DEMOGRAPHICS Page 4-1 CEMETERY DEMOGRAPHY Adapted by Robin Gibson-Brown for Distance education from: Luczkovich, JJ and Ambrose, WG, “Cemetery Demography”, Laboratory in Environmental Biology, p. 47-56. OBJECTIVES This lab will enable the student to: understand some of the basic concepts of: population demography and life tables survivorship, mortality and population age structure understand how various factors such as disease and war affected human demography over the past 150 years. evaluate any observed trends in human survivorship and speculate on the reason for any differences. MATERIALS data sheets pencil calculator computer (optional for graphing ) Local cemeteries are an excellent place to complete human demographic studies. They are an easy place to obtain birth and death dates for hundreds of persons. These data will allow for a historical analysis of demographic changes over the decades. Specifically, you can create a static life table (a life that averages death rates over many generations), calculate average death rates, and graphically represent the survivorship data on human populations living in an area by examining trends in the data. Also, data collected from different time periods, in different cemeteries with religious and ethnic differences, and from different geographical areas can be compared using survivorship curves to look for demographic patterns. Life tables summarize patterns of mortality experienced by a population as a function of age. For population ecologists, life tables contain the raw material for understanding population dynamics and enable them to construct survivorship curves that demonstrate the mortality rates for a specific population for a specific time period. Life tables have the following components: 1. age interval (x); for instance, 0-5 years, 10-20 weeks, 4-5 days, etc. 2. number of individuals present at the beginning of a specific age interval (nx); in other words, the number of survivors from the last interval 3. number of individuals dying within a specific age interval (dx) 4. proportion of individuals of the total population present at the beginning of a specific age interval (lx) DEMOGRAPHICS Page 4-2 There are two kinds of life tables that utilize the data collected differently. The first is a cohort life table which, in theory, is the simplest way to obtain a survivorship curve because it follows the mortality schedule of a group of individuals within a species that were born, hatched or germinated at the same time (cohorts). These individuals are exposed to the same environmental factors, and their survival is followed by documenting the ages at which individual members of that cohort die. This method is not feasible for species with a lengthy life span. Alternatively, the survivorship of long-lived species such as humans can be studied when the age of the remains of dead organisms can be determined. A static life table averages death rates over many generations. Local cemeteries are an excellent place to complete human demographic studies, or the statistical study of populations because it is easy to obtain birth and death dates for hundreds of people in the region. These data facilitate a historical analysis of demographic changes over the decades and can be used to calculate the average death rates for an era and determine survivorship trends on human populations living in an area. Data collected from different time periods, in different cemeteries representing religious and ethnic differences, and from different geographic areas can be compared using survivorship curves to look for the demographic patterns for different eras, religions and ethnicity. Three time periods were selected for studying how populations change based on the year of death: pre-1900, 1901-1945, and 1946-present. These periods correspond roughly to the preindustrial period during the Civil War, the post-industrial period from World War I to World War II, and the post-World War II period until the present. Changes in health care and largescale regional and global wars have had marked effects on the demographics of our population. For the time periods we are considering, think of the factors that may influence your data. In particular, think about disease epidemics, pre-natal care and changes in infant mortality and childbirth-related deaths, major wars, etc. In order to study the entire human population that once lived in New Bern, we would have to visit all of the local cemeteries and assume that no one emigrated (left the area) and were buried elsewhere or immigrated and were buried locally. We will assume that the cemetery we will visit is representative of all people living in this area, although we should be aware of any potential biases in the data. There are three types of survivorship curves: early mortality, constant mortality and late mortality. Early mortality describes the condition where most individuals are lost at infancy or early in life. For constant mortality, there is a steady decrease in the population throughout the lifespan of the individuals. Late mortality identifies the trend where most individuals survive until the end of their lifespan. Do any of these trends describe the periods we are studying? We will determine this when the data is graphed and speculate on possible reasons for any differences. Also, we will evaluate any differences between males and females. DEMOGRAPHICS Page 4-3 PROCEDURE 1. Go to a local cemetery with numerous tombstones that has old graves that date back to the 1800’s as well as now. You will collect data from three different assigned time period, pre1900 (Table 4-1), 1901-1945 (Table 4-2) or 1946 to present (Table 4-3). 2. On the appropriate table (4-1, 4-2, 4-3), record the individual’s initials (to avoid duplications), the year of death, and calculate the age at death while you are in the cemetery. Take a partner (or several partners)with you so it takes less time to collect the data. Separate the statistics for men and women. If you are unsure of the individual’s sex, make your best guess. Infants below the age of 1 should be listed as age 0. Obtain a minimum of 50 males and 50 females for each period. 3. Generate a static life table (number surviving per 1000 individuals), separating males and females, for each time period in Tables 4-4, 4-5 and 4-6 by following these instructions: In COLUMN 1, “x” denotes the age interval where x = 0 for 0-9 year olds, x = 10 for 1019 year olds, etc. The subscript “x” in subsequent columns identifies the interval for which you are performing calculations (nx can refer to n10, n20, n30, etc.). COLUMN 2 represents the age interval of individuals in years. The number of individuals present at the beginning of the age interval (nx) is calculated in COLUMNS 3/7 by subtracting the number of deaths in the previous row from the number present at the beginning of that interval. nx = nx-10 - dx-10 for x = 0, use the number of graves in sample In COLUMNS 4/8 record the number of deaths per age interval. Calculate the proportion surviving from birth (lx) in COLUMNS 5/9 by dividing the number of individuals present at the beginning by the total sample size (the value of n0). lx = nx / nx-10 for x = 0, divide n0 by n0 - the value is always 1 In COLUMNS 6/10, calculate the survivorship of the population: (lx) x 1000 4. In Figure 4-1, generate a graph (using paper and pen or a computer) of your data with COLUMN 1 (x) on the x-axis and the Survivorship per 1000 (COLUMN 6/10) on the y-axis. Record all time periods of data that you collected on the same graph using separate curves for males and females. There should be SIX different lines represented on this plot; therefore, include a legend. I would suggest using the same colored pen for the same time period and differentiating between males and females with a different symbol; this will help in your analysis. This graph should be in your notebook along with all your data sheets. DEMOGRAPHICS Page 4-4 Table 4-1 RECORD OF DEATHS: Pre 1900’s MALES Initials Year of Death Age at Death Initials FEMALES Year of Death Age at Death Initials Year of Death Age at Death Initials Year of Death Age at Death DEMOGRAPHICS Page 4-5 Table 4-2 RECORD OF DEATHS: 1901-1945 MALES Initials Year of Death Age at Death Initials FEMALES Year of Death Age at Death Initials Year of Death Age at Death Initials Year of Death Age at Death DEMOGRAPHICS Page 4-6 Table 4-3 RECORD OF DEATHS: 1946- Present MALES Initials Year of Death Age at Death Initials FEMALES Year of Death Age at Death Initials Year of Death Age at Death Initials Year of Death Age at Death DEMOGRAPHICS Page 4-7 Table 4-4 STATIC LIFE TABLE: pre 1900 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 MALES (x) Age Interval , years 0 0-9 10 10-19 20 20-29 30 30-39 40 40-49 50 50-59 60 60-69 70 70-79 80 80-89 90 90-99 100 100109 # Present at Beginning of Age Interval (nx) # of Deaths per Age Class (dx) Proportio n Surviving from Birth (lx) nx / n0 8 9 10 FEMALES Survivorship per 1000 # Present at Beginning of Age Interval (nx) # of Deaths per Age Class (dx) Proportio n Surviving from Birth (lx) nx / n 0 Survivorship per 1000 DEMOGRAPHICS Page 4-8 Table 4-5 STATIC LIFE TABLE: 1901-1946 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 MALES (x) Age Interval, years 0 0-9 10 10-19 20 20-29 30 30-39 40 40-49 50 50-59 60 60-69 70 70-79 80 80-89 90 90-99 100 100109 # Present at Beginning of Age Interval (nx) # of Deaths per Age Class (dx) Proportion Surviving from Birth (lx) nx / n0 8 9 10 FEMALES Survivorship per 1000 # Present at Beginning of Age Interval (nx) # of Deaths per Age Class (dx) Proportion Surviving from Birth (lx) nx / n 0 Survivorship per 1000 DEMOGRAPHICS Page 4-9 Table 4-6 STATIC LIFE TABLE: 1946-Present 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 MALES (x) Age Interval, years 0 0-9 10 10-19 20 20-29 30 30-39 40 40-49 50 50-59 60 60-69 70 70-79 80 80-89 90 90-99 100 100109 # Present at Beginning of Age Interval (nx) # of Deaths per Age Class (dx) Proportion Surviving from Birth (lx) nx / n0 8 9 10 FEMALES Survivorship per 1000 # Present at Beginning of Age Interval (nx) # of Deaths per Age Class (dx) Proportion Surviving from Birth (lx) nx / n0 Survivorship per 1000 DEMOGRAPHICS Page 4-10 Figure 4-1 SURVIVORSHIP CURVES FOR THREE TIME PERIODS IN ______________________ 1000 900 800 Survivorship per 1000 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Age Interval (x) 70 80 90 100 110 DEMOGRAPHICS Page 4-11 QUESTIONS to be answered in complete sentences 1. Describe the graph you generated in Figure 6-1. What type of survivorship curve have you generated for EACH time period? Your choices are: early mortality, constant mortality and late mortality. Do not evaluate males and females separately, generalize your answer based on time period alone – not all choices may be used. 2. What might cause the changes in survivorship trends between the time periods? 3. Which time period has the shortest life span? The longest? 4. Throughout history, are there any differences between the life spans of men and women? Support your answer by citing statistics from the data you collected. Speculate on the reason. 5. Speculate on the survivorship trends for the population if the following scenarios are realized. Describe any changes in the curve, mortality rate and life span of the population. a. AIDS cases in our society continue to increase and there is no hope of a cure. b. Medical advances continue, eliminating all life-threatening diseases. 6. Based on your knowledge, sketch a survivorship curve for a third-world country that has a high infant mortality rate. Add another line that demonstrates survivorship if infant mortality were greatly reduced and there is now a constant mortality rate. Provide a legend for these lines.