Position Paper on Nuclear Power
Compiled by the Department of International Information Services, Ministry of
Foreign Affairs
June 20, 2014
1. What are the government’s policies for reducing reliance on
nuclear power?
The government plans to reduce the role nuclear power plays in
generating electricity in Taiwan and is actively working to develop
renewable energy sources. Such goals cannot be accomplished
overnight, however. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s existing nuclear plants are
aging, as the Chinshan Nuclear Power Plant (New Taipei City) began
commercial operations in 1978 and 1979, the Kuosheng Nuclear
Power Plant (New Taipei City) began generating power in 1981 and
1983, and the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant (Pingtung County)
came on line in 1984 and 1985. All reactors at the Chinshan plant are
scheduled to be shut down by 2019, those at the Kuosheng plant by
2023 and the reactors at the Maanshan plant by 2025.
The Lungmen Nuclear Power Plant (New Taipei City) project was
proposed in 1980 and construction began in March 1999.
Construction was halted in October 2000 and resumed in 2001.
Lungmen’s No. 1 reactor was originally scheduled to begin
commercial operation in 2015 and No. 2 in 2018. Lungmen’s
completion would compensate for the loss of generation capacity
resulting from the decommissioning of the three older nuclear power
plants. In line with the government’s goal of making Taiwan a
nuclear-free country, the Lungmen facility was originally scheduled to
shut down in 2055.
2. What percentage of electricity is generated by nuclear power in
Taiwan?
In 2013, nuclear power accounted for 18.8 percent of Taiwan’s
electricity supply. Other sources were coal (38.4 percent), gas (31.1
percent), renewable (4.5 percent), cogeneration (3.4 percent), oil (2.3
percent) and pumped-storage hydropower (1.5 percent). In the past
decade, nuclear power accounted for on average one-fifth of Taiwan’s
electricity supply, with 18.4 percent in 2012, 19 percent in 2011, 19.3
percent in 2010 and 20.7 percent in 2009.
3. Why can’t Taiwan become a nuclear-free country right away?
Immediately halting power generation at existing nuclear plants is
likely to result in power shortages and higher electricity bills, which
would cause consumer prices to rise. Renewable energy sources
cannot be expected to compensate for the loss of generation capacity
that would result from shutting down all the Lungmen nuclear power
plants. Without the added capacity of the Lungmen facility, even more
optimistic power consumption estimates predict that Taiwan could
face power rationing in 2016 and power shortages in 2018, when the
older nuclear power plants are scheduled to begin shutting down.
Conventional energy sources do not provide an environmentally
friendly alternative, as gas-fired and coal-burning power plants
produce much greater carbon emissions than nuclear plants. Therefore,
government estimates indicate that replacing Lungmen’s generation
capacity with gas-fired facilities would likely increase carbon
emissions by 8.74 million tons, while coal-burning facilities would
boost emissions by 19.01 million tons. Such increases would likely
result in trade sanctions that would have a negative impact on
Taiwan’s economic competitiveness.
4. Is the Lungmen plant necessary given the government’s active
promotion of energy-saving measures? Wouldn’t it be better to
place a cap on demand for electricity?
Demand for power closely matches economic development trends.
Trying to prevent any growth in demand for electricity could cause
Taiwan’s economy to slow down, which could force domestic
industries to relocate overseas, increase the unemployment rate and
reduce salaries.
5. Why can’t Taiwan replace nuclear power with renewable
sources such as geothermal, solar and wind energy?
The present level of renewable energy technology development would
make it very difficult to ensure a stable, reliable supply of electricity.
Solar panels, for example, can only produce electricity at peak
efficiency for three to four hours each day in Taiwan, whereas the
Lungmen plant promises to generate electricity efficiently around the
clock.
Greater reliance on solar power would drive electricity bills higher.
Matching the amount of electricity the Lungmen plant could produce
each year, for example, would require covering an area of about 160
square kilometers (approximately three-fifths the size of Taipei City)
with solar panels. Securing that much land would be extremely
difficult and expensive, given Taiwan’s high real estate prices. In
terms of infrastructure investment, solar generation facilities are much
more costly than coal or liquefied natural gas facilities. According to
most projections, electrical rates would climb to two to three times
their current levels if all electricity were generated from solar sources.
Wind power faces similar limitations. Turbines, of course, can
only generate power when there is sufficient wind, which means that
wind energy cannot be relied upon as a stable source of electricity.
Moreover, generating the amount of electricity equivalent to that of
the Lungmen plant would require lining Taiwan’s shores with wind
turbines. As for geothermal energy, Taiwan’s estimated shallow
geothermal energy sources are capable of producing about 150
megawatts, or only 5.6 percent of the total projected capacity of the
Lungmen plant.
6. Why can’t Taiwan rely more on liquefied natural gas?
While liquefied natural gas may be a relatively low-carbon source of
energy, increased use of liquefied natural gas to generate electricity
would introduce another set of problems. First, the private sector
would need 10 to 12 years to construct enough gas-burning power
plants to match the capacity of the Lungmen facility, which is near
completion. Second, Taiwan would have to expand its infrastructure
for storing and transporting liquefied natural gas. The country’s
current safety stock, or natural gas reserve, is sufficient only to supply
power for seven days in summer. Third, virtually all natural gas used
in Taiwan is imported, which means that the country would be
extremely vulnerable to international price increases.
7. What are the current operational conditions of nuclear power
plants in Taiwan?
In an International Atomic Energy Agency summary of a 2011–2013
survey of all commercial reactors operating in 31 countries, Taiwan
ranked No. 6 both in unplanned capability loss factor (UCLF) and
unit capability factor (UCF). UCLF indicates energy losses over time
due to outages and power reductions that result from unplanned
equipment failures or other issues, while UCF indicates energy
production reliability. These two factors reflect a plant’s effectiveness
at maximizing available electrical generation capacity and provide an
overall indication of how well a plant is operated and maintained.
Securing sixth place in both rankings demonstrates that Taiwan’s
nuclear power plants are managed effectively and proactively.
8. What is the government’s stance on the Lungmen controversy?
To alleviate public concerns over the Lungmen plant, at the end of
April this year the government decided to seal the No. 1 reactor after
a safety inspection, suspend construction of the No. 2 reactor and hold
a national energy conference as soon as possible so as to ensure an
adequate power supply in the future. Mothballing the facility rather
than shutting it down outright means that it will be available should
the need arise in the future. About 98 percent of Taiwan’s energy is
imported, which means that the country needs to maintain an optimal
mix of energy options, be they coal, liquefied natural gas, nuclear
power or renewable energy.
9. Does halting construction of the Lungmen plant mean the
project is being terminated or scrapped? Does that represent a
major change of government policy?
Halting construction is not the same as terminating the project, and
the government has not deviated from its policy. The decision to halt
construction is in line with a resolution reached by ruling and
opposition legislative caucuses on February 26, 2013. The resolution
states that no additional budget will be allocated for the Lungmen
facility, nor will fuel rods be installed prior to a national referendum
on the plant’s future. The resolution also noted that although the
country’s 2012 and 2013 budgets had already been allocated, all
construction would be suspended except for a safety inspection and
work that had been contracted out previously. In other words, the
future operation of the plant must be decided through a referendum
and no additional budget proposal will be submitted for legislative
approval until the result of the referendum is known.
10. Why can’t a national referendum be held now? Does Taiwan’s
Referendum Act set a relatively high threshold?
The future of the Lungmen plant cannot be decided by any individual
or interest group. A decision on such a major public policy must be
rendered through a referendum after a safety inspection has been
conducted—an entirely appropriate course of action for a democratic
country. Referendum thresholds differ from country to country. For a
referendum to be binding in Taiwan, 50 percent of all eligible voters
must cast ballots and at least half must vote in favor of the proposal,
which is a higher threshold than that found in many other countries. It
must be noted, however, that Taiwan’s voter turnout tends to be strong.
For example, an average of 78 percent of all eligible voters vote in
presidential elections and an average of 65 percent cast ballots in
legislative elections, which means that a relatively high threshold is
not unreasonable.