RWANDA PARLIAMENTARY ACCOUNTABILITY PROGRAMME (PAP) 2012/13 – 2015/16 DFID RWANDA BUSINESS CASE May 2012 Project Intervention Summary Title: Rwanda Parliamentary Accountability Programme (PAP) What support will the United Kingdom (UK) provide? 1. The UK will provide £3.25 million over a period of four years (2012/13 – 2015/16) Why UK support is required: 2. UK support to the Rwandan Parliament, and in particular the recently-formed Public Accounts Committee, will help to underpin DFID Rwanda’s provision of general and sector budget support by ensuring greater scrutiny of government spending. Funding to Parliament takes forward UK commitments to support Rwandan initiatives to strengthen accountability both between different parts of government, and between the state and its citizens. Support to parliament will also contribute to making UK aid more effective by improving transparency and value for money. 3. Rwanda’s Parliament is a relatively new institution operating in a country that lacks a strong parliamentary history and which is still addressing the legacy of genocide. The Rwandan Parliament’s Public Accounts Committee (PAC), for example, was only created in April 2011 (by comparison, the UK’s PAC was created 155 years ago in 1857). The programme will span a vital period for parliamentary development. Members of Parliament’s upper house (the Senate) have recently completed their eight-year term and will have been completely replaced by the end of 2012. Parliamentary elections for Rwanda’s Chamber of Deputies (lower house) will take place in 2013. 4. Parliament needs to play a more effective role in overseeing the Executive, debating and passing laws, and representing the interests and concerns of Rwandan citizens. A stronger parliament will reinforce the foundations of democratic politics in Rwanda and help to consolidate and sustain Rwanda’s impressive development progress. Expected results: Impact: Government of Rwanda more accountable to Rwandan citizens Outcome: Greater Parliamentary autonomy, transparency and effectiveness in overseeing public spending and engaging Rwandan citizens 5. The programme will include targeted support to Parliament’s Public Accounts Committee and Budget Committee. This will strengthen Parliament’s contribution to ensuring an effective and open budget process (including in terms of DFID budget support). It will also help to ensure value for money and robust accountability for public spending in Rwanda. This focus will amplify the impact of the UK’s £4.5m support programme to the Office of the Auditor General which relies on the Public Accounts Committee to ensure that Government implements its recommendations. The programme will also focus on raising parliament’s public profile and making parliament more open and transparent to Rwandan citizens. Finally, the programme will support parliament’s ability to plan and deliver its own strategic objectives. Examples of specific results include: Stronger Parliamentary contribution to ensuring an open and effective budget process (improved scores in at least three sub-indicators). Increase in the proportion of media and civil society groups stating they have attended parliamentary hearings and/or accessed parliamentary reports in the past 12 months (% increase to be established according to baseline data commissioned as part of the programme). The outputs attributable to UK support are: Improved capacity of Public Accounts Committee and Budget Committee to fulfil their roles Improved parliamentary transparency and public engagement 1 Enhanced institutional capability to plan, manage, deliver and report against strategic objectives How we will determine whether expected results have been achieved: 6. At impact-level, indicators will measure: The Government of Rwanda's commitment to open and transparent governance How far Rwandan citizens agree that they have space and opportunities to influence those that make the laws of the country. The strength of legislative scrutiny of external audit reports. % of Rwandans who agree that they have 'space and opportunities to influence those that make the laws of the country'. 7. At outcome-level, indicators will measure: The strength of Parliament's oversight of the Executive branch of Government and wider Parliamentary transparency and accessibility. The strength of parliament’s contribution to ensuring an effective and open budget process. The extent to which media, civil society groups and trade unions attend parliamentary hearings and access parliamentary reports. 8. Sources used to verify progress will include: Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) assessment scores; Open Budget Index scores; Institute of Research and Dialogue for Peace (IRDP) public opinion survey data; Rwanda Reconciliation Barometer public opinion survey data; Parliament’s own reporting; survey data commissioned specifically for this programme; Reports of the Office of the Auditor General. 2 Strategic Case Context and need for a DFID intervention 9. Supporting parliament will help to underpin DFID Rwanda’s provision of general and sector budget support. DFID’s revised approach to budget support underlines that the commitment of partner countries to improving domestic accountability will play a much greater part in determining when and whether DFID provides budget support. The new approach highlights Parliament’s crucial accountability role and underlines the role of parliamentary scrutiny for strengthening public financial management and value for money. Supporting Rwanda’s Parliament will take forward DFID’s Business Plan commitment to spend an amount equivalent to five percent of Budget Support to strengthen domestic accountability institutions The Clerks of the Chamber of Deputies and of the Senate have written a joint letter to DFID requesting UK support.1 10. Supporting parliament directly addresses recommendations in DFID’s 2011 Fiduciary Risk Assessment (FRA) of general budget support as well as recommendations from 2011 sector FRAs focused on the education and health sectors.2 More specifically, the FRAs identify support to the PAC and Budget Committee as mitigation measures to reduce fiduciary risk associated with General and Sector budget support. 11. Support to parliament is part of DFID Rwanda’s Operational Plan and closely complements other areas of DFID’s programme: Support to parliament forms part of the VFM rationale and accountability focus of DFID Rwanda’s country programme.3 It also complements DFID’s funding of the Office of the Auditor General and is part of delivering ‘effective parliamentary oversight of government finances’ in DFID Rwanda’s Results Framework.4 The programme also complements DFID Rwanda’s support to citizen and civil society scrutiny of government and their engagement in evidence-based policy dialogue and advocacy.5 12. The Rwandan Parliament has a mandate to improve accountability both between different parts of government, and between the state and its citizens. In both these areas, it has the potential to strengthen the accountability provisions that Rwanda needs to reinforce the legitimacy of its political system and to consolidate and sustain development progress. DFID-Rwanda’s Operational Plan notes the potential risks associated with overly-centralised power and the need to encourage greater state accountability to citizens and more open and inclusive politics.6 Similarly, the 2011 World Development Report emphasises that building legitimate institutions and public confidence in political systems is fundamental to breaking cycles of conflict and violence.7 The programme will reinforce processes of state-building and peace-building and is consistent with efforts to help Rwanda to transcend the legacy of conflict and fragility. 13. Background: Rwanda’s Parliament is a young institution operating in a complex governance environment in a country recovering from genocide and without a strong parliamentary history to draw on. Prior to 2003, and following the genocide of 1994, Rwanda was governed through transitional arrangements under which a Transitional National Assembly (parliament) played a marginal role. Under the 2003 Constitution however, Parliament was 1 Parliament financing request received by DFID-Rwanda Head of Office, 11 January 2011. Donor Fiduciary Risk Assessment of General Budget Support in Rwanda, prepared by REPIM on behalf of DFID Rwanda, Draft Report, July 2011, p. 47. Also: Rwanda 2011 Education FRA Analysis, p.35 and Rwanda 2011 Health FRA Analysis, p. 44. 3 DFID-Rwanda Operational Plan 2011-2015, p.5. 4 DFID-Rwanda Results Framework, Governance and Security Pillar. 5 Specifically, the programme complements DFID’s ‘Support to Civil Society Capacity Building and Engagement in Public Policy Information, Monitoring and Advocacy’ (PPIMA). 6 DFID Operational Plan 2011-15: The UK’s Development Programme in Rwanda, February 2011. 7 World Development Report 2011, Conflict Security and Development, Overview, The World Bank, Washington D.C. 2 3 established as one of the three arms of government and acquired new powers and structures. This included a shift from appointed to largely elected MPs8; a move to a bicameral parliamentary system (a Chamber of Deputies and a Senate); a large increase in the number of MPs, particularly women; and legislative autonomy for parliament. 14. Parliament and Rwanda’s political system: The Constitution prioritises national unity and consensus-building over competitive, pluralistic politics. This is partly due to fears that political competition may slow efforts to drive through a transformational development agenda. There are also concerns that political competition could encourage renewed divisions in Rwandan society and potentially undermine Rwanda’s political settlement and reconciliation process. Under this model, the Rwandan Patriotic Front is the preeminent party. Registered political parties work collaboratively and their policy agendas are broadly aligned around the national development vision driven by the President and the Rwandan Patriotic Front. In this context, parliament is yet to fully establish a strong and independent ‘watchdog’ role over the executive and MPs are expected to demonstrate strong and consistent commitment to government positions and policy. 15. Rwanda has prioritised decentralisation in order to bring government closer to citizens and to strengthen voice and accountability.9 Significant progress has been made in this area but recent public opinion survey data suggests that further efforts are needed in order to move beyond a centralist political culture – including in terms of engagement between MPs and citizens.10 16. Rather than being directly elected and rooted in local constituencies, MPs (Deputies) are chosen by political parties and are national representatives who, following elections, are affiliated with districts.11 Rather than being directly elected by the population, Members of the Senate are selected by a mixture of indirect elections (through Provincial and Sectoral Councils and other channels) and by Presidential appointment. Direct interaction between MPs and citizens is limited, although some measures have been put in place to address this.12 One recent assessment, noted that there was a ‘disconnection between the elected and the elector’.13 17. Parliament’s potential for playing a prominent and assertive part in Rwandan politics is also related to the wider political context – notably the challenges and constraints faced by opposition political parties, media and civil society.14 There is limited public and media awareness, expectation and engagement vis-a-vis MPs and parliament overall. Parliament is further constrained by limited financial and administrative autonomy – for example in relation to revenue-raising and determining staffing structures and salaries.15 Rwanda’s parliamentary 8 Fifty-three out of the 80 MPs in the Chamber of Deputies are directly elected. Joint Governance Assessment, 2008, p. 62 10 Institute of Research and Dialogue for Peace (IRDP), p.41, 70, 72. 11 In parliamentary elections, Rwandans vote for parties rather than directly for individual MPs. The number of MPs per party depends on the proportion of the vote for that party. IRDP states that Rwanda’s ‘closed list’ system for electing Deputies means that parliamentarians feel ‘more accountable to the individual and the political force which has the ability to put him on the list rather than to the citizen’ (IRDP, Citizen’s Participation for Democracy in Rwanda, September 2010, draft, p.69). 12 For example, Parliament has decided that every last Saturday, at least 20 members of parliament should visit the districts to participate in community work (umuganda) and to listen to citizens’ concerns (IRDP: p. 53). 13 IRDP: p.69. 14 JGA, p.18. 15 Best practice suggests that to assure parliamentary independence and autonomy, parliaments should be able to determine their own budgets (rather than relying on the Executive) and have the power to determine their own staff structures and terms of employment (Towards the Development of International Standards for Democratic Legislatures, National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, 2007). 9 4 budget per capita is half that of Uganda and over a third lower than Kenya’s.16 It is 16.5% lower than the African average (adjusted for purchasing power parity).17 18. Progress and opportunities: Such challenges suggest that any increases in Parliament’s leverage are likely to be gradual over time. Nonetheless, there are opportunities for achieving important short term gains whilst enabling longer- term institutional development and improved transparency and openness. There are particular opportunities related to the establishment of a Public Accounts Committee. There is strong political commitment in Rwanda to effective and pro-poor public financial management (e.g. allocating resources in line with poverty reduction priorities). Parliament’s role in scrutinising public spending is well-aligned with this agenda. The recent creation of the PAC, together with wider reforms to standing committees, presents clear opportunities for strengthening Parliament’s oversight function. As demonstrated during the PAC’s scrutiny of the 2009-10 Audit Report, the PAC’s creation is especially significant in terms of parliament’s ability to work with the Office of the Auditor General to demand accountability and value for money. 19. More broadly, Parliament has made progress in establishing the necessary institutional systems and infrastructure. Its standing committees have begun to call Ministers to account and to subject them to robust questioning. Both parliamentarians and parliamentary staff demonstrate strong drive to acquire new skills and competencies. The fact that Rwanda has the highest percentage of female parliamentarians in the world (at 56%) represents opportunities in terms of Parliament’s role in advancing gender equality. In March 2012, Parliament launched a radio station (101.5 FM with 80% national coverage) to inform the population of developments and debates at Parliament and to receive direct audience feedback.18 20. Parliament has produced a new Strategic Plan for 2010-2014, which specifies key areas to strengthen if it is to play a greater role in shaping legislation, channelling citizens’ concerns and holding Government to account. The Strategic Plan includes areas such as: Strengthening provisions and opportunities for parliamentary oversight of government action. Improving parliamentarians’ direct and indirect contact with the population, the private sector, civil society, the media and trade unions. Strengthening the effectiveness of parliamentary services and systems. Evidence and analysis demonstrating the need for intervention 21. The evidence base and metrics for parliamentary performance and impact are underdeveloped and robust data for Rwanda are particularly scarce. Available evidence and analysis is set out below: 22. Parliament, Rwandan citizens and civil society Nearly two thirds of Rwandans say that they have never been consulted by Deputies on the adoption of new laws and that, outside of election campaigns, Deputies rarely engage with local communities.19 16 Global Parliamentary Report, Inter-Parliamentary Union and UNDP, 2012, excel data annex. For Africa, the average parliamentary budget per capita is $3.71 million. For Rwanda it is $3.1 million. Global Parliamentary Report, Inter-Parliamentary Union and UNDP, 2012, p.p. 98-100. As a 17 percentage of the state budget, the budget of the Rwandan Parliament is very slightly above the African average but slightly below the average for least developed countries (For Africa, the average is 0.77% of the state budget; for LDCs it is 0.89%; for Rwanda it is 0.82%. Global Parliamentary Report, Inter-Parliamentary Union and UNDP, 2012, p.p. 98-100. 18 The creation of this radio station was funded by UNDP and DFID under the PSGG programme. 19 IRDP, p.52. 5 A third of Rwandan citizens disagree that they have ‘space and opportunities to influence those that make the laws of the country’.20 Parliamentary engagement with civil society is limited. Constructive cooperation with one NGO network (CLADHO21) in relation to budget scrutiny stands out as a rare example to be built upon. 23. Standing Committees and parliamentary oversight There are no specialist staff attached to standing committees to equip them with the necessary technical expertise to perform effectively. Each Committee’s rapporteur has to serve the function of administrator, logistical officer, report writer, procedural adviser and subject-specialist.22 Addressing these capacity constraints represents ‘an important opportunity to enhance the effectiveness of parliamentary committees and the accountability that they bring’.23 Committees have very limited resources to undertake field visits or detailed research on particular aspects of policy and implementation.24 DFID’s 2011 Fiduciary Risk Assessment of Parliament concluded that the Budget Committee had ‘insufficient technical support to discharge its role effectively’ and further recommended that the PAC receive equivalent support.25 The national-level FRA also underlined the need to support the Budget Committee and the PAC.26 24. Parliamentary services and institutional capacity Parliament is understaffed. There is one member of parliamentary staff per parliamentarian. This is significantly below the African average of 1.62 staff per parliamentarian. For Rwanda’s lower house (the Chamber of Deputies), the ratio of staff to MPs is less than one (0.77).27 Parliament has created a Research Unit with six researchers but the unit is not yet able to meet parliamentarians’ needs. Parliament’s planning unit and M&E function is also underdeveloped. In many cases, the person responsible for management functions in areas such as human resources and procurement is also the sole person for executing these functions.28 Parliamentary elections will take place in 2013. High levels of MP turn-over at elections means a heavy training and induction workload for Parliamentary staff.29 In the Upper House, Senators serve one non-renewable term of eight years and all 26 Senators will have been replaced by the end of 2012. Senior management and leadership capacity need to be reinforced in order to provide greater strategic direction and to focus on improving institutional performance.30 20 Rwanda Reconciliation Barometer, National Unity and Reconciliation Commission, 2010, p.38. From these data, the NURC concludes that ‘boosting citizen participation in decision-making’ is an urgent priority (p.40). Joint Governance Assessments (2008 and 2010) also underline the need to raise the population’s understanding and awareness of the role parliament plays in national governance (JGA, 2010: p.45). At the same time, citizen trust in parliament appears to be high: 90% of Rwandan respondents expressed either ‘a great deal’ or ‘quite a lot’ of trust in parliament (RRB: p.35), although the authors of the survey report note the challenges of obtaining robust data on such issues. 21 Collectif des Ligues et Association de Defense des Droits de l’ Homme 22 ‘Revised Project Plan’, Parliamentary Centre, unpublished, 2009. 23 Joint Governance Assessment (JGA), 2008, p.40-41. The JGA reports that the Committee on Budget and National Patrimony has operated ‘with only seven Deputies and one supporting consultant charged with scrutinising the budgets of all public agencies, checking budgetary performance, responding to the Auditor General’s report and other tasks essential to the oversight of public finances.’ 24 JGA, p.40-41. 25 Fiduciary Risk Assessment of the Parliament of Rwanda, conducted on behalf of DFID, 2011, p. 11. 26 Donor Fiduciary Risk Assessment of General Budget Support in Rwanda, prepared by REPIM on behalf of DFID Rwanda, Draft Report, July p. 47. 27 Global Parliamentary Report, Inter-Parliamentary Union and UNDP, 2012, excel data annex. 28 ‘Revised Project Plan’, Parliamentary Centre, unpublished, 2009, p.16. 29 Approximately 65% of MPs were replaced following 2008 parliamentary elections. 30‘Revised Project Plan’, Parliamentary Centre, unpublished, 2009. 6 Box 1: International indicators and scores for Parliament’s effectiveness in specific areas Open Budget Index scores: Overall rating of Parliament’s contribution to ensuring an effective and open budget process: 53/10031 Do legislative committees that hold public hearings release reports to the public on these hearings? D (‘no, the committees do not release reports or do not hold public hearings) 32 Scores from the most recent Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability assessment:33 Legislative scrutiny of the annual budget law: (i) Scope of the legislature’s scrutiny: B Legislative scrutiny of external audit report: (i) Timeliness of examination of audit reports by the legislature: B (ii) Extent of hearings on key findings undertaken by the legislature: B (iii) Issuance of recommended actions by the legislature and implementation by the executive: B 25. Previous UK support and other donors: The programme will succeed previous UK support to parliament under the 2007-2011 ‘Programme to Support Good Governance, managed by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)’.34 Overall, donor support to Rwanda’s parliament remains modest and ad hoc. UNDP is providing Parliament with £210,000 as part of a ‘bridging project’ between the support that ended in 2011 and a five-year programme to commence in 2013. It is not clear at this stage whether the five-year programme will include support to parliament. The European Union (EU) is providing £420,000 over five years (2011/12 – 2015/16) focused on support to oversight committees and parliamentary outreach. 26. The UK’s support will add significant value beyond what other donors are already doing. Under EU and UNDP programmes, Parliament constitutes one small component of broad programmes that are supporting numerous institutions. Where other donors have provided support, this has been very small-scale and activity based (e.g. support by the United States International Development Agency (USAID) to strengthen legislative drafting skills in Parliament). A well-resourced, Parliament-specific DFID programme therefore represents a level of commitment and investment in parliament that is currently absent and which will significantly raise the potential for achieving an overall institutional impact that goes beyond output-level results. The modality of DFID’s support – programme funding – is also distinct from existing donor approaches and will help to strengthen Parliament’s own systems and procedures as well as reducing transaction costs and increasing Parliamentary ownership. 27. Donor coordination: Coordination between DFID and UNDP will be facilitated partly by sharing a single Programme Coordinator, based in Parliament (see Management Case below). DFID has initiated consultations and discussions with other parliamentary donors to ensure that UK support will complement, and be coordinated with support from other donors. It is the intention of DFID and of Parliament that in future such meetings will be Chaired and led by Parliament itself. DFID has not suggested further coordination arrangements at present as it is anticipated that the creation of a Single Project Implementation Unit (see paragraph 77 below) will perform this function. 28. Consequences of not intervening: 31 The Open Budget Survey 2010, data tables, International Budget Partnership, p.22. International Budget Partnership, Open Budget Questionnaire, Rwanda, September 2009, p. 82 33 PEFA 2010, p. 27. 34 Parliament was one of seven beneficiary institutions and received £1m. One of the lessons learned for future support was focus on a smaller number of beneficiary institutions and to focus more closely on developing appropriate management arrangements for support. 32 7 Parliament is a cornerstone institution for domestic accountability. By not intervening, DFID would fail to take forward the Departmental Business Plan commitment to supporting accountability institutions in contexts where we provide budget support. This would also miss an opportunity to reduce fiduciary risk associated with UK provision of general and sector budget support to the Government of Rwanda. Not supporting Rwanda’s new PAC would mean missing a key and timely opportunity to strengthen public financial accountability. The right kind of support, during what is likely to be a formative period, could have a significant impact on the PAC’s trajectory and could help to lay strong foundations for future years. An ineffective PAC would potentially increase the fiduciary risk of UK budget support and miss opportunities to improve the overall economy, efficiency and effectiveness of public spending in Rwanda. DFID is providing support to the Office of the Auditor General (OAG). Given the mutual dependence between the OAG and the PAC, not intervening would mean missing opportunities to amplify the impact and value for money of UK support to the OAG. 29. Contribution to poverty reduction: Rwanda’s development progress is impressive but it is also fragile. Recent research commissioned by the World Bank underlines that ‘peace is most likely to endure if Rwanda’s political space is gradually opened up to allow formal state institutions to establish greater autonomy from the current regime’.35 Strengthening the role of Parliament is therefore highly relevant to this process. Reinforcing Parliament’s ability to robustly oversee how public funds are managed and spent will contribute positively to the value for money of public spending – thereby potentially channelling increased resources towards achieving poverty reduction results (see ‘Theory of Change’ at paragraph 39 for further details). 30. Links to HMG/DFID strategic priorities: Structural Reform Priority 2 (‘Make British aid more effective by improving transparency and value for money’). Commitment that up to 5% of budget support should go to accountability institutions (DFID Business Plan 2012-15). Ministerial emphasis on Empowerment and Accountability: ‘Access to information enables citizens to engage meaningfully with accountability mechanisms’. Renewed emphasis on strengthening domestic accountability as a partnership principle for providing budget support.36 Appraisal Case Feasible options that address the need set out in the Strategic case: 31. Option 1: Targeted Accountability Focus Outputs: 1. Improved capacity of Public Accounts Committee and Budget Committee to fulfil their roles 2. Improved parliamentary transparency and public engagement 3. Enhanced institutional capability to plan, manage, deliver and report against strategic objectives 32. Option 2: Cross-cutting Support Outputs: 1. Administrative and technical support services to all Select Committees expanded. 2. Parliamentary ability to initiate and draft legislation improved. 3. Improved parliamentary transparency and public engagement 4. Improved engagement between Rwandan MPs and citizens Rwanda’s Exit Pathway from Violence: A Strategic Assessment, Omar McDoom, World Development Report 2011 background case study, 2011, World Bank, p.3. 36 Implementing DFID’s strengthened approach to budget support: Technical Note, DFID, July 2011. 35 8 5. Institutional capability to plan, monitor and evaluate achievement of strategic objectives enhanced. 6. Review and reform of core institutional structures, systems, processes and management arrangements. Option 3: Targeted Accountability Focus ++ 33. As a variation of Option 1, this option would include the same outputs as Option 1 but with scope for future expansion of support to additional Select Committees besides the PAC and Budget Committee. Annual Reviews will specifically consider whether a shift towards a broader approach will represent good value for money (based on a deeper understanding of potential opportunities and risks). 34 .Distinguishing features of the two main options (options 1 and 2): The options differ in terms of the type and number of outputs that will enable the achievement of the purpose. Option 1 places particular emphasis on public financial accountability as part of its support to parliamentary oversight. Option 2 is broader in scope in that it includes support to all 13 of Parliament’s select committees (nine in the Chamber of Deputies and 4 in the Senate) and to the legislative role of parliament. Unlike Option 1, it includes reform of core institutional systems and processes (for example, human resources, procurement, the roles of senior management). It also includes an output to improve engagement between Rwandan MPs and citizens. Both main options include support directed at improving parliamentary outreach/communications and at improving parliament’s ability to plan and deliver strategic objectives. 35. As a variation on Option 1, Option 3 includes the same components but allows a degree of flexibility for expansion should it become clear that there are significant opportunities for progress with wider institutional strengthening. 36. Assessing the feasibility of the options Criteria for assessing feasibility: Option takes full consideration of the political context surrounding parliament and the internal institutional environment shaping the behaviour of parliamentarians and parliamentary officials. Option takes as its departure point the existing level of institutional capacity in Parliament and the scope for building this capacity further. Option addresses key accountability challenges in Rwanda. Implementation of the Option is ‘manageable’ in terms of breadth and maximises value for money (VFM). Option builds the trust and carries the support of Parliament’s senior management. 37. Comparing Option 1 and Option 2: Option 2 has more outputs and is more ambitious in that it includes core institutional reform of Parliament. However, it is currently not clear whether the political and institutional context is right for a broader and more ambitious approach. Option 2 also carries the risk of diluting programme impact by seeking to address a large number of new areas simultaneously - rather than prioritising a select number of areas and focusing on delivering them. Parliament has limited institutional and administrative capacity to absorb and administer reform on several concurrent fronts. A wide-ranging programme would therefore be poorly suited to the capacity criterion set out above. Option 2 also has the drawback of being significantly more demanding in terms of DFID inputs and transaction costs – which will already be significant given that the programme is entirely new. 38. In contrast, Option 1 is focused on strengthening the PAC and Budget Committee – both of which are especially well positioned to further strengthen accountability and value for money public spending in Rwanda (including in relation to UK budget support). Parliament’s letter to DFID identified this area specifically as one where support would be welcome. Option 1 allows for DFID to build relationships with parliament and to deliver results around a focused and shared agenda. Unlike Option 2, Option 1 also carries less of a risk of overloading existing Parliamentary capacity. Instead, Option 1 allows for the programme to grow and broaden in 9 step with improvements to Parliamentary capacity (including the capacity built through the programme). Option 1 therefore performs better than Option 2 against the above feasibility criteria. 39. Comparing Option 1 and Option 3: An advantage of Option 3 over Option 1 is that a decision on whether to broaden the programme focus could be taken once the programme has established a track record and built further trust with Parliament (e.g. following first annual review). This approach has downsides in terms of creating some uncertainty over final programme budget and logframe. But this disadvantage is potentially outweighed by the fact that, by focusing on the PAC and Budget Committee to the exclusion of other Select Committees, Option 1 may miss opportunities to advance parliamentary scrutiny and accountability in relation to key areas of policy-making. Pursuing Option 3 will enable a decision about adopting a broader approach to be informed by a better understanding of the potential opportunities and risks, taking into consideration Parliament’s institutional environment and the broader governance context. On this basis, Option 3 is the preferred Option and the other two should be discounted. Theory of Change 40. Summary: Parliaments operate at the meeting point of accountability relationships between different branches of government (the Executive and the Legislature) on the one hand and between citizens and the political leaders on the other. The overarching theory of change for the programme is that UK funding will contribute to parliament’s ability to play its oversight and accountability roles more openly and effectively. Taken together, programme outputs will enable parliament to be more autonomous, effective and transparent in overseeing public spending and engaging with Rwandan citizens (outcome). If Parliament is stronger and more open in demanding and securing accountability for public spending and if parliament encourages and delivers engagement with the public and other stakeholders, then, overall, this will help to achieve the programme’s impact of making the Executive branch of Government more accountable to parliament and also more accountable to Rwandan citizens. Box 2: Unpacking the theory of change in terms of programme outputs Output 1: Improved capacity of Public Accounts Committee and Budget Committee to fulfil their roles: The programme is focussed on two parliamentary committees in particular: The Budget Committee and the Public Accounts Committee.37 The Budget Committee is vital because the budget process is one of the most regular, predictable and systematic ways of scrutinising government conduct and for reflecting and implementing policy priorities.38 The Public Accounts Committee also has particular significance because it assists in the process of public audit (through its relationship with the Office of the Auditor General) at the same time as helping to ensure that parliament holds government account on behalf of the electorate for its use of public money.39 Improving the technical and administrative capacity of the PAC (both in terms of its members and the Committee’s support services) will enable it to ensure that the findings it receives from the Office of the Auditor General are converted into concrete improvements in the value for money of public spending. The PAC will do this by questioning accounting officers, issuing recommendations and following up on whether the Government has implemented these recommendations. Similarly, strengthening the Budget Committee (both in terms of its members and the Committee’s support services) will enable it to scrutinise the budget to ensure that revenue and spending measures are fiscally sound and match the needs of the population with available resources.40 37 Both committees can serve as an important entry point for civil society groups, think tanks and academics to engage with parliament – including by providing oral and written evidence. 38 Wehner, Joachim, cited in Strengthening Parliaments in Africa: Improving Support, Africa All Party Parliamentary Group, UK Parliament, 2008, p. 64. 39 Enhancing Accountability for the use of Public Sector Resources, ODI, 2008 40 Back from the Sidelines? Redefining the contribution of legislatures to the budget cycle, World Bank Institute, 2004. 10 Output 2: Improved parliamentary transparency and public engagement Independent assessments such as the Open Budget index currently score parliament poorly in terms of enabling public engagement and making information publicly available. By strengthening parliamentary communication, outreach and availability of information, the programme will improve the visibility of parliament and help demonstrate the relevance of its role and its work to the Rwandan media, NGOs, civil society groups, trade unions and members of the public. In doing so, the programme will create entry points for greater public engagement, influencing and accountability. Output 3: Enhanced institutional capability to plan, manage, deliver and report against strategic objectives Parliament’s experience with its previous Strategic Plan (2006 – 2010) underlined that parliament’s institutional ability to manage for results needed to be strengthened. 41 Parliament’s 2010-2015 Strategic Plan offers a broad framework for parliamentary development but assistance is needed to ensure that the necessary systems, processes and forums are in place to ensure that parliament can monitor and deliver against its institutional priorities. 41. The assumptions underpinning the above theory of change are fully elaborated in the programme logframe. Critical assumptions include: i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii. Overall political space for parliament and MPs to play an active role in Rwanda’s political system does not deteriorate. The 2013 parliamentary elections do not leave Parliament compromised. GoR (remains) responsive to PAC/Parliamentary demands for follow-up on audit recommendations. Institutional leadership and management within Parliament do not deteriorate. The Office of the Auditor General provides PAC with increasingly robust and userfocussed information. DFID is able to maintain and further develop strong and constructive dialogue and working relations with Parliament. No significant deterioration in levels of demand, capacity and space for civil society, the media and trade unions to engage more closely with parliament and to draw on parliamentary findings. 42. The “do nothing” counterfactual: Previous DFID support to parliament has ended so the ‘do nothing’ counterfactual is to have no DFID funding relationship with parliament. This would reduce the impact of DFID’s programme of support to the OAG – given that the PAC provides much of the OAGs political weight and backing. Doing nothing would also miss an opportunity to strengthen a vital aspect of accountability in Rwanda at a critical phase in the development of Rwanda’s political system and of Rwanda’s Parliament specifically (particularly given parliamentary elections in 2013). DFID consultations with other donors have confirmed that DFID funding to parliament would not be displacing potential funding from other donors. Parliament’s own budget is almost entirely consumed by recurrent costs and there is a gap with respect to programmes to strengthen and reform parliament.42 Assessing the strength of the evidence base for each feasible option Evidence rating for Option 3: Limited 43. Evidence from previous interventions in Rwanda: There is limited evidence of impact from previous support to Rwanda’s Parliament. Donors have not invested significant resources in parliamentary support and, partly as a result, have placed less emphasis on demonstrating 41 Parliament of Rwanda, Strategic Plan, 2010-2015, p. 11 The Parliamentary Clerks have asked DFID to assist with designing mechanisms so that Parliament can better coordinate multiple small donor programmes and thereby reduce transaction costs on alreadystretched institutional capacity. Were DFID to ‘do nothing’ this would therefore also prevent potential gains in terms of donor coordination. 42 11 clear and quantified results than for larger areas of spend. Most donor support has been shortterm project support with activity-level results reporting (e.g. number of workshops held etc.). Results from USAID support43 USAID’s Rwanda Parliament Support Project (Sept 2003-Dec 2004) is one of the few programmes that sets out quantified results achieved. Attribution of these results to USAID’s project is not explored in detail but these results include: Fifty per cent increase in the number of plenary sessions devoted to executive oversight/questioning of Ministers. Over twenty per cent increase in Parliament’s operating budget and over 10% increase in its operating budget as a percentage of total GoR budget. Fifty per cent increase in the amount of public information available on Parliament’s website. 44. Wider evidence: The lack of systematic evidence on the outcomes and impacts of parliamentary strengthening in Rwanda is consistent with the broader dearth of evidence on the effectiveness of parliamentary assistance.44 Whilst there is an established literature on democratisation processes, there has been little rigorous study of democracy assistance in its own right, and even less that is specifically focussed on parliamentary strengthening work.45 45. Lessons learned from previous UK support in Rwanda: Jointly with UNDP, DFID provided support to parliament through a 2007-2011 ‘Programme of Support to Good Governance’. DFID provided £1m towards the £2m total for the programme’s parliamentary component. The programme was managed by UNDP and ended in June 2011. The Project Completion Report identified various activities that helped to strengthen parliament.46 At the same time, shortcomings with the programme’s monitoring and evaluation (M+E) framework and insufficient attention to establishing clear and timely baseline data made it difficult to confidently specify quantified results. 46. What is the likely impact (positive and negative) on climate change and environment for each feasible option? Option Climate change and environment risks Climate change and environment and impacts, Category (A, B, C, D) opportunities, Category (A, B, C, D) 1 C (low) C (low) 47. Impact on Climate Change and the Environment: An independent ‘climate change screening’ of DFID-R’s portfolio (as set out in the Bilateral Aid Review offer) concluded that 43 Rwanda Parliament Support Project, Final Report submitted to USAID by ARD Inc., March 2005. pp.28-31. 44 See, for example, Support to Legislatures, NORAD Evaluation Department Synthesis Study, Report 2/2010 p.vi, p.9. Also: Strengthening Parliaments in Africa: Improving Support, 2008, Africa All Party Parliamentary Group, UK Parliament; Approaches to Parliamentary Strengthening: A Review of Sida’s Support to Parliaments, 2005, Sida Evaluation 05/27; Parliamentary strengthening in developing countries, 2007, Overseas Development Institute. One of the few quantitative studies in existence is an independent cross-national assessment covering 165 countries (see, Effects of US foreign assistance on democracy building: Results of a cross-national quantitative study, USAID, Vanderbilt University and University of Pittsburg, 2006). The study did not disaggregate the US assistance in terms of parliamentary support specifically and instead focussed on broader pillars of US democracy support. The study concluded that: spending on the promotion of democracy, in the period 1990-2003 helped to increase democracy above the levels that would have been achieved based on all other factors that could reasonably be expected to have mattered (ibid, p.26). There does not yet exist a critical mass of similar findings that would enable greater confidence regarding causal relationships and our ability to directly attribute outcomes to development assistance. 45 See for example: Improving Democracy Assistance: Building Knowledge through Evaluations and Research. Committee on Evaluation of USAID Democracy Assistance Programs, National Research Council, 2008, p.26. 46 These activities include: An oversight mission by MPs, focusing on the Vision 2020 Umurenge Programme; establishment of a Research Unit which has helped strengthen analytical capacity in parliament; developing a legislative drafting manual to guide parliamentarians and support staff; preparation of the Parliament Strategic Plan 2006-10, and more recently, the 2010-15 Strategic Plan. 12 climate and environment-related opportunities and risks for the governance and security pillar were very limited.47 However, support to parliament could bring indirect environmental and climate change benefits, for example by strengthening overall provisions for oversight of the Executive. What are the costs and benefits of each feasible option? 48. Costs: The direct cost of the programme is assumed to be the total programme budget – i.e. £ 3.25m 2012/13 – 2015/16. 49. Direct benefits: Direct benefits will result from the PAC’s recommendations and its engagement with the Executive to ensure follow up on the audit findings of the Office of the Auditor General. It is expected that the PAC will increase the extent to which the Executive takes action to address financial leakages and sub-optimal use of public resources. This includes steps to address fraud, wasteful expenditure and expenditure deemed not compliant with public procurement laws. It also includes steps to improve value for money based on the findings of OAG performance/value for money audits. 50. Indirect benefits: The indirect benefits are potentially much larger. Through greater scrutiny of public expenditure decisions and greater pressure to ensure follow-up, it is reasonable to expect the indirect benefits to include a more efficient use of scarce financial resources. There may also be improved fiscal discipline resulting from the improved public financial management to which the PAC and Budget Committee will contribute. 51. Further indirect benefits relate to strengthening citizens’ ability to hold government to account and to strengthening the legitimacy of Rwanda’s political system. Evidence from the World Bank’s 2011 World Development Report suggests that in order to transition away from cycles of violence and make development progress, fragile states need to build confidence between the states and society and establish legitimate institutions that are accountable to citizens.48 Given that Parliament is one of the three arms of government in Rwanda, popular perceptions of Rwanda’s Parliament are likely to shape wider attitudes towards the legitimacy of Rwanda’s political system. Assisting Rwanda’s Parliament to make greater progress in meeting its mandate will therefore contribute positively towards state legitimacy in the eyes of Rwandan people, and therefore to addressing the legacy of conflict and fragility. These indirect benefits are difficult to quantify and have not been factored into the cost-benefit analysis below. 52. Calculating direct benefits: The most readily quantifiable direct benefits will result from the programme’s support to the PAC. Improved PAC effectiveness will increase follow up to tackle fraud, wasteful expenditure and expenditure not compliant with public procurement rules. To arrive at an estimate of the direct benefits, it was assumed that DFID’s funding to the PAC would increase by 15% the size of the direct benefits resulting from DFID’s support to the Office of the Auditor General.49 The assumption is reasonable given that the role of the PAC is partly 47 Climate Change Screening of DFID Rwanda’s Portfolio, Harewell International Ltd and the Global Climate Adaptation Partnership, 2010, pp. 38-39. 48 World Development Report 2011, Conflict Security and Development, Overview, The World Bank, Washington D.C. The report asserts that the more citizens perceive the political system and institutions as fair and representative and contributing to their own prosperity, welfare and security, the more likely they will be to support these institutions and to contribute positively to national development and peace. 49 To estimate the direct benefits of DFID’s OAG funding, reported levels of fraud, wasteful expenditure, and expenditure not compliant with public procurement rules from the most recent four audit reports were collated to derive the average value of such incidences per audit (best thought of as the ‘output per audit’). This output per audit was then used to estimate the marginal benefit of this intervention based on the difference between the number of audits with and without UK support. Furthermore, the benefits attributed to DFID’s OAG support are in proportion to DFID’s share of total funding of OAG and are adjusted for the fact that the OAG reports that approximately half of its recommendations are acted upon. 13 to ensure that potential benefits from OAG findings translate into concrete follow up actions by the Executive branch of Government.50 53. This is a conservative approach to calculating the benefits of DFID’s support to parliament because it assesses whether the entirety of the programme costs can be justified by the benefits resulting from only one of the programme outputs: support to the PAC. The approach is also likely to underestimate benefits because it considers the ‘PAC multiplier effect’ only in relation to the benefits attributable to DFID’s OAG support rather the multiplier effect on all of the benefits associated with the work of the OAG. 54. Calculating indirect benefits: Indirect benefits relate to improved efficiency of public expenditure and improved fiscal discipline. For the economic appraisal of DFID support to the OAG, it was estimated that improving the capacity of the OAG would enable financial resources to be better allocated to areas that improve social well-being. The value of this improved allocation of scarce resources was estimated to be equivalent to 1% of public expenditure for the 10th year of a 10-year period.51 The second approach used to calculate the indirect benefits of OAG support assumed that greater accountability for spending decisions would induce the GoR to better match expenditure with fiscal revenues resulting in a reduction of the primary fiscal deficit by 1% (also realised at the end of year 10). 55. In line with our assumption that support to the PAC will amplify by 15% the benefits of the OAG support programme, the indirect benefits for both improved efficiency of public expenditure and improved fiscal deficit are increased from 1% to 1.15% 56. Cost benefit analysis52. Calculations based on the above approach and assumptions produce discounted benefits of £5.4m and discounted costs of £2.3m. This results in a positive Net Present Value (NPV) of £3.1m. In other words, once the programme costs and benefits are adjusted to enable comparison over time, the benefits minus the costs still produces a positive value of £3.1m. This creates a cost-benefit ratio of 2.4. I.e. every £1 that DFID spends on the programme will deliver £2.40 of benefits. 57. Sensitivity tests: Sensitivity analysis was conducted whereby the parameters of the costbenefit analysis were varied to see how these variations affected the benefit-cost ratio. These sensitivity tests included varying the extent to which the PAC support would amplify the benefits of DFID’s OAG support programme (i.e. the % of the increase in benefits that the PAC programme would deliver over and above the benefits of the OAG support programme). 58. The sensitivity tests applied and the consequent variations in benefit-cost ratios are included in the table below. 50 In making the original calculations of direct benefits from DFID funding to the OAG, it was assumed that fraud, wasteful and non-compliant expenditure are “costs” to society of equal value, rather than economic transfers, hence any reduction results in an increase in economic well-being. In the “donothing” scenario for the OAG appraisal, the capacity of the OAG is assumed to reduce due to the ending of Dutch-Swedish donor support, resulting in 10% fewer audits compared to levels currently realised. A further assumption in calculating the additional benefit of DFID support to the PAC is that the working relationship between the PAC and the OAG is sufficiently strong and strategic to enable benefits to be realised. An exchange rate of GBP1 : RwF 900 has been assumed, with a three percent depreciation in the value of the Rwandan Franc each year. 51 This 1% figure is in line with DFID draft guidance on undertaking Cost-Benefit Analysis of PFM-related projects. See: ‘Draft interim guidance on undertaking Cost-Benefit Analysis of Public Financial Management Projects’, DFID internal document (Quest no 3048693 as above). 52 A 10-year appraisal period and a 10% discount rate were adopted. 14 Sensitivity assumption Base case, assuming that PAC support produces a 15% improvement on OAG programme benefits Improvement of 12% Improvement of 8% “Breakeven” point : 6.3% Remove “ reduction in fiscal deficit” from the benefit streams of the base case scenario “Breakeven” point when “reduction in fiscal deficit” not included into benefit streams: 7.5% 12% discount rate under base case scenario 8% discount rate under base case scenario Net Present Value Benefit to cost ratio – i.e. £1 DFID spend = £X benefit £3.1m 2.40 £2.0m £0.6m 0 1.90 1.27 1 £2.25m 2 0 1 £2.6m £3.7m 2.20 2.50 59. The table shows that, under base case assumptions, the PAC investment needs to improve the effectiveness of the Office of the Auditor General investment by 6.3% in order for the investment in the PAC to pay for itself.53 60. Opportunities and risks involved in implementing the intervention: Risks and opportunities are elaborated in specific sections below. Headline opportunities and risks are: 61. Opportunities: i. Newly-created Public Accounts Committee and revised select committee responsibilities (as elaborated above). ii. Increasing effectiveness of the Office of the Auditor General offers strong underpinning to the new Public Accounts Committee. iii. New influx of Senators and Deputies – Replacement of all Senators by end 2012 and anticipated new Deputies following 2013 parliamentary elections presents opportunities in terms of training new parliamentarians and shaping their approach to meeting their responsibilities. iv. Recently completed Parliamentary Strategic Plan (backdated to 2010-2015) provides opportunity for DFID to align support and dialogue around Parliament’s strategic priorities. v. Recently launched Parliamentary Radio Station (March 2012). This represents a major potential opportunity in terms of raising public awareness of Parliament and its role and facilitating public engagement. 62. Risks: See Risk Matrix at Section 6, below. What measures can be used to assess Value for Money for the intervention? 63: Financial value of Parliament’s spending on procurement that is not compliant with procurement procedures (as recorded in reports of the OAG). If this value goes down, then this will provide assurances that Parliament is reducing potential for fraud and wastage. Value of savings realised: If the value of savings realised (as a result of the PAC securing follow-up actions from the Executive) is greater than the PAC’s operating costs then the PAC more than pays for itself. 53 Taking a different and less conservative approach to potential benefits, if we assume DFIDs investment in the PAC results in 15% more audit recommendations being implemented (and a corresponding improvement in the efficiency of public spending) then the present value of benefits rises to £10.7 million, resulting in a Net Present Value of £8.5 million and a benefit: cost ratio of 4.8. 15 Amount of money recovered as a result of PAC pressing the Executive for follow up on fraud identified by the OAG. Summary Value for Money Statement for the preferred option 64. Under the preferred option, it is reasonable to conclude from the Cost-benefit Analysis (CBA) that the returns from supporting the PAC are likely to exceed the cost of the entire programme. The cost-benefit ratio in the base case suggests that every £1 that DFID spends on the programme will deliver £2.40 of benefits. On this basis, and taking sensitivity tests into account, it is reasonable to conclude that the intervention represents good value for money. 3. Commercial Case A. Why is the proposed funding mechanism/form of arrangement the right one for this intervention, with this development partner? 65. The funding type is ‘Non Budget Support Financial Aid’. DFID will sign a bilateral MoU with GoR (using ‘MoU between DFID and Partner Government’ template). Parliament has expressed strong preference for this arrangement. It enables close alignment with Parliament’s plans and priorities; will build Parliamentary ownership of the programme and will maximise scope for working with the Parliament’s own procedures. 66. This funding mechanism represents VFM in that it avoids the financial costs associated with setting up and funding a project implementation unit or management agent located outside of Parliament. This approach is consistent with the principles of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness; the Accra Agenda for Action and; the Government of Rwanda’s Aid Policy. The MoU will include specific commitments on maximising the value for money of development partner support, including through procurement (see below). B. Value for Money through procurement 67. Parliament adheres to national guidelines on procurement. These guidelines stipulate open, free and fair competition in order to promote value for money. Opportunities are widely advertised in local, regional or international media, using standard bidding documents. Bidders are debriefed on evaluation decisions and appeals mechanisms give opportunity to challenge procurement decisions before contracts are awarded. Both parliamentary chambers prepare an annual procurement plan that begins with needs identified under each department and is based on the annual action plan. Procurements are conducted for purchase of goods and services as well as for capital expenditure. 68. DFID’s FRA of Parliament, drawing on the most recent report of the Auditor General, noted various instances of non compliance with procurement procedures.54 These included instances of unplanned procurements, use of inappropriate procurement methods, unavailability of tender documents and inadequately supported expenditure. These concerns relate primarily to the Chamber of Deputies rather than to the Senate. The need to address procurement weakness has been built into the programme as an activity under Output 3 (‘Enhanced institutional capability to plan, manage, deliver and report against strategic objectives’). Specifically, immediately upon Business Case approval, a six-month ‘foundation phase’ for the programme will begin. This will include a consultancy of approximately 45 days to assist Parliament to strengthen its financial management systems and internal controls – including related to procurement (see section D, below). DFID will procure directly for this consultancy, in line with DFID procurement procedures so as to ensure fair competition and value for money. 4. Financial Case 54 Rwanda Parliament Fiduciary Risk Assessment, DFID, December 2011, pp. 20-21. 16 A. What are the costs, how are they profiled and how will you ensure accurate forecasting? 69. The UK will provide £3.25 million over a period four years (2012/13 – 2015/16) FY 2012/13: £430,000 FY 2013/14: £900,000 FY 2014/15: £1,025,000 FY 2015/16: £895,000 An approximate budget breakdown is included below. Output 1 Improved capacity of PAC and Budget Committee Output 2 Improved parliamentary transparency and public engagement Output 3 Enhanced institutional capability to plan, manage, deliver and report against strategic objectives Programme Coordination DFID managed reviews and studies (mandatory and discretional) Total FY1 FY2 £180,000 £380,000 FY3 £495,000 FY4 £375,000 Total £1,430,000 £60,000 £120,000 £125,000 £100,000 £405,000 £80,000 £250,000 £250,000 £265,000 £845,000 £80,000 £130,000 £130,000 £130,000 £470,000 £30,000 £20,000 £25,000 £25,000 £100,000 £430,000 £900,000 £1,025,000 £895,000 £3,250,000 70. Adequate funding is available. The programme and budget are included in DFID-Rwanda’s Operational Plan for the current Spending Round. For 2015/16 spend (i.e. beyond the end date of DFID Rwanda Operational Plan and the Spending Review period), the Divisional Accountant for the region has been informed in order to ensure compliance with Treasury requirements. B. How it will be funded: capital/programme/admin? 71. Funds will come from programme resources. C. How funds will be paid out? 72. The financial payment type is non-budget support financial aid. In addition, a short-term technical assistance consultancy will start to mitigate fiduciary risks during the programme’s six-month foundation phase. Funds will be disbursed on a 6-monthly basis into a bank account set up for receipt of DFID funds. Disbursement will linked to approval by the Technical Steering Committee (see Management Case below) of an annual workplan and budget for the programme as well as progress and financial reports from the previous period (in keeping with MoU commitments and provisions). During the programme’s 6-month foundation phase, and during the recruitment of a Parliament-based Programme Manager, the DFID Lead Adviser and Deputy Programme Manager will exercise close oversight of financial arrangements and the annual workplan and budget. D. What is the assessment of financial risk and fraud? 17 73. Parliament uses national public financial regulations and prepares quarterly expenditure reports and annual financial statements which are audited by the Office of the Auditor General. Parliament has received unqualified audit opinions in the last two years (FY 2009 and 2010) and the audits identified no cases of fraudulent activity within Parliament. The external audit report following the end of the DFID-UNDP support was also clean. Parliament has put in place payroll controls to ensure that clear procedures and adequate controls exist around payroll processing. In addition, Parliament has put in place procedures and controls over non-salary expenditures. 74. At the same time, audits have identified areas of fiduciary risk. Following discussions with Parliament, in late 2011 DFID undertook a fiduciary risk assessment of Parliament. The assessment concluded that the overall level of fiduciary risk was ‘substantial’. The overall summary of fiduciary risk levels and the trajectory of change is provided in the table below: Category 1. Credibility of the budget Risk level 2011 Moderate 2. Comprehensiveness and transparency Moderate 3. Policy based budgeting Low 4. Predictability and control in budget execution Substantial 5. Accounting, recording and reporting Substantial 6. External scrutiny and audit Trajectory of change Moderate ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ 75. The ‘substantial’ risk rating for predictability and control in budget execution relates largely to instances of noncompliance with procurement procedures (as discussed at above) as well as deficiencies in internal audit (primarily the vacant post for the Chamber of Deputies’ internal auditor).55 The ‘substantial’ risk rating for ‘accounting, recording and reporting’ relates largely to problems with piloting new financial management software package. As noted in the FRA, the risk rating for this area is likely to reduce significantly as new software is introduced to offer additional safeguards while IFMIS piloting problems are addressed. In consultation with Parliament, DFID has agreed to directly provide technical assistance to strengthen Parliament’s financial management and controls. This consultancy will commence as a matter of priority. It will address the weaknesses identified in the FRA and will give particular attention to any fiduciary risks relating to the provision of programme funding by development partners. E. How will expenditure be monitored, reported and accounted for? 76. Development partner projects have not been included in budget and financial reports on Parliament’s budget execution – thereby creating the risk that direct donor funding may not be subject to the necessary audit scrutiny. However, this is because Parliament has not previously received direct financial aid from development partners. Parliament has agreed that DFID expenditure will be on-budget and will be monitored through review of Parliament’s financial statements, internal audits and external audit by the Office of the Auditor General. The programme’s foundation phase and financial management consultancy will include ensuring that Parliament takes the necessary steps to strengthen these areas – for example by implementing the Ministerial instruction that all budget agencies put in place an independent audit committee. Follow up on audit recommendations and FRA action points will be included in 55 This position is currently vacant (Jan 2012) and Parliament is in discussion with Ministry of Public Service to fill the post. 18 regular progress review meetings. These provisions will give DFID the necessary assurance that this programme’s funds will be used for their intended purposes. 5. Management Case A. What are the Management Arrangements for implementing the intervention? 77. The programme will be managed on a day to day basis by a Programme Coordinator, based in Parliament. The Clerks will be responsible for overall management and coordination on behalf of Parliament. DFID has agreed with Parliament and UNDP that a Programme Coordinator of donor support who is already working in Parliament (paid for through a UNDP programme) will also serve as Programme Coordinator for DFID support. This arrangement is the strong preference of Parliament and will help avoid recruitment delays. The scope of work for the Programme Coordinator will be amended to reflect additional responsibilities in relation to DFID support. UNDP will continue to cover the Coordinator salary. DFID was involved in the competitive recruitment of the Coordinator as part of a previous joint DFID-UNDP parliamentary support component. The Coordinator will continue to report to the Clerks of Parliament, in close liaison with UNDP and, going forward, with DFID. 78. This arrangement is a transitional one, pending the operationalisation of a Single Project Implementation Unit (SPIU). In February 2011, the Rwandan Cabinet endorsed the creation of an SPIU for every budget agency. This unit would coordinate development partner engagement and promote alignment with Parliamentary priorities, systems and processes. Parliament is in discussion with the Ministry of Public Service and Labour (MIFOTRA) to ensure that an SPIU is incorporated into Parliament’s organisational structure. Once this is agreed, Parliament will operationalise the SPIU – including competitive recruitment for all positions. DFID will ensure that the Programme’s management arrangements are consistent with and contribute to Parliament’s plans for implementing an SPIU. 79. The programme will be overseen by a Technical Steering Committee (TSC). There will be six TSC meetings per annum.56 The TSC will be chaired by the Clerks of Parliament and will include representation from the offices of the PAC and Budget Committee as well as the Programme Coordinator, and DFID-Rwanda advisory and programme management representatives. As far as possible, decisions will be made by consensus. Further details of oversight arrangements will be finalised during the programme’s foundation phase (and these arrangements will be reviewed as part of programme reviews). The TSC will discuss and sign off annual workplans and budgets for the programme. The TSC will report to Parliament’s highlevel Programme Steering Committee which is responsible for the overall implementation of Parliament’s strategic plan, including approving Parliament’s annual workplans and budgets.57 80. DFID Project Management: Three staff in the DFID Rwanda Governance Team will be involved in ensuring sound project implementation. The Project Officer will have core tasks for ensuring compliance with corporate requirements on financial management, procurement, implementation progress and completion reviews and payments. The project Lead Adviser will be in charge of dialogue on programme plans and budgets, submissions, results, relationships and for ensuring synergies with the overall PFM and accountability support and dialogue. The Governance Team Leader will be responsible for quality assurance and accountability to the Head of Office. Mechanisms to monitor and address potential poor performance on the part of the Parliament will be elaborated in the MoU between DFID and GoR. 81. DFID-funded Strategic Adviser to Parliament: Whilst the Programme Coordinator will manage day to day programme management, the DFID programme will also include provision for a Strategic Adviser to Parliament. Parliament has requested such a position in order to advise on the overall strategic direction of parliament and to improve internal coordination and 56 During the six-month foundation phase, the TSC will meet monthly. This grouping is equivalent to a parliamentary reform committee and is composed of parliamentarians and senior parliamentary administrators. 57 19 results focus. The Strategic Adviser will report to the Clerks of Parliament and will assist the work of the Steering Committee which monitors the implementation of Parliament’s overall Strategic Plan. The Strategic Adviser will also work with the Internal Committee of each chamber.58 The position of Strategic Adviser will be advertised internationally. Recruitment will be managed by Parliament, in collaboration with DFID. B. What are the risks and how will they be managed? 82. Due to Cabinet’s instruction that Parliament creates an SPIU, Parliament’s own institutional arrangements for coordinating and overseeing development partner support are in transition. The risk is that uncertainties regarding SPIU implementation make it difficult for DFID to align with parliament’s own management/institutional arrangements and that this compromises implementation momentum. However, the creation of the SPIU represents a significant opportunity for Parliament to use development partner support more strategically and effectively, including to reduce transaction costs and, potentially, to transition to basket funding in the future. To mitigate SPIU-related risk, DFID will support the transition process and establishment of the SPIU. This falls under Output 3 of the programme (‘enhance Parliament’s institutional capability to plan, manage, deliver and report against strategic objectives’). DFID will also continue to engage with other donors that support parliament – principally the EU and UNDP to ensure coordination during the transition to an SPIU. 83. Further risks are elaborated in the Risk Matrix at Section 6, below. C. What conditions apply? 84. As part of the programme’s six-month foundation phase, a financial management and fiduciary risk consultancy will provide additional assurances and oversight of DFID’s first disbursement to parliament. At the same time, the consultant will work with parliament to improve financial controls. Disbursements after the end of the foundation phase will occur only upon verification and agreement between DFID, the consultant and Parliament that systems and procedures have been sufficiently strengthened and that the trajectory of change is positive. Specific priority reforms/conditions will be mutually agreed at the outset of the consultancy. D. How will progress and results be monitored, measured and evaluated? 85. There will be a stocktake review at the end of the six-month foundation phase. This review will assess the extent of progress against agreed indicators and timelines for priority reforms to financial management and controls. The findings of the review will determine whether DFID can be confident in making future programme disbursements. The review will also consider progress regarding the establishment of the SPIU. The programme will be monitored jointly with Parliament’s Monitoring and Evaluation Unit as part of annual reviews of progress and results linked to Parliament’s annual workplan. These reviews will be approached and designed so as to build the capacity of Parliament’s monitoring function, as well as to deliver robust findings. Independent external consultants will form part of the review teams. 86. Progress will be measured using a combination of independent international indicators and local sources. Sources of international indicators built into the programme logframe include data from the Open Budget Partnership and Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) reports. Local sources for measuring progress will include independently produced public perception survey data from the Institute of Research and Dialogue for Peace (IRDP). New survey data will be needed to establish a baseline for the following indicator: ‘% increase in proportion of media, trade unions and civil society groups stating they have attended parliamentary hearings and/or accessed parliamentary reports in the past 12 months.’ New surveys will also be commissioned to generate data from within parliament and from external According to Parliament’s Strategic Plan, the Internal Committee ‘is composed of, as appropriate, the Bureau of the Chamber of Deputies or by the Bureau of the Senate, the Clerk and the Deputy Clerk and Directors General of the services from the concerned Chamber.’ 58 20 stakeholders on perceptions of parliamentary effectiveness and openness.59 This survey work will be commissioned during the programme’s foundation phase.60 87. As reflected in the attached logframe and at other points in this document, there exist sufficiently credible and reliable data sources and baselines from which to monitor progress against milestones and to assess project impact. Monitoring information will feed into decisions on programme delivery through TSC discussions and approval processes for annual programme workplans. It is anticipated that an independent impact evaluation is unlikely to be necessary for this programme. This is because the programme is not of high financial value (i.e. is below £5 million) and the cost and complexity of evaluation is unlikely to deliver sufficiently proportionate benefits.61 There may be stronger justification for carrying out a combined evaluation DFID’s support to the OAG and Parliament, given the interdependent nature of the PAC and OAG and the ways in which the two programmes are closely complementary in their thematic focus. Issues around the purpose, key evaluation questions, planning and methodology of a potential combined evaluation will be reviewed in greater detail during the foundation phase and a final decision reached by the end of this phase. 6. Risk matrix 88. Principal risks (P = probability; S = significance): Risk 1. Parliament and/or MPs do not fully exercise and assert increased technical capacity 2. Donor involvement/funding perceived to be compromising parliamentary independence/sovereignty 3. Programme underachievement due to slow spend resulting from institutional bottlenecks, limited absorptive capacity within Parliament, and lack of specificity regarding strategic priorities and monitoring and implementation 4. Conduct surrounding 2013 parliamentary elections compromises the standing of MPs and of Parliament 5. Disagreement between DFID and Parliament regarding design or implementation of governance and management arrangements for the programme P S Prevention/Mitigation M M Programme design and implementation factors in incentive structures which shape the conduct of MPs and parliamentary officials; joint DFID-FCO analysis of contextual and institutional dynamics affecting parliament. L H Parliament clearly in ‘driving seat’ (e.g. strong alignment of donor support to Parliament’s priorities, strong ownership on the part of parliamentary officials); involvement of MPs in programme oversight. H H This risk has been internalised to the programme and will be addressed under Output 3 (strengthening institutional capacity); improved donor coordination will minimise risk of support from multiple donors tying up scare parliamentary capacity. L L H UK-GoR and wider dialogue between GoR and international partners around 2013 elections and the implications for support of any concerns that may arise. M Learning of lessons from previous rounds of donor support; clear setting and management of expectations during design and early implementation; clear and well-drafted ToR for Parliamentary Strategic Adviser and Programme 59 A pre-existing survey template developed by the Inter-Parliamentary Union will be used. This will help to maximise value for money. 60 This activity will be funded as part of Output 3: Enhanced institutional capability to plan, manage, deliver and report against strategic objectives 61 See DFID Q&A on Embedding Evaluation, Q.15. 21 6. Parliamentary independence and autonomy significantly curtailed and/or weak GoR follow-up on audit OAG/PAC recommendations 7. OAG fails to provide parliament with the timely and high quality information upon which the PAC relies 8. Funds not used for intended purposes or not properly accounted for. 9. Parliament’s autonomy and impact held back due to weak supporting environment (e.g. re: environment for media, political parties and civil society; public expectations of parliament). 11. Uncertainties and delays regarding implementation of Single Project Implementation Unit (SPIU) compromise implementation momentum Coordinator; Parliament in the lead for recruitment of Strategic Adviser.62 Issues of independence/autonomy of parliament and follow up linked to overall policy dialogue with GoR (including through EU-GoR ‘Article 8’ discussions). L H L M DFID support programme to the Office of the Auditor General (2011-2015). L H Fiduciary Risk Assessment conducted as part of programme design; immediate technical assistance to help strengthen systems for financial management and controls; quarterly and annual financial reports and funds will be subject to audit by the OAG; follow up on audit recommendations and DFID FRA priority actions will be included in regular progress review meetings. M M Both through programming and dialogue, DFID and FCO to encourage building of effective and strategic relationships between parliament, civil society and the media. M M DFID engagement with Parliament to help expedite establishment of SPIU and to clarify requirements and timelines (including through liaison with Public Service Commission). 89. Residual risk: On the basis of the above, the residual risk is judged to be high. For the only risk with a ‘high’ probability and a ‘high’ significance rating, mitigation measures have been built into the programme itself. Three risks with ‘high’ significance ratings have low probability ratings. 62 Appointee to be jointly agreed with DFID. Job specification to emphasise core competencies of relationship management, strong communication skills etc, alongside technical competency areas. 22