2007
Retail Market Analysis
Victor Valley, California
Victor Valley Economic Development Authority
18374 Phantom Street, Victorville, CA 92394
Tel: (800) 747-5840 / Email: INFO@VICTORVALLEYCA.COM
Retail Market
Victor Valley Retail Opportunities
„
A variety of retail opportunities exist in Victor Valley based on a retail leakage
analysis, results of a local community survey, and insights from community
demographics and socio-economic population data.
GENERAL MERCHANDISE
CONVENIENCE GOODS
•
Apparel
•
Hardware
•
Books
•
Sporting Goods
•
Computers / Electronics
•
•
Garden Center
Building Supplies / Home
Improvement
•
Home Decor
•
Specialty Grocery, health-oriented
•
Pharmacy
SERVICES
ENTERTAINMENT
•
Pack & Mail
•
Restaurants (sit-down, quality chains)
•
Dry Cleaning
•
Movie theaters
•
Exercise / Gym
•
YMCA
•
Banking
•
•
Health Care
All types of entertainment and
recreation
Sources: 2005 Community Survey, ESRI, Marketek, Inc. 2007
Victor Valley, CA — 2007
Page 1
Retail Market
Opportunities Exist Based on Current Demand
„
Based on household expenditures in the retail trade area, over 400,000 additional
square feet of retail space could be supported in the Victor Valley today. Retail
developments currently under construction will absorb some of this demand.
„
Without a selection and choice of goods, residents will make their purchases out of
the area; a fact that is supported by residents’ comments in a 2005 survey.
„
Potential for retail sales will continue to expand with Victor Valley’s growing market
population, the increasing number of households and rising household incomes.
RETAIL SECTOR
SUPPORTABLE
RETAIL (SF)
Full-service Restaurants
162,593
Clothing
148,707
Drinking Places
44,610
Electronics & Appliances
46,280
Specialty Foods
29,495
Office Supplies, Stationery, Gifts
20,842
Shoes
10,526
Florists
7,446
Beer, Wine, Liquor
4,925
Total
475,423
Source: ESRI BIS, Marketek, Inc. 2007
Victor Valley, CA — 2007
Page 2
Retail Market
Growth Will Continue to Keep Retail Demand Strong
„
To gauge near-term growth in retail sales, calculations were made of the additional
retail sales that could be supported over the next five years, based on estimated
population and income increases for the Victor Valley.
„
In the year 2012, $394.4 million in additional retail, restaurant and entertainment
sales will be supportable in the Victor Valley market area based upon spending by
the resident population. These sales equate to 1.61 million square feet of
development.
„
The table below depicts new potential sales and supportable square feet in 2012 for
those general merchandise/service categories which represent most retail goods that
would be found in neighborhoods and shopping centers.
CATEGORY
Apparel
Home Furnishings
HOUSEHOLD
EXPENDITURE
Grocery
Health and Personal Care
Restaurants
POTENTIAL
SUPPORTABLE
SPACE (SF)
$1,887
$45,982,416
220,012
$1,313
$31,995,184
160,780
$989
$24,099,952
172,143
$1,769
$43,106,992
199,569
$5,085
$123,911,280
317,721
$1,298
$31,629,644
86,657
$2,992
$72,909,056
277,221
$357
$8,699,376
96,660
$497
$12,110,896
80,205
$394,444,816
1,610,966
Home Improvement
Misc. Specialty Retail
POTENTIAL
SALES
Entertainment
Personal Services
Total Potential
Source: ESRI, ULI, Marketek, Inc. 2007
Victor Valley, CA — 2007
Page 3
Retail Market
Development at All-Time High
„
Residential and commercial building activity in Victor Valley has been consistently
strong. (Source: City Building Departments Adelanto, Apple Valley, Hesperia,
Victorville)
Figure 1 - Victor Valley Residential & Commercial Building Permits
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Potential sales volume in
Victor Valley over the next
five years is estimated to be
$394.4 million
Victor Valley, CA — 2007
Page 4
Retail Market
Victor Valley Retail Trade Area
„
Demographics presented throughout this document reflect the Victor Valley market
area as depicted on the trade area map on the following page.
„
For the purposes of this analysis, the Victor Valley Trade Area — the area from which
most Victor Valley businesses draw shoppers and where most Victor Valley area
shoppers carry out day-to-day business transactions — is based upon the
transportation systems, nearby retail competition, the Daily Press Newspaper
circulation, Victor Valley Community College student population, the real estate
market and other business activity.
„
Sources for the following data include: U.S. Consumer Expenditure Surveys, Bureau
of Labor Statistics, ESRI forecasts for 2007 and 2012, survey of Victor Valley
residents.
AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC
LOCATION
2005
2007
I-15 & Bear Valley Road
75,000
95,000
I-15 & Highway 18
55,000
59,000
Highway 18 & Highway 395 (Palmdale Rd)
15,000
15,600
Highway 18 & Navajo Road (Town Center)
33,000
33,000
Apple Valley Road & Bear Valley Road
25,000
25,000
Source: MPSI Systems Inc., 2005 and 2007
Victor Valley, CA — 2007
Page 5
Retail Market
Figure 2 - Victor Valley Retail Trade Area
Victor Valley, CA — 2007
Page 6
Retail Market
Retail Trade Area Characteristics
„
The forecast for population and household growth in Victor Valley continues to
increase.
„
Contrary to the national trend of declining household size, Victor Valley is
experiencing growth in the number of persons per household. Today’s 3.17 persons
per household are expected to increase 3.20 persons per household by 2012. 2007
comparisons for California’s average is 2.92 persons per household and the U.S.
average is 2.59 persons per household.
Figure 3 - Average Annual Population and Household Growth, 2012 Forecast
5.00%
Population
Households
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
Victor Valley
Bakersfield
Pasadena
Rancho
Cucamonga
Reno-Sparks
Riverside
Figure 4 – Victor Valley’s Estimated Population and Households.
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2000
Victor Valley, CA — 2007
2007
2012 est
Page 7
Retail Market
Median Age
„
The median age of the Victor Valley market area (33.9 years) compares well with the
state as a whole (34.2 years) and the U.S. (36.7 years).
„
The total Victor Valley market area population is 353,278.
Figure 5 - Age Distribution of Victor Valley Market Area, 2007
Youth (0-19 Yrs)
112,646
32%
Prime Consumers
(20-54 yrs)
159,929
46%
Seniors (55+)
75,097
22%
Figure 6 – Median Age of Victor Valley Market Area and Selected Cities, 2007
40
33.9
35.4
30.6
36.9
32.8
29.5
30
20
10
0
Victor Valley
Victor Valley, CA — 2007
Bakersfield
Pasadena
Rancho
Cucamonga
Reno-Sparks
Riverside
Page 8
Retail Market
Income
„
There are pockets of wealth in the Victor Valley trade area; 13.7 percent of
households earn in excess of $100,000 a year.
Figure 7 - Median Household Income for Victor Valley and Selected Cities, 2007
$77,825
$80,000
$70,000
$60,000
$59,566
$58,775
$52,949
$48,655
$44,072
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
Victor Valley
Bakersfield
Pasadena
Rancho
Cucamonga
Reno-Sparks
Riverside
Figure 8 – Distribution of Household Income in Victor Valley, 2007
over $100,000
14%
up to $24,999
25%
$50-$99,000
34%
$25-$49,999
27%
Victor Valley, CA — 2007
Page 9
Retail Market
Housing
„
The majority of Victor Valley households already own their home; this figure is
gradually increasing over time and is expected to reach nearly 67 percent by 2012.
„
Victor Valley has a higher proportion of owner-occupied housing units than California
(55%) and the U.S. (61.3%).
Figure 9 - Victor Valley Household Units, 2007
Owner-occupied
66%
Renter-occupied
25%
Vacancies
9%
“Certainly, the long term health of the
Inland Empire’s residential markets is
secure. Every forecast of Southern
California’s population growth is bullish.”
John E. Husing, Ph.D.
Inland Empire Quarterly Economic Report
July 2007
Victor Valley, CA — 2007
Page 10
Retail Market
Spending – Resident Population
„
Sources of the following spending statistics are U.S. Consumer Expenditure Surveys,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, ESRI forecasts for 2007.
Figure 10 - Average Annual Spending of Victor Valley Households in Select Retail Categories, 2007
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
Apparel &
Services
Entertain &
Recreation
Food
(home)
Food (away) Home Furn. Electronics
Travel
Spending – Daytime Workforce Population
„
Within the Victor Valley Market Area there are an estimated 8,455 businesses
employing over 64,900 persons — a captive consumer market for retail and service
businesses.
„
Two-thirds of these employees are in professional services.
„
This market segment makes steady purchases 52 weeks a year, spending an
average of $147 per week.
„
Conservatively, it is estimated that 15 percent of the daytime population commutes
to the Victor Valley area.
Victor Valley, CA — 2007
Page 11
Retail Market
Community Tapestry
„
Developed by ESRI Business Information Solutions, the Community Tapestry System
of analyzing market areas groups neighborhoods by census blocks which are then
analyzed and sorted by a variety of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics
and other determinants of consumer behavior. These groups are then categorized
into one of 65 market segments which can be used to predict and estimate spending
habits.
The top ten market segments in
Victor Valley represent:
- nearly 72,000 households
- a diverse trade area
- median incomes up to $67,000
Victor Valley, CA — 2007
Page 12
Retail Market
Victor Valley's Top Market Segments
INDUSTRIOUS URBAN FRINGE (18,284 HOUSEHOLDS)
Median Age 29 / Median Income $39,000
Employed in manufacturing, construction, retail, and agriculture
Many live in multigenerational households; children are present in
more than half of all households; two-thirds are homeowners;
mostly older, single-family houses
Spending: mortgage, necessities for babies and children, pets,
movies (at theater and home), listens to Hispanic and
contemporary hit radio programming
MILK AND COOKIES (17,283 HOUSEHOLDS)
Median Age 33 / Median Income $58,000
Young, affluent couples starting families or have young children;
two workers and three or more vehicles
Spending: baby and children’s products, investment portfolios,
insurance policies, fast food, convenience foods, visits to zoo,
movies, theme parks
COZY AND COMFORTABLE (5,792 HOUSEHOLDS)
Median Age 40 / Median Income $61,000
Settled families, working but nearing retirement, many living in
pre-1970’s single family homes; likely have a second mortgage
and use home equity credit lines for home improvement
Spending: home improvements, television over technology (many
own four or more sets), many own computers but older
equipment and software, leisure sports, lawn care, sports, mutual
funds, financial planning
MIDLAND CROWD (5,700 HOUSEHOLDS)
Median Age 36 / Median Income $47,000
Neighborhoods are mainly rural and experiencing strong
population growth, live in single-family houses built after 1990;
do-it-yourselfers, preferred vehicle is a used truck, politically
conservative
Spending: children’s items, pets, television, home and car care,
fishing and hunting, country music, domestic travel
CITY DIMENSIONS (5,332 HOUSEHOLDS)
Median Age 29 / Median Income $26,000
Highly diverse housing, household structures, and ethnic
backgrounds, majority are renters, many are young singles
Spending: television (movies and news), spectator sports (top
market for team sports clothing), home furnishings, video games,
discount shopping, dancing, concerts, movies
Victor Valley, CA — 2007
Page 13
Retail Market
PROSPEROUS EMPTY NESTERS (4,688 HOUSEHOLDS)
Median Age 46 / Median Income $64,000
Most households have no children living at home; members of
household are well-educated and experienced, active in the
community, politics, and charities
Spending: home renovation and maintenance, lawn care, health
products, investments, sports and exercise (golf, biking, skiing)
travel, reading
MIDLIFE JUNCTION (4,321 HOUSEHOLDS)
Median Age 40 / Median Income $43,000
Few households have children, most are employed but
approaching retirement; mix of homeowners and low-density
apartment dwellers living quiet, settled lives; prudent spenders
Spending: full-service restaurants, television, technology,
computers, gardening, reading, bargain and online shopping
IN STYLE (4,321 HOUSEHOLDS)
Median Age 38 / Median Income $65,000
Affluent suburban neighborhoods living an urban lifestyle (i.e.
townhomes rather than single-family houses); professionally
employed, most have fewer children than U.S. average
Spending: TV, radio, technology (cell phones, PDAs, fullyequipped PCs), home remodeling and lawn care services, live
entertainment, exercise, diet and health, expensive clothing
UP AND COMING FAMILIES (3,218 HOUSEHOLDS)
Median Age 32 / Median Income $67,000
Young, affluent families with young children (Generation Xers) in
new homes
Spending: home furnishings and improvement products, lawn care
equipment, baby and children’s items, pets, fast food, spectator
sports, zoos, ballgames, adult education classes
SIMPLE LIVING (2,942 HOUSEHOLDS)
Median Age 39 / Median Income $27,000
High percentage of this population is 75 years or older; most are
retired seniors living alone or in congregate housing
Spending: younger residents spend on clubs and dancing; seniors
spend on bingo and hobbies (photography, bird watching,
woodworking); both segments spend on swimming, golf, TV
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; Marketek, Inc.
Victor Valley, CA — 2007
Page 14
Retail Market
Comparative Retail Trade Area Tapestries
To provide insight to Victor Valley’s competitive position the region’s top ten market
segments are compared to other areas. Five of the Victor Valley’s top-earning market
segments are not shared with the other comparable markets — In Style, Midland Crowd,
Midlife Junction, Prosperous Empty Nester, and Simple Living.
MARKET SEGMENT
VICTOR
VALLEY
Aspiring Young Families
BAKERSFIELD PASADENA
3.9%
16.8%
Boomburbs
City Dimensions
Connoisseurs
5.1%
6.3%
5.7%
5.0%
Exurbanites
5.9%
19.9%
15.5%
11.9%
8.2%
International Marketplace
7.5%
11.1%
Main Street, USA
8.9%
Metro Renters
9.7%
16.9%
Midland Crowd
6.2%
Midlife Junction
4.7%
18.8%
NeWest Residents
6.0%
3.2%
7.4%
9.7%
Old and Newcomers
4.2%
6.5%
Prosperous Empty Nester
5.1%
Simple Living
3.2%
Sophisticated Squires
22.1%
Southwestern Families
4.0%
3.9%
7.3%
Suburban Splendor
9.0%
Top Rung
3.2%
6.0%
Trendsetters
Up & Coming Families
6.3%
4.7%
Inner City Tenants
Milk and Cookies
4.2%
4.0%
Enterprising Professional
Industrious Urban Fringe
5.8%
3.8%
5.9%
In Style
8.4%
5.9%
5.8%
City Lights
Cozy and Comfortable
RANCHO
RENO RIVERSIDE
CUCAMONGA SPARKS
7.8%
3.5%
6.5%
Urban Chic
Urban Villages
10.4%
9.5%
13.8%
2.7%
7.9%
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; Marketek, Inc.
Victor Valley, CA — 2007
Page 15
Retail Market
Shopping Centers in the Victor Valley Area
SHOPPING CENTER / LOCATION
YEAR OPENED
GROSS
LEASE
(SQ.FT.)
1994, expansion
2007-08
770,000
Apple Valley Commons / HWY 18 & Dale Evans Pkwy
2007
733,000
The Mall of Victor Valley / NWC Bear Valley Rd & I-15
1986
510,572
Desert Sky Plaza / SWC Roy Rogers & Civic Drive
2006
434,767
Dunia Plaza / SWC Bear Valley Rd & Amargosa Rd
2001
364,000
High Desert Gateway / I-15 & Main Street
Under construction
(open 10/08)
361,000
The Fountains at Quail Ridge / Apple Valley Rd & Yucca
Loma Rd
Under construction
(open 2009)
346,460
Valley Center / I-15 & Roy Rogers Dr
1988
309,203
The Village Center / Amargosa Rd & I-15
1990
275,000
2005, expansion
2008
259,131
The Village At Bass Hill / Hwy 18 & Rancherias
1996
250,000
Victor Valley Town Center / Hesperia Rd & Bear Valley Rd
1987
244,375
Midtown Square / NEC Main St & C Avenue
1987
220,000
Victor Valley Home Center / Mariposa & Cottonwood
1991
215,000
1985, expansion
2007
198,582
N/A
183,704
Bear Valley Plaza / Amethyst & Bear Valley Rd
1990
178,000
Kiowa Plaza / Bear Valley Rd & Kiowa
1990
177,000
Victor Plaza / Seventh St & LaPaz St
1968
168,151
Mojave River Crossings / Bear Valley Rd & Apple Valley Rd
2006
165,000
Apple Valley Plaza / Bear Valley Rd & Central Rd
2007
155,000
Liberty Village / NEC Bear Valley & Amethyst
1992
135,000
Target Center / Palmdale Rd & Park Dr
1982
123,300
Hi Desert Plaza / Bear Valley & Hesperia Rds
1983
111,000
Jess Ranch Marketplace / Bear Valley Rd & Apple Valley Rd
Apple Valley Towne Center / Bear Valley Rd & Apple Valley
Rd
Apple Valley Square / Bear Valley Rd & Navajo Rd
Victor Valley Shopping Center / Seventh St & Circle Dr
Rancherias Plaza / Rancherias Rd & Hwy 18
1991
110,000
Hesperia Marketplace / SEC 11th St & Main St
1991
105,000
N/A
96,464
Hesperia Town Center / Main St & I Avenue
1981
94,660
Desert Valley Shopping Center / Seventh St & Desert Knoll
1974
87,714
El Evado / Palmdale Rd & El Evado
1995
75,000
Under construction
(open mid-08)
52,000
Wimbledon Business Center / Hesperia & Bear Valley Rds
Topaz Marketplace / Main Street & Topaz Avenue
Victor Valley, CA — 2007
Page 16
Retail Market
SHOPPING CENTER / LOCATION
YEAR OPENED
GROSS
LEASE
(SQ.FT.)
Adelanto Marketplace / Palmdale Rd & US Hwy 395
2005
44,000
Shops at Topaz / Main Street & Topaz Avenue
2007
36,124
Spirit River Center / Apple Valley Rd & Muni Rd
2006
35,000
Apple Bear Center / Bear Valley Rd & Apple Valley Rd
2008
29,000
Apple Valley Gateway / Hwy 18 & Apple Valley Rd
2008
25,000
The Historic Apple Valley Inn / Hwy 18 & Dale Evans Pkwy
1948, expansion
2004
25,000
Education & Shopping Center / Hwy 18 & Apple Valley Rd
1975
23,200
Hesperia Plaza / Main Street, east of 11th Avenue
2006
22,988
Midtown Spectrum / NEC Roy Rogers & Amargosa Rd
2007
20,800
Hickory Tree Plaza / Main Street & Hickory Avenue
2007
18,450
Desert Knoll Plaza / Desert Knoll Dr & Seventh St
1986
18,389
Source: VVEDA member communities
Victor Valley, CA — 2007
Page 17
Retail Market
SAMPLING OF RETAILERS PRESENT IN VICTOR VALLEY
Mama Carpino’s Italian
Restaurant
99 Cents Only Stores
El Pollo Loco
Automobile Club of Southern
California (AAA)
Extreme Skin Rejuvenation
Medical Spa
Albertson’s
Famous Footwear
Mervyn’s
All Star Sporting Goods
Fashion Bug
Mimi’s Café
Allstate Insurance
Foot Locker
American Eagle
Four Star Pizza
Natural Nails Nestlé Tollhouse
Café
Applebee’s Restaurant
Flaming Wok
AT&T Wireless
Game Stop
AutoZone
Golden Chopstix
Baja Taco
Goodyear Auto Svc
Bank of America
Hair West Salon
Banner Mattress
Hilmar Health Center
Barnes & Noble
Hollywood Video
Bath & Body Works
Home Depot
Best Buy
Hometown Buffet
Big K
Hooks Books
Blockbuster Video
Hudsons Grill
Baskin Robbins
Italian Restaurant
Boston Store
It’s a Grind Coffee House
Brass Pickle
JCPenney
Buffalo wild Wings Grill Bar
Johnny Carino’s Country Italian
Restaurant
Carl’s Jr.
Carvel Ice Cream
Chili’s Restaurant
Chipotle Mexican Grill
Chop Stix
Cinemark Theatre
Circuit City
Clothestime
Costco Wholesale
DJ’s Sandwiches
Dollar Tree
Domino’s Pizza
Dress Barn
Victor Valley, CA — 2007
McDonald’s
Nubi Yogurt
OfficeMax
Oggi’s Pizza & Brewery
Olive Garden Restaurant
One Hour Photo
Ono Hawaiian Barbeque
On The Border Restaurant
Osco Drug
Outback Steakhouse
Pacific Sunwear
Panda Express
Papa John’s Pizza
Payless ShoeSource
PETsMART
Pier1 Imports
Pita Stop Mediterranean Grill
Juice It Up
The Pizza Factory
KB Toys
Pizza Hut
Kirkland’s Home
Port of Subs
Kohls
Pro Beauty Supply
Kristy Salon
Quality Sleep Center
L & L Hawaiian Barbeque
Quizno’s Subs
Lane Bryant
R & M Postal Svc
Le Chateaur de Soul Beauty
Salon
Ralph’s Grocery
Linko Sushi
Little Caesars Pizza
Longs Drugs
Lowe’s
Rent A Center
Red Persimmon Nail & Spa
Rite Aid Pharmacy
Ross Dress For Less
Page 18
Retail Market
SAMPLING OF RETAILERS PRESENT IN VICTOR VALLEY
Round Table Pizza
Taco Bell
Video Store
Sears
Tans ‘R Us
Vons Supermarket
Shamrock Flowers
Target (including Super Targets)
Wal-Mart
Sold It on eBay
Tender Touch Beauty Salon
Wells Fargo Bank
Spa Outlet
Texaco Svc Station
Wickers Furniture
Sports Bar
Tri-City Jewelers
Winco Foods
Staples Office
T-Shirt Warehouse
The Wine Seller
Starbucks Coffee
Two Good Chiropractic
Wing Stop
State Farm Insurance
Ultimate Gear
Stater Brother Supermarket
UltraStar Cinema
Wright’s Watch Repair &
Placques
Straw Hat Pizza
Victoria’s Secret
Sylvan Learning Center
Your Drug Store
Zales Jewelers
Source: VVEDA Member Communities
Victor Valley, CA — 2007
Page 19
For more information on
specific retail opportunities
in the Victor Valley, check
the Properties Inventory at
www.VictorValleyCa.com
or email us at
info@VictorValleyCA.com
Prepared by:
Chabin Concepts, Inc. Š 2515 Ceanothus Avenue, Ste 100 Š Chico, CA 95973 Š 530.345.0364
Marketek, Inc. Š 9220 SW Barbur Blvd. Ste 119-220 Š Portland, OR Š 503.636.1659