65.7% 50.9% 19.4% 18.5% 6.5% Q.10 Number of Respondents 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Baskin Robbins Grocery Store Cold Stone Dairy Queen Other Where Can You Buy Ice Cream Cakes? Q.10 shows that of all the vendors, consumers most recognize Baskin-Robbins as a maker of ice cream cakes. For this question, respondents were allowed to respond freely without any prompts. Multiple answers were allowed because we wanted to understand the market awareness of ice cream cake offerings. The “other” column was used as a catchall for responses that we received like Ben & Jerry’s, out-of-state specialty stores, and other infrequent answers. Consumers are next most aware that grocery stores sell ice cream cakes. The extent of BaskinRobbins market awareness is shown by the fact that all grocery stores are grouped together and still do not have enough market awareness to eclipse Baskin-Robbins. Cold Stone and Dairy Queen have similar, low market awareness rates. Cold Stone needs to increase market awareness. 30 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 11: Where would you be most likely to purchase an ice cream cake? Response Baskin-Robbins Grocery Store Cold Stone Dairy Queen Other Count 50 27 17 7 2 Percent 46.3% 25.0% 15.7% 6.5% 1.9% Q.11 Number of Respondents 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Baskin Robbins Grocery Store Cold Stone Dairy Queen Other Where Would You be Most Likely to Purchase an Ice Cream Cake? Q. 11 shows where customers are most likely to purchase an ice cream cake. As can be seen, the likely market share follows the same trend as market awareness (Q.10). Further information on this particular issue can be found in the analysis section of the report. 31 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 12: On a scale of 1 (least aware) to 7 (most aware), how aware are you that Cold Stone Creamery makes ice cream cakes? Response 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Interpretation Definitely Unaware Very Unaware Unaware As Aware As Unaware Aware Very Aware Definitely Aware Count 69 8 3 1 3 1 23 Percent 63.9% 7.4% 2.8% 0.9% 2.8% 0.9% 21.3% Q.12 Number of Respondents 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Least Aware 2 3 4 5 6 Most Aware How Aware are You that Cold Stone Creamery Makes Ice Cream Cakes? Q.12 shows that the general population of Salt Lake County is generally unaware that Cold Stone Creamery makes ice cream cakes. Additionally, this is a polar question. For the most part, people are aware or they are not. Few answers can be found in the middle. Using a z-test and a confidence level of 95%, the results prove significant against a neutral response value of four. On average 2.6 / 7.0 27 of 107 respondents said they were aware to some degree (5, 6, or 7) 79 of 107 respondents said they were unaware to some degree (1, 2, or 3) Only 1 respondent said they were as aware as unaware (4) 32 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 13: Within the next year, how likely are you to buy your next ice cream cake from Cold Stone Creamery? Response Definitely Unlikely Highly Unlikely Unlikely As Likely as Unlikely Likely Highly Likely Definitely Likely Count 40 19 16 Percent 37.0% 17.6% 14.8% 3 5 13 12 2.8% 4.6% 12.0% 11.1% Number of Respondents Q.13 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Definitely Unlikely Highly Unlikely Unlikely As Likely as Unlikely Likely Highly Likely Definitely Likely Within the Next Year, How Likely are You to Buy Your Next Ice Cream Cake From Cold Stone Creamery? Q.13 is a purchase intention question. Based on the results of our study and standard marketing practice, we can forecast that approximately 23.15% of the population will purchase ice cream cake from Cold Stone at least once after they become aware that Cold Stone offers this product. Using a z-test and a confidence level of 95%, the results prove significant against a neutral response value of four. NOTE: This question was administered after the respondents were made aware that Cold Stone Creamery makes and sells ice cream cakes. 33 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 14: How many times each year do you make your own ice cream cake? Response 0 1 to 2 3 to 5 6 to 10 Count 40 11 2 2 Percent 37.0% 10.2% 1.9% 1.9% Q.14 Number of Respondents 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 1 to 2 3 to 5 6 to 10 How Many Times Each Year Do You Make Your Own Ice Cream Cake? Q.14 suggests that most people do not make their own ice cream cakes. However, those who do make their own ice cream cakes do so only once or twice each year. 34 STRONWIN CONSULTING Questions 15-19: On a scale of 1 (least important) to 7 (most important), how important are each of the following: Question 15: Price Response 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Interpretation Definitely Unimportant Very Unimportant Unimportant As important As Unimportant important Very important Definitely important Count 9 4 9 16 21 17 32 Percent 8.3% 3.7% 8.3% 14.8% 19.4% 15.7% 29.6% Q.15 Number of Respondents 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 How Important is Price? Q.15 suggests that the majority of the target market considers price to be an important aspect of their ice cream cake purchase decision. On the scale of 1-7, the average response rate with price was 5, the mode was 7, and the standard deviation was 1.87. Using a z-test and a confidence level of 95%, the results prove significant against a neutral response value of four. 35 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 16: Taste Response 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Interpretation Definitely Unimportant Very Unimportant Unimportant As important As Unimportant Important Very important Definitely important Count 0 2 4 4 14 23 61 Percent 0.0% 1.9% 3.7% 3.7% 13.0% 21.3% 56.5% Q. 16 Q.17 Number of Respondents 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 How Important is Taste? Q.16 shows that taste is one of the more important factors in the ice cream cake purchase decision. On the scale of 1-7, the average response rate with taste was 6.18, the mode was 7, and the standard deviation was 1.2. Using a z-test and a confidence level of 95%, the results prove significant against a neutral response value of four. 36 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 17: Visual Appeal Response 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Interpretation Definitely Unimportant Very Unimportant Unimportant As important As Unimportant Important Very important Definitely important Count 13 10 17 17 21 15 15 Percent 12.0% 9.3% 15.7% 15.7% 19.4% 13.9% 13.9% Q. 17 Q.16 Number of Respondents 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 How Important is Visual Appeal? Q.17 suggests that the visual appeal of the cake is not as important as price. A broad spectrum of importance is given to this aspect of the purchase decision depending on the buyer and their specific needs. On the scale of 1-7, the average response rate with visual appeal was 4.19, the mode was 5, and the standard deviation was 1.9. Using a z-test and a confidence level of 95%, the results prove significant against a neutral response value of four. 37 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 18: Distance to the vendor Response 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Interpretation Definitely Unimportant Very Unimportant Unimportant As important As Unimportant Important Very important Definitely important Count 5 3 12 23 21 29 15 Percent 4.6% 2.8% 11.1% 21.3% 19.4% 26.9% 13.9% Q. 18 Q.19 Number of Respondents 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 How Important is the Distance to the Vendor? Q.18 suggests that although consumers differ in their view of the importance of the distance to the vendor, overall they tend to prefer to make purchases closer to home or work. On the scale of 1-7, the average response rate with vendor was 4.85, the mode was 6, and the standard deviation was 1.56. Using a z-test and a confidence level of 95%, the results prove significant against a neutral response value of four. 38 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 19: Ability to customize Response 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Interpretation Definitely Unimportant Very Unimportant Unimportant As important As Unimportant Important Very important Definitely important Count 9 9 12 17 24 18 19 Percent 8.3% 8.3% 11.1% 15.7% 22.2% 16.7% 17.6% Q. 19 Q.18 Number of Respondents 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 How Important is the Ability to Customize? Q.19 shows that there is a widely varied opinion about the importance of the ability to customize ice cream cakes. On the scale of 1-7, the average response rate with customization was 4.56, the mode was 5, and the standard deviation was 1.84. Using a z-test and a confidence level of 95%, the results prove significant against a neutral response value of four. 39 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 20: How much would most people expect to pay for an ice cream cake that serves 16 people? Response $0 to $10 $11 to $15 $16 to $20 $21 to $25 $26 to $30 $31 to $40 Count 11 25 31 23 11 7 Percent 10.2% 23.1% 28.7% 21.3% 10.2% 6.5% Q.20 Number of Respondents 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 20 21 to 25 26 to 30 31 to 40 How Much Would Most People Expect to Pay For an Ice Cream Cake that Serves 16 People? Q.20 shows a fairly even distribution of what people expect to pay for ice cream cakes, however, the distribution is skewed slightly to the left. This suggests that although the greater concentration of people expects to pay lower amounts, there are a few groups of people who expect to pay more than most for ice cream cakes. On average consumers expect to pay $20.25. 40 STRONWIN CONSULTING Questions 21-25: On a scale of 1 (least willing) to 7 (most willing), how willing would you be to pay an additional $ ______ (10% more than answer to question 20) for…: Question 21: Taste Response 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Interpretation Definitely Unimportant Very Unimportant Unimportant As important As Unimportant Important Very important Definitely important Count 6 5 2 10 26 22 37 Percent 5.6% 4.6% 1.9% 9.3% 24.1% 20.4% 34.3% Q.21 Number of Respondents 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 How Willing Would You be to Pay an Additional 10 % More for Taste? Q.21 shows that the majority of consumers are willing to pay an additional 10% to purchase an ice cream cake with a superior taste or flavor. On the scale of 1-7, the average response rate with paying 10% with taste was 5.40, the mode was 7, and the standard deviation was 1.71. Using a z-test and a confidence level of 95%, the results prove significant against a neutral response value of four. 41 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 22: Visual appeal Response 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Interpretation Definitely Unimportant Very Unimportant Unimportant As important As Unimportant Important Very important Definitely important Count 9 4 7 20 31 24 13 Percent 8.3% 3.7% 6.5% 18.5% 28.7% 22.2% 12.0% Q.22 Number of Respondents 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 How Willing Would You be to Pay an Additional 10 % More for Visual Appeal? Q.22 shows that people are willing to pay more for a better visual appeal. On the scale of 1-7, the average response rate with paying 10% with visual appeal was 4.70, the mode was 5, and the standard deviation was 1.66. Using a z-test and a confidence level of 95%, the results prove significant against a neutral response value of four. 42 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 23: Ability to customize Response 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Interpretation Definitely Unimportant Very Unimportant Unimportant As important As Unimportant Important Very important Definitely important Count 3 7 10 23 30 18 17 Percent 2.8% 6.5% 9.3% 21.3% 27.8% 16.7% 15.7% Q.23 Number of Respondents 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 How Willing Would You be to Pay an Additional 10 % More for the Ability to Customize? Q.23 shows that people are willing to pay more for customization. On the scale of 1-7, the average response rate with paying 10% with ability to customize was 4.78, the mode was 5, and the standard deviation was 1.54. Using a z-test and a confidence level of 95%, the results prove significant against a neutral response value of four. 43 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 24: Closeness to the vendor Response 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Interpretation Definitely Unimportant Very Unimportant Unimportant As important As Unimportant Important Very important Definitely important Count 5 5 10 14 29 25 20 Percent 4.6% 4.6% 9.3% 13.0% 26.9% 23.1% 18.5% Q.24 Number of Respondents 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 How Willing Would You be to Pay an Additional 10 % More for the Closeness to the Vendor? Q.24 suggests that overall consumers are willing to pay more for the convenience of purchasing from a vendor that is closer to their work or home. Q.22 shows that people are willing to pay more for a better visual appeal. On the scale of 1-7, the average response rate with paying 10% with the closeness to the vendor was 4.96, the mode was 5, and the standard deviation was 1.63. Using a z-test and a confidence level of 95%, the results prove significant against a neutral response value of four. 44 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 25: Importance of the event for which the cake is being purchased Response 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Interpretation Definitely Unimportant Very Unimportant Unimportant As important As Unimportant Important Very important Definitely important Count 6 4 4 4 24 28 38 Percent 5.6% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 22.2% 25.9% 35.2% Q.25 Number of Respondents 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 How Willing Would You be to Pay an Additional 10 % More for the Importance of the Event for which the Cake is Being Purchased? Q.25 shows that in general consumers are willing to pay more if the event for which they are purchasing the ice cream cake is of greater importance. Q.22 shows that people are willing to pay more for a better visual appeal. On the scale of 1-7, the average response rate with paying 10% with importance of the event was 5.52, the mode was 7, and the standard deviation was 1.68. Using a z-test and a confidence level of 95%, the results prove significant against a neutral response value of four. 45 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 26: What gender are you? Response Male Female Count 41 67 Percent 38.0% 62.0% Q.26 Number of Respondents 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Male Female Gender Q.26 shows that of the respondents there was a 3:2 ratio of females to males. 46 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 27: What is your age? Response 0 to 18 19 to 25 26 to 35 36 to 45 46 to 55 56 to 65 66+ Count 7 14 27 23 11 14 12 Percent 6.5% 13.0% 25.0% 21.3% 10.2% 13.0% 11.1% Q.27 Number of Respondents 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 to 18 19 to 25 26 to 35 36 to 45 46 to 55 56 to 65 66+ Age Q.27 shows that the majority of our respondents were between the ages of 26 and 45. 47 STRONWIN CONSULTING Question 28: What is your approximate annual household income? Response $0 to $35,000 $35,001 to $70,000 $70,001 to $105,000 $105,001 to $150,000 $150,001+ Count 16 29 50 9 4 Percent 14.8% 26.9% 46.3% 8.3% 3.7% Q.28 Number of Respondents 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 $ 0 to $ 35,000 $ 35,001to $ 70,000 $ 70,001to $ 105,000 $ 105,001to $ 150,000 $ 150,001+ What is Your Approximate Annual Household Income? Q.28 shows that the median income of respondents was between $70,001 and $105,000. As noted in the limitations section of our report, when respondents refused to give their income level, the group average, $84,805, was used in place of their income. 48 STRONWIN CONSULTING Findings: Strong Correlations Section Purpose: This appendix contains strong correlations (Pearson Correlation between 0.45 and 0.7) that we found in our research. 49 STRONWIN CONSULTING FSC.1 Dependent: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior level of customization Independent: Level of importance to consumer: level of customization This strong correlation suggests that customers are willing to pay a 10% premium for more customization options the more important that they feel customization of an ice cream cake is. Correlations CustomizationPayMore CustomizationImportance Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Customizati onPayMore 1 Customization Importance .458** .000 108 108 .458** 1 .000 108 108 **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). Model Summ ary Change St atist ics Model 1 R R Square .458a .210 Adjust ed R Square .203 St d. Error of the Es timate 1.378 R Square Change .210 F Change 28.211 df1 1 df2 106 Sig. F Change .000 a. Predic tors: (Constant), Cus tomizationImport anc e Coeffi cientsa Model 1 (Const ant) CustomizationImportance Unstandardized Coeffic ient s B St d. Error 3.028 .355 .384 .072 St andardiz ed Coeffic ient s Beta .458 t 8.524 5.311 Sig. .000 .000 a. Dependent Variable: CustomizationPay More 50 STRONWIN CONSULTING FSC.2.A Dependent: Buy ice cream cakes Independent: Eat at Baskin-Robbins: times per year There is a strong correlation between how many times a consumer eats at Baskin-Robbins every year and how many ice cream cakes are purchased every year. Correlations EatBRperYear PurchaseIce CreamCakes Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N PurchaseIce CreamCakes .719** .000 108 106 .719** 1 .000 106 106 EatBRperYear 1 **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). Model Summ ary Change St atist ics Model 1 R R Square .719a .517 Adjust ed R Square .513 St d. Error of the Es timate .912 R Square Change .517 F Change 111.493 df1 1 df2 104 Sig. F Change .000 a. Predic tors: (Constant), Eat BRperYear Coeffi cientsa Model 1 (Const ant) EatBRperYear Unstandardized Coeffic ient s B St d. Error .353 .092 .092 .009 St andardiz ed Coeffic ient s Beta .719 t 3.843 10.559 Sig. .000 .000 a. Dependent Variable: PurchaseIc eCreamCak es 51 STRONWIN CONSULTING FSC.2.B Dependent: Buy ice cream cakes Independent: Eat at Cold Stone: times per year The above should be compared with the number of cakes a consumer purchases in a year and the number of times that a consumer eats a Cold Stone Creamery in a year (See Appendix E). Correlations PurchaseIce CreamCakes EatCSperYear Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N PurchaseIce CreamCakes 1 EatCSperYear .361** .000 106 106 .361** 1 .000 106 107 **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). Model Summ ary Change St atist ics Model 1 R R Square .361a .130 Adjust ed R Square .122 St d. Error of the Es timate 1.225 R Square Change .130 F Change 15.557 df1 1 df2 104 Sig. F Change .000 a. Predic tors: (Constant), Eat CSperYear Coeffi cientsa Model 1 (Const ant) EatCSperYear Unstandardized Coeffic ient s B St d. Error .472 .124 .056 .014 St andardiz ed Coeffic ient s Beta .361 t 3.816 3.944 Sig. .000 .000 a. Dependent Variable: PurchaseIc eCreamCak es 52 STRONWIN CONSULTING Findings: Weak Correlations NOTE: This appendix contains weak correlations that are strong enough for regression (Pearson Correlation between 0.2 and 0.45). We recommend that further investigation be made into these correlations. Although they are only weakly correlated, these correlations provide valuable information about how Cold Stone can improve its cake sales. 53 STRONWIN CONSULTING FWC.1 Dependent: Consumer level of awareness that Cold Stone Creamery makes ice cream cakes Independent: Eat at Cold Stone: times per year Although a weak correlation, the more often that people eat at Cold Stone each year, the more likely they are to know that Cold Stone makes ice cream cakes. Also, it is interesting to note that approximately for every 11 (10.8) visits to Cold Stone a consumer’s awareness level increases by 1 on the 7-point scale. Correlations CSAware EatCSperYear Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N CSAware 1 EatCSperYear .313** .001 107 107 .313** 1 .001 107 107 **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). Model Summ ary Change St atist ics Model 1 R R Square .313a .098 Adjust ed R Square .089 St d. Error of the Es timate 2.370 R Square Change .098 F Change 11.377 df1 1 df2 105 Sig. F Change .001 a. Predic tors: (Constant), Eat CSperYear Coeffi cientsa Model 1 (Const ant) EatCSperYear Unstandardized Coeffic ient s B St d. Error 2.391 .238 .092 .027 St andardiz ed Coeffic ient s Beta .313 t 10.050 3.373 Sig. .000 .001 a. Dependent Variable: CSAware 54 STRONWIN CONSULTING FWC.2 Dependent: Make own ice cream cake: times per year Independent: Eat at Baskin-Robbins: times per year This correlation shows that when people eat at Baskin-Robbins more often, they tend to make their own ice cream cakes more frequently. This makes sense when we consider the power of suggestion. As shown by our survey, many people would not be willing to pay $25 for an ice cream cake at Baskin-Robbins, but while they are eating ice cream at the store they see the ice cream cakes for sale and decide to make them for themselves. Interestingly, the same is not true of people shopping at Cold Stone Creamery. Further studies may validate the above suggestion or the studies may show that there is no real correlation between eating frequently at a specific ice cream parlor and others making ice cream cakes. However, because there is also a strong correlation between eating at Baskin-Robbins and buying ice cream cakes, I am led to believe that there is a correlation here. Cold Stone should seek to increase their customers’ awareness that they make ice cream cakes. An additional area of further study would be what causes people to make their own ice cream cakes instead of buying them at the parlor. Correlations MakeOwn Cakes MakeOwnCakes EatBRperYear EatBRperYear .387** .000 108 108 .387** 1 .000 108 108 Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 1 **. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). Model Summ ary Change St atist ics Model 1 R R Square .387a .150 Adjust ed R Square .142 St d. Error of the Es timate 1.087 R Square Change .150 F Change 18.678 df1 1 df2 106 Sig. F Change .000 a. Predic tors: (Constant), Eat BRperYear Coeffi cientsa Model 1 (Const ant) EatBRperYear Unstandardized Coeffic ient s B St d. Error .259 .108 .045 .010 St andardiz ed Coeffic ient s Beta .387 t 2.387 4.322 Sig. .019 .000 a. Dependent Variable: MakeOwnCakes 55 STRONWIN CONSULTING FWC.3 Dependent: Make own ice cream cake: times per year Independent: Buy ice cream cakes This weak correlation shows that people who buy more ice cream cakes also make more of their own. People tend to make one additional ice cream cake for every 4.2 ice cream cakes that they purchase. This would be an interesting area for additional study. Why do people make their own ice cream cakes? Is there any correlation between purchasing ice cream cakes and making your own? Is this data representative of the parent population or is it a sample error? Correlations MakeOwn Cakes MakeOwnCakes PurchaseIce CreamCakes PurchaseIce CreamCakes 1 .264** .006 108 106 .264** 1 .006 106 106 Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N **. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). Model Summ ary Change St atist ics Model 1 R R Square .264a .069 Adjust ed R Square .061 St d. Error of the Es timate 1.138 R Square Change .069 F Change 7.764 df1 1 df2 104 Sig. F Change .006 a. Predic tors: (Constant), Purchas eIceCreamCakes Coefficientsa Model 1 (Constant) PurchaseIce CreamCakes Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error .225 .122 .237 .085 Standardized Coefficients Beta .264 t 1.847 Sig. .068 2.786 .006 a. Dependent Variable: MakeOwnCakes 56 STRONWIN CONSULTING FWC.4 Dependent: Make own ice cream cake: times per year Independent: Level of importance to consumer: taste This weak correlation is of interest for further studies. It would appear that when taste is more important to a person, they are more likely to make fewer ice cream cakes. However, the importance of taste does not appear to be correlated with how many ice cream cakes are purchased each year. A further study should seek to verify the correlations of these two variables. Further research may well uncover that customers that value taste will make fewer ice cream cakes for themselves in favor of purchasing them. This, then, would be an appropriate place to focus marketing. Correlations Taste Importance TasteImportance MakeOwnCakes Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 1 108 -.318** .001 108 MakeOwn Cakes -.318** .001 108 1 108 **. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). Model Summ ary Change St atist ics Model 1 R R Square .318a .101 Adjust ed R Square .093 St d. Error of the Es timate 1.118 R Square Change .101 F Change 11.947 df1 1 df2 106 Sig. F Change .001 a. Predic tors: (Constant), Tas teImport ance Coeffi cientsa Model 1 (Const ant) TasteImportanc e Unstandardized Coeffic ient s B St d. Error 2.293 .564 -.310 .090 St andardiz ed Coeffic ient s Beta -.318 t 4.066 -3. 456 Sig. .000 .001 a. Dependent Variable: MakeOwnCak es 57 STRONWIN CONSULTING FWC.5 Dependent: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior taste Independent: Level of importance to consumer: taste This weak correlation suggests that customers will be more willing to pay a 10% premium for an ice cream cake that tastes better. This suggests that if consumers perceive Cold Stone ice cream as better tasting than the competition, then Cold Stone could charge a 10% premium for their better tasting ice cream. Correlations TastePayMore TasteImportance TastePayMore 1 Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 108 .324** .001 108 Taste Importance .324** .001 108 1 108 **. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). Model Summ ary Change St atist ics Model 1 R R Square .324a .105 Adjust ed R Square .097 St d. Error of the Es timate 1.623 R Square Change .105 F Change 12.451 df1 1 df2 106 Sig. F Change .001 a. Predic tors: (Constant), Tas teImport ance Coeffi cientsa Model 1 (Const ant) TasteImportanc e Unstandardized Coeffic ient s B St d. Error 2.564 .818 .459 .130 St andardiz ed Coeffic ient s Beta .324 t 3.133 3.529 Sig. .002 .001 a. Dependent Variable: TastePayMore 58 STRONWIN CONSULTING FWC.6 Dependent: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with superior visual appeal Independent: Level of importance to consumer: visual appeal This weak correlation suggests that customers will be more willing to pay a 10% premium for an ice cream cake that looks better. Further investigation is warranted before acting upon a weak correlation. However, this would suggest that if Cold Stone wants to charge more for their ice cream cakes, they should ensure that they have a better visual appeal than the competition. Correlations Vis ualPay More Vis ualPayMore DecorationImportance Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 1 108 .439** .000 108 Decoration Importance .439** .000 108 1 108 **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). Model Summ ary Change St atist ics Model 1 R R Square .439a .192 Adjust ed R Square .185 St d. Error of the Es timate 1.498 R Square Change .192 F Change 25.242 df1 1 df2 106 Sig. F Change .000 a. Predic tors: (Constant), Dec orat ionImportanc e Coeffi cientsa Model 1 (Const ant) DecorationImportance Unstandardized Coeffic ient s B St d. Error 3.101 .350 .383 .076 St andardiz ed Coeffic ient s Beta .439 t 8.859 5.024 Sig. .000 .000 a. Dependent Variable: VisualPay More 59 STRONWIN CONSULTING FWC.7 Dependent: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes bought from a closer vendor Independent: Level of importance to consumer: distance to vendor This weak correlation suggests that customers will be more willing to pay a 10% premium to be able to buy the ice cream cake from a location that is closer to their business or home if they feel that it is more important to be able to buy from a vendor that is closer to their business or home. Correlations DistancePayMore DistanceImportance Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N DistancePay More 1 108 .343** .000 108 Distance Importance .343** .000 108 1 108 **. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). Model Summ ary Change St atist ics Model 1 R R Square .343a .117 Adjust ed R Square .109 St d. Error of the Es timate 1.537 R Square Change .117 F Change 14.111 df1 1 df2 106 Sig. F Change .000 a. Predic tors: (Constant), Dist anc eImportance Coeffi cientsa Model 1 (Const ant) Dis tanceImport ance Unstandardized Coeffic ients B St d. Error 3.231 .484 .357 .095 St andardiz ed Coeffic ients Beta .343 t 6.671 3.757 Sig. .000 .000 a. Dependent Variable: Dis tanc ePayMore 60 STRONWIN CONSULTING Findings: Significant Associations NOTE: This section comprises a list of the associations that we found to be significant with at least 90% confidence. For a more detailed understanding of the associations the reader may do two things: (1) see Appendix C or (2) conduct further research to better understand the associations and see if correlation and causation exist between variables. 61 STRONWIN CONSULTING SAF.1—91.2% Confident Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior taste Variable 2: Time since eating at an ice cream parlor SAF.2—94.4% Confident Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with superior visual appeal Variable 2: Time since eating prepackaged ice cream SAF.3—99.9% Confident Variable 1: Age Variable 2: Parlor eating frequency SAF.4—92.4% Confident Variable 1: Eat at Dairy Queen: times per year Variable 2: Vendors that sell ice cream cakes SAF.5—99.9% Confident Variable 1: Vendors that sell ice cream cakes Variable 2: Eat at Cold Stone: times per year SAF.6—99.1% Confident Variable 1: Vendor from which consumer is most likely to buy an ice cream cake Variable 2: Eat at Cold Stone: times per year SAF.7—99.99% Confident Variable 1: Vendor from which consumer is most likely to buy an ice cream cake Variable 2: Buy ice cream cakes SAF.8—99.99% Confident Variable 1: Consumer level of awareness that Cold Stone Creamery makes ice cream cakes Variable 2: Vendors that sell ice cream cakes SAF.9—99.99% Confident Variable 1: Consumer level of awareness that Cold Stone Creamery makes ice cream cakes Variable 2: Vendor from which consumer is most likely to buy an ice cream cake SAF.10—99.98% Confident Variable 1: Likelihood that consumer purchases next ice cream cake from Cold Stone Creamery Variable 2: Time since eating prepackaged ice cream SAF.11—99% Confident Variable 1: Likelihood that consumer purchases next ice cream cake from Cold Stone Creamery Variable 2: Eat at Cold Stone: times per year 62 STRONWIN CONSULTING SAF.12—93.6% Confident Variable 1: Likelihood that consumer purchases next ice cream cake from Cold Stone Creamery Variable 2: Buy ice cream cakes SAF.13—95.5% Confident Variable 1: Likelihood that consumer purchases next ice cream cake from Cold Stone Creamery Variable 2: Event for which consumers purchase ice cream cakes SAF.14—99.9% Confident Variable 1: Likelihood that consumer purchases next ice cream cake from Cold Stone Creamery Variable 2: Vendor from which consumer is most likely to buy an ice cream cake SAF.15—91.1% Confident Variable 1: Make own ice cream cake: times per year Variable 2: Vendors that sell ice cream cakes SAF.16—90.4% Confident Variable 1: Level of importance to consumer: price Variable 2: Vendors that sell ice cream cakes SAF.17—99.9% Confident Variable 1: Level of importance to consumer: taste Variable 2: Event for which consumers purchase ice cream cakes SAF.18—96% Confident Variable 1: Level of importance to consumer: taste Variable 2: Vendor from which consumer is most likely to buy an ice cream cake SAF.19—93.2% Confident Variable 1: Level of importance to consumer: distance to vendor Variable 2: Vendors that sell ice cream cakes SAF.20—91.7% Confident Variable 1: Level of importance to consumer: level of customization Variable 2: Vendors that sell ice cream cakes SAF.21—96.5% Confident Variable 1: Ice cream cake for 16 people: consumer price expectation Variable 2: Vendors that sell ice cream cakes SAF.22—99.99% Confident Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior taste Variable 2: Event for which consumers purchase ice cream cakes 63 STRONWIN CONSULTING SAF.23—98.1% Confident Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior taste Variable 2: Vendor from which consumer is most likely to buy an ice cream cake SAF.24—99.8% Confident Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with superior visual appeal Variable 2: Event for which consumers purchase ice cream cakes SAF.25—99.9% Confident Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior level of customization Variable 2: Event for which consumers purchase ice cream cakes SAF.26—99% Confident Variable 1: Level of importance to consumer: level of customization Variable 2: Vendors that sell ice cream cakes SAF.27—92.7% Confident Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes bought from a closer vendor to the vendor Variable 2: Event for which consumers purchase ice cream cakes SAF.28—99.9% Confident Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes for more important events Variable 2: Event for which consumers purchase ice cream cakes SAF.29—95.8% Confident Variable 1: Gender Variable 2: Time since eating at an ice cream parlor SAF.30—94.8% Confident Variable 1: Gender Variable 2: Vendors that sell ice cream cakes SAF.31—92.9% Confident Variable 1: Gender Variable 2: Level of importance to consumer: price SAF.32—97.4% Confident Variable 1: Gender Variable 2: Level of importance to consumer: taste 64 STRONWIN CONSULTING SAF.33—97.4% Confident Variable 1: Gender Variable 2: Level of importance to consumer: visual appeal SAF.34—92% Confident Variable 1: Gender Variable 2: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior taste SAF.35—99% Confident Variable 1: Gender Variable 2: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes for more important events SAF.36—99.3% Confident Variable 1: Income Variable 2: Event for which consumers purchase ice cream cakes SAF.37—99.8% Confident Variable 1: Income Variable 2: Likelihood that consumer purchases next ice cream cake from Cold Stone Creamery SAF.38—99.99% Confident Variable 1: Eat at Dairy Queen: times per year Variable 2: Time since eating at an ice cream parlor SAF.39—99.99% Confident Variable 1: Eat at Cold Stone: times per year Variable 2: Parlor eating frequency SAF.40—89% Confident Variable 1: Buy ice cream cakes Variable 2: Parlor eating frequency SAF.41—89.6% Confident Variable 1: Eat at Baskin-Robbins: times per year Variable 2: Parlor eating frequency 65 STRONWIN CONSULTING Findings: Other NOTE: This section includes other findings that were not specific to any of the classes above, but were still interesting and noteworthy. 66 STRONWIN CONSULTING FO.1 During our meeting with Mr. Nielsen, he mentioned to us that 90% of Cold Stone Creamery Customers are females between the ages of 13 and 38. However, for Salt Lake County, this is not true. Below is a chart detailing not only the counts of males and females responding to the survey that eat at Cold Stone Creamery, but also the number of times Cold Stone Creamery was visited by members of each gender. The percentages have also been included. Gender Male Female Respondents Count % 13 38.2% 21 61.8% Annual Trips to Cold Stone Count % 32 45.1% 39 54.9% This chart clearly shows that although more females eat at Cold Stone Creamery than males, the target market is more evenly distributed than originally thought. The margin of error for this question is calculated as detailed in appendix F. Although 108 people responded to the survey, for this chart we only used the responses of those respondents that eat at Cold Stone Creamery because we wanted to evaluate only those that eat at Cold Stone Creamery. If we plug these values into the margin of error formula in Appendix F, n = 34, Z = 1.96, and p = .95, we get a margin of error at + or – 5.2%. FO.2 Females 13-38 Count % 9 42.86% Count 12 39+ % 57.14% The above chart shows that the majority of female customers are not between the ages of 18 and 38 as originally thought by Mr. Nielsen. The margin of error (using the values: n=21, Z=1.96, and p=.99)—as calculated by the formula in Appendix F—is +/- 3 percent. One possible problem with this second conclusion is that the sample size is small. The design of the survey was not such that we would be able to make these conclusions. Therefore—if Cold Stone Creamery thinks that this demographic is important—we recommend that further research be conducted to determine if these results are valid. 67 STRONWIN CONSULTING FO.3 Are people that purchase ice cream cakes willing to pay more for an ice cream cake than the population in general? z-Test: Two Sample for Means Mean Known Variance Observations Hypothesized Mean Difference z P(Z<=z) one-tail z Critical one-tail P(Z<=z) two-tail z Critical two-tail Variable 1 Variable 2 22.13323529 20.2525 7.04 7.14 34 108 1.88 0.00140684 0.499438752 1.644853627 0.998877505 1.959963985 People that have purchased ice cream cakes within the last year are willing to pay an average of $22.13, compared to the average of $20.25 for all respondents in the sample. The two-tail Pvalue is .99, which shows that there is not a significant difference between these two average prices. If these means are indeed statistically significant, more data would be required to validate this hypothesis. 68 STRONWIN CONSULTING Conclusions & Recommendations 69 STRONWIN CONSULTING Conclusions Based on the numerous findings and analysis in the previous section, we have made the following conclusions: 75% of consumers would buy an ice cream cake for a birthday party. Customization is important to consumers because they buy ice cream cakes for random other occasions. Baskin-Robbins is the most recognized vendor of ice cream cakes, even more recognized that all grocery stores combined. Cold Stone and Dairy Queen have similar, low market awareness of their ice cream cake product lines. Approximately 23.15% of the target market will purchase at least one ice cream cake from Cold Stone Creamery once they become aware that Cold Stone Creamery offers this product. On a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 being the least important and 7 being the most important when purchasing an ice cream cake, on average, consumers gave the following levels of importance to the following variables: o Price: 5 o Taste: 6.18 o Visual Appeal: 4.19 o Distance to Vendor: 4.85 o Customization: 4.56 Each of the seven point scale numbers were tested and found to be statistically significant. On average, consumers expect to pay $20.25 for an ice cream cake that serves 16 people. Cold Stone is over priced, more than 74% higher than some competitors. On a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 being the least willing and 7 being the most willing, on average, consumers gave the following levels of willingness to pay a 10% premium for the following variables: o Superior Taste: 5.4 o Superior Visual Appeal: 4.7 o Superior Level of Customization: 4.78 o Closeness to Vendor: 4.96 o If the ice cream cake is being purchased for a more important event: 5.52 Each of the seven point scale numbers were tested and found to be statistically significant. On average, consumers are unlikely (3.01/7) to buy their next ice cream cake from Cold Stone Creamery The more important a consumer thinks customization is, the more willing the consumer is to pay a 10% premium for a greater level of customization 70 STRONWIN CONSULTING The purchase of ice cream cakes is twice as correlated with frequenting BaskinRobbins as with frequenting Cold Stone Creamery Income does not affect the number of ice cream cakes that a consumer buys Cold Stone Creamery demographics are not as originally thought—Females between the ages of 13 and 38. 71 STRONWIN CONSULTING Recommendations Survey based recommendations: Based on our findings and conclusions, we have provided the following recommendations to help Cold Stone Creamery significantly increase the revenue generated from the sale of ice cream cakes. Cold Stone Creamery should price their ice cream cakes closer to competitors prices and the market expectations ($20.25) Cold Stone should take the following steps to increase awareness of its ice cream cake product line among current customers (See Appendix E for explanation): o Entice customers to return more frequently. o Advertise either with direct mail coupons, media, or print advertising Coupon discounts should be targeted toward those who live closer to another maker of ice cream cakes than to Cold Stone because consumers are generally willing to pay a 10% premium in order to buy from a vendor that is closer to them. Do not target any income group in particular. o Reorient retail outlets so that the ice cream freezer is in the direct line of sight when consumers walk in the door. o Provide a flip book of ice cream cakes on a stand that consumers can leaf through while waiting to be served. o Increase the visibility of ice cream cake promoting signs in the store. Make an ice cream cake creation board similar to that for ice cream creations. o Sell a prepackaged product out of the freezers that will attract children, such as the Dilly Bars ® at Dairy Queen or the pre-made clown ice cream cones at Baskin-Robbins. o Package ice cream cakes in a Cold Stone Creamery, non-generic box. This increases awareness of the ice cream cake product line. Target the marketing of ice cream cakes to birthday parties. Exploit the premium taste of Cold Stone ice cream in ice cream cake advertising. Cold Stone should add sample cakes for more important events such as weddings, baptisms, bar mitzvahs, etc. to the flip book in addition to birthday and standard cakes Sell ice cream cake by the slice because this is an inexpensive way for consumers to sample Cold Stone Creamery ice cream cakes and it raises customer awareness of the product line Additional recommendations offered by the focus groups and not already mentioned: Baskin-Robbins is known as an ice cream cake seller because of its display models. Cold Stone Creamery should have display models of similar effectiveness. Coupons are the preferred method of advertising 72 STRONWIN CONSULTING Cold Stone has a competitive advantage because consumers choose the flavor of ice cream and the mix-ins for their cake and should advertise it. Along with customizing, Cold Stone Creamery should provide cake decorations for sale in the store Cold Stone Creamery should offer samples of ice cream cakes frequently. Baskin-Robbins and Dairy Queen are well known because of the packaging for their ice cream cakes. Cold Stone should consider a similar form of packaging. Cold Stone Creamery should always maintain a full ice cream cake freezer. Cold Stone needs advertisements for their ice cream cakes on the tables in the retail outlets. 73 STRONWIN CONSULTING Appendix A Focus Group Transcripts NOTE: This section contains the transcripts of both focus groups. The focus group members were given free ice cream at Cold Stone Creamery. The focus groups lasted between 30 and 45 minutes each. We refer to these focus groups throughout the paper. 74 STRONWIN CONSULTING Transcript of Focus Group 1: Otto: Have you ever been to a Cold Stone? Focus Group: Three out of the four have been to a Cold Stone. Otto: Were you aware that Cold Stone makes ice cream cakes? Focus Group: None of them were aware. Otto: If you were to think of where to buy ice cream cakes, what are the first three stores that come to mind? Focus Group: Dairy Queen, Baskin Robins, and grocery stores. Otto: How often do you make or buy ice cream cakes in a year? Focus Group: Once a year for my son’s birthday. If there was a Cold Stone near by, she’d buy it from there. Focus Group: I usually just do normal cakes, not ice cream cakes. Otto: How often do you bake cakes? Focus Group: Three times per year for birthdays. Focus Group: Eight to nine times per year for birthdays. Otto: What other events would you use ice cream cakes for? Focus Group: Baby or bridal showers, weddings, church events… Otto: What would you say is an appropriate pricing value for an ice cream cake? Focus Group: Twenty dollars for an eight inch double round. Focus Group: That sounds reasonable for a decorative cake. Jess: Is taste important enough that you would spend five dollars more for a cake? Focus Group: Yes, taste is a huge factor… as long as there is a Cold Stone close enough to me. Focus Group: Depends on the event and the budget at the time. Otto: Would shape and selection have any affect on your purchase? Focus Group: A round cake is preferable. Otto: How many people would you typically plan on serving an ice cream cake to? Focus Group: At least eight to fifteen. Otto: How much would you consider spending per person on an event that you provided ice cream for? Focus Group: Dollar and a half to two dollars. Jess: If cold stone were close enough to each of you, what would be an effective way for Cold Stone to advertise? Focus Group: The display needs to be very visible like at Baskin-Robbins. Otto: What is it about the display that makes it so visible? Focus Group: When you walk in, they are straight ahead of you and easily visible. Focus Group: When you’re waiting for your food they are right there. Otto: Do you find the dessert cases are fully stocked? Focus Group: Yeah, for the most part they’re full. Jess: Do you think that adults are more aware of the cakes at Dairy Queen because the kids are attracted to the dilly bars? Focus Group: Yes. 75 STRONWIN CONSULTING Otto: Would you respond more to television advertising or coupon ads? Focus Group: Coupons. Otto: What kind of coupon would entice you to purchase an ice cream cake? Focus Group: Buy one get one free type coupon or do samples of the ice cream cakes just like they do at Costco. Jess: What is your response with Cold Stone going into a grocery store to give samples? Focus Group: Yeah, that would be great too! Focus Group: I would prefer to buy a cold stone ice cream cake over a Baskin-Robbins cake because I can choose the ice cream flavor and the mix ins for the cake. Otto: Would you pay more for the cakes if you could customize them the way you want it? Focus Group: Yes. Otto: Would you want Cold Stone to provide accessories to put on the cake or would you want to bring in your own? Focus Group: I would be way more willing to customize a cake with Cold Stone if they provide the accessories (i.e. tractors, princesses, and decorative candles). Focus Group: They should place accessories for the cakes (i.e. tractors, princesses, and decorative candles) by the side of the coolers. I would be willing to pay more for them than in the stores. I would be more willing because it would be so convenient for me. I do not like running around town getting little things like cake accessories. 76 STRONWIN CONSULTING Transcript of Focus Group 2: Jess: Where would you most likely go for ice cream? Focus Group: BYU Creamery and Ben and Jerry’s. Jess: Is it because of price? Focus Group: It is location…they are very close in traveling distance. Focus Group: We go to Baskin-Robbins. Jess: Is it because of taste? Focus Group: It’s because of the many flavors they have at Baskin-Robbins. We like and enjoy Baskin-Robbins. My husband likes particular kinds at Baskin-Robbins and Cold Stone doesn’t have those particular ice cream flavors. We do like Cold Stone because of the creativeness of the mix ins. If anyone invites us to go to Cold Stone, we will go. Jess: Within a year, how often do you go? Focus Group: Twice a week; twice a year; five times per year; twice a month Focus Group: Price does not hold us back from going to Cold Stone. We like the ice cream a lot! Jess: Does Cold Stone make ice cream cakes? Focus Group: (all of them have been to a Cold Stone store) Cold Stone makes ice cream cakes? I did not know they offered ice cream cakes. Jess: Which stores are you aware that make ice cream cakes? Focus Group: Dairy Queen and Baskin-Robbins. Jess: How do you know that they make cakes? Focus Group: Birthdays and other occasions we go to they have an ice cream cake from BaskinRobbins or Dairy Queen. Also, the cakes are so visible when you walk into Baskin-Robbins. I have been in Cold Stone a lot but never seen the ice cream cakes in the store. Jess: Is the cake displays at Dairy Queen and Baskin-Robbins always full? Focus Group: Yes. Jess: What kind of cakes do you look for? Focus Group: Chocolate….Vanilla. Jess: What would you expect to pay for an ice cream cake? Focus Group: Twenty-five dollars for an eight inch. Jess: What could Cold Stone do to advertise the ice cream cakes? Focus Group: Commercials….people just aren’t aware that they offer ice cream cakes. Jess: Their main marketing strategy is word of mouth. Focus Group: We’re just not aware of the different products that they have to offer and we think the way to get that information out to customers is to televise it or do some type of mail ads. Jess: Would coupons be a good way to advertise? Focus Group: Yes, with a certain amount of discount on the cakes. Jess: How important is customization for cakes and what would you use it for? Focus Group: Very important, especially because Cold Stone does mix ins. I would like to customize the cakes for birthdays or weddings. Jess: Would you pay more for taste? 77 STRONWIN CONSULTING Focus Group: Yes, I would pay five to eight dollars more for premium ice cream (in the cakes). Jess: Is there any other way that Cold Stone could get more customer awareness of the cakes? Focus Group: Cold Stone should do a creation board for cakes that are as visible as for those that are for their ice cream. Focus Group: I know that other places have ice cream cakes because of the flip through books that are accessible while standing in line. Focus Group: Cold Stone could be more regular with giving out samples as you are waiting to order your ice cream. Focus Group: Have advertisements that are visible underneath the table clothes or have stand up ads on tables. Focus Group: Cold Stone need to reposition their display case of ice cream cakes to where it’s more straight ahead of where you walk in and not tucked away in a corner. 78 STRONWIN CONSULTING Appendix B Questionnaire NOTE: The questionnaire below was designed for and administered by telephone. Telephone representatives were instructed to be consistent in the way they asked the questions, though they were allowed to explain them if the respondent did not appear to understand the question. Telephone representatives called mostly between the hours of 5 and 9 pm to administer the survey. Answers were recorded in an Excel ® spreadsheet. Approximately 100 man hours were spent administering the survey. Some questions, being open ended, provided for answers that were not standardized (days, weeks, months, years). After the calling was completed, we standardized the answers without changing their value. Also, we did not ask respondents for their gender. The telephone representatives simply identified the respondents’ gender during the conversation. Also, because age and income are sensitive issues, we asked for the approximate age and household income to encourage more people to respond to those questions. 79 STRONWIN CONSULTING Cold Stone Ice Cream Cake Survey 1. How long has it been since you consumed ice cream from an ice cream parlor like BaskinRobbins or Cold Stone or Dairy Queen? 2. How often do you consume ice cream from a parlor like Baskin-Robbins or Cold Stone or Dairy Queen? 3. How long has it been since you consumed prepackaged ice cream? 4. How often do you consume prepackaged ice cream? 5. How many times per year do you eat ice cream at Baskin-Robbins? 6. How many times per year do you eat ice cream at Cold Stone Creamery? 7. How many times per year do you eat ice cream at Dairy Queen? 8. How many times per year do you purchase ice cream cakes? 9. For what events do you buy ice cream cakes? 10. Where can you buy ice cream cakes? 11. Where would you be most likely to purchase an ice cream cake? 12. On a scale of 1 to 7, 1 being the least aware and 7 being the most aware, how aware are you that Cold Stone Creamery makes ice cream cakes? 13. During the next year, how likely are you to buy your next ice cream cake from Cold Stone Creamery. 14. How many times per year do you make your own ice cream cakes? On a scale of 1 to 7, 1 being the least important and 7 being the most important, how important are the following when considering the purchase of an ice cream cake: 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. Price? Taste? Visual Appeal? Distance to Vendor? Ability to Customize? 80 STRONWIN CONSULTING 20. How much do you think that most people would be willing to pay for an ice cream cake that serves 16 people? On a scale of 1 to 7, 1 being the least willing and 7 being the most willing, how willing are you to pay a 10% premium on top of the $____ (Answer to # 20) that you just shared with us for an ice cream cake: 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. With superior taste? With superior visual appeal? With superior customization options? From a closer vendor? Purchased for a more important event? 26. Are you: ___Male ___Female? 27. What is your approximate age? 28. What is your approximate annual household income? 81 STRONWIN CONSULTING Appendix C Cross-Tabulation: Significant Findings for Further Study NOTE: This appendix contains associations that are significant. These associations were determined to be significant by creating a cross tabulation. The chi-squared statistic is below 0.1 for all associations in this section. This means that we are 90% sure that these associations are indicative of the parent population. Included graphics are (1) the cross tabulation for each set of variables and (2) the chi-squared statistic chart. We suggest that Cold Stone Creamery further investigate these associations. It may be that with further research these associations can be shown to have relevant, strong correlations. 82 STRONWIN CONSULTING Appendix C Section Purpose: This appendix contains associations that are significant. These associations were determined to be significant by creating a cross tabulation. The chi-squared statistic is below 0.1 for all associations in this section. This means that we are 90% sure that these associations are indicative of the parent population. Included graphics are (1) the cross tabulation for each set of variables and (2) the chi-squared statistic chart. We suggest that Cold Stone Creamery further investigate these associations. It may be that with further research these associations can be shown to have relevant, strong correlations. AC.1 Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior taste Variable 2: Time since eating at an ice cream parlor We are 91.2% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. Tim eSince Pa rlor * Ta stePayMore Crossta bul ation Count 0 0 TastePayMore 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 TimeSinceParlor Total Less Than One Week More t han 1 week, Less than 1 Month 1 Mont h to less than 3 months 3 mont hs t o Less than 5 months 5 mont hs t o les s than 7 mont hs 7 mont hs t o les s than 9 mont hs 11 months to 1 year More t han one year 2 3 5 3 6 2 7 6 Total 12 0 6 7 4 17 0 4 2 3 9 19 0 0 2 2 5 4 13 1 1 0 3 6 2 1 14 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 2 6 1 3 5 0 1 2 1 0 10 2 5 26 1 1 22 7 6 37 14 18 108 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 54.885 a 59.948 6.929 42 42 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .088 .036 1 .008 df 108 a. 53 cells (94.6% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .02. 83 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.2 Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with superior visual appeal Variable 2: Time since eating prepackaged ice cream We are 94.4% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. TimeSincePrePackaged * VisualPayMore Crosstabulation Count 2 0 Vis ualPayMore 4 3 6 3 3 0 2 1 0 1 TimeSincePrePackaged Total Less Than One Week More than 1 week, Less than 1 Month 1 Month to less than 3 months 3 months to Les s than 5 months 5 months to les s than 7 months 11 months to 1 year More than one year 2 3 5 6 7 Total 12 5 6 34 5 9 12 4 36 1 4 5 5 3 21 0 0 4 0 1 0 5 0 0 2 0 3 1 0 6 1 1 9 0 0 4 0 1 7 0 1 20 0 2 31 0 0 24 0 0 13 1 5 108 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 50.385 a 45.645 5.280 36 36 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .056 .130 1 .022 df 108 a. 42 cells (85.7% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .04. 84 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.3 Variable 1: Age Variable 2: Parlor eating frequency We are 99.99% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. Age * ParlorFrequency Crosstabulation Count 0 Age Total 11 14 15 16 17 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 40 41 42 45 46 47 49 50 52 53 54 55 58 60 62 63 65 66 67 69 70 72 73 77 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 time per year 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 2 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 1 1 0 1 3 1 0 2 34 2 times per year 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 3 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 26 ParlorFrequency 4 times 6 times per year per year 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 3 1 time per month 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 15 2 times per month 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 time per week or more 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 Total 1 3 1 1 1 2 4 1 1 2 4 4 2 4 4 4 1 1 2 1 4 1 2 1 2 3 10 4 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 1 2 108 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 431.239a 233.269 9.336 329 329 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .000 1.000 1 .002 df 108 a. 384 cells (100. 0%) have ex pect ed c ount les s than 5. The minimum expected count is .01. 85 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.4 Variable 1: Eat at Dairy Queen: times per year Variable 2: Vendors that sell ice cream cakes We are 92.4% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. EatDQperYear * WherePurchaseA Crosstabulation Count WherePurchaseA EatDQperYear Total 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 15 Baskin Robbins 29 5 6 2 6 2 0 2 1 0 0 53 Dairy Queen 2 2 0 2 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 9 Cold Stone 6 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 12 Grocery Store 18 3 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 27 Total 55 12 10 6 8 2 3 2 1 1 1 101 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 41.718 a 37.880 .157 30 30 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .076 .153 1 .692 df 101 a. 39 cells (88.6% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .09. 86 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.5 Variable 1: Vendors that sell ice cream cakes Variable 2: Eat at Cold Stone: times per year We are 99.9% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. EatCSperYear * WherePurchaseA Crosstabulation Count WherePurchaseA EatCSperYear Total 0 1 2 3 4 5 8 10 12 24 80 Baskin Robbins 34 10 6 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 53 Dairy Queen 2 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 8 Cold Stone 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 12 Grocery Store 13 5 6 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 27 Total 52 20 15 2 2 2 1 1 3 1 1 100 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 58.499 a 41.065 1.823 30 30 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .001 .086 1 .177 df 100 a. 38 cells (86.4% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .08. 87 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.6 Variable 1: Vendor from which consumer is most likely to buy an ice cream cake Variable 2: Eat at Cold Stone: times per year We are 99.1% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. EatCSperYear * WhereLikelyPurchase Crosstabulation Count WhereLikelyPurchas e EatCSperYear Total 0 1 2 3 4 5 8 10 12 20 24 80 Baskin Robbins 31 9 7 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 49 Dairy Queen 3 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 7 Cold Stone 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 3 1 1 1 17 Grocery Store 13 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 Other Total 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 53 20 15 2 2 2 1 1 3 1 1 1 102 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 69.020 a 51.442 1.152 44 44 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .009 .205 1 .283 df 102 a. 54 cells (90.0% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .02. 88 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.7 Variable 1: Vendor from which consumer is most likely to buy an ice cream cake Variable 2: Buy ice cream cakes We are 99.99% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. Crosstab Count WhereLikelyPurchas e WherePurchaseA Total Baskin Robbins Dairy Queen Cold Stone Grocery Store Baskin Robbins 43 2 1 2 48 Dairy Queen 2 5 0 0 7 Cold Stone 1 1 11 3 16 Grocery Store 6 1 0 19 26 Other Total 1 0 0 1 2 53 9 12 25 99 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 141.054a 109.667 46.889 12 12 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .000 .000 1 .000 df 99 a. 14 cells (70.0% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .18. 89 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.8 Variable 1: Consumer level of awareness that Cold Stone Creamery makes ice cream cakes Variable 2: Vendors that sell ice cream cakes We are 99.99% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. CSAware * WherePurchaseA Crosstabulation Count WherePurchaseA CSAware Total Definately UnAware Very Unaware Unaware Aware Very Aware Definately Aware Baskin Robbins 42 2 1 2 0 6 53 Dairy Queen 4 2 0 1 0 1 8 Cold Stone 1 0 0 0 1 10 12 Grocery Store 17 3 1 0 0 6 27 Total 64 7 2 3 1 23 100 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 48.304 a 41.470 5.409 15 15 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .000 .000 1 .020 df 100 a. 18 cells (75.0% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .08. 90 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.9 Variable 1: Consumer level of awareness that Cold Stone Creamery makes ice cream cakes Variable 2: Vendor from which consumer is most likely to buy an ice cream cake We are 99.99% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. CSAware * WhereLikelyPurchase Crosstabulation Count WhereLikelyPurchas e CSAware Total Definately UnAware Very Unaware Unaware Aware Very Aware Definately Aware Baskin Robbins 40 1 1 2 0 5 49 Dairy Queen 3 3 0 0 0 1 7 Cold Stone 1 1 0 0 1 14 17 Grocery Store 19 2 2 1 0 3 27 Other Total 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 64 8 3 3 1 23 102 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 71.227 a 59.832 3.245 20 20 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .000 .000 1 .072 df 102 a. 25 cells (83.3% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .02. 91 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.10 Variable 1: Likelihood that consumer purchases next ice cream cake from Cold Stone Creamery Variable 2: Time since eating prepackaged ice cream We are 99.8% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. CSLikely * Tim eSince Pre Packaged Crosstabula tion Count CSLikely Total Less Than One W eek Definately Unlik ely 13 Very Unlik ely 6 Unlikely 5 As Lik ely as Unlikely 0 Lik ely 1 Very Likely 3 Definately Likely 6 34 More t han 1 week, Less than 1 Month 10 8 5 2 2 7 2 36 TimeSincePrePack aged 1 Month to 3 months t o 5 months t o les s than Less t han 5 les s than 7 3 months months months 11 2 3 3 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 1 0 3 21 5 6 11 months to 1 year 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 More t han one year 1 1 2 0 1 0 0 5 Total 40 19 16 3 5 13 12 108 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 64.948 a 38.033 .007 36 36 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .002 .377 1 .934 df 108 a. 42 cells (85.7% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .03. 92 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.11 Variable 1: Likelihood that consumer purchases next ice cream cake from Cold Stone Creamery Variable 2: Eat at Cold Stone: times per year We are 99% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. EatCSperYear * CSLikely Crosstabulation Count EatCSperYear Total 0 1 2 3 4 5 8 10 12 20 24 80 Definately Unlikely 23 6 8 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 Very Unlikely 13 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 Unlikely 9 4 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 CSLikely As Likely as Unlikely 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 Likely 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 Very Likely 2 5 2 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 13 Definately Likely 5 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 12 Total 58 20 15 2 2 2 1 1 3 1 1 1 107 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 95.423 a 64.951 11.400 66 66 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .010 .513 1 .001 df 107 a. 77 cells (91.7% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .03. 93 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.12 Variable 1: Likelihood that consumer purchases next ice cream cake from Cold Stone Creamery Variable 2: Buy ice cream cakes We are 93.6% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. Crosstab Count PurchaseIce CreamCakes Total 0 1 2 3 4 5 10 Definately Unlikely 29 6 1 1 0 0 1 38 Very Unlikely 14 1 4 0 0 0 0 19 Unlikely 13 1 1 1 0 0 0 16 CSLikely As Likely as Unlikely 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 Likely 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 Very Likely 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 13 Definately Likely 3 6 1 0 1 1 0 12 Total 72 19 10 2 1 1 1 106 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 49.679 a 44.052 2.570 36 36 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .064 .168 1 .109 df 106 a. 43 cells (87.8% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .03. 94 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.13 Variable 1: Likelihood that consumer purchases next ice cream cake from Cold Stone Creamery Variable 2: Event for which consumers purchase ice cream cakes We are 95.5% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. Crosstab Count W hyPurchaseA 0 Fun Birthday Party Barmit zfa Father's Day Monther's Day Holiday Self Family Vis its Total Definately Unlikely 0 0 31 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 34 Very Unlik ely 0 0 12 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 15 Unlikely 1 0 9 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 12 CSLikely As Lik ely as Unlikely 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 Lik ely 0 0 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 5 Very Likely 0 1 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 Definately Lik ely 0 0 10 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 11 Total 1 1 79 4 1 1 1 2 1 1 92 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 72.748 a 38.880 .563 54 54 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .045 .940 1 .453 df 92 a. 65 cells (92.9% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .03. 95 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.14 Variable 1: Likelihood that consumer purchases next ice cream cake from Cold Stone Creamery Variable 2: Vendor from which consumer is most likely to buy an ice cream cake We are 99.9% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. Crosstab Count W hereLikelyPurchase Baskin Robbins Dairy Queen Cold Stone Grocery St ore Ot her Total Definately Unlikely 20 3 1 15 0 39 Very Unlik ely 9 1 1 5 2 18 Unlikely 8 0 3 4 0 15 CSLikely As Lik ely as Unlikely 3 0 0 0 0 3 Lik ely 4 0 1 0 0 5 Very Likely 4 2 4 3 0 13 Definately Lik ely 2 1 7 0 0 10 Total 50 7 17 27 2 103 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 50.477 a 49.028 .000 24 24 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .001 .002 1 .999 df 103 a. 29 cells (82.9% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .06. 96 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.15 Variable 1: Make own ice cream cake: times per year Variable 2: Vendors that sell ice cream cakes We are 91.1% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. WherePurchaseA * MakeOwnCakes Crosstabulation Count 0 WherePurchaseA Total Baskin Robbins Dairy Queen Cold Stone Grocery Store 1 46 8 11 23 88 2 0 0 1 0 1 MakeOwnCakes 4 6 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 8 1 5 6 0 0 0 1 1 7 0 0 0 1 1 Total 0 1 0 0 1 53 9 12 27 101 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 26.516 a 19.724 .404 18 18 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .089 .349 1 .525 df 101 a. 24 cells (85.7% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .09. 97 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.16 Variable 1: Level of importance to consumer: price Variable 2: Vendors that sell ice cream cakes We are 90.4% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. W here Purcha seA * PriceI mportance Crosstabula tion Count W herePurc has eA Total Baskin Robbins Dairy Queen Cold Stone Grocery St ore Definat ely Unimportant 5 0 0 4 9 Very Unimportant 0 0 3 1 4 PriceImportanc e As Important as Unimportant Unimportant 4 7 1 2 0 2 3 4 8 15 Important 11 1 0 5 17 Very Important 7 2 2 5 16 Definat ely Important 19 3 5 5 32 Total 53 9 12 27 101 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 26.159 a 25.964 2.169 18 18 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .096 .101 1 .141 df 101 a. 23 cells (82.1% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .36. 98 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.17 Variable 1: Level of importance to consumer: taste Variable 2: Event for which consumers purchase ice cream cakes We are 99.9% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. WhyPurchaseA * TasteImportance Crosstabulation Count WhyPurchaseA Total 0 Fun Birthday Party Barmitzfa Father's Day Monther's Day Holiday Self Family Visits Very Unimportant 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Unimportant 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 TasteImportance As Important as Unimportant Important 0 1 0 1 1 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 10 Very Important 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 19 Definately Important 0 0 51 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 56 Total 1 1 79 4 1 1 1 2 1 1 92 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 81.115 a 38.215 2.115 45 45 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .001 .753 1 .146 df 92 a. 57 cells (95.0% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .02. 99 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.18 Variable 1: Level of importance to consumer: taste Variable 2: Vendor from which consumer is most likely to buy an ice cream cake We are 96% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. TasteImportance * WhereLikelyPurchase Crosstabulation Count WhereLikelyPurchas e TasteImportance Total Very Unimportant Unimportant As Important as Unimportant Important Very Important Definately Important Baskin Robbins 1 1 Dairy Queen 0 1 Cold Stone 0 0 Grocery Store 1 2 1 0 0 4 11 32 50 3 1 2 7 3 2 12 17 Other Total 0 0 2 4 2 1 4 2 7 13 27 1 0 0 2 13 21 59 103 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 32.294 a 24.837 3.170 20 20 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .040 .208 1 .075 df 103 a. 24 cells (80.0% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .04. 100 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.19 Variable 1: Level of importance to consumer: distance to vendor Variable 2: Vendors that sell ice cream cakes We are 93.2% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. Di stanceIm portance * Where PurchaseA Crosstabula tion Count W herePurc has eA DistanceImport anc e Definately Unimportant Very Unimportant Unimportant As Important as Unimportant Import ant Very Important Definately Important Total Baskin Robbins 2 0 7 Dairy Queen 0 2 0 Cold Stone 1 1 0 Grocery St ore 2 0 4 13 3 2 3 21 9 15 7 53 3 1 0 9 4 2 2 12 4 8 6 27 20 26 15 101 Total 5 3 11 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 27.618 a 26.858 .114 18 18 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .068 .082 1 .736 df 101 a. 20 cells (71.4% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .27. 101 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.20 Variable 1: Level of importance to consumer: level of customization Variable 2: Vendors that sell ice cream cakes We are 91.7% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. Custom iza tionImporta nce * W herePurchaseA Crosstabulation Count W herePurc has eA CustomizationImportance Definat ely Unimportant Very Unimportant Unimportant As Important as Unimportant Important Very Important Definat ely Important Total Baskin Robbins 6 4 9 Dairy Queen 0 0 0 Cold Stone 0 1 0 Grocery St ore 3 4 3 7 1 2 5 15 12 12 3 53 3 1 4 9 5 0 4 12 4 2 6 27 24 15 17 101 Total 9 9 12 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 26.815 a 32.767 .199 18 18 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .083 .018 1 .655 df 101 a. 22 cells (78.6% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .80. 102 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.21 Variable 1: Ice cream cake for 16 people: consumer price expectation Variable 2: Vendors that sell ice cream cakes We are 96.5% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. PayForCake * WherePurchaseA Crosstabulation Count WherePurchaseA PayForCake Total $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $12.50 $12.99 $13.00 $15.00 $16.00 $17.00 $17.50 $18.00 $20.00 $20.25 $21.00 $22.50 $22.53 $24.00 $25.00 $27.50 $29.00 $30.00 $32.50 $35.00 $40.00 Baskin Robbins 0 2 2 3 1 0 7 0 1 1 0 11 4 0 1 0 0 9 1 1 5 0 3 1 53 Dairy Queen 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 9 Cold Stone 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 12 Grocery Store 1 4 2 0 0 2 6 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 4 0 0 2 0 2 0 27 Total 1 8 4 3 1 2 14 3 1 1 1 18 6 2 1 1 1 15 1 1 9 1 5 1 101 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 91.745 a 78.276 2.172 69 69 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .035 .208 1 .141 df 101 a. 93 cells (96.9% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .09. 103 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.22 Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior taste Variable 2: Event for which consumers purchase ice cream cakes We are 99.99% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. Ta stePayMore * W hyPurchaseA Crosstabula tion Count 0 TastePayMore 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Fun 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 Birthday 3 5 0 8 18 17 28 79 Party 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 W hyPurchaseA Barmit zfa Father's Day 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 Monther's Day 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 Holiday 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 Self 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Family Vis its 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Total 5 5 1 8 23 19 31 92 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 142.173a 39.001 5.541 54 54 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .000 .938 1 .019 df 92 a. 66 cells (94.3% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .01. 104 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.23 Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior taste Variable 2: Vendor from which consumer is most likely to buy an ice cream cake We are 98.1% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. TastePayMore * WhereLikelyPurchase Crosstabulation Count WhereLikelyPurchas e TastePayMore Total 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Baskin Robbins 3 4 0 4 11 12 16 50 Dairy Queen 1 0 0 0 2 0 4 7 Cold Stone 0 0 0 3 4 3 7 17 Grocery Store 2 1 1 2 7 5 9 27 Other Total 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 6 5 2 10 24 20 36 103 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 40.534 a 26.121 .049 24 24 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .019 .347 1 .826 df 103 a. 28 cells (80.0% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .04. 105 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.24 Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with superior visual appeal Variable 2: Event for which consumers purchase ice cream cakes We are 99.8% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. Crosstab Count 1 WhyPurchaseA Total 0 Fun Birthday Party Barmitzfa Father's Day Monther's Day Holiday Self Family Visits 2 0 0 6 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 8 3 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 Vis ualPayMore 4 0 1 0 0 3 14 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 5 18 5 6 0 0 22 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 24 7 0 0 19 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 Total 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 1 1 79 4 1 1 1 2 1 1 92 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 88.300 a 45.545 3.175 54 54 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .002 .787 1 .075 df 92 a. 65 cells (92.9% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .03. 106 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.25 Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior level of customization Variable 2: Event for which consumers purchase ice cream cakes We are 99.9% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. Crosstab Count 1 WhyPurchaseA Total 0 Fun Birthday Party Barmitzfa Father's Day Monther's Day Holiday Self Family Visits 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 0 1 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 CustomizationPayMore 4 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 7 15 25 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 19 25 6 7 0 0 15 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 Total 0 0 12 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 14 1 1 79 4 1 1 1 2 1 1 92 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 94.693 a 48.571 4.337 54 54 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .001 .683 1 .037 df 92 a. 64 cells (91.4% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .03. 107 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.26 Variable 1: Level of importance to consumer: level of customization Variable 2: Vendors that sell ice cream cakes We are 99% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. Crosstab Count 1 WherePurchaseA Total Baskin Robbins Dairy Queen Cold Stone Grocery Store 2 2 0 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 4 7 CustomizationPayMore 4 5 6 12 15 1 1 0 2 0 8 1 9 4 10 22 27 6 7 9 2 0 5 16 Total 6 5 2 3 16 53 9 12 27 101 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 34.644 a 37.823 .173 18 18 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .010 .004 1 .678 df 101 a. 21 cells (75.0% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .27. 108 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.27 Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes bought from a closer vendor to the vendor Variable 2: Event for which consumers purchase ice cream cakes We are 92.7% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. W hyPurchase A * Distance Pa yMore Crosstabulation Count 1 W hyPurchaseA 0 Fun Birthday Party Barmit zfa Father's Day Monther's Day Holiday Self Family Vis its Total 2 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 3 0 0 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 5 DistancePayMore 4 0 0 0 0 6 10 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 11 5 6 1 1 20 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 24 7 0 0 18 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 22 Total 0 0 17 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 18 1 1 79 4 1 1 1 2 1 1 92 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 69.772 a 42.292 1.618 54 54 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .073 .876 1 .203 df 92 a. 65 cells (92.9% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .05. 109 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.28 Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes for more important events Variable 2: Event for which consumers purchase ice cream cakes We are 99.9% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. W hyPurchase A * Eve ntIm portancePa yMore Crosstabula tion Count 1 W hyPurchaseA 0 Fun Birthday Party Barmit zfa Father's Day Monther's Day Holiday Self Family Vis its Total 2 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 EventImportanc ePayMore 3 4 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 3 15 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 17 6 7 0 0 23 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 26 Total 0 0 30 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 34 1 1 79 4 1 1 1 2 1 1 92 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 92.940 a 40.548 .309 54 54 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .001 .912 1 .579 df 92 a. 67 cells (95.7% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .02. 110 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.29 Variable 1: Gender Variable 2: Time since eating at an ice cream parlor We are 95.8% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. Crosstab Count TimeS inceParlor Less Than One Week More t han 1 week, Less than 1 Month 1 Mont h to less than 3 months 3 mont hs t o Less than 5 months 5 mont hs t o les s than 7 mont hs 7 mont hs t o les s than 9 mont hs 11 months to 1 year More t han one year Gender Female Male 4 8 Total Total 12 10 7 17 13 6 19 11 2 13 12 2 14 0 1 1 6 11 67 8 7 41 14 18 108 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 14.575 a 15.565 .003 7 7 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .042 .029 1 .960 df 108 a. 4 c ells (25.0%) have ex pec ted c ount les s than 5. The minimum expected count is .38. 111 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.30 Variable 1: Gender Variable 2: Vendors that sell ice cream cakes We are 94.8% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. Crosstab Count WherePurchaseA Gender Female Male 38 15 4 5 9 3 12 15 63 38 Baskin Robbins Dairy Queen Cold Stone Grocery Store Total Total 53 9 12 27 101 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 7.710a 7.653 4.232 3 3 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .052 .054 1 .040 df 101 a. 2 c ells (25.0%) have ex pec ted c ount les s than 5. The minimum expected count is 3.39. 112 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.31 Variable 1: Gender Variable 2: Level of importance to consumer: price We are 92.9% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. PriceImportance * Gender Crosstabulation Count PriceImportance Definately Unimportant Very Unimportant Unimportant As Important as Unimportant Important Very Important Definately Important Gender Female Male 4 5 4 0 3 5 Total Total 9 4 8 7 10 17 13 12 24 67 8 5 8 41 21 17 32 108 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 11.628 a 12.917 4.061 6 6 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .071 .044 1 .044 df 108 a. 5 c ells (35.7%) have ex pec ted c ount les s than 5. The minimum expected count is 1.52. 113 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.32 Variable 1: Gender Variable 2: Level of importance to consumer: taste We are 97.4% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. TasteImportance * Gender Crosstabulation Count TasteImportance Very Unimportant Unimportant As Important as Unimportant Important Very Important Definately Important Gender Female Male 2 0 0 4 Total Total 2 4 1 3 4 9 18 37 67 5 5 24 41 14 23 61 108 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 12.740 a 14.794 1.043 5 5 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .026 .011 1 .307 df 108 a. 6 c ells (50.0%) have ex pec ted c ount les s than 5. The minimum expected count is .76. 114 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.33 Variable 1: Gender Variable 2: Level of importance to consumer: visual appeal We are 97.4% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. DecorationImportance * Gender Crosstabulation Count DecorationImportance Definately Unimportant Very Unimportant Unimportant As Important as Unimportant Important Very Important Definately Important Gender Female Male 6 7 8 2 6 11 Total Total 13 10 17 10 7 17 13 14 10 67 8 1 5 41 21 15 15 108 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 14.375 a 15.983 3.765 6 6 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .026 .014 1 .052 df 108 a. 2 c ells (14.3%) have ex pec ted c ount les s than 5. The minimum expected count is 3.80. 115 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.34 Variable 1: Gender Variable 2: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior taste We are 92% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. Ta stePayMore * Gender Crosstabula tion Count TastePayMore 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Gender Female Male 3 3 3 2 0 2 10 0 18 8 12 10 21 16 67 41 Total 6 5 2 10 26 22 37 108 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 11.299 a 15.323 .182 6 6 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .080 .018 1 .669 df 108 a. 7 c ells (50.0%) have ex pec ted c ount les s than 5. The minimum expected count is .76. 116 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.35 Variable 1: Gender Variable 2: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes for more important events We are 99% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. EventI mportanceP ayMore * Gender Crosstabulati on Count EventImportanc ePayMore 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Gender Female Male 2 4 1 3 3 1 1 3 13 11 25 3 22 16 67 41 Total 6 4 4 4 24 28 38 108 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 16.780 a 18.364 3.671 6 6 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .010 .005 1 .055 df 108 a. 8 c ells (57.1%) have ex pec ted c ount les s than 5. The minimum expected count is 1.52. 117 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.36 Variable 1: Income Variable 2: Event for which consumers purchase ice cream cakes We are 99.3% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. IncomeAnnual * WhyPurchaseA Crosstabulation Count 0 IncomeAnnual Total $12,000.00 $16,800.00 $18,000.00 $20,000.00 $23,000.00 $32,000.00 $35,000.00 $37,000.00 $40,000.00 $42,000.00 $45,000.00 $48,000.00 $50,000.00 $56,000.00 $60,000.00 $62,500.00 $65,000.00 $70,000.00 $71,000.00 $72,000.00 $73,000.00 $75,000.00 $80,000.00 $82,000.00 $84,805.00 $85,000.00 $95,000.00 $100,000.00 $120,000.00 $150,000.00 $160,000.00 $190,000.00 $300,000.00 $1,000,000.00 Fun 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Birthday 0 1 1 3 1 1 4 1 4 1 1 0 4 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 3 2 18 2 1 6 5 2 1 1 0 1 79 Party 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 WhyPurchaseA Barmitzfa Father's Day 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 Monther's Day 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Holiday 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Self 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Family Visits 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Total 1 1 1 3 1 2 4 1 5 1 2 1 4 1 4 1 1 3 1 1 1 4 3 2 20 3 1 7 5 3 1 1 1 1 92 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 360.386a 79.071 .515 297 297 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .007 1.000 1 .473 df 92 a. 338 cells (99.4%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected count is .01. 118 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.37 Variable 1: Income Variable 2: Likelihood that consumer purchases next ice cream cake from Cold Stone Creamery We are 99.8% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. IncomeAnnual * CSLikely Crosstabulation Count IncomeAnnual Total $12,000.00 $16,800.00 $18,000.00 $20,000.00 $23,000.00 $25,000.00 $30,000.00 $32,000.00 $35,000.00 $37,000.00 $40,000.00 $42,000.00 $45,000.00 $48,000.00 $50,000.00 $56,000.00 $60,000.00 $62,500.00 $65,000.00 $70,000.00 $71,000.00 $72,000.00 $73,000.00 $75,000.00 $80,000.00 $82,000.00 $84,805.00 $85,000.00 $95,000.00 $100,000.00 $120,000.00 $150,000.00 $160,000.00 $190,000.00 $300,000.00 $1,000,000.00 Definately Unlikely 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 3 0 3 0 0 1 4 0 1 0 0 3 0 1 1 3 0 0 8 1 0 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 40 Very Unlikely 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 1 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 19 Unlikely 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 16 CSLikely As Likely as Unlikely 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 Likely 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 Very Likely 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 2 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 13 Definately Likely 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 12 Total 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 2 5 1 5 1 3 1 6 1 4 1 2 4 1 1 1 4 3 2 26 3 1 8 6 3 1 1 1 1 108 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 274.669a 167.965 .113 210 210 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .002 .985 1 .736 df 108 a. 251 cells (99.6%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected count is .03. 119 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.38 Variable 1: Eat at Dairy Queen: times per year Variable 2: Time since eating at an ice cream parlor We are 99.99% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. EatDQperYear * TimeSinceParlor Crosstabulation Count EatDQperYear Total 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 15 Less Than One Week 6 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 0 12 More than 1 week, Less than 1 Month 7 0 1 2 4 2 0 1 0 0 0 17 1 Month to les s than 3 months 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 TimeSinceParlor 3 months to 5 months to Less than 5 les s than 7 months months 7 13 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 13 14 7 months to les s than 9 months 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 11 months to 1 year 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 14 More than one year 14 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 Total 61 12 10 6 8 3 3 2 1 1 1 108 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 125.915a 89.219 7.453 70 70 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .000 .060 1 .006 df 108 a. 81 cells (92.0% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .01. 120 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.39 Variable 1: Eat at Cold Stone: times per year Variable 2: Parlor eating frequency We are 99.99% confident that this is a significant association that should be further investigated to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. EatCSperYear * ParlorFrequency Crosstabulation Count 0 EatCSperYear Total 0 1 2 3 4 5 8 10 12 20 24 80 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 time per year 23 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 34 2 times per year 14 4 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 ParlorFrequency 4 times 6 times per year per year 7 3 3 0 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 3 1 time per month 6 2 3 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 15 2 times per month 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 5 1 time per week or more 4 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 9 Total 58 20 15 2 2 2 1 1 3 1 1 1 107 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 142.582a 91.212 14.666 77 77 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .000 .128 1 .000 df 107 a. 91 cells (94.8% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .01. 121 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.40 Variable 1: Buy ice cream cakes Variable 2: Parlor eating frequency We are 89% confident that this is a significant association; however, this does not meet the standards of 90% confidences that we are using in this report. But further investigation should be used to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. PurchaseIceCreamCakes * ParlorFrequency Crosstabulation Count 0 PurchaseIce CreamCakes Total 0 1 2 3 4 5 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 time per year 28 4 1 1 0 0 0 34 2 times per year 20 3 2 0 0 0 0 25 ParlorFrequency 4 times 6 times per year per year 10 2 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 3 1 time per month 5 4 4 1 0 0 0 14 2 times per month 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 time per week or more 3 2 1 0 1 1 1 9 Total 72 19 10 2 1 1 1 106 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 53.468 a 36.068 17.789 42 42 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .110 .728 1 .000 df 106 a. 50 cells (89.3% ) have expected count less t han 5. The minimum expected count is .01. 122 STRONWIN CONSULTING AC.41 Variable 1: Eat at Baskin-Robbins: times per year Variable 2: Parlor eating frequency We are 89.6% confident that this is a significant association; however, this does not meet the standards of 90% confidences that we are using in this report. But further investigation should be used to see if a time ordered relationship and correlation exist between these variables. Ea tBRperYear * ParlorFre que ncy Crossta bul ation Count 0 EatBRperYear Total 0 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 10 12 16 20 24 100 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 t ime per year 24 0 7 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 34 2 t imes per year 17 1 3 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 ParlorFrequenc y 4 t imes 6 t imes per year per year 8 0 0 0 3 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 3 1 t ime per month 4 0 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 15 2 t imes per month 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 5 1 t ime per week or more 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 9 Total 57 1 18 10 2 1 1 4 1 3 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 108 Chi-Square Te sts Pearson Chi-Square Lik elihood Ratio Linear-by-Linear As soc iation N of Valid Cases Value 131.157a 92.787 12.848 112 112 As ymp. Sig. (2-sided) .104 .907 1 .000 df 108 a. 131 cells (96.3%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected count is .01. 123 STRONWIN CONSULTING Appendix D Unclear Correlations NOTE: This section contains weak correlations that are strong enough for regression (Pearson Correlation value between 0.2 and 0.45) that are unclear. One, two or all of three specific things that make them unclear: The correlations are spurious (caused by a third variable) The time-ordered relationship can not be clearly identified Causation can not be determined (which variable causes the other) Several of these correlations could prove to be valuable to Cold Stone Creamery in the company’s marketing endeavors. We would encourage Cold Stone Creamery to evaluate these correlations and study them further in future studies. 124 STRONWIN CONSULTING FU.1 Variable 1: Level of importance to consumer: Level of Customization Variable 2: Eat at Dairy Queen: times per year Correlations CustomizationImportance EatDQperYear Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Customization Importance 1 108 .202* .036 108 EatDQper Year .202* .036 108 1 108 *. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). FU.2 Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with superior visual appeal Variable 2: Level of importance to consumer: Level of Customization Correlations Vis ualPay More Vis ualPayMore CustomizationImportance Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Customization Importance 1 .287** .003 108 108 .287** 1 .003 108 108 **. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). 125 STRONWIN CONSULTING FU.3 Variable 1: Level of importance to consumer: Level of Customization Variable 2: Eat at Cold Stone: times per year Correlations CustomizationImportance EatCSperYear Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Customization Importance 1 108 .214* .027 107 EatCSperYear .214* .027 107 1 107 *. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). FU.4 Variable 1: Level of importance to consumer: Level of Customization Variable 2: Level of importance to consumer: Visual Appeal Correlations CustomizationImportance DecorationImportance Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Customization Importance 1 108 .307** .001 108 Decoration Importance .307** .001 108 1 108 **. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). 126 STRONWIN CONSULTING FU.5 Variable 1: Level of importance to consumer: Level of Customization Variable 2: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with superior visual appeal Correlations CustomizationImportance Vis ualPayMore Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Customization Importance 1 108 .287** .003 108 Vis ualPay More .287** .003 108 1 108 **. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). FU.6 Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior taste Variable 2: Level of importance to consumer: Level of Customization Correlations TastePayMore CustomizationImportance Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Customization Importance .211* .028 108 108 .211* 1 .028 108 108 TastePayMore 1 *. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). 127 STRONWIN CONSULTING FU.7 Variable 1: Level of importance to consumer: Price Variable 2: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with superior visual appeal Correlations Vis ualPay More Vis ualPayMore PriceImportance Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 1 108 .232* .016 108 Price Importance .232* .016 108 1 108 *. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). FU.8 Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior taste Variable 2: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with superior visual appeal Correlations Vis ualPay More Vis ualPayMore TastePayMore Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N TastePayMore .322** .001 108 108 .322** 1 .001 108 108 1 **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). 128 STRONWIN CONSULTING FU.9 Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior level of customization Variable 2: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior taste Correlations CustomizationPayMore TastePayMore Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Customizati onPayMore 1 TastePayMore .375** .000 108 108 .375** 1 .000 108 108 **. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). FU.10 Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior level of customization Variable 2: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes for more important events Correl ations Event Importance PayMore EventImportanc ePayMore Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N CustomizationPayMore Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Customizati onPay More 1 .264** .006 108 108 .264** 1 .006 108 108 **. Correlation is s ignificant at t he 0.01 level (2-t ailed). FU.11 129 STRONWIN CONSULTING Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with superior visual appeal Variable 2: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes for more important events Correl ations Event Import ance PayMore EventImportanc ePayMore Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N DistancePayMore Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 1 108 .215* .025 108 DistancePay More .215* .025 108 1 108 *. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). FU.12 Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes for more important events Variable 2: Level of importance to consumer: Price Correl ations Event Import ance PayMore EventImportanc ePayMore Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N PriceImportanc e Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 1 108 .223* .020 108 Price Import ance .223* .020 108 1 108 *. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). FU.13 130 STRONWIN CONSULTING Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes for more important events Variable 2: Level of importance to consumer: Visual Appeal Correl ations Event Import ance PayMore EventImportanc ePayMore Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N DecorationImportance Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 1 108 .242* .012 108 Decoration Import ance .242* .012 108 1 108 *. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). FU.14 Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes for more important events Variable 2: Level of importance to consumer: Taste Correl ations Event Import ance PayMore EventImportanc ePayMore Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N TastePayMore Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N TastePayMore .237* .014 108 108 .237* 1 .014 108 108 1 *. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). 131 STRONWIN CONSULTING FU.15 Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior level of customization Variable 2: Make own ice cream cake: times per year Correlations CustomizationPayMore MakeOwnCakes Customizati onPayMore 1 Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 108 .228* .018 108 MakeOwn Cakes .228* .018 108 1 108 *. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). FU.16 Variable 1: Make own ice cream cake: times per year Variable 2: Eat at Baskin-Robbins: times per year This correlation appears to be spurious. Further research should seek to determine if the two variables have a time ordered relationship or if the correlation is spurious. When we removed the outlier from the data—one respondent said that they eat at Baskin-Robbins 100 times per year—we found that there was no longer a correlation between the variables strong enough to run a regression (0.2 is the minimum strength to run the regression). The first chart shows the correlation with the outlier and the second chart shows the correlation without the outlier. Correlations Age Age EatBRperYear Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 1 108 -.203* .035 108 EatBRperYear -.203* .035 108 1 108 *. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). Correl ations EatBRperYear Age Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N EatBRperYear 1 107 -.160 .099 107 Age -.160 .099 107 1 107 132 STRONWIN CONSULTING FU.17 Variable 1: Age Variable 2: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior level of customization This correlation appears to be spurious. Further research should seek to determine if the two variables have a time ordered relationship or if the correlation is spurious. However, we suspect this to be a spurious relationship not because of the values—it is probable that older people would be less willing to pay extra for customizing an ice cream cake—but instead we think this to be a spurious correlation because it is so weak and because a 40 year age difference only results in a one point change on the scale of 1 to 7. In this case, our classifying this as spurious data was based upon both the weak correlation and the results of the regression. Therefore, we have included both the correlation and the regression charts in FU.17. Correlations Customizati onPayMore 1 -.273** .004 108 108 -.273** 1 .004 108 108 Age Age CustomizationPayMore Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N **. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). Model Summ ary Change St atist ics Model 1 R R Square .273a .074 Adjust ed R Square .066 St d. Error of the Es timate 1.491 R Square Change .074 F Change 8.518 df1 1 df2 106 Sig. F Change .004 a. Predic tors: (Constant), Age Coeffi cientsa Model 1 (Const ant) Age Unstandardized Coeffic ients B St d. Error 5.794 .377 -.025 .008 St andardiz ed Coeffic ients Beta -.273 t 15.386 -2. 918 Sig. .000 .004 a. Dependent Variable: CustomizationPayMore 133 STRONWIN CONSULTING FU.18 Variable 1: Ice cream cake for 16 people: Consumer price expectation Variable 2: Level of importance to consumer: Level of Customization Correlations PayForCake CustomizationImportance Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Customization Importance .212* .028 108 108 .212* 1 .028 108 108 PayForCake 1 *. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). FU.19 Variable 1: Level of importance to consumer: Taste Variable 2: Consumer level of awareness that Cold Stone Creamery makes ice cream cakes This is a weak correlation, but it is positive. Therefore, it would appear that a person who is more aware that Cold Stone Creamery makes ice cream cakes would place a greater level of importance on the taste of an ice cream cake when making a purchase decision. However, the reverse could also be true that the consumer that places a greater importance on taste may be more aware that Cold Stone Creamery makes ice cream cakes. Additionally, this could be a spurious correlation. Further studies should try to discover the time-ordered or cause and effect relationship with these two variables if one exists. Correlations Taste Importance TasteImportance CSAware Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 1 108 .211* .029 107 CSAware .211* .029 107 1 107 *. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). 134 STRONWIN CONSULTING FU.20 Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior taste Variable 2: Eat at Cold Stone: times per year Correlations TastePayMore CSAware Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N TastePayMore 1 108 .243* .012 107 CSAware .243* .012 107 1 107 *. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). Model Summ ary Change St atist ics Model 1 R R Square .243a .059 Adjust ed R Square .050 St d. Error of the Es timate 1.665 R Square Change .059 F Change 6.569 df1 1 df2 105 Sig. F Change .012 a. Predic tors: (Constant), CSAware Coeffi cientsa Model 1 (Const ant) CSAware Unstandardized Coeffic ients B St d. Error 4.948 .234 .167 .065 St andardiz ed Coeffic ients Beta .243 t 21.146 2.563 Sig. .000 .012 a. Dependent Variable: TastePayMore 135 STRONWIN CONSULTING FU.21 Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with superior visual appeal Variable 2: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with a superior level of customization There is a strong correlation between willingness to pay 10% more for a better visual appeal and willingness to pay 10% more for a better ability to customize. However, for this correlation to mean something it must be investigated further. This may be a spurious relationship or there may be no time ordered relationship. Further investigation should begin by trying to identify the time ordered relationship if one exists. Once a time ordered relationship has been determined and the correlation can be shown not to be spurious, then a regression can be run to better describe the correlation between the two variables. Correlations Vis ualPay More Vis ualPayMore CustomizationPayMore Customizati onPayMore 1 .452** .000 108 108 .452** 1 .000 108 108 Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N **. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). FU.22 Variable 1: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes with superior visual appeal Variable 2: Willingness to pay 10% premium for ice cream cakes for more important events There is a strong correlation between willingness to pay 10% more for a better visual appeal and willingness to pay 10% more purchasing an ice cream cake for a more important event. However, for this correlation to mean something it must be investigated further. This may be a spurious relationship or there may be no time ordered relationship. Further investigation should begin by trying to identify the time ordered relationship if one exists. Once a time ordered relationship has been determined and the correlation can be shown not to be spurious, then a regression can be run to better describe the correlation between the two variables Correl ations VisualPay More VisualPayMore Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N EventImportanc ePayMore Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 1 108 .531** .000 108 Event Import ance PayMore .531** .000 108 1 108 **. Correlation is s ignificant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). 136 STRONWIN CONSULTING Appendix E Recommendation Justification NOTE: This section explains our recommendation that Cold Stone Creamery do more things to publicize its ice cream cake sales to its current customers. Mr. Nielsen suggested to us that 53% of Cold Stone Creamery customers do not know that Cold Stone Creamery makes and sells ice cream cakes. The suggestions below were created by the focus groups and Stronwin Consulting after studying the marketing techniques of other ice cream cake retailers. 137 STRONWIN CONSULTING Will more people buy ice cream cakes if they are aware that Cold Stone makes cakes? We found that 65 out of 108 people surveyed suggested that Baskin-Robbins makes ice cream cakes, while only 18 out of 100 suggested that Cold Stone makes ice cream cakes. Cold Stone has slightly less than four times as much awareness in the market as does Baskin-Robbins. People who eat at Baskin-Robbins more often are more likely to purchase an ice cream cake. This relationship is both strongly associated and correlated. In fact, we found that for each additional time that a person eats at Baskin-Robbins, they purchase 0.092 more ice cream cakes. In other words, if a person eats seven to eight times per year at Baskin-Robbins, they will purchase one ice cream cake. They will purchase one additional ice cream cake if they eat at Baskin-Robbins 11 additional times during the year. These numbers have a significance level of 0.000. The R value of 0.719 shows a strong correlation between these two variables. How does this apply to Cold Stone? Using cross-tabulation, we find that there is a relationship that is significant at the 0.000 level between the frequency of a person eating at Cold Stone and the number of times they purchase ice cream cakes in a year. The R value is approximately half of that of Baskin-Robbins at 0.328. Thus, the correlation is weak, especially in comparison to the correlation between ice cream cake purchases and eating at Baskin-Robbins. Why is there a difference in the strength of correlation? The difference is found in market awareness of the companies’ respective ice cream cake production. We found that 60.12% (65/108) of the population of Salt Lake County is aware that Baskin-Robbins makes ice cream cakes. However, when we asked Salt Lake County consumers to tell us where ice cream cakes could be purchased, only 16.7% (18/108) told us that Cold Stone Creamery sells ice cream cakes. RECOMMENDATION: Therefore, we recommend that Cold Stone Creamery more effectively advertise the fact that it sells ice cream cakes. Our focus groups had some suggestions for Cold Stone, as do we. Place the cake freezer in a location where people can easily notice that there is a freezer full of ice cream cakes. When people walk into a Cold Stone store, they have to turn 90% to notice the cooler, which is not even full of cakes. The focus groups repeatedly mentioned that BaskinRobbins and Dairy Queen cakes are very visible when you walk into the store. It seems that Cold Stone tucks its coolers in a place where the cakes are easily ignored. Therefore, Cold Stone needs to reposition the ice cream cooler case where it is very visible and easily accessible. Cold Stone also needs to make sure that the coolers have a broad range of available cakes to purchase. Place a book of possible cakes (with color pictures) on a stand near the front of the line so that customers can browse the book and familiarize themselves with Cold Stone cakes while waiting to purchase creations. 138 STRONWIN CONSULTING Put an advertisement about Cold Stone’s cakes underneath a clear table cloth on the tables that are available for customers to eat at. Also, a stand-up advertisement about the cakes placed on the table would be very effective to get customer awareness. Sell cakes by the slice to those who come in. These items are high profit margin, and selling it by the slice would also increase awareness. 139 STRONWIN CONSULTING Appendix F Margin of Error Calculation NOTE: This section explains how our margin of error was calculated and details the value for the margin of error at +/- 4%. 140 STRONWIN CONSULTING Margin of Error The margin of error for our questionnaire results was + or – 5%. To get this value, we used the following formula: Interval p 1 p Z n This equation has three different variables: n. This is the actual number of people who responded to the survey, in our case 108. Z. This is the Z-score associated with the level of confidence chosen. For our survey, we chose the level of confidence at 95%. The Z-score for a 95% confidence interval is 1.96. p. This is an estimate of the percentage of respondents answering a particular survey question. Because we were able to interview each respondent, we handed out candy, and asked an inducement question, we were able to significantly raise the percentage of respondents who answered each question. Because we followed these methods, we got a respondent answer rate of about 90%. If we plug these values into the above formula, n = 108, Z = 1.96, and p = .90, we get a margin of error at + or – 4%. 141 STRONWIN CONSULTING Appendix G Sample Size Calculation NOTE: This section explains how we calculated the sample size needed for our survey. We calculated a sample size of 37 in order to obtain a 95% confidence interval. However, we finished the survey with 108 responses. 142 STRONWIN CONSULTING Sample Size To be able to accurately project the results of a survey question from the sample to the entire population of the target market the correct sample size must be used. This depends on several variables, which are listed below in the sample size equation. Z 2 2 in which: n E2 n = Sample Size Z = Level of Significance (Expressed as a Z-Score) = Population Standard Deviation (2 = Population Variance) E = Margin of Error Below is the calculation of the sample size for this project, along with the Z variable, standard deviation, and margin of error values. This sample size calculation is based on a pre-survey of the amount that consumers would expect to pay for an ice cream cake that serves 16 people. Although a sample size of 37 would have been sufficient, our sample included 108 responses. Sample Size Calculation Sample size in statistical theory is dependent on the three variables: 1 Significance level wanted If you want a 95% significance level (which is a z score of 1.96), then the z squared value is 3.8416. If you want a 90% significance level (which is a z score of 1.645), then the z squared value is 2.706. 20 15 18 15 2 The variance of the sample (often calculated from a presample) 20 3 The allowable error or margin of error (determined by client) 15 Sample Size = Z squared value * variance / margin of error squared Z² = 3.846 (this is probably 3.8416 or 2.706) σ²= OR 27.267 n= (Z² * σ² / E²) margin of error= 30 20 10 1.7 15 (this is the standard deviation squared) 10 SAMPLE SIZE= 36.28787636 The variance of the sample is the standard deviation squared. The variance should be determined from either a previous study or should be calcuated by doing a pre-survey, in which you can determine the standard deviation and sqaure it. 15 20 20 10 5.221749 27.26667 143 STRONWIN CONSULTING Appendix H Table of Associations and Correlations NOTE: This section contains a table that shows the significant associations and the correlations between all of the variables. Also, this table clearly shows which variables are not associated or correlated. 144 STRONWIN CONSULTING Table of Associations & Correlations TSP PF TPP PPF ABR ADQ ACS BIC EVT WC WL CSA LCS MOI PI TI VI DI CI $$$ TE VE CE DE EIE G A I S X X X RW X X X X X X X W X X X X W X RW W X X X 0.042 X X X X RW X RW RW X X X X X X X X X X W X X X X X X X RW X TPP S X X X W X X X X 0.02 X X X X X X X W RW X X X X X X PPF X X W X X X X X X X X X X X W X X X X X X X X X ABR X X S X X X X X RW X X X X X X X X X W W X RW X ADQ W X X 0.076 X W X X X W X X RW X W X X X X X X X ACS RW X 0.001 0.009 RW 0.01 X X X X X RW X X X X X X X X X BIC X X X X 0.064 RW X X X W X X X X X X X X X W X X X 0.045 X X 0.001 X X X X 0 0.002 0.001 0.073 0.001 X X 0.007 WC 0 0 X 0.089 0.096 X X 0.068 0.083 0.035 X X 0.01 X X 0.052 X X WL 0 0.001 X X 0.04 X X X X 0.019 X X X X X X X CSA X X X RW X X X X RW X X X W X X X LCS X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 0.002 X RW X X X X X W RW X X X X X PI X W X X W X RW X X RW 0.071 X X TI X X W W RW X X X X 0.026 W X VI X RW X X RW W X RW 0.026 X X DI X X X X X RW X X W W CI RW RW RW S X W X W X $$$ X X X X X X X X TE RW RW X RW 0.08 X X VE S X S 0 X X CE X RW X RW W DE RW X X W EIE 0.01 X X G X X A X PF EVT MOI I This table shows the associations and strength of relationships between all variables in the study. Letter entries are clarified in the table below. Numbers in the table (multiplied by 100) represent the percent probability that these associations are not significant. $$$ A ABR ACS ADQ BIC CE CI CSA DE DI EIE EVT G I LCS Amount expect to pay for ice cream cake (16 servings) Age Annual times respondent eats at Baskin-Robbins Annual times respondent eats at Cold Stone Annual times respondent eats at Dairy Queen Annual purchases of ice cream cakes Willingness to pay more for an ice cream cake that has more customization options Importance of customization options Respondent awareness that Cold Stone makes ice cream cakes Willingness to pay 10 % more for an ice cream cake that can be purchased from a vendor closer to respondent Importance of distance to vendor MOI Annual ice cream cakes respondent makes PF PI PPF RW S TE TI TPP Frequency of eating at ice cream parlor Importance of price to respondent Frequency of eating prepackaged ice cream Weak regression, strong enough for a correlation Strong correlation, regression included in report Willingness to pay more for an ice cream cake with a superior taste Importance of taste to respondent Time since eating prepackaged ice cream TSP Time since eating ice cream at a parlor VE Willingness to pay more when ice cream cake is for a more important event Event for which and ice cream cake is purchased Gender Annual Income How likely respondent to buy next ice cream cake from Cold Stone VI Willingness to pay more for an ice cream cake with a better visual appeal Importance of visual appeal to respondent W WC WL X Weak Correlation, not strong enough for a regression Where you can buy an ice cream cake Where respondent likely to buy ice cream cake No significant relationship or association 145 STRONWIN CONSULTING Appendix I Z-Test NOTE: This section explains the method for conducting a z-test. The z-test is used to determine if the difference between two means is significant. 146 STRONWIN CONSULTING Z-Test The z-test is a test is designed to test the statistical significance of the difference between two means. To be able to conduct any of the various types of z-tests one must have at least 30 data points for the test results to be valid. Z-test is one that can be conducted to test the statistical significance of the difference in means between two sets of data. The equation for a z-test: and: For a 95% confidence interval, if the z is greater than 1.96 or less than -1.96, it means that p<.05, and the difference is statistically significant. We used Microsoft Excel ® to conduct all of the ztests for our report. Although we conducted many z-tests, we have only included one z-test chart in this report. The other tests are simply mentioned. The others can be found on the CD included with the report. 147