INTR13/71/72-310
R. James Ferguson © 2005
Week 12:
The New International Relations From Crisis Management to Strategic Governance
Topics: 1. Political Realism as the Lessons of Conflict
2. Adaptive Change in Strategic Thought: From Human Security Towards
Humane Governance
3. Diversifying Pragmatism in the 21st Century
4. Bibliography and Further Reading
1. Political Realism as the Lessons of Conflict
Realism has provided some genuine insights into the international system, and
remains an important safeguard against 'wishful thinking' and 'utopian idealism', both
of which can lead to disastrous failures in international policy, e.g. in the construction
of European affairs after World War I. As we saw in lecture 2, the realist tradition in
international relations is based on the very real experiences of conflict in human
affairs, and in the centrality of power in global politics. This tradition was well
established in ancient thinkers, both East and West. In ancient Greece, the historian
Thucydides wrote one of the first realist accounts of the dire necessities of state
leadership amid the problems of complex alliance systems and endemic warfare
(concerned with the 5th century Peloponnesian War). Similar problems emerged in
early China (8th-3rd centuries B.C.), and realist thought would strongly colour (though
not dominate) Chinese thinkers such as Sun Tzu and Sun Ping, and eventually even
influence modern leaders such as Chairman Mao (Sun 1991). Likewise, a realist
tradition would emerge early in Indian thought in the type of statecraft recommended
by Kautilya (for a range of such early systems of international relations, see Watson
1992). Interestingly enough, Chinese statement from 770 B.C. onwards tried a
combination of statecraft, diplomacy, and defensive wars to limit the power of
aggression, but this could generate a stable multi-state system (Creel 1970; Walker
1953).
Empire builders, of course, often relied on economic, military and religiously-defined
power to create and hold their extended territorial states, e.g. the Macedonians,
Romans, Chinese, the Muslim Caliphates, Persian, Mongolian, Spanish and British
empires. In different ways, each of these empires relied on military, economic and
political power to maintain themselves, though religious elements were often also
used to launch phases of expansion or maintain ideological dominance. In the modern
period, combinations of transition from earlier kingdoms, military ability,
political opportunism, and nationalist aspiration have been used to create
modern states, e.g. Germany and Italy, or to fragment existing states into smaller new
states, e.g. as in region of former Yugoslavia and the former Soviet Union. Nationbuilding then, often relies on the realist use of force, alongside the cultural forces
of nationalism and the politics of national identity.
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We can review some of the key layers of the realist position in international
relations, which include:
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The effort to look at actual 'real' situation in the world, including negative
aspects.
An emphasis on power, and augmentation of power in international relations.
An emphasis on the state as the key actor in international relations.
An emphasis on national interests as the basis for the motivation of leadership
groups.
An emphasis on behaviour and outcomes, not ideas.
A reliance on a negative view of human nature as being essentially self-interested
An emphasis on elite leadership, plus a mobilised mass following, though genuine
participation is often limited.
Ideas and values are often used to support the regime, and thus are accorded a
real but subordinate role in power formation and utilisation (see Morgantheau
1985).
An emphasis on strategy and power projection in the international system.
At the same time there are real dangers in becoming addicted to a narrow realist
position, which has now emerged as an ideology justifying the status quo. When
survival or power dominance is at stake, or relative position within economic and
diplomatic hierarchies, then self-interest may be both misunderstood and far from
enlightened (for such psychological factor during periods of crisis, see Farrar 1988;
Morganthau 1985). This means that leaders may over-react, in part due to domestic
political pressures and the need to gain support within democracies. The result was
anything but a sober and realistic assessment of their situation. In such
conditions, assessments of power and power balance may also become distorted. The
key point, moreover, is that under conditions of intense conflict, excessive fear or
hope, the realist use of power may not always just based just on rational
assessments - a range of other factors including nationalism, stereotyping and
demonisation may be brought into play, e.g. the range of such mis-perceptions in the
public arena in relation to the cultures of Iraq and Iran, in part drawing on 'Persian'
stereotypes (see Seymour 2004).
In the same way, much of the international relations discipline today, though rightly
concerned with strategic conflicts, political realism, and international competition, has
been conditioned by the experiences of World War II and the subsequent experience
of the Cold War period. Many institutions for global governance, e.g. the UN,
UNSC, the IMF, World Bank and related agencies were born out of this period,
and sought to promote peace, trade and one vision of development, but conditioned
by the experience of war and the leadership of a core group of victor nations. In
spite of some reform, extension and adaptation, e.g. of international financial
institutions and new emphases on environment and development via UN conferences
and agencies, it is not certain that these overlapping agencies can effectively
implement the tasks they have set themselves, e.g. global financial stability, 'weak
sustainability environmentally or the Millennium Development Goals (see lectures 6,
7, 11). Nor is it certain that Inter-Governmental Agencies (IGOs) are well suited to the
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needs of the 21st century, including the diffuse transnational challenges of
international terrorism, civil war, refugees and labour flows, economic instability,
transboundary environmental problems or conflict over key resources (see Le Billon
2005; Klare 2002).
In other words, the intense and largely negative experiences of earlier periods have
influenced the judgement of many practitioners in foreign policy, international
governance and international institutions. The experiences of all thinkers and actors,
of course, influence their judgement and the assumptions used in analysis. But in
some cases this experience can be so intense that it conditions people to carry
forward models from an appropriate setting to new settings where they are no
longer appropriate. A few areas where this has learning under new conditions has
not occurred, or only evolved slowly, can be listed: 
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The collapse of the Soviet Union has sometimes been viewed as signalling the
end of Communism and Socialism globally, and end of ideologically driven
conflicts and history (Fukuyama 1992). As a result, some have turned to look at
China and argue that the same forces will fragment the People's Republic of
China, or at least in the medium lead to the end of its unique political system and
increasing pressure for democracy (for such expectations, see Terrill 2005; Schell
2004; Segal 1994; Segal and Goodman 1994). The two cases, however, are not
that analogous: not only is Communism in China affected by what Deng
Xiaoping called 'Chinese Characteristics', but China has much stronger ethnic
cohesion with minorities less dominant in most of their homelands (92% of
China is ethnic Chinese). Furthermore, 'institutional learning' (for this
approach, see Haas 2000) would suggest that the Chinese leadership and many
people in China have learnt from observing what happened in the Soviet Union
and will intentionally avoid such transformations, allowing economic transition
and greater political openness but no immediate transition into a democracy with
opposition parties (for these issues see Schell 2004; Nathan 1993a & 1993b;
Nathan & Shi 1993). For China itself, only Tibet, Xinjiang and Taiwan are likely
to exhibit such trends politically, and the PRC has relative power preponderance
within Tibet and Xinjiang itself. Some economic and cultural decentralisation is
underway, is not likely to force rapid transition (for the problems of
'monoculturalism' in China, see Dreyer 1999). Furthermore, by allowing
economic reform, the regime has managed to meet some of the needs and
expectations of key segments of the population (beginning with the 'peasants'),
thereby avoiding extreme political destabilisation. A similar path has been
unevenly pursued with the cautious economic reforms and preparing for a future
collective leadership in Cuba (see Robinson 2000), but followed by a harsh clamp
down in the regime through late 2002-2004, suggesting increased pressure on the
Castro government. We cannot directly move from the Soviet and Eastern
Europe experiences to universal arguments concerning the fate of communism,
socialism and other regimes (Palmer 1997). More generally, PRC has mobilised
elements of culturalism, nationalism, and economic growth to support its regime
domestically, while using elements of soft and hard power to gradually assert
itself regionally and in global affairs (see lectures 4 & 5). On this basis, it will be
very difficult to either contain China, or to directly 'absorb' it into the existing
regime of international norms and institutions.
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Containment and competitive policies can also run along too-well grovved
channel. Tensions between the US and PRC, for example, tend to work along a
cycle of mutual interests (trade, WTO entry for China, PRC support in easing the
North Korea crisis through 2003-2005), then diverge as incidents remind the two
leaderships of their different view of world order. The temptation to use the
past strategy of containment, however, exists, because the strategy was seen
(from one point of view) to work against an even stronger opponent, the USSR.
It seems that the view of China as a 'strategic competitor' may have been reduced
over the last decade (Bei 2001; Quinlan 2002), but have been resurrected in the
last few years as China's diplomatic and military leverage seem to have increased
in the wider Asia-Pacific through 2003-2005). Here, simplistic lessons from the
past may have dangerous implications, including a possible round of military
re-armament in the region, as well as regional diplomatic competition. Rather
different lessons seem to have developed in the prospects for a strengthening
India as a regional nuclear power, with the US and China moving to cautiously
accommodate this new reality, though serious concerns over nuclear proliferation
remain even as India moves to provide greater safety of its nuclear power
programs (for these issues and the Convention on Nuclear Safety, see Tellis 2002;
Xinhua 2005a; Nason 2005). US policy here through 2000-2005 may be simple
power-balancing, or a more powerful concept of tiered multipolarity where new
powers are allowed to emerge so long as they are partially incorporated in a
network of IGOs and do not directly threat US-coalition dominance (Ferguson
2003).
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Other thinkers have taken the lessons from world wars and global competition in
the military arena and simply applied them to the economic arena. Thus,
visions of intensified competition in trade, investment and fiscal flows have led
to efforts to increase trade and reduce the negative impact of trade deficits,
debt default, market collapse, liquidity squeezes, and currency crises. This loose
pattern of governance now partly run through several institutional
arrangements such as GATT, WTO, the IMF, and the Bank of International
Settlements, BIS (see Roberts 1998; Spence 2004). In spite of reform of the IMF,
World Bank and BIS through 1998-2005, and the efforts of the G8 (2002-2005)
and the United Nations International Conference on Financing for Development
(March 2002) it is not certain that even with increased resources that these
institutions can ensure national, regional and global financial stability due to the
increase flow and speed of financial networks in the 21st century (see lecture 6).
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Countries such as India and China, precisely because of their growing economic
strength, are viewed as sources of future threat but are themselves threatened by
growing needs that can only be sustained by an international agenda. In
this context, it is true that there now exists greater competition for strategic
resources such as oil, gas (e.g. in the Persian Gulf, Caspian Sea region, South
China Sea, as well as specific pressures on Nigeria and Venezuela), fisheries, and
even over control of river waters, as in the case of Syria and Turkey.). Likewise,
hot conflicts over resources might subject victors to penalties that might make
resource extraction much less profitable (see Klare 2002), but elsewhere resource
conflicts over diamonds, timber and to some degree oil have heightened internal
conflicts, e.g in Sierra Leone, Angola, and Nigeria (Le Billon 2005). In the long
run, however, there may be a nexus between resource conflict, poor
environmental protection, and reduced human security.
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Likewise, competitive advantages can be gained through leverage applied through
groups such as the WTO for those countries better suited to work with these
institutional norms, e.g. tensions between Indian and the U.S. and China and the
U.S. over trade liberalisation, piracy and non-tariff barriers. This can be viewed as
a kind of 'war of norms' (Bell 2000) in which affluent countries deeply engaged
in the international system since the end of World War II have a distinct
advantage over poorer or less involved states. A wider, more diffuse conflict
between the 'North and South' has been waged, first over issues of fair economic
development and debt relief, but now over issues connected with protecting the
environment, and fair trade and investment policies. Likewise, globalisation
managed 'from above' by advanced nations and strong institutions has
begun to be challenged by organised solidarity 'from below' which demands
a say in how the life of local communities is managed (see Herod et al. 1997;
Brecher et al. 2002). Globalisation, then, has become a highly contested area
in terms of both economics, cultural commodities and human rights in the
broader sense (see Stiglitz 2002). What has begun to emerge from these analyses
is that trade and economics does not always have to be played out in a zero-sum
game (I win, you lose), but can take a wide variety of forms, including mutual
wins in a growing world economy with strong legal regulation (positive-sum or
win-win games). However, wider cross-impacts and the issues of accountability
and responsible for negative impacts (on the poor, vulnerable local communities
and the environment) have not yet been consistently allocated in the current
pattern of global governance (see lectures 5, 6, 8, 11).
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The realist paradigm has also been 'ported across' into the area of culture and
religion. Here cultures, civilisations, and religious are viewed as potential causes
of conflict and for intensifying regional wars along fracture lines, e.g. in former
Yugoslavia with its religious divides, the Middle East and South Asia (see lecture
4; Huntington 1993; Huntington 1996). As we have seen, there are some
exaggerations to this claim, especially since cultures are adaptive, and
civilisations and religions can engage in productive dialogue and mutual
cross-fertilisation (see Küng 1997; Küng 1991; Ahluwalia & Mayer 1994).
Culture is important, including differences between various strategic cultures, but
once again their interaction cannot be viewed accurately through the narrow
conceptions of game theory or zero-sum games. Attempts to invoke new
'crusades' or 'jihads' are hard to sustain and not very credible in the modern
period, even with the heightening over tensions since through 2001-2005.
However, these tensions have been sustained by continued patterns of highprofile violence, attendant security clamp-downs (e.g. in the US, UK, France,
and to a lesser extent Australia), and distrust of religious ideology. The down-side
of this may be more marginalisation for Islamic communities and the further
collapse of multiculturalism as a viable option in countries such as the UK and
Australia.
Putting these issues another way, although the lessons of war and competition are
important, they are not the only lessons which can be learned from the events of
the twentieth century. Crisis management 'after the fact' has been one way that
institutions have adapted to deal with conflict, ranging from military containment,
coercive diplomacy, to long-term sanctions. Fortunately, these types of lessons have
been useful, but have been complemented by a wider range of options which are
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proactive as well as reactive. New ideas drawn from 'the new institutionalism', from
constructivism, from cultural and strategic studies, and cosmopolitan theories of
governance (see lecture 11) have begun to suggest the way the international system is
shaped by patterns of engagement among organisations and creative human activity
(see Herod et al. 1997; Henderson 1998; Hudson 1997; Hasselbladh 2000; Narine
1998). Here, some realist theories have been adapted quite effectively to incorporate
IGOs, NGOs, international civil movements, and an extension of the notion of power
into areas of dialogue, persuasion, and institutional building. We can see this clearly
in a couple of examples.
2. Adaptive Change in Strategic Thought: From Human Security Towards
Humane Governance
We can see two aspects of adaptive change in the serious effort to widen notions of
security from a purely military focus to include a much wider range of threats and
problems which seem more common for many nations in the late 20th century.
Alongside this, there has been an effort to humanise, and to a lesser degree
democratise, globalisation trends and flows.
Comprehensive security involves a more inclusive and wider adaptation of
traditional patterns of strategic thought to the current international climate. There has
recently been considerable interest in redefining security, strategic and defensive
doctrines to be more inclusive than the past consideration of straightforward military
concerns. In large measure, this is due to the recognition that military power, by
itself, is unable to secure the fundamental purposes of defence (Cheeseman 1988).
This has been clearly demonstrated in terms of international terrorism, transnational
security challenges, and fundamental problems in the international order which cannot
be managed by single nations. Therefore, comprehensive security includes issues of
adequate resource security, access to needed trade routes, cooperative relations among
states, and protection of the environment (Dickens 1997). Comprehensive security in
new forms has been deployed by the EU, NATO, Japan and China. In the case of
China, it has supported a string move towards multilateral regional politics in East
Asia, a major shift in policy through 1997-2005 (see Kuik 2005).
Likewise, there has been a renewed emphasis on human security, i.e. of individuals,
families, local communities and indigenous groups, in the face of a wide range of
threats, e.g. natural disasters, environmental collapse, poverty, and warfare (for case
studies, see Lizee 2002). Human security has formed a major part of recent Canadian
and Norwegian foreign policy, as well as forming a central aspect of debates within
the UNDP, the United Nations Development Program (Axworthy 1999; Axworthy &
Vollebaek 1998). Though no single definition of human security has been accepted,
this shift of interpretation has given a renewed emphasis to humanitarian concerns and
the protection of the weak within the international system, and put some pressure on
IGOs such as ASEAN, the OSCE, and the OAS (Organisation of American States).
Likewise, it requires a concern for human rights, community stability, and proper
economic development within a secure environment (see lecture 3). At the same time,
it has become recognised that humanitarian intervention (whether in Somalia,
Bosnia, East Timor or Kosovo) is an extremely complex, expensive and risky
procedure. This is especially the case when it is unauthorised by clearly UNSC
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resolutions and clear mobilisation of international law, a factor complicated by nonstate actors (including guerrilla groups, criminal networks, and terrorists
organisations). New research in human security in particular tries to find ways to
reconcile global, regional, national and human levels of security with the
minimum of destructive conflict (see Henk 2005; Bidwai 1999; Magno 1997). In
particular, overly weak or aggressively strong governments can in fact reduce the
security of their citizens, neighbouring populations and even strong states in the
international system.
In part, this broadening of the notion of security has been a direct result of events and
changing international environments in the 1980's and 1990's (Maik 1992c) and a
redefinition of the nature of national power. National power is selectively
enhanced or restricted by regional and international organisations. The trend towards
regionalism and regionalisation is significant, and is in general more likely to
reduce rather than increase hot conflicts, e.g. moderations of conflict through
organisations such as ASEAN, the ARF (ASEAN Regional Forum) and APEC, and
the reduction of conflict through expanding European Union structures that have
engaged in active dialogue with Russia and the Ukraine. This type of cooperative
security need not be based on deep integration (as in the EU and NATO), but can
be based on looser type of regionalism, called 'soft regionalism': This cooperative approach can be termed 'soft governance'. It has greater utility in
providing a way forward than that of 'soft regionalism', which often infers a loose,
informal integration centred on consensus as in the ASEAN system, but in the wider
Asia-Pacific setting may allow strong external influence by economic powers, e.g.
Japanese or Chinese economic networks. 'Soft regionalism' also implies very limited
mechanisms for establishing norms, and in the case of the Asia-Pacific groupings can
be marred by real cultural differences between Asia and North America, as well as by
gaps between rich and poor nations in Asia. 'Soft governance' can, moreover, be
viewed as the application of 'soft' power within a regional or multilateral setting. That
such governance is not an idealistic and impractical construct can be seen through
the considerable progress of ASEAN and the ARF down to mid-1997, the ability of a
number of international actors to cope with the Mexican economic crisis of 1994-1995,
and the renewed effort by ASEAN and APEC to adapt to global challenges through
1998-2001. Such patterns of 'soft' cooperation remain important because of the need
to continue nation-building without generating threat perceptions. (Ferguson 2001).
We can assess some of these changes by briefly looking at some of the areas where
environmental, human development and national security concerns have begun
to interact (see Stern 1995; Hassan 1991; Pirages 1991; Westing 1989). We can
illustrate these themes by briefly listing some of the environment and resource
issues which are directly impacting on national security and international
stability: 
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Pollution with related health and climate impact causing international
tensions, e.g. between Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia during the
repeated great fires that have caused sustained regional air pollution (1997-2000),
and over coal-based air pollution among China, South Korea and Japan (Dupont
1998, pp11-14). The estimated cost of the Indonesian bush-fires to regional
countries in terms of health, tourism and agricultural losses for 1998 is in the
order of 6 billion dollars (Dupont 1998, p12). In wider settings, ongoing deficits
in environmental spending and remediation may set future limits on growth
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in PRC, India and Southeast Asia, as well as set agricultural limits for Australia
and parts of Central Asia. At the level of international climate politics, the Kyoto
Protocol and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) are at best a limited success in spite of coming into force through
2004-205 (see lecture 7). Future agreements will need bring on board
developing countries into emission targets (planned for negotiation towards
commitments through 2013-2017). The US has since floated the idea of a new,
technology-based approach, the Asia-Pacific Clean Development and
Climate Partnership, to reduce carbon emissions, trying to set up dialogue
among the US, Australia, India, China, South Korea and Japan. However, it is
not clear that this would merely undermine the Kyoto Protocol, and no clear
targets have been set in the new agreement (Hodge & Uren 2005)
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Water and soil pollution directly attacking the food chain, and undermining
agriculture, as well as riverine and marine fisheries, as has occured in parts of
China, Vietnam, the Philippines and India (Dupont 1998, p15). In the broader
context food security has not been confirmed for parts of Africa through (e.g.
Niger, Sudan, Ethiopia, Malawi), while under-nourishment remains a real
problem for poor communities in South Asia, parts of Latin America, and wartorn or crisis areas. In this context, poverty remains a major debating point, with
diverse views on whether globalisation has reduced or intensified this problem.
Depending on your definition, 1 or 2 billion people remain in real poverty
globally, with real differences between these projections. Although the
Millennium Development Goals and the G8 have tried to get some leverage on
this problem, poverty seem entwined with security, political and
environmental problems that make it hard to tackle unless systematic and
sustained effort at different levels is applied to the problem over the next two
decades. The problem and related goals have been established as an aim with
voluntary targets through major conferences through 1992-2003: Environment, food security, poverty, and land degradation were brought
together in three major international documents: Agenda 21 (UNCED 1992),
the UN Millennium declaration (UN 2000), and the Plan of implementation of
the World Summit on Sustainable Development (UN 2003). Agenda 21 is one
of the most balanced and cogently argued of all international documents. As
compared with the Stockholm meeting 20 years earlier which focused on
pollution, Agenda 21 gives equal place to development, and hence to the
environment as a productive resource. This meeting also drew wider attention
to the concept of sustainable development, in particular, the conservation of
natural resources for use by future generations. The Millennium declaration
listed nine Millennium Goals, the first of which was 'Eradicate extreme poverty
and hunger' and the seventh, 'Ensure environmental sustainability' (UN 2000
2004). The World Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg,
2002) took Agenda 21 as its starting point and produced a Plan of
implementation (UNCED 2003). Sustainability became the key, with emphasis
on protecting and managing the natural resource base of economic and social
development and recognition of the linkages between poverty, the
environment and the use of natural resources. A welcome feature is its
recognition that agriculture plays a crucial role in addressing the needs of a
growing global population, and is inextricably linked to poverty eradication.
The targets of halving the numbers suffering from hunger and poverty are
repeated, with a target date of 2015, adding an objective of halving the
numbers without access to safe drinking water. Again, however, in the
outputs of this Summit, the UN forecasts of population increases in the
developing world are taken as background, given, data. (Young 2005)
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A boom in the demand for energy generally, with very strong trends in the
Asia-Pacific, which will intensify disputes over gas and oil reserves, especially in
disputed areas (Dupont 1998, pp25-35). It must be noted that East Asian
countries usually have petroleum and gas energy stocks of only around 40 days
(20 days for China) of domestic use (Dupont 1998, pp29-30). Long-term
demands for increased gas and oil are a major part of PRC national planning (see
Chang 2001). Although Indonesia and China could dig deeper into their own
underground reserves, for countries such as Japan and South Korea, a simple loss
of petroleum and gas imports over a 20-40 day period would result in a major
international crisis. More generally, even countries with strong energy access such
as the US and Russia have sought to use low prices and easy access to boost their
economies and increase political domestic stability. In this context it is possible to
argue that countries as diverse as Iraq, Iran, and Nigeria have suffered from a
resource curse, i.e. strong resources that become the basis of either international
interference or over-dependence on a narrow economic structure that relies on
international markets (see Le Billon 2005).
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Basic requirements in the international system are often not well managed.
Soil fertility in intensive settings, sustainable agriculture, waste management,
megacities cities in the developing world, access to basic infrastructure remain
uncertain for up to one third of the planet (see lecture 1, 7, 9). Fresh water,
traditionally a renewable resource, is now in heavily increased demand for use by
urban populations, for agriculture, and in industrial processes, leading to
decreased availability of clean water globally, and in Asia-Pacific particularly
(Dupont 1998, p59-74). Water disputes have intensified tensions in the Jordan
River basin, the Nile and Euphrates river systems in the Middle East, and water
issues in South Asia and the Mekong River have to be carefully managed to avoid
such disputes in the future (Thapliyal 1996; see lecture 1). It has been suggested
that by the 2025, up to two thirds of the world's population will be under
conditions of 'water stress' (Dupont 1998, p59) due to lack of clean and reliable
water supplies.
It is not surprising, on this basis, that there is a direct link among poverty, slow
development and a lack of human security. Using a compound indicator such as the
'index of human insecurity' (using a range of economic, environmental, social and
institutional factors) it is possible to map this against a variable reflecting the rounded
quality of life summarised by the Human Development Index (commonly used in UN
institutions). This yields the un-surprising fact that a low level of development
equates generally with a lack of human security, though crises or short-term
conflicts can complicate this picture (see Lonergan et al. 2000).
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(from Lonergan et al. 2000)
In summary, global governance trends suggest a n effort to set the standards to
humanise globalisation, but serious gaps remain in the most basic factors of
human development, human security, and access to basic resource needs.
3. Diversifying Pragmatism in the 21st Century
Another key aspect thought about the global system over the last decade has been the
ability to include (sometimes reluctantly) a wider range of alternative patterns of
thinking and institutional alternatives than before. In large measure, this response
has been due to the fact that international and transnational forces are much stronger
than before, and are beginning to create a truly global pattern of interdependence, as
well as strong flows of wealth, information and contact that run alongside or around
inter-national linkages. Likewise, the powers of the state seem to have been in many
ways eroded, making the state a still important but more disturbed actor in the
global system (Sørensen 1996).
Some of these alternative patterns include: 
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The 'Realism Against Idealism debate' vs Responsible Global Politics (Küng
1997, pp1-90).
International Anarchy vs Internationalism and an emerging International Society
of not yet a Global Community (See Henderson 1998; Iriye 1997).
Cultural differences as a source of conflict (Huntington 1993; Huntington 1996)
vs cultural differences as a resource of diversity and problem solving.
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Extractive Economies vs Sustainable Economies (weak or strong sustainability).
Traditional Economic and Financial Systems vs the need for Global Financial
Reform, plus added patterns of financial activity including Islamic Banking,
Grameen Banking, Micro-loan Schemes, and small community business
initiatives. These schemes augment rather than replace tradition banking and
investment arrangements.
Normative Globalisation verses 'Planetisation' (positive future visions of global
order), 'balanced globalism' and 'cosmopolitanism', whereby pluralist ideas are
beginning to shape international networks of ideas and expectations (see lecture
11; for a recent spin on this see, Smyth 2001).
The State as the main International Actor vs a range of multi-level actors, e.g.
local communities, cities (megacities, World Cities, sister cities), corporations,
INGOs, IGOs, regional groupings, global level organisations (Sørensen 1996).
Revolutionary change vs Strategic Non-violent Action or Low-Violent People
Power, combined with transnational mobilisation strategies (see lecture 11).
The need to re-balance and fine tune global institutions to achieve a better
balance of international justice. As noted by Amartya Sen: The central issue of contention is not globalization itself, nor is it the use of
the market as an institution, but the inequity in the overall balance of
institutional arrangements which produces very unequal sharing of the
benefits of globalization. The question is not just whether the poor, too, gain
something from globalization, but whether they get a fair share and a fair
opportunity. There is an urgent need for reforming institutional arrangements-in addition to national ones--in order to overcome both the errors of omission
and those of commission that tend to give the poor across the world such
limited opportunities. Globalization deserves a reasoned defense, but it also
needs reform. (Sen 2002)
In a sense, then, people, organisations and governments are being offered a much
wider range of tools, resources and organisations for creative, low-violent change
in the current century. These tools and institutions allow us to think about the
international system in diverse ways, engage and participate in change even if on a
modest scale, and to be aware of a much wider ambit of the dynamic transformations
that are occurring. It is crucial that such change be pursued and further developed if a
positive and sustainable global system is to emerge in the following decades. At
present, the global system is far from complete, and seems to be a non-convergent,
contested mix of power and cooperative orientations. This may be due to ongoing
transitions, or because the global network of governance has not yet been completely
built or linked together.
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Human Insecurity Remains A Crucial Problem Globally (from Lonergan et al. 2000)
It might be worthwhile to give one last example of this wider, inclusive strategy of
thinking about diversity. Religious differences have sometimes been presented as a
major source of conflict, e.g. in Ireland, the Middle East, and South Asia. There is, of
course, some truth to this, especially when religion is used as an excuse to ignore the
claims of others, and used as a pretext for violence. However, most often it is the
misunderstanding of religion which intensifies conflict and deepens disaster. Hans
Küng has demonstrated this clearly in assessing the supposed role of religion in the
Yugoslavian conflict. One of the problems in modern international relations analysis
is that often religion is not taken seriously enough, due to a 'secularizing
reductivism' which sees only material issues of power as worth noting (Küng 1997,
p120). Küng notes that in the 1980s no serious analysis of ethnic and religious
differences in Yugoslavia was made in foreign affairs offices in Germany or France,
nor in London or Washington (Küng 1997, p122). As a result, several phases of
erroneous policies were made in relation to the ethnic crisis in Yugoslavia (Küng
1997, pp122-124): 


The first error, made by the EU, UN and U.S. was to try to insist that some form
of unified Yugoslavian state was the best option.
The second error was a phase of different recognition of small sovereign states
by other states without the means to protect these newcomers. Germany
recognised Croatia and Slovenia at an early date, as did the Vatican, regarding
Croatia as a 'bulwark of (Western) Christianity' (Küng 1997, p123).
Phase 3 allowed the drawing of arbitrary borders to create a settlement in Bosnia,
thereby effectively rewarding Serbian (and Croatian) aggression in the region
(Küng 1997, p124).
Küng goes on to show that all the Churches in the region also failed to back up the
idea of peace, and only tried to build reconciliation with Muslim groups when events
had already seriously deteriorated (Küng 1997, p126). Put frankly, it was not so much
religion, as a misuse of religion and the reluctance of the international community
to chart a path for low violent reform that failed to avoid the holocaust in the
Week 12
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Balkans. In the current period, it is crucial that blockages in dialogue do not create a
similar set of incorrect signals in relation to Islam at the global level.
These considerations should not lead us to a complacent optimism. Such opportunities
should be grasped to avoid much greater problems in the future, while a wide range
of global problems have indeed not been solved and remain deeply problematic (see
above). Moreover, misunderstanding these key issues and not grasping available tools
will only tend to deepen such conflicts, reducing the political will to look for ways to
manage problems. To date, fairly simplistic and naive interpretations of international
relations, parading under the respectable titles of 'political realism', 'economic
rationalism' or 'humanitarian idealism', have helped create problems as much as solve
them. A new pragmatism, relying on a wide range of viewpoints, tools and actors,
is needed to complement the insights of a more genuine realism that grasps the
conditions of the 21st century.
4. Bibliography and Further Reading
Resources
The International Labour Organization is 'the UN specialized agency which seeks the
promotion of social justice and internationally recognized human and labour
rights. It was founded in 1919 and is the only surviving major creation of the
Treaty of Versailles which brought the League of Nations into being and it
became the first specialized agency of the UN in 1946.' See http://www.ilo.org/
The International Network for Environment and Security has a range of interesting
publications, links and bibliographies that can be found at
http://www.gechs.org/INES/ineshome.shtml
A wide range of Open Access Journals can be found at www.doaj.org (IR related
journals will be found under the Social Sciences and Sociology subheadings.)
The Carnegie Council has some interesting perspectives on Global Policy Initiatives,
Poverty, and Democratising Globalisation via http://www.policyinnovations.org/
The Global Policy Forum is a web-based resource with critical commentary on
major international actors, including the UNSC, NGO's and the US on the basis
of increasing accountability. Located at http://www.globalpolicy.org/
Further Reading
SEN, Amartya " How to judge globalism: global links have spread knowledge
and raised average living standards. But the present version of globalism
needlessly harms the world's poorest", The American Prospect, 13 no. 1,
January 1, 2002, pA2-7 [Internet Access via Infotrac Database]
BRECHER, Jeremy et al. Globalization from Below, The Power of Solidarity,
Cambridge, South End Press, 2002
CASE, William "Sayonara to the Strong State: From Government to Governance
in the Asia-Pacific", in MAIDMENT, Richard, GOLDBLATT, David &
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MITCHELL, Jeremy (eds.) Governance in the Asia-Pacific, London,
Routledge, 1998, pp250-274
HENK, Dan "Human security: relevance and implications", Parameters, 35 no. 2,
Summer 2005, pp91-106 [Access via Infotrac Database]
KLARE, Michael Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict, N.Y., Henry
Holt and Company, 2002
KUIK, Cheng-Chwee "Multilateralism in China's ASEAN policy: its evolution,
characteristics, and aspiration", Contemporary Southeast Asia, 27 no. 1, April
2005, pp102-123 [Access via Infotrac Database]
LE BILLON, Philippe Fuelling War: Natural Resources and Armed Conflict, London,
IISS, Adelphi Paper 373, 2005
LIZEE, P. " Human Security in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia", Contemporary
Southeast Asia, 24 no. 3, December 2002, pp509-537 [Access via Infotrac
Database]
Scenarios for the Future of United States-China Relations 2001-2010, Nautilus Institute,
2000 [Available in PDF format at
http://www.nautilus.org/enviro/scenarios.html]
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