The Goddess and the “Green Revolution” How complex systems science helped restore Bali’s once-thriving rice terraces
Inhabitants of the Indonesian island province of Bali are deeply connected to their centuries-old
culture, especially when it comes to the cultivation of their land’s most vital crop: rice. The
grain is so intrinsic to the Balinese diet, its
indigenous name, nasi, is also the word for
At a Glance
“meal.”
Restoring Bali’s Rice Terraces
Bali’s landscape is filled with lush curving wetrice terraces, like the contour lines of a
topographic map. For 1,000 years, farmers
irrigated the fields they tended on these steppes
with rainwater that flowed through a
honeycomb of manmade tunnels built over the
centuries.
Despite the vast space set aside to cultivate
rice, and the success farmers had in growing it,
Indonesia was growing so rapidly that by the
1950s it had to import rice from abroad. The
expectation of continued population growth
meant something had to be done.
Situation: New products and modern methods of
farming meant to increase Bali’s rice production
instead began to devastate the island’s crops.
Solution: Applied complex systems modeling for
transdisciplinary insights from anthropology,
natural science, and religious studies to prove the
superiority of Bali’s centuries-old farming methods.
SFI scientist:
Steve Lansing, External Professor
Professor, University of Arizona
Anthropology and Ecology & Evolutionary Biology
Fertilize and Revolutionize
The Asian Development Bank, part of the
World Bank, and the Indonesian government
decided in the mid-1970s that it was time to
boost the production of rice on the island, and
that the “Green Revolution” was the way to go
about it. This term represented the introduction
of modern agricultural science as a way to
increase the agricultural yields of developing
countries. Specifically, it meant new highyield varieties of grain and the use of chemical
fertilizers and pesticides.
The new rice – dubbed “miracle rice” – and the
modern chemicals increased Bali’s rice
production exceedingly well. For a very short
time.
The bumper crops began to wane after the first
year-and-a-half or so. In the traditional system,
farmers coordinated their irrigation schedules
Bali_Case_Study_110411.doc
Results:
• Halted an environmental catastrophe in Bali.
• Balinese farmers encouraged to return to the
religion-driven planting and irrigation methods
their ancestors had optimized; rice production
has subsequently returned to pre-Green
Revolution levels.
• A greater understanding of the need to examine
numerous natural and human dynamics before
introducing new methods into a complex
adaptive system.
• The Balinese water temple system is under
consideration for World Heritage Site status.
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and their fallow periods in order to bring down pest populations. The Green Revolution
approach, however, required each farmer to plant rice as often as possible. This change caused
the supply of irrigation water to become less predictable, and it made it easier for rice pests to
migrate from field to field. As the farmers said, “Miracle rice has produced miracle pests.”
Goddess of the Waters
It was pure coincidence that Steve Lansing, a Santa Fe Institute external professor, was spending
time in Bali studying its temples just as the Green Revolution was taking place. What was not
coincidence, he believed, was that the decline of Bali’s rice harvests was occurring at the same
time the farmers were ordered to abandon their traditional system of irrigation scheduling, which
had long been coordinated through the water temple networks.
The water temple rituals involved subaks, village-level groups of farmers whose crops rely on
the same water sources. Subak members would gather each month at their local water temple
where they coordinated cropping patterns and irrigation schedules. Once a year, temple
representatives would gather at the supreme water temple, located at the island’s central lake and
inhabited by, they believed, the goddess of the waters. Priests would collect holy water from the
lake and portion it out to the representatives to bring back to their temples for local distribution.
Ultimately, each farmer would receive a few drops to sprinkle over his fields as a symbol of the
blessing of the Lake Goddess.
Given the new variety of grain and the chemical marvels provided to help it grow, obtaining
blessings from goddesses should have become unnecessary. However, as Steve saw the
Bali_Case_Study_110411.doc
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agricultural system begin to collapse, he suspected that the water temple rituals served a greater
purpose: they enabled the subaks to strike an optimal balance between water sharing and
controlling rice pests with synchronized fallow periods. Before the Green Revolution, this
system worked so well it was effectively invisible, even to the farmers. The Green Revolution
inadvertently revealed the functional role of the temple networks by disrupting the irrigation
schedules.
Steve explained the problem to the Asian Development Bank in an unsolicited report. In it, he
recommended that the Bank allow the farmers to restore the temples to their traditional role in
water management. The planners were unconvinced, arguing that the temples were suitable for
native Balinese rice, but not for the faster-growing Green Revolution crops.
A Model of Supreme Cooperation
Steve’s response maintained that the temple networks did not impose a ritual clockwork on the
irrigation schedules; instead they gave the farmers a flexible tool to adjust to changing
environmental conditions. But the Bank remained unconvinced. So he and ecologist James
Kremer devised a computer model to explore the effects of temple coordination on irrigation
flows, pest outbreaks, and rice harvests for 172 subaks operating along two rivers.
In the simulations, each subak would begin with a random cropping pattern and irrigation
schedule. After every harvest, the subaks compared their yields to those of neighboring subaks.
A subak would then adjust its cropping patterns and irrigation schedules to match those of its
neighbor, only if the neighbor’s rice yields are higher.
Shrine for Lake Goddess at an irrigation canal.
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No matter what “external” conditions the researchers changed in their model – rainfall, water
flow, rice growth, pest biology – over several “modeling years” the virtual subaks adjusted their
cropping patterns and irrigation schedules such that, without trying, synchronized patterns
emerged and rice yields for the overall model were optimal. Moreover, the simulations always
formed a near match of the subaks’ actual practices. “As we repeated these simulations,” says
Steve, “we found that it is almost impossible not to grow a water temple system.”
In other words, simulation models showed that temple networks self-organize, incrementally
creating a globally optimal system of water use. This was a real-world example of a complex
adaptive system with emergent properties, whose very existence had gone unnoticed until the
simulation model revealed how it worked.
Ending Agricultural Chaos
Based on the modeling results, the Bank conceded. Bali’s water temple networks became a
celebrated example of the emergent properties of a complex adaptive system – a new perspective
that quickly spread in the fields of development and environmental science. In Bali, after the
return to temple management, water was used more effectively, pest populations declined, and
crop yields began to return to pre-Green Revolution rates. The water temple network is now
being considered by UNESCO for recognition on its World Heritage list.
Steve says, “Without the complexity perspective, this amazing system would very likely have
gone unrecognized. It certainly would have been threatened by ongoing development projects
that failed to recognize how it worked.” Fortunately, Bali’s wet-rice terraces, which the Balinese
liken to faceted jewels, are thriving once again.
SFI simulation models showed that temple networks self-organize, creating a globally optimal
scale of water use.
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