ECOLOGY AND POPULATION1
BY ROSA LINDA VALENZONA
In modern consciousness Ecology evokes catastrophic images of
uncertainties – a population bomb ticking to “go off?” Are we in imminent
danger of famine and hunger? Is the planet earth dying? 2 These visions of
impending doom are blamed on “irresponsible breeding” and emergency
solution – usually population control –is considered imperative to ward off the
apocalypse. These solutions often treat people as impulsive and uncontrolled
sources of great social harm and in need of strong social discipline. The Catholic
Church due to its “conservative stand” on contraception and abortion is accused
of encouraging this irresponsible breeding. Many Catholics, though adhering to
the doctrine of the Church on life issues, entertain doubts on the issues relating
Ecology to population.
These views originated with Thomas Malthus whose essay in 1798
predicted terrible famines from population growth and the consequent
imbalance in the proportion between the natural increase population and food.3
Writing forty years ago Simon Kuznets remarked that since Malthus first
published his famous Essay on Population in 1798, the world population has
grown nearly six times larger, while food output and consumption per person
are considerably higher now, and there has been an unprecedented increase both
in life expectancies and in general living standards.4 Malthusianism has found
support in two major interest groups – the racist groups who look at the poor as
an underclass who form part of the unfit racial stock and the environmentalist
groups who are proponents of the radical view that places man at the same
footing as the rest of creation, if not lower.
The most famous restatement of Malthusianism in defense of the
environment was made by Paul Ehrlich in 1968 in his books cited above. This
1
Given on December 7, 2005, Manila during the International Congress on Bioethics on Evangelium Vitae
ten years after, organized by the Pontifical Academy for Life and the University of Santo Thomas.
2
These apocalyptic views are seriously argued by Paul Ehrlich his books Population Bomb
(Ballantine, 1968) and Population Explosion (Simon and Shuster, 1990), the latter co-authored with
his wife Anne H. Ehrlich.
3
Thomas Robert Malthus, Essay on the Principle of Population As It Affects the Future Improvement of
Society with Remarks on the Speculation of Mr. Godwin, M. Condorcet, and Other Writers (London: J.
Johnson, 1798), Chapter 8; in the Penguin classics edition, An Essay on the Principle of
Population (1982)
4
See Simon Kuznets, Modern Economic Growth (Yale University Press, 1966).
was then followed by the publication in 1972 of Limits to Growth by the Club of
Rome. The latter was an open declaration of war against modern science,
technology and the human population that produced them. Underlying these
radical views is a biocentrism that considers any alteration of the natural order as
immoral based on an environmental theology that is nature centered. This has
justified the promotion of voluntary genocide or population control on a global
scale. Thus the population control program necessarily spawns the attitude that
treats the human embryo as a mere biological material like any other biological
material, a mentality that is the forerunner of the culture of death – euthanasia,
assisted suicide, embryonic stem cell research, cloning, etc. –practices that belittle
human life.
Due to their ideological roots both branches show an understandable lack
of interest in scientific inquiry to resolve issues of fact making such scientific
endeavors a mere exercise in futility. However, the Church has wisely advised
economists and demographers to undertake a deeper research in order to
provide a reasoned rejection of these ideologies for Catholics who want to
uphold human dignity and protect the family.5
The starting point of such a reasoned rejection has to be laid out in an
authentically Christian anthropology and following the tradition set by John Paul
II by going back to Sacred Scriptures.
SCRIPTURAL FOUNDATIONS
Since man is different from the rest of the living species the framework for
understanding of how man relates to his environment has to be found in natural
law. Genesis 1:286 and Genesis 1:317 are two passages that ethical principles for
evaluating human interaction with environment:
1. Subordination: This passage has always been understood by societies of
the Judeo-Christian culture to emphasize the subordination of the earth and all
the life in it, to man. All the other living organisms reproduce and flourish
according to the inflexible laws of biology and instinct, but only man was given
5
Ethical and Pastoral Dimensions of Population Trends, Pontifical Council for the Family, May 13, 1994
Genesis 1:28: “And God blessed them, saying: Increase and multiply, and fill the earth, and
subdue it, and rule over the fishes of the sea, and the fowls of the air, and all living creatures that
move upon the earth.”
7
Genesis 1:31: “And God saw all the things that he had made, and, behold, it was very good”
6
this express command. He is the only one gifted with autonomous intelligence
to make the choice. 8
2. Dominion: His rational nature makes man capable of purposive
activity–work. He can define a problem, formulate a solution and put it into
effect. Flowing from this rationality is also the capacity for science –
understanding the natural processes and the capacity for technology – applying
scientific laws to formulate solutions to daily problems. The bees have not
innovated since they built their hives in their thousand years of existence but
man has progressed from cave dweller to inhabit skyscrapers in populous cities
or warmly heated houses in the arctic climes or cool air-conditioned tropical
bungalows.
This incalculable creativity fueled by an ethical orientation
illustrates man’s superior capacity to adjust to his environment far exceeding
that of any other living creature.
3. Stewardship: Dominion over nature is limited by the duty to safeguard
it for the future. He should cultivate a natural moral concern for it “giving
what is due” to nature, to the environment, and indeed to the whole of
creation, treating all creatures down to the last sub-atomic particle with due
regard to nature, revealed in the physical and biological laws they obey. 9 Man
collaborates with God in helping physical creation achieve its own perfection.
This triple mandate possesses its own internal logic – population growth
can be sustained because by unraveling the natural processes man subdues
nature and discovers the key to harvesting of its bounty. Stewardship is the
prudent means to achieve sustainability part of enabling nature to achieve its
fulfillment. This environmental ethic enabled the Judeo-Christian culture to
achieve material progress thus bringing material development to its fullest
bloom. To argue that man’s irresponsible breeding has a negative impact on his
environment is to question his superior capacity to adjust to his environment.
The Judeo-Christian culture is essentially theocentric, placing God at the very center of all
created order. This statement of an anthropocentric principle is really made in opposition to
biocentrism which is strongly condemned by the Church Magisterium. Thus n. 463 of the
Compendium of the Social Doctrine of the Church rejects ecocentrism and biocentrism as a conceptual
basis of the environment since this proposes that the ontological and axiological difference
between man and other living beings be eliminated with the biosphere considered a biotic unity
of undifferentiated value.
9
Rev. Joseph M. de Torre, From Environment to Environmentalism, posted at
http://www.catholiceducation.org
8
The history of man’s survival from ancient to modern times with a special
focus on his interaction with his environment is the best evidence for evaluating
the interaction of ecology and population.
THE EVIDENCE OF HISTORY
Astrophysicists tell of how uniquely made the planet earth is for
supporting complex life: it is a rocky terrestrial planet with plate tectonics to
recycle nutrients; the right kind of atmosphere; a large, well placed moon to
contribute to tides and stabilize the tilt of the planet’s axis, the right distance
from the right kind of single star in a near circular orbit – to maintain liquid
water on its surface.10 Without surface water creating the greenhouse effect the
earth’s surface temperature would be –16 0 centigrade too cold to support the
carbon based life so important for human survival. This knowledge fills one
with awe at the greatness of Divine Providence in providing man with a unique
earth.
Anthropology and Archaeology tells us that man’s journey from the caves
to modern skyscrapers did not take place in a day; his unique abilities unfolded
in history as he struggled against the environment. The hunter of the Paleolithic
stage was a parasite living of the bounty of nature. Nature was always and
everywhere his mistress and mother. Behind the outward appearance beast and
plant, storm and thunder, rock and tree man saw a vague undifferentiated
supernatural power. The beasts are not merely a source of food supply, and an
occasional danger, they were mysterious beings which are in a sense superior to
man and nearer to the divine world. The Paleolithic man noted the laws and
rhythms and cycles of change in the life of nature—there is day and night,
summer and winter, birth and death; the rain falls and the grass grows, the seed
ripens; man did not see them as mechanical changes of material facts but as
divine mysteries to be adored with trembling. 11 As the climate improved with
the recession of the last great ice age, Late Paleolithic man gradually became
more settled and started staying in favorable spots close to waterways for longer
than previously.
The many indigenous tribes in the inner jungles of the major islands of the
Philippines such as the Mangyans of Mindoro and the Aetas of Central Luzon
10
Jay W. Richards and Guillermo Gonzalez, The Privileged Planet: How Our Place in the Cosmos is
Designed for Discovery (Regnery, 2004)
11
Christopher Dawson, The Religion of the North American Indians, at http://www.catholiceducation.org
exhibit culture of the Paleolithic hunters. They are more conscious of collective
ownership of ancestral domain than of private property. Their small population
allowed indigenous people to farm only a small portion of their land each year.
By the time they return to a given plot to plant, forest had reclaimed it. This
seeming disadvantage was in fact a huge advantage: forested land could be
cleared well enough for planting merely by slashing down the young forest
vegetation, burning it, and sowing seeds in the ash. Stumps of larger trees were
simply planted around. Neither plowing, nor even hoeing, was necessary. Such
"low-tech" farming paid off very handsomely for no more labor than it took. The
Danish economist, Ester Boserup documented this behavior among tribal
communities in underdeveloped countries in the African and South East Asia.12
Christopher Dawson states that the Neolithic age was not a mere change
in the manufacture of stone implements; it was a true change of life. Man ceased
to be a parasite on Nature, like the hunter, he learnt to cooperate with Nature –
to govern and direct her. From food-gatherer to food-producer—this was a
change revolutionizing his whole way of life, his social organization and manner
of settlement, his relation to his environment and to his fellowmen, his religion
and thought. The consecration of nature into the religious practices of the
Neolithic man could very well have led to the invention of agriculture and the
domestication of animals.13 The regular and continuous food supply meant
bigger populations could now live in settled and more secure areas.
Archaeologists explain that the construction of cities which was the beginning of
civilization implied the ability to generate agricultural surplus so that some
people ceased tilling the soil and became builders.
During the pre-modern times man was at the mercy of nature; cycles of
famine and abundance meant
occasional food shortages; this as
well as lack of knowledge of disease
prevention and cure kept mortality
rates high. Outbreaks of infectious
diseases such as influenza, scarlet
fever or the plague decimated the
adult population while lack of clean
drinking water, efficient sewage
12
Boserup, Ester, The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change under
Population Pressure (1965) Chicago: Aldine.
13
Op. cit.
disposal, and poor food hygiene caused low child survival. Water and food
borne diseases such as cholera, typhoid, dysentery and diarrhea were common
killers. Over much of pre-modern times birth and death rates were both very
high (30-50 per thousand). This made for a very slow world population growth,
estimated to be roughly .05% and doubling time of the order of 15,000 years.
World population reached the 1 billion mark in 1804. 14
This comparison of rates of survival between 17th century England and
current day Great Britain shows the effect of child mortality on age structure:
“Survivorship keeps track of the fate of a given birth cohort. They show the
percent still living at a given age. Nowadays in the developed world few
children die before reproduction. In Great Britain in 1999 only 1% of all children
born alive died by the age of five (compared to 10% in India and 35% in Niger).
However, 300 years ago it was quite a different matter, as the graph above
illustrates. In the 17th century in the city of York only 15% of the children made it
to the threshold of reproduction (15 years); only 10% made it to the age of 20.
With so few females living to reproduce, only a high fertility rate could maintain
the population.”15
14
The graph came from Keith Montgomery’s article, The Demographic Transition published at
http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm
15
Ibid.
In England this state of affairs led to the enactment of the Elizabethan
Poor Laws obliging the parishes to provide food to the rural poor, an attempt to
ward off hunger riots and revolutions. The Poor laws continued to be enacted up
to the late 17th century to mitigate the effects of enclosures on the increasing mass
of rural poor. This was the dismal reality Thomas Malthus presented when he
wrote the famous Essay on the Principles of Population in 1798 formulating the
famous Malthusian Theorem.16
POPULATION AND AGRICULTURE
However Malthus dismal prognostication did not foresee the Agricultural
Revolution was unfolding in 18th century England. Crop rotation, selective
breeding, seeds drill technology, and the invention of numerous farm
machineries as a consequence of the enclosures movement increased farm output
released the labor force needed by the urban industries.
What brought about this Agricultural Change? Ester Boserup’s study of
agricultural change in traditional non-modern economies covering 1945-1995
discovered the explanation. Population has to grow beyond a certain minimum
to induce agricultural change— intensifying land cultivation and shortening
fallow times. Cultivating less fertile plots, covered with grass or bushes rather
than forest, encouraged fertilization, field preparation, weed control, and
irrigation, changes that led to agricultural innovation. Population growth leads to
development of towns and the concomitant development of specialized crafts
and skills (non-farm activities) as more and more people cease to live off the
land. This in turn pressured farmers to produce more food using ever improving
techniques to meet the growing demand for food. 17
In 1750 English population stood at about 5.7 million. It had probably
reached this level before, in the Roman period, then around 1300, and again in
1650. But at each of these periods the population ceased to grow, essentially
because agriculture could not respond to the pressure of feeding extra people.
Contrary to expectation, however, population grew to unprecedented levels after
16
“Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an
arithmetical ratio.” Thomas Malthus, Essay on the Principles of Population, 1798
17
Boserup, Ester 1981 Population and Technological Change: A Study of Long Term Trends. Univ.
Chicago Press, Chicago
1750, reaching 16.6 million in 1850, and agricultural output expanded with it. 18
England by 1870 produced 300% more than in 1700 with only 14% of the
population working on land.
The successful war against food shortages was followed by the one waged
against diseases. In England social reforms in the 19th century improved working,
living conditions, as well as sanitation and hygienic conditions. The discoveries
of causes of diseases by Pastuer and their prevention by Jenner, important first
steps in the battle man fought against diseases, gradually pulled down mortality.
The decline in death rate in Europe began in the late 18th century in
Northwestern Europe and spread over the next 100 years to the south end east.
Mortality rates for Measles, Tuberculosis, and Scurvy for US and England
continued falling over the first half of the 20th century.
18
Overton, Mark, Agricultural Revolution in England, 1500-1850,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/society_culture/industrialisation/agricultural_revolution_01.shtml
These graphs show the impact of modern science and technology on disease
control in the West. 19 This decline in mortality when fertility remained high
brought about a demographic revolution that contributed much to the Industrial
19
Keith Montgomery’s article, The Demographic Transition published at
http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm
Revolution. On the supply side – this population explosion provided the labor
supply for the burgeoning industries without adversely hurting agriculture. On
the demand side market population explosion aided industries by providing
sufficient economies of scale. In Sweden this demographic transition took almost
a century to complete (1815-1975).
The decline in childhood death meant that at some point parents
eventually realized that they need not require so many children to be born to
ensure a comfortable old age. As childhood death continued to fall parents
gradually become confident that fewer children will suffice. Rise in female
literacy and labor force participation also had an impact on women’s attitudes
towards child-bearing. 20
In 1650 the share of Asia and Africa in the world population is estimated
to have been 78.4 percent, and it stayed around there even in 1750. With the
demographic revolution that followed the Industrial Revolution, the share of
Asia and Africa diminished because of the rapid rise of population in Europe
and North America. During the nineteenth century the inhabitants of Asia and
Africa grew by about 4 percent per decade or less, the population of "the area of
European settlement" grew by around 10 percent every decade.21
This interaction of ecology and population in the history of the West can
therefore be summarized in these observations:
20
op. cit.
Amartya Sen, Population: Delusion and Reality,
http://finance.commerce.ubc.ca/~bhatta/ArticlesByAmartyaSen/amartya_sen_on_population.html
21
1. Pre-modern populations survived high mortality rates due to poor
nutrition and inability to control diseases survived by maintaining
high fertility.
2. In spite of a continuous battle against inadequate food supply and
diseases population gradually grew and population pressure led to
agricultural innovation and invention.
3. Man’s increased control over food production and disease through
modern science and technology reduced mortality.
4. The delayed adjustment of fertility behavior to lower mortality
produced a population explosion. This demographic dividend
contributed to the take off of modern economic growth.
5. Population growth decelerated when families eventually adjusted their
fertility decisions to the lower mortality rates.
6. Development was the cause of fertility fall, not its consequence.
Population growth is a modern phenomenon caused by the fall in
mortality. It came only after man’s improved ability to adjust to his environment
permitted him to successfully win the war against hunger and disease. Previous
to this man had no choice but have many children to survive. It was only when
modern agriculture and medical technology proved its worth in bringing
mortality down that man could afford the luxury of reducing fertility.
THIRD WORLD EXPERIENCE
But what of the 3rd World experience? Could the Malthus’ mistaken
prognosis for the West be valid for the 3rd World as well? Will Asia and Africa
which make up 71.2% of current world population be equally successful in
waging the battle against hunger and disease?
This 5-year moving average of UN Demographic data22 shows Infant
mortality rate falling over 1948-1998 for selected 3rd world countries. This fall
was dramatic (as much as 90% in the case of the Philippines), because it
accomplished in half a century what took the West two centuries. The first
development decade23 was not declared until 1960 but at the close of the II World
War with the Marshall Plan in place for Europe the interest in helping 3 rd world
countries had an immediate impact. “Progress in human development during
the 20th century was dramatic and unprecedented. Between 1960 and 2000 life
expectancy in developing countries increased from 46 to 63 years. Mortality rates
for children under five were more than halved.”24
22
Downloaded from: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/products/dyb/dyb2.htm
The UN declared 1960-1970 the First Development Decade
24
UNDP, Human Development Report 2004, p. 129
23
The drop in mortality meant higher survival rates of children to
reproductive age. This increased the size of the reproductive population (15-45
age cohorts). This rise child-bearing population added momentum to population
growth, a phenomenon that also took place in advanced countries over 17501950. The more dramatic fall in mortality in 3rd world countries meant greater
momentum or a more explosive population growth. Population growth in 3rd
world countries is not due to “over-breeding”—it was above all triggered by the
tremendous development impact of improved medicine and health information.
As in the advanced countries fertility adjustment was likewise delayed.
The fall in fertility did not take place until serious improvements were
achieved in the status of women. In 1948 14.35% of Filipino women belonging to
the 14-19 age groups were already married. By 1995 this had gone down by half–
7.85% as most of women this age were going to school. In 1970 Filipinas got
married at the age of 22; by 1995 this had gone up to 24.1 years old.25 Both
education and rise in women labor force participation had the same effect in
delaying marriage.
25
World Fertility Report 2004
Across Asia and in much of the developing world fertility went down
only during the last quarter of the 20th century. The slower decline in Africa in
comparison to Asia is most likely due to the slower improvement of the status of
women in that continent. Eventually the fall in fertility caught up and
population growth of less developed countries began to slow down.
In comparison to its Asian neighbors the Philippines had a higher growth
rate and took longer to slow down its population growth. One possible reason
for this is that although improvements in the status of women were more quickly
achieved in the Philippines than in its Asian neighbors – countries of Muslim or
Confucian or Hindu cultures, contraceptive prevalence continues to be lower in
the Philippines than in other Asian countries. Improvements in women’s status
can easily account for the 82.2% of the fall in fertility in the Philippines. 26 On the
other hand Total Fertility Rate of African countries like Kenya and Nigeria
continue to be significantly high.
These trends generally mirror the same familiar path that the West took
with modernization. The initial rise in population density during the colonial
period led to intensification of agricultural production. Modernization of health
technology – vaccination, pest control, improved housing conditions, sanitation
and hygiene resulted in vast improvements of survival rates. Accelerating
population growth pushed by growing reproductive population. Delayed fall in
fertility came with improvement of women’s status.
How did
the 3
world
cope with this
explosive
population
growth? In the
1970s
highyield
dwarf
varieties
of
wheat and rice
resistant
to
plant pests and
diseases tripled
wheat and rice
harvests in 3rd world countries. New seeds accompanied by chemical fertilizers,
pesticides and irrigation replaced traditional farming practices of millions of 3 rd
world. This produced the Green Revolution that dramatically increased
agricultural productivity.
rd
26
Rosa Linda G. Valenzona, Contraceptives are Overrated!, 2005, unpublished work.
FAO data on per capita cereal production 27 show that world per capita
cereal production has steadily risen over the last half of the 20th century.
Although per capita production for developing countries is lower than that of
Developed Countries it has not gone down in spite of explosive population
growth– it has even gone up slightly over the period since food production in
these countries has more than kept up with population growth. This is even
more obvious when one examines on daily per capita caloric consumption (from
cereal, protein and oil sources). Calorie per capita for the developing countries–
steadily increased to 2,666 calories per capita daily by 2002—exceeding daily
nutritional requirement.
27
This can be downloaded from the FAOSTAT Home page with URL at
http://faostat.fao.org/faostat/default.jsp?language=EN&version=ext&hasbulk=0
Though many countries have had declining food production per head
they have not experienced hunger or starvation since their economies have
prospered and grown. When the means are available, food can easily be bought
in the international market if it is necessary to do so. Amartya Sen, 1994 Nobel
Prize winner for Economics, states that the difficulties in food production for
countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, like other problems of the national economy, are
linked to wars, dictatorships, and political chaos. The food problem of Africa
must be seen as one part of a wider political and economic problem of the
region.28
Sen criticizes the doomsday prophecies of imminent disasters which have
not proven any more accurate than Malthus’s prognostications nearly 200 years
ago. “There was no way of refuting the theses of W. Paddock and P. Paddock's
popular book Famine—1975!, published in 1968, which predicted a terrible
cataclysm for the world as a whole by 1975 (writing off India, in particular, as a
basket case), until 1975 actually arrived. The new prophets have learned not to
attach specific dates to the crises they foresee, and past failures do not seem to
have reduced the popular appetite for this creative genre.”29 Taking the approach
of Julian Simon in his debate with Paul Ehrlich 30 Sen concludes that since the
relative price of food keep falling, food production is kept in check by difficulties
in selling food profitably. 31
It can be concluded that even poor populations in 3rd world countries have
also shown the same extraordinary capacity to adjust to their material and
physical environment – conquering hunger and diseases.
POPULATION MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT
Family planning programs forced on the 3rd world countries by the West
are claiming that fertility fall is a means to achieving economic development.
History has proven this to be a deception. This intent at deception is meant to
persuade 3rd World families to do something that they would not do otherwise.
This in plain language is coercion. China’s 1-child policy is not unique in this
coercive element. Peoples’ freedom to make their own choices is violated– it is
28
Amartya Sen, Population: Delusion and Reality, in
http://finance.commerce.ubc.ca/~bhatta/ArticlesByAmartyaSen/amartya_sen_on_population.html
29
Ibid.
30
Read about it in Joseph Kellard, Reason vs. Faith: Julian Simon vs. Paul Ehrlich, April 26, 1998,
Capitalism Magazine
31
Op. cit.
assumed that couples are not capable of making rational decisions regarding
family size.
When confronted with this deception population control advocates fall
back on the argument that population control at least facilitates development. It
reduces the burden of dependency on the economically active population and
eases the financing of development. This is another deception.
The Philippines is well known as a
failure
in
family
planning
with
contraceptive prevalence rate remaining at
47% in spite of enormous resources
poured into this program. Family size
which was 7.29 in 1950-1955 went down to
3.29 in 2000-2005 or by 50% in a span of 50
years. This gradual fall in fertility has also
brought down its dependency rate from
.89% in 1950 to .77% in 2000 or 13% over
the 50 year period.
Its median age
(considered by the UN as an important
indicator of ageing) was 18.2 in 1950 barely
increased by 21% to 22.2 by 2005 indicating
a population that has remained young over
the span of 50 years.
Thailand on the other hand is touted
as a great family planning success and held
up as a model for the Philippines to
emulate. Its contraceptive prevalence rate is
currently at 72%. TFR in Thailand fell from
6.4 in 1950 to 1.95 in 2000 or a 70% drop. In
1950 its dependency rate was also .89 like
the Philippines. By 2000 the dependency
rate had gone down to a low .56 or a 37%
fall from the 1950 level. This abrupt dive in
fertility has caused its median age to shoot up by 64% from 18.6 in 1950 to 30.5 in
2005. It means that 50% of its population is now older than 30.5 years.
Singapore is a sterling example of
an even more successful family
planning under the leadership of Lee
Kuan Yu. A clever mix of sloganeering
population control propaganda: “Stop
at Two” and housing policies that
favored families with two children
resulted in a dramatic change in
Singapore’s attitude towards children in
the 1960’s. TFR was at 6.4 in 1950
dropped to below replacement rate of
1.87 in 1970 or by 70% in 25 years. Its
dependency rate fell sharply from .79 in
1950 to .47 in 1975 or a 40% drop. The
birth cohorts started shrinking dramatically in the 1960s. It went down from
15.1% of population in 1965 (this is the 40-44 cohort in 2000) to 9.9% by 1975 (3034 cohort in 2000). Since then its TFR has steadily fallen down to 1.35 in 2000
after a slight blip in 1990 – these are most likely the babies of the age cohorts that
are in the 35-39 age group in the year 2000. In the next five years Singapore’s
median age will have risen to 40.6 indicating the rapid aging of its population.
The
demographic
dividend to be
gained
from
family
planning is not
really
a
dividend
–it
also
comes
with
rapid
aging.
The
generation that
enjoys
the
reduced
burden of dependency is in fact “living off” its demographic capital very much
like the prodigal son who spends his inheritance in his father’s lifetime. The
basis of UN projections for TFR to increase to 1.84 by 2050 is not clear when
under this assumption Singapore’s median age will have reached 52.1 and the 014 age group will constitute a mere 12.6% of its population.
Singapore’s
population will decrease in absolute terms from 2035 onwards. This is the
picture of a nation bent on genocide. The new population document released by
the UN now admits that “The primary consequence of fertility decline, especially
if combined with increases in life expectancy, is population ageing…” 32 Ageing is
but a euphemism for genocide.
WHAT ABOUT POVERTY?
The existence of so much poverty in the World is difficult to deny.
“…despite this impressive progress, massive human deprivation remains. More
than 800 million people suffer from undernourishment….More than a billion
people survive on less than $1 a day.”33 The poor are also blamed for a multitude
of ecological disasters, from urban congestion, to causing traffic, higher crime
rates, etc., as if it were not enough to be poor. Poverty is blamed on population
growth. These are really two separate issues: first, whether overpopulation is
indeed the cause of poverty and second, whether poverty magnifies the human
impact on the environment.
Economists blame poverty on factors that lead to unshared prosperity and
the persistent and possibly growing inequality. One can run through the whole
gamut of factors starting with the enormous burden of foreign debt, the
structural adjustment programs imposed by World Bank and IMF on poor
countries, the rising corruption and inefficient governance in 3rd world countries,
etc. to explain the growing gap between the rich and the poor countries.
Amartya Sen states that to see in population growth the main reason for the
growth of overcrowded and very poor slums in large cities, for example, is not
empirically convincing. Why is New York Harlem more deprived when
compared with the poorer districts of Singapore when the US population growth
rate is 1.0 and Singapore's is 1.8? 34
The poor suffer from deprivation not because there is overpopulation but
because they do not have the income to make their needs felt in the market. Too
much of the world’s resources go into meeting the needs of the rich. This table
on the 1998 global spending priorities speaks for itself. Pharmaceutical
32
World Population Prospects, the 2004 Revision, Key Findings, n.14 , United Nations ,
Department of Economic Affairs, Population Division, 24 February 2005
33
UNDP, Human Development Report 2004, p. 129
34
Op. cit.
companies in the West are too busy producing Viagra than anti-biotic to rid the
3rd World countries of the most common infectious diseases that have been
eradicated in the West.
Global priorities in spending in 1998
This
tendency
to
associate
poverty
and
population
growth
has
naturally been used to justify
targeting of the poor with
family planning programs.
This approach of “blaming the
victims” is typical of the racist
mentality of Malthusians. It
views the poor as an underclass who should not be
allowed to propagate.
Global Priority
$U.S.
Billions
Basic education for everyone in the world
6
Cosmetics in the United States
8
Water and sanitation for everyone in the world
9
Ice cream in Europe
11
Reproductive health for all women in the world
12
Perfumes in Europe and the United States
12
Basic health and nutrition for everyone in the
world
13
Pet foods in Europe and the United States
17
Business entertainment in Japan
35
Cigarettes in Europe
50
Are the poor a threat to Alcoholic drinks in Europe
105
rd
the environment? In 3 world Narcotics drugs in the world
400
countries they have been Military spending in the world
780
blamed for destruction of the
rain forest, the depletion of marine resources, and even of rise in CO 2 emission!
While humans are largely responsible for many problems of the planet today, not
all humans have the same impact on the environment.
It has been thoroughly documented that the consumption of the worlds
wealthiest fifth of humanity is so much more than the rest of the world. Globally,
the 20% of the world's people in the highest-income countries account for 86%
of total private consumption expenditures - the poorest 20% a minuscule 1.3%.
More specifically, the richest fifth: 35





35
Consume 45% of all meat and fish, the poorest fifth 5%.
Consume 58% of total energy, the poorest fifth less than 4%.
Have 74% of all telephone lines, the poorest fifth 1.5%.
Consume 84% of all paper, the poorest fifth 1.1%.
Own 87% of the world's vehicle fleet, the poorest fifth less than 1%.
Anup Shah http, Behind Consumption and Consumerism,
http://www.globalissues.org/TradeRelated/Consumption.asp
It is the runaway growth in
consumption in the past 50 years that is
putting pressure on the environment
never before seen.36 Unfair trade and
globalization extends the economic power
of rich countries beyond their borders to
use the resources of 3rd world countries.
Going beyond the concept of “carrying
capacity”37 (the size of the population
that an area of land can support) one can
now define “ecological footprint”38 of
developed countries because the resources
used to meet their consumption
requirements extend far beyond the land area of their borders.
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Since man’s adjustment to his material and physical environment is no
other than development the concept of sustainable development has to be
discussed. Sustainable development is defined as “development that meets the
needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to
meet their own needs.39 The term was an offshoot of the 1992 Rio Earth Summit
which put together a plan of action for nations to produce national sustainable
development strategies.
In spite of the apparent reasonableness of this definition the term
sustainable development has been perverted to justify unreasonable regulation
designed to constrain economic activity based on unproven fears of future
environmental consequences. Agenda 21 of the Rio document calls for changing
the very infrastructure of developed nations away from private ownership and
control of property to a national zoning system run by non-elected, faceless
bureaucrats and special interest groups. Environmental policies will outlaw
36
Ibid.
Hardin, G. (1991) Paramount positions in ecological economics, in R. Costanza,(Ed.). Ecological
economics: The science and management of sustainability, pp. 47-57. New York: Columbia University
Press.
38
Rees, William E., Revisiting Carrying Capacity, Area-Based Indicators of Sustainability
39
Although the term sustainable development was first coined in the UN Earth Summit in 1992,
this definition is attributed to the 1987 Brundtland Commission.
37
modern conveniences and technologies that are considered unsustainable.
Sustainable development is a new form of totalitarianism in the name of
environmental protection.
This perversion is premised on the “intrinsic value” of nature and the
need to preserve it “for its own sake.” Cutting down trees or filling in a
mosquito-infested swamp (now called wetland!) to erect houses and hospitals, or
mining ore to build machines and medical instruments, or constructing dams to
generate electricity, or drilling gas wells to fuel our cars and heat our homes -industrial activities that improve man's environment -- are considered immoral
because they harm the "intrinsic value" of the non-human environment. This
attitude of invariably putting nature first whenever human needs conflict with
its “protection” makes environmentalism essentially biocentric rather than
anthropocentric. This "intrinsic value" philosophy is a complete reversal of the
biblical mandate that gives man dominion over the earth and all its living
creatures. Hence, nature must be kept pristine despite harm caused to humans.
We must halt activities beneficial to us, such as farming, forestry, cancer
treatment, in order to safeguard fish, birds, trees, and rats.
Past forms of totalitarianism required man to sacrifice their lives for the
sake of the proletariat, the nation or the Fuhrer. This time man has to sacrifice
development and freedom itself or run the risk of global cooling, global
warming, ozone depletion, acid rain, population bombs, killer pesticides, etc.
This gives politicians the power to arbitrarily decide the extent to which humans
(including their individual rights and prosperity) are to be sacrificed for nature’s
sake. Companies are forced to perform confusing, time-consuming and costly
"environmental impact studies" to assess the "harm done to nature itself."
The fundamental goal of environmentalists is not clean air and clean
water; rather it is the demolition of technological/industrial civilization. Their
goal is not the advancement of human health, human happiness, and human life;
rather it is to construct a subhuman world where "nature" is worshipped like the
totem of some primitive religion.
Sustainable development is also a buzzword to advance the UN agenda of
global governance. Starting with the Montreal Protocol banning CFC’s (to
protect the ozone layer), then the UN Biodiversity Treaty (to protect endangered
species) it has now gone ahead to the Kyoto Protocol (to limit CO2 emissions).
This is not the place to review the scientific evidence against these doomsday
scenarios but one can cite the Oregon Petition Project. The Kyoto Protocol seeks
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of developed countries below their level in
1990 based on projections of models predicting an increase in global
temperatures between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius over the next century. The
Oregon Petition Project disagreed with these estimates and with the signature of
17,000 climatologists, meteorologists, and other experts it states: "There is no
convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or
other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause
catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's
climate." 40
Jacquiline Kasun asserts that sustainable development is now pushed as
the altruistic motive for justifying population control for advanced countries.
Advocates of sustainable development are not merely talking about birth control
for less developed countries. World population control must also include the
United States and by implication the other developed nations. 41 Obviously they
have already won the war since fertility in developed countries is now way
below replacement rate.
GLOBAL POPULATION TRENDS
According to UN projections global
population is expected to level off at 10.5
Billion before the end of 23rd century. UN
has had a long history of overestimating
population projections.
There is no
guarantee that the latest projection will be
more accurate than past ones. It assumes
that developed countries will increase TFR
from the current 1.46 to 1.84 by 2045-2050.
There is no explanation why TFR is
assumed to stabilize at 1.84. In spite of the
fact that the oldest-old (aged 80 years and
40
View the Oregon Petition Project at http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p37.htm. At the very
least this website and many other resources in the web proves that global warming as well as
many other gloomy environmental predictions are the subject of unresolved scientific debates,
contrary to the insistence of many environmentalist.
41
Jacqueline R. Kasun, Doomsday Every Day Sustainable Economics, Sustainable Tyranny, The
Independent Review, v. IV, n. 1, Summer 1999, ISSN 1086-1653, Copyright 1999, pp. 91-106
over) represent the fastest growing of the world population (673 Million in 2050)
there is no discussion on how this would impact on mortality trends. 42 More
emphasis is given to the impact of HIV AIDS to mortality rates (33.6 Million in
2050). It is very likely that global population will level off sooner than the mid2300 UN prediction. An over-estimate of fertility and underestimate of mortality
would mean that CDR and CBR would intersect sooner and level off global
population sometime in the
22nd century.
In
spite
of
its
nonchalant admission that
fertility decline causes ageing
the UN remains relentless in
its promotion of family
planning. There is no hint of
remorse over its responsibility
for bringing races at the brink
disappearance in the next
century or so. 43 This attitude
is strikingly different from the UN’s impassioned protection of endangered
species and its promotion of biodiversity. Here again is evidence of the strong
influence of environmentalism on a biocentric paradigm for the UN. It would
appear that the UN is also convinced that global population should go down to 2
Billion at all cost.44 45
42
World Population Prospects, the 2004 Revision United Nations , Department of Economic
Affairs, Population Division, 24 February 2005
43
The genocide condemned by the Church in n. 506 Compendium of Social Doctrine of the Church
referring to the elimination of entire national, ethnic, religious or linguistic groups is ordinarily
applied to such crimes as the Nazi holocaust, the ethnic cleansing in Yugoslavia in recent times.
However, it is undeniable that the voluntary reduction of fertility to levels below replacement by
advanced countries is a form of voluntary genocide because it will eventually spell the
disappearance of entire races.
44
This is the professed objective of bizarre groups such as the ZPG (Zero Population Growth),
NPG (Negative Population Growth), (VHEM) Voluntary Human Extinction Movement, GLF
(Gaia Liberation Front) according to Mark Burdman and Roger More, Executive Intelligence
Review, July 18, 1997
45
The Holy See has repeatedly condemned UN population control programs. Vatican
Information Service, November 4, 1996 reports the Vatican’s announcement of withdrawal of its
contribution to UNICEF for the latter’s advocacy for the distribution of abortifacient 'post-coital
contraceptives' to refugee women in emergency situations, for altering national legislation
CONCLUSIONS
It now appears that there is really a population bomb but instead of the
much dreaded population explosion it is going to be a population implosion.
Among the countries which will start experiencing an absolute decrease in
population during the first half of this century are those countries at the forefront
of the Judeo-Christian culture in the past. While the last half of the 20th century
was spent debating life issues related to conception one can expect that the first
half of the 21st century will be spent debating life issues related to death.
Bioethics practitioners will have to gird themselves for this war.
Far from leading coming to the brink of a disastrous population explosion
man did indeed fulfill the divine mandate to establish dominion over creation
through science and technology in a triumph of creativity. Although there is a
need for more awareness of man’s stewardship over nature it is important to
emphasize that there is so much deception in the numerous threats of
environmental disaster. Human creativity will also mitigate the threats that
science and technology may pose to the environment. Man’s awesome
achievements should not be taken for granted and should confirm our conviction
of the dignity of man and the value of human life.
regarding abortion and involvement in distribution of contraceptives and counseling their use in
third world countries.