Rail Freight Transport Development
1970-2010 and 2010-2050
compiled by Christoph Seidelmann, Frankfurt am Main
1
The Framework
1.1
Trade
Trade with raw material, semi-finished goods and manufactured goods is the basis for
transportation. Whatever is traded (except services) needs to be transported.
1970-2010
World trade increased between 1970 and 2010 considerably. The growth rate of world trade
was constantly greater than the growth rate of world GDP. This development s called
globalisation. The greater growth of world trade – compared to GDP growth – is mainly
created by 3 factors:
 Liberalisation, removal of trade barriers such as customs
 Containerisation with great increase of transport efficiency and decrease of transport
prices
 Communication with great increase of efficiency and decrease of prices
Table 1
Growth Rates
in percent p. a.
2002-2005
2005-2010
World economic output
4,3
3,5
World trade in money value
6,5
5,6
World trade manufactured goods in tonnage 7,0
5,6
Zachcial, M.: “Containerschifffahrt” in Handbuch Logistik, Berlin-Heidelberg 2002, p. C3-37.
1
International trade within Europe follows the same scheme. The economic integration with
the European Union has fostered this growth.
National trade within most European countries normally follows in average the GDP
development.
Table 2
Development of transport in t-km in relation to GDP in European Countries 1995-2008
GDP growth rate of 100 related to a transport volume increase of:
Denmark
70
United Kingdom
72
Belgium
72
Finland
78
Czech Republic
80
France
83
Luxembourg
85
Netherlands
85
Sweden
85
Italy
93
Poland
100
Austria
102
Germany
115
Latvia
120
Lithonia
125
Ireland
130
Hungary
130
Slovenia
135
Bulgaria
138
Spain
142
Portugal
150
27 EU Sates
102
Source: Eurostat. Hey, C., Elmer, C-F.: Grenzen des Güterverkehrswachstums warden sichtbar, in Internatiionales
Verkehrswesen, Hamburg, 6/2012
2
2010-2050
Most experts foresee a continuation of growth of world trade. They foresee an annual growth
rate of 3 – 5 %. When applying this figure to the 2010-2050 periods, this would result in an
accumulated growth of
Table 3
Year
growth figure
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
100
150
222
328
485
If we understand that the relations as given in Table 3 continue, this would result in a growth
rate of transport of manufactured goods tonnage of 485 % during this 40 years period.
European trade and national trade might continue to grow at the same rate as national GDP, i.
e. some what less.
OECD foresees a growth of 80 % in rail freight volume for the period until 2050. [UIC
Conference in Tangiers, in Containers Magazine of BIC, 01/2013, p. 19]
1.2
Logistics
Logistic service demand describes the quality structure for transport. Service quality of
producers of transport services must meet the logistics demand of supply and distribution in
trade.
1970-2010
Logistics patterns have changed considerably between 1970 and 2010, and a general trend to
move away from traditional rail freight patterns can be observed. Hard coal for energy
economy is continuously replaced by mineral oil, iron and steel production migrates to
coastline places or places on inland waterways that allow for barges with high capacity. Two
commodities that formed the basic business of rail freight have decreased their demand for
rail transportation. In the early 1970s, some fantasies appeared that in future additional power
station capacity far inland was needed, and that such capacity would rely on hard coal
imported from overseas and carried by rail inland to the power stations. This prediction did
not realise. Mineral oil and its products have been carried on long distance by pipe-line, on
shorter distance by barge of by tank railcars.
The other logistic development started in the 1970s. It had been first introduced by Japan car
manufacturers under the brand “Kan Ban” and was taken over by the North American and
European industry under the name “just in time delivery”. The car manufacturer has
traditionally ordered large quantities of products needed in the assembly line in advance, and
stored them in a depot next to the factory. The assembly parts (such as rubber tires or
batteries) were taken from this stock and brought to the assembly work line when needed. The
new system removed this activity: The car manufacturer completes his detailed production
3
planning for the next day in the afternoon before, and his computers produce detailed listings
of all assembly parts that are needed. Then the computers produce and transmit a delivery call
to the supplier of such assembly parts, and the supplier must organise over night transport
from his stock to the automobile factory in a way that the parts arrive just before the
production line starts to work. This creates considerable savings in the production process,
and the logistic system was taken over by other industry as well. E. g the retail economy went
the same way: Cash register with bar code scanners can sum up in the late afternoon what has
been sold over the daytime, and the store accountancy will compute which articles may run
out the other day and need replacing urgently. So these computers produce and transmit
delivery calls to the manufacturers of consumer goods or to the central depot of the retailer,
and the transportation system must carry the demanded items over night to the store so that
they are in the shelf the other morning.
This just in time delivery system needs much more flexibility, speed and reliability than the
traditional supply and distribution system. Traditional rail freight with single railcars could no
longer meet this quality demand. Large market segments for transportation of semi-finished
material and of consumer goods were lost for rail freight.
The third trend in logistics had been the globalisation, the global sourcing. Many semifinished part and consumer goods were ordered in cheap labour regions and transported to the
markets of developed countries with wealthy consumers. This development was fostered by
containerisation, and it promoted further containerisation: The main cost advantage of the
container system is created by the economies of scale: The more items are transported, the
cheaper gets the cost of each single item to be transported. The container transport system by
its paramount low price economics took over cargo from specialised transport patterns such as
bananas from Refrigerated Cargo Ships, or Scotch whisky in tank containers replaced the
carriage of bottled whisky packed in wooden cases. All this transportation goes by ship, but
rail gets its share when it comes to long distance hinterland transportation.
2010-2050
The process that hard coal and iron ore is no longer carried by rail at large scale, seems like is
widely completed in these days and will continue at lower speed, certainly in North America
and in Europe.
Some predictions assume that West China might become a far more important manufacturing
area, and this might lead to a development that the traditional transport organisation factory –
sea port at the Eastern coastline of China – ship transport via Suez Canal to South and West
Europe may be replaced by a rail transport from West China via Kazakhstan and Russia to the
European markets. Similarly, some West Asia markets may be served by this way, when the
local political problems can be solved and the full purchase power of their mineral oil
production can flow into consumer demand.
Similarly, the process of just-in-time logistics has been widely introduced wherever this might
make sense. Some patterns of this logistics are changing: In traditional logistics, the
distribution manager (or purchase & supply manager) would design a transport service
demand structure that meets his needs optimal, and then give this to the market asking for
competitive service offers. This will change, and we observe today such changes starting in
the Chemical Industry: The management in the factory discusses with their transport service
suppliers about their economics against the needs of the manufacturer for supply material and
4
distribution of manufactured goods, and they come to a common optimum. Such optimum
may lead to increased use of rail capacity.
The retail and consumer goods business shows similar trends: The production managers wish
to demonstrate to their clients that they try their best to avoid carbon dioxide emissions and to
join the fight against climatic change. This strategy applies to products and to the distribution.
As rail transport definitively gives the better CO2 emission patterns, this demonstration
strategy will lead to increased use of rail freight transport, especially to intermodal rail/road
transport that provides the desired quality of transport (other than single rail car carriage). So,
we foresee logistics that will – more tan in the past – include a basic preference for rail
transport in lieu of road transport, of course as long as rail can meet the basic quality
requirements of current logistics: flexibility, reliability, speed.
Another basic change of logistics patterns might appear at the horizon: the 3 D production
scheme. James Saft reports on the possibilities of 3-D manufacturing: “… so called-3-D
manufacturing shows really stunning, if yet unproven, potential to reshape the way the world
makes things and to do so in a way that largely favours the United States over not just China,
but also Germany and Japan. The process, in which highly customizable products are literally
sprayed into existence using something not too dissimilar from an ink-jet printer, as opposed
to the old style of banging things over materials, plays really well to US strengths. While used
now mostly to make prototypes, the spread of 3-D manufacturing should make it less
expensive and more advantageous to put factories close to their markets. That would be a
huge contrast to the existing global supply chain, in which achieving small per piece price
advantages is so important that companies build plants that make parts for a single product all
over the globe.” [James Saft: Asia’s rise not certain to continue, in International Herald
Tribune, Sep 12, 2012, p. 20] This picture of global industry features does not only affect the
traditional organisation of manufacturing. It affects, similarly, the auspices of world trade,
especially that using containers. If manufacturing moves into the neighbourhood of
consumption, the future flows of cargo will mainly concentrate on raw material such as hard
coal and grain, i. e. products that use today mainly bulk transport means. Manufactured
products would need only neighbourhood carriage, and that would be performed by
commercial road vehicles. Possibly, such revolutionary logistic patterns will start slowly to
come into reality, and concentrate on specific half-finished products that are difficult to obtain
just in time. This would reduce the demand for express transport with small consignments.
1.3
Competition
1970-2010
The time period 1970 to 2010 showed a revolutionary new orientation in the theory of
transport economics, followed by a complete re-organisation of transport policy and transport
markets. The theory of transport economics before the 1960s followed the basic assumption
that transport markets cannot be efficiently organised by open access markets and
competition, but they need regulation, either through the private service providing industry
(such as shipping conferences, a cartel organised by marine carriers) or through governmental
actions (such as governmental ownership and monopoly operation of the national railway
system and national price and capacity control of long distance road transport and inland
waterway transport).
5
Economic Sciences started, mainly in the 1960s, to develop a new theoretical approach saying
that transport markets can be organised very efficiently by competition. The “special features
of transportation services” that have been said to create the need for price and capacity control
did not exist, or could be easily observed in other industries with full competition markets as
well. The basic proof for this was observation of a specific US market, the North South intraCalifornia trade and transport between San Francisco and Los Angeles: While normally road
transport and air passenger transport on such itineraries were services across a state border
line and controlled by Interstate Commerce Commission or Federal Aviation Commission, the
transport markets inside California did not show any regulation in price and capacity, and
functioned very well without market regulation.
In the following decades, de-regulation of long-distance transport markets inside the USA was
moved forward and capacity and price controls were removed. The Governmental agencies
concentrated on safety issues. This has promoted a general new organisation of the air
transport industry. The rail industry had greatly suffered by the competition of long distance
road transport. Railroad companies with a great tradition such as New Central Rail-Road and
Pennsylvania Rail-Road went bankrupt. Under the new liberalisation, the US railway industry
reshaped their services. They concentrated their cargo business. (Long distance passenger
transport had been given up earlier and was only performed by a governmental agency that
consumed considerably tax subsidies.) This concentration process left only a few trunk lines
in Canada and USA, and some minor local rail service companies providing antenna services.
Europe showed a similar development, but some 10 to 20 years later. The European
Commission had urged the national governments of the European Union member states to
liberalise their transport markets and to allow free operation of transport companies in the
European partner states. But the Governments of the member states refused. They wanted to
continue the control of transport enterprises as regards prices and capacity, and they were
fully clear that they could not exercise control on companies outside their jurisdiction.
Additionally, they wished to shelter their national state-owned railway system against
competition of third parties. So, the European debate was dominated by the principle:
“Liberalisation and opening of the markets to third country carriers can only be introduced
when the fringe conditions of competition have been harmonised.” It became clear that such
a harmonisation agreed by everybody in Europe never would happen.
Nevertheless, the member states of the European Union decided to open the markets for
transport services by the years 1990. It had been clear that this decision would lead to a
liberalisation at least for road transport and for inland waterway transport. Until that date, the
various lobbies of the carriers had successfully advocated a controlled commercial
environment that guaranteed to them minor competition and comfortable prices. But these
lobby organisations had overseen that the decision making competence had no longer been
located in the capitals of the European states but had migrated to Bruxelles. So, the long
distance road transport markets were liberalised and the end of comfortable pricing arrived.
Road transport prices in full truckload (FTL) markets went down by some 30 %. Low price
carriers, mainly from East Europe, spilled over the European markets. As a thumbs rule, some
50 % of all costs of long distance trucking is driver’s salary, and some 30 % in diesel fuel. A
driver from East Europe would cost less than 20 % of the amount of the wage level in Central
and West Europe, and the trucking industry made use of differing diesel fuel taxation in
Europe. A well equipped truck for long distance transport can accommodate some 1000 l
diesel fuel in its tank; this enables it to run more than 2000 km without the need for refuel.
They always will find some cheap fuel station during their operation, since some central
6
located countries (e. g. Austria and Luxembourg) offer low taxed diesel fuel. In addition, no
border crossing control of driving and rest hours for truck drivers had been established, so that
long distance operation with illegal driving hours became a common habit on European
border crossing routes.
Competition power of long haul road transport increased sharply making use of cheap labour,
tax loopholes and illegal work planning procedures, while rail freight lost.
Almost all European railways had been owned by the State and operated by a staff selected by
the Government. The reaction on the new liberalised environment in the transport markets had
been slow or zero. Most railways tried mainly to hamper the neighbour railway to offer
services using their network, and did not understand that the main competitor has been road
transport. So, railways lost considerably in market share, mainly in East Europe where the old
fashioned organisation of railways as a governmental agency was an even stronger issue.
Intermodal transport road/rail showed a very specific development. Such operation had been
established in the larger European countries such as France, Germany, Italy with their long
domestic distances in freight transport. The national intermodal carriers concentrated their
offer to national itineraries, because the competing road transport has been regulated and the
price level had been comfortable. Border crossing transport had been only partly regulated,
but the price controls had been inefficient, so that the revenue level was considerably lower
than in national transport. In consequence, intermodal operation did not focus on these low
price markets. When liberalisation and price decrease occurred, this pattern changed, and the
economics of long distance started to come into the focus. Intermodal transport road/rail
consists of some cost elements that are independent from the distance, as e. g. the intermodal
transfers at both ends of the journey. So intermodal transport road/rail shows decreasing costs
per km with growing distance. Since the 1990s international intermodal transport road/rail
increased much quicker than national. UIC reports for the period 2005 to 2011 an increase of
25,5 % of domestic intermodal transport, and an increase of 33,6 % of international
intermodal transport road/rail. [UIC: Combined Transport in Europe, Paris, December 2012].
2010-2050
Competition and open markets in transport will continue to exist in the next 4 decades. The
advantages of such patterns for the logistic industry and the competition power of the nations
have been so obvious that it cannot be expected that national policy steps back to regulated
markets.
Specifically the easy access to road transport markets will produce continuous oversupply in
capacity and prices at the very lowest level that can be realised. Specifically countries at the
remote part of the European Union, such as Portugal or Ireland, will try to argue for an open
market access of their truck fleet and a minimum road usage fee, since their trade will move
largely over networks of other states, and transit is no problem for them. On the other side, the
countries in he centre will try to limit free of charge usage of their road networks and
introduce road tolls that try to cover their expenses for highway building and maintenance. In
the end, there will be a compromise that reflects the varying economic interests and
competence in negotiating.
7
But some factors that may limit the competition power of long distance road transport will
develop or aggravate:





Mineral oil prices will continue to increase, and so will diesel fuel. The states will not
lower the tax burden on diesel fuel, but will try to close tax havens with low tax fuel
sales such as Luxembourg by negotiating a minimum fuel tax scheme for Europe.
Road tolls will be introduced in those countries that have today fee access to their road
networks.
Driver costs will considerably increase, at least for distances of more than 600 km. A
driver can go over 600 km within a legally limited 8 hour driving period. After that,
either a second driver must take over, or the truck has to stop for a rest period of 8 –
10 hours. The road operators can organise a relay system within a country, but such
systems are difficult to be installed in international journeys, such as Central Europe to
Spain or Portugal. It will be most difficult to relay personal and to organise reserve
workforce in a transit country with its own language, habits, taxation regime, etc. In
all cases, road transport will have limited access to economies of scale, and will show
a step upwards once the transport distance is greater than 600 km. This marks the
competition field mainly for rail freight transport.
Complex logistics offers will need highly trained and intelligent drivers. Such people
will scarcely be available on a working scheme being out of home all week and seeing
their family only Saturday night.
As road transport is widely regarded to be an environmentally problematic mode of
transport, some important actors will realise a commercial policy to avoid road
transport wherever the alternative rail or waterway transport offers a feasible
alternative.
Rail freight will continuously compete mainly with road transport. Competition of road
transport will continue to be tough, especially for distances of less than 600 km. Whatever
limits competition power of road transport will foster the main alternative rail transport.
But rail freight will see its own limits of competition ability:





Many European rail enterprises will continue to be owned and operated by the national
governments. The management of these railway operators will to try to please
politicians and trade union rather than clients.
Rail freight transport needs less energy that road transport; nevertheless, rail transport
will be affected by price increases for energy.
Rail will, similar as road transport, often need more sophisticated workforce; this
needs better training facilities and higher salaries.
A part of rail infrastructure will always need subsidy (hidden or open) by the state.
Politicians tend to prefer subsidising voters rather than long term investments in
infrastructure. So, it may be doubtful whether the state budget will provide the
necessary means for maintaining and enlarging rail infrastructure.
Until now, rail had been preferentially treated as regards noise emissions. This will
end, and this will create considerable cost burdens and political limitations to rail
operation.
8
1.4
Politics
1970-2010
Politics, at least in Europe, had often demonstrated a specific liking for rail transport. The first
reason for this had been surely the fact that states owned the railways, and so they were
specifically interested in the well being of their railway.
In addition, increasing road transport blocked capacity in the highway network and made
private car drivers (i. e. potential voters) angry. Furthermore, road transport using heavy 40 –
44 t truck (and often overloaded) abuses the highway network much more than private cars;
this relates mainly to the road surface and bridges. Frequent road transport by heavy vehicles
increases sharply the costs of highway maintenance, and politicians will not like this extra
burden to the governmental budget.
On the other hand, the road transport and truck manufacturing industry has very efficient
lobby organisations that tell politicians and the public that a commercially viable road
transport system is the basis for national wealth and well-being. Specifically high-end logistic
services are needed by a sophisticated industry, and such services can only be produced by
road operators.
This basic pattern change when intermodal transport road/rail came into operation. This way
of operation combined the flexibility and speed of road transport with the numerous
advantages of rail transport. Politics leant that lesson and started programs to promote
intermodality. The 1st program has been launched in West-Germany in 1968 when the Federal
Government installed a “250 Millionen DM Fond zur Förderung des Kombinierten Verkehrs
und des Gleisanschlussverkehrs”, a specific fund that spent 250 million DM per year over a 4
years period to subsidise intermodal facilities and private sidings. Other Governments
installed similar programs, at first Austria and Switzerland to limit road transit through their
country. Finally the European Commission joined that political preference and installed
promotion actions for intermodal transport.
2010-2050
All reasons for politics to prefer rail transport continue to be valid in the coming 40 years.
Politics will continue to try to shift cargo operation from road to rail transport. The climatic
change moves into the foreground of the discussion, since it is obvious that rail operation of a
given amount of cargo creates much less CO2 emission when using rail transport.
On the other hand we shall see that increasing rail transport will need increasing rail track
capacity, and this will create investment needs for public budgets, and such needs are disliked
by politics. In parallel, road transport and road vehicle manufacturing lobby will use their
power to persuade politics to limit their love for rail and to give money to the road industry.
An example for such trends can be observed in the current political approach vis-à-vis use of
electricity in transport: Several billion Euro tax money will be spent to generate systems of
road vehicles with electric traction – with questionable success aspects. Freight transport can
easily switch from diesel fuel road transport to electric rail freight transport in intermodal
operation, and this with most certain success aspects, but without any promotion (except
Sunday morning speeches) by politics.
9
2
The Railway Freight Services
2.1
Express, mail and LTL Transport
1970-2010
Railway express goods services using the baggage railcars attached to passenger express
trains had existed in Europe and North America until the 1960s. Post services carried letter
mail in specific railcars. Most of these transport services had been given up until 1970, and
whatever had remained was terminated in the following years. The only activity that
continued had been numerous theoretical studies about high speed passenger rail equipment
and its possible utility for express freight or mail services. In 2010, the entire express services
sector was served by road or air transport.
2010-2050
Certainly, the execution of further theoretical studies how to use high speed passenger trains
for express good and mail services will continue. As these service types are based on
extremely different market conditions (e. g. high speed passenger services are demanded over
the daytime, express and mail services over night) no major breakthrough shifting these
services to rail can be expected. Intermodal road/rail operations in the field of parcel, LTL,
mail and express goods services will come up and fill this gap partly.
2.2
FTL Transport in Single Wagon Load
1970-2010
Single wagon load services using private sidings had been the big looser in rail freight
transport of the recent 40 years. Some major clients in industry, such as the half-finished steel
products declined and reduced transport volume. Other industries realised logistic systems
with over night just-in-time delivery, and single wagon load could not meet these logistic
requirements. Many factories had been newly built without private rail sidings so that they
could no longer be served by railcar. Railway tracks with low usage were closed. As railway
is a business with distinctive economies of scale the decline of single wagon load services
becomes dangerous. The rail system has to operate a network of costly marshalling yards to
offer nationwide freight services. These yards need a minimum business to be commercially
justified. Shapr reduction in cargo volume might endanger the entire system.
2010-2050
In future, railway organisations will have to decide on the viability and commercial
justification of single wagon services. Some will come to the result that this business has to be
given up, others will organise new techniques and new business models to bring new life into
this logistic market. Points of gravity in these endeavours will be the introduction of
automatic railcar coupling and the automation of marshalling procedures. Both system
changes will have a doubtful realisation chance, because they need considerable investments
that might not be commercially justified. Such actions needs governmental input, either in
money or in credit guarantee, and it will remain doubtful whether governments are willing to
provide these funds. Governments might consider that such expenditure does not produce
sufficient new votes compared to other political promises in the next 40 years..
10
Some railways start in these days to look after operation models in this field that can generate
better efficiency and allow for a new market approach. Since such activities are not so much
connected to heavy investment needs with doubtful profitability outlook they are more
realistic. So we can expect that railways will, hopefully successful, realise new operation
models in single wagon load that might stabilise this rail freight market.
2.3
Block train Services
1970-2010
Block train services remained a core business of rail freight services. The main commodities
were hard coal, iron ore, grain, potash and mineral oil products. This feature can be observed
in Europe and in the Americas. Main effort of railways had been realising an increase of
efficiency of these services with longer and heavier trains, automatic loading and discharge of
railcars.
2010-2050
Wherever rail is today competitive in block train services, rail will most likely remain
champion in this transport market. There is no technical of commercial change in sight that
invites for the forecast that road transport can take over these markets. The only limitational
factor might be the building of high capacity inland waterways in new itineraries that might
take over part of the bulk transport today produced by railways. But the building of high
capacity waterways is very costly, and it might provoke political unrest in the building area,
so that we may easily foresee that such building will not take place in the next 40 years. So,
railways will continue to improve these services by more efficient operation, longer and
heavier trains, high duty traction, and increased efficiency in train loading and discharging.
2.4
Intermodal Services
1970-2010
Intermodal rail services produced the biggest revolution in rail freight services in the recent
40 years. In the early 1970s, European and North American railways entered this market
rather hesitating, regarding it as a marginal business.
The intermodal business set together of two logistic markets that developed under separate
commercial conditions:
The hinterland transport of containers by rail was a follow-up of containerisation, the
revolution in overseas transport. World container transport started to become large scale in the
1980s with a volume of 18 million TEU [Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit = general counting
unit in container trade based on a container of 20 ft. o 6,1 m length]. In 2010 the volume had
increased to more than 100 million TEU p. a. [Deutsche Verkehrs Zeitung, Hamburg, 10 DEC
1996, p. 13]. In the starting period in the late 1960s, the container operators in North America
and in Europe relied totally on road transport for hinterland operation. The first big container
operator, Sea-Land Services, Inc., has been established by an overland road carrier in USA.
Sea-Land Service followed in Europe its American model and operated its European
hinterland traffic similarly by road vehicles. When American Export Isbrandtsen Lines won
11
the contract for trans-Atlantic transportation of material supply for the US Armed Forces, they
were confronted with the fact that they had no container road transport facilities in Europe; so
they asked some European Railways for hinterland transport services, and these railways
(after some hesitation because of the unknown nature of this business) agreed to enter this
market. Today (i. e. in the year 2011) European Railways carry 9 575 760 TEU in container
hinterland traffic.
The second market segment that developed since the 1970s had been the continental services
road/rail carrying domestic containers, swap bodies, semi-trailers and accompanied
commercial road vehicles ( truck + semi-trailer, or road train). This market was first
developing in North America. The rail gauge allowed in large parts of the North American
rail network to place a full height semi-trailer in a flat railcar and move this combined unit
over long distances. The European railways tried to copy this concept but soon found that
their rail gauge did not allow for such type of operation. They tried to keep the combined unit
within the gauge limits, either allowing only limited height semi-trailer for combined road/rail
services, or they designed railcars with extreme small wheels and very low flatbed. Both
concepts failed partly: The logistics market did not accept limitations in semi-trailer height
(because of its inherent loss of loading space), and the extreme low-bed railcars had been so
complicated and costly to build and operate that only such railway companies that enjoyed a
considerable governmental subsidy could realise such traffic.
In the years to follow, the intermodal technology scenery separated between North America
and Europe:
The North American railways introduced the double stack technique, i. e. stacked 2 containers
one above the other into a rail car, making use of the generous tunnel gauge mainly in the rail
network in the centre and the west of North America. This technique allowed increasing
productivity per train, especially on long distances. Since the 1990s the transport of semitrailers on platform railcars did no longer grow, while the transport of containers in double
stack on well railcars created the increase of intermodal rail transport volume.
European railways could not offer features such as double stack transportation. Most railway
networks offer only a small tunnel gauge. Rail transport of 2 containers (each of them
maximum 2900 mm high) in double stack over long distances was not possible. Most trunk
lines in Europe are electrified. The height of the catenaries over rail surface creates a further
limit. And, even if all height problems have been solved, the double stack transport would
create a weight problem: A 60 ft. railcar in double stack transportation accommodates 6 TEU
container in capacity, and this will result in a total weight of maximum weight of 110 -144
tons, this being far too much vis-à-vis the maximum axle load available in most parts of the
European network. So, no European railway could introduce double stacking. Continental
trade in European intermodal rail/road transportation were
60 %
swap bodies and domestic containers,
30 %
unaccompanied semi-trailers,
10 %
full truck combinations together with driver.
While European railways had been rather successful in hinterland transportation of containers,
a new competitor appeared in the 1990s: container transport by inland waterway barge. Some
90 % of this business concentrated on the river Rhine, while the rivers Elbe, Rhône and
Danube experienced smaller business. River Rhine container transportation arrives at figures
between 1 500 000 and 2 000 000 TEU p. a. The market share of inland waterway transport in
hinterland carriage of containers had been
12
Port of Antwerp
43 %
Port of Bremerhaven
5%
Port of Hamburg
5%
Port of Rotterdam
45 %
[Inland waterway container transport in the Rhine valley, in Containers Magazine of BIC,
03/2012, p. 7].
By the year 2011, the European intermodal road/rail transport arrives at the following figures:
million TEU million tons
Domestic un-accompanied intermodal transport
International un-accompanied intermodal transport
Domestic accompanied intermodal transport
International accompanied intermodal transport
10,9
7,2
0,4
0,7
115,1
76,8
5,4
9,5
Total intermodal transport road/rail
19,1
206,8
Source: UIC 2012 Report on Combined Transport in Europe, Paris 2013
In North America, intermodal transport developed to a most important part of rail freight
operation. American Association of Rail-Roads counted in 1980 a number of 3 million
intermodal loadings, while this figure had increased in 2011 to a volume of 14 million
loadings [Source: Intermodal Association or north America]
2010-2050
The main trends that have been observed in the 1970-2010 period will most likely continue,
possibly with a somewhat more moderate growth rate. While world trade will grow with a
rate of 3 – 5 % p. a., international container transport will show the bigger growth rate of
approximately 4 – 6 % p. a., resulting in an overall increase of more than 500 % in that
period. Containerisation usually grows a little bit quicker than trade, because more and more
commodities that have been traditionally carried in specialised vehicles now move in
containers.
Growing container volumes in sea ports will lead to increased market share of railways (and
inland waterways if available) because railways offer clear economies of scale, i. e. more
productivity and more competitive pricing if the volume on a given itinerary grows.
In Europe, a new trend in intermodal road/rail transport has started: semi-trailers become the
fastest growing part of intermodal loadings. These semi-trailers are specific built for lifting by
crane or by rubber tired special equipment and carried in pocket wagons. The transportation
industry is observed to buy large quantities of such semi-trailers, so that their volume in
intermodal services will increase in the next future. A sharp increase in the demand side is
similarly expected: Intermodal transport road/rail shows better energy efficiency that road
transport, and the CO2 emission values are much more favourable. Specifically the consumer
goods industry and the retail industry will use this argument to show their engagement for a
better tomorrow. As long as intermodal transport is rather competitive in price and quality
compared to road transport, the industry will decide to organise its logistics with preference
for intermodal transport.
13
Semi-trailer transport on pocket railcar is currently limited to the rail networks in Central and
East Europe that provide a rather generous tunnel gauge. The networks in France, South and
Central Italy, Spain and Portugal cannot accommodate the combination of full height semitrailers on pocket railcars. The managers responsible for these markets will have to look either
for techniques that grant a lower platform height with railcars (and not absorb all efficiency of
rail operation), or for possibilities to enlarge some tunnels on most important trunk lines to
offer a better gauge.
Another trend in South Europe may be plausible: The connection between North Africa and
Europe (North/South) and between West Asia and the European Mediterranean States has
moved from conventional navigation to Roll/Roll off operation, based on semi-trailers that
provide the continuing hinterland services over the road. Some developments invite for the
idea hat a part of this trade might change to container operation with lift-on/lift off services.
One reason for such an idea is the fact that today almost all major ports in the Mediterranean
Sea are meanwhile equipped with container terminal facilities. In addition, a container
carrying ship of a given tonnage can carry 2 to 3 times as much paying cargo that a Ro/Ro
ship of a similar size. Ship operating costs are currently sky rocking mainly because of
increasing bunker oil costs parallel to decrease of quality of this fuel. Bunker oil had been
sold for less than 10 US$ per ton; its current price exceeds the 100 US$ per ton margin. If
some major trade routes in the Mediterranean Sea change from semi-trailer to container
transport systems, this could have a very positive effect on railway market share: Railways
cannot carry semi-trailers on railcars because of the limited gauge; but they certainly can
carry containers on railcars. Even high cube containers with a height of 2900 mm can be
carried when using low platform railcars, e. g. from the type multi-fret.
Summing up: In Europe and in North America, intermodal transport will become the most
important market for rail freight. Possibly, the main barrier to growth will no longer be the
market demand but the capacity restraints in the railway system.
14
3
The Railway Techniques
3.1
Locomotive – Traction
1970-2010
In 1970, the technique of steam locomotives had been completely abandoned both in Europe
and in North America. The European railways had introduced a widespread program of rail
network electrification providing all heavy used tracks with catenaries. The diversity of
different electrification had increased: French rail had added a second electrification in the
more modern parts of its network (1500 V DC in old network, 25 000 V 50 Hz AC in modern
network), and Denmark introduced electrification using 25 000 V 50 Hz AC while its
northern and southern neighbours had installed 15 000 V 16 ⅔ Hz AC. The European
patchwork of electrification systems continued.
The same is true for signalling and electronic speed and braking distance control systems that
are mainly installed with the locomotives. Most systems are based on national technical
solutions.
Diesel traction had two main techniques: diesel electric systems (in USA and some European
railways) and diesel hydraulic systems (in some other European railways).
Passenger services had been operated partly by locomotive driven trains, and partly by
railcars with in-built electric traction. The 1970-2010 periods showed a passenger transport
development that moved towards enforced use of railcars with in-built electric traction. The
concept to have multi-purpose locomotives that might operate passenger trains in the daytime
and freight trains during the night period had been left partly.
Another development related to the industrial production system of locomotives: Almost all
bigger countries in West and Central Europe had their own locomotive (and railcar) building
industries and national railways placed their orders almost entirely with national
manufacturers. Basically, the railway administration with its own technicians would develop
the idea of a new locomotive, some prototypes were built and tested, and (if tests were
successful) an order for some 50 – 100 locomotives was evenly distributed with the various
producers in the national industry. While road freight transport as a system that carried
(including short distance operation) 5 – 10 times as much cargo as rail freight was supplied by
a car manufacturing industry with some 7 international manufacturing groups in Europe with
mass production schemes, rail locomotive production was scattered on small sites all over
Europe so that a new locomotive almost was “hand made in Europe”. This pattern
disappeared completely during the 1990s periods. Locomotives became a mass production
item. Manufacturers would develop new locomotives, produce them in mass production lines
and sell them all over Europe. But the diversity of electric traction systems and signal control
system remained and created a hurdle to mass production and to border crossing operation.
2010-2050
The next 40 years will see some important technical and operational change in rail traction.
The standardisation of signal and brake control systems will continue and facilitate border
crossing operation and production on European level. Electronic devices will continue to
facilitate the switch from one electric power system to the other.
15
Diesel engines might be partly replaced by LNG driven engines as natural gas might easily
drop in price while diesel fuel tends to increase in price.
Noise emission will become a major concern, and this will influence construction of noise
isolated of motors. The design of wheels and suspensions will care for less noise, as well.
Energy efficiency will remain a top issue, and locomotive construction will aim at even better
energy efficiency.
The need for multi-purpose locomotives, being designed for passenger and/or freight
transport, might decrease, and future locomotives will be more streamlined for single use.
3.2
Railcars and Load Carriers
1970-2010
The basic design of freight railcars did not change very much over the last 40 years. This was
inter alia due to the system of single railcar production systems that included connectivity of
each railcar with each other railcar as a paramount item. Any revolutionary change in railcar
design and construction would have disconnected the system.
The technical development aimed at railcars with greater loading capacity and easier loading
and discharge facilities.
The quick development of intermodal transport led to the design of special railcars for this
mode of transport. One basic design was the pocket railcar, a platform design railcar with a
pocket between the bodies that could accommodate the wheels of a semi-trailer. These
railcars can carry either containers and swap bodies or semi-trailers. In parallel, industry
developed plain platform wagons adapted to the standard container lengths with a loading
length of 40 ft (12,2 m) and 2 axles, or 60 ft (18,3 m) or 80 ft. (24,4 m) with 4 axles. Later,
industry developed articulated railcars with 3 bogies (i. e. 6 axles) and a 60 ft. + 60 ft. or a 60
ft. + 1 semi-trailer of 13,6m length loading schemes.
The upcoming political debate on noise reduction led to a discussion how to progress with this
in the field of rail freight. Railcar industry offered new concepts of braking and wheel
suspension. These systems were not enthusiastically welcomed because they would only be
useful in shuttle train operation, i. e in operation of a fix coupled train that is composed only
of such noise reduction railcars and that practically never is changed to be mixed with
traditional railcars. Most railway undertakings do not wish to operate their freight system
under such a limitation. So they prefer to convert their existing railcar fleet over the time to
less noise emission features.
2010-2050
The situation that hampers technical breakthrough in freight railcar development will
continue: As long as single railcar traffic forms a major part of rails freight business, each
railcar must be designed for connecting to each other freight railcar. Any basic change must
be applied to the entire fleet of railcars, or not at all. Even if a revolutionary change of the
entire railcar fleet can be financed and managed, the problem of the transition time period will
remain. Railway management will have to research in solutions how to introduce technical
change into railcars without obstructing rail freight operation.
16
Possibly, new techniques can be considered, in the first place, for railway markets that are
served by block trains and/or shuttle services. The introduction of basically new techniques in
railcars can be easier organised in such services. This relates to bulk transport (hard coal, iron
ore, mineral oil products), high volume exchange between automobile manufacturing sites,
and intermodal transport.
The items that must be taken into consideration for such technical improvements are, amongst
others, the following:

Light weight railcars allowing for carrying more payload on a given train with limited
gross mass.

Articulation of railcar coupling replacing traditional buffer coupling allowing for
carrying higher volumes or more intermodal loading units on a given train with limited
maximum train length.

Railcars with less noise emission allowing for operation in difficult environments (this
will mainly relate to brake and to wheel suspension).

Electronic brake control facilitating control of breaking distance, and optimising
railcar wheel adhesion during breaking, and reducing longitudinal pressure during
breaking.

Electronic monitoring of maintenance needs avoiding emergency stops en route. .

On-board electrical power supply in railcars to allow for efficient temperature
controlled logistics (a reefer container as standardised in ISO 1496-2 needs nothing
else but a 380/400 V DC power supply given on a standard socket).
17
4
The Rail to Client Interface
4.1
Private Sidings
1970-2010
The importance of private sidings has decreased constantly over the past years. While the
existence of a private siding was a condition sine qua non for any major production site in the
first half of the 20th century, this has greatly changed. Many new production and logistic sites
have been established without private siding. Many private sidings and their antenna
connection to the main rail network have been removed. An example for this development can
be given: Until the 1950/1960s, State owned Postal services used railcars for the mid-distance
transport of letter mail and parcels. This was a fact all over Europe and North America. In the
1990, German State Post had been privatised and re-organised. The re-organisation included a
nation wide network of post & parcel centres that are connected to each other. All these
centres had been new built, and practically none of these new centres had a rail connection.
Some European States subsidised the building and maintenance of private sidings to improve
the competitive power of rail freight. But many operators continue to reclaim that building,
maintaining and operating private sidings is a complicated and costly activity. We can
observe that the logistic competence for this operation is dis-appearing.
2010-2050
Any technical and organisational improvement of private siding operation needs to be
smoothly harmonised with railway planning to improve efficiency and quality of single railcar
traffic operation. As private sidings will be, most likely, managed by the rail network people,
while single railcar operation will be managed by operation people, continuous management
of rail traffic network and operation in one commercial entity will be helpful. If politics
decide to separate network and operation, the management of both need excellent cooperation to overcome eventual differences in technical and organisational approach.
4.2
Intermodal Terminals
1970-2010
A wide network of intermodal terminals, connecting rail, road and – partly – inland waterway
has been established in Europe and in North America. Intermodal terminals have been built,
and are today operated, by railway undertakings, by intermodal carriers, and by local logistic
business.
Techniques of intermodal transfer have greatly improved over this period. This relates to
hardware, mainly gantry cranes and reach stacker, and to computerised planning, operation
and control.
2010-2040
As intermodal transport road/rail foresees a massive growth in capacity demand of intermodal
terminals the network must be adapted to this growth. This needs excellent co-operation
between network planning in road and rail and terminal planning. Unfortunately, such co18
operation has not been established by the various infrastructure administrations. Political
activity tends often towards sudden programs in budget cuts, or additional governmental
spendings to stimulate the economy. Most of these activities will influence road building
programs, and rail infrastructure improvement and maintenance. Political planning
organisation has to take care that such “in between interfaces” such an intermodal terminal
building and enlargement activities are not squeezed by inconsistencies.
Technical changes in terminal operation will relate to
4.3

Efficiency increase and automation in lifting and replacement operation

Automatic identification of intermodal loading units

Interlinking of IT systems of intermodal carriers, intermodal terminals, and their
clients
Rail Freight Stations
1970-2010
When rail freight operation started in the 19th century, many larger cities established rail
freight stations. Consignments were trans-loaded from box type freight railcars to downtown
delivery vehicles, at first horse driven, later road vehicles with diesel motor.
Most of these stations had been closed until 1970. The role of these stations has been widely
taken over by intermodal terminals.
2010-2050
The re-establishment of rail freight stations for the transfer of single consignments between
rail transport and local delivery seems very unlike.
Frankfurt am Main, in March 2013
Dr. Christoph Seidelmann
19