Intermediation in Five Inclusive States: Estimates of Financial Performance and Growth Strategies Jonathan Wareham Rich Klein Dept. of Computer Information Systems J. Mack Robinson College of Business Georgia State University Atlanta, GA 30302-4015 Tel: 404 463-9293 Fax:404 651-3842 wareham@acm.org rklein@gsu.edu September 29, 2001 Intermediation in Five Inclusive States: Estimates of Financial Performance and Growth Strategies ABSTRACT The theoretical literature concerning commercial intermediation is surveyed to develop a framework of five, inclusive intermediary states. Data collected on 58 electronic healthcare portals are used to test hypotheses concerning intermediation states, growth strategies and firm profitability, in a sample representing both traditional and electronic intermediaries. The study finds a positive relationship between higher states of intermediation and profitability, as well as finding a higher frequency of acquisitions as growth strategies in higher intermediary states. 1.0 Introduction The topic of electronic intermediation has received a significant amount of attention since the widespread acceptance of the Internet. The seminal work of Malone, Yates and Benjamin (1987) proposed that reductions in coordination costs would permit a greater use of market mechanisms as predicted by transaction costs economics. This paper also suggested that the movement toward electronic markets would eliminate traditional middlemen in the supply chain. Hence, the concept of disintermediation has attracted considerable interest from the academic community (Bakos, 1991; Benjamin and Wigand, 1995; Tapscot, 1996), in addition to its wide-spread popularity as an underlying business philosophy for the wave of dot-com business start-ups that were actively funded until the April 2000 fall in the NASDAQ stock market. However, this research seeks to gain greater understanding of the fundamental role of electronic intermediaries in contributing toward firm performance, i.e., profitability, as well as for how firms should expect their role as an intermediary to develop over time. Brousseau (1999), following Spulber (1996, 1999), delineates five distinct functions, or states of intermediation, specifically: information management, transaction securitization, liquidity, logistics management, and insurance. Using this typology, this research first seeks to understand how these intermediation strategies relate to profitability. Given the assumption Page 1 that these five stages are both hierarchical and inclusive, that is, firms at higher or later intermediation stages possess the capabilities available at the lower or earlier levels, the second focus of this research is an examination of how intermediaries evolve through time. In an effort to address these two issues, this paper is organized as follows: After a brief review of prior intermediation-focused research, Section 2 introduces the healthcare industry and electronic healthcare portals as a focal point for studying electronic intermediation. In Section 3, the concepts of commercial intermediation and corporate diversification are discussed, the research hypotheses are formulated, and the choice of dependent and independent variables motivated. Section 4 presents the research method employed in data collection and analysis, reviews the estimation methods, and presents the relevant findings. Section 5 contrasts these findings with the industry level observations and evaluates the generalizability the results for other industry sectors, as well as exploring implications for theory and practice. 1.1 Previous Research The concept of intermediation has generated interest in both academic and business communities. This idea was, paradoxically, raised in the Malone, Yates and Benjamin (op. cit.) paper, where the movement to electronic markets was seen as facilitating new opportunities for firms to intermediate as market providers. The expansion of novel business models such as Amazon and eBay ushered in terms such as “cybermediaries” (Sakar, Butler and Steinfeld, 1995) or “infomediaries” (Hagel and Singer, 1999). Underlying these terms is the idea that third-party entities can serve to aggregate, filter, and profile information in a novel manner and use this information to coordinate sales and supply chains to extract economic rents. Other scholars, such as Baily and Bakos (1997), argued that new roles for electronic intermediaries included roles such as trust provision, information aggregation, information exchange and brokering, where Bakos (1998) argues that electronic markets require intermediaries for matching, transaction facilitation and mitigation of moral hazard. Chircu and Kaufman (2000) provide an in-depth review of this literature. Page 2 However, the electronic markets hypothesis has found limited or ambiguous support in empirical studies (Hess and Kemer, 1994; Hitt 1999), and because of the fact that few Internetdriven businesses based on pure info-mediation have demonstrated long term viability, there is now a general consensus that the electronic versus traditional markets dichotomy has less theoretical or empirical utility than originally believed. While we do not discount the significance of electronic channels, the low nominal frequency with which such purely electronic businesses exist does not warrant their continued segregation in theoretical and empirical studies. In fact, as our study will indicate, many of the enterprises construed as eCommerce infomediaries have, either in origin or through evolution, assumed the roles that have traditionally been found within all forms of commercial intermediation. Hence, this study is posited on the idea that intermediaries exist, the majority of which assume a combination of electronic and traditional channels. Many purely electronic intermediaries have assumed traditional intermediary functions through organic growth, joint ventures or acquisition, whereas many traditional intermediaries have developed electronic channel capabilities in parallel. In fact, it is the co-evolutionary paths of both intermediary types that are a focus of this study. Accordingly, we turn to an industry that is very information intensive and has experienced a great deal of growth in both purely electronic as well as traditional intermediary forms – healthcare intermediaries. After a brief survey of recent developments in the North American healthcare market, we thereafter present a review of commercial intermediation theory and formulate hypotheses concerning intermediary growth strategies, financial performance and firm age. These hypotheses center around questions of how intermediation strategies relate to profitability, and, secondly, how do intermediaries evolve through time. The hypotheses are tested with data collected from 58 individual firms. 2.0 The State of Healthcare in the Year 2001 The U.S. healthcare industry has recently been marked by ever increasing numbers of capitated plans, decreases in fees for service plans, declines in the staff-model, reductions in provider Page 3 reimbursements and growing emphasis on reducing the overall costs of delivering care. More recently, managed care organizations have been faced with dissatisfied consumers who are demanding more open access to provider networks, driven in part by the explosion of Internet usage and growing availability of medical content from portals like WebMD and DrKoop.com. Consider that in 1999, 41 percent of U.S. adults, or some 74 million people, logged on to the Internet, with 54 percent, or some 40 million people, doing so for health or medical reasons (Weber, 1999). In response to this consumer demand, many managed care organizations are raising premiums in order to finance these open networks that allow for less control and contracting, which have been the traditional sources of cost reductions for these organizations. Not surprisingly, these increases have been met with backlash from businesses and the Federal government. Healthcare costs are expected to rise from 14 percent of gross national product to 17 percent, or $2.1 trillion, by 2007 (Duncan, 1999). Given increasing globalization, businesses are finding it harder to compete with European firms that are already enjoying significantly lower healthcare costs. U.S. managed care organizations, and healthcare providers in general, are being forced to: (1) increase the level and quality of service afforded to consumers, and (2) increase their operating efficiencies to achieve cost reductions. Virtually all major healthcare organizations are investing heavily in reducing the wait-time for patients, improving billing processes and accuracy, improving scheduling efficiency and trying to demonstrate clinical quality. All of these initiatives are directly aimed at improving the level of service afforded to members or patients, and have the added benefit of contributing to cost reductions. Managed care organizations grew over the 1990s, achieving dramatic cost efficiencies through tight controls and competitive contracting with care providers. Since these organizations are unable to raise prices when faced with ever increasing pressure from both the private and public sectors, the challenge is now to capitalize on the cost-saving potential of industry-wide standardization and increased adoption of electronic data interchange opportunities through e-commerce. As the IT focus in the healthcare industry, like many others, shifts away from Year 2000 compliance, the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) sets forth new Page 4 mandates for IT professionals in this field. HIPAA provides mandates for the standardization of administrative and financial transactions and code sets within the healthcare industry. In many ways these mandates will be the impetuous for change in an industry that has been traditionally slow to adopt technological innovations (Raghupathi, 1997). Opportunities for information systems providers in the healthcare industry are tremendous as organizations struggle to meet HIPAA requirements by 2003, with the electronic commerce initiative and the Internet at the forefront. In general, the healthcare industry offers an optimal industry segment for a study in intermediation in that it is: 1) highly information intensive; 2) has experienced significant growth in both electronic and traditional intermediaries; 3) offers a broad, yet cohesive, portfolio of intermediary functions that can be identified, mapped and transcribed to commercial intermediation theory independent of the sector. Hence, after first discussing representative cases of electronic healthcare portals, we will turn to commercial intermediation theory and develop hypotheses concerning intermediation state, growth strategies and profitability. 2.1 Electronic Healthcare Portals In early December of 1999, healthcare giant McKesson and its software subsidiary, McKesson/HBOC, announced two initiatives toward establishing the firm as a market leader in the evolving Internet healthcare race, currently dominated by a recent Healtheon Corporation and WebMD merger (Egger, 1999). In their first move, McKesson acquired Abaton.com, a privately held developer of Internet-based clinical applications for use by physicians, providing among other things the ability to prescribe electronically. Additionally, McKesson signed a three-year licensing agreement with Claimsnet.com, which processes medical claims for physicians via the Internet (Miller, 1999; King Jr., 1999). McKesson and Healtheon/WebMD are positioning themselves to provide market participants with the ability to connect to doctors, medical institutions, consumers, and payers with comprehensive products to manage information, communications and transactions – all via the Internet – contending that the medium is the “platform common to everyone” (Egger, 1999). Moreover, the information Page 5 needed by the various participants, i.e., doctors, hospitals, insurers, pharmacies, and patients, can easily and efficiently be moved via the Internet (Egger, 1999; Cole-Gomolski, 1999), saving various market participants what has been speculated to be unnecessary inefficiencies and unproductive overhead costs (Downsend, 1999). In early 1999, Healtheon estimated that some 30 billion transactions are being completed each year utilizing paper, phone and/or facsimile (Egger, 1999). 3.0 Commercial Intermediation Despite the fact that commercial intermediation constitutes over 25% of the U.S. GDP, with roughly two million firms (Spulber, 1999), the subject has not commanded a great deal of attention from mainstream managerial and economic theorists. Most contributions in this area are predominantly from finance (Lewis, 1995; Berlin, Mester and Pennacchi, 1998; Rousseau and Wachtel, 1998). However, there are several publications which have focused on the intermediation of goods and services (Hackett, 1992; Bentacourt and Gautschi, 1993; Michael, 1994; Spulber, 1996, 1999; Brousseau, 1999). It is generally accepted that intermediaries play two roles (Brousseau, 1999): (1) A purely informational role whereby intermediaries are perceived as entities gathering, sorting and arranging information about both parties’ plans in order to match them, or (2) an economic matching role where the assumption is made that intermediaries do not have the capability to perfectly match producers’ and consumers’ plans. In the first case, information matching is sufficient, and the business model is often based upon the intermediary seizing a margin of the transaction amount. In the second case, the inability to perfectly match producers’ and consumers’ plans requires the intermediary to hold inventories and assume a risk-bearing partnership in the subsequent exchanges, thereby facilitating economic matching. The popular press has promoted an extreme argument that the provision of complete information will enable consumers and producers to match plans and deem intermediaries as superfluous third parties. Hence, the growth of the Internet has been viewed as determinant of, if not synonymous with, disintermediation. However, even if one assumes that the astronomical Page 6 task of matching all transaction parties’ optimization plans is tractable, additional coordination challenges may persist. First, information asymmetries constitute more than just asymmetries in knowledge of plans (Ackerlof, 1970; Milgrom and Roberts, 1987; Stiglitz, 2000). Agents in a decentralized economy know different things, ranging from skill sets to the Hayekian “knowledge of the particular circumstances of time and place” (Hayek, 1945, p. 524). These asymmetries in knowledge enable the realization of economic rents. In addition, a great deal of consumption is not simply a function of endogenous needs assessment and explicit plans, but is largely dictated by exogenous factors such as the weather. Governments, for example, stockpile food reserves for many reasons, including the acknowledgement that circumstances outside the control of the farmer can result in a bad crop yield and consequent food shortages. Second, even in the instance that all plans could be made available to all parties, there is no reason to assume that they would match. Production plans are often dictated by economies of scale. Production and logistic cycles take time, and are often much longer than the typical needs assessment and fulfillment cycles of consumers. Business models based upon the creation and fulfillment of wants in the present moment in a specific geographic location, augmented by the instantaneous or compulsive behavior of consumers, would have little validity without the assistance of intermediaries to coordinate needs within local markets. Finally, asymmetries in skill, experience, general and specific knowledge of time and place will cause difficulties in assessing the amount of return obtainable in any given exchange. This leads to the classical problems of moral hazard and adverse selection (Milgrom and Roberts, 1987) that are very often mitigated to some degree by the participation of a credible third party intermediary. While this argument is not exhaustive, it does serve to suggest that intermediaries do more than merely coordinate information. Moreover, it implies that changes in the cost and character of information that we have witnessed in the last decade are not only reducing the aggregate level of intermediation, but are spawning new forms of intermediaries which may be fulfilling very traditional processes of commercial intermediation with unique methods or in novel combinations. Page 7 Hence, a review of the classical roles of commercial intermediation may aid understanding of the new class of intermediation currently witnessed in the healthcare sector. While unanimous definitions of commercial intermediaries are difficult to extract, Brousseau (1999), following Spulber (1996, 1999), delineates the following typology in which intermediaries ensure adjustments in terms of availability, volume and quality, as well as securing transactions and liquidity in five inclusive states: 1. Information Management: as an aggregator and filter of information, they support the producer’s need to determine demand as well as the consumer’s assessment of supply levels and capabilities. 2. Transaction Securitization: controlling and guaranteeing the products delivered and assuring payment to producers, third party intermediaries often mitigate adverse selection and moral hazard problems via the endorsement of the transaction with their own reputation or legally binding guarantee. As a subset, some other form of value added service as well as a reconfiguration of the bundle of goods and services is often performed. 3. Liquidity: through the extension of credit to both sides of the transaction, intermediaries facilitate the systematic clearing of markets despite possible liquidity constraints in both ends of the channel. 4. Logistics Management: performing the basal tasks of sorting, packaging, storing, stocking and transportation of goods from production locations to intermediate warehouses to consumption sites. 5. Insurance: by purchasing production before consumer demands are expressed, they provide producers with some stability and security of demand for their production. While not a guarantee, the intermediary is able to aggregate demand curves and offer some insurance that production can be disposed of. Likewise, some insurance is offered to the consumer that the goods will be available, insulating them from fluctuations in levels of supplies. These states are the result of what has been observed in the economy. Theoretically, they can be viewed as a function of the classic endogenous and exogenous problems caused by bounded rationality, adverse selection and moral hazard, information asymmetry and uncertainty, as determinants of the decision to enter an intermediated transaction by an economic agent, i.e., either consumer or firm level decision making (Rose, 1999; Spulber, 1996, 1999). We categorize the antecedent determinants of intermediation choice according to uncertainty, , and Page 8 preferences, . Define as the set of factors governing uncertainty that is perceived market and environmental uncertainty. These include, but are not limited to: information asymmetry, opportunism, moral hazard, adverse selection and perceived and real volatility of supply (Milgrom and Roberts, 1987). Define as the factors related to consumer preferences and sensitivities, which include, but are not limited to: temporal sensitivity, immediacy and spatial needs, aversion to search and coordination costs (Williamson, 1975, 1985), as well as individual risk aversion (Rose, 1999; Spulber, 1999). The choice to conduct a transaction through an intermediary is independent for each transaction and will be a function of the product and service being transacted; moreover, it is independent from the customer’s preferences and determinants of uncertainty leading to an infinite number of outcomes. Figure 1: Determinants of Choice in Intermediated Exchanges Determinants of Uncertainty Hypothetical Decision Path B Insurance Logistics Management B Liquidity Management A Hypothetical Decision Path A Transaction Securitization Information Management B A Determinants of Preferences Consider that some customers have a greater need for local inventories (temporal or spatial sensitivities), have higher aversion towards risk and fear of transacting with unknown entities, or have decreased access to market search mechanisms, giving them a high sensitivity Page 9 to search and coordination costs. In this case, the aggregate set of preferences could influence consumption decisions that follow Hypothetical Decision Path A in Figure 3. Here, individual preferences can yield a higher propensity to engage in intermediated exchanges. Similarly, higher levels of perceived uncertainty for any market can also influence the propensity to engage in intermediated transactions, as demonstrated in Decision Path B. For example, the perception that markets are characterized by an unusually opportunistic culture, or alternatively, that information transparency is low, would yield agents more likely to transact through intermediaries in an effort to mitigate the problems of moral hazard and information asymmetry. Greater levels of environmental instability would also increase the propensity for intermediated exchanges. The products and/or services being transacted also determine intermediary type, where purely information-based products would have a higher frequency in earlier, or lower, states of intermediation, although not exclusively. Implicitly, products with greater economic value impose a greater risk of moral hazard and can therefore also increase the propensity to engage in intermediated exchanges. As an example, consider the need for regulated exchanges to govern the conduct of financial transactions. This framework applies to both the firm and consumer level decision-making. The depiction is clearly stylized, and decision-making differences as related to agent type (consumer versus managerial) might be a topic well suited to future research. 3.1 Hypothesis Formulation Intermediary State and Profitability This framework has several unique implications. First, the structure is hierarchical and inclusive, such that organizations at the higher levels of intermediation possess all of the abilities detailed at the lower levels, although direct employment in business activities is not requisite. For example, the highest state, insurance, implies the legal ownership of goods and services, which hence implies corresponding roles of logistics management, liquidity, transaction securitization, as well as information management. Thus, the higher the level of intermediation, the greater the proportion of the value chain that is under the intermediary’s Page 10 control, and the greater the level of resulting economic rents. Accordingly, we formulate Hypothesis 1. H1: The profitability of intermediaries is positively related to the state of intermediation. While the assumption of inclusion may not hold in some instances, we did not find any firms in our sample for which this assumption was inconsistent. We discuss the consequences of relaxing this assumption later in the analysis. Corporate Diversification The concept of inclusive intermediary states implies that firms assume greater aggregate levels of potential and realized functions in the economy. Greater intermediation is thus somehow related to traditional concepts of diversification, although not synonymous therewith. The literature concerning corporate diversification is both extensive and inconclusive. The large diversified concerns that grew out of the 1970s were often justified on those arguments from financial economics that emphasized the reduction of systematic risk (Jensen, 1986; Lubatkin, 1987; Chatterjee and Lubatkin, 1990), stabilizing cash flows (Amit and Livnat, 1988), or as a mechanism in the market for corporate control that replaces inefficient managers with more competent management (Jensen and Ruback, 1983). However, the resulting wave of down- or right-sizing that ensued in the 1990s was often justified on arguments of decreasing returns to management (Gurbaxani and Whang, 1991) that claimed the optimal level of managerial bureaucracy had been exceeded for many organizations. Other studies pointed to the negative cross-subsidization of low-performing, unrelated segments (Jensen, 1986; Berger and Ofek, 1995), or to the general consensus that investments in capital markets could diversify corporate risk more effectively than managerial governance. Financial economics literature has been accused of being “rearward-looking” in its emphasis on risk management and its use of diversification to improve the efficiencies of existing operations (Karim and Mitchell, 2000). In contrast, strategic management literature has tended to be more forward-looking, arguing that organizations must engage in ongoing Page 11 changes of their operations and strategic positions due to changing competitive environments. However, even in a so-called “forward-looking” view, the empirical literature on diversification has been mixed. Some studies have found gains from related diversification (Singh and Montgomery, 1987; Wernerfelt and Montgomery, 1988), where others have found gains from unrelated diversification (Chatterjee, 1986). Unsurprisingly, other studies have found little conclusive evidence that either related or unrelated diversification increases firm performance (Bradley, Desai and Kim, 1988; Lubatkin, 1987; Lubatkin and O’Neill, 1988). We argue that the level of diversification is positively related to the level of intermediary profitability. This position is based upon the idea that firms diversify through time as financial resources grow, independent of the intermediary state. Increased profitability permits the managerial freedom to expand operations in both related and unrelated areas. As even related functional diversification would be considered a greater financial and managerial risk, such positions are easier to take when profitability in normal operations is unconstrained. H2: The profitability of intermediaries is positively related to the level of diversification. Firm Age, Pure-Play Strategies and Public Listing Organizational studies have shown ambiguous results concerning the effects of age on business survival and profitability. While some studies have demonstrated support for the “liability of newness argument” by finding declining rates of bankruptcy or dissolution with greater firm age, particularly in manufacturing (Stinchcombe, 1965; Carroll and Swaminathan, 1982; Freeman, Carroll and Hannan, 1983; Evans, 1987), other studies have found the opposite effects, especially in the service sector (Barnett, 1990; Baum and Mezias, 1992; Amburgey, Dacin and Kelly, 1994). Likewise, studies have been inconclusive concerning the relationship between firm age and aggregate survival rates. Other studies have examined the effects of firm age on modes of exit. Mitchell (1994) found that older businesses enabled prospective buyers to better evaluate the companies’ track records, where Chang and Singh (1999) found that greater age was correlated with the development of idiosyncratic assets that prevented them from obtaining high market prices in Page 12 the case of a sell-off. Hence, even in the instance of an exit decision, empirical evidence remains inconclusive concerning the relationship between firm age and exit mode. Intermediary types that have emerged from the Internet comprise a major portion of our sample. As many of these younger firms are struggling to obtain positive profitability, we hypothesize that the older, established businesses are more profitable than the younger startups. H3a: The profitability of intermediaries is positively related to firm age. Likewise, we believe that established industrial enterprises will have greater profitability levels than firms which are recently launched with the express intent of capitalizing on the capabilities offered by the Internet. While we have limited theoretical justification for the hypothesis, we refer to the high frequency of bankruptcy and dissolution that has characterized Internet start-ups. H3b: Profitability is negatively related to intermediaries with an Internet pure-play strategy. The relationship between size and organizational profitability has been a major focus of managerial studies as well (Evans, 1987; Baum and Mezias, 1992). A variety of measures have been used to assess firm size, including market share, absolute sales volume, market capitalization, employees, and asset evaluations. While the factors attributed to firm size and profitability are complex and interdependent, general arguments suggesting that larger firms are more profitable point to natural barriers to entry, scale economies, greater financial resources, as well as advantageous access to managerial talent and capital markets (Chang, 1996; Chang and Singh, 1999). We assume that firms that are publicly listed have higher capitalization rates than otherwise, which enables increases in marketing expenditures, strategic and operational investments, financial longevity, as well as incentive structures implicit in a shareholder wealth-maximization paradigm that emphasizes earnings growth and return on Page 13 equity. Hence, we hypothesize that the companies in our sample that are publicly traded will have greater profitability than those that are not. H3c: Profitability is positively related to intermediaries that are publicly traded. Intermediary States and Growth Strategy Our second research question focuses on how electronic intermediaries evolve through time. A survey of the popular press will indicate that many of the businesses with electronic channels have a particularly high frequency of announcements concerning acquisitions, joint ventures and alliances. While we have no indication of whether these announcements are more frequent than in the normal population of firms, or whether this is merely symptomatic of a greater level of press savvy requisite for pre- and post-IPO companies, the observation does provoke a question of the nature of intermediary evolution, and how these strategies are related to different intermediary states. While much of financial economics literature addresses why firms diversify (Jensen and Ruback, 1983; Jensen, 1986; Lubatkin, 1987; Amit and Livnat, 1988; Chatterjee and Lubatkin, 1990), strategic management literature has focused on the question of why a firm would choose one growth strategy as opposed to another (Yip, 1982; Chatterjee, 1990; Chang and Singh, 1999). Economic and strategic literature has generically categorized growth strategies in broad terms, often as acquisition, organic or internal development, or some type of joint venture or alliance (Yip, 1982; Chatterjee, 1990; Chaterjee and Wernerfelt, 1991). Several authors have argued that acquisitions serve to minimize the issues of bounded rationality and time compression diseconomies that constrain the content and speed with which people learn (Simon, 1945; Dierickx and Cool, 1989). This makes acquisitions preferred to internal development as a mode of growth. Hence, if the goal of acquisitions is to secure the tacit knowledge and organizational memory that reside in an organization’s structure via the routines that the organization maintains (Nelson and Winter, 1982; Karim and Mitchell, 2000), the question remains as to under what circumstances such acquisitions are most appropriate. Yip (1982) argued that market relatedness does not reduce the cost of entry via acquisition, as Page 14 the market for corporate control sets the price of the acquisition. Therefore, firms tend to enter related businesses via internal development, where unrelated areas are entered via acquisition. Chatterjee (1990) furthered this argument by claiming that the more closely related the two markets are, the fewer the requisite complements to the firm’s own physical and knowledge base assets. Hence, internal development may reduce entry costs in a related market. In contrast, growth into a related market via acquisition is more likely to entail the purchase of redundant resources. Accordingly, growth via acquisition is more attractive in unrelated markets. However, attempts to verify the hypothesis that firms are more likely to enter unrelated businesses via acquisitions have thus far been unsuccessful, and the aggregate empirical literature concerning growth strategies remains inconclusive (Karim and Mitchell, 2000). We argue that, as the intermediation state becomes more complex and demanding in terms of physical capital, tacit and process-based knowledge and organizational memory, the barriers to removing constraints to individual and organizational learning are most easily overcome via acquisition. Accordingly, it is assumed that intermediaries that can perform the functions of logistics management, liquidity management and legal inventory ownership will often choose to develop these capabilities through acquisition, as these capabilities frequently require significant capital investment and process capabilities. Alternatively, it is assumed that intermediaries that perform functions which require less capital investment, such as information management, would attempt to extend their breadth through a higher frequency of joint ventures, licensing agreements and alliances. Accordingly, we formulate hypotheses H4a and H4b: H4a: A higher relative frequency of acquisitions is positively related to higher states of intermediation. H4b: A higher relative frequency of joint ventures is positively related to lower states of intermediation. Page 15 While we do posit a higher frequency of acquisitions for higher intermediary states, intuition does not necessitate that the inverse holds as well. Intermediaries with higher states of intermediation could just as easily opt for organic growth in instances that the management felt were opportune, given the ambiguous results currently in the literature concerning growth strategies. Hence, we posit that a relationship exists between the state of intermediation and the relative frequency of internal growth. However, we refrain from defining the direction of the relationship. H4c: A relationship exists between the relative frequency of organic growth and the state of intermediation. 4.0 Data Collection and Analysis Method This study has been conducted in two phases. The first round of data collection was completed in the Fall of 1999 through the Spring of 2000. In the second phase, we returned to the data in the Summer of 2001 in order to expand the size of the sample, reassess the evolutionary patterns, and award specific attention to developments within the sector after the stock market fall in April of 2000. Because this study is exploratory, our definition of portal was broadened to include any type of Internet presence that aggregated the products or services of multiple organizations within the healthcare sector. Thus, individual medical supply companies with Internet sites that exclusively represent their own products and/or services were not included. A many-to-many relationship between suppliers and customers was required to fulfill the definition of an intermediary (Spulber, 1999). By some estimates, there are over 17,000 web sites with some form of medical content (Fox, 2000). Consequently, a sample of 58 organizations cannot be considered comprehensive. However, a thorough scanning of the media was made to identify the most significant members of the sector in order to form a representative, theoretical sample (Eisenhardt, 1989). Our preferred form of data collection was personal interviews with senior and middle management (Creswell, 1997; Mason, 1996; Miles and Huberman, 1994). The interviews were semi-structured and guided by the assumption that there were two types of companies entering Page 16 this venue - either new startups/joint ventures that are seeking to build a completely new client base as a first mover, or existing companies in more traditional areas of pharmaceutical distribution or insurance claims processing that are seeking to expand into an Internet lead business by leveraging an existing client base. With the former organizations, we sought to illuminate the characteristics of the medical industry and the technological environment that motivated the move to a web-intermediated business model. Why did the management believe that such a proposition was feasible? What antecedents presented the opportunity of considerable gains in this sector (e.g., fragmentation, high search costs, etc.)? With the latter group of organizations, we focused on the rationale behind their movement into an intermediary-based business model. How did they intend to leverage their existing business in this different media? Could they identify specific exogenous forces that motivated their expansion beyond their traditional venue? In the instance that a personal interview was not possible, secondary data was employed, including information collected from web sites, annual reports, newspaper articles, and third party analyses such as stock analysts and venture capital media (Miles and Huberman, 1994). Although the secondary data does not permit an exploration of the managements’ assessments of risks and opportunities at the same level as personal interviews, it does offer historical documentation concerning companies’ development, economic environment, diagnostics of the business model, as well as cross-validation of managerial opinion. Finally, in an effort to ensure that our results are consistent with the assessment of experienced specialists within the healthcare management domain, we validated the results of the analysis with members of the School of Hospital Management within our own institution. 4.1 Analysis In an analysis of the type of services offered by the healthcare portals, a number of broad, generic functions were identified. Traditional industry classification schemes such as SIC codes were consulted, but did not offer sufficient granularity or relevance for our analysis. Our classifications included functions such as content aggregation, patient and records Page 17 management, insurance claims processing and supply chain management and procurement portals. Our classification typology was developed in the first phase of the data collection process. In the second phase, we attempted to reevaluate the typology and concluded that the classifications retained explanatory utility in the period after the stock market fall in April 2000. However, we did add one additional class in the second phase – consumer retailing. Definitions of each type are presented in Table 1. These functions are not exclusive, meaning that most subjects in the sample offered multiple functions. Page 18 Table 1. Functional Categories of Medical Healthcare Portals Function Description Consumer content aggregation Aggregation of medical content aimed towards consumer education, prevention and empowerment Professional content aggregation Aggregation of professional content to educate and improve the competencies of medical professionals, including nurses and administrative management Consumer retailing Sale of products to consumers, such as health supplies, vitamins and pharmaceuticals Patient management Tools designed to facilitate the effective management of patient booking, case data and diagnosis Records management Digitization and management of patient records Practice management Administration and analysis tools for financial administration of small, medium and large practices Physician career management Professional recruiting, credential renewal and verification Insurance claims processing Clearing and processing of insurance claims, verification of codes and correct payment, revenue stream analysis Supply chain management Integration with chosen vendors of medical supplies and pharmaceuticals for purchasing and inventory management Procurement portals Domain-specific markets for the bid/offer of medical supplies and fixed assets Application service provision Asp aggregators that serve to consolidate a portfolio of applications and services on a single platform 4.2 Profile of Sampled Healthcare Portals Out of the 58 companies that constitute our sample, 44.2% are publicly listed, predominantly on the NASDAQ stock exchange. 55.2% were categorized as Internet pure-plays, while the remaining 44.8% are companies that existed prior to the growth in Internet-based business models. The average age of the companies is 5.8 years, where 27.6% of the companies were Page 19 above this average. The companies that existed prior to the Internet were mainly involved in insurance claims processing, practice management, and records management, whereas the younger companies are characterized by higher concentration within consumer and professional content aggregation, asset procurement markets, and physician career management. 4.3 Dependent Variable – Profitability The dependent variable for Hypotheses 1 through 3 is the level of average profitability of the healthcare portal through the 3 years of 1998 to 2000. The variable was registered as an ordinal measure of net profit: less than negative 10%; greater or equal to negative 10%, but less than negative 5%; greater or equal to negative 5%, but less than 0%; greater or equal to 0%, but less than 5%; greater or equal to 5%, but less than 10%; greater or equal to 10%. The brackets were used for several reasons. First, given the relative youth of this type of business, a traditional binomial logistic estimation of survival would not adequately capture many of the companies that are currently struggling for their existence. A large portion of our sample has previously had stock traded well above 20 dollars per share, but are now traded at only a fraction of these prices. Second, while it was possible to obtain exact profitability information on 53% of our sample, estimates for the remainder of our sample were obtained through interviews (34%) or estimation from publicly available material (13%). In the instance of an interview, the respondents were offered brackets so they were not compelled to disclose exact profitability information. In addition, these brackets offered sufficient granularity for the study while permitting the freedom requisite when estimating profitability. Given the lack of maturity in the medical portal sector, other dependent variables were considered such as market shares or relative growth rates. Intuitively, the high level of investments required for establishment of brand recognition and infrastructure may make short-term profitability a biased indicator of successful, long-term growth strategies. However, as many electronic intermediaries have not survived the initial rounds of venture funding, the issue of short-term strategy and short-term survival is appropriately pertinent. Page 20 4.3 Dependent Variable – Intermediation State The dependent variable for Hypothesis 4 is intermediation state. This construct serves as an independent variable in Hypotheses 1 through 3, and the dependent variable in Hypothesis 4. As our second main research question is how intermediaries evolve over time, a variable that captures the development of relative intermediary growth is appropriate for testing hypotheses concerning growth patterns. 4.4 Independent Variables Our focal independent variable is an intermediation index, based upon the Spulber (1996) framework previously discussed. For each company, it was necessary to assess what level of intermediation it had assumed, and give it an ordinal score from one to five. Unfortunately a one to one mapping between our functional typology and intermediation level was not possible. This problem can be illustrated in the following manner. Take, for example, a procurement portal. In their simplest form, procurement portals perform some type of market aggregation and economic matching. In the instance that the portal does nothing other than match buyers and sellers, it would receive a score of 1 for information management. However, should the portal take a more active role in facilitating the transaction, accepting payment, and coordinating the delivery of the goods, a score of 2 for transaction securitization would be applied. Likewise, should the portal extend credit to either side of the transaction, a score of 3 would be awarded. If the portal assumed legal ownership of the inventory, provided warehousing and logistics, a score of 4 or 5 was awarded accordingly. The index was measured either at the time of exit of the company or at the final date of measurement. Another problematic example is consumer retailing. If the portal simply provided some type of link or inclusion into the activities of another entity via a joint venture or marketing alliance, then no function other than information management exists. Should the portal actually hold the inventory, in legal and accounting terms, then higher levels of intermediation were registered. Insurance claims processing is another function we frequently encountered in this market sector. In some cases, insurance claims are processed based upon a variable rate per line Page 21 item or claim, whereas in other instances, the claims can be bought at a discount, offering the equivalent of a forward credit. The first case would be awarded a score of 2 for transaction securitization, and the latter instance would receive a score of 3 for liquidity management. Other independent variables include publicly traded, a binary variable equal to 1 if the company is listed on any major stock exchange, 0 if not. Likewise, Internet pure-play is also a binary variable that assumed a value of 1 if the company was launched with the express intent of capitalizing on the capabilities of the Internet, and 0 if the company had an existing industry function independent of the Internet. Age is a continuous variable that measures the period between establishment of the company through the point of data collection. Diversification index is an index we developed based upon our functional typology. We utilized the Berry-Herfindal index defined as one minus i 1, I Pi2, where Pi is the proportion of sales in the ith business (Neter et al., 1996). However, as SIC codes, which are normally used, did not offer sufficient granularity for this analysis, we substituted our own functional typology of 11 functions of medical healthcare portals, measured and time t at either the point of exit or at the date of measurement. The event of diversification was registered when the firm entered a different functional area. Growth strategies were registered in the data collection process. Each time a company expanded its functional capabilities, we registered the instance as either organic growth, growth by acquisition, or growth by joint venture/alliance. Typically, growth was defined as the entrance of the company into a new functional area as defined in our typology. However, in many instances, companies made acquisitions of companies in areas already included in the company’s current portfolio of functions in an effort to expand market share. Hence, all cases where significant growth was achieved via acquisition, joint venture, or internally were registered. Many of the larger, mature entities had over 30 instances of some kind of growth, where the younger, smaller companies had less than five registered instances. In order to normalize the data, we transformed the nominal counts to relative frequencies. Hence, a company could have 30% of growth via internal/organic means, 40% via acquisitions, and 30% via joint venture or alliance (Seddighi, Lawler and Katos, 2000). Page 22 4.5 Estimation and Findings Hypotheses 1, 2 and 3 were tested using the following ordinal logistic estimation where the dependent variable has categorical values based upon the values of ordinal properties. In this instance, ordered response logistic regression is considered an appropriate technique for analysis (Chu and Anderson, 1992; Levin, 1998; Neter et al., 1996) and is based on the methods developed by McCullagh (1980, 1998). ORL gives estimates that are unbiased, and at the same time allows estimation of a parsimonious model that is readily interpretable (Pan and Chi, 1999). Scale variables are not appropriate due to their inconsistency in the intervals between the extreme levels (less than negative 10% and greater or equal to 10%) and the remainder. Hence, the simplifying assumptions on which basic linear regression relies are not satisfied, as it is highly sensitive to the manner in which categories are defined. We use a negative log-log function due to the fact that the categories in the dependent variable are not normally distributed. The negative log-log is appropriate when the lower categories of the dependent variable are more probable (SPSS, 1999) as was the case with our sample, where 46.6% of the companies were categorized in the lowest profitability category. We test the significance of the entire OLR model with the model log-likelihood chi-square, which is analogous to the multivariate F-test in linear regression testing the null hypothesis that the coefficients are zero (Neter et al., 1996). Further, for each estimate, we conduct a two-tailed significance test of the Wald statistic, which is the ratio of the estimated coefficient to its estimated standard error and follows a chi-squared distribution. Accordingly, we write the likelihood function as log log 5 1inindex 2 log age 3divindex 4 pubtrade 5 pureplay As in binary logistic regression, this function can be estimated using log-likelihood techniques, and estimates of can be used to test the probability that various state characteristics significantly affect the probability of higher levels of profitability. Unlike OLS, estimates of cannot be interpreted as marginal effects, but rather the marginal impact these Page 23 variables have on the probability of higher levels of the dependent variable, in this case profitability (Neter et al., 1996). The ordinal logistic regression analysis of profitability determinants is presented in Table 2. The model is significant (chi-square for covariates significant for P<0.001). The Cox and Snell, Nagelkerke and McFadden pseudo R-square statistics are acceptable for the exploratory nature of this research at .437, .469 and .214, respectively. A discussion of the results of Hypotheses 1 through 3 follows. Table 2. Determinants of Profitability from 1997 to 2000: Ordinal Logistic Regression Model Intercept Only Final -2 Log Likelihood 155.319 122.007 ChiSquare Df 33.312 5 Pseudo R-Square Cox and Snell Nagelkerke McFadden Significance .000 .437 .469 .214 Parameter Estimates Threshold Profit=1 Profit=2 Profit=3 Profit=4 Location Intermediation index Log(Age) Diversification index Non-publicly traded Non-Internet pure-play Estimate 3.591 4.693 5.775 7.472 Std. Error .806 .907 1.015 1.234 Wald 19.857 26.750 32.403 36.676 Significance .000 .000 .000 .000 0.651 1.306 (0.163) 0.427 0.658 .268 .433 .133 .456 .475 5.905 9.075 1.496 0.876 1.196 .015 .003 .221 .349 .166 Hypothesis 1 posited that the profitability of healthcare intermediaries is positively related to the state of intermediation and to the level of diversification. The coefficient for the Page 24 intermediation index is positive, although the nominal level is moderate at 0.651. Hence, while the hypothesis can be supported with a high statistical significance at .015, the economic significance of the coefficient is less dramatic. The findings suggest that there is a moderately positive relationship between intermediation state and profitability, establishing support for Hypothesis 1. Hypothesis 2 found no statistical support, with significance of .221. As previously mentioned, we observed that many of the companies we studied had an abnormally high degree of growth activity. This could be due to the fact that the sample had a significant number of such start-ups, which, after the endowment of either private or public funding, had a limited period of time in which to establish a viable business model and defendable competitive position. We explicitly attempted to limit the amount of correlation between the intermediation level construct and the diversification index. Hence, the results suggest that higher profitability is attainable through a focused position at higher intermediary states, not merely the acquisition of functional areas for the sake of diversification alone. Hypothesis 3 explores the relationship between intermediary profitability, firm age, Internet pure-play strategies, and public listing. As expected, the coefficient for age is positive and very significant at .003. However, the value of the coefficient is low, even for logarithmic form, suggesting that while there is a positive association between firm age and profitability, the effects are moderate. Hence, we find weak support for Hypothesis 3a. Hypothesis 3b suggests that a negative relationship exists between intermediaries that were founded on an Internet pure-play strategy, and profitability. This hypothesis finds no support. While the direction of the coefficient is as expected, the statistical significance is .166. Hypothesis 3c suggested that a positive relationships exists between intermediaries that are publicly listed and profitability. With a significance of .349, this hypothesis finds no support. Thus, we were not able to find any statistically or economically significant relationship between profitability, Internet pure-play strategies and public listing. However, we did find a weak relationship between profitability and firm age. Intuitively, the selection forces that permeate the sample are sufficient to explain this relationship. Page 25 Our second research question relates to how intermediaries evolve over time, that is, what is their primary method of growth? Hypothesis 3 was tested by using intermediation index as the dependent variable, in an attempt to explore how the frequency of different growth strategies varies with different states of intermediation. As there is no scalar relationship between the intermediation states, that is, the differences cannot be expressed numerically, only ordinally, we chose to apply ordinal logistic regression in the test of Hypothesis 4 as well. log log 4 1organic 2acquisitio ns 3 joinventures 4divest The coefficients are estimated by maximizing the likelihood function. The ordinal logistic regression analyses of intermediation state and growth strategy are presented in Table 3. The model is significant (chi-square for covariates significant for P<0.001). The Cox and Snell, Nagelkerke and McFadden pseudo R-square statistics are relatively high at .639, .703 and .425, respectively. A discussion of the results of Hypothesis 4 follows. Table 3. Intermediation State and Growth Strategy: Ordinal Logistic Regression Model Intercept Only Final -2 Log Likelihood 116.594 57.451 ChiSquare Df 59.143 4 Pseudo R-Square Cox and Snell Nagelkerke McFadden .639 .703 .425 Parameter Estimates Page 26 Significance .000 Threshold IntIndex=1 IntIndex=2 IntIndex=3 Location Freq. organic growth Freq. growth by acquisition Freq. growth by joint venture Freq. divestitures Estimate .357 2.399 6.559 Std. Error 1.505 1.561 2.201 Wald 0.056 2.362 8.884 Significance .812 .124 .003 .412 3.142 (1.575) 27.432 1.484 1.537 1.675 10.316 0.077 4.177 0.884 7.072 .781 .041 .347 .008 Hypothesis 4a suggested that a higher relative frequency of acquisitions is positively related to higher states of intermediation. The coefficient for frequency of acquisitions is positive at 3.142 and statistically significant at .041. The test supports our expectation that higher intermediation states require more sophisticated capital investment, process knowledge and organizational routines that are easier to obtain through acquisitions. However, our complementary Hypothesis 4b, that a higher relative frequency of joint ventures is positively related to lower states of intermediation, did not find support. Where the direction and size of the coefficient are in agreement with expectations, the statistical significance was not even close to the 10% level at .347. One possible interpretation is that where acquisitions are the preferred growth method for higher intermediary states, joint ventures and alliances are equally employed by all types of intermediaries resulting from the lower access costs to this growth form. Our final hypothesis, that a relationship exists between the relative frequency of organic growth and the state of intermediation, found no support. Not only is the coefficient limited at .412, there is no statistical significance at .781. An explanation similar to that for joint ventures, that the growth strategy may be viable for all intermediary states, may be applicable. Interestingly, we included the registration of divestitures in the regression, although we did not hypothesize about its role in growth strategies. This coefficient was extremely high at 27.432 and highly significant at .008. This suggests that, not only are companies with higher intermediary states more likely to employ acquisitions in growth strategies, they are even more likely to use divestitures in the instance that refocusing of the companies’ strategies becomes necessary. This result is not counterintuitive to our logic. We expect higher intermediary states to be more highly capitalized organizations due to the sheer level of investment needed to Page 27 provide the infrastructures. Those companies adept at employing acquisitions for growth would feel equally comfortable utilizing divestitures, as both methods require similar access to venture capital or investment banking networks, legal and accounting support. 5.0 Discussion The results of the analysis are summarized in Tables 4a and 4b. Our hypothesis that profitability is positively related to higher intermediary states found strong statistical support, although the coefficient was moderate. This suggests that intermediary types that perform the more capitalintensive functions, such as supply chain management, transaction management and inventory management, are more profitable than intermediary types that perform the roles of information management and economic matching. Empirically, this is consistent with the general lack of success witnessed within content aggregators and B2B exchanges that emerged from the electronic commerce boom of 1998-2001. While we did find some support for a positive relationship between firm age and profitability, we found no relationship between diversification levels, Internet pure-play strategy or public listing. Table 4a.Variables and Relationship to Profitability Variable Expected Identified Intermediation state + Positive Diversification level + None Age + Weak Internet pure-play strategy - None Publicly listed + None Table 4b. Variables and Relationship to Intermediation State Variable Expected Identified Freq. of acquisitions + Positive Freq. of joint venture - None Freq. of organic growth ? None Page 28 Consider the paths of two similar content aggregators, DrKoop and WebMD. DrKoop has made significant and costly attempts to institutionalize their brand through the use of the former Surgeon General’s reputation for integrity and through expensive marketing endeavors, including restrictive agreements with AOL and Walt Disney-Go.com that call for DrKoop to make huge payments in return for being the exclusive health content provider to the two companies' web properties (Yates, 2000). Yet, despite the arduous attempts at first mover branding and advantages, the position of content aggregator in isolation has proven very difficult to maintain, such that the company is projected to run out of cash in late 2001, despite several attempts for continued financial support (Yates, 2000). Whereas DrKoop has withheld its strategy of information management, WebMD, by its merger with Healtheon, has broadened its activities into higher intermediary states such as insurance claims processing and supply chain management, and has a much sounder revenue profile as a consequence. While content aggregation can be viewed as provision of an asset in its own right, the general challenge faced by pure content providers is that the assets provided are often not requisite to the operations of the business. Thus, the most central platform for marketing supplementary content may in fact be the applications facilitating the revenue stream, such as the insurance claims processors. Through management of the revenue stream, intermediaries can logically extend liquidity management through the purchasing of accounts receivables forward. Moreover, logistics functions, central to the metabolism of the organization, also command a central role in the needs for intermediation. In this instance, companies like McKesson/HBOC, which control large networks of pharmaceutical and medical supply provision, also realize advantages in marketing complementary products of their own and associated companies. Likewise, we have seen similar difficulties in the many emergent B2B portals that offer little other than economic matching. Generating sufficient interest in these markets can be prohibitively difficult in the case that the markets do not choose to perform some functions of transaction guaranteeing and clearing, liquidity management, and market making/insurance by physically or legally managing inventories. While information aggregation and the governance of opportunism, bounded rationality and moral hazard are requisite in any economy and, Page 29 hence, secure a role for intermediaries, the ability to perform such tasks normally increases as a function of intermediary state. Our analysis of intermediation states and growth strategy found a positive relationship between the frequency of acquisitions and intermediation state. However we could not identify a negative association between the use of joint ventures and intermediation states, nor any association with organic growth levels. Surprisingly, we did see a highly significant coefficient with the use of divestitures. This evidence suggests that higher intermediation states are characterized by a greater need to acquire existing capital assets, tested organizational routines and business processes. Moreover, such resources are best acquired under a single governing body, rather than running the risks implicit in a bilateral governance agreement such as a joint venture. Finally, we do see that the higher intermediary states are more likely to use divestitures as a method of exit strategy. This suggests that the propensity to use acquisitions may also be a function of other characteristics that yield the organization adept at accessing investment banking networks the legal and accounting support requisite for such transactions. 5.1 Contributions for Theory and Practice This analysis offers the following contributions. First, it is one of the few empirical investigations of intermediation theory outside the discipline of finance. By mapping intermediation states directly onto a specific, cohesive sector of the economy, it offers a unique engagement and validation of the theory’s explanatory utility. Moreover, the variance in the sample of intermediary states offered by the inclusion of Internet pure-play content aggregators compared to established brokers and wholesalers offers a unique opportunity to statistically test the robustness of the theoretical constructs of all types of intermediaries. This contribution is particularly poignant given the recent demise of many electronic commerce businesses and the current disillusionment that the business community has expressed with the proselytizing that has characterized the sector. 5.2 Limitations Page 30 While we could not find any evidence to the contrary in our sample, the assumption that intermediation states are inclusive may not hold in some sectors of the economy. Feasibly, intermediation states may be discrete alternatives rather than inclusive, ordinal outcomes. Future studies could focus on the interdependence of such relationships and explore the degrees of inclusion within intermediaries in different sectors of the economy. Whereas the majority of companies in this sample displayed a high propensity to announce growth activity through press releases and the Internet, a great deal of the internal growth that occurred in the sample may not have been registered. This is due to the fact that, where groundbreaking developments that have some marketing value may be publicly announced, much of the significant growth that is routine and less dramatic may not be applied in a marketing or public relations venue. While we attempted to control for this by defining growth as any significant advancement into or within a functional area, the potential for delineation and identification variance must be acknowledged. 6.0 Conclusion This study has developed a framework of five, inclusive, commercial intermediary states, and used it to formulate hypotheses concerning intermediary states, profitability and growth strategy. Using data collected from nearly five-dozen electronic healthcare portals, the study identified a positive relationship between intermediary state and profitability. Increased profitability at higher stages of intermediation suggests that these firms perform the more capital-intensive functions such as supply chain management, transaction management and inventory management, command greater economic rents as a function of greater proportions of the supply chain under their domain, as well as increased yields due to greater capitalization levels. The lack of success found for pure content aggregators and B2B exchanges within the health care industry supports the notion that it is difficult to maintain profitability performing solely economic matching and information management, as has been depicted in the case of WebMD versus Dr. Koop. The increased use of acquisitions as growth strategies at higher intermediation states may demonstrate a greater need to acquire processes realized through greater capital Page 31 investment, tested organizational routines, and business processes. 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