60 years of average annual temperature rise …
warmer
cooler
Sudbury
Since 1955
• Average Annual mean temperature has
risen by 1.60C
• Average Spring mean temperature has
risen by 1.90C
• Average Winter mean temperature has
risen by 2.40C
• Average Annual min temp has risen
by 1.40C
• Average Spring min temp has risen
by 10C
• Average Winter min temp has risen
by 2.40C
Since 1955
• Average Spring max temp has
risen by 2.4 0C ... Days are warmer
• Average Summer max temp has
risen by 10C
Since 1955
• Average annual max temp
has risen by 1.80C
• Average Fall max temp has
risen by 10C
Warming is not uniform geographically …
Annual precipitation
Regional distribution of linear annual precipitation trends (%
change) between 1948 and 2003. "X" indicates areas where the
trend is statistically significant.
Zhang et al. (2000), updated in 2005
NRCan 2007
Since 1955
• Total annual precipitation has
increased by about 12% or 100m
• Total summer precipitation has not
changed
• Total winter precipitation has
increased by about 25% or 40mm
• Total Fall precipitation has increased
by about 4% or 10mm
• Total Spring precipitation has
increased by about 30% or 50mm
The global situation - the Earth is getting warmer …
John Holdren
The greenhouse effect
Most radiation (short
wave) from the very hot
sun penetrates
the atmosphere and
warms the Earth’s
surface
Some radiation from a
warmed Earth (long wave)
is captured by water vapour
and gases (e.g.CO2) in the
atmosphere forming a
warm “blanket” around the
planet.
More CO2 increases H2O
through evaporation
Chiras, 2001
temperature
CO2 warming
1961-1990 average
IPCC
temperature
Variability in Sun +
volcanoes+ CO2
CO2
warming
aerosol
cooling
CO2 is one of several factors affecting
global temperature
rising carbon dioxide
380 ppm
CO2 now the
dominant
factor 280 ppm
Vostok Drilling Station Antarctica
Vostok
Vostok
450,000 year record of CO2 and temperature in
an Antarctic ice core (Vostok)
First rise in temp comes before CO2 increase until release of
ocean CO2 drives warming about 600 yrs later
Interglacial
warming because
of
interglacial
warming
warm
1. Changes in
geometry of
Earth’s orbit
2. Release of CO2
from warmer
ocean water
cold
cold
Geometry of Earth’s orbit
Earth’s orbit changes from nearly circular
to elliptical and back over about 100,000
years. We are now about 5 million km
(3%) closer to the Sun in January than in
July
The tilt of the axis of rotation changes
from an angle of 21.5o to 24.5o and back
over 41,000 years. It is currently 23.4o
The Earth’s axis wobbles like a top over a
cycle of 26,000 yrs, shifting the seasons
around the orbit. Vega was the “North
Star” 13,000 years ago.
Low tilt + more distance in summer = cool
temp = survival of snow = Ice Age
Atlantic Ocean current system
• deep currents take 500 yrs to travel the length of the ocean
• cold deep water loses dissolved CO2 at warm ocean surface
“Massive changes in climate have occurred in the
past - today’s trend is nothing new”…
45 million years ago
• Redwood forests in the Arctic
• Temperate climate plant
fossils in Alaska and
Greenland
70 million years ago
• Dinosaur fossils found within
15 degrees of the South Pole
• Earth was 9 – 12 o C warmer
• Sea level was much higher
• No ice at poles
Sounds good but is it really ?
66 mill yrs ago
Efficient equatorial currents deliver energy
to polar North Atlantic
Himalayan
Seaway
open
Open water
connects
Pacific to Atlantic
Australia
joined to
Antarctica
Little water between South
America and Antarctica
Global
geography in the
geological past
The Panama
land bridge
formed from
a chain of
volcanoes 3
million yrs ago
cutting
circulation
between the
Atlantic and
Pacific.
Atlantic
Pacific
Ice caps
formed in the
N. Hemisphere
2 million yrs ago
Panama
land bridge
Melting Arctic
icecap
29 April 2006
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
14 Nov 2005
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
Hudson Bay
Earlier break up in south and west
0.5 to 1.25 days / yr
Later freeze up in north and north east
0.3 to 0.5 days / yr
Gagnon, A.S. and W.A. Gough
ARCTIC 58, 4. 2005
Jeff Schmaltz NASA
21 May, 2005
Day of the year when the WesternJeffHudson
Schmaltz NASA
Bay ice cover decreased to 50% or less
July 3
June 13
Trend shows ice breaking up 7-8 days earlier per decade
NASA Nimbus 7
Polar feedback
GSC Harvey Thorleifson
Magali Lesauvage
Precipitation trends are also not uniform …
and may be shifting
NW Ontario Flood
June 8-11, 2002
• ~400 mm of rain in 48 hours over NW Ontario region
bordering Manitoba and Minnesota
• Rainfall of over 360 mm for small basin area (100 km2)
exceeded current regulatory flood “Timmins Storm”
by 2 to 3 times for 48 hour period
New “Design Storm” for this area based on this event ???
Shifting averages shift extremes too …
Changed Climate
Current Climate
Frequency or
Probability of
Coping Range
occurrence
(e.g.1 in 80 yrs)
Greater
probability of
extremes beyond
the coping
range under
changed climate
But will the
tail of extremes
really be this
shape ?

X

Xcc
Monitor
events
Values of Climatic Attribute (X)
After Barry Smit 2001
Finch Avenue washout, August 2005
Damaging 2 high pressure gas mains, drinking water
main, telephone, hydro, and cable lines.
crazyjew.net
Projecting the trend of yesterday’s climate …
Egginton and Lavender
Projected change in average seasonal air temperature (0 C ) over Ontario for 2050s compared
with 1961 – 1990 under MODERATE GHG emissions (average of A1B and B2 emission
scenarios using ensemble of 24 GCMs) CCCSN / Environment Canada. Courtesy Neil Comer
Summer
Spring
Winter
Fall
(Environment Canada CCCSN 2009)
Residual risk
Vulnerability evident
Coping range
UKCIP
Adaptation
Guelph SmartCentres
Walmart parking lot
Daily Commercial News. 24 Aug 2007
CULTEC
Parking lot drains to
collection system that
allows removal of oil and
grease followed by
infiltration into
groundwater. Avoids
adding load to the
stormwater system while
helping recharge the
underlying aquifer.
Artist’s rendering
of the parking lot
subsurface
Limits to adaptation cumulative critical impacts
Inevitable
beyond
collective adaptation
intolerable
EU goal
“dangerous”
No time to lose
...
finding a
framework for
change, change
and more
change
David Pearson
Laurentian University
1 March 2011
Boundary of Far North for illustration only
Change in highest 5 day pptn amount (%) 1950 - 2003
“Overall, these
results suggest
that the increase in the annual
total precipitation observed
during the second half of the
century is due mostly to more
days with precipitation with no
consistent changes being found
in most extreme precipitation
indices.” Vincent and Mekis
(2006)
Vincent and Mekis, 2006
However, it is important to note that the footprint of extreme rain events can
be very small and not observed by met stations – e.g. Finch Avenue, 2005
Climate change needs a two part response …
• Adapting to changing weather patterns that have
begun and future changes that are bound to occur
because of past and near future emissions
• Limiting (mitigating) future climate change by
reducing ghg emissions to the atmosphere …
including green energy, conservation, carbon
capture and storage and protecting existing carbon
stores – e.g. peatlands of Far North Ontario
http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc/change/pdf/cciad.highlights_e.pdf
Where we might be headed:
The next 100 years compared to the last 400
Coloured lines pre-2000 are proxy-based average
temperature reconstructions by different groups.
Gray wedge 2010-2100 shows the range of
temperature scenarios for the future developed by
the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change.
Continuation of recent trends (middle of band)
leads by 2100 to temperatures not reached since
~30 million years ago, when sea level was 20-30 m
higher.
European Union goal, adopted
2002, is not to exceed 20C above
pre-industrial temperature.
John Holdren, 2007
MEGA ADAPTATION
U West Aus
The Thames Barrier.
To protect London, U.K., from
extreme floods caused by rain,
spring tide and storm surges
compounded by rising sea level
in the English Channel
As water warms it expands and sea level rises …
Holdren 2010
Potential impact of sea level rise on the Nile delta
Impact of sea level rise is not
only loss of homes but also
•Destruction of sand bars protecting
lagoons and reclaimed land
•One third of Egypt’s fish catch
comes from the lagoons
•Agricultural land lost
•Alexandria, Port Said plus tourist resorts flooded
•Ground water becomes salty
(Dykes could lessen flooding from 0.5m rise but
not the salination of ground water)
Georgian Bay
“Dry Docks”
Karl Schiefer EcoMetrix
NASA
Great Lakes Atlas EPA / EC 1995 3rd edition
Lake effect snow - December 26, 2009
… and January, 1998
Extent of the 1998 Ice Storm in eastern Ontario, southwest Quebec, New
Brunswick, and parts of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.
Colours show the accumulation of ice in mm from January 4th to 10th, 1998.
Norman Einstein from Env. Canada data
Air masses “teleconnect” the
Great Lakes to El Nino and La
Nina ocean cycles in the
Pacific and to the North
Atlantic Oscillation
(Wang, B.J., X. Bai, G. Leshkevich,
M. Colton, A. Clites, and B. Lorgren.
2010. Severe Ice Cover on Great
Lakes During Winter 2008–2009.
Eos, Transactions of the American
Geophysical Union, 91, 41-52.)
Mich Tech
Conservation Ontario
Mountain pine beetle damage in lodgepole pine, B.C.
Lorraine Maclauchlan, BC Ministry of Forests
What were they thinking ?
Dangerous and globally destabilizing impacts
European Union policy recognizes 2 0C as onset of “dangerous” climate change
NO, NO, NO.
Climate change
is NOT a
path to
prosperity