BUSINESS CASE:
BLOW BACK TANK
PRODUCTION FACILITY
FOR:
THE COUNTY OF NEWELL #4
June 5, 2008
Prepared by:
Outlook Market Research and Consulting Ltd
1455 Toshack Road
West St. Paul, MB, R4A 8A6
outlook@outlookmarketresearch.com
DISCLAIMER:
This study was produced with information that was considered factual and dependable at
the time of formulation. However, the oil industry is evolving at a rapid pace and is
somewhat unpredictable.
Therefore, those considering an investment in the energy industry should consider the
information contained herein as a general example and must conduct further in depth
research into the potential viability of oil and gas enterprises.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Situation Analysis
4
1.1 Introduction: The Opportunity
1.1.1
Unconventional Gas
4
4
1.1.2 The Fracturing (Fracing) Process
7
1.1.3
9
Blow Back Tanks
1.2 Current Situation and Environmental Analysis
10
1.2.1 Environmental Scan
10
1.2.2 Political Environment
11
1.2.3 Economic Environment
11
1.2.4 Social Environment
13
1.2.5 Technology
14
1.2.6 Labour Relations
15
1.3 Project Partners
2. Operation Analysis
15
16
2.1 Location
16
2.2 Plant
16
2.3 Process
16
2.4 Transportation
16
2.5 Personnel
16
2.6 Management
17
2.7 Business Administration
17
2.8 Regulatory
17
3. Marketing Analysis
18
3.1 Market Research
18
3.2 Marketing Strategy
18
3.2.1 Target Market
18
3.2.2 Sustainable Competitive Advantage
19
3.3 Marketing Plan
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2
4. Financial Analysis
20
4.1 Estimate Capital Costs
20
4.2 Estimated Operating Revenues & Expenses
20
4.21 Assessing Demand
20
4.211 County of Newell Demand
21
4.212 Alberta Demand
21
4.213 Saskatchewan Demand
22
4.214 U.S. Demand
22
4.215 Rental Revenues
23
4.216 Existing Supply
23
4.217 Overall Trends
23
4.22 Revenue Estimation
24
4.23 Financial Projections
25
4.3 Estimated ROI
26
4.4 Break Even Analysis
26
.5. Conclusion
27
Appendix 1: Blowback Tank Drawings
28
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1. SITUATION ANALYSIS
1.1
INTRODUCTION: THE OPPORTUNITY
This first section outlines the nature of the challenge in extracting natural gas in some
areas, the fracing process that is used to help with the extraction, and how blowback
tanks fit into the fracing process.
1.1.1
Unconventional Gas (Low Deliverability and Low Pressure Gas Resources)
Canada has large deposits of natural gas in the subject categories that are ordinarily
difficult and expensive to produce. These are located in low permeability complex
reservoirs and coal deposits.
However, through the development of new technologies and efficient management
policies, the feasibility and economics of producing these resources have improved
substantially. As a result, large volumes of natural gas can be produced more
economically. The techniques used include:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Low cost drilling methods such as coiled tubing drilling
Under-balanced drilling
Efficient well stimulation methods including acid and fracture treatments
Drilling multiple wells from single drilling sites
Drilling wells that allow simultaneous production from multiple, vertically
stacked reservoirs
Developing low cost gathering and compression systems
Achieving economies of scale by drilling large numbers of wells and
developing the supporting infrastructure in single well coordinated
programs
New Markets
British Columbia and Saskatchewan are on the verge of a huge oil and natural gas
exploration boom as companies pour hundreds of millions of dollars into land rights.
Alberta, during its 2004-06 boom years, saw billions of dollars flood into the
provincial treasury, peaking in 2006 with a stunning $3.4-billion paid to scoop up
fast-disappearing exploration territory, especially in the oil sands. And now, there are
new prospects in neighbouring provinces.
B.C. achieved $152-million from its latest sale of exploration rights. Buoyed by high
natural gas prices and big exploration prospects, energy companies are rushing to
stake a claim in the province's northeast.
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In February 2008 Saskatchewan took in $197-million in a single sale of exploration
rights, by far its biggest-ever sale – and almost as much as it previously generated in
an entire year. Stoked by $100-a-barrel oil, companies are in a frenzy over the
Bakken play in the southeast part of the province, where interest has percolated in
recent years and has now exploded.
New exploration rights are closely correlated with drilling activity, which remains
active in Alberta but is poised to notably broaden beyond the province. The pace of
gas well drilling is a good indicator of future gas production (because of the time lag
of bringing new wells into production and attaching them to the pipeline grid). In
January 2008, 1,346 gas wells were drilled, a 21% decrease from the January 2007
level.1
The Colorado shales are thought to have around 300 Tcf of gas in place. Over 50,000
wells have been drilled through the Colorado shales chasing deeper conventional gas
targets. The Newell Region of Alberta contains natural gas reserves that account for
approximately seventy-five percent of total area’s oil and gas production.
“The Cretaceous Colorado is one of the biggest untapped unconventional gas
resources in North America, which to date has had little commercial success and has
been waiting for technological breakthroughs. 2
The Petroleum Services Association of Canada (PSAC) predicts that 14,500 wells
will be drilled across the country in 2008. At the drilling peak - in 2005 - over 25,000
wells were drilled.
PSAC predicts a 10 per cent increase in drilling in 2008 over 2007 levels for British
Columbia. And the association forecasts a three per cent increase in drilling for both
Saskatchewan and Manitoba. 3
New Technologies
Beyond high commodity prices and strong prospects, advances in technology
underpin the industry's new look at B.C. and Saskatchewan. Horizontal drilling
techniques, and better fracturing of subsurface reservoirs, is helping unlock
previously difficult-to-recover oil and gas. 4
Canadian gas companies have developed successful strategies for making natural gas
from coal (NGC) flow economically from some of the country’s coal seams and
1
Canadian Natural Gas: Monthly Market Update – January 2008, Natural Gas Division, Petroleum
Resources Branch, Energy Sector, Natural Resources Canada. 2008_1_English206OAD-19022008-6775
2
Unconventional gas explorers lay technical foundations for shale gas development across Canada.
http://www.oilandgasinquirer.com/articles.asp?ID=503
3
http://www.oilandgasinquirer.com/articles.asp?ID=516
4
The Globe and Mail, Alberta's energy crown threatened, DAVID EBNER, March 27, 2008.
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unconventional tight reservoirs. Work is progressing to tap Canada’s shale gas
resource, pegged at around 900 trillion cubic feet (Tcf).
A number of companies are working to exploit thermogenic shale gas in western
Canada, largely in two areas. Some are targeting deeper thermogenic shales in
northern Alberta and British Columbia. Others are targeting hybrid plays in
southeastern Alberta.
The hot spot for thermogenic shale gas exploration right now is the Horn River Basin,
55 km northeast of Fort Nelson in northeastern B.C. Total land sales in the Horn
River region have exceeded $240 million in the last two years. Because producers are
still competing for land in the area, not much information has been released on the
play.
Northeastern B.C. is thought to have a shale gas resource of around 250 Tcf.
The hot spot for biogenic shale exploration in Canada is the Colorado Cretaceous
Group of shales stretching across central Alberta and Saskatchewan. Here, junior
explorers Stealth Ventures Ltd. and PanTerra Resource Corp. have been testing the
potential of over one million acres of exploration lands. PanTerra announced it has
acquired Stealth’s 50 per cent working interest in all of the PanTerra-operated, jointventure shale gas properties in Saskatchewan. Stealth is continuing to explore its
Alberta shale gas properties.
To date, Stealth has been drilling one well per section, successfully testing the
geological concept, testing different completion technologies, and earning land.
Preliminary analysis indicates higher density spacing of more than four wells per
section may ultimately be required to maximize recovery from these tight rock
formations. The company says that as the project progresses to the development
stage, better target identification and technology application could lead to increased
productivity and drainage per well.
Fracing
Fracing technology can be expected to play an increasingly critical role in the
Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin’s (WCSB’s) natural gas sector as
unconventional gas-particularly that from tight formations, coal bed methane (CBM),
and shales - accounts for an ever bigger share of the region’s natural gas production.
Already, unconventional gas accounts for a significant share of the WCSB’s total
daily production of about 16 Bcf/d.
The development of unconventional gas in the WCSB with the help of fracing
technology is becoming an increasingly pressing issue because, as PTAC notes,
conventional natural gas production from the region has already peaked. The
Canadian Society for Unconventional Gas (CSUG) anticipates that by 2025,
unconventional gas will account for 80 per cent of new drilling and 50 per cent of
total gas production.
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Dave Browne, technical manager for Trican Well Service Ltd., says, “Volumes can
vary quite a bit. Large frac jobs are becoming more common because reservoirs are of
poorer quality.”
Many less challenging reservoirs have been developed; the low-hanging fruit is
mostly picked. But, as Browne observes, it’s still about getting the wellbore to the
pay zone—despite the change between present and past conditions. “In the old days,
the natural permeability of the rock was so good that quite often you didn’t need to
frac hardly at all,” he says. “Now, we are going into shale. Before we were in
carbonate and sandstone with good permeability. Now, it’s poor quality sandstone
that’s the majority.”
Getting at the gas in shale and poor-quality sandstone is now possible, thanks to large
frac jobs. This can entail as many as 20 or more pump trucks used to push 200 tonnes
of sand into the formation. Large frac jobs can cost a million dollars, so quality,
reliable equipment that includes modern five-plunger or quintuplex pumps can be
critical to a successful operation.
Although Browne says that a million-dollar frac job means “you need the well to be
capable of producing a couple of million cubic feet a day,” the prize could make it
worthwhile. The frac could pay for itself in less than six months. “In Texas, with
some large fracs, they are getting 20 trillion cubic feet a day,” he says. 5
By 2010, North American natural gas demand will approach 30 Tcf per year. To meet
this demand, producers will have to increasingly turn to unconventional resources
such as shale gas. Shale gas is a large potential resource in the WCSB. The GTI
estimates conservatively that there is approximately 86 Tcf of shale gas contained in
the shales that make up the majority of the sedimentary package. Technological
advances in completions and well stimulation in the US is increasing recovery factors
and improving the economics of marginal shale gas fields.
1.1.2 The Fracturing (Fracing) Process
Canada has always been a leader in technological advancement of the energy
industry. As shale gas becomes a greater focus in Canada industry, new technologies
will no doubt be developed to meet the needs of the domestic industry. Experience
gained in the commercial development of tight gas sands in Canada will likely
contribute to the successful development of shale gas.
Gas shales are attracting an increasing amount of attention from Canadian exploration
companies and the trend is expected to increase. The hydrocarbon volume stored
within gas shales in Canada is huge. The experience with gas shales in the US has
proven the economic viability of the resource. Each basin and sedimentary unit in
Canada will have its own unique characteristics and challenges. The low permeability
5
CBM and tight gas push demand for high-tech fracing,
http://www.oilandgasinquirer.com/articles.asp?ID=518
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shale gas reservoirs in Canada will require innovative stimulation and completion
solutions. Canadian explorers can be expected to rise to the challenge in the very near
future. 6
With tight gas, the paths for the gas flow are very narrow making it difficult for the
gas to effectively flow through the reservoir for long distances.
Well stimulation (fracing) is required for ‘tight’ gas. Well stimulation through a
‘fracture treatment’ (what those in industry call a ‘frac’) opens up these paths so they
are wide enough to allow gas flow.
Often an oil or gas bearing formations may contain large quantities of oil or gas, but
have a poor flow rate due to low permeability, or from damage caused by clogging of
the formation during drilling. This is particularly true for tight sands, oil and gas
shales and coal-bed methane.
Hydraulic fracturing is a technique used to create fractures that extend from the well
bore into rock or coal formations. Typically, in order to create fractures a mixture of
water, proppants (sand or ceramic beads) and chemicals is pumped into the rock or
coal formation. These fractures allow the oil or gas to travel more easily from the
rock pores, where the oil or gas is trapped, to the production well. Think of it as a
honeycomb and you are trying to create connections between the holes in the comb so
the gas may find a passage through the otherwise impermeable rock.
Fracing technology involves pumping fluids under pressure underground in order to
fracture the formation by inducing cracks and thus improving permeability. It uses
two main components. One is a fluid, which, with the right viscosity and other
properties, carries the second component, typically sand, ceramic, or some other solid
that holds the newly induced cracks open. That second component is known as the
proppant.
Eventually, the formation will not be able to absorb the fluid as quickly as it is being
injected. At this point, the pressure created causes the formation to crack or fracture.
The fractures are held open by the proppants, and the oil or gas is then able to flow
through the fractures to the well.
Some of the fracturing fluids are pumped out of the well and into surface pits or tanks
during the process of extracting oil, gas and any produced water. These fracturing
fluids must be collected when bringing the well back into production. Here is where
large blow-back tanks are required to contain the accumulated refuse upon
reintegration of well production.
6
http://www.csug.ca/faqs.html#Na15
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1.1.3
Blow Back Tanks
Blow Back tanks are required to collect the aggregate left over from the process of
fracing wells. Blow back tanks are required every time that a well is subjected to the
process of fracing and then tanks are in use at each site for a few days to collect the
proppant and water.
With the large deposits of natural gas in the Newell Region and the constant need to
frac these gas wells flow-back tanks are in constant demand. In such great demand
that the region should be able to easily support a facility dedicated to the production
of such vessels.
Past Tank Pricing – Source: EOG Resources
A Wendy Grieve of EOG Resources was a solid lead on the past cost of the tanks.
Their business in Alberta had 50 tanks built at a cost of $550, 000, but she also said
that they had supplied the piping to make the pipe-run from each of the tanks to the
well heads. The figure of $11,000 as a price for each on the tanks was the most
reliable cost estimate at first.
However, EOG had supplied the fabricator with enough pipe to outfit the 50 tanks,
which would have to be factored into the total cost of tank production. Not counting
the pipe costs, the direct expenses in fabricating the tanks was between $6000 and
$7000.
Present and Future Tank Pricing – Source: Protech/Delta Oilfield Tanks and
Pinnacle Manufacturing
Recently a company called Protech/Delta Oilfield Tanks from Colorado built tanks
for Anadarko Petroleum in Alberta. They cost $19,900 per tank which they claim is a
very good price in today's market. The EOG prices were from 2 years ago.
A contact at Protech said the price of
steel 2 years ago was only about $0.24
a pound. Right now he said they bus
their steel from Cargill at a price of
$0.68 a pound and that in July 2008
the price of steel is expected to go to
at least $0.78 a pound and may go as
high as $0.84 a pound.
In fact, Cargill will only quote a price
on steel for 48 hours so Protech has
been stockpiling steel with Cargill and having to pay them stocking charges to hold
the steel to avoid the new higher prices coming along. Protech was also kind enough
to provide specs for the tanks. See Appendix 1.
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Contacts at Pinnacle Manufacturing in Alabama confirmed the Protech steel numbers.
Pinnacle had commented that the Protech tank prices seem to be very reasonable for
the type of blowback tanks that the are used in the Alberta market.
Other Pricing Information - KDS Tank Rentals
KDS Tank Rentals is attempting to sell the business which owns 50 blow back tanks
– the asking price is $2.8 million. The tanks are all the same – 20' long, 10' wide and
6' high. Each tank comes with 7 joints of line pipe, a tank riser, bean and a flag for
wind direction. The tanks all have skids on them and are easily moved with a bed
truck.
The tanks are currently working in the shallow gas field located near Cabri, SK. They
are rented 11 months out of the year and generate anywhere from $30 to $60 per tank,
per day. If they actually earn as much rental income as they claim, each tank might
generate income of $9,900 to $19,800 annually ($30 to $60/day for 330 days/year).
Flow-Back Tanks
In the southern US markets the term flow-back tank is used to describe a similar, but
much larger tank. These tanks are in the range of 500 barrels or 70 m3, almost twice
the size of the tanks that are used in western Canada (200-275 barrels or 30-40 m3).
These flow-back tanks would obviously be used on the much larger fracturing jobs
that are common in Texas and similar areas. It appears, from the website information,
that these tanks have their own wheels and are transported by hooking them to a
highway tractor.
The type of tanks that are used in Canada are much smaller and less elaborate than the
flow-back tanks, and are designed to be skidded or lifted onto a flatbed trailer to be
moved from site to site.
1.2 CURRENT SITUATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
1.2.1 Environmental Scan
The fact that natural gas is one of the cleanest, cheapest and most efficient sources of
energy makes it a necessary component of an environmentally friendly economy.
Alberta is home to a large natural gas resource base and accounts for just over 80 per
cent of the natural gas produced in Canada.
It is estimated that 97 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of recoverable, conventional natural gas
is still beneath Alberta. Alberta’s coal seams could contain as much as an additional
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500 Tcf. While it’s not yet known how much of this coalbed methane is economically
recoverable, Alberta’s natural gas supply will meet the needs of Albertans, Canadians
and North Americans for the foreseeable future. Another potential unconventional
gas source is gas in shale which is still in the very early stages of development in
Alberta.
Alberta Energy ensures Albertans continue to receive the full value from their gas
resource by promoting and encouraging responsible exploration and development of
Alberta’s natural gas resources, and calculating and collecting gas royalties. – AB
Dept. of Energy
1.2.2 Political Environment
It is of little surprise that the Government of Alberta in general is supportive of the oil
and gas industry. But one of the reasons that economic development projects such as
this are even more attractive is that natural gas is playing an increasingly prominent
role in Alberta’s energy sector
.
Although oil prices grab the headlines, Alberta now receives more royalty from
natural gas. Historically, oil and gas royalty payments were about equal, if not more
for oil. In 2004-05 natural gas royalties accounted for 76 per cent of royalty revenues
for Albertans. As a result, changes in gas prices have a more dramatic effect on
government revenues than changes in oil prices. Of course, both royalties increase
when both oil and gas prices trend upward.7
1.2.3 Economic Environment
Canadian Production
Canada is the third largest producer of natural gas and the ninth largest producer of
crude oil in the world. Two thirds of Canada’s initial conventional hydrocarbon
resources are estimated to be onshore Canada’s National Energy Board estimates the
total initial resources include 430 billion cubic meters of conventional oil and 17.2
trillion cubic meters of natural gas.
In 2004 Canadian production of natural gas amounted to 485 million cubic meters per
day while the country exported another 273 million cubic meters per day. Canada's
remaining resources of natural gas are estimated by the National Energy Board to be
10.5 trillion cubic meters including developed and prospective resources.
Alberta Production
Natural gas is the largest single source of resource development revenue for
Albertans, accounting for more than $28.2 billion in royalties paid to the Government
7
Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers - http://www.capp.ca
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of Alberta from fiscal 2000/2001 to fiscal 2004/2005. This total represents about 70
per cent of all provincial revenue from non-renewable resources over that period.
Natural gas is also responsible for a significant portion of the oil and gas industry’s
investment in Alberta, totaling over $90 billion from 2000 to 2004.
In addition to heating homes and businesses, over 60 per cent of the natural gas
consumed in Alberta is used by the industrial sector. Natural gas is an important raw
material for the province’s oil sands and electric power generation industries, which
have expanded in recent years as the result of significant investment based on
availability of the resource in Alberta. 8
There is also potential for growth into the U.S. sector as Colorado is home to a large
untapped shale oil and gas reserve that has yet to be extracted. This along with the
Alberta reserves will be another strategic market just waiting to be explored.
Figure 1 illustrates the significant number of well completions in Canada, in
particularly Alberta, in recent years.
Figure 1: Well Completions - Annual Breakdown by Province
Figure 1: Well Completions - Annual Breakdown by Province
Source - Daily Oil Bulletin
Alberta
Oil
Gas
Dry
Servicing
Saskatchewan
Oil
Gas
Dry
Servicing
BC
Oil
Gas
Dry
Servicing
Manitoba
Oil
Gas
Dry
Servicing
8
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
290
10,679
792
82
3,034
12,670
884
99
2,771
12,711
1,180
249
2,613
12,754
1,081
200
2,751
11,067
1,031
119
2,358
6,924
1,102
161
2,806
9,165
1,452
134
2,182
1,217
68
73
2,038
1,518
107
61
1,766
1,714
146
65
1,616
1,887
93
44
1,558
2,254
130
64
1,356
1,718
121
74
1,716
1,366
181
71
66
725
46
1
59
1,101
64
7
40
932
76
16
66
972
88
18
88
618
60
9
45
429
55
20
84
640
110
23
281
29
3
313
468
17
0
485
245
9
10
5
122
0
5
0
76
0
9
9
70
0
8
10
80
0
15
21
Alberta Department of Energy -
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Northern Can.
Oil
Gas
Dry
Servicing
Western Can.
Oil
Gas
Dry
Servicing
East Coast
Oil
Gas
Dry
Servicing
Total
3
0
6
0
0
4
0
0
0
2
2
0
1
30
3
0
0
5
3
0
3
2
3
0
3
6
1
1
5,429
12,621
935
159
5,599
15,289
1,072
167
4,822
15,359
1,414
330
4,418
15,616
1,270
262
4,473
13,944
1,233
201
3,832
9,073
1,289
265
4,689
11,177
1,759
308
11
96
8
7
19,272
10
24
4
2
22,171
13
44
9
8
21,999
20
58
12
15
21,671
15
66
16
9
19,957
24
48
26
6
14,571
13
23
9
5
17,983
1.2.4 Social Environment
Oil and gas activity continues to form a strong element of the Brooks’ economy.
Ongoing drilling and exploration programs mean that these and other companies are
going to be in Brooks and the region for a long time.
The City of Brooks is one of fastest growing communities in Alberta boasting a
population of about 12,500. Brooks is steadily growing with residential and
commercial development and a recently completed a state of the art Aquatic Center, a
wide range of restaurants, grocery and retail outlets. The city is also awaiting the
opening of a new Recreation Center that is currently under construction.
Brooks is the largest city in the County of Newell and is located 186 km southeast of
Calgary adjacent to the Trans-Canada Highway within the County of Newell. Brooks
is only a short distance of 104km from Medicine Hat.
The County of Newell’s agricultural industry is a significant contributor to the local
and regional economy. Tyson Foods (Lakeside Packers) is the largest employer in the
agricultural sector, and community, employing 2,500 workers.
Of the 1.5 million acres in the County, there are 282,000 acres that are served by a
state-of-the-art pipe and canal irrigation system with water diverted from the Bassano
Dam on the Bow River. An additional 165,000 acres are cultivated dryland.
Ranching is very strong within the County of Newell. With 930,000 acres of native
pasture, the County is home to a very strong and viable cattle ranching industry. The
people who call the County of Newell home are one of the strongest resources within
the County.
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Population
•
•
Brooks has experienced significant growth from 1996 to 2005; and
Brooks has become a multi-cultural community with many various religions and
cultures including an immigrant population of 1,059.
The 2001 census indicated that there were 7,137 citizens within the County of Newell
and 2,365 dwellings. Since the 1996 census, the County of Newell has grown at a rate
of 11.2% almost a full percentage point above the Provincial growth rate of 10.3%.
Bassano
Brooks
Duchess
Rosemary
Tilley
County of Newell
Total Population
Population 2001
1,320
11,604
836
366
422
7,137
21,685
Population 2006
1,345
12,498
978
388
381
6,872
22,462
The agricultural economy remains a vital element of the Brooks’ economy. Brooks is
located within an area containing 282,000 irrigated farmland acres, 600,000 acres of
cultivated dry land farming and another 600,000 acres of native and improved
rangeland in the region. The availability of ample water from irrigation projects has
assisted the agricultural economy tremendously. In addition, a large range of
businesses that offer goods and services to the agricultural sector are also present in
Brooks and the surrounding area, including supplies of irrigation equipment and
machinery.
Brooks operates as the retail and service sector for the community as well as the
surrounding region. The growth in population has been paralleled by a growth in the
retail and service sector, and new businesses are opening constantly as opportunities
arise. As a regional service center, Brooks has a wide range of urban amenities and
services, such as retail services, accommodations and eateries, major leisure center,
representation from all five major banks and professional, technical and financial
services. Because Brooks operates as a regional service center, retail and other service
activities are a vital source of employment locally.
1.2.5 Technology
A large number of companies in Brooks are involved in the oil and gas service
industries, providing goods and services to the exploration side of the industry, and
also to the production and delivery side of the business, in terms of maintenance and
upgrading of existing wells and pipelines. There are approximately two hundred
businesses in the Brooks area that are involved in the oil and gas industry in one form
or another.
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Agriculture Research
The County of Newell is home to a state-of-the-art agriculture research facility. The
Crop Diversification Centre is operated by the Province of Alberta. The CDC has
been instrumental in research that has developed several strains of crops for
production in all areas of the Province and the whole of Canada. The CDC currently
operates a full plant genetics laboratory conducting research into new varieties of
crops that either are, or potentially could be, grown in the County of Newell No. 4.
The CDC conducts research into such crops as sunflower seeds, fruits, especially
apples, corn, potatoes and many other crops grown in the County of Newell.
1.2.6 Labour Relations
Because of the prosperous economic situation in Alberta in general and the Brooks
area in particular, there is an ongoing labour shortage. This is especially true for
several of the skilled trades including welders. This will create a challenge which any
proposed new tank manufacturing business will have to develop strategies to mitigate.
This may include recruiting skilled workers from other provinces or other countries.
In the last year the Government of Alberta has become very proactive in helping
companies recruiting foreign labour. They have many target programs and
information sources for employers looking to recruit from abroad. (See
http://www.alberta-canada.com/immigration/employers/index.html)
1.3 PROJECT PARTNERS
There are numerous small to medium sized business operating in the Alberta’s energy
sector. While it is possible that a larger company might take an interest in this project, it
is more likely that a small to medium sized operator would start this venture. One of the
reasons that this is an attractive business is the relatively small capitalization that a blowback tank production facility would require.
There are several small to medium sized businesses in the Unites States that could set up
operations in the County of Newell, seeing as it has proximity to such a large portion of
the blow back tank market.
It is assumed that a single business or owner would move forward on this project rather
than a partnership. However, the County of Newell has demonstrated by sponsoring this
business case development that they would be willing to provide assistance to an owner.
In addition, the Alberta Department of Energy and various economic development
organizations could be of assistance as well.
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2. OPERATION ANALYSIS
2.1 LOCATION
The Blow-Back tank production facility should be placed within or near the industrial
sector in the County of Newell in order to take advantage of the space and close
proximity of ancillary services. The existence of wide paved roads would be an added
benefit as the need to move large tanks and the trucks associated with the tank hauling
could make use of smooth transportation avenues.
The County of Newell has the added benefit of being located astride the main artery of
transportation in Canada, namely Highway #1. In addition the County of Newell has land
designated and zoned as heavy industrial, an ideal location for a the physical plant.
2.2 PLANT
A large parcel of land within the County of Newell would be required for the tank facility
as storage of materials needed for production as well as an accumulation area for the
finished blow-back tanks. The tanks do not require inside storage so only a large outdoor
area needed for the tank farm. Please refer to Section 5.1 for more discussion regarding
the construction of a plant.
2.3 PROCESS
The manufacturing process is expected to be fairly straightforward including primarily
metal bending, shaping and welding. The technology in generally not very sophisticated
and does not appear to be protected by patents.
2.4 TRANSPORTATION
The transportation of the finished tanks seems to be well suited to flatbed trailers with no
special equipment or permits needed. The tanks are designed to be skidded or lifted onto
and off of flatbed trailers.
The construction of trailers themselves could be an offshoot business for the plant.
Trailers will be needed regardless to transport a fleet of at least 50 rental units.
2.5 PERSONNEL
The manufacturing of these tanks will require a number of specialized trades people
including metalworkers and welders. As noted earlier, it is expected to be challenging to
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for a new business to attract these types of skilled workers. Strategies will need to be
developed and well executed to recruit these workers from other provinces or other
countries.
2.6 MANAGEMENT
It is not expected to be difficult to attract the type of management expertise required to
operate this type of business. The senior management team will need to be familiar with
the metal fabrication industry and should have a good working knowledge of the oil and
gas service sector.
Hiring someone with solid connections to the major oil exploration companies would be
very beneficial (as it is these companies that buy or lease the blow bank tanks for the
fracing jobs).
2.7 BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
It is not expected to be difficult to attract the type of business administration skills that
will be required to operate this type of business. Brooks has many small and medium
sized businesses and the business support infrastructure that these types of companies
need (accountants, lawyers, etc.)
2.8 REGULATORY
It is does not appear that there are significant regulatory challenges to establishing this
type of business in the Brooks area. The practices that are used at the well sites are
controlled by regulations and by good business practices. However, there seems to be
minimal regulations regarding the construction, movement and use of the tanks
themselves.
It should be noted that the County of Newell is supporting the development of this
business and therefore will be interested in cooperating in any way possible with
potential investors. And the Government of Alberta is of course very supportive of new
business initiatives in the oil and gas sector.
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3. MARKETING ANALYSIS
3.1 MARKET RESEARCH
Market research was conducted to determine the nature of the business environment in
which this proposed blow back tank manufacturing business would operate. It was
challenging to obtain good market research information because the major gas
exploration and servicing companies are reluctant to provide information (even when we
tried to assure them that we were interested in attracting a new supplier and that this
would likely benefit them)
This research confirmed that the fracing industry is in a steady growth phase as more and
more gas wells are being drilled into “tight” gas beds. These beds require more wells
drilled per square mile and more use of fracing services in order to keep the flow rates at
acceptable levels than did the conventional wells that were drilled in the past. Each well
that is fractured needs to have a blow back tank on site for several days during and after
the frac is done. Thus, it seems likely that there will be an ongoing market demand for
more tanks each year for the foreseeable future.
With 14,500 new wells being drilled in 2008 and similar numbers expected in future
years, there is no reason to expect that the demand for blow back tanks will decrease in
the foreseeable future.
3.2 MARKETING STRATEGY
It seems that an appropriate marketing strategy would be to focus marketing and sales
efforts directly on the companies that supply these tanks to the major companies such as
EnCana, etc. Some major companies prefer to rent the tanks rather than to own them, but
further research will be needed to confirm specifically which companies those are.
Alternatively, the tank manufacturing company might choose to set up its own tank rental
subsidiary business. It would have to be careful to do this in a way that would no unduly
jeopardize its relationship with the other rental companies (they may feel that the tank
manufacturing company is, on the one hand, supplying them with tanks and, on the other
hand, is going into competition with them for rental customers).
In all likelihood, forming a company that is focused on tank manufacturing but has a
rental decision makes the most sense. The manufacturing ability will lead to other
opportunities in the oil and gas sector and perhaps beyond, but the repeatable source of
income that a rental arm provides is very attractive also.
3.2.1 Target Market
The primary target market for this proposed new tank manufacturing business will be
in the four western Canadian provinces. It will be the companies that rent the tanks to
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The major gas producing companies are expected to be the primary customers for the
proposed new business.
A potential second target market would be the major gas producers themselves in the
same four western provinces (if these companies would see value in purchasing the
tanks, rather then renting them).
Lastly, the tank manufacturing company will have to explore the North Western
Unites States as a market. The push to drill for coal bed methane in states such as
Colorado and Montana makes a perfect market for blow back tanks.
3.2.2 Sustainable Competitive Advantage
In order to gain a sustainable competitive it is expected that this proposed company
will need to identify a positioning strategy that it can effectively execute in order to
become one of the:
•
Low-cost producers of blow back tanks by achieving significant economies of
scale in the manufacturing and marketing of tanks;
•
Innovation leaders in the industry by developing features that add customer value
without adding a lot more production costs (i.e. increase profitability) and that
others don’t offer and can’t easily copy; or
•
A high-service renter of tanks to the gas producers (if the gas producers are
willing to pay a premium for better service).
•
Service and reliability are keystones to any business and are of particular import
in the ultra competitive world of the energy sector.
3.3 MARKETING PLAN
Ancillary Profit Centers
The blow back tank production facility could also serve as a welding shop and a metal
fabrication business. The shop could even look into the possibility of expanding their
business to include production of service rigs which only requires the services of a
fabrication shop coupled with the purchasing of the subsequent motors needed to run the
rig.
The proprietor could also look into the added benefits of not selling the blow-back tanks
but rather renting them out to the energy sector. By renting the tanks the proprietor can
ensure steady cash flow from tank rentals, and could entertain the possibility of buying
the large vehicles required to transport the tanks thereby giving the owner another means
to supplement and grow his investment.
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4. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
4.1 ESTIMATE CAPITAL COSTS
It is expected that the capital investment required to establish a tank manufacturing
business could be moderate – perhaps in the range of $2 million. The manufacturing
business would be expected to have ongoing inventories in the $200,000 range. To
operate the ancillary tank rental business, it will require the investment of approximately
$600,000 (50 tanks at direct costs of $12,000 per tank) in rental tank inventories. It is
expected that it should be possible to finance at least 50% of the capital costs plus
inventory costs, reducing the equity requirement to the $1.4 million range (50% of $2.8
million).
A Metal Fabrication contact at Alberta Investment and Industry Development Branch had
thought that a cost of between $100-$150 ft² is appropriate, but he was not sure so he
referred us to a local builder. This contactor noted that a great deal of factors that go into
building such a facility so he estimates $200-$225 ft² as more appropriate cost. And all
our contacts agreed that 10,000 ft2 is a pretty common size for such a facility.9
Of course the details such as over head cranes, height of structure, closeness of utilities
etc. could all impact the price of such a structure. The contactor indicated that the
structures they build are modular or pre-built which can lower costs. The government
contact also noted that a few local businessmen have also bought an already erected
building and moving it to site to cut down on costs.
4.2 ESTIMATED OPERATING REVENUES & EXPENSES
This case utilizes the Statistics Canada Small Business Profiles to create financial
projections for the business model. More specifically we use figures from the North
American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) # 33242 which is Metal Tank
(Heavy Gauge) Manufacturing. It is narrowed down to the Alberta market, which
contained 26 related manufactures in 2006.
The Small Business Profiles generate a list of ratios based on the revenue range of the
business. So determining the projected demand and therefore revenue is vital to the
integrity of the estimations.
4.21 Assessing Demand
Estimating potential revenues for a start up business is always difficult. This is
especially difficult in an industry where the primary driver (oil wells drilled) can vary
dramatically based on myriad of factors.
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9
Director, Metal Fabrication, Alberta Employment, Immigration and Industry, Investment and
Industry Development Branch and Clark Builders Ltd, Calgary AB
We have chosen to develop a model using our ground level knowledge from people
and companies in the Alberta oil field. This will be based on past and projected well
starts, but there is another pertinent variable that is much more difficult to measure –
well re-completions.
A re-completion or refinishing is when a well that has died off and then had a frac on
it to get it flowing again (in the same formation). Or they can also be used when a
deep gas well has stopped producing and they seal that casing off down hole, then
come further up into a new formation and frac again to get shallow gas.
We will use numbers based on estimations of new wells drilled and existing wells
being refinished for sweet gas (natural gas).
4.211 County of Newell Demand
In the County of Newell there is approximately 15,000 gas wells. An oil field
company in the County of Newell that does down-hole testing said that right now he
knows of around 1,200 wells being slated to be drilled in the area this year. But they
are fairly confident that the final number will be closer to 2,000 before the drilling
season is done.
For every well being drilled there is at least 1 tank on site; but usually 2 are more
common because of the size of the fracs. But we cannot assume there will be demand
for 4,000 tanks (2 x 2,000) because the tanks are moved from site to site.
From our contacts in the field, a rule of thumb in the industry is go by a tenth, so if a
company is drilling around 200 wells they will rent about 20 tanks and move them
around as they punch the holes.
So this year alone in the Newell region they would need 200 tanks at a minimum. But
we will estimate the number higher because we are not counting well re-completions
being done to non-producing wells. So it was suggested by people in the fields that
we move the ratio from 1/10 to 1/7. We would estimate the number of tanks needed at
285 for the County of Newell.
4.212 Alberta Demand
A plant in the County of Newel region could of course supply tanks to all of Alberta
and beyond. So it best is to use the data from the Canadian Association of Oil-well
Drilling Contractors website on wells punched.
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Figure 2: Alberta Gas Well Completions - Daily Oil Bulletin
Wells
2007
10,679
2006
12,670
2005
12,711
2004
12,754
2003
11,067
2002
6,924
2001
9,165
This yields an average of 11,976 gas wells drilled in the province of Alberta over the
last 5 years.
So using the 1/7 ratio for wells completed over the last 5 years it is estimated that at
least 1,711 tanks are in use in the Province of Alberta.
4.213 Saskatchewan Demand
Here is the Canadian Association of Oil-well Drilling Contractors well completions
data:
Figure 3: Saskatchewan Gas Well Completions - Daily Oil Bulletin
Wells
2007
1,217
2006
1,518
2005
1,714
2004
1,887
2003
2,254
2002
1,718
2001
1,366
This yields an average of 1,667 gas wells drilled in the province of Saskatchewan
over the last 5 years.
So using the 1/7 ratio for wells completed over the last 5 years it is estimated that 238
tanks are in use in the Province of Saskatchewan.
4.214 U.S. Demand
It is also prudent to consider the immediate geographic market for a Blow Back Tank
production facility in the County of Newell, so we must also examine northern US
natural gas wells
We were unable to locate specific well starts for the last few years, but we did find
the number of recent gas producing wells from the Energy Information
Administration:
Figure 4: US Producing Gas Wells - US Energy Information Administration
U.S.
Colorado
Montana
Utah
Wyoming
2001
373,304
22,117
4,331
4,601
13,978
2002
387,772
23,554
4,544
3,005
15,608
2003
393,327
18,774
4,539
3,220
18,154
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406,147
16,718
4,971
3,657
20,244
2005
425,887
22,691
5,751
4,092
23,734
2006
448,641
20,568
6,578
4,506
25,052
22
There is a general trend upwards, with over 20,000 new wells in the US from 2005 to
2006. And of course drillers punch a lot more wells than actually end up in
production.
Included are statistics from several states close to Alberta, with the understanding that
there will be strong competition for gas field services further south from Texas.
It is difficult to say what the exact number of blowback tanks that are used in the
North West US, but with coal bed methane extraction which often requires fracing,
the number is significant.
Approximately 7.5 percent of the total natural gas production in the United States is
comprised of coal bed methane. At least 12,000 coal bed methane wells have already
been drilled in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming and Montana, and the Bureau of
Land Management is expecting 51,000 coal bed methane wells to be drilled in the
entire basin by 2010. For comparison, there are only about 1 million operating oil and
gas wells in the entire United States.10
4.215 Rental Revenues
Tank rental companies are typically very similar in pricing. They charge $1.00
per cubic meter of tank space, so a 35 cubic meter tank would cost $35 per day.
Monthly rate is just calculated with the daily rate in mind (30days x $35 = $1,050)
unless a customer were to rent multiple tanks. As the number of tanks increase the
price per unit drops, so if you were to rent upwards of 20 tanks over a month then the
price could come down as low as $800.00 per tank monthly.
4.216 Existing Supply
We know that there is insufficient supply in the market, hence the development of
this business case. Determining the exact number of tanks in use today is very
difficult. The best estimation we could get is 1,000-1,500 from major suppliers, and
200-400 from smaller operations.
Of course this does not take into account what shape the tanks are in, and how many
are slated for replacement. Along with increasing fracing operations, the age and
condition of the existing tanks supply is likely a contributing factor to the shortage.
4.217 Overall Trends
Manufacturing shipments for this industry increased at an average compound annual
rate of 7.5% per year from 1994 to 2003.
10
Western Organization of Resource Councils -http://www.worc.org/issues/art_issues/energy_ltrtoepa.html
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Manufacturing value-added for the Metal Tank (Heavy Gauge) Manufacturing
industry increased from $216.2 million in 1994 to $375.6 million in 2003, or at
approximately an annual compound growth rate of 6.25%. Manufacturing valueadded is defined as the value of shipments plus net change in the inventory of goods
in process and finished goods, less the costs of materials and supplies and of the fuel
and electricity used.
4.22 Revenue Estimation
Sales:
After considering all the aforementioned calculations, and talking
to companies on the ground, we estimate that there is a demand for approximately
250 blowback tanks per year in the Alberta, Saskatchewan and North-West US
region.
We will estimate that a local company could capture half of this market and then
grow it over time. Estimates are 100 tanks the first year, 125 the second year, and 150
the third year.
The type of tank in use is priced at approximately $19,000 per unit. Due to escalating
steel prices we will adjust our prices up $3,000 per tank each year. Due to the
volatility of steel prices and drilling each year it is only prudent do a three year
projection.
Rental:
Renting the tanks would be a likely source of revenue, since many
customers will not want to purchase tanks. During Year 1, the business is expected to
put tanks into its rental fleet as they are built and to have the equivalent of 50 tanks
for half the season (the equivalent of 25 tanks for the full year).The tanks are
expected to rent for $900 per month for 10 months and would be expected to gross
$9,000 per tank per year in Year 1, increasing to $10,400 in Year 2 and $11,800 in
Year 3 (similar to the projected percentage increases in tank selling prices). That
would net $225,000 yearly rental revenue in Year 1 (with the equivalent of just 25
tanks in service), $520,000 in Year 2 (50 tanks) and $590,000 in Year 3.
Repair:
The repair revenue was difficult to estimate, especially in the first
years of operations. After year 1 we will include a $50,000 estimate for the repair and
modification of tanks sold, doubling that figure in year 3.
Other Sales:
It will be prudent to augment the business with other oilfield and
tank building services. This is an unexplored market at this point, but it is highly
evident that any company able to produce oil field equipment will find alternate
sources of revenue in Alberta. Just the welding expertise that will be requires will
help the company work into other revenue streams. So we will include a revenue
projection for ‘other services’ starting in the second year of operations. There is a
$100,000 estimate for year 2, that number doubling in year 3.
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4.23 Financial Projections
Figure 2 Estimates Revenue Expenses and Profit
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
$2,125,000
$3,420,000
$4,640,000
$2,125,000
$3,270,000
$4,340,000
$0
$150,000
$300,000
$1,120,000
$2,053,350
$2,325,920
$480,000
$510,350
$545,920
$1,440,000
$1,553,000
$1,785,000
$0
$800,000
$810,000
$800,000
$810,000
$815,000
$1,005,000
$1,366,650
$2,314,080
Operating expenses (indirect expenses)
$982,300
$1,172,850
$1,482,900
Labour and commissions
$360,000
$412,050
$553,500
Amortization and depletion
$170,000
$170,000
$170,000
$9,400
$13,400
$18,000
Utilities and telephone/telecommunication
$35,000
$43,550
$58,500
Rent
$61,100
$87,100
$117,000
$105,400
$108,400
$111,400
Professional and business fees
$61,100
$87,100
$117,000
Advertising and promotion
$20,000
$26,800
$36,000
$8,000
$10,050
$13,500
$16,000
$20,100
$27,000
$136,300
$194,300
$261,000
Total expenses
$2,082,300
$3,206,200
$3,788,820
Net profit/loss
$22,700
$193,800
$831,180
Total revenue
Sales of goods and services (Tank Sales and Rentals)
All other revenues (Service and Other Manufacturing)
Cost of sales (direct expenses)
Wages and benefits
Purchases, materials and sub-contracts
Opening Inventory
Closing inventory
Gross Margin (total revenue minus cost of sales)
Repairs and maintenance
Interest and bank charges
Delivery, shipping and warehouse expenses
Insurance
Other expenses
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Figure3 Balance Sheet from Statistics Canada Small Business profiles
Debt to equity ratio
1.2
Revenue to equity ratio
3.4
Net profit to equity (%)
27.5
Net fixed assets to equity (%)
24.0
Gross margin (%)
36.5
Return on total assets (%)
12.8
4.3 ESTIMATED ROI
If this business could be established with a capital investment of $2.8 million and equity
investment of $1.4 million as shown in Section 4.1 and if it could generate annual gross
margins (gross income minus direct costs) in Year 3 in the range of $2.3 million, it could
potentially achieve net income before tax in the range of $0.85 million (gross margin of
$2.31 million minus estimated indirect costs of $1.46 million). This level of Gross
margin is estimated at 49.9% of sales (well above the 36.5% industry average).
That would achieve an estimated ROI of 51% on equity of $1.4 million and an estimated
return of 30.4% on total assets of $2.8 million. Both of these values are higher than the
Statistics Canada Small Business Averages shown on the previous page of 27.5% (net
profit/equity) and 12.8% (return on total assets).
4.4 BREAK EVEN ANALYSIS
The level of revenue required to cover fixed costs (indirect costs) would be fairly high
because of the capital intensive nature of this type of business, perhaps in the range
shown below.
For Year 3:
The estimated fixed (indirect) costs including administrative and non-manufacturing
costs, interest on long-term debt and depreciation
~$1.5 million
Estimated contribution margin
~49.9%
Revenue required to cover estimated fixed costs
~$3.0 million
or 65% of the estimated $4.6 total revenue.
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5. CONCLUSION
After a significant six month research effort, we have concluded that the County of
Newell could support the development of a heavy gauge tank manufacturing facility
focusing on blow back tank production. The development of such a plant would be
recommended primarily for the following reasons:
•
There is a ground-level need for more blowback tanks being communicated by
companies in the oil and gas sector in the County of Newell, in Alberta, and
beyond.
•
Fracing technology can be expected to play an increasingly critical role in the
Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin’s natural gas sector as unconventional gasparticularly that from tight formations, coal bed methane, and shales accounts for
an ever bigger share of the region’s natural gas production.
•
Local government is very supportive of this type of project. They will cooperate
with investors in any way possible to move the construction of such a plant
forward including assistance with regulatory issues, human resources, locating
financing, etc.
•
With over 3,000 gas wells located in the County of Newell, a base market would
be right on the manufacture’s doorstep. There are over 10,000 new completions in
Alberta each year, and many recompilations done all over the province. In
addition, drilling is occurring at an increasing rate in BC, Saskatchewan and the
North West United States.
• There is significant potential for additional manufacturing businesses to spring
from a core tank manufacturing facility. There are billions of dollars invested
annually in the oil and gas industry in Alberta, and innovative entrepreneurs that
can manufacture products for the industry always have a place.
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