NSW INDEPENDENT TRIAL EXAMS – 2008 ECONOMICS TRIAL EXAMINATION MARKING GUIDELINES Section I 1 D 2 B 3 C 4 B 5 B 6 C 7 B 8 D 9 D 10 A 11 D 12 B 13 D 14 A 15 C 16 B 17 D 18 A 19 C 20 B Section II Question 21(a) Outcomes assessed: H1, H8 Criteria Marks States the correct meaning of economic growth. 1 Answers could include: Economic growth is an increase in the level of economic activity which leads to an increase in real GDP and reflects increased productive capacity of an economy. Question 21(b) Outcomes assessed: H1, H8 Criteria Marks Correctly indicates the difference between nominal GDP and real GDP. 2 States the correct meaning of nominal GDP or real GDP. 1 Answers could include: Nominal GDP measures changes in GDP at current prices (money GDP). Real GDP measures changes in GDP at constant prices with the effect of inflation taken into account. Question 21(c) Outcomes assessed: H1, H8, H11 Criteria Determines the correct value of real GDP. Answers could include: Real GDP = Nominal GDP x Real GDP = $550m x Marks 1 100 110 100 110 Real GDP = $500m Question 21(d) Outcomes assessed: H1, H7 Criteria Explains correctly TWO benefits of economic growth for an economy. Explains only ONE benefit of economic growth for an economy. Answers could include: Improved standard of living as measured by rising real per capita income; Increases in part time and full time employment; Increased level of international trade through exports and imports; Increased investment and technical progress; Reduction in poverty through increased welfare; Increased tax revenue for the government spent on infrastructure. Marks 2 1 Question 21(e) Outcomes assessed: H1, H6 Criteria Marks Relates the cause and effect of the constraints on economic growth in Australia. 3–4 Sketches in general terms the constraints on economic growth in Australia. 1–2 Answers could include: Current constraints on economic growth in Australia may include two of the following: Labour shortages in some industries especially for skilled workers because the labour market is at full employment; Capacity utilisation is high with limited spare capacity for firms to raise production; Inflationary pressures including rising oil prices which raise production costs; Bottlenecks in transport and export infrastructure; More restrictive stances of monetary and fiscal policies. NSW Independent Trial Exams 2008 – Economics Yr 12 Trial Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 1 Question 22(a) Outcomes assessed: H1 Criteria Marks States the correct meaning of the term exchange rate. 1 Answers could include: An exchange rate is the rate at which one country’s currency is exchanged for another country’s currency. It is the relative price of two currencies traded in foreign exchange markets and is a measure of relative purchasing power. Question 22(b) Outcomes assessed: H1, H8 Criteria Marks Sketches in general terms ONE advantage and ONE disadvantage of a floating exchange 2 rate. Sketches in general terms either ONE advantage or ONE disadvantage of a floating 1 exchange rate. Answers could include: One advantage of a floating exchange rate is that the currency reflects the price which is determined by the market forces of demand and supply. Another advantage of a floating exchange rate is that movements (such as depreciation and appreciation) help to correct disequilibrium in the balance of payments. One disadvantage of a floating exchange rate is that the currency is more volatile and may lead to uncertainty in the exchange rate. A further disadvantage is that any misalignment of the exchange rate in relation to an economy’s fundamentals may require central bank intervention or a change in macroeconomic policy settings which may affect a country’s economic performance. Question 22(c) Outcomes assessed: H1, H4, H8 Criteria Marks Explains the relationship between an appreciation of a country’s currency and the impact 2–3 on the balance of payments. Provides a limited response on the link between an appreciation and the impact on a 1 country’s balance of payments. Answers could include: An appreciation of a country’s currency can cause import prices to become cheaper and export prices dearer. This reduces the international competitiveness of exports and import competing goods and could lead to a deterioration in the country’s existing current account deficit or a fall in an existing current account surplus. Through the ‘valuation effect’ of a currency appreciation, the country’s foreign debt decreases. This may assist in reducing an existing current account deficit through a lower net income deficit. An appreciation of a country’s currency may also lead to a reduction in capital inflow as foreign investment becomes more expensive because domestic assets are dearer in foreign currency terms. Question 22(d) Outcomes assessed: H1, H4, H8 Criteria Marks Explains TWO economic developments in the global economy which have caused the 3–4 recent appreciation of the Australian dollar. 1–2 Sketches in general terms TWO economic developments in the global economy which have caused the recent appreciation of the Australia dollar, OR Explains how ONE economic development in the global economy has caused the recent appreciation of the Australia dollar. Answers could include: Any TWO of the following global economic developments could be explained as causes of the recent appreciation in the Australian dollar: The cut in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve due to the Sub Prime mortgage crisis has widened the interest rate differential between the US and Australia. This has led to more foreign investors demanding Australian dollars since returns are higher in Australia relative to the United States. The demand for Australian commodities has remained strong due to the rapid development of emerging economies such as China and India. Commodity prices for iron ore, coal and aluminium have risen significantly over the past few years. This has had a direct impact on the improvement in Australia’s terms of trade. Question 22(d) continues on the next page NSW Independent Trial Exams 2008 – Economics Yr 12 Trial Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 2 Question 22(d) continued Australia’s terms of trade have risen by over 30% in the last few years mainly due to rising prices for commodity exports such as minerals, as well as falls in the prices of some imported manufactured goods from low cost producers such as China. The rising terms of trade has driven the appreciation in the Australian dollar. The demand for Australian dollars has also been strong because of increased foreign direct and portfolio investment in the Australian resources sector where mining companies are making large profits from the global resources boom. The Australian dollar’s appreciation has also been a reflection of positive exchange rate expectations by foreign exchange participants looking to make capital gains from a strong currency such as the Australian dollar relative to the weak US dollar. Question 23(a) Outcomes assessed: H1, H2 Criteria Marks Sketches in general terms TWO objectives of fiscal policy in Australia. 2 Sketches in general terms ONE objective of fiscal policy in Australia OR identifies rather 1 than outlines TWO objectives of fiscal policy in Australia. Answers could include: The primary objective of fiscal policy is embodied in the federal government’s medium-term fiscal strategy of ensuring fiscal sustainability. This requires the budget to be balanced, on average, over the course of the economic cycle. To provide funding through current and future budget surpluses for future capital investment in infrastructure, education and health. To bear down on inflationary pressures in the economy by reducing public demand. To ensure a strong financial position at a time of heightened uncertainty in the international economy. To entrench low public debt and ensure that over time, the current account reflects private saving and investment decisions. Question 23(b) Outcomes assessed: H1, H2, H6 Criteria Marks Clearly and concisely demonstrates an understanding of how the government uses fiscal 3 policy to influence the level of economic activity. Demonstrates a general understanding of how the government uses fiscal policy to 2 influence the level of economic activity. States correctly ONE method through which the government uses fiscal policy to 1 influence the level of economic activity. Answers could include: Fiscal policy tools are used by the government to try and shorten recessions and to prevent booms in economic activity from becoming excessive. This has traditionally been termed stabilisation policy. When devising fiscal policy, government authorities will consider the need to stabilise aggregate expenditure and also the likely effects of government spending, taxes and transfers on the economy’s level of activity. Fiscal policy measures may affect potential output as well as planned aggregate expenditure. With regard to expenditure, this includes investment in public capital, including roads, airports and schools which tend to play a major role in the growth or potential output in the modern economy. Government tax and transfer programmes influence the economic behaviour of households and firms through incentive and disincentive effects. For example, a high tax rate on income earned through interest rates may reduce the willingness of people to save in the future, while tax concessions afforded to businesses through the budget may encourage firms to increase their rate of capital formation. Question 23(c) Outcomes assessed: H1, H2, H5, H6, H7, H8 Criteria Identifies the effects of sustained fiscal surpluses. Demonstrates a clear and concise understanding of the main effects of sustained fiscal surpluses on the Australian economy. Question 23(c) continues on the next page Marks 4–5 NSW Independent Trial Exams 2008 – Economics Yr 12 Trial Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 3 Question 23(c) continued 3 Identifies the effects of sustained fiscal surpluses. Demonstrates a general understanding of the main effects of sustained fiscal surpluses on the Australian economy. 2 Demonstrates a limited understanding of the main effects of sustained fiscal surpluses on the Australian economy. 1 Lists some ways that sustained fiscal surpluses can impact on the Australia economy, OR Correctly defines fiscal surplus. Answers could include: Since budget surpluses add to national savings, they help to increase the level of national savings and the level of financial resources available for private investment. Investment provides the engine for sustained economic growth and therefore confers future economic benefits on Australian society. Sustained fiscal surpluses enable the government to finance its own investment requirements, meaning that the national debt is the outcome of private sector borrowing and decisions primarily driven by market forces. There is a strong equity issue surrounding the desire to keep the budget in surplus and reduce the level of public debt. Any borrowing undertaken by the government has to be repaid plus interest, at some time in the future. In this way, the budget surplus avoids the undesirable burden of future debt repayments being bestowed upon future generations and the possibility of higher taxes being levied to service public debt liabilities. Sustained budget surpluses help to increase the level of national savings. By the end of the 1980’s, the level of national savings (as measured by the gross national savings rate) had increased to around 21% of GDP after falling to a low of 16% in 1992. By 2006-07 national savings as a percentage of GDP was approximately 20%. There has been a longstanding debate about the effects of reducing public debt, more specifically to what degree persistent fiscal surpluses may have reduced the level of economic activity over time. Another issue is to what degree the government may have surrendered its capacity to use fiscal policy as a counter cyclical policy tool by pursuing surplus budget outcomes. This reflects uncertainty and concern on the part of policy makers over the capacity for fiscal policy to be used as an effective tool for stabilisation. The emphasis for stabilisation has clearly shifted to the use of monetary policy in achieving the goals of sustainable economic growth, price stability and full employment. Sustained fiscal surpluses have been used to establish the Future Fund which will be used to finance increased future government spending due to the ageing of the Australian population. Question 24(a) Outcomes assessed: H1, H8, H11 Criteria States correctly the formula for calculating the unemployment rate. Answers could include: Number of Unemployed 100 x Unemployment Rate = Total Labour Force 1 Question 24(b) Outcomes assessed: H1, H8, H11 Criteria Calculates correctly the unemployment rate for Australia in 2006-07 as 4.5%. Answers could include: Number of Unemployed 100 x Unemployment Rate = Total Labour Force 1 Unemployment Rate = 489,000 10,823,500 x Marks 1 Marks 1 100 = 4.5% 1 NSW Independent Trial Exams 2008 – Economics Yr 12 Trial Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 4 Question 24(c) Outcomes assessed: H1, H2, H8, H9 Criteria Marks Sketches in general terms TWO reasons for the falling level of unemployment in Australia 2 between 2004-05 and 2006-07. Sketches in general terms only ONE reason for the falling level of unemployment in 1 Australia between 2004-05 and 2006-07. Answers could include: Higher than average rates of economic growth as measured by changes in real GDP in the period between 2004-05 and 2006-07 have led to employment growth of around 2.5% in annual terms. This reflected growth in both part time and full time employment, with around 51,500 previously unemployed persons finding paid employment. This led to a significant fall in both the level and rate of unemployment in Australia. Strong rates of economic growth in the global economy associated with the global resources boom have underpinned Australia’s rising terms of trade, which has driven employment growth in the mining and construction sectors of the economy between 2004 and 2007. Around 30% of the rise in employment growth in this period occurred in these industries, which helped to reduce the unemployment rate from 5.2% in 2004-05 to 4.5% in 2006-07. A third reason for the falling level of unemployment between 2004-05 and 2006-07 were changes in the Australian government’s eligibility requirements for existing and new welfare beneficiaries to secure some form of paid employment. This tightening of welfare regulations, together with incentives for previously unemployed persons to take on apprenticeships and training has also been a reason for the falling level of unemployment as more people have moved off Job Search Allowance to paid employment. Question 24(d) Outcomes assessed: H1, H2, H8 Criteria Marks Explains correctly TWO causes of the skills shortage in the Australian labour market 2 Explains correctly only ONE cause of the skills shortage in the Australian labour market 1 Answers could include: The skills shortage in the Australian labour market is basically caused by the supply of specific labour skills in trades and professional occupations being less than the demand for these skills. This skills shortage reflects the slower growth in the training and supply of skilled workers in relation to employers’ demand for skilled labour. The resources boom and rising terms of trade have led to increased demand for skills in the mining and construction industries, where high investment and the rapid expansion of output require increasing amounts skilled labour. Higher wages and other benefits have attracted skilled labour to these industries but it has been insufficient to meet employers’ demand, necessitating the importation of skilled labour from overseas. Question 24(e) Outcomes assessed: H1, H2, H5, H8 Criteria Marks Explains correctly ONE short term policy and ONE long term policy to overcome the 3–4 skills shortage. Explains correctly ONE short term policy or ONE long term policy to overcome the skills 2–3 shortage, OR outlines TWO policies but does not explain each one. Outlines rather than explains ONE policy to overcome the skills shortage. 1–2 Answers could include: Policies the Australian government could use to overcome the skills shortage in the short term include providing incentives such as lower taxes and improved superannuation to encourage older or more mature age workers to remain in the workforce and contribute their skills. Another short term policy is to train or retrain younger workers to become tradespersons or professionals to meet the demand for such skills by employers. This could include increased funding for apprenticeships and traineeships, as well as increased spending on university and technical education. A further policy used by the Australian government in the short term is the importation of skilled workers from overseas on special visas to fill job vacancies in skilled occupations. Question 24(e) continues on the next page NSW Independent Trial Exams 2008 – Economics Yr 12 Trial Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 5 Question 24(e) continued In the longer term an appropriate Australian government policy response to the skills shortage is to increase the intake of skilled migrants with skills in short supply in Australia. In addition, there is scope for achieving improved outcomes and higher participation in Australia’s early childhood, school education, vocational and educational training (VET) and higher education sectors. This would enhance the educational and skill attainment of the labour force and add to the skills base of the Australian labour force. A final policy in the longer term is for the Australian government to remove the impediments in the labour market that might restrict skilled labour from earning higher wages and other benefits, or their mobility in seeking higher paid and skilled employment. This could be achieved by reforming the tax system and standardising national qualifications for trades and professions. Section III Question 25 Outcomes assessed: H1, H2, H6, H8, H10 Criteria Marks 17 – 20 Demonstrates a clear and concise understanding of the issues relating to the causes of inflation, and draws out and makes the implications between the effectiveness of monetary policy and the achievement of the objective of price stability in the Australian economy. Integrates appropriate economic terms, relevant concepts, relationships and theory in the extended response answer. Synthesises own information with the information provided to develop a sustained, logical and well-structured response to the question. 13 – 16 Demonstrates an understanding of the causes of inflation and shows the relationship between the use of monetary policy and the achievement of the objective of price stability in the Australian economy. Consistently uses appropriate economic terms, relevant concepts, relationships and theory. Uses own information and the information provided to develop a logical and wellstructured response. 9 – 12 Describes the causes of inflation and provides some information about how monetary policy is used to address and achieve price stability in the Australian economy. Uses appropriate economic terms, concepts and relationships. Uses own information and the information provided to develop a coherent response. 5–8 Outlines some of the causes of inflation and provides limited information on how monetary policy is used to address inflation and achieve price stability in the Australian economy. Uses some appropriate economic terms, concepts and relationships. Uses information to develop a generalised response. 1–4 Lists some of the causes of inflation and provides very limited or no information on how monetary policy is used to achieve price stability in the Australian economy. Uses some economic terms and/or concepts. Presents a limited response. Essay plan: Inflation is the general increase in prices in an economy over a period of time. The major causes of inflation include demand pull inflation, cost push inflation, imported inflation and rising inflationary expectations. Since the early 1990s Australia’s inflation rate has averaged just under 3% per annum. However recent (2007-08) inflation figures have sparked concern, being over 4%, causing the Reserve Bank to tighten monetary policy by increasing interest rates. The major causes of inflation include demand side factors, generally referred to as demand pull inflation and supply side factors called cost push inflation. Demand pull or excess aggregate demand inflation exists when the total level of demand is excessive relative to the level of production. The excess demand leads to an upward pressure on prices. The original theory of excess demand was developed by John Maynard Keynes. He recognised that an economy working at full capacity, which is unable to match the demands of the economy, will put an upward pressure on prices (i.e. an inflationary gap). Demand pull inflation originates from the demand side or expenditure side of the economy. Question 25 continues on the next page NSW Independent Trial Exams 2008 – Economics Yr 12 Trial Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 6 Question 25 continued Cost push inflation refers to the situation where increases in the costs of production flow into the prices of goods and services. The increased costs can originate from higher costs of raw materials, higher interest rates and higher wage demands. Cost push inflation originates on the supply side of economies. Better students should include diagrams to illustrate demand pull inflation and cost push inflation. Other causes of inflation include imported inflation and higher inflationary expectations. These should be elaborated upon by better students. The most common measure of the level of inflation in Australia is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI is compiled by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a quarterly basis and is based on a ‘sample’ basket of goods and services which are weighted to reflect the relative importance in relation to expenditure patterns by an ‘average’ household. The annual rate of inflation is based on the addition of the quarterly rates of inflation. Reporting of inflation in Australia includes references to the headline rate of inflation and the underlying rate inflation. The headline rate is the inflation rate as measured by the CPI. The underlying rate of inflation excludes price changes of any volatile goods or services. In 1996 the Reserve Bank adopted the objective of keeping underlying inflation between 2% and 3%, on average, over the cycle. The headline rate of the CPI has been highly volatile in Australia since 2003/04. More recently in March 2008 the annual rate of inflation was 4.2%. This was above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2% to 3% inflation target. The underlying rate of inflation has also increased over the past two years and is also outside the Reserve Bank’s target band. Conditions which have added to inflationary pressure in the Australian economy include strong domestic demand relative to the economy’s productive capacity (5.7% in 2007); strong commodity prices coupled with strong business investment; a tight labour market characterised by a serious skills shortage; rising global oil prices; and rising costs of credit associated with the subprime mortgage and financial crises in the USA. The response by the Reserve Bank to address inflationary pressures in the short term has been to increase interest rates. Tightening of monetary policy involves the Reserve Bank selling Commonwealth Government Securities. This has occurred on a number of occasions, including two rate rises in late 2007 and an additional two rises in February and March of 2008. The official cash rate now stands at 7.25%. The cash rate has not been at this level for fourteen years. A number of financial intermediaries have also passed on to borrowers increases in interest rates above the cash rate, due to increases in funding costs in global financial markets. This has occurred due to the crisis in the subprime mortgage market in the USA. The contractionary stance by the Reserve Bank appears to be working with a slowdown in the Australian economy starting to occur. Retail sales fell in the March quarter 2008. There has been a sharp decline in consumer sentiment. Indicators of housing construction have fallen and ABS jobs data for March 2008 indicated the first fall in employment levels for 18 months. Whether the slowdown in the economy continues will depend on whether the domestic factors mentioned previously continue to decline coupled with a number of global factors. These factors include the slowdown in some of the world’s major economies and the continuing problems in overseas financial markets. A study by the Reserve Bank published in 2003 revealed that monetary policy has been very effective in achieving price stability in Australia between 1993 and 2003. Inflation targeting had allowed short term flexibility and had also delivered medium term constraints on the economy. Inflation on average stood at 2.3% between 1993 and 2003. This figure was better than other OECD countries which had adopted inflation targeting over the same period. However, the inflationary pressures over the past three years have led to a significant reliance on monetary policy to reduce inflation to within the inflation target band. Monetary policy has its critics. Estimates of the lags of monetary policy are sometimes significant. Shorter lags can be 12 months and some longer term estimates put lags at between 18 months to 24 months. Current changes in interest rates may eventually impact on the business cycle which is at a different stage from when the policy was enacted. Monetary policy has been referred to as a blunt instrument because it impacts on all types of spending including investment. Another argument relates to the inability of monetary policy to influence current price rises which are imported from abroad. Question 25 continues on the next page NSW Independent Trial Exams 2008 – Economics Yr 12 Trial Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 7 Question 25 continued The task of achieving price stability is largely the responsibility of monetary policy. The 2008-09 Budget delivered a large surplus. Whilst this is true of previous budgets the emphasis of the current budget has been to put considerable amounts of this surplus into increasing the economy’s productive capacity or aggregate supply through greater spending on education and skills, health and infrastructure. The intention of the government in applying this policy is to, in part, reduce inflationary pressures on the economy. These measures, plus the call for additional microeconomic reforms, combine to form the current policy mix being implemented to address inflation in Australia and achieve greater price stability. Question 26 Outcomes assessed: H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, H7, H8, H10 Criteria Marks 17 – 20 Identifies the main features of the current Australian industrial relations system and discusses in detail its impact on productivity and Australia’s economic performance. Integrates appropriate economic terms, relevant concepts, relationships and theory in the extended response answer. Synthesises own information with the information provided to develop a sustained, logical and well-structured response to the question. 13 – 16 Demonstrates an understanding and identifies the main features of the current Australian industrial relations system and discusses some of its impacts on productivity and Australia’s economic performance. Consistently uses appropriate economic terms, relevant concepts, relationships and theory. Uses own information and the information provided to develop a logical and wellstructured response to the question. 9 – 12 Describes rather than discusses some of the features of the current Australian industrial relations system and its impact on productivity and some aspects of Australia’s economic performance. Uses appropriate economic terms, concepts and relationships. Uses own information and the information provided to develop a coherent response. 5–8 Outlines rather than discusses some of the main features of the current Australian industrial relations system, but provides a very limited discussion of its impact on productivity and Australia’s economic performance. Uses some appropriate economic terms, concepts and relationships. Uses information to develop a generalised response. 1–4 Lists rather than discusses some of the features of the current Australian industrial relations system, and provides limited discussion of its impact on productivity and Australia’s economic performance. Uses some economic terms and/or concepts. Presents a limited response. Essay plan: The Australian industrial relations system refers to the methods and legislation that influence the setting of wages and working conditions between employees and employers in the labour force. The Australian system of industrial or workplace relations has been characterised by a movement away from a rigid and centralised system of wage determination in the 1980’s, to a more flexible and decentralised system of wage determination in the 1990s and 2000s. This process has been characterised by the decreasing reliance on adjustments to industrial awards by a centralised body such as the AIRC for wage increases, to a system based on individual and collectively negotiated workplace agreements at the enterprise level between employees and employers. Some of the main features of the current Australian industrial relations system are evident in the stimulus graph showing current methods of setting pay provided to support the question. The safety net of the federal and state award systems provide a set of minimum wages and conditions for workers with low skill and bargaining power. The federal minimum award wage is adjusted annually by the Australian Fair Pay Commission, with its most recent decision (July 2008) to grant a $21.66 or 4.1% increase for the lowest paid. Around 20% or two million workers in Australia rely on the adjustment for annual wage increases, which help to meet increases in the cost of living for Australian households. Question 26 continues on the next page NSW Independent Trial Exams 2008 – Economics Yr 12 Trial Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 8 Question 26 continued By far the most important method used for adjustments to wages and working conditions is the role of collective enterprise agreements usually negotiated by trade unions with employers. These agreements reflect enterprise conditions and usually provide for wage increases of around 4% based on increases in the cost of living as well as improvements in labour productivity. Collective enterprise agreements provide coverage for around 40% of the Australian labour force or four million workers. They are prevalent in the public sector and some industries in the private sector where union coverage is high, such as construction and manufacturing. Registered individual agreements such as Australian Workplace Agreements (AWAs) and unregistered individual arrangements such as common law labour contracts provide coverage for a further 35% of the labour force. AWAs are small in coverage (5%) and are registered with the Workplace Authority, whilst informal common law contracts (30%) are not registered with any third party. A major feature of the current Australian industrial relations system is the role of the federal government in passing legislation to establish the principles for wage determination and other industrial relations matters. The Workplace Relations Act 1996 legislated to introduce AWAs as a third stream of individual wage adjustments in addition to awards and collective enterprise agreements. The allowable matters governed by awards were reduced, greater controls were placed on union power in negotiating Certified Agreements and workers were encouraged to sign AWAs to gain more flexibility with their employer. In 2006 the Workplace Relations Amendment Act (WorkChoices) further deregulated the system of industrial relations by creating a unified national system and the application of an Australian Fair Pay and Conditions Standard (AFPCS) to underpin individual and collective workplace agreements. With widespread community concern over the erosion of minimum wages and conditions under the WorkChoices legislation, in 2007 the Australian government enacted the Workplace Relations Amendment (A Stronger Safety Net) Act. This legislation created the Workplace Authority to oversee the registration of individual and collective workplace agreements, and the Workplace Ombudsman to investigate and enforce alleged breaches of minimum wage rates and conditions of employment, by employers. In November 2007 the Labor Party under leader Kevin Rudd won the federal election and formed a new Australian government. A major part of its policy platform was the repeal of the WorkChoices legislation because of its perceived unfairness in eroding minimum wages and conditions of employment. The Workplace Relations Amendment (Transition to Forward with Fairness) Act 2008 was passed by the Australian parliament on March 19th 2008. The Act will implement transitional arrangements to begin the process of phasing out the current WorkChoices (including the prohibition of AWAs) laws by January 2010 and introduce Fair Work Australia as the main body to oversee the industrial relations system in Australia. Labour market policies such as the deregulation of the wage determination system by successive Australian governments were based on the belief that more flexible wage setting arrangements can increase labour productivity and improve Australia’s macroeconomic performance. The movement away from the reliance on the award system to workplace or enterprise bargaining in the 1990s and 2000s has led to greater productivity bargaining and changes in work practices, in return for higher wages and better working conditions. Increasing the efficiency and productivity of labour in the workplace has been achieved through a number of means: The encouragement of multi-skilling, where workers acquire new skills in performing a variety of work tasks, adding to their productivity and the technical efficiency of the enterprise or firm; The development of employee career paths, with prospects for higher wages offered as incentives to employees who undertake further education and training; The trend towards the broadbanding of awards through reducing the number of awards, and grouping specialist labour skills or job categories under one award; The development of key competencies in job training (such as working in teams and using new technology) so that employees can transfer and apply skills to a variety of occupations; An emphasis on training and education and the acquisition of formal qualifications in areas of specialist labour skills, especially in the use of new capital equipment and technology. Question 26 continues on the next page NSW Independent Trial Exams 2008 – Economics Yr 12 Trial Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 9 Question 26 continued The Productivity Commission estimated that labour productivity in Australia’s market sector increased by 2.2% in 2005-06 which was around the long term average of 2.3% per year since the early 1990s. All the labour productivity growth in 2005-06 was due to above average capital deepening (i.e. increases in the capital to labour ratio) of 2.3%. Other factors attributed to the rise in labour productivity in the 1990s and 2000s were improvements in the quality of labour through education and training, and improvements in the efficiency with which labour and capital are used in production. At the macroeconomic level, labour market reform has led to rising rates of real GDP or income per head and improvements in living standards. In addition, rising labour productivity underpinned Australia’s average 3.5% rate of economic growth between 1994 and 2007. Other macroeconomic benefits of successful labour market reform include the enhanced international competitiveness of the traded goods sector (i.e. exports and import substitutes) and wage outcomes consistent with rising productivity, which do not add to inflationary pressures on the supply side of the economy. To this extent inflation outcomes in the Australian economy have been more moderate since the adoption of inflation targeting by the Reserve Bank in 1993 and the more flexible system of wage determination, characterised by the decentralisation of wage negotiations away from the rigid centralised system, to a more flexible system of collective and individual productivity bargaining. Section IV Question 27 Outcomes assessed: H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, H7, H8, H9, H10 Criteria Integrates economic terms, concepts, issues, relationships and theory in an appropriate context. Defines protection and discusses why some countries and trading blocs have resisted the World Trade Organisation’s push for free trade by outlining the reasons for protection. Uses specific examples and relevant data of countries and trading blocs that protect their domestic markets and industries, to support a contemporary and comprehensive analysis of the costs and benefits of this policy to the host country and other economies. Explains the role and influence of the WTO in promoting free trade, both its successes (e.g. the Uruguay Round) and failures (e.g. the Doha Round). Provides concise definitions of economic terms and applies concepts and relationships in an appropriate context. Defines protection and discusses why some countries and trading blocs have resisted the World Trade Organisation’s push for free trade by outlining the reasons for protection. Uses examples of countries and trading blocs that are protecting domestic markets and industries, to support a contemporary and comprehensive analysis of the costs and benefits of this policy to the host country and other economies. Explains the role and influence of the WTO in promoting free trade. Provides clear definitions of economic terms, concepts and relationships. Defines protection and attempts to outline the reasons for protection. Lists some possible outcomes of promoting free trade. Attempts to explain the role and influence of the WTO in promoting free trade in the global economy. Provides basic definitions of some economic terms, concepts and relationships. Defines protection and attempts to outline some reasons for protection. Uses generalised knowledge to develop an irrelevant or inappropriate response to the WTO’s role in promoting free trade in the global economy. Marks 17 – 20 13 – 16 9 – 12 5–8 Question 27 continues on the next page NSW Independent Trial Exams 2008 – Economics Yr 12 Trial Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 10 Question 27 continued 1–4 Utilises some appropriate terminology to communicate economic ideas. Develops no logical sequence in the answer. Demonstrates a lack of knowledge about the reasons for protection. Unable to discuss the benefits of free trade. Uses generalised knowledge to develop an irrelevant or inappropriate response to the WTO’s role in promoting free trade in the global economy. Essay plan: Protection should be defined as any advantage given by a national government to help its export or import replacement industries to compete with overseas producers. Free trade on the other hand is international trade conducted in the absence of protective devices such as tariffs, subsidies, quotas, embargoes or voluntary export restraints. A discussion of the following reasons or economic arguments for protection should be undertaken: The infant industry argument; The promotion of domestic employment; The protection from dumping of cheap products; The self sufficiency and national defence arguments. Students should discuss why free trade is not high on the agenda for some countries and trading blocs (e.g. the European Union) and why their domestic goals may outweigh international goals for free trade and development. This discussion may include reference to the following cases: In the USA the federal government provides protection of farming communities (e.g. ‘wheat states’ in the Mid West); protection of domestic employment in the manufacturing sector (e.g. the automotive industry); prevention of dumping of agricultural surpluses from low cost overseas producers; and protection from cheap manufactured exports from China due to China’s undervalued currency, the RMB. In the European Union (EU), the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) leads to extensive subsidies for dairy, wheat, fruit, vegetable and meat products of EU farmers. The EU operates as a preferential trading bloc, causing many world food prices to be lower than they would be in the absence of subsidies. This reduces market access for developing countries’ exports of farm products to the EU market. In Japan and South Korea, subsidies are paid to farmers to achieve national self sufficiency in rice production, thereby shutting out rice exports from the rest of the world. Students should discuss the main benefits to be derived from the WTO’s policy of promoting free trade in the global economy, by discussing the potential gains from free trade: Restructuring of industry and employment, leading to greater efficiency and improved international competitiveness. This can be attributed to firms achieving economies of large scale production for export markets. Focusing on comparative advantage in production and efficient resource allocation. Lower domestic prices and less inflationary pressure from high import prices. Promotion of globalisation leads to improved equity between countries with the developing countries being able to increase their rates of economic growth and raise living standards. This helps them to decrease levels of poverty and foreign debt. Benefits of increased consumer choice of goods and services and rising levels of real income. Greater rates of technical progress and innovation as countries increase their efficiency and competiveness through international trade. The role of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) is crucial in promoting free trade, as it is the main global body in overseeing the rules based trading system: Implementing and expanding global trade agreements; Resolving trade disputes between countries; Question 27 continues on the next page NSW Independent Trial Exams 2008 – Economics Yr 12 Trial Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 11 Question 27 continued Enforcing trade agreements across the world; Promoting the benefits of free trade between nations and regions; Setting targets for improved free trade at global member meetings (e.g. the Doha Round). Students could provide historical detail on the growing influence of the WTO since its formation at the end of the Uruguay Round in 1994 e.g. trade in services and intellectual property rights were included. This round also commenced the reduction in agricultural subsidies by the USA and EU although the results so far have been well below initial expectations. Dispute resolution by the WTO between smaller countries has been successful but the power of the European Union and the United States has been difficult to overcome in getting them to reduce their food subsidies. Membership of the WTO is growing and there has been an increase in voluntary agreements to enhance trade liberalisation. An outline of the goals of the Doha Round could be stated, especially the reduction of global poverty and the reasons for the suspension of the Doha talks. Despite the impasse reached at the Doha Round, many large developing economies such as China, India and Brazil have had tremendous growth and are fast becoming world leaders in international trade. Mention could also be made of the recent impact of higher world oil and food prices and the slowing world economy on the influence of the WTO, as domestic issues again move to the forefront of most national governments’ agendas. This is most evident by the push to protect domestic markets and employment during a period of slower world growth. Question 28 H1, H2, H4, H5, H7, H8, H9, H10 Criteria Marks 17 – 20 Integrates appropriate economic terms, concepts, issues, relationships and theory. Synthesises economic data and other information to develop a sustained, logical and well structured answer. Demonstrates a clear, concise and comprehensive understanding of how globalisation has led to variations in the standard of living and contrasts in the level of development between nations that make up the global economy. 13 – 16 Consistently applies economic terms, concepts, relationships and theory. Uses economic data and other information to develop a logical and structured answer. Demonstrates a clear understanding of how globalisation has led to variations in the standard of living and contrasts in the level of development between nations that make up the global economy. 9 – 12 Provides some understanding of economic terms, concepts, relationships and theory. Uses economic data and other information to develop a coherent response. Demonstrates a general understanding of how globalisation has led to variations in the standard of living and contrasts in the level of development between nations that make up the global economy. 5–8 Uses some economic terms, concepts and relationships. Uses information to develop a generalised response. Sketches in general terms some aspects of the impact of globalisation on living standards and economic development between nations that make up the global economy. 1–4 Uses some economic terms and/or concepts. Presents a limited response. Lists some aspects of the impact of globalisation. Essay plan: The logical starting point for this essay would be to define the process of globalisation and then explain the link between globalisation of world economic activity and the levels of economic growth and economic development experienced in the various regions of the global economy. Globalisation refers to the increasing economic integration between countries, leading to the emergence of a global market place or single world market. Globalisation has linked people in various countries (often at different stage of economic development) through the use of common technologies and the customisation of goods and services marketed and distributed on a global basis. Question 28 continues on the next page NSW Independent Trial Exams 2008 – Economics Yr 12 Trial Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 12 Question 28 continued A high level response (17 – 20 marks) would be expected to make reference to how globalisation has generally reinforced the existing income disparities between the developed and developing countries. This is reflected in the large variations in the standard of living between countries, which becomes evident when comparisons are made in terms of real GDP or income per capita, and a host of other material and non material indicators (i.e. adult literacy, nutrition, energy consumption and health services). Reference would normally be made to the variety of development indicators incorporated in the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) Human Development Report and the Human Development Index (HDI). Specific examples of the relative performance of high income and poorer nations in terms of the HDI could be cited as evidence of the contrasting levels of economic development attained by countries throughout the global economy. Students should draw attention to the large contrast in the levels of economic development achieved by developed countries (such as the USA and Australia) and the less developed countries (LDCs) such as China, Bangladesh and Zimbabwe. This contrast in the level of development between the two groups of countries is often referred to as ‘the development gap’ since the distinguishing features of less developed countries tend to be low per capita incomes, low levels of saving, investment, capital formation and economic growth, whereas developed countries are characterised by high real per capita incomes and high levels of saving, investment, capital formation and economic growth. Some developing countries such as India and China are closing this gap quickly by sustaining higher rates of economic growth, rising per capita incomes and reductions in poverty. The development gap leads to significant contrasts in the living standards between the developed and less developed countries. In less developed nations, general standards of living tend to be very low for the vast majority of people. This is true not only in relation to their counterparts in rich nations, but also in relation to small elite groups within their own societies. These low levels of living are evident both quantitatively and qualitatively in the form of low incomes (poverty), inadequate housing, poor health, limited education, high infant mortality, low life expectancies and in many cases, a general sense of deprivation. As the populations of less developed nations generally experience low per capita incomes, this also reduces their ability to save and invest and restricts the supply of capital. Subsequently, many developing countries experience difficulties in achieving high levels of productivity and economic growth relative to the developed countries and become trapped in a ‘vicious cycle of poverty’. This is sometimes referred to as ‘self-perpetuating poverty’ where low per capita incomes lead to low levels of saving, which in turn lead to low levels of investment and capital accumulation and low productivity. In addition to having much lower levels of per capita income, many developing countries and regions have experienced slower GNP growth than the developed nations. During the 1980s and early 1990s, the income gap between rich and poor nations widened at the fastest pace in more than three decades. The impact of this widening gap is enormous. If we look at the income levels of the richest 20% of the world’s population in comparison with the poorest 20%, we find that whereas in 1960 the income ratio was 30 to 1, by 1997 the rich were receiving over 70 times the income of the poor. Many people in developing nations fight a constant battle against malnutrition, disease and ill health. Infant mortality rates (the number of children who die before their first birthday out of every 1000 live births) average about 96 in the least developed countries, compared with approximately 64 in other less developed countries and 8 in developed countries. Malnutrition and poor health in the developing world reflect the high levels of absolute poverty that many of the citizens of these countries are forced to endure. Absolute poverty refers to a specific minimum level of income needed to satisfy the basic physical needs of food, clothing and shelter in order to ensure continued survival. Once the magnitude and nature of the development gap between the developed nations and the developing world has been established, students may then turn their attention to the factors which have limited the ability of developing nations to share in the economic benefits of globalisation: One of the greatest constraints to both economic growth and developing nations is the spread of educational opportunities. In most developing countries, education takes the largest share of the government budget. While there have been some impressive quantitative advances in school enrolments, literacy levels remain strikingly low in the developing world compared with the developed nations. Question 28 continues on the next page NSW Independent Trial Exams 2008 – Economics Yr 12 Trial Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 13 Question 28 continued Developing countries are characterised by relatively low levels of labour productivity which is attributed to a diverse range of factors including managerial inefficiency, lack of access to information, low worker motivation and the poor health of the workforce. Low levels of labour productivity can also be explained by the severe lack of complementary factor inputs such as physical capital or experienced management. Better students should explain how most developing countries have economies that are orientated towards the production of primary products (agriculture, fuel, forestry and raw materials) as opposed to secondary (manufacturing) and tertiary (service) activities. These primary commodities comprise their main exports to other nations (both developed and less developed). Exports of primary products typically account for more than half of the annual flow of foreign currency into the developing world. Private foreign investment and foreign aid are also significant (albeit rapidly declining) sources of foreign exchange to these countries. Unfortunately for many debt-ridden developing countries their hard earned foreign exchange earnings through exports during the 1980s and 1990s simply went towards paying interest on their foreign debt liabilities. Furthermore, during some years, these countries have witnessed a negative international flow of capital with more foreign currency flowing out of the developing countries than they have actually received. These factors have been compounded by the failure of developing country export growth (excluding oil exports), to keep pace with those of the developed countries. As a consequence, even in their best years, most non oil exporting developing nations have been losing ground to their more developed counterparts, in terms of their share of total world merchandise trade. For example, according to World Bank figures, in 1950 the developing countries share of world trade was nearly 33%. Since then it has fallen nearly every year and by 2003, it stood at only 25%. Worse still, the share of the lowest income countries is a mere 3%. Since 1970, most of the success in export promotion has been enjoyed by a few OPEC countries (in the 1970s) and the four Asian Tiger economies (Hong Kong SAR, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan). So far this century, it has been the emerging economies led by China (and other developing countries such as India, Brazil, Poland and Mexico) that have made substantial gains in export markets. However, generally speaking, the majority of developing countries have experienced a continuing decline in their share of world trade. NSW Independent Trial Exams 2008 – Economics Yr 12 Trial Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 14 NSW INDEPENDENT TRIAL EXAMS – 2008 ECONOMICS TRIAL EXAMINATION MAPPING GRID Question 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Outcome(s) assessed H1 H1, H8 H1, H11 H1, H2, H8 H1, H4, H8, H11 H1, H2 H1, H2, H8 H1, H4, H8 H1, H2, H8 H1, H4 H1, H4, H8 H1, H2, H8 H1, H2, H6, H11 H1, H11 H1, H2 H1, H2 H1, H8 H1, H4 H1, H4, H8 Question 21(a) 21(b) 21(c) 21(d) 21(e) 22(a) 22(b) 22(c) 23(a) 23(b) 23(c) 24(a) 24(b) 24(c) 24(d) 24(e) 25 26 27 20 H1, H6, H8 28 Outcome(s) assessed H1, H8 H1, H8 H1, H8, H11 H1, H7 H1, H6 H1 H1, H8 H1, H4, H8 H1, H4, H8 H1, H2 H1, H2, H5, H6, H7, H8 H1, H8, H11 H1, H8, H11 H1, H2, H8, H9 H1, H2, H8 H1, H2, H5, H8 H1, H2, H6, H8, H10 H1, H2, H5, H6, H7, H8, H10 H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, H7, H8, H9, H10 H1, H2, H4, H5, H7, H8, H9, H10 The Year 12 Trial HSC examination, marking guidelines/suggested answers and ‘mapping grid’ have been produced to help prepare students for the HSC to the best of our ability. Individual teachers/schools may alter parts of this product to suit their own requirements. NSW Independent Trial Exams 2008 – Economics Yr 12 Trial Examination: Marking Criteria - Page 15