MARKET FORECAST
2015-2024
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT
BUSINESSAIRCRAFT.BOMBARDIER.COM
FORWARD LOOKING
STATEMENTS
This presentation includes forward-looking statements, which may involve, but are not
limited to: statements with respect to our objectives, guidance, targets, goals, priorities,
our market and strategies, financial position, beliefs, prospects, plans, expectations,
anticipations, estimates and intentions; general economic and business outlook,
prospects and trends of an industry; expected growth in demand for products and
services; product development, including projected design, characteristics, capacity
or performance; expected or scheduled entry-into-service of products and services,
orders, deliveries, testing, lead times, certifications and project execution in general;
our competitive position; and the expected impact of the legislative and regulatory
environment and legal proceedings on our business and operations. Forward-looking
statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology
such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “intend”, “anticipate”, “plan”, “foresee”, “believe”,
“continue”, “maintain” or “align”, the negative of these terms, variations of them or
similar terminology. By their nature, forward-looking statements require us to make
assumptions and are subject to important known and unknown risks and uncertainties,
which may cause our actual results in future periods to differ materially from forecasted
results. While we consider our assumptions to be reasonable and appropriate based
on information currently available, there is a risk that they may not be accurate. For
additional information with respect to the assumptions underlying the forward-looking
statements made in this presentation refer to the respective Guidance and forwardlooking statements sections in Overview, Bombardier Aerospace and Bombardier
Transportation sections in the Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) in the
Corporation’s financial report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014.
Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated
in the forward-looking statements include risks associated with general economic
conditions, risks associated with our business environment (such as risks associated
with the financial condition of the airline industry and rail industry, political instability
and force majeure), operational risks (such as risks related to developing new products
and services; fixed-price commitments and production and project execution; doing
business with partners; product performance warranty and casualty claim losses;
regulatory and legal proceedings; the environment; dependence on certain customers
and suppliers; human resources), financing risks (such as risks related to liquidity and
access to capital markets, retirement benefit plan risk, exposure to credit risk, certain
restrictive debt covenants, financing support provided for the benefit of certain
customers and reliance on government support) and market risks (such as risks related
to foreign currency fluctuations, changing interest rates, decreases in residual values
and increases in commodity prices). For more details, see the Risks and uncertainties
section in Other in the MD&A the Corporation’s financial report for the fiscal year ended
December 31, 2014. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors that may
affect future growth, results and performance is not exhaustive and undue reliance
should not be placed on forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statement
set forth herein reflect our expectations as at the date of this presentation and are
subject to change after such date. Unless otherwise required by applicable securities
laws, we expressly disclaim any intention, and assume no obligation to update or
revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future
events or otherwise. The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are
expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.
All amounts in this presentation are expressed in 2014 U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated. Global 5000, Global 6000, Global 7000, Global 8000, Learjet 40, Learjet 45, Learjet
70, Learjet 75, Learjet 85, Challenger 350, Challenger 650, Bombardier, Bombardier Business Aircraft, Bombardier Vision and The Evolution of Mobility are either Unregistered or
Registered Trade-Mark(s) of Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries.
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
2
TABLE
OF
CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2. BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT OVERVIEW
3. BUSINESS AIRCRAFT MARKET DRIVERS
4. BUSINESS AIRCRAFT MARKET FORECAST
5. FORECAST BY REGION
6. CONCLUSION
3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION
Bombardier Business Aircraft is pleased to present its 2015
edition of the Business Aircraft Market Forecast, debuting at
the European Business Aviation Convention and Exhibition
in Geneva. The forecast provides an in-depth look at how
six primary market drivers (wealth creation, globalization of
trade, emerging markets, new aircraft programs, replacement
demand and accessibility) will shape the future of business
aviation over the next 10 years.
This analysis focuses specifically on aircraft categories in
which Bombardier competes: Light, Medium and Large, as
well as major world regions.
THE BUSINESS JET MARKET IN 2014
In 2014, the business jet industry continued its path towards
recovery, led by the strengthening North American economy.
North American business jet orders and deliveries in the
markets where Bombardier competes were strong in 2014,
driven by solid domestic business investment, a thriving stock
market and sustained consumer spending. However, orders
and deliveries lagged in other regions as a result of several
challenges which held back a broader recovery in the world
economy. European GDP growth remained sluggish overall
but gained some momentum in the later part of 2014.
China’s growth decelerated while Russia ended the year on
the brink of recession due to falling oil prices and significant
economic restrictions imposed by the western world.
Last year the industry reached 601 aircraft deliveries,
a 6% increase from 2013. Demand for long range business
travel continued to grow, though at a slower pace, which
resulted in a total of 200 deliveries for Large category
aircraft. Medium category aircraft had 212 total deliveries,
a modest recovery expected to accelerate as world GDP
growth improves in upcoming years. Light category deliveries
amounted to 189 aircraft, less than half the level of deliveries
seen when the market peaked in 2008.
Having secured more aircraft orders and deliveries since the
downturn in 2009 than any other manufacturer, Bombardier
Business Aircraft continues to hold its position as industry
leader. In 2014, Bombardier Business Aircraft delivered 204
business aircraft, amounting to 34% delivery market share.
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
4
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
BUSINESS JET VALUE PROPOSITION
AND LONG-TERM VISION FOR THE INDUSTRY
Business jets have proven to be a cost-effective, fast, and
safe method of travel1. The benefits of business travel include
on-demand flight scheduling, the ability to conduct business
privately during flights, direct access to company sites and
reduced travel time. While we acknowledge the slow growth
facing the industry today, we believe the strong value
proposition for business jets remains uncontested. In the
long term, with continued wealth creation in mature markets
and increased penetration of business jets in emerging
markets, the overall market for business jets will show strong
growth. As a result, our long-term forecast remains relatively
unchanged from the forecast published last year.
Our 10-year delivery forecast predicts 9,000 business aircraft
deliveries valued at $267 billion. In the following sections, we
present our detailed forecast and analysis of the business jet
industry for key regions across the world.
In a series of studies conducted between 2009 and 2013, NEXA Advisors
evaluated the impact of business jet ownership on small to large companies,
as well as government agencies. Its most recent study on business aviation
and the world’s top performing companies concluded that companies
using business jets were likely to outperform non-users on revenue growth,
innovation, employee satisfaction and market share.
1
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
5
BOMBARDIER
BUSINESS
AIRCRAFT
Strength in numbers
2014 ACHIEVEMENTS
204 13%
DELIVERIES
INCREASE
VERSUS 2013
34% 10
TH
DELIVERY
MARKET SHARE
CONSECUTIVE
YEAR AS A LEADER1
PROGRAM MILESTONES
LEARJET
CHALLENGER
GLOBAL
DELIVERED
DELIVERED
DELIVERED
AND COUNTING
AND COUNTING
AND COUNTING
40/45/70/75 SERIES
600
1
Delivery unit leader in those segments where Bombardier competes.
300 SERIES
500
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
SERIES
600
6
BUSINESS AIRCRAFT
MARKET
DRIVERS
Drivers have a positive relationship
with the business aircraft market
WEALTH CREATION
GLOBALIZATION
OF TRADE
EMERGING
MARKETS
NEW AIRCRAFT
PROGRAMS
REPLACEMENT
DEMAND
ACCESSIBILITY
Expansion of economic
activity in the world,
measured by Gross
Domestic Product
Expansion of trade from
interregional partners
to a globally connected
economy
Growth of the world’s
developing markets and
the convergence
of business jet adoption
towards mature market
levels
Introduction of new
and technologically
advanced aircraft
models into the
industry
Demand generated
from the retirement
of aircraft
Alternatives to full
business jet ownership
The evolution of these drivers will shape the outlook of the industry
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
7
ECONOMIC
DRIVERS
BUSINESS JET FLEET AND WORLDWIDE ECONOMIC GROWTH
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2014
FLEET
(# aircraft)
830
2,000
4,650
8,650
14,150
15,735
WORLD
ECONOMY
($ trillion)
18.5
27.3
37.4
49.3
65.2
72.3
Growth in the business jet fleet has followed growth of the world economy
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
8
15
,7
35
ECONOMIC
DRIVERS
EMERGING
EMERGENCE
ECONOMIES
5
% POCKETS OF GROWTH
OF NEW
GDP
GROWTH
15
,7
35
EXPANDING GLOBALIZATION OF TRADE
EMERGING
ECONOMIES
3%
AVERAGE
WORLD GDP
5%
GDP
GROWTH
72
.3
2%
GDP
GROWTH
3%
AVERAGE
WORLD GDP
2014
72
.3
MATURE ECONOMIES
trillion)
2%
GDP
GROWTH
2014
MATURE ECONOMIES
($ trillion)
Expanding globalization of trade
is driving the need for direct
city-to-city access
High growth economies are accounting
for a greater share of world wealth
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
9
BUSINESS JET MARKET SEGMENTATION
In production: 34
In development: 14
VERY LIGHT
BOMBARDIER*
LIGHT
MEDIUM
LARGE
Learjet 70
Challenger 350
Global 5000
Learjet 75
Challenger 650
Global 6000
LARGE
CORPORATE
AIRLINERS
Global 7000
Global 8000
CESSNA
Mustang
CJ4
Citation X+
M2
XLS+
Longitude
CJ2+
Latitude
CJ3+
Sovereign+
DASSAULT
EMBRAER
Phenom 100
GULFSTREAM
F2000S
F7X
F2000LXS
F5X
F900LX
F8X
Phenom 300
Legacy 500
Legacy 450
Legacy 650
G150
Lineage 1000E
G280
G500
G450
G550
G600
G650/G650ER
OTHER
INDUSTRY
DRIVERS
Hondajet
PC-24
ACJ 318/319
SJ30-2
BBJ 1/2/3
Eclipse 550
BBJ Max 8/9
Introduction of several new and more capable models
stimulates demand and replacement purchase decisions
*
Learjet 85 program on pause
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
10
INDUSTRY
DRIVERS
2,050
REPLACEMENT DEMAND
2,050
Full ownership
Full ownership
mulative
siness jet
tirements
0
ACCESSIBILITY
14
1980
Cumulative
business jet
699
retirements
342
1960
1990
14
1970
2000
1980
699
342
2014
1990
2000
Branded
charter
Branded
charter
Air taxis
Air taxis
Fractional
Fractional
ownership
ownership
Jet card Jet card
programsprograms
2014
Increased pace of retirements drives
demand for replacement aircraft
Several alternatives to full business aircraft
ownership exist that extend the benefits
of private jet travel to many users
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
11
MARKET DRIVERS
OUTLOOK
Future projections of key market drivers
WEALTH
CREATION
The global economy is
expected to continue
improving. GDP growth
is forecasted to cross the
3% threshold by 2016-2017.
NEW AIRCRAFT
PROGRAMS
Several new models
will enter service between
2015-2024 which will attract
new buyers and stimulate
replacement activity.
GLOBALIZATION
OF TRADE
Trade globalization will
continue, particularly with and
between emerging markets,
increasing the need for direct
city-to-city access.
REPLACEMENT
DEMAND
1,825 worldwide business
aircraft retirements forecasted
over the next 10 years will
drive increased replacements.
EMERGING
MARKETS
Fleet size in these regions
is expected to continue
growing as business jet
adoption approaches
mature market levels.
ACCESSIBILITY
Operators in the charter
and fractional market
are renewing their fleets.
International expansion will
drive future growth.
The outlook for the long-term drivers of business jet demand remains strong
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
12
2015-2024
10
TOTAL
YEARS
LIGHT
MEDIUM
LARGE
$137B
3,400 $91B 3,100
38%
$39B
51%
34% 34%
2,500
28%
15%
FORECAST
BY
AIRCRAFT
SIZE
CATEGORY
$267 9,000
Billion
Deliveries
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
13
FORECAST BY
AIRCRAFT SIZE
CATEGORY
Light category
KEY CHARACTERISTICS
10-YEAR FORECAST
3,400
TYPICAL
PURCHASE PRICE
$9-20 M
3,100
8,770
CABIN VOLUME1
3
300 ft
to 700 ft3
-
+
+
-
11,085
1,085
7,755
690
5,345
=
CAGR
=
2.4%
CAGR
3.8%
RANGE
2,000 to
3,000 NM
2014 Fleet
2014 Fleet
Light category aircraft
offer intraregional range
at an entry-level cost
1
Cabin volume of 8.5 m3 to 19.8 m3
Deliveries
Deliveries
+
+
Retirements
Retirements
-
-
2024 Fleet
2024 Fleet
=
=
Light category will generate a total
of 3,400 deliveries from 2015 to 2024
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
14
FORECAST BY
AIRCRAFT SIZE
CATEGORY
Medium category
KEY CHARACTERISTICS
10-YEAR FORECAST
TYPICAL
PURCHASE PRICE
3,100
$20-42 M
3,100
5,345
CABIN VOLUME1
3
700 ft
to 1,500 ft3
-
+
+
-
7,755
690
7,755
690
5,345
=
CAGR
=
3.8%
CAGR
3.8%
RANGE
3,100 to
5,000 NM
2014 Fleet
2014 Fleet
Medium category aircraft
offer greater cabin comfort,
range and speed
1
Cabin volume of 19.8 m3 to 42.5 m3
Deliveries
Deliveries
+
+
Retirements
Retirements
-
-
2024 Fleet
2024 Fleet
=
=
Medium category will generate
a total of 3,100 deliveries from 2015 to 2024
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
15
FORECAST BY
AIRCRAFT SIZE
CATEGORY
Large category
KEY CHARACTERISTICS
10-YEAR FORECAST
TYPICAL
PURCHASE PRICE
$50-72 M
3,100
+
CABIN VOLUME
3
1
5,345
>1,500 ft
1,620
-
2,500
+
- 7,755
50
690
=
CAGR
9.6%
CAGR
4,070
=
3.8%
RANGE
>5,000 NM
2014 Fleet
2014 Fleet
Large category aircraft offer
the greatest cabin comfort,
range and speed
1
Cabin volume > 42.5 m3
Deliveries
Deliveries
+
+
Retirements
Retirements
-
-
2024 Fleet
2024 Fleet
=
=
Large category will generate a total
of 2,500 deliveries from 2015 to 2024
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
16
FORECAST
BY REGION
TOTAL 2015-2024:
9,000
DELIVERIES
NORTH AMERICA
3,900
EUROPE
1,525
CIS
510
LATIN AMERICA
850
AFRICA MIDDLE
EAST
275
400
SOUTH
ASIA
310
GREATER
CHINA
875
ASIA
PACIFIC
355
North America, Europe, China and Latin America will be the largest markets
for business aircraft over the next 10 years
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
17
2.6%
FORECAST BY REGION
NORTH AMERICA
$23.3
$18.1
2014
2015-2024 INDUSTRY DELIVERIES
ECONOMIC GROWTH
3,900 $96
Units
CAGR
2.6%
2024
FLEET GROWTH
CAGR
CAGR
2.6%
2%
Billion in revenue
12,715
10,090
KEY FACTS
$23.3aviation
•Birthplace of business
$23.3
$18.1
$18.1
•Largest market for business aircraft
2015-2024
OUTLOOK
2014
2024
2014
$ U.S. trillion (2010)
•Average economic growth
of 2.6% per year
2%
12,715
•Light and Medium category aircraft
account for over 80% of deliveries
2014
2024
For the purposes of this forecast, North America includes
the United States and Canada.
Units
LIGHT
2%
•Will remain the largest market
for business aircraft
MEDIUM
LARGE
LIGHT
12,715
2,060
2,060
10,090
53%
$33B
34%
$24B
1,140
53%
$39B
29%
25%
2014
2024
FORECAST BY CATEGORY
CAGR
•Fleet compound
CAGR annual
growth rate of 2%
•Forecasted
to receive 3,900 deliveries
10,090
valued at $96 billion
2014
2024
41%
700
18%
$
$24B
25%
2024
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
18
1.8%
FORECAST BY REGION
EUROPE
$22.3
$18.6
2014
2015-2024 INDUSTRY DELIVERIES
1,525
Units
CAGR
1.8%
$50
FLEET GROWTH
CAGR
CAGR
1.8%
7%
Billion in revenue
2,850
1,435
KEY FACTS
•Second largest$22.3
market
for$18.6
business jet deliveries
2015-2024 OUTLOOK
2014
ECONOMIC GROWTH
2024
2024
•Average economic growth
of 1.8% per year
2014
2024
Units
FORECAST BY CATEGORY
CAGR
LIGHT
7%
%
•Will remain 7the
second largest market
for business jet deliveries
•Medium and Large category aircraft
account for almost 70% of deliveries
2014
2024
$ U.S. trillion (2010)
•Fleet compound annual
CAGR
growth rate
of 7%
2,850
•Forecasted to receive
1,525 deliveries
1,435
valued at $50 billion
$22.3
$18.6
MEDIUM
500
62%
$14B 465
33%
28%
2024
For the purposes of this forecast, Europe includes the EU27 plus
Albania, Andorra, Bosnia, Croatia, Iceland, Kosovo, Liechtenstein,
Macedonia, Montenegro, Norway, Serbia, and Switzerland.
European fleet and deliveries are adjusted to exclude deliveries to
CIS-based owners that register their aircraft in Europe.
500
37%
$
33%
$5B
$5B
2014
560
30%
10%
2014
LIGHT
$31B
2,850
1,435
LARGE
10%
2024
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
19
6.5%
FORECAST BY REGION
GREATER CHINA
$16.7
$8.9
2014
2015-2024 INDUSTRY DELIVERIES
875
Units
CAGR
6.5%
ECONOMIC GROWTH
$33
FLEET GROWTH
CAGR
CAGR
6.5%
13%
Billion in revenue
1,255
385
KEY FACTS
$16.7
•Exceedingly fast
fleet growth over
the$8.9
last 10 years at more than 20%
per year
2014
•Medium and Large category aircraft
account for 90% of deliveries
For the purposes of this forecast, Greater China includes China,
Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.
Units
LIGHT
13%
MEDIUM
1,255
385
$14B
475
55%
LARGE
LIGHT
$18B
$
55%
42%
310
35%
$1B
2024
2024
FORECAST BY CATEGORY
CAGR
CAGR annual
•Fleet compound
growth rate13of
13%
%
385
2014
2024
$ U.S. trillion (2010)
•Average economic growth
of 6.5% per year
•Forecasted to receive 875 deliveries
valued at $33 billion1,255
$16.7
$8.9
2014
2024
2015-2024
OUTLOOK
2014
2024
2014
3%
90
$1B
10%
2024
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
3%
90
10%
20
3.3%
FORECAST BY REGION
LATIN AMERICA
$7.9
$5.7
2014
2015-2024 INDUSTRY DELIVERIES
850
Units
CAGR
3.3%
ECONOMIC GROWTH
$24
2024
FLEET GROWTH
CAGR
CAGR
3.3%
3%
Billion in revenue
2,505
1,925
KEY FACTS
$7.9
•Relatively mature
market
for$5.7
business aviation
•Brazil and Mexico account
for 60%
fleet
2014 of the regional
2024
2014
2024
Units
FORECAST BY CATEGORY
CAGR
•A
verage economic growth
CAGR
of 3.3% per
year
LIGHT
3%
3%
•Fleet compound
annual
growth rate of 3%
•Light and Medium category aircraft
account for 75% of deliveries
2014
2024
$ U.S. trillion (2010)
2015-2024 OUTLOOK
2,505
•Forecasted to receive
850 deliveries
1,925
valued at $24 billion
$7.9
$5.7
MEDIUM
LARGE
2,505
1,925
$11B
350
$9B 290
37%
41%
2024
34%
For the purposes of this forecast, Latin America includes
all countries between the Rio Grande and Cape Horn.
41%
210
25%
$4B
2014
350
46%
17%
2014
LIGHT
$4B
17%
2024
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
21
2.4%
FORECAST BY REGION
CIS
$2.8
$2.2
2014
2015-2024 INDUSTRY DELIVERIES
510
Units
CAGR
2.4%
ECONOMIC GROWTH
$16
FLEET GROWTH
CAGR
CAGR
2.4%
6%
Billion in revenue
1,035
555
KEY FACTS
$2.8
•Business aviation
in CIS began
$2.2
in the
early 1990s
2014
Units
LIGHT
6%
6%
•Fleet compound
annual
growth rate of 6%
MEDIUM
1,035
555
$9B
56%
LARGE
$1B
57%
$6B
90
130
25%
18%
$1B
6%
2014
LIGHT
290
38%
•Medium and Large category aircraft
account for over 80% of deliveries
For the purposes of this forecast, the Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS) includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus,
Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
2024
FORECAST BY CATEGORY
CAGR
•Average economic growth
CAGR
of 2.4% per
year
2024
2014
2024
$ U.S. trillion (2010)
2015-2024 OUTLOOK
1,035
•Forecasted to receive
510 deliveries
555
valued at $16 billion
$2.8
$2.2
•Fleet has grown by nearly 7%
per year
early 1990s
2014 since the
2024
2014
2024
2024
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
90
18%
6%
22
4%
FORECAST BY REGION
MIDDLE EAST
$4.9
$3.3
2014
2015-2024 INDUSTRY DELIVERIES
400
Units
CAGR
4%
ECONOMIC GROWTH
$15
FLEET GROWTH
CAGR
CAGR
4%
7%
Billion in revenue
780
410
KEY FACTS
$4.9market
•Remains a promising
for$3.3
business aviation
$4.9
$3.3
2014
•Long distances between cities and
difficult
justify
2014 ground transportation
2024
the need for business aviation
CAGR
•Average economic
growth
of 4.0% per7year
%
LIGHT
7%
410
•Forecasted
to receive 400 deliveries
valued at $15 billion
For the purposes of this forecast, the Middle East region also
includes Turkey.
Units
FORECAST BY CATEGORY
MEDIUM
LARGE
$5B
180
60%
45%
33%
$1B
60
160
40%
$1B
15%
7%
2014
LIGHT
$9B
780
410
•Medium and Large category aircraft
remain the aircraft of choice
2024
2024
$ U.S. trillion (2010)
CAGR
•Fleet compound annual growth
rate of 7%
780
2014
2024
2015-2024 OUTLOOK
2014
2024
2024
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
60
15%
7%
23
2.5%
FORECAST BY REGION
ASIA PACIFIC
$13.8
$10.8
2014
2015-2024 INDUSTRY DELIVERIES
355
Units
CAGR
2.5%
$14
FLEET GROWTH
CAGR
CAGR
2.5%
6%
Billion in revenue
$13.8
•Geographic position
necessitates
$10.8
the
need for long range aircraft
2015-2024 OUTLOOK
2014
FORECAST BY CATEGORY
LIGHT
6%
%
•Forecasted 6to
receive 355 deliveries
valued at $14 billion
MEDIUM
For the purposes of this forecast, Asia Pacific excludes Greater
China and South Asia.
LIGHT
205
58%
$1B
$2B
22%
14%
7%
2014
79%
720
405
LARGE
$11B
80
2024
2024
Units
CAGR
•Fleet compound annual
CAGR
growth rate
of 6%
for close to 60% of deliveries
2014
2024
$ U.S. trillion (2010)
2024
720account
•Large category aircraft
405
$13.8
$10.8
•Average economic growth
of 2.5% per year
2014
720
405
KEY FACTS
2014
ECONOMIC GROWTH
2024
80
70
20%
2024
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
$1B
22%
7%
24
7%
FORECAST BY REGION
SOUTH ASIA
$5.1
$2.6
2014
2015-2024 INDUSTRY DELIVERIES
310
Units
CAGR
7%
ECONOMIC GROWTH
$12
FLEET GROWTH
CAGR
CAGR
7%
12%
Billion in revenue
455
150
KEY FACTS
$5.1 its regional
•Continues to develop
$2.6aviation market
business
$5.1
$2.6
2014
•Infrastructure and regulatory
environment
continue
2014
2024
to slowly improve
CAGR
•Average economic
growth
of 7% per year
12%
LIGHT
12%
150
•Forecasted
to receive 310 deliveries
valued at $12 billion
For the purposes of this forecast, Asia Pacific includes Afghanistan,
Pakistan, Bhutan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Nepal.
Units
FORECAST BY CATEGORY
MEDIUM
150
LARGE
LIGHT
$9B
75%
455
160
52%
70
•Large category aircraft account
for over 50% of deliveries
2024
2024
$ U.S. trillion (2010)
CAGR
•Fleet compound annual growth
rate of 12%
455
2014
2024
2015-2024 OUTLOOK
2014
2024
$1B
$2B
23%
25%
17%
8%
2014
70
80
2024
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
$1B
23%
8%
25
4.8%
FORECAST BY REGION
AFRICA
$3.5
$2.2
2014
2015-2024 INDUSTRY DELIVERIES
275
Units
CAGR
4.8%
ECONOMIC GROWTH
$7
2024
FLEET GROWTH
CAGR
CAGR
4.8%
5%
Billion in revenue
595
380
KEY FACTS
$3.5
•Important market
for business aircraft
$2.2
deliveries
•Fleet size has more than doubled
in the
past 10 years
2014
2024
2014
2014
2024
2024
$ U.S. trillion (2010)
2015-2024 OUTLOOK
Units
FORECAST BY CATEGORY
CAGR
•Average economic growth
CAGR
of 4.8% per
year
LIGHT
5%
5%
•Fleet compound
annual
growth rate of 5%
595
•Forecasted to receive
275 deliveries
380
valued at $7 billion
$3.5
$2.2
MEDIUM
$3B 110
43%
100
40%
36%
$3B
2024
$1B
2014
100
43%
65
24%
14%
2014
LIGHT
595
380
•Light and Medium category aircraft
account for over 75% of deliveries
LARGE
36%
$1B
14%
2024
BOMBARDIER BUSINESS AIRCRAFT | MARKET FORECAST 2015-2024
26
CONCLUSION
In 2014, business aviation continued on its path towards
recovery. Though industry orders lagged, deliveries increased
by 6% compared to the previous year. Over the next 10 years,
we expect Large category aircraft will represent half of overall
revenues at $137 billion while Medium and Light category aircraft
will represent $91 billion and $39 billion respectively. Emerging
markets like China, Russia, and Latin America will once again
be key drivers to future growth as current challenges in these
markets subside.
Our 2015 edition of the Business Aircraft Market Forecast predicts
a promising future for business aviation in the years ahead.
With the most extensive product portfolio of any manufacturer,
Bombardier is well positioned to lead the industry forward.
RESOURCES
Ascend
Asian Sky Group
B&CA – Business & Commercial
Aviation Magazine
GAMA – General Aviation
Manufacturers Association
IBAC – International Business
Aviation Council
IHS Global Insight World Economic
Outlook, January 2015
JETNET
NEXA Advisors
This presentation can be found on
BUSINESSAIRCRAFT.BOMBARDIER.COM
27