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Rice Export DA
RICE 1NC ................................................................................................................................................................ 2
***UNIQUENESS ................................................................................................................................................... 3
ECON UNIQUENESS ............................................................................................................................................. 4
RICE UNIQUENESS ............................................................................................................................................... 5
***LINKS ................................................................................................................................................................ 5
EMBARGO LINK .................................................................................................................................................... 6
RELATIONS LINK ...................................................................................................................................................7
CUBA KEY .............................................................................................................................................................. 8
RICE KEY CUBA-NAM ........................................................................................................................................... 9
RICE KEY VIETNAM ECON .................................................................................................................................10
VIETNAM KEY ASEAN ......................................................................................................................................... 11
POVERTY INTERNAL ........................................................................................................................................... 12
***ASEAN IMPACTS ............................................................................................................................................. 12
BIG NUKE WAR IMPACT ..................................................................................................................................... 13
KOREA IMPACT .................................................................................................................................................... 15
ECON IMPACT ...................................................................................................................................................... 16
ASIAN SECURITY IMPACT .................................................................................................................................. 17
U.S. INFLUENCE IMPACT ...................................................................................................................................18
***INDIA IMPACT ................................................................................................................................................18
2NC VIETNAM-INDIA IMPACT ........................................................................................................................... 19
***A2: 2AC ANS .................................................................................................................................................... 20
A2: VIETNAM ECON DOESN’T MATTER............................................................................................................ 21
A2 EXPORTS NOW .............................................................................................................................................. 22
A2: STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS ........................................................................................................................... 23
A2: U.S. RICE EXPORTS GOOD .......................................................................................................................... 24
***AFF ANSWERS ................................................................................................................................................ 25
AFF—U.S. RICE ADD-ON .................................................................................................................................... 26
AFF—RICE NOT UNIQUE ................................................................................................................................... 28
AFF—RICE NOT KEY ........................................................................................................................................... 29
AFF—CUBA NOT KEY .......................................................................................................................................... 30
AFF—STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS ........................................................................................................................ 31
AFF—ECON COLLAPSE INEV ............................................................................................................................. 32
AFF—ASEAN BAD ................................................................................................................................................ 33
AFF—ASEAN DEFENSE ...................................................................................................................................... 34
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RICE 1NC
The plan would immediately result in U.S. domination of Cuba’s rice market—no exports now
USA RICE 2011 (“Cuba could become largest U.S. rice market overnight?” Western Farm Press, October 28, http://westernfarmpress.com/government/cuba-
could-become-largest-us-rice-market-overnight)
USA Rice Federation President and CEO Betsy Ward addressed an audience of Cuban officials and business interests during a panel discussion hosted by the Cuban Interests
Section today. The event was broadcast via video conference to Cuban government officials in Havana.
Ward underscored how opening agricultural trade between the U.S. and Cuba would benefit both countries. "Under
normal commercial relations we
believe that Cuba could become, overnight, the largest market for U.S. grown rice in the world," Ward said. "The lifting of
sanctions will generate jobs in rural America and it would enable Cuba to buy high quality rice from a nearby supplier, reducing shipping time, storage and transportation
costs."
Prior to the 1962 embargo, Cuba was the top export destination for U.S.-grown rice. In 2000, Congress passed
legislation that permitted U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba and rice sales to the island nation totaled 635,000 MT between 2002 and 2006.
However, this legislation codified restrictions on other commercial activities and maintained existing U.S. restrictions on imports from Cuba. A rule tightening
in 2005 crippled U.S. exports to Cuba and there have been no U.S. rice sales since 2008. Cubans consume nearly 1 million metric tons
of rice annually, which is among the highest consumption rates in the Americas. Sixty percent of the rice consumed in Cuba is imported from other countries.
Cuba is a key rice market for Vietnam but it couldn’t compete with the US
NIELSEN 2003 (Chantal Pohl Nielsen, Danish Research Institute of Food Economics, Vietnam’s Rice Policy,
www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/1080.pdf)
The explanation behind the observation that the
United States, Pakistan and Thailand seem able to capture large shares of the value of
world rice trade is a reflection of several issues. These countries have a much longer experience in international rice trade
than e.g. Vietnam, and have therefore established a reputation of stable and good quality supplies. Recurring issues in the
description of the challenges facing Vietnamese rice exports are precisely unreliable supplies and (a reputation of) low quality.2 Clearly these are issues of which Vietnamese
officials are well aware and efforts are being made to improve the quality of rice destined for exports. Given that around 20%
of Vietnamese rice
production is now sold in foreign markets (Nielsen 2002) and that rice exports in recent years have been the second or
third largest generator of foreign exchange to the country, increasing the value of rice exports must definitely be a clear
priority.
Vietnam’s major export markets within the region are Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines (Table 1). Sales to Iraq, Iran and Cuba are also important to
Vietnamese rice exports. Iraq is a demander of high-quality long grain rice and Vietnam is the main supplier to this country. Cuba is a demander of
low-quality long grain rice, and here Vietnam and China are the main suppliers. Former political ties to Eastern Europe are also
evident in the structure of Vietnamese exports. Sales to the EU account for only a very small share of total Vietnamese rice exports.
Rice is key to Vietnamese economy
YOUNG et al 2002 (Kenneth B. Young, Eric J.Wailes, Gail L. Cramer, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas; Nguyen
Tri Khiem, Can Tho University; “Vietnam’s Rice Economy: Developments and Prospects,” April, arkansasagnews.uark.edu/968.pdf)
Vietnam’s food crop sector, comprising more than 85% rice, is the most important sector of the economy. The food
sector contributed about 70% of the total agricultural GDP from 1989-95 (Khiem et al., 1996). More than 70% of the rural population depends on
food production for their primary source of income. On the average, the value of gross agricultural output - including animal and
fishery products - contributes 49% of GDP and 42% of current export earnings. Rice alone contributed half of all employment and
one sixth of national income in 1990 and about 25% of the total export value from 1994 to 1996.
Vietnamese economic decline causes regional instability and crushes ASEAN
MITTON 2010 (Roger, “Economic reform vital for teetering Vietnam,” Phnom Penh Post, Dec 13, factiva)
Now we have Vietnam, where the warnings of impending catastrophe grow ever louder.Last week, Stewart Newnham, an Asian currency
strategist at Morgan Stanley, told a conference in Ho Chi Minh City that due to the weak economy and deteriorating balance of payments deficit Vietnam’s dong was
in “extreme trouble”.Its previous devaluation in August occurred amid fears that increased imports might cause Vietnam to fall short of capital to fund the burgeoning trade
deficit, now running at US$10.66 billion.Newnham’s warning came two days after the International Monetary Fund cautioned that Vietnam’s reserves were at dangerously
“low” levels and covered less than two months of imports.Tomorrow, the European Chamber of Commerce in Hanoi will discuss “The Future of the Vietnam Dong” and
members will mull whether the currency will be devalued for a third time this year and how long the foreign reserves might last.Make no mistake, it is
serious. Not
only for Vietnam, but for neighbours like Cambodia and other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.If Vietnam’s economy
crashes, the waves will wash over the region and threaten ASEAN, just as the banking crises in Greece and
Ireland financially rocked the European Union.And despite the largesse of the Asian Development Bank, which will
announce tomorrow a multi-billion rescue package for Vietnam, a more radical and lasting solution is needed.Thankfully several brave voices in Vietnam
itself have already identified the essential and inter-related steps that need to be taken.The first is that the hierarchy of the ruling communist regime must be revamped.By
great good fortune that will happen next month at the party’s five-yearly congress when all senior members will face re-election.Of the VCP’s topmost troika, it is already
known that the doddery party boss Nong Duc Manh and the nice but ineffective President Nguyen Minh Triet will step down.What now seems likely, and it is real bombshell in
the context of Vietnamese politics, is that Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung will be forced out.Recently humiliated in the National Assembly where he faced a no-confidence
motion, Dung had to apologise for the way Vinashin, the state-owned shipbuilding group, ran up debts of US$4.4 billion when helmed by one of his lackeys.Dung’s probable
replacement will be Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Sinh Hung, hardly a pocket dynamo but at least someone who understands economics. He will need that understanding in
spades, because Vietnam’s other urgent need is for a second doi moi, or economic reformation.It will have to be just as revolutionary as the first doi moi in 1986, which
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partially opened the country to free-market practices.andnbsp; “A second doi moi!” is the new clarion call now heard all over Vietnam these days.Unless that call is heeded
soon, Vietnam’s
not so long ago.
leaders risk facing the same fate as their counterparts did in Romania, Poland and East Germany
Strong ASEAN key to prevent worldwide environmental collapse—impact is extinction
SWAJAYA 2012 (Ngurah Swajaya, Indonesia’s permanent representative to Asean, served as special adviser to the president of the Bali international conferences
on climate change in 2007 and the chair of the Preparatory Committee of the World Summit on Sustainable Development in 2001, “Rio+ 20: An Opportunity for Asean to
Stand Up And Play a Major Role in Shaping Earth’s Future,” Jakarta Globe, June 7, http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/archive/rio-20-an-opportunity-for-asean-to-stand-upand-play-a-major-role-in-shaping-earths-future/)
It may indeed be the last chance for the international community to push the reset button to ensure that the
more than 7 billion people in the world today can be fed, clothed and sheltered without further damaging the
environment.
That’s because 20 years after the first Earth Summit, the world’s environment continues to deteriorate at an alarming rate, while
the socioeconomic plight of some 80 percent of humankind remains bleak. Most of the world’s production is consumed by a small
percentage of the world’s population. The gap between the haves and have-nots continues to widen in the face of uncertainties and the threat
of a double-dip depression triggered by the euro-zone crisis.
Efforts to reinvigorate commitment to Rio Agenda 21 at the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg in 2002 did not bring much progress. The Bali
Climate Conference of 2007 yielded encouraging results, but subsequent global negotiations on climate change were all inconclusive.
The Living Planet Report 2012 issued by the WWF and Global Footprint Network shows a
global decline in freshwater supply by 37 percent, with tropical
yearly consumption has exceeded what the
freshwater supply diminishing by a whopping 70 percent. Since 1970, the report says, humankind’s
Earth can renew. Years ago, it was already predicted that the Mekong River in Southeast Asia would be one of 10 river systems to dry up when Himalayan glaciers are
lost due to climate change. Those are some of the grim facts that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations must face.
The third-largest economy in Asia, Asean is expected to grow at an average of 4 to 5 percent in the next two to three decades. The Asian Development Bank Institute has
predicted that, assuming a modest annual growth, by 2030 Asean’s per capita GDP will double or triple its 2010 growth. But that growth will entail massive use of fossil fuels
and equally massive greenhouse gas emissions. By 2030, the study indicates, 50 percent of Asean people will live in cities, resulting in the further deterioration of air quality
and depletion of drinking water supplies.
Given this backdrop, Asean is called upon to take bold steps to collectively contribute, as a regional community of nations, to
the solution of the global challenges of climate change and sustainable development, for the following reasons:
First, given Asean’s explosive growth in the next two decades, sustainable development is not an option, but an imperative. Second, Asean
countries like Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines are highly experienced in forging global consensus on sustainable
development. Third, the global political landscape is not what it was a decade ago, when there was a clear divide between the developed and developing world. Fourth, Asean’s
commitment to sustainable development is enshrined in various important Asean documents, including the Asean Charter. Fifth, by virtue of the Bali Concord III, Asean
has solemnly committed itself to contribute to the solution of global problems.
For several years now, Asean has been pursuing a policy of sustainable development. It strives for high and inclusive economic growth
without jeopardizing the ecology. Through various arrangements, Asean countries are cooperating among themselves and
with dialogue partners to address climate change through sustainable forestry management, the promotion of
energy security and energy efficiency, initiatives to make extractive industries more eco-friendly, protecting
biodiversity and, in general, promoting a green economy.
At the Rio+20, Asean can advocate such cooperative undertakings and also help build global political consensus toward meaningful
outcomes beyond political rhetoric. This is a role for Asean that Indonesia championed during its tenure as Asean chair last year. And Asean has the
opportunity to realize it in the upcoming Rio+20 — and thereby help save humankind from the dangerous follies of pollution.
***UNIQUENESS
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ECON UNIQUENESS
Now is key—Vietnamese economy growing but decline is possible
BLOOMBERG NEWS 6-27-2013 (Vietnam Economic Growth Quickens as Investment Aids Exports, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0627/vietnam-s-economic-growth-quickens-as-investment-boosts-exports.html)
Vietnam’s economic growth accelerated in the second quarter after the central bank cut interest rates to revive lending to businesses and
rising foreign investment boosted the nation’s exports.
Gross domestic product grew 5 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to the General Statistics Office in Hanoi. The central bank
said today it would weaken its dong-dollar reference rate and that it would lower its rate caps on U.S. dollar and dong deposits effective June 28.
Vietnam’s central bank has cut its refinancing rate eight times since the beginning of 2012 to spur lending, and the government is setting up an asset management company to
clear bad debt. The legislature last week voted to lower the corporate income tax rate to help businesses, while disbursed foreign investment rose 5.6 percent in the first half of
2013 to $5.7 billion, according to the Ministry of Planning & Investment.
“This isn’t going to be a strong growth year, but the economy is stabilizing,” said Gaurav Gupta, the Hanoi-based managing director
at General Motors Co.’s Vietnam unit, citing lower interest rates and inflation than in previous years. “ This year should set the base for the
government to take actions to drive growth faster in the future.”
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RICE UNIQUENESS
Vietnamese rice exports are meeting projections now
FOOD WORLD NEWS 6-30-2013 (Vietnam’s Rice Export on Track, May Exceed Target,
http://www.foodworldnews.com/articles/2654/20121006/vietnam-rice-export-exceed-target-thailand-india.htm)
Vietnam, one of the top exporters of rice in the world, has almost reached its rice export target for the marketing year 2011-2012. According to the
Vietnam Food Association, the country has imported 81 percent of the target.
From January to August, Vietnam
managed to export around 5.5 million tonnes of rice, despite the volatility of the rice
market. In the month of September, Vietnam exported around 719, 619 tons of rice, bringing the current amount exported to 5.82 million tons. However, the amount
exported in September is less than expected, reports The Vietnam Investment Review. Poor weather and a drop in the number of rice contracts may be responsible, the report
adds.
The Southeast Asian nation is well on its way to meet its target of 7.5 million tons this year, and in fact may exceed
last year's 7.11 million ton, reports Bloomberg Businessweek.
Despite the instability in the rice market, the demand for Vietnamese rice has been on the rise over the last few
months. Vietnamese white rice is priced lower than any other rice variety in the market due to its lower quality. However, farmers
have been switching to higher grade white rice to increase demand and get a better price. Transportation costs, on the other hand, still remain
relatively high.
Vietnamese exports up
VIET NAM NEWS 6-5-2013 (Rice exports up during first 5 months, http://vietnamnews.vn/economy/240315/rice-exports-up-during-first-5months.html)
Viet Nam's rice exports were 5 per cent up at US$1.2 billion in the first five months, according to the Viet Nam Food
Association.
Shipments were however 10 per cent up in volume terms at 2.78 million tonnes, Pham Van Bay, the VFA's deputy chairman, told the media in HCM
City yesterday.
***LINKS
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EMBARGO LINK
Current trade restrictions limit US rice exports to Cuba
ORYZA 6-4-2013 (“USA Rice Urges Government to Remove Trade Restrictions with Cuba,”
http://oryza.com/content/usa-rice-urges-government-remove-trade-
restrictions-cuba#sthash.INZt4ctW.dpuf)
USA Rice has urged the U.S. government to remove trade restrictions with Cuba to help revive rice exports and
improve the economy and jobs in the U.S.
The U.S. exported around 176,000 tons of rice to Cuba in 2004, which was about 27% of total rice imports of around 639,000 tons by Cuba that year. However, U.S.
rice
exports to Cuba plunged to less than 13,000 tons in 2008, and almost no exports since 2009. USA Rice says that the U.S. Treasury
Department's reinterpretation in 2005 of the Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act (TSREEA),
which requires payment through third-country banks in advance of shipment, has been a factor in the decline of U.S. rice exports to Cuba.
USA Rice says that despite several steps by the Cuban government to boost food production, rice import demand
remains strong in the country. However, the government must take steps to liberalize rice trade with Cuba for
the revival of U.S. rice exports to Cuba, it says. “USA Rice strongly supports the removal of statutory and regulatory
restrictions on direct trade with Cuba, the clarification of Congress's intent to legalize agricultural sales to
Cuba, and the liberalization of travel licensing and payment rules concerning U.S. agricultural sales to Cuba,”
USA Rice said today.
Trade restrictions prevent the US from dominating Cuba’s rice market
PARK 2010 (Beth, Manager, International Policy for USA Rice Federation, “The National Export Initiative and the U.S. rice industry,”
http://www.ricefarming.com/home/issues/2010-05/2010_MayUSARiceFed.html)
U.S. rice farmers produce less than two percent of the world’s annual rice supply, but the United States is the world’s fourth largest rice exporter. The
U.S. rice
industry exports close to half of its crop annually. In 2009, the United States exported an estimated 93.6 million hundredweight (2.99 million
metric tons) of rice to foreign markets, contributing more than $2 billion to the U.S. economy and providing thousands of American jobs.
The NEI goals are possible to achieve if progress is made in markets where specific constraints prevent a level
playing field for U.S. rice. These include historically large markets for U.S. rice, current markets and new markets with great potential.
Normalizing commercial trade with Cuba, for example, would recapture that market for U.S. rice. Prior to the
current embargo, Cuba was a 400,000 to 600,000 metric ton (MT) market for long-grain rice producers. Trade
resumed in 2002, after Congress passed the Trade Sanctions Reform and Export En-hancement Act of 2000 (TSREEA). But, in 2005, the U.S. Treasury Department’s reinterpretation of payment provisions of the TSREEA required payment through third-party banks in advance of shipment. This change,
plus liquidity constraints in Cuba, led to a decline in U.S. rice exports to Cuba from 177,000 MT in 2004 to less than 13,000 MT in 2008. There
was no trade in 2009 and none so far in 2010.
Other countries dominate Cuba’s rice market—lifting the embargo changes that
GUINN 2011 (Jim Guinn is the Vice President, International Promotion, with the USA Rice Federation, “U.S. Rice Export Update,” One Grower Publishing,
http://www.ricefarming.com/home/issues/2011-04/2011_AprExportUpdate.html)
There is no market that has more potential for U.S.-grown rice than Cuba, which has imported no U.S. rice
since the spring of 2008. Each year, Cuba imports 500,000 and 700,000 MT of rice, but the market remains closed to U.S. rice
because of outdated and counterproductive U.S. policy toward the island nation. USA Rice continues to maintain relations with the Cuban Interests Section (the
equivalent of an Embassy, but the United States has no diplomatic relations with Cuba) and Alimport, the agency responsible for agricultural imports in Cuba. USA Rice also
supports legislative efforts to liberalize the U.S. trade and travel policies with Cuba.
Looking ahead, USA Rice expects continued incremental increases in imports of U.S. rice into Mexico. Additionally, in the short term, if the U.S.-Colombia Free Trade
Agreement is approved by Congress, then the U.S. industry will gain access for 79,000 MT of that rice market.
Competitive Pressures
Rice remains one of the most sensitive agricultural commodities in world trade, facing subsidized production,
highly protected markets and stiff competition.
Despite positive export growth, U.S. rice faces tough competition from nearby rice exporting markets in Latin America,
such as Argentina and Uruguay. It has been reported that Haiti has recently purchased a shipment of rice from Uruguay. Typically, more than 90 percent of Haiti’s rice
imports come from the United States.
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RELATIONS LINK
Cuban rice imports from the US are dropping now because relations are tense
ROBINSON 2013 (Elton, “U.S. rice trade with Cuba entangled with jailed American,” Farm Press Blog, Feb 8, http://deltafarmpress.com/blog/us-rice-tradecuba-entangled-jailed-american)
Exporting U.S. rice to Cuba just can’t seem to get going. After importing U.S. rice in record numbers a few
years back, Cuba’s imports of U.S. rice have now slowed to a trickle. Relations between the two countries have
chilled considerably.
Unfortunately, this is not likely to change until something is done about an American named Alan Gross, who has been sitting in a Cuban jail for three years.
In November 2009, Gross was an American international development expert working as a subcontractor for the U.S. Agency for International Development.
Gross was hired to implement a risky plan in Cuba, setting up broadband technology for small numbers of Jewish citizens in Havana. The technology provided the Cubans with
unfiltered access to the Internet.
Cuba’s security forces considered this a serious crime and on Dec. 3, 2009 arrested Gross at Havana’s Jose Marti Airport as he was attempting to leave Cuba. He was
ultimately convicted for “acts against the independence or the territorial integrity of the state.”
The 63-year old is now beginning the fourth year of a 15-year prison sentence, and apparently, Cuba has no intention of letting him go. In fact, they’ve recently used Gross as a
bargaining chip for five Cuban spies convicted in Miami of various crimes including conspiring to shoot down two civilian airplanes in 1996, which killed four south Florida
men.
In rejecting the offer, U.S. officials noted that there is “no parallel” between Gross and the jailed Cubans. I agree. In most countries, giving people access to information is not
only a right, but perfectly legal, and murder is a crime.
The Obama Administration has stated that further talks on improving Cuba and U.S. relations, including trade
matters, will not resume until Gross is returned.
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CUBA KEY
Vietnam is the key supplier to Cuba now—it’s a large market
MERCO PRESS 7-20-2011 (“Cuba imports 60% of rice consumption, the basic diet; main supplier Vietnam,” http://en.mercopress.com/2011/07/20/cubaimports-60-of-rice-consumption-the-basic-diet-main-supplier-vietnam)
Cuba in 2011 will have to import almost double the rice it produces for consumption on the island , calculated at more
than 600,000 tons.
Vietnam is Cuba’s main rice provider, according to government sources.
Cuba’s 11.2 million citizens each consume an average of 5 kilograms of uncooked rice monthly, or 60 kilograms per year.
Cuban citizens receive monthly allocations of rice on their government-issued ration cards which they can purchase at subsidized prices.
Juventud Rebelde emphasized that half the local demand for rice is met by purchases in foreign markets , and thus several of the
country’s institutions have been mobilized to “consolidate” a program to increase its cultivation using some 50 varieties of the grain that can be grown in the island’s different
ecosystems for maximum output.
In addition, the daily noted that Cuba for years has depended on the international market to meet its rice needs , particularly after
the implosion of socialism in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, when the island lost its major export and import markets for capital goods, consumables and
services, a situation that resulted in the “significant and rapid” reduction in state production of rice and other items.
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RICE KEY CUBA-NAM
Rice is the key link between Vietnam and Cuba
VIET NAM NEWS 2011 (“Rice programme a significant part of relations with Cuba,” Oct 8, http://vietnamnews.vn/Politics-Laws/216320/Rice-programmea-significant-part-of-relations-with-Cuba-.html)
Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung has reiterated Viet Nam's commitment to prioritising the rice production cooperation programme between Viet Nam and Cuba.
"The co-operation programme is of great significance for the bilateral friendship," he said.
Dung made the statement yesterday while receiving Cuban Minister of Foreign Trade and Investment Rodrigo Malmiecra Diaz.
He asked Cuba to continue creating favourable conditions for Vietnamese enterprises to invest in the Caribbean nation and to encourage more Cuban investment in Viet Nam.
Two-way trade value, which reached US$250 million last year, was expected to increase further.
The Cuban minister is also the head of the Cuban delegation to the 29th meeting of the Viet Nam-Cuba inter-governmental committee which was held in the capital yesterday.
Minister of Construction Tran Dinh Dung, co-chairman of the committee, said the key objective of this meeting was to discuss and agree on what areas the two parties should
focus on in their co-operation, and what measures should be taken to make the co-operation more fruitful, particularly the rice production co-operation programme.
Regarding trade relations, Minister Dung asked the two parties to come up with solutions to settle outstanding debt and to promote bilateral trade relations.
He asked the Cuban Government to speed up the permit process for the Vietcombank to open a branch in Cuba.
"The presence of the bank will help facilitate the financial settlement between Vietnamese and Cuban companies and enable Vietnamese investors to invest in Cuba,
particularly in the fields of construction, oil and gas, and trade," he said.
Cuban Minister Diaz said he wanted the two sides to come up with a strategy for development co-operation, economic relations and trade promotion in the time to come.
He said the driving force for bilateral co-operation between the two countries in the mid term was economic development.
Diaz wished that Viet Nam would continue to sell more rice to Cuba in the years to come. He also committed to gradually reducing the credit debts to Vinafood – the key
Vietnamese rice exporter to Cuba.
On behalf of the Cuban Government, Minister Diaz pledged to honour its financial commitments with Viet Nam.
Agricultural projects supported by Viet Nam had played a very important role in Cuba, he said. Meanwhile, Cuba wanted to
share Viet Nam's success in biology and pharmaceuticals and to introduce new Cuban medicines to the Vietnamese market.
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RICE KEY VIETNAM ECON
Rice exports are key to Vietnamese growth and poverty reduction
VIETRADE 2011 (Vietnam Trade Promotion Agency, “Rice,”
http://www.vietrade.gov.vn/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=952&Itemid=239)
Rice plays the most important role among agricultural commodities in Vietnam in terms of food security, rural
wages and employment, and export revenues. Rice is planted on half of all agricultural land and involves nearly 80% of the farm population.
Vietnam is easily one of the largest exporters of rice in the world. In 2009, Vietnam's rice exports reached a 20-year record high with the
total rice export volume reaching 6 million tons, up 28% from 2008 and exceeded the set target by 1 million tons. In the first 6 months, the country exported 3.4 million
tonnes, earning export revenue of US$1.7 billion.
Vietnam is second only to Thailand as the world's largest rice exporter. Major
Malaysia, Iraq, Cuba and Africa.
importers of Vietnamese rice include the Philippines, Indonesia,
Rice is key to the Vietnamese economy
NIIMI et al 2004 (Yoko Niimi, Puja Vasudeva-Dutta and L. Alan Winters, Dept of Economics, U of Sussex, “Storm in a Rice Bowl,” Journal of the Asia Pacific
Economy 9(2))
The significance of rice in the Vietnamese economy cannot be overstated. Rice is the most important food crop ,
so much so that all other food crops are measured in ‘paddy equivalents’ (FAO 1994). Rice occupies about 86 per cent of the food crop area
and accounts for about 89 per cent of total food output. Rice production is concentrated primarily in the lowland areas – the Mekong River
Delta (the ‘rice bowl’ of Vietnam), the Red River Delta and the Central Coast. The remainder of the crop – upland rice – is cultivated in the mountainous provinces. Rice
exports accounted for about 7.5 per cent of rice production in 1993 and for about 11 per cent of total exports throughout the 1990s (see Table 1) .
At the household level, the data from the VLSS reveal that rice
was the single most important crop for the majority of farm
households who, in turn, constitute over 60 per cent of all households in 1997–98. Rice accounted for about 64 per cent of total output,
67 per cent of land acreage and 46 per cent of total sales for agricultural households in 1992–93 (see Table 2). Although these shares declined in 1997–98, rice still
remains critical to the livelihood of many households in Vietnam (Benjamin and Brandt 2002).
On the consumption side, rice is again central, satisfying about 75 per cent of the total calorific intake of the typical Vietnamese household (Minot and Goletti 2000).
According to our calculations, rice accounted for about 44 per cent and 38 per cent of household food expenditure in 1992–93 and 1997–98, respectively, and about 53 per
cent and 51 per cent for poor households. Rice
is thus a hugely important part of the Vietnamese diet and changes in rice
production and prices as a result of liberalization are likely to have had a significant impact on the welfare of Vietnamese
households and on poverty levels.
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VIETNAM KEY ASEAN
Vietnamese economic growth is critical to all aspects of ASEAN policy
XINHUA 2004 (Roundup: Vietnam plays bigger role in ASEAN Xinhua General News Service November 29, 2004)
Vietnam, one of the four less- developed countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), has made greater contributions to and
benefited from the regional grouping for economic, social and cultural cooperation, resulting in its bigger role in the block.
After Vietnam joined ASEAN in July 1995, becoming the block's first new member in the post-Cold War period, the association has
experienced changes in both quantity and quality. Its joining ignited the accession of Myanmar, Laos and
Cambodia, turning the idea about an entity comprising all 10 nations of Southeast Asia, by Southeast Asia and for Southeast
Asia into reality.
The joining of Vietnam in particular and the three countries in general changed the block's nature and development orientation.
Southeast Asia, which had suffered complex and hostile regional situations, became a region of friendship and cooperation. From an
organization in the region, ASEAN advanced into the region's organization.
After the admission of Cambodia in ASEAN in April 1999 in Vietnam's Hanoi capital, relationships among the block members turned to a new page -- jointly cooperating and
uniting for peace, stability and prosperity of each country as well as of the whole region. The
contributions of all members in general and Vietnam in
particular have turned the association into an essential factor for peace, stability and development cooperation
in the region and the world with a higher status and stronger voice in the international arena.
Vietnam's role in ASEAN has gone well so far, though it was cautious in pursuing the role in its first years of membership. The country successfully hosted the 6th ASEAN
Summit in Hanoi in December 1998, and then fulfilled its duties as president of the ASEAN Standing Committee (ASC) and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) the Executive
Committee of the commission for the Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) in the 2000-2001 periods.
In other words, Vietnam participated in managing ASEAN and issuing policies for its development after five years of actively partaking in its activities. In the context of the
Asian financial crisis in late 1990s, the 6th ASEAN Summit with the adoption of the Hanoi Declaration and the Hanoi Plan of Action (HPA) was of great significance.
The six-year HPA is the first in a series of plans of actions building up to the realization of the goals of the ASEAN Vision 2020: an ASEAN as a concert of Southeast Asian
Nations, outward looking, living in peace, stability and prosperity, bonded together in partnership in dynamic development and in a community of caring societies. It created a
fresh impetus to ASEAN cooperation for overcoming the crisis, helping recover the international community's confidence in the block's role and future development.
It is Vietnam's political and social stability and economic growth that have helped boost the region's overall
development, and acted as a condition for ASEAN to implement regional programs. The country has put forth many initiatives
on sub-regional development, solutions to urgent social problems, and tourism and culture cooperation, such as the development of the Greater Mekong Sub-region and the
West-East Corridor, drug issues among youths, East Asia tourism cooperation, and the organization of ASEAN culture weeks.
Vietnam has also contributed to the peace and stability in the region, helping turn the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) in
Southeast Asia, whose major principles include mutual respect for the independence, sovereignty, equality, territorial integrity and national identity of all nations, and
settlement of differences or disputes by peaceful manner, into a code of conduct not only for relationships among ASEAN members but also non-block members. The country
speeded up the construction of a regional Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC) between ASEAN and China.
Through its active participation in and contribution to ASEAN, Vietnam has gained stronger international acceptance, and wider access to added investment both from the
region and the world. The nation's joining in ASEAN has helped the country conduct its external policies effectively, enhanced its bilateral ties with regional countries, offered
it opportunities to strengthen bilateral relations with ASEAN partners as well as other non-block members such as the European Union (EU), Canada and Australia.
Specifically, Vietnam's
involvement in ASEAN's economic cooperation programs and partnerships such as the ASEAN Free
Trade Area (AFTA), the ASEAN Investment Area (AIA) and the ASEAN Industrial Cooperation (AICO) Scheme has supplemented the bilateral economic, trade and
investment between the country and other ASEAN members, as well as paid the way for its participation in other cooperation
mechanisms and organizations like the World Trade Organization (WTO). Besides experience on international economic integration, Vietnam has gained
wider access to advanced technologies via cooperation programs with countries inside and outside the region.
Notably, trade between Vietnam and ASEAN countries sees average annual growth of 26.8 percent, and accounts for one-third of the country's total imports and exports. The
two-way trade stood at 5. 2 billion US dollars in 1996, up 525.9 percent against 1990. By early 2004, total investment of ASEAN in Vietnam was 9.5 billion dollars,
representing 20 percent of combined foreign investment in the country.
Cooperation between Vietnam and ASEAN in all fields, especially economy, trade and investment is expected
to bear more fruits in the coming time. Vietnam with a current population of 82 million has seen rapid economic development in recent years, recording a 7. 24percent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) which stood at 38.8 billion dollars last year.
Vietnamese growth is key to ASEAN
THAI NEWS SERVICE 2009 (Vietnam: ASEAN expects Vietnam to play a leading role in 2010 Thai News Service December 23, 2009, lexis)
ASEAN expects Vietnam to play a leading role in 2010, emphasised ASEAN General Secretary Surin Pitsuwan in an exclusive interview granted to
VOV reporter on December 22.
Mr Pitsuwan expressed his belief that with
its political stability, and strong and dynamic economic growth, Vietnam will make a great
contribution to the development of ASEAN in general and enable the grouping to reach its targets.
Regarding Vietnam's holding the ASEAN presidency in 2010, Mr Pitsuwan said he hopes it will put forward initiatives and play a leading role in making ASEAN better known
around the world. Currently,
Vietnam is a prestigious nation and an attractive destination for foreign investors and
ASEAN will enjoy many benefits from Vietnam when it takes over the ASEAN chair, he said.
Mr Pitsuwan added that Vietnam will help narrow the development gap between member nations so that ASEAN can
become a common community for the whole region.
Rice Disad
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POVERTY INTERNAL
Increase in poverty undermines stability and growth
TOFANI 2012 (Roberto Tofani is a freelance journalist and analyst covering Southeast Asia, “Inflation tests stability in Vietnam,” Asia Times Online, Jan 26,
http://atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/NA26Ae01.html)
Either way, as prices rise faster than wages, Vietnam's workers are increasingly squeezed in the middle. Over the past four
years commentators and policymakers in both developed and developing countries have blamed mostly international market forces for their economic woes. In the case of
Vietnam, however, the feeling among many workers surveyed was that the root of their problems is more internal than external.
While many Vietnamese recognize the country's great untapped potential, frustration
is mounting over perceptions that only a small
group of people, usually associated with the ruling Communist Party, are enjoying and exploiting that potential. Combined with fast rising
prices, the social stability that until now has underpinned Vietnam's growth, reform and attractiveness as an
investment destination can no longer be taken for granted.
***ASEAN IMPACTS
Rice Disad
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BIG NUKE WAR IMPACT
Strong ASEAN key to prevent extinction through nuclear war
RAJARATNAM 1992 (Sinnathamby, former Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore, “ASEAN The Way Ahead,” Sep 1, http://www.asean.org/asean/aboutasean/history/item/asean-the-way-ahead-by-s-rajaratnam)
Should regionalism collapse, then ASEAN too will go the way of earlier regional attempts like SEATO, ASA and MAPHlLlNDO. All that remains today of these earlier
experiments are their bleached bones. Should
the new regional efforts collapse, then globalism, the final stage of historical development, will also fall
will inevitably enter another Dark Ages and World War III, fought this time not with gun-powder, but with
nuclear weapons far more devastating than those exploded in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
apart. Then we
Modern technology and science are pushing the world simultaneously in the direction of regionalism and globalism. What is responsible for today's economic disintegration,
disorder and violence is the resistance offered by nationalism to the irresistible counter-pressures of regionalism and globalism.
As of today, there are only two functioning and highly respected regional organizations in the world. They are, in order of their importance and seniority, the European
Community (EC) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The first came into being in 1957 and the second in 1967. A mere ten years separates the two. The
population of the European Community as at 1990 was 350 million, and that of ASEAN an estimated 323 million. In terms of population, they are not all that unequal. In
terms of political and economic dynamism, though, the gap is qualitatively wider. The economic dynamism and the proven political cohesion of ASEAN is nevertheless slowly
but steadily narrowing the gap between the European Community and ASEAN. To compare ASEAN with the so-called Little Dragons of Asia is to compare unrelated political
species. The Little Dragons are lone wolves hunting separately. They lack collective strength or awareness. With them it is a case of each wolf for itself. In the case of ASEAN,
as integration proceeds, its strength will be the cohesiveness of over 300 million people with far greater resources than any of the lone baby dragons.
The most remarkable feature about the two regional organizations is their continuity and coherence despite the persistence and often unmanageable turbulence and tensions
that have and still characterize the post-war world. There have been some 100 international,
civil, racial and religious conflicts. Far from abating,
these are growing in number. By comparison the European Community and ASEAN are the still centres in the eye of the storm.
There is apprehension that chaos, not order, is the draft of world politics and economies today. For many, the expectation is that tomorrow will be worse than yesterday and
that history has been a descent from the Golden Age to the Dark Ages. To quote the poet Yeats, though the world is seemingly intact: "Things fall apart, the centre cannot
hold."
Yet the two multi-racial and multi-cultural regional organizations I have mentioned con- tinue to grow in maturity, cohesiveness, and confidence. They believe that
regionalism can survive the buffeting winds and storms.
The European Community, unlike ASEAN, has had far more experience with regional organization because its founding members, in particular Britain, France, Holland,
Belgium and even Germany participated in the creation and management of far-flung complex global empires. Their scientific and technological cultures were many light years
ahead of all preceding cultures and civilizations. However eminent and admirable pre-European tradi- tional civilizations were, the 19th and 20th century culture created by
the West cannot be surpassed or displaced by invoking ancient creeds. Only Japan has so far demonstrated that the gap between medieval and modern cultures can be
narrowed and possibly over taken. Moreover, only Western nations and Japan have demonstrated a capacity for con- structing massive modern empires, though
unfortunately, they demonstrated this by their ability to organize and unleash modern wars. No Asian nation, however, has fought, let alone won, wars of comparable
magnitude. Saddam Hussein's chest-thumping has the resonance of hollow drums.
Western Europeans have over a period of 500 years built a chain of multi-racial and multi-national empires that at their peak stretched from Portugal and Spain to the Pacific
shores of Russia, and parts of Asia and Africa. So reconstituting a West European regional community should be child's play for them.
But creating
and managing, within a brief period of only 25 years, an ASEAN community of six economically and industrially under-developed peoples who
had no experience of administering a modern, complex multi-racial regional organization verges, in my view, on the miraculous.
The reach of the ancient empires of Greece, Rome, China, India, Persia and Babylon, ruled by allegedly Divine emperors, was ludicrously short and their claims of being rulers
of World empires were fanciful exaggerations. The effective extent of their empires did not go beyond the palace and surrounding villages.
Modern nationalism, regionalism and globalism are of a different order politically, economically and even psychologically. Nationalism is a 19th century concept. Earlier forms
of nationalism were, in fact, imperialism. It united petty principalities, states and clans into nations. These have now outlived their usefulness.
But regionalism is based on concepts and aspirations of a higher order. Asian regionalism was first launched on 25 April 1955 at Bandung. It was initially a comprehensive
Afro-Asian Conference presided over by Heads of Government. It included legendary figures like Sukarno. Nehru, Zhou Enlai, Kotalawela of what was then Ceylon, Sihanouk
and Mohammed Ali, the Prime Minister of Pakistan. However, this regional effort did not last long. Asian and African nationalisms which helped speed up the collapse of
Western, and later Japanese imperialisms, did not last long.
Within a few years after its founding, not only Afro-Asian solidarity but also the solidarity of individual Asian and African nation states was in disarray. The destruction of
nationalism is today being brought about, not by Western imperialism, which had already grown weary. thanks to two world wars, of holding sway over palm and pine, but by
Third World nationalism. The economic and political underpinnings of European nationalisms were in fact, even before the start of the 20th century, beginning to crack. In
fact, Lord Acton. towards the end of the 19th century, predicted the inevitable collapse of nationalism. I quote his judgement- "Nationality does not aim either at liberty or
prosperity, both of which it sacrifices to the imperative necessity of making the nation the mould and measure of the state. It will be marked by material and moral ruin." This
prophecy is as accurate today as it was when Lord Acton made it in 1862. So was Karl Marx's prophecy about the inevitable collapse of nationalism but for different reasons.
He predicted the overthrow of nationalism and capitalism by an international proletariat. So did Lenin and so did Mao with their clarion call of: "Workers of the World unite."
Internationalism has a long history. Chinese, Christians, Greeks, Romans and Muslims were never tired of announcing themselves as "World Rulers", However, after World
War II, empires went out of fashion. It is today being gradually replaced by a more rational form of political and economic organization.
The early years of the 20th century witnessed, for example, experiments with a novel form of regionalism -continental regionalism. It was formed by simply prefixing the word
"Pan" to the continents of Europe, Asia and America -Pan-Europa, Pan-America and Pan-Asia, of which Japan, after having in 1905 defeated the Russian fleet in one of the
most decisive naval battles ever fought in the Tsushima Straits, became Asia's most persistent publicist. After World War II, Pan-African and Pan-Arab movements were added
to the list. However, these early "Pan" movements have since then either collapsed totally or are in the process of violent disintegration because of dissension on grounds of
race, religion, language or nation.
However, the word "Pan" has recently been revived in East Europe. It is called "Pan-Slavism" and is today being revived with bloody vengeance. The multi-racial and multicultural Yugoslav nation that President Tito created during World War 11 and which is today being torn apart is a grim warning of what can happen to nations possessed by
racial and religious demons.
The new regionalism that is now emerging out of the ruins of post-World War II nationalism appears to have learnt from the errors of the past. A more sophisticated and
realistic form of regionalism is being constructed, not as an end in itself but as the means towards a higher level of political, social and economic organization.
I propose to do no more than list the names of some of the new regionalisms now taking shape. Basic to this approach is that there is not going to be any sudden great leap
forward from regionalism to globalism. However, none
of the new regionalisms now taking shape are as bold as either the European
must know how to handle
these new regionalisms intelligently. They could be steps towards global peace, progress and cultural
development or they could be fuel for World War III.
Community or ASEAN. The latter two are more rationally focussed regionalism. But a word of caution is necessary. We
Foremost among the new regional approaches is the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) and the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum. Among the many other
regional concepts waiting in the wings are: the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD); the Group of Seven (G7); East Asian Economic Caucus
(EAEC); Pacific Economic Co-operation Conference (PECC); the amiable Little Dragons of South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan for which no acronym has yet been
announced. There are also the distant rumbles of the possible emergence of Big Dragons but as a Chinese saying goes: "There is a lot of noise in the stairways, but nobody has
so far entered the room." One fervently hopes that when a Big Dragon turns up, it would be an amiable Great Dragon and one which would know its way around the Spratly
and Paracel Islands but without being a Dragon in a China shop. World War II started, it must be remembered, simply because the German and Japanese Dragons got their
maps all wrong.
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Real regionalism requires a world-view if it is not to lose its way in the global world of modern technology and science. It must also have a rational and deep understanding of
the new history which is being shaped not by heroic individuals, but through the co-operative inter-action of some 5 billion people who today live in a vastly shrunken planet
and who, thanks to growing literacy and fast-as-light electronic communication, are better informed about the world we live in than earlier generations. Nobody, not even
super-computers can predict what will happen when each day the flow of history is cumulatively determined by individual decisions made by 5 billion human beings who are
asserting their right to a decent and just society. Fewer and fewer people today believe that oppression, hunger and injustice is God's will to which they must meekly submit.
People today know the difference between "Let us pray" and "Let us prey".
The end of the Cold War and the collapse of communism has, in no way, made for a more peaceful world. Wars have ended in the West- ern world but not so elsewhere.
World War III, should it ever be unleashed, would be the last war mankind will ever fight.
Rice Disad
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KOREA IMPACT
Strong ASEAN solves Korean war
CHACHAVALPONGPUN 4-10-2013 (Pavin, Associate Professor at Kyoto University’s Centre for Southeast Asian Studies, “The Crisis on the Korean
Peninsula and ASEAN,” Prachatai, http://prachatai.com/english/node/3566)
Moreover, ASEAN
has its own dispute settlement mechanisms which could be employed as part of preventive
diplomacy. It is true that these mechanisms may not always work, as seen in the case of the Thai-Cambodian conflict over the Preah Vihear Temple. But at least, they
can provide North Korea and South Korea a platform through which they can communicate in order to avoid a
catastrophic war. ASEAN can sincerely offer a channel for negotiation, something that the six-party talk
framework has been unable to do so.
Brunei Darussalam, Koo Choi said, “can play a crucial role, as the chair country of ASEAN this year. ASEAN, as a regional association, can take the
opportunity and play a constructive role and this will increase its prestige, especially under the chairmanship of Brunei". “We look forward to the Brunei
Government’s contribution. We believe in peace and stability, which benefits the ASEAS region. If there are any problems, other countries will also be affected,” he said.
Extinction results
CHOL 2002 (Kim Myong, Director Center for Korean American Peace, 10-24, http://nautilus.org/fora/security/0212A_Chol.html)
Any military strike initiated against North Korea will promptly explode into a thermonuclear exchange between
a tiny nuclear-armed North Korea and the world's superpower, America. The most densely populated Metropolitan
U.S.A., Japan and South Korea will certainly evaporate in The Day After scenario-type nightmare. The New York Times warned in its August 27,
2002 comment: "North Korea runs a more advanced biological, chemical and nuclear weapons program, targets
American military bases and is developing missiles that could reach the lower 48 states. Yet there's good reason President
Bush is not talking about taking out Dear Leader Kim Jong Il. If we tried, the Dear Leader would bombard South Korea and Japan with
never gas or even nuclear warheads, and (according to one Pentagon study) kill up to a million people." U.S. Perception Counts Most What counts most is not so
much North nuclear and missile capability as the American perception that North Korea may have such capability. No matter how true North Korean nuclear capability may,
such capability does not serve the political purposes of Kim Jong Il and his policy planners in dealing with the U.S., unless Washington policy planners perceive North Korean
nuclear threat as real. Their view is of the Americans being hoaxed into suspecting that the North Koreans have already nuclear capability. The Americans are the most
skeptical people in the world. Due to the historic al background of their nation building, they are least ready to trust what others say. What they trust most is guns and money.
This is the reason why the Americans show a strong preference for lie detectors, which are ubiquitous in the U.S. If the North Koreans say that they have nuclear capability, the
immediate American response is to doubt the statement. If the North Koreans deny, the Americans have a typical propensity to suspect that they have. Most interestingly,
Americans readily accept as true acknowledgement after repeated denial. It is easy to imagine how stunned James Kelly and American officials were at the reported postdenial acknowledgement by First Deputy Foreign Minister Kang Sok Ju that the North Koreans have a uranium enrichment centrifuge. As expected, American officials have
been ordered into globe-hopping tours, rallying international support for their campaign to apply pressure to bear upon the North Koreans to dissuade them from their alleged
nuclear weapons program. Bush, Rice, Rumsfeld and other tough guys took special care to paint North Korea as different from Iraq, offering the North Koreans the stripedpants treatment. It is too obvious that indirect diplomacy is not effective now matter how hard the Americans may consult their allies and the allies of North Korea. The past
consultation with Russia and China failed to produce any positive results, because they have little leverage with North Korea. The four-way talks are a case in point, where the
Americans ended up talking with the North Koreans. Three Options Available Then the question arises of how to interpret the reported North Korean admission of the
possession of a uranium enrichment device. One most likely explanation is that it is more of an invitation to diplomatic negotiations than refusal to talk. There are a few
months to go before the target year of 2003 strikes. In other words, the Kang Sok Ju statement means that the North Koreans still keep the nuclear trump card, namely, that
the Bush Administration has no choice but to pick up where the Clinton Administration left off. The Bush Administration
is left with three choices: The
North Korea and let the regime of Kim Jong Il emerge a nuclear power with atomic and thermonuclear weapons
in their arsenal with a fleet of ICBMs locked on to American targets. This option is most likely to set into motion the
domino phenomenon, inducing Japan and South Korea to acquire nuclear arms, making unnecessary the American military
presence on their soil with anti-Americanism rising to new heights. The second choice is for the Americans to initiate military action to knock out the
nuclear facilities in North Korea. Without precise knowledge of the location of those target facilities, the American policy planners face the real risk of
North Korea launching a full-scale war against South Korea, Japan and the U.S. The North Korean retaliation
will most likely leave South Korea and Japan totally devastated with the Metropolitan U.S. being consumed in nuclear
conflagration. Looking down on the demolished American homeland, American policy planners aboard a special Boeing jets will have good cause to claim, "We are
winners, although our homeland is in ashes. We are safely alive on this jet." The third and last option is to agree to a shotgun wedding with the
North Koreans. It means entering into package solution negotiations with the North Koreans, offering to sign a peace treaty to terminate the
first is just to ignore
relations of hostility, establish full diplomatic relations between the two enemy states, withdraw the American forces from South Korea, remove North Korea from the list of
axis of evil states and terrorist-sponsoring states, and give North Korea most favored nation treatment. The first two options should be sobering nightmare scenarios for a wise
Bush and his policy planners. If they should opt for either of the scenarios, that would be their decision, which the North Koreans are in no position to take issue with. The
Americans would realize too late that the North Korean mean what they say. The
North Koreans will use all their resources in their arsenal
to fight a full-scale nuclear exchange with the Americans in the last war of [hu]mankind. A nuclear-armed
North Korea would be most destabilizing in the region and the rest of the world in the eyes of the Americans. They would end up
finding themselves reduced to a second-class nuclear power.
This evidence is gender modified.
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ECON IMPACT
ASEAN key to the global economy—collapse of any member threatens the whole
PITSUWAN 2010 (ASEAN General Secretary Surin Pitsuwan, “ASEAN to contribute to stabilising world economy,” 4/9/2010,
http://english.vov.vn/Politics/ASEAN-to-contribute-to-stabilising-world-economy/114462.vov)
The ASEAN Economic Community Council acknowledged the
quick recovery of the ASEAN economy. We believe that this year all the ASEAN
impressive figure compared to the 1.3 -1.4 percent growth across the region last year and if you
compare that with the global growth rate, the developed countries are still suffering from a minus growth. The emerging economies are
doing better, especially ASEAN and East Asia, which are helping drive global economic growth and pulling the global
economy out of the economic crisis.
economies will grow by about 4.5 – 5 percent. That is a very
The ASEAN Economic Ministers are very much conscious of that and would like to make sure that our growth is sustained. We have noticed that we have made good progress
in attracting investment into ASEAN compared to the year 2000 when we had only US$23 billion. Thanks to economic integration making it one investment area, one market,
in 2008 alone ASEAN attracted US$60 billion.
The ASEAN economic ministers would like to see a large of portion of investment into ASEAN. Only
and unless we can encourage our SMEs, our own
ASEAN enterprises, to invest in each other’s economies, economic integration and one market or economic community will
be very difficult to sustain.
Rice Disad
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ASIAN SECURITY IMPACT
ASEAN is key to Asian security
CHEE 2010 (Kenny, “Central role for Asean in regional security,” AsiaOne News, June 7,
http://www.asiaone.com/News/Latest%2BNews/Asia/Story/A1Story20100607-220629.html)
Asean leaders suggested yesterday that Asean - an association of 10 nations, including Singapore - could
regional security issues could be explored.
become a key platform on which
One way forward could be the first Asean Defence Ministers' Meeting-Plus Eight later this year. The eight other nations are Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, the
Republic of Korea, Russia and the United States.
This new defence meeting would convene about once every three years to discuss traditional defence matters, as well as non-traditional ones like maritime security.
Mr Ong Keng Yong, director of the Institute of Policy Studies at the National University of Singapore, said it marked significant progress. He noted that at past Shangri-La
Dialogues, no concrete materialisation of such a broader security platform had been brought up.
Mr Teo Chee Hean, Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence, said yesterday other
regional forums that have had Asean at the
centre have managed to bring together various major nations to discuss security, economic and other issues.
ASEAN is key to Asian stability
TEO 2009 (Chee Hean Teo is Minister of Defense, Republic of Singapore, “ASEAN and Asia's Regional Security Architecture,” Hampton Roads International Security
Quarterly, Sep 17, Lexis)
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, has a history of developing cooperation out of conflict . When ASEAN was formed
in 1967, the five original members, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, were in the midst of fighting communist insurgencies. Indonesia had just
ended an armed Confrontation with Malaysia and Singapore. The five founding
members decided that they should put conflict behind
them and take the path of cooperation.
They, and Brunei which also joined ASEAN, succeeded beyond expectations, and enjoyed a period of peace and
unprecedented economic growth through to the mid 1990s.
In the 1980s, ASEAN stood against Vietnam's invasion of Cambodia. But by the 1990s, with theof the Cold War, ASEAN was able to bring into the ASEAN family Vietnam (July
1995), Laos (July 1997) and Cambodia (April 1999), countries which once stood on the other side of the Cold War divide.
ASEAN also brought in Myanmar (July 1997), to try to socialise it into the norms of ASEAN - but this is still a work in progress. Today,
ASEAN is an
organisation focused on peaceful cooperation, and though there are disputes between neighbours, the habit of
resolving such disputes through negotiations, or through the ICJ and other international dispute resolution mechanisms is taking root.
The ASEAN countries have learnt through hard experience and current practice, how to forge cooperation out
of conflict. They have also learnt that to have a voice on regional and international issues, the ASEAN countries have to work
together and speak with one voice.
It is this unique combination of a pivotal geographical position at the crossroads of Asia; a history of forging
cooperation out of conflict; and being no threat to anyone but able to act collectively to influence events, that
gives ASEAN a unique role to play in the evolving security architecture in Asia.
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U.S. INFLUENCE IMPACT
Strong ASEAN key to US influence and trade in Asia, solves pandemics, Korean war, climate
change, energy security, and terrorism
THE NATION 11-15-2009 (“US backs central role for Asean,” http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2009/11/15/regional/US-backs-central-role-forAsean-30116623.html)
US President Barack Obama
will today endorse the centrality of Asean in new regional community building and an
expansive role for it in global issues, at the inaugural Asean-US Leaders' Meeting in Singapore.
Obama, who is scheduled to hold a 90-minute meeting this afternoon with the 10 Asean leaders, will also pronounce the policy of engagement with Asean as a key
partner in promoting peace, stability and prosperity in the region.
The historic meeting, which is being co-chaired by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, marks the first meeting between the leaders of the two sides. It will also be the first time in
43 years that a Burmese prime minister has met a US leader.
The draft joint statement, seen by The Nation on Sunday, touches on the whole gamut of Asean and US relations in the past 32 years related to political/security,
economic/investment and social development issues.
The draft also included Abhisit's proposal of Asean connectivity, which aims at promoting infrastructure and communication links within Asean, including people-to-people
contacts.
Obama will reaffirm the importance of Asean's centrality in building regional architecture, which must be inclusive, promote shared values and norms and respect the diversity
within the region.
This is in line with his Tokyo speech on Asia yesterday, when he said: "Asean
cooperation and security."
will remain a catalyst for Southeast Asian dialogue,
The US will also express support for the Asean Inter-government Commission for Human Rights, including the track-two initiatives. Washington will invite members of the
AICHR to the US to meet their counterparts.
Leaders of Asean and the US are expected to discuss regional and international issues. Topping the agenda will be the situation in Burma particularly Aung San Suu Kyi's freedom - and North Korea. Various efforts related to transnational issues, such as climate
change, energy security, terrorism, pandemics and disaster management, will also be discussed.
The outcome of a recent visit to Burma by two senior US officials will be discussed. On Burma, the leaders will stress that the US approach will "contribute to broad political
and economic reforms and the process will be enhanced in the future".
Obama yesterday called for the release of Suu Kyi ahead of the leaders' meeting.
The leaders of Asean and the US will jointly urge the Burmese government to hold free, fair, fully inclusive and transparent elections next year, including a dialogue with all
stakeholders.
The Asean leaders are expected to support the US call for a nuclear-free world. Together, they will call for North Korea to return to the six-party talks.
Despite the US reluctance to call its first meeting with Asean a summit, both sides have agreed to meet next year. At the meeting today, Obama is expected to invite all the
Asean leaders to the US next year.
US-Asean relations have been bolstered following the new US policy towards Asia. In August, Washington signed the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, which further
strengthened the three-decade relationship.
According to the draft statement, both sides have agreed to set up a joint Asean-US Eminent Persons Group to address regional and global issues. This group can work on
issues tasked by their leaders, such as the Asean-US Free Trade Agreement.
The US has yet to agree to Asean requests on the regular participation of the Asean chair at G-20 summits and Washington's support for non-Apec Asean members.
Former US president George W Bush met Asean leaders three times - in October 2002 in Los Cabos, Mexico; in December 2005, in Busan, South Korea; and in September
2007, in Sydney. These meetings were on the sidelines of the Apec leaders' meetings and were limited to seven Asean members. Cambodia, Laos and Burma are not members
of the Apec forum.
The US plans to open a permanent office in Jakarta with an Asean ambassador before the end of the year. China stated last month it would do the same soon.
Before he meets Asean leaders, Obama will hold a separate summit with Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Obama, who skipped Indonesia this year, plans to
go there next summer with his family. He spent four and half years of his childhood in the country.
Last year, bilateral
Asean-US trade reached US$178 billion (Bt5.9 trillion), while US investment in Asean amounted to
$153 billion.
Other key dialogue partners such as China, Japan, South Korea and India have an annual summit with Asean leaders. Russia is planning a second summit next year in Hanoi
under the new Asean chair, Vietnam.
***INDIA IMPACT
Rice Disad
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7wk Seniors ACHM 2012
2NC VIETNAM-INDIA IMPACT
Strong Vietnamese growth is key to Indian power
GHOSHAL 2012 (Baladas, Distinguished Fellow, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi, “Why India should look at Vietnam more keenly,” Indian
Strategic Studies, Dec 10, http://strategicstudyindia.blogspot.com/2012/12/why-india-should-look-at-vietnam-more.html)
Vietnam is important in the promotion of India’s political, economic and security interests in South-East Asia, and in turn,
in the success of our Look-East Policy. Vietnam's strategic position — as a neighbour of China, situated parallel to the great
sea trade routes of Asia — always made the country tremendously important.
Vietnam’s geographical configuration with a coast-line of over 3.300 km in length gives it a strategic footing in the naval waters extending
from China’s doorstep in the Gulf of Tonkin, a long littoral on the South China Sea, and ending with another dimension in the Gulf of Thailand. Its size and
resources make it the politically and military predominant country in the Indo-China peninsula. While the above was
earlier significant only to the United States and Japan in terms of lifeline sea-lanes running parallel to the Vietnamese littoral, it is also increasingly
becoming important to India, as a major part of its trade takes place through the seas. India, therefore, has a stake
in helping Vietnam emerge as a strong regional power and invigorate an Asian order that rejects hegemonic dominance by any power, not at
least by China. The two countries have a common stake in the safety of the Sea Lines of Communication, particularly in South China Sea.
Vietnam's strategic significance has increased dramatically, owing to huge — and not always widely recognised — transformations in
its economic performance and foreign-policy orientation. Reinvigorated by two decades of rapid economic growth and a
broad-based opening to the outside world, Vietnam is now an emerging player in regional economic and
security affairs. Indeed, in recent months the country has played a pivotal role in helping to establish Asia's emerging security order. In October 2010, Hanoi hosted
the East Asian Summit, a meeting at which the US and Russia were recognised as Asian powers with vital national interests in the region.
Strong Vietnam is key to Indian power
GHOSHAL 2009 (Baladas, former Professor and Chair, South-East Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University; New Delhi; he is currently a Senior Visiting
Fellow, Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, “India’s Look-East Policy and Vietnam,” Mainstream Weekly, Sep 19, http://www.mainstreamweekly.net/article1639.html)
Vietnam is important in the promotion of India’s political, economic and security interests in South-East Asia, and in
turn, in the success of our Look-East Policy. Vietnam is a potential regional power in South-East Asia with great political stability
and a successful economic performer with an annual growth rate of seven per cent. Vietnam’s geo-strategic location, its
demonstrated military prowess and its national will-power lends it a critical place in the strategic calculus of South-East Asia.
Economically, Vietnam with its stress on economic liberalisation offers very attractive preferential prospects for Indian foreign
direct investment (FDI). In terms of India’s energy security, Vietnam’s offshore oil deposit offers opportunities for
exploration and eventual supply to India. On political and foreign policy issues Vietnam had been a consistent supporter of
India, including our scheme for the reform of the United Nations and our recent bid for permanent membership in the Security
Council. Apart from cooperation in the bilateral framework, the two countries have maintained close cooperation and mutual support at the regional and international
fora such as the UN, NAM and other mechanisms in the ASEAN like the ARF, East Asia Summit and Mekong-Ganga Cooperation. In more concrete terms, India can play a
vital role in the capacity building of Vietnam’s military deterrence capabilities.
The impact turns and outweighs everything else—ends in extinction
KAMDAR 2007 (Mira Kamdar, World Policy Institute, 2007, Planet India: How the fastest growing democracy is transforming America and the world, p. 3-5)
No other country matters more to the future of our planet than India. There is no challenge we face, no opportunity we
covet where India does not have critical relevance. From combating global terror to finding cures for dangerous
pandemics, from dealing with the energy crisis to averting the worst scenarios of global warming, from
rebalancing stark global inequalities to spurring the vital innovation needed to create jobs and improve lives—
India is now a pivotal player. The world is undergoing a process of profound recalibration in which the rise of
Asia is the most important factor. India holds the key to this new world. India is at once an ancient Asian civilization, a modern nation
grounded in Enlightenment values and democratic institutions, and a rising twenty-first-century power. With a population of 1.2 billion, India is the world’s largest democracy.
It is an open, vibrant society. India’s diverse population includes Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs, Christians, Buddhists, Jains, Zoroastrians, Jews, and animists. There are twenty-two
official languages in India. Three hundred fifty million Indians speak English. India is the world in microcosm. Its geography encompasses every climate, from snowcapped
Himalayas to palm-fringed beaches to deserts where nomads and camels roam. A developing country, India is divided among a tiny affluent minority, a rising middle class,
and 800 million people who live on less than $2 per day. India
faces all the critical problems of our time—extreme social inequality,
employment insecurity, a growing energy crisis, severe water shortages, a degraded environment, global warming, a
galloping HIV/AIDS epidemic, terrorist attacks—on a scale that defies the imagination. India’s goal is
breathtaking in scope: transform a developing country of more than 1 billion people into a developed nation
and global leader by 2020, and do this as a democracy in an era of resource scarcity and environmental
degradation. The world has to cheer India on. If India fails, there is a real risk that our world will become
hostage to political chaos, war over dwindling resources, a poisoned environment, and galloping disease. Wealthy
enclaves will employ private companies to supply their needs and private militias to protect them from the poor massing at their gates. But, if India succeeds, it
will demonstrate that it is possible to lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. It will prove that
Rice Disad
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multiethnic, multireligious democracy is not a luxury for rich societies. It will show us how to save our
environment, and how to manage in a fractious, multipolar world. India’s gambit is truly the venture of the century.
***A2: 2AC ANS
Rice Disad
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7wk Seniors ACHM 2012
A2: VIETNAM ECON DOESN’T MATTER
Vietnam is key to Asian growth
THE EDGE 2010 (Capital: Vietnam: Asia's next growth story The Edge Malaysia March 29, 2010, lexis)
Vietnam is Asia's new poster child for development. The war that dominates most people's perception is now a distant memory. In fact, the
progress Vietnam has achieved in the past 23 years since the government decided to embark on a new path called Doi Moi (" reform") has been nothing short
of an economic miracle. In the mid-1980s the government decided to steer towards a socialist market economy, replicating the market reform success stories of
centrally planned economies such as China. In 2008, this steadfast commitment to market liberalisation culminated in Vietnam joining the World Trade Organisation, gaining
a position as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, and achieving a milestone per capita income surpassing US$1,000.
The Vietnamese people are now enjoying their new-found wealth. Indeed, Vietnamese
consumers seem to be amongst the least impacted
by the global financial crisis, as evidenced by YTD retail sales growth of 18% compared with the same period in 2008. Perhaps the local enthusiasm is a result
of the explosion of foreign brand names that are entering the marketplace. Whereas two years ago the scene was completely dominated by "mom and pop" shops, a retail
experience today in Ho Chi Minh City might include shopping at the likes of Louis Vuitton, Click for Enhanced Coverage Linking SearchesGucci, Marc Jacobs and Malaysian-
Vietnam, in a 2008
first among 30 emerging markets as the most attractive retail destination for foreign
businesses, as they recognise the vast consumer-driven potential of the country.
owned department store, Parkson, a stop for refreshments at the Circle K, lunch at the Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf, and dinner at the Hard Rock Café.
survey by A T Kearney, ranked
Consumers are not alone in demonstrating resilience in Vietnam during this global downturn. Spurred by an effective government stimulus package, Vietnam is in the midst of
a V-shaped economic recovery. Although Vietnam has not been immune to the global financial crisis - in 2009 export growth was down 9.7% and GDP grew 5.3% which was
below the country's five-year (2004-2008) average of nearly 8% per year - some estimates point to Vietnam returning to normal growth this year, with Credit Suisse recently
announcing that Vietnam can realistically achieve 8.5% GDP growth in 2010.
Unfortunately, this hyperactivity in growth has come at a cost in the past. In 2008, Vietnam was plagued with high inflation and a large trade deficit, which led to the local
benchmark Vietnam Index being the second worst performing in the world according to Bloomberg. At the peak, borrowing cost for Vietnamese companies was 21%, thus
many were starved of capital which was partially responsible for Vietnam's sub-par 6.2% GDP growth rate in 2008. But the government has shown a great capacity for learning
from its mistakes, and already there are strong indications that it is battling emerging macro-economic imbalances much better, without having to sacrifice too much in the
growth department.
While acknowledging there have been and will continue to be bumps along the way in Vietnam's rapid economic rise, one cannot look past the list of compelling forces that
have led to and will continue to serve as catalysts for the country's economic growth. These can be summarised into four factors.
First, Vietnam
is the most politically stable, non-city state member of Asean and ranks ahead of all the BRIC (Brazil, Russia,
government continues its strong commitment to opening up
its markets across both industrial and services sectors, and is well positioned as a primary beneficiary of the
"China plus one" strategy to diversify production outside of an increasingly expensive China.
India and China) countries according to the World Bank. Vietnam's
The second factor that makes the Vietnam growth story so compelling is its extremely attractive population demographic. With 87 million people, Vietnam is more than three
times larger than Malaysia. And with lower labour costs than China, a literacy rate of 93%, and 65% of the population of working age, Vietnam is attracting foreign companies
like Nike and Intel which have built factories to exploit this demographic advantage over regional neighbours.
This leads to the third factor, that is Vietnam's explosive domestic demand driven by a large population riding on rapid industrialisation and realising new-found wealth.
Discretionary spending is a new concept for most Vietnamese, and that's where the significant growth potential for goods and services lies in Vietnam. For example, currently
it is estimated that about 17% of the population have a bank account, and less than 10% have insurance coverage. Urbanisation is taking hold, with young consumers starting
families queuing for many hours in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi every time new mid-end apartment buildings are launched. As shown in the accompanying chart, Vietnam
still lags behind many of its wealthier neighbours in terms of internet and mobile phone users.
Famous for its agricultural base, Vietnam is also a resource rich country with exports equalling 70.7% of GDP in 2008, which brings us to our fourth point. Vietnam's exports
of goods have grown by 2.3 times during the period 2004-2008. Vietnam is the world's second largest exporter of rice and coffee, and the second largest exporter of crude oil
in Asean behind Malaysia (crude oil exports accounted for 11.6% of GDP in 2008). Vietnam has a relatively balanced mix of export destinations - the USA (20.5%), Asean
(17.6%), the EU (21.3%), and Japan (14.8%) (2008).
Vietnam also has many of the raw materials necessary to drive its industrial growth, including oil, natural gas, bauxite, nickel, iron ore, coal, gold, copper, tungsten, titanium,
and so on. Vietnam's first oil refinery came online earlier this year, supplying about one third of Vietnam's petroleum demand. For Vietnam's future sustainable high growth,
the abundant resource base is vital.
Vietnam has been labelled the "next China" by the media and analysts for several years because of these four factors. They are the underlying catalysts
for surging foreign direct investment (FDI) into Vietnam with US$64 billion in 2008, tripling 2007 levels, and almost double India's 2008 FDI. In fact, Malaysian businesses
chipped in nearly US$15 billion of that total. However, critical to Vietnam's future success will be a strong commitment to long-term improvements in real infrastructure
(roads, ports, and industrial parks), social infrastructure (healthcare and education), development of its capital markets, as well as better control over monetary imbalances
and inflationary pressures. Pundits are applauding the policy actions taken by the State Bank of Vietnam over the past three months through interest rate hikes and currency
devaluations, perhaps indicating that Vietnam is swift in learning from past mistakes and addressing the growing pains that impact so many emerging economies.
At the end of the day, the indications are that Vietnam is in the early stages of a golden era of economic development where
government commitment, domestic consumption trends and foreign investor interest together form a potent combination which will drive long-term average GDP growth
rates that
will exceed many of its Asian peers. Much like China was becoming 10 years ago, or Malaysia some 30 years ago, Vietnam is becoming today.
Count Vietnam in as one of Asia's new rng (dragons).
Vietnam is a key developing country and economic model to others
THAI NEWS SERVICE 2010 (Vietnam/United Kingdom: Deputy PM concludes UK visit Thai News Service September 13, 2010, lexis)
The UK officials spoke highly of Vietnam 's socio-economic development achievements, especially the country's high economic growth rate and socio-political stability in the
context of the global economic crisis.
They noted that Vietnam
has become a leading newly-emerging economy in the region with its position increasingly
rising in the international arena, serving as an outstanding model among developing countries.
Rice Disad
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7wk Seniors ACHM 2012
A2 EXPORTS NOW
American exports are dropping and Vietnam is dominating Cuban trade, but the plan reverses
this
FNL 2012 (Fox News Latino, “Floundering US Exports to Cuba Buck Optimism,” Nov 10, http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2012/11/10/floundering-us-exportsto-cuba-buck-optimism/)
Many of America's best-known brands were on display at a Havana exposition center this past week as representatives hawked some of the few U.S. products that can legally
be exported to Cuba, thanks to an exception to the U.S. embargo allowing cash-up-front sales of food, agricultural goods and medicine.
But cold
numbers belie the enthusiasm on the convention center floor. Cuban purchases of U.S. goods have plunged as the
island increasingly turns to countries like China, Brazil, Vietnam and Venezuela, which offer cheaper deals, long-term credits and less hassle over
payment and shipping.
"The pattern that we see is it's just continuing to either be lower each year, or if it does increase, it's just not a lot at all," said John Kavulich, senior policy adviser to the New
York-based U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council. "No
executives should be going to a travel agent and buying a ticket to go
down to Havana thinking that there's going to be a change."
U.S. sales of food and agricultural commodities to the communist-run island began more than a decade ago with the Trade
Sanctions Reform Act enacted in 2000 under President Clinton. Modest sales of $138 million the following year rose steadily to a peak of $710 million in 2008, according to
statistics calculated by Kavulich's group.
The value of U.S. exports to Cuba has since plummeted to just over half that last year at $358 million. It was $250 million through the first six
months of 2012, with no sign of improvement.
It's been a tenuous trade from the beginning, partly due to U.S. rules requiring cash payment before goods can even be shipped.
Payments must be made through third-party banking systems that take a hefty cut of each transaction, besides the fees levied on multiple currency swaps. Shipping is
complicated by U.S. embargo regulations. Moreover, the PR value of buying Made In America faded for Cuba as it became commonplace to see Coca-
Cola in tourist hotels and Miller beer on store shelves.
So when a plunging global economy pulled Cuba down with it five years ago, Havana had every incentive to hunt for a better deal from friendly nations where government-run
companies offer better terms and often won't complain publicly about rolling over late payments. Even private-sector companies in those countries may be more pliant,
counting on guarantees by their governments.
"Cuba can still never beat the U.S. for many of the products — not all, but many," Kavulich said. "But when
you add into the equation the lack of
ability to directly have payment terms, the inability to use more efficient transportation systems between the
two countries and the lack of political benefit, then the Cuban government will turn elsewhere."
As the fair opened this week, state-run food purchaser Alimport calculated it will spend $105 million more than necessary on U.S. imports due to unfavorable credit terms,
currency exchanges and logistical losses in shipping.
"Since
vessels from other countries that dock in Cuban ports must wait six months to go to the United States,
the shippers charge high freights," Alimport vice president Eidel M. Mussi Velazquez said.
The company projected $440 million in U.S. purchases this year, well off the $960 million reported in 2008. The Cuban statistics don't compare directly to the Trade Council's
since they apparently factor in the extra expenditures, but they trace the same depressed pattern.
By comparison, according to Cuban figures for 2010, the most recent year available, commercial trade with Venezuela nearly doubled from the previous year to a little over $6
billion. Chinese trade was still down from pre-crisis levels but trending upward to $1.9 billion in 2010.
While purchases
grains.
of some U.S. goods have held steady, such as poultry and soybeans, others have tanked, including branded processed foods and
The Spartan booth manned by Kevin McGilton, vice president for sales of Arkansas-based Riceland, was a case in point.
U.S. rice exports to Cuba totaled 20,000 to 30,000 metric tons a year before the economic crisis, but were zero last year, he said. Vietnamese
government rice companies have long beat out U.S. suppliers by offering "broken" rice that doesn't look as
pretty as U.S. rice but is cheaper. The country also has been extending multiyear credit terms.
Cuba "didn't have the hard currency to pay cash in advance, which is what they have to do with U.S. companies," McGilton said, adding that the only promising leads he had
during the trade show this week came from other countries, such as Mexico.
Still, those doing business with Havana kept up a cheery tone at the fair, which included 500 exhibitors from overseas and ended Saturday.
The pavilion that housed U.S. delegations bustled as workers in matching T-shirts dumped fistfuls of Reese's Peanut Butter Cups into the hands of conventioneers and handed
out canvas bags stuffed with Skittles candies. Cubans took turns posing for pictures with a person dressed as an oversize Hershey's chocolate bar.
Conventioneers praised Alimport for professionalism and savvy, and played down the importance of the credit restrictions.
Richard N. Waltzer, president of Procurement Systems Inc., said a recent U.S. policy allowing Cuban-Americans to send more money to islanders has increased their ability to
purchase the U.S. brand names his company distributes.
PSI's Cuba business has grown 30 percent a year for the last decade, and Waltzer was optimistic about Cuba's expanding tourism industry and growing small private enterprise
under President Raul Castro's reforms.
"They're modeling their new economic model after Vietnam and China, so in the future it's opening up for capitalism," he said. "And bringing in these great American brands, I
believe, is going to take it to the next level."
Todd P. Haymore, secretary of agriculture and forestry for Virginia, which shipped $65 million in agricultural goods to Cuba last year, said the island is a consistent top 15
market.
But businesspeople back home see bigger possibilities if embargo rules are simplified .
"They feel like you might lose out on a sale or capturing additional sales because of these additional fees, additional turns of currency. ... Every time you go from one country to
the next there's always a loss," Haymore said. "Someone's gaining a piece of that pie that's not going into your back pocket."
Those at the fair were also jockeying to be in position for an unknown future date when the U.S. sanctions might disappear altogether.
"Cuba is becoming a more and more important market for U.S. companies. ... Everybody wants to have some kind of presence," said
Hector Rainey, managing director of Intervision Foods of Atlanta. " If something changes all of a sudden, they have an angle here."
Rice Disad
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7wk Seniors ACHM 2012
A2: STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS
Vietnam has resolved structural economic problems
GEARY 2012 (Sean, MA candidate in International Relations, “Vietnamese economy slows, but it’s not all bad news,” Emergency Money, May 25,
http://emergingmoney.com/etfs/vietnamese-economy-slows-vnm-indy/#sthash.qXzKff7s.dpuf)
While growth continues to diminish, it appears as if the
hindering its economic performance.
Vietnamese economy has ameliorated some of the structural deficiencies
As with many other export-dependent emerging market economies, Vietnam has been adversely affected by the global slowdown in the wake of the euro zone crisis. GDP
growth in the Vietnamese economy has weakened to just 4% for the first quarter of 2012; down substantially from the heady growth of past years.
However, unlike India (INDY, quote) where slowing growth has been accompanied by rising consumer prices creating stagflationary pressure, inflation
is quickly
dissipating in Vietnam. While over 20% last summer, the inflation rate in Vietnam has fallen to 8.3% year-over-year for the month of May, a significant drop from the
10.5% levels of April’s year-over-year data.
Slowing inflation gives the Vietnamese central bank more flexibility in their policy options . While authorities have spent
most of the past year raising interest rates in order to combat inflation, slashing interest rates to spur growth becomes more feasible, as was evidenced by the central bank’s
decision to lower rates today.
Furthermore, Vietnam’s nagging current
account deficit has contracted, with exports far outpacing imports last quarter.
Both the narrowing trade deficit and lower inflation mean that Vietnam is in the process of remedying the
structural problems that had previously plagued its economy.
Vietnamese-focused firm Dragon Capital claims that “(c)rucially, the economic data help to underline the argument that the recent
economic success Vietnam has enjoyed is not merely a ‘flash in the pan’, but is instead more symptomatic of an
economy successfully transforming itself from a ‘frontier market’ into one that can be deemed to be ‘emerging’.”
Vietnam is resolving structural economic problems—fundamentals are strong
SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST 2010 (“It's time for Hanoi to take centre stage” March 17, 2010, lexis)
Yet Townsend, managing director of property services and consulting firm CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) Vietnam, predicts
a market shift this year, with Hanoi set to shine.
Underscoring his optimistic outlook is Vietnam's economic fundamentals. The country maintained positive
GDP growth amid the global economic turbulence, Townsend says, noting it is one of the few countries in Asia
with strong positive economic growth.
Vietnam was the only Asean country to increase quarter-on-quarter growth rate last year, up 5.9 per cent for the whole year.
It recorded the third quickest post-economic tsunami recovery after China and India, beating other Southeast Asian neighbours.
Even though Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Vietnam dropped last year, compared with 2008, it was still the second highest year on record at US$21.48 billion.
Investors are returning and, this year, FDI is tipped to reach US$22 billion to US$25 billion. Gold prices are consolidating, and the
stock market is expecting more foreign funds to flow in this year.
Townsend adds that confidence in the Vietnamese currency, the dong, is improving. "There is still devaluation pressure in the
short term, but stability should return on export strength and reduction of the government stimulus."
Major infrastructure projects are continuing to ease congestion in Hanoi and open up links to provinces over the next five
to 10 years.
Rice Disad
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7wk Seniors ACHM 2012
A2: U.S. RICE EXPORTS GOOD
Exports will recover without the Cuban market, it’s volatile, and there are lots of alt causes
DFP 12-9-2011 (Delta Farm Press, “U.S. rice exports to increase in 2012-13,” http://deltafarmpress.com/rice/us-rice-exports-increase-2012-13)
U.S. rice exports, particularly for long-grain, are expected to recover next marketing year, after the significant decline in 2011-12,
according to Nathan Childs, senior rice market analyst with USDA’s Economic Research Service.
Speaking at the USA Rice Outlook Conference in Austin, Texas, Childs says the projected 19 percent decline
in U.S. exports in 2011-12, was due to higher
prices, strong competition from other suppliers and a tight situation in the U.S. long grain crop.
U.S. exports are projected to reach the lowest level since the mid-1990s during this marketing season, according to Childs. Most of the decline is for long-grain milled rice.
Projected domestic use of rice also declined, after reaching record levels the previous year. Long grain U.S. exports for 2011-12 are projected 23
percent lower, while medium grain is just fractionally down.
Domestic and international demand is already sufficient for US rice production
DFP 12-9-2011 (Delta Farm Press, “U.S. rice exports to increase in 2012-13,” http://deltafarmpress.com/rice/us-rice-exports-increase-2012-13)
On the demand side in 2012-2013, Childs sees a larger domestic use of rice, which continues to grow at about the same rate as the population. “We
see a big boost in long grain exports. We think the United States will become more price competitive and retain
many of those export markets. We see a little bit of an increase in medium grain exports, unless another exporter has a weather problem.
Childs projects lower U.S. long grain, rough rice prices on higher production in 2012-13. There should be a slight boost in medium grain prices
due to a little stronger global demand and higher income by buyers.
Export growth will be slow and access barriers mean rice is not key
PARK 2010 (Beth, Manager, International Policy for USA Rice Federation, “The National Export Initiative and the U.S. rice industry,”
http://www.ricefarming.com/home/issues/2010-05/2010_MayUSARiceFed.html)
Doubling exports by 2015 may prove challenging, as the rest of the world’s countries also will be looking to
bring their economies out of the recession. Most of the administration’s steps for the NEI will take considerable
time to implement. However, there are several areas where immediate attention and action could lead to job creation and maintenance, while increasing U.S. exports.
Market access barriers
As a historic net ex-porter, agriculture is one industry that can take the lead. But U.S.
agriculture is being held back on several fronts and
many market access barriers face U.S.-grown rice, in particular. First and foremost, Congress and the
administration need to resolve the U.S. ban on Mexican long-haul trucks entering the United States. Thirteen
months ago, Mexico subjected 90 agricultural and manufactured goods to increased import tariffs for violating
terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement. So far, this has cost the United States $2.6 billion in lost
exports and more than 25,000 lost jobs.
Many of the market access barriers facing U.S. agriculture can only be addressed by negotiating a fair
multilateral trade agreement within the World Trade Organization (WTO). Concluding the Doha Round will be paramount to the success of the NEI.
Furthermore, three pending free trade agreements (FTAs) are waiting for action by Congress. Two of those FTAs, with Colombia and Panama, offer immediate benefits to the
U.S. rice industry. The
United States is lagging behind the rest of the world and losing its competitive edge by being a
party to only 17 out of 400 existing FTAs.
Cuba’s not key—China will create a new market for US rice
PARK 2010 (Beth, Manager, International Policy for USA Rice Federation, “The National Export Initiative and the U.S. rice industry,”
http://www.ricefarming.com/home/issues/2010-05/2010_MayUSARiceFed.html)
A potential new market for U.S. rice is China. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that China imported roughly 330,000 MT from
Thailand and Vietnam in 2008-09. A lack of a phytosanitary protocol with China prohibits U.S. rice from entering the
country. Once this protocol is negotiated and implemented, U.S. rice exporters can begin market development
in this important market.
Exports are already high enough to avoid recession and rice isn’t key
BUSINESS INSIDER 2012 (“MADE IN USA: The Top 10 Manufactured Products In America's $2 Trillion Export Industry,” March 8,
http://www.businessinsider.com/usa-manufactured-products-exports-america-2012-3?op=1#ixzz2XnzUDyDv)
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the
U.S. exported $2.1 trillion worth of goods in 2011.
And a according to a new study by the Brookings titled Export Nation 2012, exports played a major role in pulling the U.S. economy out of
recession, even as jobs were vanishing.
Exports jumped by over 11 percent in 2010--the first year of the recovery. This represented the fastest growth rate since 1997.
Jobs supported by exports grew by 6 percent during that same period.
“Exports
are helping to lead us out of the recession and into recovery,” says Emilia Istrate, lead author of the new report.
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"Manufacturing
industries accounted for about 61 percent of U.S. exports and produced three-quarters of the
nation’s additional sales abroad between 2009 and 2010."
***AFF ANSWERS
Rice Disad
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AFF—U.S. RICE ADD-ON
Lifting the Cuban embargo is key to US rice exports—that revitalizes the economy and is key to
US and global rice supply
EATON 2010 (Tim, “Texas rice farmers hope Cuba embargo ends,” Austin American Statesman, August 2, http://www.statesman.com/news/news/state-regionalgovt-politics/texas-rice-farmers-hope-cuba-embargo-ends-1/nRwjg/)
Texas rice
farmers, like the Wynns, are particularly well-positioned to take advantage of a policy change that would
open up Cuba.
Some Texas rice farmers are barely profitable now, and they have said that trade with Cuba would allow for periods of
consistent solvency.
For the past several years, many people in Texas rice country have been complaining about how difficult it has been to make any money. They said they see Cuba as a
way to increase profits and allow them to continue growing rice for people in the U.S. and around the world .
Wynn said Cuba's hunger for rice is so great that the country could take every single grain of rice that Texas produces in its two harvests each year.
Texas produces about 475,000 tons of rice a year, and Cubans eat an estimated 800,000 tons of the white grain every year. Rice
is one of the staples in
Cubans' diet, making the country the biggest consumer of rice in the Caribbean region.
Dan Gertson, a neighbor by country standards of the Wynns', has been one of the area's most vocal proponents of trade with Cuba.
Such trade would help farmers
the shadows of his towering grain bins.
maintain or increase the amount of rice-growing acres in Texas, Gertson said from his office in
There are now about 170,000 acres of rice farms in the state, and expanded
trade with Cuba could lead to as much as 200,000
productive acres, he said.
Conversely, if Cuban trade remains limited, then the industry will continue to suffer and shrink as farmers
close down their operations, Wynn said.
Agricultural exports are key to the US economy
BUSINESS WIRE 1996 (“Agriculture exports key to local economy and jobs,” Feb 22,
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Agriculture+exports+key+to+local+economy+and+jobs-a018020422)
Sunkist Growers Thursday joined in calling on the Administration and Congress to act to ensure that agriculture export programs, including the Market Promotion Program,
continue to be adequately funded and aggressively implemented as part of any new Farm Bill now under consideration in Congress.
Without such action, Sunkist President Russell L. Hanlin said, America's farmers, ranchers and workers will be at a substantial competitive disadvantage in the global
marketplace. Reduced
exports would mean slower economic growth, a worsening trade deficit, lower farm income
and declining job opportunities for thousands of American workers. The effects, he added, would be felt not only
nationally, but locally as well.
"Exports," Hanlin said, "are a key part of our overall business and account for a significant share of jobs among the more than
10,000 employees in Sunkist's cooperative organization. These jobs translate into wages and benefits which support other jobs throughout our community, provide for an
expanded tax base and help strengthen our local and regional economy. Without exports, these important benefits would be lost."
Overall, U.S. agriculture exports this year are expected to total more than $50 billion. In addition to accounting for as much as one-third or more of domestic production,
such exports help generate as much as $100 billion in economic activity, result in a positive trade balance of
more than $20 billion helping to reduce the nation's overall trade deficit, and provide billions of dollars in
additional tax revenues and jobs for more than one million Americans.
Hanlin said the challenge to continued export growth is the fact the global marketplace is still characterized by subsidized
foreign competition. The European Union European Union (EU), name given since the ratification (Nov., 1993) of the Treaty of European Union, or Maastricht Treaty, to the
European Community and other foreign competitors, he said, continue to heavily outspend the United States in terms of export subsidies and are engaging in other market
promotion activities to capture a larger share of the world market.
"This underscores the continued importance of maintaining funding for programs such as United States Department of Agriculture's Market Promotion Program," Hanlin
said. "The
choice is simple. We can export our products or we can export our jobs ."
Export growth is key to the US economy
CHANG 2009 (Jack, “With U.S. economy stuck, economists look abroad for growth,” McClatchy Newspapers, Jan 11, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2009/01/11/vprint/59481/with-us-economy-stuck-economists.html)
As U.S. consumers stop spending and investors keep their money to themselves, government and business
leaders hoping to get the country's ailing economy moving again are playing one of their few remaining cards.
They're trying to sell more U.S. goods overseas despite the decline of both global demand and U.S. competitiveness.
Exports currently make up about 13 percent of the country's total economic activity, far less than the 70 percent taken up by
production for domestic consumption. But that's where economic growth can still happen, analysts say, especially as the domestic housing and
credit crises promise to freeze spending at home for at least another year.
Economists and business leaders suggest the incoming Obama administration implement export-friendly measures such as streamlining U.S. customs operations, negotiating
more free trade agreements and developing industries such as alternative energy that can become the next generation of U.S. economic powerhouses.
"The
role of exports is colossal," said John Murphy, vice president of international affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "Over the past two years,
exports were one of the few bright spots for the U.S. economy. We're going to need strength there in any
recovery."
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That's been the strategy of St. Charles, Ill.-based motor manufacturer Bison Gear & Engineering, which has seen its international sales jump by 50 percent over the past three
years despite an overall decline of 10 percent since 2004 in the general motor market.
The company, like other exporters, benefited from the U.S. dollar falling by 22 percent between 2002 and 2008, which made many of its products cheaper overseas. The
dollar's recent rebound, however, has erased some of that advantage.
"I see (exports) as an important component to our future," said the company's owner, Ron Bullock. "We're investing in that area and adding people to support it."
While the rest of the economy suffered, U.S. exporters had their best year ever in 2008, when they fueled an
all-time high 12.8 percent of total U.S. economic activity, Murphy said.
The top U.S. exports were aircraft, entertainment products, machinery and transport equipment. Manufactured goods made up 60 percent of all U.S. exports.
Export growth was crucial to keeping the U.S. economy expanding, albeit at a meager pace, rather than falling into an
early recession over 2006 and 2007, Murphy said.
Rice Disad
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AFF—RICE NOT UNIQUE
Rice exports are already too low to sustain Vietnamese growth and Cuba isn’t key
VIETNAM.NET 6-5-2013 (Aggregate demand cannot be recovered just on exports, http://english.vietnamnet.vn/fms/business/75925/aggregate-demandcannot-be-recovered-just-on-exports.html)
A recent report of the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) said that the Vietnamese national economy would have to rely on the exports, which still have
been growing. However, if only relying
on the export growth, the economy recovery would go very slowly.
is now more difficult to boost export. The export prices of some Vietnamese key products have decreased. The
Japanese yen appreciation has hindered Vietnamese export products to enter the Japanese market, the most
important export market for Vietnam.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Information Center has quoted the latest statistics of the General Department of Customs as saying that the export turnover in
the first half of May 2013 was $5.11 billion, down by 5 percent in comparison with the second half of April.
Meanwhile, it
The export turnover of the foreign invested enterprises, which churn out 60 percent of the total exports of Vietnam, was also modest in the first half of May, $3.14 billion, a
decrease of 6.5 percent over the second half of April.
In the first half of May 2013, the Vietnamese total export turnover decreased by $327 million with the sharp decreases in the turnover of the key export items. The export
turnover of transport -- means and vehicle parts reduced by $159 million, equipment and machinery parts decreased by $46 million and steel products by $39 million.
The rapid fired bad
news about rice export have come. No proper solution has been found to stop the export price
decreases and protect farmers, though a lot of meetings and workshops were gathered to discuss the matter.
The information center has informed that Vietnam exported 2.38 million tons of rice by May 16, 2013. Meanwhile, only 233,645 tons were exported in the first
half of May, which was lower than the exports in the same period of the two months before, 700 tons a month.
However, the bigger problem was that the rice export price has decreased dramatically to the 10 month deepest low to $410 per ton, or 5 percent
lower than the average level of $429 in the month before and 7 percent lower than the $438 per ton threshold in last May.
According to the Vietnam Food Association, Vietnamese exporters have to lower the export prices to obtain more buyers. The Vietnamese rice export price is just a little higher
than the $395 per ton level in July 2012 and $387 per ton in September 2010.
Meanwhile, experts have warned that the rice price in the world would not increase in the coming months because of the
profuse supply. Thailand and India, the two big rice exporters, still have high inventories, and they are very
likely to try to clear the inventories, which would affect the world’s market.
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AFF—RICE NOT KEY
Other exports are key
BLOOMBERG NEWS 6-27-2013 (Vietnam Economic Growth Quickens as Investment Aids Exports, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0627/vietnam-s-economic-growth-quickens-as-investment-boosts-exports.html)
Exports in the first half rose 16.1 percent to $62.05 billion from the same period a year earlier, while imports climbed 17.4 percent to $63.5 billion for a trade
deficit of $1.4 billion, the Statistics Office said today.
“Most
of the growth is coming from the foreign-invested sector,” said Dominic Mellor, a Hanoi-based economist at the Asian Development
how Vietnam has been able to sustain its exports (VEEXTYOY) and, to some degree, its growth.”
Bank. “That’s
Rice Disad
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7wk Seniors ACHM 2012
AFF—CUBA NOT KEY
Cuba not key to Vietnamese exports and there’s competition now
VIET NAM NEWS 6-5-2013 (Rice exports up during first 5 months, http://vietnamnews.vn/economy/240315/rice-exports-up-during-first-5months.html)
Asian and African countries were the main markets for Viet Nam's rice, accounting for nearly 62 per cent and 22 per cent of export
volumes.
High-grade and fragrant rice varieties accounted for nearly half of the total exports, and low-grade rice for only 11 per cent, he said.
In the domestic market, the average price for long-grain paddy was VND5,289 per kilo at the end of May, and for normal paddy, VND5,043.
The association said global
rice prices are not likely to increase in the coming months since supply would remain abundant.
has been a recent tendency among major importing countries to increase domestic
Besides, according to Bay, there
production.
Thailand is carrying out marketing campaigns to boost exports, he said.
Asked about measures to expand rice exports, VFA chairman Truong Thanh Phong said: "We accept low prices during this period to consume all the paddy grown by farmers."
However, the association has fixed floor prices for two varieties of the grain.
Vietnamese prices are the world's second lowest after Myanmar.
Phong said: "Africa
and Asia markets will remain major markets for Vietnamese rice, therefore we will focus more
on promotions in these markets."
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AFF—STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS
Economic oscillation is inevitable—Vietnamese economy is structurally weak
ASSOCIATED PRESS 6-27-2013 (“Vietnam devalues currency for first time since Nov 2011 to boost exports, foreign reserves,” Times Colonist,
http://www.timescolonist.com/business/vietnam-devalues-currency-for-first-time-since-nov-2011-to-boost-exports-foreign-reserves-1.336864)
Some analysts say Vietnam's
currency is overvalued but the country's financial system is not yet developed enough for
it to trade freely without damaging the economy.
Commercial banks in Vietnam are allowed to trade the currency in a 1 per cent band around the central bank-set rate.
Vietnam's economic fortunes have waxed and waned in the past decade. Once seen as one of the most
promising emerging economies in Asia, it has more recently suffered from bouts of high inflation and slowing
growth as the Communist Party government struggles to reduce the dominance of inefficient state companies.
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AFF—ECON COLLAPSE INEV
Vietnamese economic collapse inevitable
MITTON 2010 (Roger, “Economic reform vital for teetering Vietnam,” Phnom Penh Post, Dec 13, factiva)
HERE we go again. In an attempt to staunch its haemorrhaging economy, Vietnam has imposed price controls on key
commodities from milk to petrol to steel.The move, made in the face of soaring double-digit inflation, was roundly condemned by Vietnam’s trading partners because it
violates Hanoi’s commitments to the World Trade Organisation.In short, it was an illegal act by the floundering gargoyles in the ruling Vietnam
Communist Party who have no idea how to rescue and restructure their economy.International experts have
told them bluntly that the price controls, like earlier moves to devalue the currency and impose foreign
exchange curbs, will not work. They are mere fingers in the dam.The problem is systemic. Vietnam’s top-down
command economy, controlled and micromanaged by apparachiks with a 19th-century mindset, is simply
unsustainable. God knows, there are enough examples to prove that from Albania to Cuba to the Soviet Union .
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AFF—ASEAN BAD
ASEAN is bad—creates a false sense of security and incubates conflict
DELLA-GIACOMA 2011 (Jim Della-Giacoma, Asian Program Director, International Crisis Group, “Preventive Diplomacy in Southeast Asia: Redefining the
ASEAN Way,” International Peace Institute, Dec 31, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/op-eds/2012/della-giacoma-redefining-asean-way.aspx)
Preventive diplomacy in Southeast Asia has traditionally been characterized by much talk and little collective
action. While the region is riddled with lingering conflicts, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been proud that, since its formation in 1967, no two
members have had a "large-scale" war. Prior to the recent Thai-Cambodian border conflict, the consensus based nature of the "ASEAN way"
lulled the region into a false sense of security in which interstate violent conflict was considered unthinkable.
Yet, with many disputes remaining unresolved, including conflicting claims between various countries in the
region and China, the potential for clashes remain. While these bilateral disputes are still the subject of various
ongoing bilateral negotiations, fora, workshops, dialogues, and talks, ASEAN as an institution has little active role in
resolving them.
ASEAN increases the risk of conflict—crowds out more effective solutions
DELLA-GIACOMA 2011 (Jim Della-Giacoma, Asian Program Director, International Crisis Group, “Preventive Diplomacy in Southeast Asia: Redefining the
ASEAN Way,” International Peace Institute, Dec 31, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/op-eds/2012/della-giacoma-redefining-asean-way.aspx)
In the last decade, there has been much talk about preventive diplomacy in Southeast Asia. Some
argue ASEAN is the region's most powerful
conflict-prevention mechanism. It has been praised for easing confrontation between its founding members since the 1960s and, until recently, for having
prevented conflict between its member states. This praise has been tempered by the internal strife among its members that
occasionally spills across frontiers. The region has many unresolved border disputes.The Thai -Cambodia
border dash has highlighted the challenge such disputes present, as each one has the potential to quickly turn
violent, particularly when stoked by domestic politics. The South China Sea is also an area of concern, for the
region's efforts at conflict mitigation and confidence building have seen little progress here in the last decade.
Preventive diplomacy in Southeast Asia has been defined narrowly to minimize the role for those outside the
region and to reinforce ASEAN's strong doctrine of non-interference in the internal affairs of member countries. It
marginalizes other multilateral institutions and excludes nongovernmental organizations. The ASEAN Regional Forum
(ARF) defines preventive diplomacy as any diplomatic or political action taken by states to prevent disputes or conflicts that could threaten regional peace and stability, to
prevent such disputes from escalating into armed confrontation, or to minimize the impact of such conflicts on the region. The eight key principles of preventive diplomacy are
that it (i) uses peaceful methods such as negotiation, enquiry, mediation, and conciliation; (ii) is noncoercive; (iii) is timely; (iv) requires trust and confidence; (v) involves
consultation and consensus; (vi) is voluntary; (vii) applies to direct conflict between states; and (viii) is conducted in accordance with international law.
In the past twenty years, the region has witnessed some seminal moments of diplomatic activity including the key role ASEAN played in resolving the long aftermath of
Vietnam's invasion of Cambodia and in ending Indonesia's occupation of East Timor. The UN was also a key player, particularly when these conflicts moved beyond preventive
diplomacy into the realm of complex peace operations. There
is much active peacemaking going on in Southeast Asia involving
internal conflicts. In Indonesia's Aceh and Papua, Myanmar, southern Philippines, and southern Thailand, bilateral actors and NGOs have
taken the lead. However, by the ARF's definition, NGOs can not engage in preventive diplomacy. This is a
problem and an illustration of ASEAN's noninterference principle, embedded in its Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, at work.
Rice Disad
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AFF—ASEAN DEFENSE
Thai-Cambodian conflict proves ASEAN doesn’t matter and Vietnam isn’t key
DELLA-GIACOMA 2011 (Jim Della-Giacoma, Asian Program Director, International Crisis Group, “Preventive Diplomacy in Southeast Asia: Redefining the
ASEAN Way,” International Peace Institute, Dec 31, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/op-eds/2012/della-giacoma-redefining-asean-way.aspx)
The fighting in February 2011 on the Thai-Cambodian border demanded that ASEAN's abstract talk of
preventive diplomacy be quickly converted into the real thing. While the association's intervention was hailed as groundbreaking when the
initial shooting stopped, conflict soon flared in a new area of the border less than three months later. Rather than an
institutional effort, the preventive diplomacy was ad hoc in nature and dependent on the activism of a single
country.
This case set precedents, but it also exposed the limits of the region's approach and highlighted some old challenges . First,
ASEAN still feels the need to define its role in relation to a mandate given to it by the UN Security Council and later the
International Court of Justice (ICJ). It has not been able to independently carve out space for itself as a preventivediplomacy actor. Second, while described as a group initiative, it is in reality based upon the energy and
dynamism of one member, Indonesia, the organization's chair in 2011. Third, the speed at which a more than forty-year-old
border dispute turned into a deadly exchange between "friends" was worrying. Finally, ASEAN was engaged in
managing the dispute for more than two years before the 2011 clashes, but it still could not stop them. This has
exposed some of the limits to the role the organization can play alone.
ASEAN is useless
DELLA-GIACOMA 2011 (Jim Della-Giacoma, Asian Program Director, International Crisis Group, “Preventive Diplomacy in Southeast Asia: Redefining the
ASEAN Way,” International Peace Institute, Dec 31, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/op-eds/2012/della-giacoma-redefining-asean-way.aspx)
Like many multilateral organizations, ASEAN
resembles a convoy that moves at the speed of its slowest ship. Its diversity is a
brake on concerted action, including preventive diplomacy. Within its ranks there are vibrant democracies, controlled democracies,
communist one-party states, military regimes, and feudal kingdoms. ASEAN's consensus-based decision making gives each member an
effective veto over decisions regarding the organization's agenda, interventions, reforms,and decision-making powers. Quite deliberately,
authority to make collective policy still rests within the governments or foreign ministries of each member
state. Members have no desire to cultivate an independent and activist ASEAN secretariat. Its primary task remains to
organize the grouping's more than 600 annual meetings involving working level officials on highly technical cooperation and to plan for summits with heads of state. The
ASEAN Secretary-General has a very limited role, and, to an even greater extent than his UN counterpart, he
has been regarded as more "secretary" than "general."
ASEAN can’t solve conflict
DELLA-GIACOMA 2011 (Jim Della-Giacoma, Asian Program Director, International Crisis Group, “Preventive Diplomacy in Southeast Asia: Redefining the
ASEAN Way,” International Peace Institute, Dec 31, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/op-eds/2012/della-giacoma-redefining-asean-way.aspx)
Some have argued that ASEAN's response to the recent clashes on the Thai-Cambodian border are a "victory"
for the grouping, a "historic" moment in diplomacy, and an "unprecedented case" where its members used their own mechanism to resolve a conflict among
themselves! By November 2011, at the time of writing, such euphoria looked premature as the conflict had not ended, observers
were yet to be deployed, and bilateral border negotiations had not yet restarted.
While there may now be a better-defined "ASEAN option" for regional peacemaking, there is still good reason to be circumspect. The centerpieces of ASEAN's
security infrastructure (its Treaty of Amity and Cooperation and its charter) first had to fail before they were patched up with an
unusual ad hoc intervention led by a diplomatically activist Indonesia and supported by the current ASEAN Secretary-General. The
situation might have been different had another country been in the chairmanship at the time; indeed, ASEAN was lucky
that it was Indonesia and not a less confident member in the post. A weaker chairman may have put a higher premium on non-interference
rather than on stressing the need for good offices or trying to make preventive diplomacy work. The result would have probably looked like the inaction of the previous chairs
between 2008 and 2010.
At the same time, what has occurred does have the feel of a "typical" ASEAN intervention: all process and no result.
Indonesia still has a place as a facilitator, but there is no agreement on the deployment of observers, even after these were ordered by the ICJ in a July 2011 ruling on
temporary measures in the revived Preah Vihear case. Cambodia has signed on and says it is ready to deploy them; Indonesia says they can be deployed within five days; but
Thailand has a myriad of excuses as to why this cannot be done, from offending its sovereignty to waiting for parliamentary approval for the deployment. After the Thai capital
was swept by floods in October 2011, international policymaking in that country ground to a halt. This also means that plans for ongoing bilateral negotiations have been
postponed.