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DecisionTools Suite
Product Section:
Operating System:
Palisade Product Number:
Retail Price with Maintenance:
Decision Analysis
Windows - Stand Alone and Add-ins for Excel
1200 (Standard), 1201 (Professional), 1202 (Industrial)
$1,430 Standard, $1,790 Professional, $2,270 Industrial
DecisionTools That Work Together
The DecisionTools® Suite is an integrated set of programs
designed to work together to provide combined analyses and
maximum functionality - optimum decision analysis in one
package! The DecisionTools Suite brings together up to seven
products:
@RISK,
PrecisionTree®,
TopRank®,
®
®
RISKOptimizer ,
BestFit ,
RISKview™,
and
@RISKAccelerator®. Installation is fast and easy, using a single
CD-ROM. The programs themselves have been designed to work
together in an integrated environment, running from a common
toolbar in Microsoft Excel.
With the DecisionTools Suite, you can perform advanced analyses
you could not perform with any single product. Create a decision
tree in PrecisionTree, then use @RISK to run a Risk Analysis on it.
Take data stored in another workbook, use BestFit to find the
distribution that fits that data, and use the distribution with
@RISK.
@RISK 4.5’s advanced graphing is just one of the powerful
analyses you’ll perform with the DecisionTools Suite!
The DecisionTools Suite includes some or all of the following products:
@RISK (Professional Edition)
The Risk Analysis and Simulation add-in for Excel. @RISK adds the power of Monte Carlo simulation to any spreadsheet
model. Replace uncertain values in your spreadsheet with @RISK functions which represent a range of possible values.
Select one or more bottom-line cells as outputs, and start a simulation. @RISK recalculates your spreadsheet hundreds or
even thousands of times, each time selecting random values from the @RISK functions you’ve entered. The result: a
distribution of possible outcomes and the probability of getting those results. This not only tells you what could happen in
a given situation, but how likely it is that it will happen. Results can be displayed as high-resolution graphs and in a full
statistical report. Advanced features include Sensitivity and Scenario Analyses, overlay graphs, and multiple summary
graphs. The DecisionTools Suite comes with @RISK 4.5 Professional, which integrates RISKview 4.5 for distribution
viewing, and BestFit 4.5 for distribution fitting (see below). And @RISK 4.5 runs up to ten times faster than previous
versions, and includes an intuitive Microsoft Office-style interface.
PrecisionTree (Standard or Professional Edition)
The Decision Analysis add-in for Excel. Create influence diagrams and decision trees right in your existing spreadsheets!
Use influence diagrams to see the relationships between components of a problem, then decision trees to model the
sequence of events. Results include a full statistical report and risk profile graphs. Sensitivity Analysis tells you which
factors in your decision are most important. Advanced features include linked trees, logic nodes, and reference nodes.
PrecisionTree Pro adds policy suggestion graphs and strategy region graphs!
TopRank (Standard or Professional Edition)
The What-if Analysis add-in for Excel. Take any spreadsheet and TopRank automatically determines which cells affect
results the most and ranks them in order of importance. Results can be displayed as Tornado graphs and in a full statistical
report. Advanced features include a What-if Wizard, Multi-Way What-if Analysis, and support for data tables. TopRank
Pro features unlimited Multi-Way What-if Analysis.
Palisade Corporation, 31 Decker Road, Newfield, NY 14867 USA
TEL: 800-432-7475 or 607-277-8000, FAX: 607-277-8001
sales@palisade.com, www.palisade.com
DecisionTools Suite
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RISKOptimizer (Industrial Edition)
The simulation and optimization solution for Excel. Optimize your @RISK models to find the best possible solution to
your problem! RISKOptimizer combines genetic algorithm optimization with Monte Carlo simulation to find the best
possible combination of factors to lead to a desired result. For instance, you could find the optimal combination of projects
to maximize your firm’s profits. Available in the DecisionTools Suite Industrial.
BestFit
The distribution fitting solution for Windows. BestFit takes data (now up to 100,000 points or pairs with BestFit 4.5) and
finds the distribution function that best fits that data. BestFit accepts three types of data: sample, density, and cumulative.
BestFit tests up to 26 distribution types using advanced optimization algorithms. Results are displayed graphically and
through a statistical report which includes goodness-of-fit statistics. BestFit 4.5 offers complete control over fitting
parameters, and offers new graphics and an Office-style interface. BestFit distributions can be used directly in @RISK,
TopRank, or PrecisionTree models. The DecisionTools Suite includes BestFit fully integrated with @RISK 4.5, and also as
a stand-alone application.
RISKview
The distribution viewing companion program. It is a powerful tool for viewing, assessing, and creating probability
distributions. Draw distribution functions with the Distribution Artist and place them in @RISK models as General
distributions. RISKview also calculates the distribution that best fits your hand-drawn curve from 37 distribution types!
Now RISKview 4.5 offers sharper graphics than ever before, sliding delimiters on graphs, and overlay graphs. The
DecisionTools Suite includes RISKview integrated with @RISK 4.5, and also as a stand-alone application.
@RISKAccelerator
The parallel-processing solution for faster simulations. Speed up large simulations by using all CPUs in a multi-CPU
machine. If your PC has two processors, your simulations will run nearly twice as fast! With integrated
@RISKAccelerator, @RISK Industrial lets you take full advantage of the additional processing speed available with
increasingly popular multi-processor machines.
Standard, Professional,
and Industrial Suite Versions Available
The DecisionTools Suite comes in three versions – Standard, Professional and
Industrial. All versions include @RISK 4.5 Professional, BestFit 4.5, and
RISKview 4.5. The Standard version adds the standard versions of TopRank
and PrecisionTree, while the Professional and Industrial versions include the
professional versions of these programs. DecisionTools Industrial adds
RISKOptimizer Industrial as well as built-in @RISKAccelerator to utilize all
available CPUs in a single machine during simulation.
DecisionTools Suite Features
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DecisionTools Suite
Available in Three Editions!
Standard
Includes @RISK 4.5 Pro, BestFit 4.5,
RISKview 4.5, PrecisionTree Standard,
TopRank Standard
Professional
Includes @RISK 4.5 Pro, BestFit 4.5,
RISKview 4.5, PrecisionTree Pro,
TopRank Pro
Easy installation from one CD
Common Excel toolbar to access all programs
Designed to work together to provide integrated risk and decision
analysis
Best
Industrial
@RISK - Risk Analysis
Value!
Includes
@RISK
4.5 Pro, BestFit 4.5,
PrecisionTree - Decision Analysis
RISKview
4.5,
PrecisionTree
Pro,
TopRank - What-if Analysis
TopRank Pro, RISKOptimizer Industrial,
RISKOptimizer – Optimization with Simulation
and @RISKAccelerator
BestFit - Distribution Fitting
RISKview - Distribution Previewing
@RISKAccelerator – parallel processing to speed up simulations
Standard, Professional, and Industrial Versions Available
Great value – save up to 40% versus buying component products separately!
Palisade Corporation, 31 Decker Road, Newfield, NY 14867 USA
TEL: 800-432-7475 or 607-277-8000, FAX: 607-277-8001
sales@palisade.com, www.palisade.com
DecisionTools Suite
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DecisionTools Suite Example: The Restaurant Franchise Problem
Consider the venture of opening a new fast food franchise in your city. Do you build a restaurant with a drive-thru window,
a playground, both, or neither? To begin, you need to determine the costs involved to see if you can afford the project.
You also need to determine the best size of restaurant to build in order to maximize profits in the long run. Start by
building a spreadsheet in Microsoft Excel. You model could calculate how much it will cost to build a restaurant with a
drive-thru window and a playground. Building materials and other costs are also accounted for.
Step 1: TopRank for What-If Analysis
First, run TopRank on your model to determine the critical inputs. There are over 30 variables in your model, but after
running TopRank you see that only five have a major impact on the cost of the project: cement cost (Q1), equipment,
cement cost (Q2), furniture, and labor. You decide to concentrate on these variables for your Risk Analysis. By using
TopRank, you reduced the amount of distributions you need to define for your risk analysis by over 80%!
Step 2: BestFit for Data Fitting
To run a Risk Analysis with @RISK, you need to replace those five
variables identified by TopRank with @RISK probability distribution
functions. With historical data for these values available from previous
restaurant construction projects, you feed these data sets into BestFit to
get distribution functions for each data set. BestFit’s confidence levels
and critical values guarantee that you have accurately fitted distributions
for your @RISK model.
Step 3: RISKview for Distribution Previewing
Now, replace the five values in your model with the functions BestFit
returned. However, you have recently gotten information from your
furniture outlet that prices have been dropping lately, and now you need
BestFit 4.5 gives you stunning graphs and more fitting to reflect this information in the distribution that you are using for
furniture price. RISKview allows you to take a look at the distribution
options than ever.
you are using and try different parameters or functions to find a
distribution that more accurately fits the situation.
Step 4: @RISK for Risk Analysis
You are now ready to run a simulation with @RISK! @RISK results show that there is an 88% chance the project will stay
within your budget, and an 11% chance it will actually cost less than your "best-case scenario". In terms of cost, you are
ready to go ahead with the project.
Step 5: PrecisionTree Runs a
Decision Analysis
Having determined that you can build a fast food restaurant within
your budget, you need to decide whether to build a drive-thru
window and/or a playground. You build a decision tree in
PrecisionTree modeling the costs for obtaining a building permit
for the various types of restaurants, as well as estimates for profit
potential after five years. Your results indicate that building a
medium-sized restaurant with a drive-thru window and a
playground is your optimal decision.
Step 6: @RISK & PrecisionTree
for Advanced Analysis
@RISK and PrecisionTree combine for the most powerful risk
What about uncertain factors in your decision tree? Run a Risk
and decision analysis available anywhere!
Analysis on your decision tree using @RISK. You replace your
profit and cost estimates with @RISK functions. Next, simulate
your decision tree with @RISK. The results confirm that building a restaurant with a drive-thru window and a playground
will maximize profits, with a 12% probability of making more money than you possibly thought you could!
Palisade Corporation, 31 Decker Road, Newfield, NY 14867 USA
TEL: 800-432-7475 or 607-277-8000, FAX: 607-277-8001
sales@palisade.com, www.palisade.com
DecisionTools Suite
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Step 7: RISKOptimizer for the Best Solution
Now let’s take another look at the original @RISK model. You have defined five “uncontrollable” cost variables using
probability distribution functions, but there are many “controllable” factors in your model that could affect the project’s
total cost. For example, you must decide how many people to hire, how much furniture to buy, how much cement to use.
Your @RISK analysis only accounted for scenarios at a single state of those controllable variables. Use RISKOptimizer to
determine the optimal allocation of resources for personnel, furniture, and cement subject to constraints such as total budget
and cement safety minimums. By having RISKOptimizer try many different combinations – and simulate each one – you
find that you can build the restaurant cheaper than you originally thought!
Become a Decision Analysis Expert!
The DecisionTools Suite comes with a wide variety of resources to help you get started and overcome problems.
Comprehensive multimedia tutorials walk you through the features of @RISK, RISKOptimizer, PrecisionTree and
TopRank and demonstrate how to set up and run models, step-by-step. The users manual for each application is written in
straightforward, plain English and even provides background information on Risk Analysis, Decision Analysis and other
techniques. All manuals are also available electronically in the on-line Help menus. @RISK 4.5 features a comprehensive,
context-sensitive Help file to zero in your question. You can search on a particular topic, or simply ask a plain English
question using the “How Do I...” feature! Finally, example files are provided for all programs that can be used as templates
for building your own model.
If you would like further resources, Palisade carries a number of books on how to get the
most from the DecisionTools Suite (see below). We also offer Software Training Seminars
and customized on-site training classes on the DecisionTools Suite worldwide. These
classes provide hands-on training on how to use the software, and teach valuable modelbuilding techniques. Call or visit our web
site at www.palisade.com for more
details and the latest seminar schedule!
Call for details!
Get The Best Answers With The DecisionTools Suite!
Each product in the DecisionTools Suite can provide answers to a particular aspect of a decision problem. However, for the
most comprehensive analyses, use them together to provide a more accurate and detailed analysis than you could with any
single DecisionTool. With the DecisionTools Suite, you can start tackling the big problems today!
System Requirements: IBM PC compatible Pentium or higher; Microsoft
Windows 95 or higher; Excel 97 or higher; 16MB RAM free.
Recommended: 32 MB RAM installed.
Pricing and Maintenance:
$1,430 Standard, $1,790 Professional; $2,270 Industrial. Individual programs also
available separately.
All prices include one year of maintenance. Maintenance includes free, unlimited
technical support and free version upgrades.
Version: 4.5
Demo: Free demo CD and trial version available
Recommended Books: Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization I
and II; Simulation Modeling Using @RISK; Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide;
Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools; Data Analysis for Managers; Decision
Analysis for Management Judgment; Practical Management Science
Palisade Corporation, 31 Decker Road, Newfield, NY 14867 USA
TEL: 800-432-7475 or 607-277-8000, FAX: 607-277-8001
sales@palisade.com, www.palisade.com