Met Office College - Course Notes Easterly waves and Squall lines Contents 1. Easterly Waves 2. Squall Lines 2.1 2.2 2.3 3. Forecasting the occurrence of Squall lines Comparing African Easterly Waves and Squall Lines Satellite imagery sequence Further Reading Crown Copyright. Permission to quote from this document must be obtained from The Principal, Met Office College, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB Page 1 of 12 Last saved date: 9 March 2016 FILE: MS-TRAIN-COLLEGE-WORK-D:\106757751.DOC Met Office College 1. Easterly Waves Easterly waves are large synoptic scale waves, which appear during the period of northern summer on the equatorial side of the ITCZ. The influence of Easterly waves is a cause of variation in the structure of the ITCZ, and in the associated surface weather. Easterly waves passing in the vicinity of the ITCZ may be identified on satellite images as cloud masses separated by cloudless zones. As they interact with the ITCZ precipitation belt, they bring about fluctuations in intensity of the monsoon. They are a three dimensional phenomenon. Over East Africa they are considered a continuation of waves of the same type which, having crossed the south of the Arabian Sea, spread towards the west through Central and West Africa. Their weak intensity over East Africa prevents their detection on synoptic charts. On the other hand, over Central Africa they can intensify to give the impression that they have their origin there. They gain their barotropic energy through horizontal wind shear and baroclinic energy through the vertical shear of the flow over the region. Easterly waves reach their maximum intensity over West Africa. They appear most clearly on 700hPa synoptic charts, where they are very active as waves in the field of the flow lines. Easterly waves have an average wave length (L) of 2500 km average period (T) of 3 – 4 days average speed of 7 – 9ms-1, (15 – 20 kt). Easterly Waves owe their origin to the presence of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) during the period of northern summer in the low troposphere over the regions of West and Central Africa. The vertical structure of the average zonal component of the wind in these regions and at this time of the year shows: West winds associated with the monsoon in the low layers, the depth of westerlies increases towards the south. Above this relatively cold and humid air, Easterly winds are observed. These are associated with hot dry air from the Sahara. In accordance with the thermal wind equation, the easterly winds increasing with altitude reach their maximum speed around 600 hPa before decreasing again following the intrusion of cold dry air from the Sahara in the 600 – 300 hPa level. The mean position of the jet is around 15N. The structure of Easterly waves is such that they are cold at the centre between the surface and the level of the jet, and hot at the centre above the level of the jet. They incline from the SW towards the NE to the south of the centre of the jet. This indicates a transport of momentum from the west towards the jet that tends to weaken the jet by reducing the zonal kinetic energy. The kinetic energy lost in this way is recuperated by easterly waves through a process of barotropic Page 2 of 12 Last Saved Date: 9 March 2016 File: ms-train-college-work-d:\106757751.doc Easterly Waves And Squall Lines conversion. The easterly waves incline towards the east at altitude in the layer of vertical shear of zonal flow situated between the surface and the level of the jet. This indicates a transport of sensible heat towards the equator. As the average temperature increases towards the north (dT/dZ0), this transport of heat against the pressure gradient leads to the reduction of available zonal potential energy which leads to an increase in the potential energy of the easterly waves. This takes place through the process of baroclinic conversion. The region of maximum vertical speed is found in the front of the axis of the wave at 700 hPa, where the wave is most active. Figure 1. Easterly wave model A study by Andreas Fink and Andreas Reiner of African Easterly Waves and Squall Lines between May and October of 1998 and 1999 confirmed the existence of two AEW tracks at either side of the AEJ with a mean latitudinal position of 17.1N for the northerly and 8.6N for the southerly vortex (see fig 2). In only 15% of the 81 cases was a single vortex at either the northern or southern flank of the AEJ discernible. Page 3 of 12 Last Saved Date: 9 March 2016 File: ms-train-college-work-d:\106757751.doc Met Office College Figure 2. AEW tracks for the 12 months from May –Oct 1998 and 1999. The digits in the top (bottom) left-hand corners denote the numbers of northerly (southerly) AEWs for the respective months. The northerly (southerly) tracks are dashed (solid). A total of 81 AEWs were identified within the two sixmonth period. 2. Squall Lines African squall lines play a crucial role in the agricultural activities of the populations of the Sudan/Sahel zone. They are responsible alone for close to 80% of the precipitation falls on that zone. The rest comes from the monsoon rains. Squall lines move from east to west across West Africa. They are the leading portion of propagating disturbances which consist of a chain of Page 4 of 12 Last Saved Date: 9 March 2016 File: ms-train-college-work-d:\106757751.doc Easterly Waves And Squall Lines convective storms aligned in a north – south direction, and the cloud shield (anvil cloud) that trails behind. Each squall line is a few kilometres wide but up to several hundreds of kilometres long. Its life span is greater than that of an isolated storm (typically no more than a few hours). The organised squall line can live for up to a few days. Observational evidence suggests that they move about 16ms-1, on average, which is faster than the winds at all levels, and can cover several hundreds of kilometres. In contrast mid-latitude squall lines travel at the approximate mean wind speed. Air from the boundary layer enters at the front of the squall line rises in the updraught and leaves at high levels at the rear (see fig 3). Figure 3. Schematic cross sectional structure through squall line system (from Houze, Mon Wea Rev, 1977). Dark shading shows strong radar echo in the melting band and in the heavy precipitation zone of the mature squall-line element. Light shading shows weaker radar echoes. Scalloped line indicates visible cloud boundaries. The noteworthy characteristics of these systems are: Typical rain rates in convective region in excess of 30 mm per hour for a period of about 30 minutes, with peak values ranging from 60 to 110mm per hour. Intense rains turn to continuous light rain in the stratiform part with a characteristic intensity of 4mm per hour and duration of 2 to 3 hours. Around half of the rainfall is associated with the passage of the leading edge and the remainder due to stratiform precipitation. Page 5 of 12 Last Saved Date: 9 March 2016 File: ms-train-college-work-d:\106757751.doc Met Office College Evaporating air cools the dry air aloft generating both mesoscale and convective scale downdraughts. Descending air produces a “gust front” at the leading edge of the squall line which acts as a density current, lifting warm moist air ahead and encouraging development of new convective cells and accelerating the propagation of the squall line. Their association with the easterly waves. Fink and Reiner’s study of AEWs and SLs between May and October of 1998 and 1999 found that 42% of SLs were AEW-forced. Their analysis shows that 75% of these SLs were initiated west of the 700 hPa trough and the rest behind the trough in the region of maximum southerlies. They also confirmed the result that squall lines move faster (15 ms-1) than the easterly waves (9 ms-1). Their initiation seems more important during the afternoon, thus showing the importance of the diurnal cycle in convection. However Fink and Reiner found that if SLs emerged at night time and during the early hours then they mostly belonged to the sample of AEWforced SLs. They also demonstrated that the role of AEWs in forcing SLs increases substantially west of the Greenwich Meridian and peaks near the coast. This goes in line with the westward amplitude growth of the wave. They also found that at 10W, the north-westerly flow west of the trough is directed towards the Fjouta Djalon Mountains and, thus, orography might be an additional factor in triggering SLs west of the wave at this location. Their study also confirmed that AEWs significantly influence SL generation at the height of the Sahelian rainy season, especially in August and September, but primarily west of the Greenwich Meridian, where they are well developed. Favoured locations for development: Rowell and Milford’s study of SLs during August 1985 identified regions of higher total-generation density, suggesting the influence of topographic and other features. These included: Just west of the Air Mountains (16 to 19N, 7 to 9E) Just west of the Adrar des Iforas Mountains (20N, 2E) Northernmost part of the river Niger. Generation possibly aided by river and surrounding areas acting as a moisture source at a latitude where surface evaporation is generally lacking. Over the Jos Plateau area (9 to 12N, 7 to 10E) Page 6 of 12 Last Saved Date: 9 March 2016 File: ms-train-college-work-d:\106757751.doc Easterly Waves And Squall Lines 2.1 Forecasting the occurrence of Squall lines Squall lines have similarities in structure and appearance with systems in the same family observed in other parts of the world. Therefore the following derived parameters guide the forecaster in predicting the occurrence of squall lines. The essential physical processes in the environment for these formations are: Instability in the lower layers of the atmosphere. This is always present in the tropical African atmosphere. This process leads to a vertical speed in the storm that one can express in terms of the excess of temperature of a representative parcel of air over that of the environment. The presence of a mechanism to lift the parcel of air and to release the convective instability. The supply of humidity in the low layers. The vertical wind shear must be sufficient. 2.2 Comparing African Easterly Waves and Squall Lines African Easterly Waves Squall line systems Wavelength of 1700km, period of 3 to 4 days Can be initiated by AEW (convergence) as well as other lifting mechanisms Life span of 1-2 weeks System can last hours to days (individual cells have lifetime of around an hour) System speed of around 9 ms-1 System speed of around 16 ms-1 i.e. faster than wind speed at any level Significant weather can extend for 100s of kms behind trough axis (some AEWs give rise to little cloud and rain) 100s of kms long, up to 100 kms wide Precipitation lasting 1 to 2 days at one location Precipitation lasting 1 to 2 hours at one location Page 7 of 12 Last Saved Date: 9 March 2016 File: ms-train-college-work-d:\106757751.doc Met Office College 2.3 Satellite imagery sequence Figure 1: Sequence of three-hourly Meteosat pictures showing the movement and evolution of a squall cluster (S). The period shown is from 1800 29th June to 0300 on 1st July 1979. The cross marks in the pictures are at 10º N with a separation of 10º of longitude, the middle cross indicating the Greenwich meridian. The top of the first picture is about 16º N. Some cloud clusters (C) are also indicated in the top picture. Picture 1: The cluster originated sometime in the 15.00-18.00 period near 15º N, 5ºE over the plateau of Agadez, Niger, a favoured area for the generation during the hottest hours. Also the squall line developed where the moist layer was moderately deep (about 1500 m) with dry easterlies above. This favoured the generation of strong precipitation downdraughts. The front edge of the squall clusters was a (typical) convex arc – a point of reference to measure its speed. Observed association of maximum rainfall amounts is with the leading edge of the cluster. Pictures 2 & 3: The clusters grew and merged with the squall cluster in the following six hours. The line structure of the squall line is not clearly defined because of the cirrus shield formed by CB anvils. Picture 12 (last): indicates that the line moved westwards with a mean speed of about 20 ms-1, travelling a distance of about 2400 km (4º E to 18º W) during the 33-hour period. Somewhat faster than the 16 ms-1 average quoted. Pictures 3–7: 0001 to 1500 30th June, a diurnal variation – more disorganised and moving more slowly. Pictures 8–11: 1500 to 2400 30th June it moved very fast, mean speed 28 ms-1. Some of the pictures show new convective elements developing well ahead of the downdraughts. These merge with the squall line as it approaches. It is not known whether the squall cluster triggered the cumulonimbi well in advance of its leading edge, or whether it simply overtook deep convection formed by some other mechanism. Figure 2: A sounding taken at Niamey, Niger (13.5º N, 02.2º E), a few hours before the development of the squall cluster. Figure 3: shows the surface changes observed at Niamey during the passage of the squall cluster. This figure was constructed with hourly data. The squall line arrived at about 00Z on 29th June. The third panel down in Fig 1 shows the satellite picture at this time; Niamey is located Page 8 of 12 Last Saved Date: 9 March 2016 File: ms-train-college-work-d:\106757751.doc Easterly Waves And Squall Lines near the S. With the arrival of the squall line and its associated rainfall, a sharp decrease in temperature, an increase in relative humidity, a gust in the wind speed, an abrupt change in wind direction and an increase in pressure were observed. After the squall line had passed the station, surface temperature and relative humidity stayed relatively constant for many hours. Similar surface changes were recorded at Bamako (12.5N, 8W), Mali, and also have been observed during the passage of other West African squall lines. Page 9 of 12 Last Saved Date: 9 March 2016 File: ms-train-college-work-d:\106757751.doc Met Office College Figure 1. Sequence of 3 hourly Meteosat images showing movement and evolution of a squall cluster (S) Page 10 of 12 Last Saved Date: 9 March 2016 File: ms-train-college-work-d:\106757751.doc Easterly Waves And Squall Lines Page 11 of 12 Last Saved Date: 9 March 2016 File: ms-train-college-work-d:\106757751.doc Met Office College 3. Further Reading Thorncroft, C D and Blackburn, M, 1999: Maintenance of the African easterly jet. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125, 763-786. Fink, A H and Reiner, A, 2003: Spatiotemporal variability of the relation between African Easterly Waves and West African Squall Lines in 1998 and 1999. J.Geophys. Res. 108, 5-1 – 5-17. Houze, R A Jr., 1977: Structure and Dynamics of a Tropical Squall-Line System. Mon. Wea. Rev. 105, 1540-1567. Rowell, D P and Milford, J R, 199:. On the Generation of African Squall Lines. J. Clim. 6, 1181-1193. 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