Market Track Research NoteTM
Black Friday: Trend Watch
Consumer behavior creates shift in Black Friday strategies
Competition for the shopper is heating up­—with fewer people predicted to shop on
Black Friday weekend this year, capturing the attention of the consumer has never been
more critical. The NRF estimates that the number of people who plan to shop on Black
Friday weekend will decrease slightly to 147 million, compared with 152 million last year.
Part of the decline can be attributed to brick and mortar locations continuing to lose
share to both to e-retailers and to their own competitive merchants. Forrester Research
predicted that online holiday sales will total $68.4 billion, up 15 percent from 2011. What
used to be considered added value is now the cost of entry to the game—services such
as free shipping, layaway and price matching continue to gain prevalence by brick and
mortar stores.
The availability of information and the ability of retailers to reach shoppers in more
ways than ever before is changing the game. Consumers can get information in real time
as they are creating their Black Friday plans. This has caused retailers to employ a more
aggressive approach than in previous years, with increased promotional activity across
various media types.
With Black Friday comprising 10 to 15 percent of the holiday season’s revenue
depending on trade class, stores are pulling out all the stops to capture the attention of
the shopper. They’re opening earlier on Thanksgiving Day and staggering doorbuster
events throughout the four-day weekend. In an attempt to take demand out of the
market, they are offering their doorbuster sales a week earlier. They’re making use of all
possible channels to reach shoppers, including the store, the website and increasingly,
mobile devices.
According to NRF, over the course of the holiday shopping season the average
consumer expects to spend $749.51 on gifts and other holiday items, up from the
$740.57 in 2011. The group forecasts total holiday sales at $586.1 billion, up 4 percent
from 2011.
This Research Note looks at some of the promotional trends seen this year—look for
more in depth analysis of the event in our Annual Holiday Shopping Season Perspective.
For further insights, please contact us at perspectives@markettrack.com.
www.markettrack.com
By the numbers…
$586.1 Billion
Total holiday sales are predicted at $586.1
billion, up 4 percent from 2011. 1
147 Million
Number of people who plan to shop on
Black Friday weekend has decreased slightly
to 147 million, compared with 152 million
last year. 1
$68.4 Billion
Online holiday sales will total $68.4 billion,
up 15 percent from 2011. 2
51%
Shoppers planning on doing research online
and visit store to purchase. 3
National Retail Federation, 2Forrester Research, 3IPSOS
MEDIACT/Google 2012 Holiday Shopping Intentions Survey
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Even earlier start
With 24 percent of holiday shoppers at stores by midnight last year, up from
9 percent the previous year according to NRF, consumer demand is driving
retailers to open earlier than ever. In addition to longer hours, retailers are
encouraging customers to stay in the store longer and to spread the crowds
out across the hours through their promotional events.
• Walmart is positioning promotions for Black Friday around three
“events.” There is a Pre-Black Friday event Friday-Wednesday both
online and in-store, they are opening at 8 p.m. on Thanksgiving (two
hours earlier than last year) and are offering a guarantee on select door
busters for one hour, and Event 3 kicks of on Black Friday at 5 a.m.
• Toys “R” Us will open an hour earlier this year at 8 p.m., offering the first
200 shoppers in line a free goody bag. In addition, they are staggering
promotions throughout the weekend.
• Sears stores will open at 8 p.m. on Thanksgiving, and Target will open
at 9 p.m.—hours earlier than last year’s openings. Target ran a “Beat the
Rush” sale the week prior to Thanksgiving, urging people to save early
so they can enjoy their turkey.
• Kmart will be open Thanksgiving from 6 a.m. to 4 p.m., will close and
then reopen from 8 p.m. to 3 a.m. and then will reopen at 5 a.m. for
Black Friday.
Services such as free shipping and layaway are now no longer
viewed as a nice to have, but are part of the shopper’s expectation.
According to NRF, over 92% of retailers offered free shipping in
2011. This year, several major retailers, including Walmart, Kmart,
and Toys “R” Us, have lowered or eliminated their layaway fees in
efforts to spur holiday shopping.
Always connected
Retailers are taking advantage of ways to reach shoppers in
real time by enhancing their mobile and online platforms.
• Walmart, Macy’s and other stores have integrated
interactive store maps into their mobile apps, so users
can click a Black Friday special and get directions to its
location in the specific store they’re in. The Macy’s app
will also notify shoppers of previously unadvertised
deals on Black Friday.
• Walmart is offering the chance to buy some
doorbusters online on Thanksgiving before the store
opens exclusively to customers who download the
store’s mobile app, join the e-mail list or “like” the
company on Facebook.
• Toys “R” Us launched their redesigned mobile shopping
app where shoppers can browse products, read
reviews and item descriptions, view video content and
place orders conveniently while on-the-go.
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Market Track Research NoteTM
Social Media Promotions: Driving engagement and
traffic to stores
Social media was more heavily leveraged leading up to Black
Friday this year, with contests and sweepstakes continuing to
drive engagement and shoppers to the store.
• Kohl’s “Operation: Black Friday Twitter Sweepstakes” is
meant to generate buzz and get people to Kohl’s stores
on Black Friday. Shoppers that send a tweet with the
#OperationBlackFriday hashtag to @Kohls containing a
photo of themselves waiting in line at a physical store
will have the chance to win a $100 Kohl’s gift card.
• JC Penney is trying a new tactic by having store
employees distribute 80 million buttons bearing holiday
decorations to customers on Black Friday. The buttons
have prize numbers printed on their backs. Customers
can check the button numbers on the company’s
website to see if they have won prizes such as a trip to
Disneyland, free products, gift cards or tickets to a taping
of the Ellen Degeneres Show.
• Toys “R” Us is helping victims of Hurricane Sandy by
allowing people pay off layaways to those affected and
giving $200 to Toys for Tots for each act of kindness.
• RadioShack allows participants in the “Wish it to Win
it Sweepstakes” the chance to win a $5,000 shopping
spree. Fans make a wish list on RadioShack’s site to share
with their friends—broadening their reach and engaging
with additional potential shoppers.
Opting for discounts
Push messaging in the form
of opt-in SMS messages and
emails are also on the rise.
Since shoppers have chosen to
receive these messages, be sure
to capitalize on the increased
propensity to buy by offering
targeted and relevant messaging.
• Office Max promoted its
Black Friday Every Friday
Deals via SMS on 11/9 and
11/16.
• JC Penney sent a preview to
their Black Friday ad via SMS
on 11/18
• Best Buy leveraged email to
promote its “Deal of the Day”
during their Countdown to
Thanksgiving Weekend Sale.
• Target offered a sneak peek
at doorbuster deals through
email on 11/10
Quick Tips…
• Utilize the ability to reach shoppers anywhere,
anytime. Understand which tactics are most
effective to reach different demographics
and capitalize on the chance to communicate
relevant messages in real time.
• Leverage the agility of digital media to course
correct should market conditions dictate or
a competitive situation arise. Be sure to be
aware of what is being promoted across all
media types to be able to react quickly.
• Incent loyal shoppers to prevent trial and
switching through additional benefits and
special offers.
• Leverage your most compelling offers early
in the season to remove demand from the
market.
• Manufacturers should look for ways
to optimize their messaging through
better placement as opposed to more
ads. Be willing to strive for higher quality
promotions through placement and size to
maximize the impact of promotional your
activity.
The Power of Market Intelligence
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