A Compara2ve Study on Urbaniza2on and the Altera2on of Industrial Structure Between China and America Linxiu Huang, Xiaobo Wei Visi2ng Scholar in REAL, University of Illinois, Urbana-­‐Champaign, America Department of Economics and Administra2on, South-­‐West University, Chongqing ,China Introduc2on The concept of Middle Income Trap was put forth in 2006 Report on Economic Development of East Asia by World Bank. when the newly booming countries have broken away from the Low Income Trap, namely, 1000 US dollars of GDP per capita, they will rush toward the ‘flight stage’ of 1000-­‐3000 US dollars. But many of these countries will be apt to be trapped in a stands-ll of economic development when they come up to 3000 US dollars of GDP per capita. It seem hard to break through per capita GDP of 3000-­‐5000 US dollars. One of the major reason why the countries got trapped lies in the fact that they failed to realize the transforma-on of economic development and upgrade of industrial structure in a smooth way. In 2007, China’s per capita GDP came up to 3000 US dollars for the first -me. A@er that an obvious slowdown was seen in China’s economic development. The government pay high a\en-on to the ques-on and offer the policy of further urbaniza-on to drive the economic growth and also the industrial structure upgrading. Method • American urbaniza-on kept developing along with remarkable Suburbaniza-on and further realized the balanced development among various regions. (Figure 3 to 4) • Chinese urbaniza-on tend more and more to the urban agglomera-on and city’s popula-on density is ten -me than that of USA, which has brought about series of urban diseases and a serious unbalance manner in different regions. (Figure 5 to 6) •America's industrial structure completed mainly from manufacturing to finance trade and service industry shi@ .For China, manufacture keep outshining others. Figure 3: Propor1ons of urban-­‐rural popula1on in USA (1900-­‐1990) Unit：％ Figure 4: Propor1on of urban popula1on in various sec1on of USA (1900-­‐1990) Unit: ％ 城镇人口占比
• By means of compara-ve and empirical studies, and with a lot of sta-s-c data. a compara-ve analysis on American urbaniza-on and altera-on of industrial structure since 20th century and those of China since 1980. • The analysis lies on three major indexes: the standard of GDP, the standard of urbaniza-on and the altera-on of industrial structure. • Data mainly comes from the United States and China’s panel data. From 1900 to 1970, America’s economy finished 3 transforma-on: the per capita GDP was from $206(1900) to $10383(1970); the urbanizing level was from 40%(1900) to 75%(1970); This period also saw that USA finished the shi@ of industrial structure in that its service industry began to dominate in stead of manufactory industry. China’s situa-on is: the per capita GDP just reached $5432(2011);the urbanizing level was 47%(2010) and the second industry is s-ll dominant. 5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
中小城镇人口占都市总人口比
东部
60.00
60
50.00
50
40.00
40
30.00
30
20.00
20
10.00
10
0.00
西部
中部
全国
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Figure 5: Propor1ons of urban-­‐rural popula1on in China (1980-­‐2010) Unit：％ Figure 6: Propor1on of urban popula1on in various sec1on of Chian (1980-­‐2010) Unit: ％ Agriculture
Manufacturing
service industry
construction and transportation
Finance and Trade
Per Capita GDP
40
27000
23185 24000
21000
18000
15000
35
30
25
20
12243
12000
9000
6000
3000
0
15
10
5063
5
0
767
1940
1936
1950
2912
1960
1970
1980
1990
农业
金融贸易
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
建筑运输业
服务业
制造业
人均GDP
33000
30015
30000
27000
24000
21000
18000
15000
14185
12000
9000
7858
6000
5046
3000
1644
858
463
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Figure 7: Figure 4-­‐3: Altera1on of GDP propor1on of US industries & per capita GDP （le? side unit: ％, right side unit: US dollar） Figure 8 : Figure 4-­‐10: Altera1on of GDP propor1on in China’s industries and per capita GDP （le? side unit：%, right side unit: yuan） 19
48
19
52
19
56
19
60
19
64
19
68
19
72
19
76
19
80
19
84
19
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
20
04
20
08
Conclusions Figure 1: increase tendency of America’s GDP and its average value (1948-­‐2008),with 1980 as the boundary line. By means of H-­‐P wave filtering. 中国GDP趋势值增速
均值
Figure 2: increase tendency of China’s GDP and its average value.(1980-­‐1999, 2000-­‐2012), by means of H-­‐P wave filtering. 20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
27.5
25
22.5
20
17.5
15
12.5
10
7.5
5
2.5
0
19
80
Results American urbaniza-on, for certain, has a posi-ve rela-onship with its economic development. The American suburbaniza-on results from the pursuit for the life quality by the rich and the suitable support by the governmental policy, which gives rise to a sound recycle of the move of mid-­‐class—promo-on of investment and consumers—more people on the shi@. At the same -me, its technology and industrial innova-on drives the con-nuous op-miza-on of industrial structure. This is a important policy enlightenment for China. L R | E | A | REGIONAL ECONOMICS APPLICATIONS LABORATORY UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA-­‐CHAMPAIGN