USA - A bumper grain harvest
27 May 2013
TRADERS in the grain market remain focused on the North American
corn crop, which is in the last few weeks of its planting season.
Good weather could lead to what is being forecast as a bumper crop
– perhaps the biggest since 2009-10. The US Department of
Agriculture has forecast that US farmers would be paid 32 per cent
less for corn this year if the record harvest is collected.
It would also be bad news for Australian farmers. A bumper
international corn crop would depress the prices local farmers reap
for their biggest grain export – wheat.
"It's what we call a weather market," said Ron Storey, the head of
Australian Crop Forecasters, of the current state of grains trading.
Corn and wheat prices have been following each other in the current
market, as they are both used as feed substitutes for poultry, pork
and beef. As a result, the US corn crop is of great interest to
Australian wheat farmers.
In Australia, NSW wheat futures for January 2014 fell by 3.5 per cent
to trade at $275.5 a tonne on the ASX.
It was the biggest one-day fall since February 4.
The US Department of Agriculture releases its next update on the
state of corn plantings on May 20 (US time).
Mr Storey said while weather is always a big driver of the
international grain market, the forecasts for the US were receiving
heightened attention.
He said the USDA's numbers could show that planting levels are at
50 per cent, or even higher. Two weeks ago, corn plantings were at
less than 10 per cent due to bad weather.
In an interview ahead of the new planting numbers, the manager for
global trade at the US Grains Council, Kevin Roepke, said the level of
planting could be as high as 60 per cent, according to Bloomberg.
Senior agricultural economist at ANZ Banking Group, Paul Deane,
said if the crop plantings are significantly below 60 per cent at this
stage, it would likely lead to a fall in corn prices.
On average, 80 per cent of the US corn crop is normally planted by
this time in the season, however, even at this late stage, a huge
harvest is possible. More than 30 per cent of the crop can be planted
in a week. As with all internationally traded commodities, higher
production levels reduce the prices paid for Australian producers. Bad
news for North America and Black Sea region producers – the two of
the biggest exporters – is good news for Australian farmers.
USA - Corn planting well underway
27 May 2013
After a sluggish start to US corn plantings, last week saw an
estimated 43% of the total forecasted crop planted, assisted by a dry
period and modern planters with improved planting capacity.
This takes the total area planted to 69 million acres, or 71% of the
projected total (Steiner Daily Livestock Report).
Proceedings may slow slightly for the final 29% due to forecast rain,
however, planting are likely to be completed in the coming weeks,
projected to total 97.3 million acres.
While there has been ongoing speculation that farmers may switch
out of corn into soybeans, evidence remains mixed. There has
recently been a rally in soybean prices, which may tempt some
growers to switch crops; however, logistically it would be quite
challenging this late in the planting season.
USA - Grain market manipulation
through the media
27 May 2013
Private analytical firm Informa Economics expects farmers will plant
455,000 fewer acres of corn than USDA suggested in its Prospective
Plantings report in March. Soybean acreage is likely to increase 1.2
million acres, while spring wheat acres are expected to be 300,000
acres fewer.
"Warm and dry weather last season allowed for rapid planting
progress and low prevented plantings. This year's weather has not
been as cooperative with a wet, cool start delaying spring row crop
plantings," the report stated. "There appears to have been some
switching from corn to soybeans (primarily in Minnesota, North
Dakota and the Mid-South), which is consistent with delayed
plantings, but elsewhere the survey indicated that farmers have yet to
give up on acres intended for corn or soybeans despite the slow start
to spring planting."
Informa estimates farmers will plant 96.8 million acres of corn as
compared to March's USDA estimate of 97.28 ma. North Dakota
leads the decline. Farmers there are expected to plant 400,000 fewer
acres of corn. Minnesota farmers will plant 300,000 less, while
Mississippi and Arkansas growers are each expected to sow 150,000
acres less.
The declines will be partially offset by higher corn plantings in Illinois,
expected to increase by 300,000 acres, and Missouri, up 200,000.
DTN Analyst Todd Hultman thinks Informa's corn acreage estimate is
on the high side.
"I don't have any problem assuming that the Corn Belt will get planted
just fine this year, except I think that North Dakota, Minnesota and
Wisconsin will lose more corn acres than Informa shows here," he
said. "Last Monday, the USDA showed 18%, 18% and 14% planted
in those three northern states. With this week's rain in Wisconsin and
southeast Minnesota, some progress was probably made in North
Dakota and Minnesota, but DTN's five-day forecast has 1-2 inches of
rain expected for the Dakotas, Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.
That will add to further delays in these three states that have a limited
growing season.
"I would not be surprised to see another 400,000 to 800,000 of corn
acres (total) reduced from those three states in the June acreage
report," Hultman said.
Informa expects soybean acreage to total 78.3 ma, up from March's
USDA estimate of 77.13 ma. That's 1.1 ma higher than last year with
the largest increases seen in the Western Corn Belt. Minnesota will
plant 450,000 more acres to soybeans, drawing away from spring
wheat and corn, while Nebraska will plant 300,000 more acres than
previously expected. Illinois' 300,000-acre gain in corn translates to a
300,000-acre soybean decline.
"We are not believers in the big corn-switching-to-soybeans theory
here at DTN," Hultman said. "I just think that the USDA's initial
soybean planting estimate was too low given the current environment
of strong commercial demand for available soybeans. 78.3 million
acres is more in line with estimates from earlier this year, before the
planting intentions report."
Double-crop soybean acres are expected to increase 7% from last
year to 6.3 million acres, Informa's report stated...
Kolkata tea sale offerings up
Kolkata, May 26:
Last week at Sale 21, the total offerings (packages) at the three North Indian tea auction
centres at Kolkata, Guwahati and Siliguri were 1,99,836 compared to 1,40,301 in the
corresponding sale (No 21) last year, according to J. Thomas & Company Pvt Ltd, the tea
auctioneers.
The offerings at Kolkata comprised CTC/dust 66,396 (47,994), orthodox 20,033 (8,939)
and Darjeeling 3,867 (3,475).
The figures for two other centres, handling mainly CTC/dust, were Guwahati 89,424
(51,700) and Siliguri 20,116 (28,193).
Good demand for CTC teas. Medium and non-liquoring sorts tended easier.
Orthodox: Good demand. Whole leaf and broken grades sold at fully firm to dearer rates.
Fannings were irregular.
Darjeeling teas: Whole leaf grades witnessed useful enquiries. HUL was selective.
Brokens sold at firm rates while fannings were dearer.
Pepper gains on buying support
Kochi, May 26:
Ever since the introduction of futures trading on the IPSTA platform, prices have moved
up and all the active contracts closed higher last week.
Karnataka pepper was offered at Rs 331-333 a kg and 48 tonnes of pepper arrived every
day, they said.
Pepper from Pulpally and Battery in Kerala’s Wayanad district was also coming and sold
at Rs 336-337. Domestic demand has started picked up following withdrawal of strike by
Maharashtra traders which had stopped trading in pepper for about a month.
There has been conflicting reports about the crop in Karnataka. Some were projecting it
as 35,000 tonnes while others claimed it to be 25,000-30,000 tonnes. Similarly, the
production in Kerala would be 20,000-25,000 tonnes while in Tamil Nadu, 6,000 tonnes.
In Tamil Nadu’s Pattiveeran Patti, much of the pepper produced there are used for
converting into white pepper because of heavy and bold berries, they said.
Indian parity in the international market has dropped to $6,500 a tonne (c&f) due to fall
in the currency last week despite the rise in futures prices. But, the overseas buyers were
seen waiting hoping the prices would fall further.
Vietnam is reported to have shipped out around 55,000 tonnes of pepper already. They
may be exporting more in the coming weeks on fear of the early arrival of Indonesian
pepper in the market in July, they said. Last week, prices increased on the IPSTA trading.
June, July and Aug contracts went up by Rs 557, Rs 512 and Rs 453 a quintal
respectively to close on Saturday at Rs 35,225, Rs 35,275 and Rs 35,325.
Total turnover moved up by 408 tonnes to 522 tonnes. Total open interest was up by 23
tonnes to 23 tonnes. Spot prices remained unchanged at Rs 33,600 (ungarbled) and Rs
35,100 (MG 1) on matching demand and supply last week.
Mixed trend in Kochi tea sale
Kochi, May 26:
A mixed trend persisted for almost all varieties of tea at the Kochi tea auction. In sale no:
21, the offer in CTC dust category was 11,49,500 kg.
The market opened Rs 3-5 dearer. The prices appreciated further with longer margins of
Rs 5-10 as the sale progressed.
Clean well made teas witnessed strong feature following export enquiry, the auctioneers
Forbes, Ewart and Figgis said.
However, the orthodox dust category remained barely steady and tended to ease.
Exporters were the main stay for the product. The quantity on offer was 2,050 kg.
In the best CTC dusts, PD varieties quoted Rs 105-125, RD grades ruled at Rs 106-126,
SRD fetched at Rs 111-133, while SFD stood at 113-150.
In the leaf sales, the quantity offered in orthodox grades was 1.03 lakh kg.
The market for select best high grown brokens and whole leaf was steady to firm.
Others were irregular and tended to ease. Corresponding fannings appreciated in value.
Tippy grades were barely steady to tending lower.
Whole leaf from the same origin was steady to firm and fannings appreciated. Secondary
brokens were irregular and lower and witnessed some withdrawals.
Of 1.07 lakh kg on offer in the CTC leaf grades, the market for clean black well made
teas coupled with useful liquors was fully firm to sometimes dearer. Others were irregular
and declined in value.
In the dust category, Monica SFD fetched the best prices of Rs 151 followed by Kallayar
SFD at Rs 149.
In the leaf grades, Chamraj FOP-S green tea quoted the best prices of Rs 322 followed by
Chamraj FPS at Rs 239.
Rice bran oil market may grow by 15%
this year: SEA
New Delhi, May 26:
With gaining popularity of rice bran oil as a healthy option for cooking, its market in the
country is estimated to grow by 15 per cent to Rs 4,600 crore this year, industry body
SEA said.
Rice bran oil, which is produced from brown layer of rice, is considered to be a healthy
cooking oil as it contains properties of lowering cholestrol levels.
“At present, the market for rice bran oil is around Rs 4,000 crore. We expect it to touch
Rs 4,600 crore by the end of this year,” Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) Rice Bran
Oil Promotion Council Chairman A R Sharma told PTI.
Sharma, who also heads Ricela Health Food Ltd, said the demand for rice bran oil is
growing among consumers because of health benefits.
Many local brands such as Fortune, Saffola, Sundrop and Dhara are selling rice bran oil
separately, while some of them are blending it with other cooking oils, he added.
According to the SEA, the current production of rice bran oil is around 8 lakh tonnes and
some food companies are raising the production capacity to meet the growing demand.
An official of the Mother Dairy Fruits and Vegetables Ltd, which sells rice bran oil under
‘Dhara’ brand, said the demand has doubled for this oil because of health benefits.
A similar view was shared by Marico Ltd, which are makers of ‘Saffola’ brand of edible
oils. Saffola blends 80 per cent of rice brand oil with other cooking oils.
India being the world’s second biggest rice producer at 104.22 million tonnes this year,
the country has huge potential to scale up rice bran oil output.
Edible oil prices in India likely to remain
subdued
KOLKATA: Edible oil prices in India are likely to remain subdued on lower domestic
demand as well as comfortable global supply. Since last month, prices of major edible oil
have been declining due to rising rabi crop arrivals as well as abundant supply of palm oil
from countries like Malaysia and Indonesia. Apart from palm oil, India is importing
soyoil from South America, which would also pressurise prices to certain extent.
"Prices may recover marginally but there won't be any surge as there is abundant supply
from worldwide origins. India's imports of edible oils are rising as supply from other
major countries is rising due to higher acreage and production. Comfortable international
supply position coupled with depressed demand due to seasonal factors would suppress
prices," said Raju Choksi, vice president (agro-commodities), Anil Nutrients Ltd., a
subsidiary of the Rs 650 crore agro and food processing major Anil Ltd.
Mr. Choksi added that domestic supply is also likely to improve as hoarded seeds with
farmers and stockists would start getting liquidated once monsoon sets in. "Palm oil
stocks will start building up in Indonesia and Malaysia from July-August onwards"
informed Choksi. Central Organization for Oil Industry & Trade ( COOIT) has estimated
total vegetable oil availability from Kharif and Rabi Oilseeds crops for the year 2012-13
(Nov-Oct) upward at 81.97 lakh tonnes compared to 81.52 lakh tonnes last year.
The import during the 2012-13 is estimated to increase by 5 to 7 lakh tonnes compared to
last year. Edible oil imports during November 2012-April 2013 period rose by 11.6% to
51.38 lakh tonnes as against 46.03 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of last year,
the data from Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) said. Palm oil imports surged 34.5%
to 33.54 lakh tonnes during the same period.
Global rice bran oil producers form an
international organisation
KOLKATA: Major Rice Bran Oil (RBO) producers in the world have decided to form an
international organization to create awareness among edible oil consumers across the
world about the health related advantages of using the RBO.
A decision to set up international organization was taken at the 1st Thailand Conference
on "Fats and Oils: Roles of Rice Bran Oil and its Products in the Changing Asia" held
recently which was attended by over 200 delegates from rice bran oil producing countries
including Japan, Thailand, India, China, Vietnam. The Conference aimed to promote and
encourage international technical co-operation, expansion of International rade,
promoting virtues of rice bran oil and its consumption across the world.
"The participant countries included India- the largest rice bran oil producer in the world
and China- the second largest RBO producer, besides Thailand- the host country," said
B.V. Mehta, executive director of The Solvent Extractors' Association of India.
While presenting the added benefits of physically refined Rice Bran Oil in India at the
conference, Dr. A.R. Sharma, the largest RBO producer in the world and Chairman of
SEA RBO Promotion Council, emphasized that physical refining is a better alternative to
chemical refining to retain highest levels of Oryzanol in the refined RBO. He quoted
various studies which proved that Rice Bran Oil helps reduce cholesterol, reduce
hypertension, help in blood sugar management, protects liver, treats menopausal
symptoms and it is anti-inflammatory. Besides, it helps patients of osteoporosis, helps
lighten skin, hydrates and is anti-ageing, he added.
"Rice Bran oil is edible oil with naturally balanced fatty acid composition quite close to
the latest recommendations by the National Institute of Nutrition (NIN). It contains
unique
nutraceuticals known to maintain the right balance of cholesterol besides promoting
overall good health,"" Dr. Mehta added. India has the potential to produce over 14 lakh
tonnes of Rice Bran Oil, however currently it produces about 9lakh tonnes, of which only
3 lakh tonnes are used as edible oil while the rest is used by vanaspati industry or blended
with other oils and sold as branded products. It is our constant endeavor to support the
small players to create visibility in retail chains and educate the consumers about the
benefit of this unique oil," said Dr. Mehta.
How to minimise revenue loss: edible oil
sector submits proposal to FBR
The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has received a budget proposal forwarded by
edible oil industry to reduce revenue loss which may occur following setting up of new
industrial undertakings under Section 65D of the Income Tax Ordinance of 2001.
Friday that the industry proposed a revamped taxation structure of income tax and federal
excise duty (FED) to continue with the existing laws to avoid revenue loss to existing
manufactures in case new industrial units were established. A senior FBR official
confirmed that the Board would not abolish Section 65D of Income Tax Ordinance, 2001
in the coming budget, as it was introduced to attract new investment with the facility of
tax credit to new industrial undertakings. The Section was specifically designed to attract
investment for the establishment of new units.
Details of the proposal showed that the manufacturers of vegetable ghee/cooking oil
import edible oil to the tune of approximately 2 Million Metric Tons annually out of
which 95 percent consists of Palm Oil and its sub-products. After the in-corporation of
Section 65 D in Income Tax Ordinance, 2001 through Finance Act, 2011 and few
additions through Finance Act, 2012 all those industrial under-takings established
between July 1, 2011 and June 30, 2016 shall be given a tax credit equal to one hundred
percent of tax payable under any of the provisions of ordinance including sub-section (8)
of section 148 to which import of edible oil falls at the rate of 5 percent in ''Minimum''
Mode''.
At the prevailing international market price of Palm Oil products the charge-able income
tax (WHT at import stage) on landed cost per metric ton is Rs 5,480 or nearly Rs 5.5 per
kilogram. The advantage granted to new set ups by virtue of said section would push
existing state of the art units out of competition hence closure or collapse and rise to bad
debts.
It is pertinent to note that at present cumulative installed capacity of refining and
manufacturing sector is over 5 million tons against requirement of around 3 Million tons
only per annum, consequently most of the units are struggling and surviving next to verge
of closure. Under given circumstances there exist no room for installation of new units
and shall be a mere wastage of national resources and hard earned foreign exchange
being consumed for import of plant and machinery, sources said.
Moreover it is easy to ascertain that national exchequer may lose to the tune of Rs 11
billion per annum and shall continue to lose the similar amount for next five years
consecutively, since one such unit has already availed the facility of tax credit and more
or less eight others shall apply in the last quarter of current year. Likewise 10-12 more
units would enter into production by the mid of the year 2014 and so on. In this backdrop
it is imminent that existing over 100 units would go out of production and only 20-25
units would monopolise the entire sector in the wake of Section 65D of the Income Tax
Ordinance, 2001, proposal maintained.
Experts said that the cost of raising a company formed and operating a new industrial
undertaking is negligible than the huge income tax concession of 5 percent or say Rs 5.5
per kg, meaning an average manufacturing concern with an average production of 300
tons per day (300,000 kgs) shall benefit under Section 65 D to the tune of Rs 1,650,000
per day over and above normal operating profit range of existing manufacturing
concerns. The rate of profit by virtue of section 65 D stands at Rs 49,500,000 per month,
and translates into 594,000,000 per annum more or less thrice the cost incurred in
erecting a new plant.
Like-wise, a similar amount of short-fall shall be experienced by national exchequers
which shall continue to increase in proportion with the establishment of new units already
in pipeline. Hence by the mid of year 2014, when 2 Million Tons of edible oil shall be
exempted from levy of income tax vide section 65 D, the net loss to the national
exchequer is forecasted around Rs 11 billion per annum.
In this backdrop it has been proposed to reduce the rate of income tax from existing 5
percent in Minimum Mode'' to 1 percent in ''Final Mode'' and enhance the prevailing FED
in value addition mode at the rate of Re 1/kg to Rs 5.50 per kg. Resultantly the revenue of
national exchequer shall be enhanced by Rs 422 per ton which total up to Rs 8.44 Billion
per annum on import of two million tons of edible oil. Like-wise the existing units may
also be able to continue its manufacturing and the other industrial undertakings availing
concession under Section 65D shall continue to be availing advantage of 1 percent
exemption in income tax.
The one percent income tax exemption so availed by new undertakings means over Re1
per kg or Rs 1,019 per ton. Subsequently, they shall be able to recover their hundred
percent equity well within three years of initiation of productions, without any sudden
and sizeable loss to the national exchequer, experts added. Moreover after the issuance of
SRO 140(I)/2013 dated February 26 this year, the WHT at the rate of 3 percent in
''Minimum Mode'' was applicable on import of edible oil by industrial concern located in
settled areas. However vide said SRO the reduced rate facility has been omitted resulting
into enhancement of rate up to 5 percent in ''Minimum Mode''.
Since Fata/Pata enjoy immunity against levy of taxes under the Sales Tax Act, 1990 and
Income Tax Ordinance, 2001, therefore, earlier in 2004-05 the government levied Federal
Excise Duty (FED) in lieu of Sales Tax on edible oil vide Serial No1 of the First
Schedule read with Section 3 of the Federal Excise Act of 2005.
The rationale behind imposition of FED on edible oil at the rate of 16 percent was to
provide a level playing field to manufacturers of vegetable ghee and cooking oil located
in settled areas and check the influx of products from un-settled (FATA/PATA) to settled
areas.
As of now, the manufacturing units of FATA/PATA are enjoying exemption of 5 percent
WHT on import of edible oils in addition to total exemption of payment of sales tax on
inputs like tin-plate, chemical, electricity, natural gas etc. Resultantly the units are at
advantage of Rs 6,500 per ton over units located in the tariff areas with break-up revealed
the impact of exemption of 5 percent withholding tax is Rs 5,500 per ton and impact of
exemption from sales tax on inputs is Rs 1,000 per ton.
If the said benefits are taken into consideration, the FATA/PATA units enjoy margins of
Rs 6.5 per Kg, which translates into Rs 39 million per annum over units in tariff areas on
average weighted monthly input/production of 5,000 ton. Consequent upon reasons, so
stated, the closure of industry in settled areas is imminent, in near future. With reference
to loss to the national exchequer, the proposal added that the units located in Fata/Pata
imported approximately 150,000 tons of edible oil in the past three years and shortfall in
revenue is around Rs 1 billion, they maintained.
Export of 30,000 tons of wheat to Iran
approved by government
Pakistan has approved export of 30,000 tons of wheat at subsidised rate to grain hungry
Iran on government to government basis out of the 100,000 tons on immediate basis on
the request of Iranian Embassy in Islamabad.
Official documents reveal that the federal cabinet was informed on May 16, 2013 that
consequent upon the decision taken in a meeting between the Presidents of Pakistan and
Iran in February, 2012 for enhancement of bilateral trade including barter trade, the
Economic Co-ordination Committee of the Cabinet in its meeting held on March 13,
2012 decided to explore the possibility of barter trade arrangement between Pakistan and
Iran for export of one million tons of wheat and 0.2 million tons of rice.
The Cabinet was further informed that after several meetings with Iranian side finally an
agreement was signed on November 21, 2012 for export of one million tons of Pakistani
wheat to Iran. The salient features of the agreement are as follows: (i) 100,000 tons of
Pakistani wheat would be traded on Government to Government basis; (ii) remaining
quantity of 900,000 tons would be sent through private parties. Government of Iran will
nominate Pakistani private parties who will be handed over wheat on Free on Board
(FoB) basis; (iii) price of the wheat would be $300 per ton on the basis of FoB basis
stowed and trimmed on one or two safe berth(s) Port Qasim/Karachi Port Trust, Karachi;
and (iv) cargo insurance would be arranged by the buyer and insurance cost would be on
the buyer''s account and the underwriter''s name would be mentioned on all documents.
It was stated that Government of Pakistan had agreed to sell wheat at $300 per ton as a
gesture of goodwill towards Iran. On account of transportation charges and current
international price of wheat, the price differential works out to be approximately $70 per
ton which is to be picked up by the Government in the light of ECC decision of August 6,
2012. It was stated that National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC) of
Pakistan has confirmed that they owe more than $53.21 million to M/s TAVANIR Iran
for supply of electricity. The Government of Iran has asked that this amount may be
offset against supply of wheat from Government sector, PASSCO and other commodities
to be supplied by the private sector to Iran.
The Iranian side has also authorised that $9 million may be adjusted (withdrawn) from
the account of TAVANIR with NTDC and given to PASSCO for provision of 30,000
tons wheat to Iran. The Cabinet was further informed that the Iranians need wheat
shipment at a rather short notice to meet their urgent requirements. The Iranian inspectors
have already inspected the exportable wheat at the storage sites in Pakistan. The approval
of the Cabinet is solicited for the following: (i) approval of the agreement signed between
PASSCO and Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) on November 21 2012. Ministry of
Commerce would serve as the concerned Ministry for the export of commodities by the
private parties; (ii) release of outstanding dues, by the Finance Division, that have
accrued in favour of NTDC; (iii) offsetting of dues payable by NTDC to TAVANIR, Iran
by means of payments by NTDC for exports against 30,000 tons wheat (amounting to $9
million) to PASSCO; (iv) opening of the account for depositing the amount owned by
NTDC to TAVANIR Iran and payment of export proceeds to the exporting entities out of
the said account; and (v) transfer in rupees equivalent to $9 million to PASSCO''s
account for the supply of 30,000 MT of wheat.
The sources said caretaker Minister for Water and Power, Dr Mussadik Malik opposed
subsidy of $70 per ton on wheat to Iran arguing that when the government is unable to
extend subsidy to its own people then why to Iran. According to sources, Water and
Power Minister faced the wrath of his colleagues on his remarks. However, Prime
Minister Mir Hazar Khan Khoso calmed the cabinet colleagues.
After detailed discussion, the cabinet also decided that price mechanism will be
determined by the National Food Security and Research Division in consultation with
Commerce, Finance and Water & Power Divisions on reciprocal basis and equal terms in
the best national interest and brotherly relations between the people of Pakistan and Iran.
French rapeseed crop could drop to
seven-year low: analyst
The rapeseed harvest in France could shrink by 19 percent this year to a 7-year low of 4.4
million tonnes after a difficult growing season marked by adverse weather and attacks
from crop pests, grains consultancy Agritel said on Friday. Production of rapeseed, which
is used to make edible oil and as a component in biodiesel fuel, had been widely expected
to fall sharply in France from last year's 5.5 million tonnes, in a similar trend to that in
Britain.
Agritel's outlook for France was below a range of 4.5 million to 4.8 million tonnes cited
by traders this week. Rapeseed plants were hampered by dry conditions at sowing time,
followed by a very wet winter and then cool, damp conditions during much of spring so
far. The unfavourable weather left crops vulnerable to pests, Agritel said, noting rapeseed
had also faced a new threat from pigeons that were no longer migrating south in winter.
The firm's forecast was based on an estimated area of 1.45 million hectares and a
projected average yield of 3.06 tonnes per hectare, both down about 10 percent on last
year. The expected area to be harvested this summer was down nearly 13 percent on an
estimated 1.66 million hectares initially sown before farmers later dug up some
struggling crops, Agritel said.
Area and yield declines would be most important in the north-eastern region Lorraine and
parts of central and western France, but nearly all the country was expected to see
decreases, Agritel said. The rapeseed area is expected to recover next year to 1.58 million
hectares, but would remain shy of the area initially sown for 2013, partly because this
season's difficult growing conditions would discourage some farmers, Agritel added.
Indian soya futures down on monsoon
prospects
Indian soyabean futures fell on Friday as prospects of a timely arrival of the monsoon
brightened in the absence of any abnormalities in the weather system, while soyaoil rose
on weak rupee. "Timely monsoon onset will improve output prospects for summerplanted crops including soyabean," said Badruddin Khan, associate vice-president of
research at Indiabulls Commodities.
India's south-west monsoon rains, vital for the farm-dependent economy, are forecast to
arrive on the Kerala coast around June 3, give or take four days, a time-frame treated as
normal. Timely progress of the monsoon over the soyabean growing areas of central
India will boost production prospects for the oilseed crop by giving sufficient time to
mature.
India grows soyabean in summer and harvests the oilseed crop after the monsoon season
ends in September. Until then, the country has to rely on soyaoil imports from Latin
America to meet domestic demand. India is the world's biggest importer of cooking oils
and meets over half its demand of 17 million tonnes via imports. It mainly imports palm
oils and a small quantity of soyaoil, which is preferred in the making of fried food served
during marriages and festivals.
A weak Indian currency will make soyaoil imports from Brazil and Argentina costlier in
coming months. Traders said rapeseed reflected the sentiment in soyaoil as it is the
highest oil yielding crop, while global sentiment in rival palm oil supported the higher
trade in soyaoil.
On Thursday, the benchmark palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia gained 0.5 percent
to close at 2,370 ($782) ringgit a tonne, slightly off its high at 2,375 ringgit, a level last
seen on April 11. On Friday, the exchange was closed due to a public holiday. At 0900
GMT, the key June soyabean contract on the National Commodity and Derivatives
Exchange was down 0.7 percent at 3,850 rupees per 100 kg. The rapeseed June contract
inched up 0.1 percent to 3,518 rupees per 100 kg.
The key June soyaoil contract was up 0.4 percent to 707 rupees per 10 kg. At the Indore
spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyabean was flat at 3,983 rupees per 100 kg, while
soyaoil was up about 2 rupees at 728.5 rupees per 10 kg. At Jaipur in Rajasthan, rapeseed
was up around 3 rupees at 3,528 rupees.
Soyabean offers lower on dull demand
Export premiums for near-term soyabean shipments from the US Gulf Coast were lower
on Friday, mirroring declines in the CIF barge market which supplies export elevators
and pressured by weak demand and a pickup in farmer selling this week, traders said.
New-crop soyabean export premiums held mostly steady amid routine demand.
Spot soyabean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade hit an eight-month high on
Thursday but fell sharply on Friday amid widespread talk that China had cancelled some
Brazilian soya purchases. Traders could not confirm the rumours. Thursday's futures rally
triggered farmer selling of old-crop beans which replenished the thinly supplied market
somewhat. But supplies flowing to the Gulf were minimal so exporters were reluctant to
lower offers for spot shipments too much for fear of selling an ocean-going vessel and
not being able to source enough barges to fill it.
FOB basis offers for June and July were quoted at about 130 cents a bushel over Chicago
Board of Trade July futures, a 25-cent premium to spot CIF basis offers. Soft red winter
wheat export premiums at the Gulf were steady to firm amid solid demand. Hard red
winter wheat premiums were firm on limited available supplies.
Indian sugar futures fall due to weak
demand
Indian sugar futures fell on Friday, extending losses from the previous session, due to
higher supplies and weak demand despite the summer season, which usually helps sugar
sales. Lower global prices also weighed on the contract. The benchmark July raw sugar
contract settled at 16.76 cent a lb on Thursday, hovering around the lowest level for the
front month since July 2010.
The key June contract on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange was down
0.65 percent at 3,035 rupees per 100 kg at 0856 GMT. "Every one - right from mills to
bulk buyers have higher stocks and supplies are more than plenty," said Mukesh Kuvadia,
secretary of the Bombay Sugar Merchants Association. "Lower global prices have also
dragged down prices," he said.
Demand for sugar from ice cream and beverage makers typically rises during the
summer. But there are concerns that sugar output in the top-producing Maharashtra state
may fall sharply due to drought. Sugar cane is a perennial, water-intensive crop and is
usually harvested 10 to 16 months after planting. Cane for the crushing season starting
October 1 has been planted, but half the total acreage is short of water.
Spot sugar dropped 10 rupees to 3,400 rupees per 100 kg at the Kolhapur market in the
top-producing Maharashtra state. Farmers have planted cane on 4.07 million hectares as
of May 17, compared with 4.57 million hectares during the same period a year earlier,
agriculture ministry data showed. India is likely to produce 24.6 million tonnes of sugar
in 2012-13, an industry body has said, against an annual demand of about 23 million
tonnes.
Egypt says it has gathered 2.7 million
tonnes of wheat
Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, has gathered 2.7 million tonnes of wheat from
local farmers so far this season, Supplies Minister Bassem Ouda said in a television
interview on Thursday. "We have reached today 2.7 million tonnes of wheat," Ouda said
on state television. "This is really the start of a good success that we hope to keep going."
Ouda added he expects a harvest of between 9 million and 9.5 million tonnes of domestic
wheat during this season, which runs from April until early June. About half of the
harvest ends up in government flour mills, with the rest being sold for feed and other
purposes.
Germany exported 63,000 tonnes of wheat
to Iran
Germany exported 63,000 tonnes of wheat to Iran in March 2013, figures from the
German statistics agency showed on Friday. This brought total German wheat exports to
Iran in the period between July 2012 and end March 2013 to 1.087 million tonnes,
agency figures showed. Germany had exported only 63,000 tonnes of wheat to Iran in the
same period a year earlier.
Although substantial, the March exports were down from 119,653 tonnes of wheat
Germany exported to Iran in February and 125,577 tonnes of wheat to Iran in January
2013. The European Union and the United States have imposed toughened sanctions to
discourage Tehran's disputed nuclear programme, which they say has a military purpose.
Iran rejects these allegations and says its atomic work is peaceful.
Western sanctions do not target food shipments, but financial measures have frozen
Iranian firms out of much of the global banking system, hindering payments for imports
on which Iran relies for much of its food. "Iran's wheat imports seem to be slackening as
the country awaits a more accurate picture of its domestic harvest which is expected to be
large," a trader said. "But I do expect more sales and there is talk a major multinational
trading house has made substantial sales of German wheat for August shipment to Iran."
Iranian wheat imports are expected to fall sharply in the new 2013/14 season as a larger
crop and record stocks put the brake on purchases. The US Department of Agriculture
(USDA) forecasts Iran's 2013/14 wheat purchases will plummet to around 1 million
tonnes, down from 6 million tonnes in the previous year.
Australian wheat planting outlook
boosted by rain forecast
Australian wheat planting will accelerate this week as much-needed rains are forecast to
hit the country's dry east coast, analysts said on Monday, brightening the outlook for the
world's second largest exporter of the grain. Timely rains would ease the threat of
significant losses amid an uncertain global crop outlook after analysts warned Australian
yields could be hurt if the dry weather that delayed planting on the east coast persisted.
"Farmers will go flat out with planting now," said Paul Deane, a senior agricultural
economist at ANZ. "If the east coast gets a good inch of rain, which looks like it will
happen, that will get things going and settle people down." Weather records show
Wednesday's expected rains will be the heaviest across much of the east coast since the
wheat planting window opened in late April, for the first time giving farmers enough
moisture to plant. New-crop Chicago Board Of Trade December wheat futures rose on
Monday, shrugging off pressure from favourable weather across the US hard red winter
wheat belt. But prospects for the Black Sea region remain uncertain, despite a recent
uptick in the weather outlook.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said between 15 and 25 mm of rain would blanket
all of New South Wales on Wednesday, easing planting pressure on farmers in Australia's
second largest wheat producing state. Much of Victoria and Queensland will receive
similar quantities of moisture, allowing farmers of Australia's premier wheat to advance
with their planting intentions, analysts said.
Yield losses are still likely if farmers dry planted too far ahead of any rains or were
unable to switch to variants with a shorter growing cycle, analysts said. "Farmers will
have to switch to later-planting wheat now, but if that's possible, yield losses should be
minimised," said Andrew Woodhouse, a grains analyst at Advance Trading Australasia.
While the rains ease pressure on east coast farmers, the prospect for the Western
Australia crop remains encouraging. The weather bureau said most of the state,
Australia's largest wheat producing territory, would get rain, with some parts receiving up
to 50 mm, boosting newly sown crops.
Wheat planting sped up last week after rain showers, said CBH Group, the state's largest
bulk grain handler. It forecast total output to rise 16 percent during the 2013/14
marketing year from the previous season. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and
Resource Economics and Sciences has forecast total production at 24.9 million tonnes for
the 2013/14 marketing year, an increase of 13 percent from the previous season on a
bigger planting area and bigger yields, but traders have been sceptical.
High Thai rice prices crimp exports
Thai rice exports have fallen 30 percent so far this year due to high prices caused by a
government intervention scheme, but shipments from Vietnam have risen and prices are
falling due to an increase in supply there, traders said on Wednesday. Between January
and May 21, Thailand exported 1.47 million tonnes of rice, down from 2.10 million in the
same period last year, according to the Board of Trade of Thailand.
"Exports will continue to fall as our prices are pegged at uncompetitive, high levels by
the government buying scheme," said a Bangkok-based exporter. As of last year, India
was the world's top rice exporter, with Vietnam and Thailand No.2 and No.3,
respectively. The government is paying 15,000 baht ($500) per tonne for paddy for a
second year to support farmers but the scheme has made Thai export prices around $170
a tonne higher than grain from India and Vietnam, resulting in a sharp drop in shipments.
Thai rice exporters have cut their 2013 export target to 6.0 million tonnes from 6.5
million due to the uncompetitive prices. That is well below the record 10.6 million tonnes
exported in 2011 and below even the 6.9 million tonnes exported in 2012, after the
intervention scheme was introduced in October 2011. On Wednesday Thai 5 percent
broken white rice was offered at $550 per tonne, up from last week's $545, exporters
said.
In contrast, Vietnamese rice prices continued to fall due to rising supply, traders said.
Vietnamese 5 percent broken white rice was at $370-$375 per tonne, down from last
week's $375-$380. Vietnamese prices were expected to fall further in anticipation of
increasing supplies from the next crop harvest in the Mekong Delta, especially as demand
from the main importing countries is thin, traders said. Indonesia and the Philippines are
major importers of Vietnamese rice.
"The price trend will be clearer in June, but the new harvest is putting pressure on prices
already," a trader in Ho Chi Minh City said. With lower prices, Vietnam's exports in 2013
stood at 2.4 million tonnes as of May 16, up 9 percent from the same period last year,
according to the Vietnam Food Association.
Exporters said they were waiting for the government to extend an offer of interest-free
loans to help them keep grain in stocks to prevent prices from falling during the
harvesting season. The industry body had asked the government to extend the programme
after it expired on May 20 but the government has yet to do so.
DJ Table of Malaysia May 1-25 Palm Oil Exports –Intertek
The following are the major items in the Intertek estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
RBD Palm Olein
RBD Palm Oil
RBD Palm Stearin
Crude Palm Oil
Total*
May 1-25
420,815
103,092
125,323
227,980
1,064,925
April 1-25
522,600
88,355
82,261
228,270
1,123,129
Major importers of Malaysian palm oil:
China
European Union
India & Subcontinent
Middle East
195,390
183,288
246,780
114,200
300,170
182,266
247,270
48,558
*Palm oil product volumes don't add up to total as some products aren't
included.
Cadmium Scare Boosts Appeal of North
China Rice, Thai Imports
Consumers in China are turning to well-known brands from northern provinces and Thai
imports after high traces of cadmium were found in some long-grain rice in the country’s
south, a commodities analyst said.
Demand for Thai rice, which can cost as much as nine times local grain, is rising, said
Wang Shutong, an analyst at commodity information provider Sublime China
Information Co. The price of rice from northeast Heilongjiang province, which produces
the short-grain japonica variety, has risen as much as 2.6 percent this month, according to
data tracked by SCI.
Shares (600598) of Heilongjiang Agriculture Co., China’s biggest listed producer of
short-grain rice, surged 19 percent in Shanghai trading this month, outpacing the
Shanghai Composite Index’s 5.5 percent gain, as reports on contamination increased.
China’s President Xi Jinping last week signaled a tolerance for slower economic
expansion to avoid environmental degradation.
“This incident highlights the frightening conditions of China’s soil and water quality,”
Wang said by phone on May 23 from Zibo city in Shandong province. “The immediate
reaction of consumers is to buy rice from places relatively free of pollution, and that
points to imports and the country’s far-north.”
Tight import quotas mean that Thailand and other exporting nations can’t accelerate
shipments to take advantage of rising demand, Wang said. Thailand is the biggest
exporter of premium-quality rice to China while Vietnam and Pakistan ship lower-grade
grain that is often blended with domestic rice, he said.
Imports from Thailand last year were 175,351 tons, down from 325,620 tons in 2011,
according to China’s customs data.
Toxic Metal
The Nanfang Daily first reported in February that rice from Hunan sold in southern
Guangdong province contained excessive levels of toxic metal and the Guangzhou Food
and Drug Administration reignited concerns with reports on its website on May 16.
“My friends are buying organic products they trust through their own channels, and some
are even going to Hong Kong to buy rice,” said Xiong Si, a magazine editor and a
consumer from Guangzhou. “There is little trust in domestic food.”
Sales from mills in Hunan province, the first reported origin of the tainted rice, are
stalling and 70 percent of processing plants have halted operations, according to SCI.
Traces of cadmium above government limits have also been found in rice from
neighboring Jiangxi province and Guangdong, China News Service reported May 21,
citing authorities in Foshan city.
Rough rice traded in Chicago rose 1 percent to $15.715 per 100 pounds on May 24,
taking gains for the year to 3.6 percent.
Rice futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, which trades the same variety of
the grain grown in Hunan, have fallen 2.9 percent this year and the September contract
traded 2,620 yuan ($428) per ton at 10:15 a.m.
Heilongjiang Agriculture shares were not trading today ahead of “significant events”
involving the company and will resume within five working days, according to a
company filing to the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
DJ Malaysian AM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - May 27
KUALA LUMPUR--The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market
at 0430 GMT on Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton except for crude palm oil and palm kernel
oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul--a Malaysian
measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm
Month
Offer
Change
May/Jun
807.50
+02.50
Jul/Aug/Sep
810.00
+05.00
Oct/Nov/Dec
795.00
00.00
Jan/Feb/Mar
797.50
00.00
oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Bid
Change
Traded
Unquoted
Unquoted
Unquoted
Unquoted
-
RBD palm olein,
Month
May/Jun
Jul/Aug/Sep
Oct/Nov/Dec
Jan/Feb/Mar
Bid
Unquoted
Unquoted
Unquoted
Unquoted
Change
-
Traded
-
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Month
Offer
Change
Bid
Jun
760.00
+05.00
Unquoted
Change
-
Traded
-
Palm fatty acid distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer
Change
Bid
Change
Jun
Unquoted
Unquoted
-
Traded
-
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer
Change
Bid
Change
Jun
2,350
00.00
Unquoted
-
Traded
-
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer
Change
Bid
Change
Jun
141.00
00.00
Unquoted
-
Traded
-
($1 = MYR3.0302)
FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer
Change
817.50
+02.50
820.00
+05.00
805.00
00.00
807.50
00.00
DJ Asian Rice Prices May Rise on China Demand After Cadmium Contamination
SINGAPORE--Asian rice prices may rise slightly this week on likely higher imports by
China, where local production was found laced with cadmium.
The contamination in China has propelled exporters in Vietnam and Thailand to raise
prices. Also supporting higher prices is Thailand's 20-month old program of buying rice
from growers for about 50% above market rates to boost rural incomes.
Vietnam, one of the world's largest rice exporters, is offering its 5% and 25% broken
grades of white rice for about $378 a metric ton and $361/ton, free-on-board. Thailand's
offers for the two grades are about $424/ton and $500/ton.
However, price gains from Chinese demand will be limited because of ample supply and
sharp fall in imports by other major buyers, Indonesia and The Philippines, traders said.
"There is an upside potential of $5-$8 a ton in the next few days but may be difficult to
extend further due to large harvests in major exporting countries," said an exporter in
Vietnam.
It is unclear how much of China's rice is contaminated with cadmium, but a recent survey
showed nearly half of the 18 samples tested contained unsafe levels of the metal.
The contaminated rice was mainly from Hunan, China's largest rice-producing province,
which accounted for 13% of last year's national output.
This will increase Chinese imports that are already on the rise, analysts say.
Even before the cadmium contamination was discovered, China was on course to
becoming the world's largest rice importer because demand exceeds output and growers
increasingly prefer cultivating corn, Jeremy Zwinger, president of California-based rice
consultancy The Rice Trader Inc., told Dow Jones Newswires.
China is increasingly sourcing rice from Vietnam and Thailand. An international buyers
and sellers meeting it organised earlier this month was attended by about three dozen
Vietnamese exporters.
"The general message we got from buyers [in China] was that they are ready to pay more
for better quality and high grade rice," said a senior trading executive with Vinlong Food,
a major Vietnamese rice exporting company.
"Consumers are more conscious now of quality and health than they were a decade ago,"
Mr. Zwinger said.
Thai long grain fragrant Hommali grade rice, which is popular in China, is now offered
for about $1105/ton and prices are expected to rise in coming days.
The International Grains Council, which last month raised its forecast for China's rice
imports in 2013 by 16% to 2.2 million tons because of low prices for the grain from some
countries, is expected to revise its estimates on Friday.
China rice scare boosts Thai imports
Consumers in China are turning to well-known brands from northern provinces and Thai
imports after high traces of cadmium were found in some long-grain rice in the country's
South, a commodities analyst said.
Demand for Thai rice, which can cost as much as nine times local grain, is rising, said
Wang Shutong, an analyst at commodity information provider Sublime China
Information Co. The price of rice from northeast Heilongjiang province, which produces
the short-grain japonica variety, has risen as much as 2.6% this month, according to data
tracked by SCI.
Shares of Heilongjiang Agriculture Co, China's biggest listed producer of short-grain
rice, surged 19% in Shanghai trading this month, outpacing the Shanghai Composite
Index's 5.5% gain, as reports on contamination increased. China's President Xi Jinping
last week signaled a tolerance for slower economic expansion to avoid environmental
degradation.
"This incident highlights the frightening conditions of China’s soil and water quality,"
Wang said by phone on May 23 from Zibo city in Shandong province. "The immediate
reaction of consumers is to buy rice from places relatively free of pollution, and that
points to imports and the country's far-North."
High traces of cadmium were found in some long-grain rice in the south of China. This
has prompted Chinese consumers to buy more Thai rice. (AFP photo)
Tight import quotas mean that Thailand and other exporting nations cannot accelerate
shipments to take advantage of rising demand, Wang said. Thailand is the biggest
exporter of premium-quality rice to China while Vietnam and Pakistan ship lower-grade
grain that is often blended with domestic rice, he said.
Imports from Thailand last year were 175,351 tonnes, down from 325,620 tonnes in
2011, according to China's customs data.
Toxic Metal
The Nanfang Daily first reported in February that rice from Hunan sold in southern
Guangdong province contained excessive levels of toxic metal and the Guangzhou Food
and Drug Administration reignited concerns with reports on its website on May 16.
"My friends are buying organic products they trust through their own channels, and some
are even going to Hong Kong to buy rice," said Xiong Si, a magazine editor and a
consumer from Guangzhou. "There is little trust in domestic food."
Sales from mills in Hunan province, the first reported origin of the tainted rice, are
stalling and 70% of processing plants have halted operations, according to SCI. Traces of
cadmium above government limits have also been found in rice from neighboring Jiangxi
province and Guangdong, China News Service reported May 21, citing authorities in
Foshan city.
Rough rice traded in Chicago rose 1% to US$15.715 per 100 pounds on May 24, taking
gains for the year to 3.6%.
Rice futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, which trades the same variety of
the grain grown in Hunan, have fallen 2.9% this year and the September contract traded
2,620 yuan (US$428) per tonne at 10.15am.
Heilongjiang Agriculture shares were not trading today ahead of "significant events"
involving the company and will resume within five working days, according to a
company filing to the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
DJ U.S. Southern Plains HRW Wheat Weather - May 27
DJ - 54 mins ago
USA CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUMMARY- Light rain or showers mostly under 0.20 inch (5 mm) during
the past
24 hours. Temperatures 63-83F (17-28C).
FORECASTTODAY... Periods of light rain and showers. Temperatures 70-83F (2128C).
TONIGHT...Mostly dry or a few light showers. Temperatures 51-66F (1119C).
TOMORROW... Mostly dry conditions or a few light showers south with a
few
thunderstorms north and northeast. Temperatures 80-90F (27-32C).
OUTLOOK... Mostly dry with a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms
east and
northeast Sunday, mostly dry conditions south with a few showers and
thunderstorms north and northeast Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures
mostly above
normal Sunday through Tuesday.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHEAT PROSPECTS...
Above to well above normal temperatures and limited rainfall across
the dry
western winter wheat belt will put further stress on the developing
crop. More
favorable conditions across the east where more adequate soil moisture
conditions exist but episodes of hot, dry weather will deplete soil
moisture.
This situation bears close watching.
DJ U.S. Northern Plains Spring Wheat Weather - May 27
DJ - 54 mins ago
USA NORTHERN PLAINS
SUMMARY- Mostly dry or a few light showers west during the past 24
hours.
Temperatures 63-74F (17-23C).
FORECASTTODAY... Mostly dry conditions east with a few showers and
thundershowers
developing west. Temperatures 64-73F (18-23C).
TONIGHT...A few widely scattered showers or thunderstorms.
Temperatures
46-55F (8-13C).
TOMORROW... Dry conditions or a few light showers east. Temperatures
68-80F
(20-27C).
OUTLOOK... Periods of rain and showers Sunday and Monday, lingering
rain east
and mostly dry west Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday
through
Tuesday.
NORTHERN PLAINS WHEAT PROSPECTS...
Wheat planting has made good progress during the past week and is
nearly
complete across South Dakota. Wet weather continues to disrupt planting
now but
drier weather later this week will allow for planting to resume.
DJ Argentina Winter Wheat Weather - May 27
DJ - 54 mins ago
CORDOBA, SANTA FE, NORTHERN BUENOS AIRES
SUMMARY- Dry conditions during the past 24 hours. Temperatures 63-69F
(17-21C).
FORECASTTODAY...Dry conditions. Temperatures 62-68F (17-20C).
TONIGHT...Dry conditions. Temperatures 34-42F (1-6C).
TOMORROW...Dry conditions. Temperatures 64-70F (18-21C).
OUTLOOK...Mostly dry Sunday and Monday, mostly dry or a few light
showers
Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday and Monday, mostly
below
normal Tuesday.
LA PAMPA AND SOUTHERN BUENOS AIRES
SUMMARY- Dry conditions during the past 24 hours. Temperatures 63-70F
(17-21C).
FORECASTTODAY...Dry conditions. Temperatures 61-67F (16-19C).
TONIGHT...Dry conditions. Temperatures 31-42F (-1 to 6C).
TOMORROW...Dry conditions. Temperatures 62-68F (17-20C).
OUTLOOK...Mostly dry Sunday and Monday, mostly dry or a few light
showers
Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday and Monday, mostly
below
normal Tuesday.
ARGENTINA WHEAT PROSPECTS...
Wheat planting is getting underway. Wet conditions due to recent
rains may
delay the early planting effort but dry weather is expected during the
next 5
days.
DJ Argentina Corn Weather - May 27
DJ - 54 mins ago
CORDOBA, SANTA FE, NORTHERN BUENOS AIRES
SUMMARY- Dry conditions during the past 24 hours. Temperatures 63-69F
(17-21C).
FORECASTTODAY...Dry conditions. Temperatures 62-68F (17-20C).
TONIGHT...Dry conditions. Temperatures 34-42F (1-6C).
TOMORROW...Dry conditions. Temperatures 64-70F (18-21C).
OUTLOOK...Mostly dry Sunday and Monday, mostly dry or a few light
showers
Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday and Monday, mostly
below
normal Tuesday.
LA PAMPA AND SOUTHERN BUENOS AIRES
SUMMARY- Dry conditions during the past 24 hours. Temperatures 63-70F
(17-21C).
FORECASTTODAY...Dry conditions. Temperatures 61-67F (16-19C).
TONIGHT...Dry conditions. Temperatures 31-42F (-1 to 6C).
TOMORROW...Dry conditions. Temperatures 62-68F (17-20C).
OUTLOOK...Mostly dry Sunday and Monday, mostly dry or a few light
showers
Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday and Monday, mostly
below
normal Tuesday.
ARGENTINA CORN PROSPECTS...
Favorable harvest conditions continue during the next 5 days.
DJ Former Soviet Union Corn Weather - May 27
DJ - 50 mins ago
FSU WEST
SUMMARY- A disturbance produced numerous showers and thundershowers in
western
areas yesterday, with additional showers observed in the northeast,
0.10-0.80+
inch (3-20+ mm). Temperatures 60 to 90F (16 to 32C).
FORECASTTODAY...Patchy rain and showers and thundershowers in central and
western
areas, with a few spotty showers in the east, 0.10-0.75+ inch (3-19+
mm).
Temperatures 58 to 92F (14 to 33C).
TONIGHT...Intermittent showers in said areas overnight.
TOMORROW...Scattered showers and thundershowers, 0.10-0.60+ inch (315+ mm).
Temperatures 63 to 93F (17 to 34C).
OUTLOOK...Scattered showers and thundershowers Sunday through
Tuesday, with
most activity shifting to northern areas late this period. Temperatures
warmer
central areas, warm to hot east, variable to somewhat cooler southwest.
FSU GRAINS
CROP IMPACT- A recent turn to drier and very warm weather continues
early this
week for key growing areas of Ukraine, west and south Russia. Winter
grain will
come under increasing stress until this pattern breaks, especially in
areas of
South Russia and the Volga valley where moisture reserves are limited.
Warmer,
drier weather in west Ukraine and in Central Region Russia will be
favorable
for a time, after very wet early spring conditions. Spring grain areas
from the
Volga valley through northern Kazakh and southern Siberia have seen a
variable
temperature pattern recently with some scattered shower activity. Soil
moisture
for germination and early development should be adequate but more rain
will be
needed.
DJ e/cbot Grains/Oilseeds Futures Hourly Price Update
DJ - 45 mins ago
Last
Change
Settlement
High
Low
Previous
Corn (cents/bu.)
Jul 13
662
Sep 13
563.5
Dec 13
534.75
Soybeans (cents/bu.)
Jul 13
1499.5
Aug 13
1414.5
Sep 13
1299.5
Soybean Oil (cents/lb.)
Jul13
49.66
Aug13
49.53
Sep13
49.31
Soybean Meal ($/ton)
Jul13
437
Aug13
410.6
Sep13
383.2
Wheat (cents/bu.)
Jul 13
703.25
(CBOT) Sep 2013
709.75
(CBOT) Dec 2013
723
656.50
-5.50
664.75
655.50
566.25
+2.75
567.50
555.00
535.75
+1.00
537.00
527.00
1476.00
-23.50
1505.75
1471.25
1402.00
-12.50
1421.75
1396.00
1298.50
-1.00
1307.00
1292.25
49.30
-0.36
49.91
49.18
49.21
-0.32
49.78
49.09
49.02
-0.29
49.56
48.87
427.50
-9.50
437.70
427.00
404.90
-5.70
413.00
404.30
381.40
-1.80
385.80
380.80
696.25
-7.00
707.25
696.00
703.25
-6.50
714.25
703.00
716.50
-6.50
728.00
716.50
DJ Northern Europe Grains Weather - May 27
DJ - 45 mins ago
SCANDINAVIA
SUMMARY- Rain and showers in central and southwestern areas yesterday,
0.10-1.00+ inch (3-25+ mm). Mostly dry elsewhere. Temperatures 47 to
69F (8 to
21C).
FORECASTTODAY...A few widely scattered showers, 0.10-0.30 inch (3-8 mm).
However,
most areas are expected to be drier. Temperatures 52 to 69F (11 to
21C).
TONIGHT...A few light showers in the south, dry elsewhere overnight.
TOMORROW...Showers in southern areas, 0.10-0.50 inch (3-13 mm).
Mainly dry
elsewhere. Temperatures 52 to 73F (11 to 23C).
OUTLOOK...Intermittent periods of rain and showers Sunday through
Tuesday.
Temperatures a bit milder south.
NORTH EUROPE GRAINS
CROP IMPACT- Periods of cool temperatures continue to slow winter
grain
development through northwest Europe. However it has also been warmer
at times.
Soil moisture is adequate to surplus for winter grain areas of western
Europe
and from north Italy to Poland in the east. Recent warm weather favors
development of grains through southeast Europe at this time. Soil
moisture is
still adequate but declining in that area.
DJ U.S. Midwest SRW Wheat Weather - May 27
DJ - 35 mins ago
MIDWEST
SUMMARY- Rain and showers of 0.10-0.50 inch (3-13 mm) through central
and
eastern areas with mostly dry weather west during the past 24 hours.
Temperatures 54-73F (12-23C) from north to south.
FORECASTTODAY... Dry conditions. Temperatures 58-72F (14-22C).
TONIGHT... Mostly dry central and east with a few light showers
developing
west. Temperatures 36-54F (2-12C).
TOMORROW... Dry conditions central and east with light showers,
locally
heavier west. Temperatures 60-82F (16-28C).
OUTLOOK.... Showers and thunderstorms west and northwest and dry
through
eastern and southeastern areas Sunday, episodes showers and
thunderstorms
across the western and northwestern half and mostly dry through the
eastern and
southeastern half Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures below normal
northeast and
near normal southwest Sunday, near to below normal north and near to
above
normal south Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.
MIDWEST WHEAT PROSPECTS...
Mostly favorable conditions for the wheat crop at this time with
less
concern about disease.
DJ Europe Rapeseed Weather - May 27
DJ - 30 mins ago
EUROPE
SUMMARY- Rain and showers yesterday, 0.10-1.75+ inches (3-44+ mm),
heaviest in
south-central and southeastern areas. However, mostly dry in
southwestern
areas. Temperatures 45 to 90F (7 to 32C).
FORECASTTODAY...Patchy rain and showers, 0.10-0.80+ inch (3-20+ mm), most
activity in
central areas. Temperatures 40 to 86F (4 to 30C).
TONIGHT...Precipitation diminishing some overnight.
TOMORROW...Additional rain and showers, 0.10-0.80+ inch (3-20+ mm),
heaviest
in central locales. Temperatures 42 to 87F (6 to 31C).
OUTLOOK...Episodes of rain and showers Sunday through Tuesday, most
activity
in northern and eastern areas. Temperatures highly variable this
period.
EUROPE RAPESEED
CROP IMPACT- Winter rapeseed areas of western Europe continue under a
variable
temperatures pattern at this time, alternating warm and fairly cool.
Development has been slowed by episodes of cool temperatures. Soil
moisture
will favor the western crop region while recent rain has improved
conditions in
and around Germany (except somewhat dry in the northwest) and through
Poland
after drier conditions during March and early April. The southeast
Europe crop
area has turned somewhat drier and warmer recently, especially in
Bulgaria and
Romania. The crop will benefit from the warmer trend, so long as soil
moisture
is adequate.
DJ Europe Wheat Weather - May 27
DJ - 25 mins ago
EUROPE
SUMMARY- Rain and showers yesterday, 0.10-1.75+ inches (3-44+ mm),
heaviest in
south-central and southeastern areas. However, mostly dry in
southwestern
areas. Temperatures 45 to 90F (7 to 32C).
FORECASTTODAY...Patchy rain and showers, 0.10-0.80+ inch (3-20+ mm), most
activity in
central areas. Temperatures 40 to 86F (4 to 30C).
TONIGHT...Precipitation diminishing some overnight.
TOMORROW...Additional rain and showers, 0.10-0.80+ inch (3-20+ mm),
heaviest
in central locales. Temperatures 42 to 87F (6 to 31C).
OUTLOOK...Episodes of rain and showers Sunday through Tuesday, most
activity
in northern and eastern areas. Temperatures highly variable this
period.
EUROPE WHEAT
CROP IMPACT- Episodes of cool temperatures continue to slow wheat
development
through northwest Europe, except not as wet in northwest Germany.
However it
has also been warmer at times. Soil moisture is adequate to surplus for
wheat
areas of western Europe and from north Italy to Poland in the east.
Recent warm
weather favors development of wheat through southeast Europe at this
time. Soil
moisture is still adequate but declining in that area.
DJ Europe Corn Weather - May 27
DJ - 25 mins ago
EUROPE
SUMMARY- Rain and showers yesterday, 0.10-1.75+ inches (3-44+ mm),
heaviest in
south-central and southeastern areas. However, mostly dry in
southwestern
areas. Temperatures 45 to 90F (7 to 32C).
FORECASTTODAY...Patchy rain and showers, 0.10-0.80+ inch (3-20+ mm), most
activity in
central areas. Temperatures 40 to 86F (4 to 30C).
TONIGHT...Precipitation diminishing some overnight.
TOMORROW...Additional rain and showers, 0.10-0.80+ inch (3-20+ mm),
heaviest
in central locales. Temperatures 42 to 87F (6 to 31C).
OUTLOOK...Episodes of rain and showers Sunday through Tuesday, most
activity
in northern and eastern areas. Temperatures highly variable this
period.
EUROPE CORN
CROP IMPACT- Generally wet conditions across southern France and north
Italy
at this time may slow planting progress but the moisture favors early
development of maize. Dry and very warm weather through corn areas of
Romania
and Bulgaria Europe will favor planting progress while drying out
fields.
Palm Oil Futures Trade Near Six-Week
High on Demand Outlook
Palm oil traded near the highest level in six weeks on speculation that demand may
increase ahead of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, boosting exports from
Malaysia, the world’s second-largest producer.
The contract for August delivery was little changed at 2,368 ringgit ($781) a metric ton
on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives at the midday break in Kuala Lumpur. Futures closed
at 2,371 ringgit on May 23, the highest level for the most active contract since April 10.
Purchases from the Middle East and South Asia usually climb before Ramadan, which
starts in July this year, when communal meals boost total consumption. Shipments from
Malaysia fell 5.2 percent to 1.06 million tons in the first 25 days of May from the same
period in April, surveyor Intertek said May 25. That compares with a 9.4 percent drop in
the first 20 days of this month and a 17 percent decline in the first 10 days.
“People are expecting fresh buying,” Rajesh Modi, a trader at Sprint Exim Pte., said by
phone from Singapore. “After June 15, exports will be at a much higher pace” as
Ramadan demand picks up, he said.
Demand from China may continue to rebound as the weather gets warmer, state-owned
researcher Grain.gov.cn said in an e-mail today. Inventories of palm oil stored in the
country’s major ports totaled 1.36 million tons, compared with 1.35 million tons a week
earlier, it said.
Refined palm oil for September delivery was little changed at 6,110 yuan ($997) a ton on
the Dalian Commodity Exchange, while soybean oil fell 0.3 percent to 7,508 yuan.
On the Chicago Board of Trade, soybeans for July delivery closed 1.6 percent lower at
$14.7625 a bushel on May 24 and soybean oil for the same month lost 0.9 percent to
49.24 cents a pound. The market is closed today for a holiday.
Jeera to trade higher; Cardamom may extend down run
MUMBAI: Turmeric futures (June) will possibly trade in the range of 5800-6150 levels.
At the spot market, though traders have not yet received any fresh upcountry orders, they
purchased a few bags of quality turmeric by quoting a higher price for fulfilling of local
orders.
Jeera futures (June) is likely to trade higher surpassing 13400 levels. The sentiments are
steady at the spot markets supported as export and local demand persisted. NCDEX
quality quoted at Rs 2,325-2,425 per 20 kg in Unjha market of Gujarat.
Chilli futures (June) is expected to consolidate in the range of 5500-5750 levels. Lack of
fresh cues of demand may keep a lid on the upside.
Cardamom futures (June) is likely to extend its downside breaching 720 levels. The
prospects of a good crop situation & the ongoing selling pressure may keep the counter is
a bearish zone.
Oilseeds: Mustard futures (June) will probably remain below 3540 levels, while soybean
futures (June) is expected to trade in the range of 3890-3780 levels with upside getting
capped.
Other commodities: Cotton futures are expected to trade range bound & consolidate in
the range of 18000-18400 levels. There are reports that domestic mills are buying on
higher yarn export expectation. Restricted selling of the cotton also supported the price to
rise.
Sugar futures are likely to fall further on slack demand and higher sales. There is ample
supply in local markets in absence of neighbouring States buying. Inventories in the
Vashi market increased for the second consecutive day due to lower retailers’ off take.
Wheat futures are expected to hold the upside bias as a steady trend is likely to be
witnessed in the coming days in the physical market. The increased buying by flour mills
helped wheat prices to gain further ground.
DJ Argentina Soybeans Weather - May 27
DJ - 37 mins ago
CORDOBA, SANTA FE, NORTHERN BUENOS AIRES
SUMMARY- Dry conditions during the past 24 hours. Temperatures 63-69F
(17-21C).
FORECASTTODAY...Dry conditions. Temperatures 62-68F (17-20C).
TONIGHT...Dry conditions. Temperatures 34-42F (1-6C).
TOMORROW...Dry conditions. Temperatures 64-70F (18-21C).
OUTLOOK...Mostly dry Sunday and Monday, mostly dry or a few light
showers
Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday and Monday, mostly
below
normal Tuesday.
ARGENTINA SOYBEAN PROSPECTS...
Favorable harvest conditions continue during the next 5 days.
DJ U.S. Midwest Corn Weather - May 27
DJ - 32 mins ago
MIDWEST
SUMMARY- Rain and showers of 0.10-0.50 inch (3-13 mm) through central
and
eastern areas with mostly dry weather west during the past 24 hours.
Temperatures 54-73F (12-23C) from north to south.
FORECASTTODAY... Dry conditions. Temperatures 58-72F (14-22C).
TONIGHT... Mostly dry central and east with a few light showers
developing
west. Temperatures 36-54F (2-12C).
TOMORROW... Dry conditions central and east with light showers,
locally
heavier west. Temperatures 60-82F (16-28C).
OUTLOOK.... Showers and thunderstorms west and northwest and dry
through
eastern and southeastern areas Sunday, episodes showers and
thunderstorms
across the western and northwestern half and mostly dry through the
eastern and
southeastern half Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures below normal
northeast and
near normal southwest Sunday, near to below normal north and near to
above
normal south Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.
MIDWEST CORN PROSPECTS...
Crop reports indicate good planting progress despite episodes of
showers
and thunderstorms. Producers will continue to move toward completing
planting
as soon as possible despite disruptions. The weather pattern favors
emergence
and development of planted crops.
DJ e/cbot Grains/Oilseeds Futures Hourly Price Update
DJ - 22 mins ago
Last
Change
High
Settlement
Corn (cents/bu.)
Jul 13
662
Sep 13
563.5
Dec 13
534.75
Soybeans (cents/bu.)
Jul 13
1499.5
Aug 13
1414.5
Sep 13
1299.5
Soybean Oil (cents/lb.)
Jul13
49.66
Low
Previous
656.50
-5.50
664.75
655.50
566.25
+2.75
567.50
555.00
535.75
+1.00
537.00
527.00
1476.00
-23.50
1505.75
1471.25
1402.00
-12.50
1421.75
1396.00
1298.50
-1.00
1307.00
1292.25
49.30
-0.36
49.91
49.18
Aug13
49.53
Sep13
49.31
Soybean Meal ($/ton)
Jul13
437
Aug13
410.6
Sep13
383.2
Wheat (cents/bu.)
Jul 13
703.25
(CBOT) Sep 2013
709.75
(CBOT) Dec 2013
723
49.21
-0.32
49.78
49.09
49.02
-0.29
49.56
48.87
427.50
-9.50
437.70
427.00
404.90
-5.70
413.00
404.30
381.40
-1.80
385.80
380.80
696.25
-7.00
707.25
696.00
703.25
-6.50
714.25
703.00
716.50
-6.50
728.00
716.50
DJ South Africa Corn Weather - May 27
DJ - 12 mins ago
SOUTH AFRICA
SUMMARY- Mostly dry yesterday. Temperatures 62 to 83F (17 to 28C).
FORECASTTODAY...Dry across much of the region. Temperatures 63 to 83F (17 to
28C).
TONIGHT...Dry overnight.
TOMORROW...Mainly dry weather expected. Temperatures 61 to 84F (16 to
29C).
OUTLOOK...Scattered showers moving across southern areas Sunday into
early
Monday, mostly dry thereafter. Temperatures cooler central and south.
SOUTH AFRICA CORN
CROP IMPACT- A generally drier and warmer weather pattern in South
Africa will
favor mature maize and the harvest, after prior rains and cool
conditions.
Although some showers activity likely late week/weekend.
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 34,016 lots, or 1.60 billion yuan
Open
High
Low
Close
Prev.
Settle
Ch.
Vol
4,871
4
94
Open
Settle
Interest
Jul-13 4,870
366
4,873
4,860
4,865
4,867
Sep-13
177,022
Nov-13
174
Jan-14
132,268
Mar-14
2
May-14
21,182
Jul-14
6
Sep-14
1,302
Nov-14
2
4,793
4,804
4,790
4,800
4,801
4,797
-4
9,918
4,760
4,760
4,760
4,760
4,757
4,760
3
4
4,644
4,665
4,633
4,663
4,660
4,655
-5
20,274
-
-
4,664
4,664
4,664
0
0
4,638
4,650
4,627
4,640
4,653
4,643
-10
3,632
4,650
4,661
4,640
4,640
4,654
4,650
-4
6
4,660
4,667
4,641
4,656
4,665
4,661
-4
88
-
-
4,696
4,700
4,696
-4
0
-
-
Soybean No. 2
Turnover: 60 lots, or 2.48 million yuan
Open
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
4,261
4,071
4,125
4,218
4,165
-
High
Low
Close
4,261
4,078
4,200
4,218
4,165
-
4,261
4,070
4,125
4,050
4,080
-
4,261
4,073
4,126
4,060
4,080
4,121
Prev.
Settle
4,413
4,075
4,294
4,067
4,040
4,121
Settle
Ch.
Vol
4,261
4,073
4,140
4,136
4,122
4,121
-152
-2
-154
69
82
0
2
8
38
8
4
0
Open
Interest
10
402
12
16
6
28
Corn
Turnover: 104,092 lots, or 2.52 billion yuan
Open
High
Low
Close
Prev.
Settle
Ch.
Vol
Open
Settle
Interest
Jul-13 2,389
586
Sep-13 2,435
595,368
Nov-13 2,397
86
Jan-14 2,354
233,640
Mar-14 2,363
122
May-14 2,392
17,098
2,398
2,370
2,370
2,377
2,386
9
14
2,442
2,432
2,439
2,432
2,437
5
75,416
2,397
2,385
2,391
2,396
2,390
-6
18
2,358
2,352
2,356
2,355
2,354
-1
19,802
2,365
2,360
2,362
2,359
2,362
3
14
2,400
2,390
2,395
2,392
2,396
4
8,828
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,413,848 lots, or 44.91 billion yuan
Open
Open
High
Low
Close
Prev.
Settle
Ch.
Vol
Settle
Interest
Jul-13 3,529
2,306
Aug-13 3,421
558
Sep-13 3,303
1,465,700
Nov-13 3,214
828
Dec-13 3,128
254
Jan-14 3,022
962,198
Mar-14 3,039
814
May-14 2,939
136,836
3,537
3,526
3,532
3,529
3,531
2
178
3,429
3,418
3,418
3,432
3,422
-10
36
3,323
3,303
3,320
3,330
3,316
-14
711,058
3,234
3,214
3,234
3,278
3,228
-50
38
3,139
3,128
3,131
3,130
3,131
1
14
3,052
3,015
3,040
3,027
3,040
13
658,104
3,048
3,039
3,041
3,029
3,043
14
36
2,959
2,932
2,955
2,938
2,952
14
44,384
Palm Oil
Turnover: 477,816 lots, or 29.36 billion yuan
Open
High
Low
Close
Prev.
Settle
Ch.
Vol
Open
Settle
Interest
Jun-13 5,738
584
Jul-13 5,870
30
Aug-13 50
Sep-13 6,098
537,344
Oct-13 6,096
2,106
Nov-13 14
Dec-13 12
Jan-14 6,194
325,886
Feb-14 6,278
12
Mar-14 6,354
4
Apr-14 4
May-14 6,424
10,420
5,898
5,692
5,898
5,788
5,788
0
8
5,978
5,870
5,978
5,812
5,906
94
6
-
-
6,026
6,052
6,026
-26
0
6,138
6,070
6,132
6,140
6,112
-28
342,284
6,154
6,096
6,154
6,148
6,130
-18
208
-
-
6,172
6,172
6,172
0
0
-
-
6,226
6,226
6,226
0
0
6,246
6,184
6,244
6,264
6,222
-42
134,906
6,278
6,240
6,240
6,252
6,258
6
4
6,354
6,232
6,232
6,418
6,292
-126
20
-
-
6,276
6,276
6,276
0
0
6,424
6,330
6,390
6,424
6,376
-48
380
Soybean oil
Turnover: 655,836 lots, or 49.49 billion yuan
Open
High
Low
Close
Prev.
Settle
Ch.
Vol
Open
Settle
Interest
Jul-13 7,314
28
Aug-13 50
Sep-13 7,480
655,946
Nov-13 104
Dec-13 18
Jan-14 7,710
329,476
Mar-14 8
May-14 7,788
12,032
7,428
7,314
7,428
7,324
7,370
46
4
-
-
7,456
7,504
7,456
-48
0
7,522
7,460
7,516
7,538
7,502
-36
533,384
-
-
7,668
7,668
7,668
0
0
-
-
7,684
7,720
7,684
-36
0
7,756
7,684
7,754
7,768
7,732
-36
117,498
-
-
7,766
7,802
7,766
-36
0
7,796
7,758
7,770
7,826
7,770
-56
4,950
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day's settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
NCDEX Sugar bearish; short covering expected, support 2970
MUMBAI (Commodity Online): The trend in sugar futures on India's National
Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) for June delivery looks bearish and
short covering is expected at current levels.
“Support for the commodity is seen at 2970 while 3080 is the resistance. Traders may sell
around 3055 with the stop loss of 3080 for the target of 2970,” said Milan Shah, Research
Analyst at Commodity Online.
NCDEX sugar for June delivery was seen trading up by 0.1% at Rs.3023 per 100 kgs as
of 12.45 PM IST on Monday.
Sugar prices at both physical and futures markets look bearish due to poor spot market
demand and concerns over sugar imports.
Ample supply of the commodity is also blamed for current bearish trend.
Global updates
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates FY 2013 sugar imports of US at
2.903 mn short tons, raw value (STRV), a reduction from last month of 133,000 STRV,
according to its latest report.
The decrease stems from a 100,000 STRV reduction in other program imports (re-export
program) and an increase in tariff-rate quota (TRQ) shortfall of 60,000 STRV.
The USDA forecasts FY 2014 sugar imports at 3.438 mn STRV, an increase over last
year of 535,000 STRV. The largest change from FY 2013 is increased imports from the
re-export sugar program (up 275,000 STRV), followed by lower shortfall—forecast at a
high 200,000 STRV but still 260,000 STRV lower than that estimated for FY 2013.
The USDA forecasts 2012-13 Mexico sugar production at 6.216 mn tons (mt), an
increase of almost 100,000 mn tons over the April forecast.
The USDA bases its forecast on harvest data through April 27, 2013, adjusted by ratios
between data from recent harvests through the same corresponding end-of-April time
period and their respective end-of-season totals.
Sugar production for 2013-14 is forecast at 5.887 mn tons. This forecast assumes more
area planted due to higher returns in years prior to 2013, a return to normal sugar cane
yields, and trend-level sucrose recovery.
NCDEX Coriander, Castor Seed bearish; support 6500, 3150
MUMBAI (Commodity Online): Coriander futures for June delivery on India's National
Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) is bearish and sell on rise is advised to
the traders.
“Support for the commodity is seen at 6500 while 6950 is the resistance. Traders may sell
around 6780 with the stop loss of 6950 for the target of 6500,” said Milan Shah, Research
Analyst at Commodity Online.
NCDEX coriander for June delivery was seen trading down by 1.34% at Rs.6691 per 100
kgs as of 11.30 AM IST on Monday.
Last week, coriander futures closed negative tracking weak trend in major spot markets.
Higher arrivals amid subdued demand weighed on the market sentiments. However, the
prices are expected to remain under pressure due to a sharp rise in daily arrivals.
NCDEX Castor Seed
NCDEX castor seed for June delivery looks bearish and traders may sell on rise.
“Support for the commodity is seen at 3150 while 3310 is the resistance. Traders may sell
around 3260 with the stop loss of 3310 for the target of 3150,” noted Milan.
NCDEX castor seed for June delivery was down by 1.13% at Rs.3227 per 100 kgs as of
11.30 AM IST on Monday.
Export of castor oil decreased to 38,869 tons in March, when compared to the exports of
50,355 tons in February in 2013.
The total exports during FY 2012-13 stood at 4,30,752 tons against 4,04,489 tons in FY
2011-12, according to Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA of India).
India's castor seed production is estimated to be at 11.31 lakh tons according to a study
by Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA).
NCDEX Coriander bearish, support at 6620 levels
By John Godson
Coriander prices at India’s National Commodities and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX)
witnessed a bearish phenomenon. Coriander June is now trading around Rs 6640-6788
per qtl levels.
Arrivals in Kota and Ramganj spot markets were around 5000 bags and 9000 bags,
respectively. National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange said it has indefinitely
postponed its decision to raise tick size from one rupee to 5 rupees and to reduce the lot
size from 10 tons to one ton, of coriander contracts.
On Monday trade, Coriander rose to a high of 6788 Rs/qtl at 12.41 pm IST and is
expected to trade negative in the near term. Support is at 6635, 6620 levels and resistance
at 6868 & 6910, analyst said.
On daily charts, indicators were showing a mixed picture. RSI at 46.36 is in sideways and
stochastic level is at medium levels. The commodity is trading around the 20 day SMA at
6699 levels.
Increase in daily arrivals and inadequate stock position has impacted coriander prices.
We expect NCDEX Coriander to trade on bearish note.
NCDEX Guar Seed may hit lower circuit
By John Godson
Guar Seed prices at India’s National Commodities and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX)
was down by 3.22%. Guar Seed June is now trading around Rs 8710-9040 per qtl levels.
Guar Seed arrivals across the country were 2390 MT for 24-May-13, which was 490 MT
for corresponding day last year. According to market sources summer crop of Gujarat is
expected to be 2 lakh MT.
On Monday trade, Guar Seed rose to a high of 9040 Rs/qtl at 12.24 pm IST and is
expected to trade negative in the near term. Support is at 8650, 8615 levels and resistance
at 9010 & 9025, analyst said.
On daily charts, indicators were showing a negative phenomenon. RSI at 24.10 is bearish
and stochastic level is at lower levels. The commodity is trading below the 20 day SMA
at 9225 levels.
Guar Seed was launched on the bearish side with low volumes and open interest. The
commodity was also seen in volatile path. We expect NCDEX Guar Seed to trade on
bearish note.