High Desert in 2014 . . .
Economy & Economic Issues
John Husing, Ph.D.
Economics & Politics, Inc.
Chief Economist, IEEP
How Regional Economies Work
Secondary Tier
Economic Development … Increase The Economic Base!
Primary Tier
Three Step Growth Process
Based On Interaction Of:
• Population
• Preferences
• Dirt
Prices Force Decisions
Southern California Population Growth,
2000-2012
People Prefer To Live Near The Coast
As a homeowner, would you prefer to move closer to
work if it involved a townhouse or condo?
(I-15 & Sr-91 Commuters, 2008)
87.5% No
Answer stable over 5 years
Same question to Renters:
72.3% No
Stage #1: Rapid Population Growth
•People forced to move inland for affordable homes
•Population Serving Jobs Only
•High Desert & I-215 South are current examples
Demographics
Population Growth
Population Growth by City
Population by City
Age Distribution
Adult Educational Level
Ethnicity
Median Income By City
Total Income By City
Share of Population In Poverty
Public Assistance
Crime Rates
High Desert Unemployment Rates
Impact of Rental Housing
Foreclosures Direct To Investors
Foreclosures Falling
Absentee Owned Homes, 2012
Community
Homes
Absentee
Owned
Share
7,341
2,124
28.9%
23,011
6,012
26.1%
8,061
1,972
24.5%
Apple Valley
23,068
5,141
22.3%
Hesperia
26,433
5,573
21.1%
101,051
26,886
26.6%
Adelanto
Victorville
Barstow
High Desert
Rentals & Population Density
Exhibit 25.-Population Density
Owner v. Rented Dwelling Units, 2012
City
Owner Occupied
Renter Occupied
Rental Difference
Adelanto
3.49
5.36
53.6%
Silver Lake
2.45
3.53
44.2%
Spring Valley Lake
2.71
3.84
41.5%
High Desert
3.28
3.95
20.6%
Hesperia
3.29
3.96
20.3%
Victorville
3.66
4.31
17.8%
Phelan
2.95
3.42
16.1%
Oak Hills
3.23
3.73
15.7%
Apple Valley
3.06
3.43
12.3%
Barstow
2.99
3.19
6.7%
Pinon Hills
2.43
2.45
0.6%
Lucerne Valley
3.24
2.10
-35.2%
Calls For Police & Fire Service
Exhibit 22.-Relatively Probability of Police Calls for Service, 2012
Dwelling Type
Units
Calls
Calls Per Unit
Higher Probability of Police
Calls vs. SFR Owned
21,898
24,710
1.13
275
350
1.27
13%
12,163
15,898
1.31
16%
Apartments
4,103
6,337
1.54
37%
Two-Four Units
1,063
1,644
1.55
37%
Mobile Homes
1,562
3,281
2.10
86%
Single Family Owned
Condos
Single Family Rented
Attacking The Absentee Owner Issue
#1 Identification
Identify Home In Trouble
•Notice of Default
•Notice of Trustee Sale
•Utilities Shut Off
•Garbage Not Being Put Out
•Property Violating Maintenance Ordinance
•Rental Property
4/17/2014
28
#2 Strategic Code Enforcement
GIS Mapping of Problem Homes
•County Records: NOD, NTS
•Registration of Foreclosed Property
•Inordinate Volume of Police Calls
•Code Enforcement Tours
•Utility Company Records
•Waste Truck Drivers
4/17/2014
29
#3 Ordinance Requiring Registration of
Foreclosed Properties
Lien properties that are clearly a detriment to the
surrounding neighborhood.
Some cities have placed liens on most foreclosed
properties so that they are aware of their condition
when they are going to be sold and have the ability
to identify rental or other such situations.
#4 Ordinance Setting Property
Maintenance Standards
Gives code enforcement the ability to externally
inspect, repair, fine and lien properties that are
clearly a detriment to the surrounding
neighborhood.
#5 Ordinance regulating single family
rentals
Establish business license fees
Mandate periodic code enforcement inspections
Externally inspect, repair, fine and lien properties
that are clearly a detriment to the surrounding
neighborhood.
Periodic fees must be paid to finance internal
inspections any time there is a turnover in tenants.
#6 Small Claims Court Filings
Some cities have assisted neighbors near problem
properties in filing small claims actions against the
owners when their homes are not properly
maintained or where tenants are unruly.
Working with local police, this process has been
successful in getting the attention of landlords to
solve these types of difficulties.
The Fear!
City of San Bernardino
•Once Landlords Get A Major Foothold, Problems Escalate
•Problems Ultimately Become Impossible To Solve
Construction: Finally Some Hope
Existing Home Sales
New Home Sales
Share of Underwater Homes Plunging
Existing Home Prices
51.0%
Existing Home Prices by City
New Home Prices
15.7%
New Home Prices by City
Permits: Tiny Bit of Optimism
Permit Growth by City
Assessed Valuation
Assessed Value By City
Assessed Valuation
Finally Growing (6.1% for SB County)
6.3%
Inflation
Taxable Sales
Retail Sales By City
Retail Sales Growth by City
Exhibit 16.-Retail Sales Growth (000) & Growth Rates, By City
High Desert, 2012-2013
8.8%
Volume Change
Percent Change
7.9%
6.8%
$96,930
$53,553
$53,178
$3,738
0.8%
($3,874)
-3.7%
Barstow
Hesperia
Victorville
Apple Valley
Source: CA Board of Equalization, Hinderliter DeLlamas growth for 2013
Adelanto
Inland Empire Job Growth: 2013
46,833 Jobs
Created
2014 Forecast
Forecast By Group
Inland Empire, 2014e
40,100
12,000
300
2,400
3,200
6,100
8,000
8,100
Where Will IE Be In Its Job History?
2011-2013
81,733 of 143,108 lost or 57.1%
2011-2014
121,833 of 143,108 lost or 85.1%
21,275 Jobs To Go
www.johnhusing.com