Georgia Coast 2030:
Population Projections for the 10-county Coastal Region
For
Coastal Georgia Regional Development Center
Prepared by the
CENTER FOR QUALITY GROWTH AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
at the GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
September 2006
Georgia Coast 2030:
Population Projections for the 10-county Coastal Region
Table of Contents
Introduction
1
Section I: Regional Overview
3
Section II: Projections for Counties & Cities
7
Bryan
Bulloch
Camden
Chatham
Effingham
Glynn
Liberty
Long
McIntosh
Screven
County Projection Methodology
City and Town Forecast Methodology
Projection Calibration Techniques
References & Acknowledgements
85
Coastal Georgia Regional
Development Center began
operation in 1964. The Coastal
Georgia RDC serves 10 counties and
35 cities. The region encompasses
the six coastal counties and four
inland counties and has a total land
area of over 5,110 square miles.
The Coastal Georgia RDC provides
local and regional comprehensive
planning services and specialized
planning services in transportation,
water resources, and historic
preservation. The Center also serve
as the Economic Development
District for Coastal Georgia and the
Area Agency on Aging. For more
information visit
www.coastalgeorgiardc.org.
85
88
89
About the Center for Quality Growth
and Regional Development
7
15
23
32
42
49
56
66
72
77
Appendix
101
Cover Credit: LandSat Image Provided by Georgia Tech Center for GIS
About Coastal Georgia Regional
Development Center
The Center for Quality Growth and
Regional Development (CQGRD) is
an applied research center of the
Georgia Institute of Technology. The
Center serves communities—
particularly those in the Southeast
United States—by producing,
disseminating, and helping to
implement new ideas and
technologies that improve the theory
and practice of quality growth. For
more information about CQGRD visit
www.cqgrd.gatech.edu.
Introduction
In 2006, Coastal Georgia Regional Development Center (CGRDC) recently contracted Georgia
Tech’s Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development (CQGRD) to create population
projections to 2030 for the 10-county coastal area, to include Bryan, Bulloch, Camden, Chatham,
Effingham, Glynn, Liberty, Long, McIntosh and Screven Counties. The impetus for this study
was the perception that commonly used projection methods did not adjust for the unique context
and most recent growth trends of coastal Georgia.
Between 1990 and 2000, the population of the Georgia coast increased by 17.5 percent,
according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Since 2000, in-migration and development have
continued in the 10 counties. Many believe this growth will persist.
Recognizing the unique conditions of coastal Georgia, CGRDC and Georgia Tech researchers
agreed to apply a scientific and context-specific methodology to arrive at population projections
by age and sex for each county. This model begins by measuring the three components of
population change: birth, death, and migration as it relates to different age and gender groups.
Because this method primarily uses 1995 and 2000 data, researchers acknowledged the need
to adjust the process to reflect more recent trends. To understand the current context of
development and growth in the coast, more than 45 local representatives were interviewed,
including commissioners, mayors, city managers, planners, school administrators, and others.
These interviews led to the examination of additional data, including building permits,
certificates of occupancy, military base personnel changes, and school enrollment, which were
used to adjust the projections to reflect the most recent activity on the coast.
To estimate population for the region’s incorporated cities, the constant share method was
employed. The constant share method uses the city’s 2000 share of county population and
holds that share constant against the projected county population. This method was applied
because data used to project county population are not enumerated at the city level. Therefore,
the city’s future population estimates operate as a percentage of the county population,
increasing it at the same rate. For cities with a population of more than 4,000 in the year 2000,
the 2030 population estimate is provided by age and sex.
This study recognizes that several factors affect population change, including demographic
trends (principally age distribution and mortality rates), in- and out-migration rates, employment
rates and other economic activity, and housing construction. Population is also affected by
factors whose impacts are not subject to easily captured quantitative measurement, such as
land use patterns, policy decisions, impressions about the development potential of an area,
and regional, national and global trends.
Georgia Coast 2030
1
This report presents the results of coastal Georgia population study. The report is divided into
three sections, as described below:
ƒ
Section I provides population projections to 2030 for the 10-county coastal area.
These projections are supported by summary economic and construction data, as
well as comments from local stakeholders.
ƒ
Section II includes population projections to 2030 by age and sex for the 10 counties
and overall population estimates for 35 incorporated cities.
ƒ
The Appendix presents detailed information on the methodology for population
projections for the counties and incorporated city population estimates, as well as
calibration strategies used for each jurisdiction, as appropriate.
The results of this study were presented to the CGRDC Board on October 11, 2006.
Georgia Coast 2030
2
Section I: Regional Overview
Historic Population Trends
The coastal Georgia region has shown consistent growth in recent decades, increasing in
population by 62% (approximately 215,600 people) between 1970 and 2000 (Figure 1). Since
2000, in-migration and development have continued in the 10-county coastal area, which
includes Bryan, Bulloch, Camden, Chatham, Effingham, Glynn, Liberty, Long, McIntosh and
Screven Counties. It is widely believed that this growth will persist.
Figure 1 – Coastal Georgia Historic Population, 10-county region
Coastal Georgia 10-County Region
600000
550000
people
500000
Population
450000
400000
350000
300000
1970
1980
1990
2000
year
Regional Economic Conditions
An examination of the types of businesses located in the 10 counties in 2000, as measured by
number of jobs in each sector (i.e. the local industry mix), illustrates the region’s heavy reliance
on the retail and service sectors, which combined account for 46% of the total employment in
the region. Industry projections for 2030 by Woods and Poole Economics, Inc., a firm
specializing in long-term county economic and demographic projections, show services growing
the most of any sector, with its share of industry mix expected to increase to 35%. This growth
is offset by decreases in several sectors, most noticeably federal military (-1.1%), manufacturing
(-4.1%), and construction (-0.9%) (Table 1).
According to local stakeholders, the main attractions for businesses that locate in the region are
proximity to the International Airports in Savannah, GA and Jacksonville, FL, the ports of
Savannah and Brunswick, interstate access, three military bases, and the growing number of
and enrollment in colleges in the region. Overall, jobs in the 10 counties are projected to
Georgia Coast 2030
3
increase by 39% by 20301. According to Woods and Poole, the region had 313,000 jobs in 2000
and is projected to have 435,000 jobs in 2030.
Table 1 – Coastal Georgia Region Industry Projections
2000
2030
Change
Federal
Military
8.6%
7.5%
-1.1%
Trans.
Const.
Manuf.
Retail
Services
5.1%
4.6%
-0.5%
6.0%
5.1%
-0.9%
9.4%
5.3%
-4.1%
18.8%
20.2%
1.4%
27.8%
34.7%
6.9%
State/ Local
Govt
11.5%
11.7%
0.2%
Source: Woods and Poole Economics
Residential Construction
Residential construction is increasing throughout the region with all counties showing an
increase in residential units being built in the last five years. This suggests a continued trend of
in-migration and growth within the area. Additionally, interviewees in many of the counties
suggest a continuing supply of land available for residential and commercial construction as
land is taken out of timber production.
Other Factors
Other factors also influence population change. For example, several interviewees from the 10county area remarked that Georgia’s relatively protected coastal area has reduced hurricane
impacts and thereby attracts people thinking of relocating. Furthermore, major infrastructure and
other state and federal investments and decisions (e.g. military facilities, land preservation, or
water resources) may shift population trends, just as activities and development trends in
nearby jurisdictions have the potential to do the same. And finally, land suitable for development,
either from an environmental or economic perspective, may affect population growth. While
these types of issues are beyond the scope of this study, they warrant consideration when
reviewing the population projections.
Coastal Georgia Population Projections to 2030
This study found that the coastal Georgia region’s population is projected to increase by 32%,
from 558,350 in 2000 to 737,328 by 2015. By 2030, the population is expected to reach 844,161
people, an increase of 51% over the 2000 population (Table 2). The region’s population growth
is driven primarily by the net gain in people moving into the region primarily from other parts of
the state and country, referred to as in-migration.
1
Woods and Poole Economics
Georgia Coast 2030
4
Table 2 – Coastal Georgia Region Population Projections to 2030
Projected Population
2000
2015
2030
558,350
737,328
844,161
Data Sources: U.S. Census 2000, Georgia Office of Planning and Budget (OPB), Georgia Division of Public Health Office of
Health Information and Policy, Individual Counties
Calculations for projected population and cohort model: Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development (Georgia
Tech)
*The State of Georgia Office of Planning and Budget only estimates county population for the years 2005 & 2015.
The projected populations for the counties in this report are calculated using an inter-regional
cohort component model, which tracks population change by age and sex, using baseline
population counts as well as birth, death, and migration rates. This methodology is consistent
with the widely used and accepted practices for population projections2. This model employs
population and migration data from the 2000 U.S. Census and the State of Georgia’s countyspecific birth and death rates. Additionally, local building permit, certificate of occupancy, and
school enrollment data were utilized to calibrate the in-migration rates to reflect current trends.
To supplement this local data and further uncover local trends, over 45 stakeholders from the
region were interviewed.
2
Isserman, Andrew M. (1993), “The Right People, The Right Places: Making Population Estimates with an Inter-regional Cohort
Component Model.” Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 59, No. 1.
Klosterman, Richard (1990), Community Analysis and Planning Techniques. Savage, Md., Rowman & Littlefield.
Georgia Coast 2030
5
Georgia Coast 2030
6
Section II: Projections for Counties
and Cities
Bryan County, GA
The Context of Population Change
The factors that affect population change include demographic trends (principally age
distribution and mortality rates), in- and out-migration rates, employment rates and other
economic activity, housing construction, land use patterns, and regional, national and global
trends. Population is also affected by factors whose impacts are not subject to easily captured
quantitative measurement, such as policy decisions or impressions about the development
potential of an area. We typically collect such information through anecdotal interviews with
stakeholders. The following chapter outlines the conditions impacting population trends in Bryan
County, Georgia.
Historic Population Trends
Bryan County has been experiencing consistently strong growth since the 1970s. In each of the
three decades preceding the 2000 census, Bryan grew at a rate of between 52% and 56%
(Figure 1a). The county’s two incorporated cities, Richmond Hill and Pembroke, have only more
recently experienced a similar growth rate. During the 1970s and 1980s, Pembroke’s population
growth was in the single digits, not matching the county’s strong growth until the 1990s.
Richmond Hill experienced an accelerated growth rate in the triple digits in both the 1980s and
1990s. These numbers indicate that the growth in the county was initially occurring in the
unincorporated county areas but, beginning in the 1980s, grew significantly in the incorporated
cities.
Georgia Coast 2030
7
Figure 1a - Bryan County Historic Population
Bryan County
25000
people
20000
15000
Population
10000
5000
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
year
The population growth in Bryan County has been accompanied by a number of noteworthy
demographic changes. The median age has increased steadily since 1980, going from 27
years of age in 1980 to 33.3 in 2000. County school enrollment data from the past ten years
shows total enrollment increasing by approximately 6.5% between fall 1995 and spring 2000
and increasing by approximately 17.5% between fall 2000 and spring 2005. This increase in
school enrollment, coupled with the increase in the median age, indicates that the county is
experiencing growth in the number of families with school-age children.
Economic Conditions
Interviews with local representatives indicate that Bryan County is experiencing some difficulty
attracting businesses in new industries. An examination of the types of businesses in 2000, as
measured by number of jobs in each sector (i.e. the local industry mix), showed a dominant
services sector, which accounted for over one quarter of the county’s jobs. Woods and Poole
industry projections for 2030 (Table 1a) show services growing the most of any sector, with its
share of industry mix expected to increase by more than 7%, to a 32.8% share by 2030. This
growth is likely to be offset by decreases in several sectors, most noticeably manufacturing (2.2%) and retail (-2.1%). In 2000, Bryan County had 7,000 jobs, by 2030 that is number is
expected to increase to 13,500.
Table 1a - Bryan County Industry Projections
Construction
2000
2030
Change
13.4%
14.3%
0.9%
Finance/
Insurance/
Real Estate
8.8%
8.7%
0.0%
Manufacturing
Retail
Services
State/ Local
Govt
4.2%
2.0%
-2.2%
18.1%
16.0%
-2.1%
25.6%
32.8%
7.2%
18.0%
17.7%
-0.3%
Source: Woods and Poole Economics, Inc.
Georgia Coast 2030
8
Numbers provided by the county indicate a steady increase in commercial building permits and
business licenses over the past five years, with stakeholder interviews supporting these
numbers. According to stakeholder interviews, the county is having some success attracting
small businesses, but these are mainly in the retail and service industries. The decision by
Orafol USA, Inc. to locate its U.S. headquarters and first manufacturing facility outside of
Europe within Bryan County has brought with it an increase in construction-related jobs and will
result in the creation of new, long-term jobs at the facility. The company produces PVC films for
use in graphics products, adhesive tapes, and reflective films.
Residential Construction
Residential construction is currently at an all-time high in Bryan County as indicated by annual
residential building permit numbers provided by the county. Certificates of occupancy are also
on a steady rise, mirroring the increase in building permits; both experienced significant
increases between the years 1999 and 2000.
The quality of the school system, low taxes, and proximity to I-95 and Savannah were cited as
attractors for people moving to the area. As indicated by the historic population numbers,
Richmond Hill, an incorporated city in Bryan County, has experienced significant residential
growth, particularly in the past decade. According to stakeholder interviews, current trends
indicate an increase in residential growth on the north end of the county, supported by an
increase in subdivision development. Stakeholder interviews noted the composition of
population growth, pointing out an increase in older residents and couples both with and without
school-age children. This influx is fueling an increase primarily in single-family, detached homes,
although an increase has also occurred with single-family, attached homes in the form of
townhouses and condos. Second homes are also on the rise.
Interviewees noted that overall residential construction is keeping up with demand, if not staying
slightly ahead of need, and housing prices have been on the rise in recent years. The county is
experiencing a shortage of affordable housing. Both the north and south ends of the county
have seen some large land purchases by residential developers in recent years with others in
the works, according to interviewees. Availability of land and provision of water and sewer by
the county were sited as factors fueling development.
Other Factors
Refer to Section I: Regional Overview for a brief summary of other factors that may influence
population change in the Georgia coastal region.
Georgia Coast 2030
9
Bryan County Population Projections to 2030
According to this study, Bryan County’s population is projected to increase by 66%, from 23,417
people in 2000 to 38,815 by 2015. By 2030, the population is expected to reach 45,986 people,
an increase of 96% over the 2000 population. By comparison, the State of Georgia Office of
Planning and Budget estimate for Bryan County shows a 65% increase by the year 2015. The
county’s population growth is driven primarily by the net gain in people moving into the county,
referred to as in-migration.
The Standard Methodology
The projected population is calculated using an inter-regional cohort component model, which
tracks population change by age and sex, using baseline population counts as well as birth,
death, and migration rates. This methodology is consistent with the widely accepted standard
followed in the use of the inter-regional cohort component model3. The model employed for
Bryan County used population and migration data from the 2000 U.S. Census and the State of
Georgia’s county-specific birth and death rates. The use of data and analytical procedures are
specified in the Appendix.
Adjusting the Model with Local Data
Interviews with local representatives suggested a relatively fast population growth has occurred
in recent years. Therefore, the population model was adjusted to reflect the most recent trends
in housing construction and in-migration. This adjustment was made using certificate of
occupancy data from 2000 to 2005 provided by Bryan County.4 According to the county, 1,130
certificates were issued during this period.
The certificates of occupancy, along with vacancy rates and average household size data from
the 2000 U.S. Census, were used to generate a population estimate for 2005. The result was an
estimated county population of 30,520 people in 2005. Before this adjustment was made, the
2005 population estimate was 26,706 (see Table 2a). More details about the adjustment
procedure are available in the Appendix.
Projection Results and Comparisons
Based on the adjusted projection model, Bryan County’s population is expected to reach 45,986
by 2030. Table 2a shows the projected population (using the adjusted model described above
and in more detail in the Appendix), in comparison to the unadjusted cohort model and the State
of Georgia’s population estimates.
3
Isserman, Andrew M. (1993), “The Right People, The Right Places: Making Population Estimates with an Inter-regional Cohort
Component Model.” Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 59, No. 1.
Klosterman, Richard (1990), Community Analysis and Planning Techniques. Savage, Md., Rowman & Littlefield.
4
Data provided by Coastal Market Graphics were considered in model calibration.
Georgia Coast 2030
10
Table 2a - Bryan County Population Projection to 2030
Projected Population
Unadjusted Cohort
Model
State of GA - OPB
Estimates*
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
23,417
30,520
35,203
38,815
41,746
44,134
45,986
23,417
26,706
29,385
31,765
33,801
35,533
36,987
23,417
28,549
33,135
38,746
Data Sources: U.S. Census 2000, Georgia Office of Planning and Budget (OPB), Georgia Division of Public Health Office of
Health Information and Policy, Bryan County
Calculations for projected population and cohort model: Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development (Georgia
Tech)
*The State of Georgia Office of Planning and Budget only estimates county population for the years 2005 & 2015.
Table 3a documents the results of the adjusted projected population by age and sex in five-year
increments.
Table 3a - Bryan County Population Projection, detailed summary
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
928
1,050
1,109
1,035
595
690
787
1,037
1,070
896
771
528
364
259
224
130
73
57
11,603
2000
Female
872
910
1,104
928
640
751
904
1,133
1,109
935
713
505
350
278
236
196
127
123
11,814
Total
1,800
1,960
2,213
1,963
1,235
1,441
1,691
2,170
2,179
1,831
1,484
1,033
714
537
460
326
200
180
23,417
Male
870
923
1,181
1,460
1,266
665
775
822
1,189
1,396
1,193
1,019
801
546
337
245
129
108
14,925
2005
Female
904
868
1,064
1,455
1,176
739
866
1,061
1,340
1,479
1,266
965
751
512
377
304
232
235
15,595
Total
1,775
1,791
2,245
2,915
2,443
1,403
1,641
1,883
2,529
2,875
2,459
1,983
1,552
1,058
714
549
361
344
30,520
Male
870
866
1,196
1,450
1,498
789
818
839
1,074
1,410
1,488
1,348
1,210
966
570
322
170
152
17,036
2010
Female
968
900
1,090
1,393
1,432
879
910
1,061
1,277
1,557
1,633
1,380
1,146
900
588
410
297
346
18,167
Total
1,838
1,766
2,287
2,843
2,930
1,668
1,728
1,900
2,351
2,966
3,120
2,728
2,356
1,866
1,158
732
467
498
35,203
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
928
985
1,261
1,560
1,527
791
891
942
1,187
1,350
1,373
1,475
1,652
1,609
1,209
742
287
215
19,985
2020
Female
1,039
1,030
1,196
1,514
1,437
893
1,008
1,191
1,382
1,510
1,567
1,580
1,695
1,583
1,241
876
506
512
21,761
Total
1,966
2,015
2,457
3,075
2,964
1,684
1,899
2,133
2,569
2,861
2,941
3,055
3,348
3,193
2,449
1,618
792
727
41,746
Male
1,034
923
1,324
1,623
1,588
837
851
953
1,235
1,461
1,408
1,411
1,567
1,734
1,436
942
413
273
21,011
2025
Female
1,083
1,034
1,244
1,588
1,501
947
964
1,209
1,445
1,621
1,591
1,521
1,626
1,741
1,520
1,114
729
644
23,123
Total
2,117
1,957
2,568
3,211
3,088
1,784
1,815
2,162
2,680
3,082
2,999
2,932
3,193
3,475
2,956
2,055
1,142
916
44,134
Male
966
1,028
1,333
1,683
1,656
876
904
917
1,252
1,521
1,525
1,450
1,508
1,640
1,529
1,106
507
368
21,768
2030
Female
1,083
1,078
1,268
1,644
1,572
992
1,028
1,164
1,467
1,694
1,710
1,547
1,568
1,658
1,644
1,335
904
862
24,219
Total
2,049
2,106
2,601
3,327
3,228
1,868
1,932
2,081
2,719
3,216
3,235
2,996
3,075
3,297
3,174
2,441
1,411
1,230
45,986
Georgia Coast 2030
Male
990
866
1,219
1,509
1,455
827
875
905
1,098
1,318
1,446
1,542
1,504
1,333
920
488
206
184
18,688
2015
Female
1,034
964
1,136
1,452
1,365
937
983
1,133
1,290
1,491
1,632
1,625
1,505
1,257
938
585
371
429
20,127
Total
2,025
1,829
2,355
2,961
2,820
1,765
1,859
2,038
2,388
2,810
3,078
3,167
3,009
2,590
1,858
1,073
577
613
38,815
11
Population Forecast for
Bryan County’s Incorporated Cities
Following are population forecasts for incorporated cities located in Bryan County. The constant
share method was employed. The constant share method uses the city’s 2000 share of county
population and holds that share constant against the projected county population. This model
was adjusted to reflect current building trends using certificate of occupancy data from 2001 to
2005 provided by the city. This method was used because data used to project the county
population are not enumerated at the city level. This method estimates the city’s population as a
percentage of the county population, increasing it at the same rate. This estimation technique is
based on U.S. Census 2000 data and city boundaries as of 2000. See the Appendix for a more
detailed description of the forecasting methodology.
It is important to note that population estimates for cities are very challenging; therefore, they
may be less accurate than county population projections. These difficulties reflect the fact that
there is limited data available at the city scale, annexations can drastically change land
availability, and land use/zoning policy changes can increase the intensity of land development.
City of Richmond Hill
In 2000, the City of Richmond Hill’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 6,959 people.
According to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase
approximately 80% to 12,513 people by 2015. By 2030, the population is forecasted to reach
14,825, a 113% increase from 2000 (see Table 4a).
Table 4a - City of Richmond Hill Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
6,959
9,839
11,349
12,513
13,458
14,228
14,825
Detailed age and sex cohort forecasts were done for the city of Richmond Hill (Table 5a). To
calculate these forecasts, the age and sex cohort allocation from the 2000 census is assumed
to stay constant and is used to allocate population forecasts to specific cohorts.
Georgia Coast 2030
12
Table 5a - City of Richmond Hill Detailed Cohort Forecasts to 2030
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
321
357
326
258
213
300
335
340
285
176
117
77
64
57
51
31
22
18
3,347
2000
Female
329
342
319
269
237
346
386
358
310
178
123
67
87
70
59
50
43
39
3,612
Total
650
699
645
527
449
646
721
698
595
353
240
144
151
128
110
80
66
57
6,959
Male
453
505
461
365
301
424
474
480
402
248
165
109
91
81
72
43
32
25
4732
2005
Female
466
484
451
380
335
489
546
506
439
251
173
94
123
99
83
70
61
55
5107
Total
919
989
912
745
635
913
1020
987
841
499
339
204
214
180
155
114
93
80
9839
Male
523
582
532
421
347
489
546
554
464
286
191
126
105
94
83
50
36
29
5458
2010
Female
537
558
520
439
386
564
630
584
506
290
200
109
142
114
96
81
71
64
5891
Total
1060
1140
1052
860
733
1053
1176
1138
970
576
391
235
247
208
179
131
107
93
11349
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
620
691
631
499
411
580
648
657
550
339
226
149
124
111
99
59
43
34
6472
2020
Female
637
662
617
520
458
669
747
692
600
344
237
129
169
135
113
96
84
76
6986
Total
1257
1352
1248
1019
869
1249
1395
1350
1151
683
463
278
293
247
212
155
127
110
13458
Male
655
730
667
528
435
613
685
695
582
359
239
158
131
118
104
62
46
36
6842
2025
Female
674
699
652
550
484
708
790
732
635
363
251
137
178
143
120
102
89
80
7386
Total
1329
1430
1319
1078
919
1320
1475
1427
1217
722
490
294
310
261
224
164
135
116
14228
Male
683
761
695
550
453
638
714
724
606
374
249
164
137
122
109
65
48
37
7129
2030
Female
702
729
679
573
504
737
823
763
661
378
261
142
186
149
125
106
92
84
7696
Total
1385
1490
1374
1123
957
1376
1537
1487
1268
752
510
307
323
272
234
171
140
121
14825
Georgia Coast 2030
Male
576
642
587
464
382
539
602
611
512
316
210
139
115
103
92
55
40
31
6018
2015
Female
592
615
573
484
426
622
695
644
558
319
220
120
157
126
105
89
78
70
6496
Total
1169
1257
1160
948
808
1161
1297
1255
1070
635
431
259
272
229
197
144
118
102
12513
13
City of Pembroke
In 2000, the City of Pembroke’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 2,379 people.
According to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase
approximately 66% to 3,943 people by 2015. By 2030, the population is forecasted to reach
4,672, a 96% increase from 2000 (see Table 6a).
Table 6a - City of Pembroke Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
Georgia Coast 2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2,379
3,101
3,576
3,943
4,241
4,484
4,672
14
Bulloch County, GA
The Context of Population Change
The factors that affect population change include demographic trends (principally age
distribution and mortality rates), in- and out-migration rates, employment rates and other
economic activity, housing construction, land use patterns, and regional, national and global
trends. Population is also affected by factors whose impacts are not subject to easily captured
quantitative measurement, such as policy decisions or impressions about the development
potential of an area. We typically collect such information through anecdotal interviews with
stakeholders. The following chapter outlines the conditions impacting population trends in
Bulloch County, Georgia.
Historic Population Trends
Bulloch County has experienced a steadily rising rate of growth since the 1970s. During the
1970s, Bulloch grew at a modest 13%, followed by faster growth (20.5%) in the 1980s, and then
even faster growth (30%) in the 1990s (Figure 1b). The county’s largest incorporated city,
Statesboro, experienced single-digit growth rates in the 1970s and 1980s. During the 1990s,
however, population surged, and the city experienced a 43% growth rate.
Figure 1b - Bulloch County Historic Population
Bulloch County
60000
55000
50000
45000
people
40000
35000
30000
Population
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
year
The population growth in Bulloch County has been accompanied by a number of significant
demographic changes. For example, the median age has increased slightly since 1980, going
from 25 years of age in 1980 to 26.1 in 2000. County school enrollment data from the past
dozen years shows total enrollment increasing by 5% between fall 1994 and spring 2000 and
Georgia Coast 2030
15
increasing by 4.5% between fall 2000 and spring 2006. These school numbers reflect the
consistent population growth Bulloch has been experiencing in all age groups over the past few
years.
Economic Conditions
Interviews with local representatives indicate that Bulloch County has been able to attract
businesses to the area due to Georgia Southern University’s student population, the county’s
high quality of life and location, and a good school system. An examination of the types of
businesses in 2000, as measured by number of jobs in each sector (i.e. the local industry mix),
showed that nearly 50% of employment was located in the retail and service sectors. Woods
and Poole industry projections for 2030 (Table 1b) show retail growing the most of any sector,
with its share of industry mix expected to grow by more than 5.4%, to reach 28.9%. This growth
is offset by decreases in several sectors, most noticeably construction (-1.2%) and
manufacturing (-5.2%). In 2000, Bulloch County had 27,600 jobs, by 2030 that is number is
expected to increase to 43,000.
Table 1b - Bulloch County Industry Projections5
2000
2030
Change
Construction
7.2%
6.0%
-1.2%
Manufacturing
10.9%
5.8%
-5.2%
Retail
23.5%
28.9%
5.4%
Services
22.5%
23.4%
0.8%
State/ Local Govt
19.0%
21.7%
2.7%
Source: Woods and Poole Economics, Inc.
According to stakeholder interviewees, the main attraction for businesses that locate in the
county is Georgia Southern University and its student population.
Residential Construction
Residential construction is currently at a 10-year low in Bulloch County. Residential building
permits having declined by nearly 27% from 1995 to 2005. The City of Statesboro has also
seen decline in the number of residential permits from 2000 to 2005 (years for which numbers
are available).
Georgia Southern University and growth in the industrial base in the county were cited as
attractors for people moving to the area. Another reason cited for population growth and
accompanying residential construction was the fact that the East Georgia Regional Medical
Center is increasing medical staff and also spurring growth in other business sectors.
According to stakeholder interviews, growth is occurring within a one-mile radius of the City of
Brooklet and along the Highway 80 corridor between Statesboro and Brooklet. Migration is
flowing to the southeastern/southern areas of the county.
Reflecting demographic changes, the county is seeing an increase in families with young,
school-aged children and college students. This influx is fueling an increase primarily in single5
Woods and Poole Economics
Georgia Coast 2030
16
family attached and detached residential units and multi-family units, with more apartments
being built near and in the City of Statesboro that cater to students. According to interviewees,
residential construction may be slightly ahead of demand with many homes available on the
market. Interviewees gave varying predictions as to when build-out would occur in Statesboro;
ranging from 10 to 20 years, depending on redevelopment activity. It was also noted that large
land purchases have occurred at the southern end of the county, of which some is now
beginning to be developed.
Other Factors
Other factors are also influencing population change. For example, interviewees from the
county indicated that additional construction along the bypass could serve as a catalyst for
development due to increased accessibility. Also, the addition of the arts center and proposed
cultural and performing arts center in the downtown Statesboro may attract more people to the
downtown due to improved entertainment offerings. Refer to Section I: Regional Overview for a
brief summary of other factors that may influence population change in the Georgia coastal
region.
Bulloch County Population Projections to 2030
According to this study, Bulloch County’s population is projected to increase by 29%, from
55,983 people in 2000 to 72,388 by 2015. By 2030, the population is expected to reach 82,111
people, an increase of 47% over the 2000 population. By comparison, the State of Georgia
Office of Planning and Budget estimate for Bulloch County shows a 22% increase by the year
2015. The county’s population growth is driven primarily by the net gain in people moving into
the county, referred to as in-migration.
The Standard Methodology
The projected population is calculated using an inter-regional cohort component model, which
tracks population change by age and sex, using baseline population counts as well as birth,
death, and migration rates. This methodology is consistent with the widely accepted standard
followed in the use of the inter-regional cohort component model6. The model employed for
Bulloch County used population and migration data from the 2000 U.S. Census and the State of
Georgia’s county-specific birth and death rates. The use of data and analytical procedures are
specified in the Appendix.
Adjusting the Model with Local Data
Interviews with local representatives suggested that relatively fast population growth has
occurred in recent years. Therefore, the population model was adjusted to reflect the most
recent trends in housing building permit data from 2000 to 2005 provided by Bulloch County.
According to the county, approximately 4,200 building permits were issued during this period.
6
Isserman, Andrew M. (1993), “The Right People, The Right Places: Making Population Estimates with an Inter-regional Cohort
Component Model.” Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 59, No. 1.
Klosterman, Richard (1990), Community Analysis and Planning Techniques. Savage, Md., Rowman & Littlefield.
Georgia Coast 2030
17
The building permits, along with vacancy rates and average household size data from the 2000
U.S. Census, were used to generate a population estimate for 2005. In addition, 375 residents
were added into the model in 2010 to account for new on-campus residences planned by
Georgia Southern University. The result was an estimated county population of 65,445 people
in 2005. Using the unadjusted model, the 2005 population estimate was only 63,943 (see Table
2b). More details about the adjustment procedure are available in the Appendix.
Projection Results and Comparisons
Based on the adjusted projection model, Bulloch County’s population is expected to reach
82,111 by 2030. Table 2b shows the projected population (using the adjusted model described
above and in more detail in the Appendix), in comparison to the unadjusted cohort model and
the State of Georgia’s population estimates.
Table 2b - Bulloch County Population Projection to 2030
Projected Population
Unadjusted Cohort
Model
State of GA - OPB
Estimates*
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
55,983
65,445
68,618
72,388
75,507
79,475
82,111
55,983
63,943
66,027
68,796
71,187
74,567
77,176
55,983
61,454
64,275
68,235
Data Sources: U.S. Census 2000, Georgia Office of Planning and Budget (OPB), Georgia Division of Public Health Office of
Health Information and Policy, Bulloch County
Calculations for projected population and cohort model: Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development (Georgia
Tech)
*The State of Georgia Office of Planning and Budget only estimates county population for the years 2010 & 2015. U.S.
Census Bureau estimates were used for 2005.
Georgia Coast 2030
18
Table 3b documents the results of the adjusted projected population by age and sex in five-year
increments.
Table 3b - Bulloch County Population Projection, detailed summary
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
1,653
1,742
1,869
3,565
4,729
1,890
1,562
1,695
1,712
1,527
1,340
1,040
823
737
528
425
262
156
27,255
2000
Female
1,608
1,674
1,808
3,745
4,734
1,714
1,616
1,902
1,802
1,603
1,382
1,121
920
855
695
595
518
436
28,728
Total
3,261
3,416
3,677
7,310
9,463
3,604
3,178
3,597
3,514
3,130
2,722
2,161
1,743
1,592
1,223
1,020
780
592
55,983
Male
1,932
2,036
2,185
4,168
5,528
2,209
1,826
1,981
2,001
1,785
1,566
1,216
962
862
617
497
306
182
31,861
2005
Female
1,880
1,957
2,114
4,378
5,534
2,004
1,889
2,223
2,107
1,874
1,616
1,310
1,075
1,000
812
696
606
510
33,583
Total
3,812
3,993
4,298
8,545
11,062
4,213
3,715
4,205
4,108
3,659
3,182
2,526
2,038
1,861
1,430
1,192
912
692
65,445
Male
2,011
2,119
2,274
4,444
5,894
2,299
1,900
2,062
2,083
1,858
1,630
1,265
1,001
897
642
517
319
190
33,406
2010
Female
1,955
2,035
2,198
4,680
5,916
2,084
1,965
2,312
2,191
1,949
1,680
1,363
1,118
1,039
845
723
630
530
35,212
Total
3,966
4,154
4,472
9,123
11,810
4,383
3,865
4,374
4,273
3,806
3,310
2,628
2,120
1,936
1,487
1,240
948
720
68,618
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
2,214
2,334
2,504
4,882
6,476
2,532
2,093
2,271
2,294
2,046
1,795
1,393
1,103
987
707
569
351
209
36,760
2020
Female
2,153
2,241
2,420
5,141
6,498
2,295
2,163
2,546
2,412
2,146
1,850
1,501
1,232
1,145
930
797
693
584
38,747
Total
4,367
4,575
4,924
10,023
12,975
4,827
4,256
4,817
4,706
4,192
3,645
2,894
2,334
2,132
1,638
1,366
1,044
793
75,507
Male
2,332
2,457
2,636
5,135
6,811
2,666
2,203
2,391
2,415
2,154
1,890
1,467
1,161
1,040
745
599
370
220
38,692
2025
Female
2,267
2,360
2,549
5,406
6,834
2,416
2,278
2,681
2,540
2,260
1,948
1,580
1,297
1,205
980
839
730
615
40,783
Total
4,598
4,817
5,185
10,541
13,645
5,082
4,481
5,072
4,955
4,413
3,838
3,047
2,458
2,245
1,724
1,438
1,100
835
79,475
Male
2,409
2,539
2,724
5,303
7,034
2,755
2,277
2,471
2,495
2,226
1,953
1,516
1,200
1,074
770
619
382
227
39,975
2030
Female
2,342
2,438
2,634
5,582
7,057
2,497
2,354
2,771
2,625
2,335
2,013
1,633
1,340
1,245
1,012
867
755
635
42,136
Total
4,752
4,978
5,358
10,885
14,091
5,252
4,631
5,241
5,120
4,561
3,966
3,149
2,540
2,320
1,782
1,486
1,136
863
82,111
Georgia Coast 2030
Male
2,122
2,236
2,399
4,688
6,218
2,426
2,005
2,175
2,197
1,960
1,720
1,335
1,056
946
678
545
336
200
35,241
2015
Female
2,063
2,148
2,320
4,932
6,235
2,199
2,073
2,440
2,312
2,057
1,773
1,438
1,180
1,097
892
763
665
559
37,146
Total
4,185
4,384
4,718
9,620
12,453
4,625
4,078
4,616
4,509
4,016
3,493
2,773
2,237
2,043
1,569
1,309
1,001
760
72,388
19
Population Forecast for
Bulloch County’s Incorporated Cities
Following are population forecasts for the incorporated cities located in Bulloch County. The
constant share method was employed. The constant share method uses the city’s 2000 share
of county population and holds that share constant against the projected county population.
This model was adjusted to reflect current building trends using certificate of occupancy data
from 2001 to 2005 provided by the city. This method was used because data used to project
the county population are not enumerated at the city level. This method estimates the city’s
population as a percentage of the county population, increasing it at the same rate. This
estimation technique is based on U.S. Census 2000 data and city boundaries as of 2000. See
the Appendix for a more detailed description of the forecasting methodology.
It is important to note that population estimates for cities are very challenging; therefore, they
may be less accurate than county population projections. These difficulties reflect the fact that
there is limited data available at the city scale, annexations can drastically change land
availability, and land use/zoning policy changes can increase the intensity of land development.
City of Brooklet
In 2000, the City of Brooklet’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 1,113. According
to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately
29% to 1,439 people by 2015. By 2030, the population is forecasted to reach 1,632, a 47%
increase from 2000 (see Table 4b).
Table 4b - City of Brooklet Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
1,113
1,301
1,364
1,439
1,501
1,580
1,632
City of Portal
In 2000, the City of Portal’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 597. According to
the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately
29% to 772 people by 2015. By 2030, the population is forecasted to reach 876, a 47% increase
from 2000 (see Table 5b).
Table 5b - City of Portal Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
Georgia Coast 2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
597
698
732
772
805
848
876
20
City of Register
In 2000, the City of Register’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 164. According to
the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately
29% to 212 people by 2015. By 2030, the population is forecasted to reach 241, a 47% increase
from 2000 (see Table 6b).
Table 6b - City of Register Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
164
192
201
212
221
233
241
City of Statesboro
In 2000, the City of Statesboro’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 22,698.
According to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase
approximately 29% to 29,349 people by 2015. By 2030, the population is forecasted to reach
33,291, a 47% increase from 2000 (see Table 7b).
Table 7b - City of Statesboro Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
22,698
26,534
27,821
29,349
30,614
32,223
33,291
Detailed age and sex cohort forecasts were done for the City of Statesboro (Table 8b). To
calculate these forecasts, the age and sex cohort allocation from the 2000 census is assumed
to stay constant and is used to allocate population forecasts to specific cohorts.
Georgia Coast 2030
21
Table 8b - City of Statesboro Detailed Cohort Forecasts to 2030
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
456
505
462
2,072
2,986
770
476
434
434
373
330
288
259
267
215
166
106
60
10,660
2000
Female
441
470
465
2,445
2,956
665
510
536
456
424
384
387
363
324
388
309
275
239
12,038
Total
898
975
927
4,517
5,942
1,435
986
970
890
798
714
676
622
591
603
474
381
299
22,698
Male
534
591
540
2422
3491
900
557
507
507
437
386
337
303
312
252
194
124
70
12462
2005
Female
516
549
544
2858
3455
778
596
627
533
496
449
453
425
379
453
361
322
280
14072
Total
1049
1140
1084
5280
6946
1678
1152
1134
1041
932
834
790
727
691
705
554
445
350
26534
Male
559
619
566
2539
3660
944
584
532
532
458
404
353
317
327
264
203
130
74
13066
2010
Female
541
576
570
2997
3623
815
625
657
559
520
471
475
445
397
475
378
337
293
14754
Total
1100
1195
1137
5536
7283
1759
1208
1189
1091
978
875
828
762
725
739
581
467
367
27821
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
616
682
623
2794
4028
1039
642
585
585
504
445
389
349
360
291
223
143
81
14378
2020
Female
595
634
628
3298
3986
897
687
723
615
572
518
522
490
437
523
416
371
323
16236
Total
1211
1315
1251
6092
8014
1936
1330
1308
1201
1076
963
911
839
797
814
640
514
404
30614
Male
648
717
656
2941
4239
1093
676
616
616
530
468
409
368
379
306
235
150
85
15134
2025
Female
626
667
661
3471
4196
944
723
761
648
602
545
550
516
460
551
438
391
340
17089
Total
1274
1384
1317
6412
8435
2037
1399
1377
1264
1132
1013
959
883
839
856
673
541
425
32223
Male
669
741
678
3039
4380
1129
698
636
637
548
484
423
380
392
316
243
155
88
15636
2030
Female
647
689
683
3586
4335
976
747
786
669
622
563
568
533
475
569
453
404
351
17656
Total
1316
1430
1360
6625
8715
2105
1446
1423
1306
1170
1047
991
912
867
885
695
559
439
33291
Georgia Coast 2030
Male
590
654
597
2679
3861
996
616
561
561
483
427
373
335
345
279
214
137
78
13784
2015
Female
570
607
602
3161
3822
860
659
693
590
548
496
501
470
419
502
399
356
309
15565
Total
1161
1261
1199
5840
7683
1856
1275
1254
1151
1031
923
874
804
764
780
613
493
387
29349
22
Camden County, GA
The Context of Population Change
The factors that affect population change include demographic trends (principally age
distribution and mortality rates), in- and out-migration rates, employment rates and other
economic activity, housing construction, land use patterns, and regional, national and global
trends. Population is also affected by factors whose impacts are not subject to easily captured
quantitative measurement, such as policy decisions or impressions about the development
potential of an area. We typically collect such information through anecdotal interviews with
stakeholders. The following chapter outlines the conditions impacting population trends in
Camden County, Georgia.
Historic Population Trends
Camden County has experienced the majority of its growth since the 1980s. While the 1970s
showed modest population growth of 18%, population growth in the 1980s exploded to a
staggering 126%. While population growth rates slowed in the 1990s, they continued to be
strong, with a population growth of 45% between 1990 and 2000 (Figure 1c). For the most part,
the three incorporated cities in Camden County, St. Marys, Kingsland, and Woodbine, have
followed the population trends of the county. All three cities experienced their biggest
population increases in the 1980s. During the 1990s, however, Kingsland continued rapidly
gaining population, while Woodbine’s population remained virtually unchanged. Interviewees
commented that the 2000 census population count for the county was probably low, but the
number was never officially challenged. It is thought that the 2005 estimate was probably more
accurate for 2000.
Georgia Coast 2030
23
Figure 1c - Camden County Historic Population
Camden County
45000
40000
35000
people
30000
25000
Population
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
year
The population growth in Camden County has been accompanied by a number of significant
demographic changes. For example, the median age has increased slightly since 1980 going
from 27 years of age in 1980 to 28.2 in 2000. County school enrollment data from the past ten
years shows total enrollment increasing by approximately 17.5% between fall 1995 and spring
2000 and decreasing by around 0.5% between fall 2000 and spring 2005. This recent slight
decline in school enrollment despite the continued population growth may reflect the county’s
increasing popularity among older residents seeking retirement communities and among
families and individuals (particularly military) with no school age children.
Economic Conditions
Interviews with local representatives indicate that Camden County has been having some
success recently attracting new businesses to the county, while the cities have had varying
degrees of success. An examination of the types of businesses in 2000, as measured by
number of jobs in each sector (i.e. the local industry mix), showed a heavy reliance on the
county’s military base, with nearly 35% of employment in a combination of two government
sectors: federal civilian and federal military. Woods and Poole industry projections for 2030
(Table 1c) show services growing the most of any sector, with its share of industry mix expected
to grow by 15%, to reach 34.9%. This growth is offset by decreases in several sectors, most
notably federal military (-5.5%), manufacturing (-4.4%), and state and local government (-1.8%).
In 2000, Camden County had 22,500 jobs, by 2030 that is number is expected to increase to
32,000.
Georgia Coast 2030
24
Table 1c - Camden County Industry Projections
2000
2030
Change
Federal
Civilian
10.9%
10.0%
-0.9%
Federal
Military
23.8%
18.3%
-5.5%
Manufacturing
Retail
Services
State/ Local Govt
8.1%
3.7%
-4.4%
16.4%
15.0%
-1.4%
19.8%
34.9%
15.0%
10.2%
8.4%
-1.8%
Source: Woods and Poole Economics, Inc.
According to stakeholder interviewees, the main attractions for businesses that locate in the
county are proximity to Jacksonville International Airport, the Brunswick port, Coastal Georgia
Community College, and the school system. Challenges include an over-reliance on the military
creating a lack of economic diversification, a lack of a skilled or appropriately skilled workforce,
and water/sewer capacity.
Residential Construction
Residential construction is currently on the rise in Camden County, with some of the cities
seeing an all-time high. Certificates of occupancy and building permits followed a similar trend.
Interviewees noted a growing diversity of people moving to the county, particularly in recent
years. They characterized this population as being primarily families with and without children
and retirees attracted to the county because of land prices, the military base, and climate. In
response to this changing population, the county is seeing an increase in both single-family
detached and attached houses. Second homes are also increasing and mobile homes continue
to be constructed, though not in large numbers and primarily serving as affordable housing.
There is a perception that residential development is keeping pace with demand particularly for
high-end units, but failing to meet the demand for mid- to low-range single-family homes.
Another potential reason the area is attracting development is the availability of land; however,
interviewees noted concerns that the water/sewer capabilities of some cities will be unable to
keep pace with new development in the coming years. Growth in the county could be
significantly impacted if discussions regarding county-wide water and sewer infrastructure move
forward.
Other Factors
Refer to Section I: Regional Overview for a brief summary of other factors that may influence
population change in the Georgia coastal region.
Camden County Population Projections to 2030
According to this study, Camden County’s population is projected to increase by 43%, from
43,664 people in 2000 to 62,257 by 2015. By 2030, the population is expected to reach 70,997
people, an increase of 63% over the 2000 population. In comparison, the State of Georgia
Office of Planning and Budget estimate for Camden County shows a 21% increase by the year
2015. The county’s population growth is driven primarily by the net gain in people moving into
the county, referred to as in-migration.
Georgia Coast 2030
25
The Standard Methodology
The projected population is calculated using an inter-regional cohort component model, which
tracks population change by age and sex, using baseline population counts as well as birth,
death, and migration rates. This methodology is consistent with the widely accepted standard
followed in the use of the inter-regional cohort component model7. The model employed for
Camden County used population and migration data from the 2000 U.S. Census and the State
of Georgia’s county-specific birth and death rates. The use of data and analytical procedures
are specified in the Appendix.
Adjusting the Model with Local Data
Interviews with local representatives suggested relatively fast population growth has occurred in
recent years. The population model was adjusted to reflect the most recent data based on
certificates of occupancy and building permit data provided by the county and the cities8.
Additionally, three new submarines have been stationed at the Kings Bay Naval Submarine
Base in St. Mary’s. One of these, USS Florida, arrived in 2005; USS Georgia is scheduled to
arrive in 2007 and USS Alaska is expected in 2008. The model was adjusted to account for the
arrival of the submarine crews and their families.
The certificates of occupancy, vacancy rates, and average household size data from the 2000
U.S. Census were used to generate a population estimate for 2005. The result was an
estimated county population of 51,558 people in 2005. Using the unadjusted model, the 2005
population estimate was only 50,035 (see Table 2c).
Projection Results and Comparisons
Based on the adjusted projection model, Camden County’s population is expected to reach
70,997 by 2030. Table 2c shows the projected population (using the adjusted model described
above and in more detail in the Appendix), in comparison to the unadjusted cohort model and
the State of Georgia’s population estimates.
Table 2c - Camden County Population Projection to 2030
Projected Population
Unadjusted Cohort
Model
State of GA - OPB
Estimates*
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
43,664
51,558
58,251
62,257
65,453
68,382
70,997
43,664
50,035
55,049
59,270
62,604
65,530
68,134
43,664
45,759
49,896
52,824
53,941
55,572
57,011
Data Sources: U.S. Census 2000, Georgia Office of Planning and Budget (OPB), Georgia Division of Public Health Office of
Health Information and Policy, Camden County
Calculations for projected population and cohort model: Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development (Georgia
Tech)
*The State of Georgia Office of Planning and Budget only estimates county population for the years 2010 & 2015. U.S.
Census Bureau estimates were used for 2005.
7
Isserman, Andrew M. (1993), “The Right People, The Right Places: Making Population Estimates with an Inter-regional Cohort
Component Model.” Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 59, No. 1.
Klosterman, Richard (1990), Community Analysis and Planning Techniques. Savage, Md., Rowman & Littlefield.
8
Data provided by Coastal Market Graphics were considered in model calibration.
Georgia Coast 2030
26
Table 3c documents the results of the adjusted projected population by age and sex in five-year
increments.
Table 3c - Camden County Population Projection, detailed summary
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
1,920
2,064
2,011
1,826
2,718
2,005
1,888
1,987
1,600
1,220
1,079
718
548
354
319
172
83
54
22,566
2000
Female
1,884
1,884
1,978
1,624
1,574
1,766
1,844
1,965
1,732
1,284
997
750
521
435
304
252
169
135
21,098
Total
3,804
3,948
3,989
3,450
4,292
3,771
3,732
3,952
3,332
2,504
2,076
1,468
1,069
789
623
424
252
189
43,664
Male
2,298
1,954
2,096
2,127
2,395
3,718
2,120
1,953
1,851
1,657
1,439
1,204
845
643
361
279
138
95
27,174
2005
Female
1,800
1,907
1,935
2,113
1,916
2,079
1,879
1,943
1,876
1,815
1,461
1,091
846
610
432
273
220
187
24,384
Total
4,098
3,861
4,031
4,240
4,311
5,798
3,999
3,897
3,726
3,472
2,899
2,296
1,691
1,253
793
552
359
281
51,558
Male
2,445
2,370
2,109
2,140
2,794
3,703
2,891
2,091
1,806
1,775
1,793
1,537
1,267
941
598
313
201
142
30,915
2010
Female
1,994
1,859
2,021
2,050
2,385
2,342
2,124
1,979
1,839
1,877
1,884
1,492
1,146
926
585
361
234
239
27,336
Total
4,439
4,229
4,129
4,190
5,179
6,046
5,015
4,070
3,644
3,652
3,677
3,030
2,413
1,866
1,183
673
435
381
58,251
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
2,461
2,510
2,432
2,376
2,436
3,463
2,939
2,592
2,210
1,801
1,801
1,861
1,809
1,593
1,155
682
335
229
34,685
2020
Female
2,030
2,026
2,107
2,163
2,228
2,307
2,301
2,284
2,047
1,864
1,846
1,816
1,762
1,508
1,085
682
392
321
30,768
Total
4,491
4,536
4,539
4,538
4,664
5,770
5,240
4,876
4,257
3,665
3,647
3,677
3,571
3,101
2,239
1,364
727
550
65,453
Male
2,540
2,456
2,500
2,468
2,604
3,648
2,744
2,628
2,267
2,050
1,872
1,808
1,807
1,795
1,383
897
466
306
36,237
2025
Female
2,076
2,018
2,158
2,273
2,271
2,439
2,169
2,337
2,136
2,030
1,879
1,766
1,725
1,730
1,338
846
554
400
32,145
Total
4,615
4,473
4,658
4,741
4,875
6,087
4,913
4,965
4,403
4,080
3,751
3,573
3,532
3,525
2,721
1,742
1,020
706
68,382
Male
2,557
2,534
2,498
2,537
2,714
3,851
2,907
2,488
2,299
2,113
2,108
1,876
1,755
1,772
1,538
1,065
602
416
37,630
2030
Female
2,103
2,063
2,180
2,332
2,384
2,527
2,307
2,227
2,180
2,119
2,041
1,798
1,676
1,677
1,509
1,028
681
535
33,367
Total
4,660
4,597
4,678
4,869
5,098
6,378
5,214
4,715
4,479
4,232
4,149
3,673
3,432
3,450
3,047
2,092
1,283
951
70,997
Georgia Coast 2030
Male
2,515
2,439
2,350
2,187
2,348
3,805
2,891
2,549
1,899
1,727
1,854
1,835
1,567
1,315
855
485
224
194
33,038
2015
Female
2,039
1,982
1,996
2,142
2,123
2,498
2,227
2,186
1,871
1,832
1,897
1,832
1,492
1,199
858
477
300
269
29,218
Total
4,554
4,421
4,346
4,329
4,470
6,303
5,118
4,735
3,770
3,559
3,750
3,667
3,059
2,514
1,712
962
524
463
62,257
27
Population Forecast for
Camden County’s Incorporated Cities
Following are population forecasts for the incorporated cities located in Camden County. The
constant share method was employed. The constant share method uses the city’s 2000 share
of county population and holds that share constant against the projected county population.
This model was adjusted to reflect current building trends using certificate of occupancy data
from 2001 to 2005 provided by the city. This method was used because data used to project
the county population are not enumerated at the city level. This method estimates the city’s
population as a percentage of the county population, increasing it at the same rate. This
estimation technique is based on U.S. Census 2000 data and city boundaries as of 2000. See
the Appendix for a more detailed description of the forecasting methodology.
It is important to note that population estimates for cities are very challenging; therefore, they
may be less accurate than county population projections. These difficulties reflect the fact that
there is limited data available at the city scale, annexations can drastically change land
availability, and land use/zoning policy changes can increase the intensity of land development.
City of Kingsland
In 2000, the City of Kingsland’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 10,506.
According to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase
approximately 58.5% to 16,658 people by 2015. By 2030, the population is forecasted to reach
18,996, an 81% increase from 2000 (see Table 4c).
Table 4c - City of Kingsland Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
10,506
13,765
15,586
16,658
17,513
18,296
18,996
Detailed age and sex cohort forecasts were done for the City of Kingsland (Table 5c). To
calculate these forecasts, the age and sex cohort allocation from the 2000 census is assumed
to stay constant and is used to allocate population forecasts to specific cohorts.
Georgia Coast 2030
28
Table 5c – City of Kingsland Detailed Cohort Forecasts to 2030
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
583
522
422
358
554
695
566
462
342
234
175
96
84
67
41
35
18
7
5,260
2000
Female
551
506
430
349
595
602
548
422
362
241
142
139
84
89
58
62
40
25
5,246
Total
1,134
1,028
852
707
1,148
1,297
1,113
884
705
475
317
236
168
156
99
97
58
33
10,506
Male
765
685
554
470
727
913
743
607
450
307
229
126
110
88
54
46
23
9
6,907
2005
Female
724
665
565
458
781
791
719
554
476
316
187
183
111
117
76
81
52
33
6,888
Total
1,489
1,350
1,119
929
1,508
1,703
1,462
1,161
926
624
416
309
221
204
130
127
76
43
13,795
Male
864
774
626
531
822
1,031
839
686
508
347
259
143
124
99
61
52
26
11
7,804
2010
Female
818
751
638
518
882
893
813
626
538
357
211
207
125
132
86
92
59
37
7,782
Total
1,682
1,525
1,264
1,049
1,704
1,925
1,652
1,311
1,046
705
470
350
249
231
147
143
85
48
15,586
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
971
870
703
597
923
1,159
943
770
571
390
291
160
139
111
69
58
30
12
8,769
2020
Female
919
844
717
582
991
1,004
913
703
604
401
237
232
141
148
96
103
66
42
8,744
Total
1,890
1,713
1,420
1,179
1,914
2,162
1,856
1,473
1,175
792
529
393
280
259
165
161
96
54
17,513
Male
1,015
909
735
624
964
1,210
985
805
596
408
304
168
146
116
72
61
31
13
9,161
2025
Female
960
881
749
608
1,036
1,049
954
734
631
419
248
243
147
155
100
107
69
44
9,136
Total
1,975
1,790
1,484
1,232
2,000
2,259
1,939
1,539
1,228
827
552
410
293
271
173
168
100
57
18,296
Male
1,053
943
763
648
1,001
1,257
1,023
836
619
423
316
174
151
121
75
63
32
13
9,511
2030
Female
997
915
778
631
1,075
1,089
991
762
655
435
257
252
153
161
104
112
72
46
9,485
Total
2,050
1,859
1,540
1,279
2,077
2,346
2,013
1,598
1,275
859
573
426
304
281
179
175
104
59
18,996
Male
924
827
669
568
878
1,102
897
733
543
371
277
153
133
106
66
55
28
11
8,340
2015
Female
874
802
682
554
943
955
869
669
575
382
226
221
134
141
91
98
63
40
8,317
Total
1,798
1,630
1,351
1,121
1,821
2,057
1,765
1,401
1,118
753
503
374
266
247
157
153
91
52
16,658
City of St. Marys
In 2000, the City of St Marys’ population as reported in the U.S. Census was 13,761. According
to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately
44% to 19,808 people by 2015. By 2030, the population is forecasted to reach 22,589, a 64%
increase from 2000 (see Table 6c).
Table 6c - City of St Marys Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
Georgia Coast 2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
13,761
16,404
18,533
19,808
20,825
21,757
22,589
29
Detailed age and sex cohort forecasts were done for the City of St. Marys (Table 7c). To
calculate these forecasts, the age and sex cohort allocation from the 2000 census is assumed
to stay constant and is used to allocate population forecasts to specific cohorts.
Table 7c – City of St. Marys Detailed Cohort Forecasts to 2030
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
706
698
636
428
601
762
669
580
478
332
268
195
167
117
80
45
27
15
6,805
2000
Female
684
633
583
509
635
730
678
616
491
350
257
215
162
119
98
79
67
52
6,956
Total
1,390
1,331
1,219
937
1,236
1,492
1,347
1,196
969
682
525
410
329
236
178
124
94
68
13,761
Male
841
832
758
510
716
909
798
691
570
395
319
233
199
140
96
53
32
18
8,111
2005
Female
816
754
695
607
757
870
808
734
585
418
306
256
193
142
116
94
79
62
8,293
Total
1,657
1,586
1,453
1,117
1,473
1,778
1,606
1,425
1,155
813
626
489
392
282
212
147
112
81
16,404
Male
950
940
856
576
809
1,027
902
781
644
447
361
263
225
158
108
60
37
21
9,164
2010
Female
922
852
785
685
856
983
913
830
661
472
346
289
218
160
131
106
90
70
9,369
Total
1,872
1,792
1,642
1,262
1,665
2,009
1,815
1,610
1,305
919
707
552
443
318
240
166
126
91
18,533
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
1,068
1,056
962
647
909
1,154
1,013
877
724
502
406
296
253
177
122
67
41
23
10,297
2020
Female
1,036
958
882
770
961
1,104
1,026
932
743
530
389
325
245
180
148
119
101
79
10,527
Total
2,103
2,014
1,845
1,418
1,871
2,258
2,039
1,810
1,467
1,032
795
620
498
357
269
187
142
102
20,825
Male
1,116
1,104
1,005
676
950
1,205
1,058
917
756
524
424
309
264
185
127
70
43
24
10,758
2025
Female
1,082
1,000
922
805
1,004
1,153
1,072
974
776
554
406
339
256
188
154
125
105
83
10,999
Total
2,198
2,104
1,927
1,481
1,954
2,359
2,130
1,890
1,532
1,078
830
648
520
373
281
195
148
107
21,757
Male
1,158
1,146
1,044
702
986
1,251
1,099
952
785
544
440
321
274
192
132
73
44
25
11,170
2030
Female
1,123
1,039
957
835
1,043
1,198
1,113
1,011
805
575
422
352
266
195
160
130
109
86
11,419
Total
2,282
2,185
2,001
1,538
2,029
2,449
2,212
1,963
1,591
1,120
862
673
540
388
292
203
154
111
22,589
Georgia Coast 2030
Male
1,016
1,005
915
616
865
1,097
964
835
689
477
386
281
240
169
116
64
39
22
9,795
2015
Female
985
911
839
733
914
1,050
976
887
706
505
370
309
233
171
140
114
96
75
10,013
Total
2,001
1,916
1,754
1,348
1,779
2,147
1,940
1,721
1,395
982
756
590
473
340
256
178
135
97
19,808
30
City of Woodbine
In 2000, the City of Woodbine’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 1,218.
According to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase
approximately 42.6% to 1,737 people by 2015. By 2030, the population is forecasted to reach
1,980, a 62.5% increase from 2000 (see Table 8c).
Table 8c – City of Woodbine Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
Georgia Coast 2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
1,218
1,438
1,625
1,737
1,826
1,908
1,980
31
Chatham County, GA
The Context of Population Change
The factors that affect population change include demographic trends (principally age
distribution and mortality rates), in- and out-migration rates, employment rates and other
economic activity, housing construction, land use patterns, and regional, national and global
trends. Population is also affected by factors whose impacts are not subject to easily captured
quantitative measurement, such as policy decisions or impressions about the development
potential of an area. We typically collect such information through anecdotal interviews with
stakeholders. The following chapter outlines the conditions impacting population trends in
Chatham County, Georgia.
Historic Population Trends
Chatham County has been experiencing slight population growth since the 1970s. In each
decade between 1970 and 2000, Chatham County grew between 7% and 8% (Figure 1d). The
county’s largest incorporated city, Savannah, has not experienced a similar growth rate.
Specifically, after seeing 20% population growth in the 1970s, the city actually shrunk by single
digits in both the 1980s and 1990s. However interviews with local officials indicate that
Savannah has grown over the past few years and is expected to continue to do so in the near
future. The other incorporated cities in the county are also expected to increase in population
due to several planned communities already under construction.
Figure 1d - Chatham County Historic Population
Chatham County
250000
225000
200000
people
175000
150000
125000
Population
100000
75000
50000
25000
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
year
Georgia Coast 2030
32
The population growth in Chatham County has been accompanied by a number of significant
demographic changes. For example, the median age has increased steadily since 1980, going
from 29 years of age in 1980 to 34.4 in 2000. County school enrollment data from the past ten
years shows total enrollment increasing by 1.7% between fall 1994 and spring 2000. However,
it decreased 3.5% between fall 2000 and spring 2006. This recent decline in school enrollment
despite the continued population growth may reflect the county’s increasing popularity among
older residents seeking retirement communities and among families and individuals with no
school-age children.
Economic Conditions
Interviews with local representatives indicate that Chatham County’s job base continues to grow
and prospects are good for that pattern to persist in the future. An examination of the types of
businesses in 2000, as measured by number of jobs in each sector (i.e. the local industry mix),
showed that over 50% of employment is concentrated in two sectors: retail and services.
Woods and Poole industry projections for 2030 (Table 1d) show services growing the most of
any sector, with its share of industry mix expected to grow by more than 7%, to a 40.5% share.
But this growth is likely to be offset by decreases in several sectors, most noticeably
construction (-1.5%) and manufacturing (-4.3%). In 2000, Chatham County had 156,000 jobs,
by 2030 that is number is expected to increase to 202,000.
Table 1d - Chatham County Industry Projections
2000
2030
Change
Construction
6.3%
4.8%
-1.5%
Manufacturing
10.0%
5.6%
-4.3%
Retail
19.6%
21.9%
2.4%
Services
32.9%
40.5%
7.6%
State/ Local Govt
9.2%
8.8%
-0.4%
Source: Woods and Poole Economics, Inc.
According to stakeholder interviewees, the main attraction for businesses that locate in the
county is transportation accessibility provided by the Port of Savannah, as well as Interstates 95
and 16. However, some stakeholders did express concern that high taxes and a lack of
available land could dampen economic growth in the future.
Residential Construction
Residential construction is currently at its highest point in recent years in Chatham County.
Building permits have increased significantly every year since 2002.
According to interviews, the quality of life of Chatham County is one of the strongest attractors
for new residents. Additionally, interviewees believed that the healthy economy, which was
discussed in the previous section, is contributing to population growth. Interviewees also
reported that recent growth in the population could be attributed to retirees relocating to the area.
However there is a perception that residential development is slightly exceeding the demand for
housing now that national residential developers are becoming active in the area.
Other Factors
Refer to Section I: Regional Overview for a brief summary of other factors that may influence
population change in the Georgia coastal region.
Georgia Coast 2030
33
Chatham County Population Projections to 2030
According to this study, Chatham County’s population is projected to increase by 18.5%, from
232,048 people in 2000 to 275,057 in 2015. By 2030, the population is expected to reach
307,472, an increase of 32.5% over the 2000 population. In comparison, the State of Georgia
Office of Planning and Budget estimate for Chatham County shows a 7.5% increase by the year
2015. The county’s population growth is driven primarily by the net gain in people moving into
the county, referred to as in-migration.
The Standard Methodology
The projected population is calculated using an inter-regional cohort component model, which
tracks population change by age and sex, using baseline population counts as well as birth,
death, and migration rates. This methodology is consistent with the widely accepted standard
followed in the use of the inter-regional cohort component model9. The model employed for
Chatham County used population and migration data from the 2000 U.S. Census and the State
of Georgia’s county-specific birth and death rates. The use of data and analytical procedures
are specified in the Appendix.
Adjusting the Model with Local Data
Interviews with local representatives suggested a recent surge in construction. Therefore, the
population model was adjusted to reflect the most recent trends in housing construction and inmigration. This adjustment was made using residential building permit data from 2000 to 2005
provided by Chatham County10. According to the county, approximately 8,700 permits were
issued during this period.
Residential building permits, along with vacancy rates and average household size data from
the 2000 U.S. Census, were used to generate a population estimate for 2005. The result was an
estimated county population of 248,084 people in 2005. Before this adjustment was made, the
2005 population estimate was 236,778 (see Table 2d).
Projection Results and Comparisons
Based on the adjusted projection model, Chatham County’s population is expected to reach
307,472 by 2030. Table 2d shows the projected population (using the adjusted model described
above and in more detail in the Appendix), in comparison to the unadjusted cohort model and
the State of Georgia’s population estimates.
9
Isserman, Andrew M. (1993), “The Right People, The Right Places: Making Population Estimates with an Inter-regional Cohort
Component Model.” Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 59, No. 1.
Klosterman, Richard (1990), Community Analysis and Planning Techniques. Savage, Md., Rowman & Littlefield.
10
Data provided by Coastal Market Graphics were considered in model calibration.
Georgia Coast 2030
34
Table 2d - Chatham County Population Projection to 2030
Projected Population
Unadjusted Cohort
Model
State of GA - OPB
Estimates*
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
232,048
248,084
262,138
275,057
286,869
297,352
307,472
232,048
236,778
241,710
247,067
252,632
257,852
263,684
232,048
238,410
244,446
249,580
Data Sources: U.S. Census 2000, Georgia Office of Planning and Budget (OPB), Georgia Division of Public Health Office of
Health Information and Policy, Chatham County
Calculations for projected population and cohort model: Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development (Georgia
Tech)
*The State of Georgia Office of Planning and Budget only estimates county population for the years 2010 & 2015. U.S.
Census Bureau estimates were used for 2005.
Table 3d documents the results of the adjusted projected population by age and sex in five-year
increments.
Table 3d – Chatham County Population Projection, detailed summary
Age
Male
8,041
Under 5
8,454
5-9
8,414
10 - 14
8,438
15 - 19
9,518
20 - 24
8,837
25 - 29
7,999
30 - 34
8,489
35 - 39
8,350
40 - 44
7,265
45 - 49
6,722
50 - 54
5,140
55 - 59
4,132
60 - 64
3,708
65 - 69
3,238
70 - 74
2,560
75 - 79
1,527
80 - 85
958
85 +
Total 111,790
2000
Female
7,622
8,246
7,959
8,074
9,317
8,761
8,171
8,837
9,036
8,136
7,555
5,847
4,918
4,332
4,426
3,899
2,648
2,474
120,258
Total
15,663
16,700
16,373
16,512
18,835
17,598
16,170
17,326
17,386
15,401
14,277
10,987
9,050
8,040
7,664
6,459
4,175
3,432
232,048
Male
7,932
7,989
7,973
8,372
8,909
11,195
9,111
7,524
8,207
8,418
7,403
6,929
5,479
4,329
3,507
2,748
1,955
1,675
119,657
2005
Female
7,322
7,589
8,109
8,245
8,252
10,439
9,162
7,893
8,751
9,311
8,561
8,060
6,451
5,323
4,343
3,978
3,248
3,390
128,427
Total
15,254
15,579
16,082
16,618
17,161
21,634
18,273
15,418
16,958
17,728
15,964
14,988
11,930
9,652
7,850
6,726
5,203
5,065
248,084
Male
8,075
7,881
7,776
7,933
8,877
11,045
10,663
8,206
7,476
8,146
8,314
7,647
7,072
5,695
4,118
2,975
2,070
2,208
126,178
2010
Female
7,563
7,290
7,758
8,264
8,399
10,011
10,445
8,557
7,976
8,914
9,536
9,090
8,505
6,938
5,311
3,954
3,283
4,168
135,961
Total
15,638
15,172
15,534
16,197
17,275
21,055
21,108
16,763
15,451
17,060
17,850
16,737
15,577
12,633
9,429
6,929
5,353
6,376
262,138
Age
Male
8,401
Under 5
8,245
5-9
7,996
10 - 14
8,000
15 - 19
8,525
20 - 24
10,494
25 - 29
10,829
30 - 34
9,511
35 - 39
8,935
40 - 44
7,967
45 - 49
7,450
50 - 54
8,016
55 - 59
8,446
60 - 64
7,878
65 - 69
6,629
70 - 74
4,597
75 - 79
2,667
80 - 85
2,756
85 +
Total 137,342
2020
Female
7,883
7,620
7,909
8,096
8,316
9,830
10,489
9,652
9,405
8,673
8,430
9,384
10,284
9,898
8,595
6,248
4,022
4,791
149,527
Total
16,284
15,864
15,905
16,096
16,840
20,324
21,318
19,164
18,340
16,641
15,880
17,400
18,731
17,776
15,224
10,845
6,690
7,547
286,869
Male
8,342
8,347
8,215
8,242
8,719
10,896
10,310
9,575
9,176
8,834
7,827
7,542
8,017
8,389
7,360
5,574
3,491
3,191
142,045
2025
Female
7,722
7,849
8,037
8,406
8,413
10,152
10,119
9,755
9,567
9,540
8,828
8,795
9,672
10,523
9,614
7,667
5,208
5,440
155,307
Total
16,063
16,196
16,252
16,648
17,132
21,048
20,429
19,330
18,742
18,374
16,655
16,337
17,688
18,912
16,974
13,241
8,699
8,631
297,352
Male
8,617
8,288
8,352
8,470
9,026
11,297
10,843
9,154
9,261
9,107
8,638
7,893
7,596
7,939
7,786
6,203
4,192
4,000
146,662
2030
Female
8,092
7,688
8,272
8,569
8,755
10,465
10,611
9,413
9,681
9,759
9,671
9,168
9,121
9,867
10,142
8,571
6,315
6,651
160,810
Total
16,709
15,976
16,624
17,039
17,781
21,762
21,454
18,567
18,941
18,866
18,309
17,061
16,716
17,806
17,928
14,775
10,507
10,650
307,472
Georgia Coast 2030
Male
8,298
8,023
7,798
7,896
8,411
11,057
10,784
9,313
7,991
7,538
7,975
8,406
7,822
7,108
5,399
3,512
2,245
2,501
132,077
2015
Female
7,652
7,530
7,633
8,106
8,299
10,133
10,382
9,567
8,499
8,224
9,056
9,936
9,555
8,836
6,897
4,822
3,302
4,551
142,980
Total
15,951
15,553
15,431
16,001
16,710
21,190
21,167
18,880
16,489
15,762
17,031
18,343
17,376
15,944
12,296
8,334
5,546
7,052
275,057
35
Population Forecast for
Chatham County’s Incorporated Cities
Following are population forecasts for the incorporated cities located in Chatham County. The
constant share method was employed. The constant share method uses the city’s 2000 share
of county population and holds that share constant against the projected county population.
This model was adjusted to reflect current building trends using certificate of occupancy data
from 2001 to 2005 provided by the city. This method was used because data used to project
the county population are not enumerated at the city level. This method estimates the city’s
population as a percentage of the county population, increasing it at the same rate. This
estimation technique is based on U.S. Census 2000 data and city boundaries as of 2000. See
the Appendix for a more detailed description of the forecasting methodology.
It is important to note that population estimates for cities are very challenging; therefore, they
may be less accurate than county population projections. These difficulties reflect the fact that
there is limited data available at the city scale, annexations can drastically change land
availability, and land use/zoning policy changes can increase the intensity of land development.
City of Bloomingdale
In 2000, the City of Bloomingdale’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 2,665.
According to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase
approximately 18.5% to 3,159 people by 2015. By 2030, CQGRD forecasts are for the
population to reach 3,531, a 32.5% increase from 2000 (see Table 4d).
Table 4d - City of Bloomingdale Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2,665
2,849
3,011
3,159
3,295
3,415
3,531
Garden City
In 2000, Garden City’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 11,289. According to the
population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately 18.5%
to 13,381 people by 2015. By 2030, CQGRD forecasts are for the population to reach 14,958, a
32.5% increase from 2000 (see Table 5d).
Table 5d - Garden City Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
11,289
12,069
12,753
13,381
13,956
14,466
14,958
Detailed age and sex cohort forecasts were done for Garden City (Table 6d). To calculate
these forecasts, the age and sex cohort allocation from the 2000 census is assumed to stay
constant and is used to allocate population forecasts to specific cohorts.
Georgia Coast 2030
36
Table 6d –Garden City Detailed Cohort Forecasts to 2030
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
393
412
393
363
527
584
539
515
470
357
286
256
222
177
139
111
54
30
5,828
2000
Female
391
399
361
329
453
512
454
372
373
328
288
245
222
236
195
154
87
63
5,461
Total
783
811
754
692
980
1,096
993
887
843
685
573
500
444
413
334
265
141
94
11,289
Male
420
440
420
388
563
625
576
551
503
381
305
273
237
189
149
119
58
33
6,231
2005
Female
418
427
386
352
484
547
485
397
399
351
308
261
237
252
208
165
93
68
5,839
Total
838
867
806
740
1,048
1,172
1,061
948
902
732
613
535
474
441
358
284
151
100
12,069
Male
443
465
444
410
595
660
609
582
531
403
323
289
251
200
158
125
61
34
6,584
2010
Female
442
451
408
372
512
578
512
420
421
371
325
276
251
266
220
174
99
71
6,169
Total
885
916
852
782
1,107
1,238
1,121
1,002
953
773
648
565
501
466
378
300
160
106
12,753
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
485
509
486
449
652
723
666
637
582
441
353
316
274
219
172
137
67
38
7,205
2020
Female
483
494
446
407
560
633
561
459
461
406
356
302
274
291
241
191
108
78
6,751
Total
968
1,003
932
855
1,212
1,355
1,227
1,096
1,043
846
709
619
548
510
413
328
175
116
13,956
Male
503
528
504
465
675
749
691
660
603
457
366
328
284
227
179
142
69
39
7,468
2025
Female
501
512
463
422
580
656
581
476
478
420
369
313
284
302
250
198
112
81
6,998
Total
1,004
1,039
967
887
1,256
1,405
1,272
1,136
1,081
877
734
641
568
529
429
340
181
120
14,466
Male
520
546
521
481
698
774
714
683
623
472
378
339
294
235
185
147
71
40
7,722
2030
Female
518
529
479
436
600
678
601
492
494
435
381
324
294
312
258
205
116
84
7,236
Total
1,038
1,075
999
917
1,299
1,453
1,315
1,175
1,118
907
759
663
588
547
443
352
187
124
14,958
Male
465
488
466
430
625
693
639
611
558
423
338
303
263
210
165
131
64
36
6,908
2015
Female
463
473
428
390
537
607
538
440
442
389
341
290
263
279
231
183
104
75
6,473
Total
929
961
894
820
1,162
1,299
1,177
1,051
1,000
812
679
593
526
489
396
314
168
111
13,381
City of Pooler
In 2000, the City of Pooler’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 6,239. According to
the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately
85% to 11,542 people by 2015. By 2030, CQGRD forecasts are for the population to reach
12,902, a 107% increase from 2000 (see Table 7d).
Table 7d - City of Pooler Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
Georgia Coast 2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
6,239
10,410
11,000
11,542
12,037
12,477
12,902
37
Detailed age and sex cohort forecasts were done for the City of Pooler (Table 8d). To calculate
these forecasts, the age and sex cohort allocation from the 2000 census is assumed to stay
constant and is used to allocate population forecasts to specific cohorts.
Table 8d – City of Pooler Detailed Cohort Forecasts to 2030
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
266
261
261
210
190
246
279
260
245
200
173
125
115
88
64
45
33
18
3,077
2000
Female
231
245
242
190
198
275
278
281
255
188
170
137
114
92
90
74
53
48
3,162
Total
496
506
503
400
388
521
557
540
500
389
343
262
229
180
154
118
86
67
6,239
Male
443
435
436
350
318
410
466
433
408
334
289
209
192
146
107
74
55
31
5,134
2005
Female
385
408
404
318
330
459
464
468
426
314
284
228
191
154
151
123
88
81
5,276
Total
828
844
840
667
648
869
930
901
834
648
572
437
383
300
258
197
143
111
10,410
Male
468
460
460
370
336
433
492
458
431
353
305
221
203
154
113
79
58
32
5,425
2010
Female
407
431
427
336
349
485
490
495
450
332
300
241
202
163
159
130
93
85
5,575
Total
875
891
887
705
684
918
982
952
881
685
605
462
404
317
272
209
151
118
11,000
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
512
504
504
404
367
474
539
501
472
386
334
241
222
169
124
86
63
35
5,936
2020
Female
445
472
467
367
382
531
536
541
493
363
328
264
221
178
174
142
102
93
6,101
Total
957
975
971
772
749
1,005
1,075
1,042
964
750
662
505
442
347
298
228
165
129
12,037
Male
531
522
522
419
381
491
558
519
489
400
346
250
230
175
128
89
66
37
6,153
2025
Female
461
489
484
381
395
551
556
561
511
377
340
273
229
185
181
147
106
97
6,324
Total
992
1,011
1,006
800
776
1,042
1,114
1,080
1,000
777
686
524
459
360
309
237
171
133
12,477
Male
549
540
540
433
394
508
577
537
506
414
358
259
238
181
132
92
68
38
6,363
2030
Female
477
506
501
394
409
569
575
580
528
390
352
283
237
191
187
152
109
100
6,539
Total
1,026
1,046
1,041
827
803
1,077
1,152
1,117
1,034
804
709
541
474
372
319
245
177
138
12,902
Georgia Coast 2030
Male
491
483
483
388
352
454
516
480
452
370
320
231
213
162
118
82
61
34
5,692
2015
Female
427
453
448
352
366
509
514
519
472
348
315
253
212
171
167
136
98
90
5,850
Total
918
935
931
740
718
964
1,031
999
925
719
635
484
424
333
286
219
158
123
11,542
38
City of Port Wentworth
In 2000, the City of Port Wentworth’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 3,276.
According to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase
approximately 18.5% to 3,883 people by 2015. By 2030, CQGRD forecasts are for the
population to reach 4,341, a 32.5% increase from 2000 (see Table 9d).
Table 9d - City of Port Wentworth Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
3,276
3,502
3,701
3,883
4,050
4,198
4,341
City of Savannah
In 2000, the City of Savannah’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 131,510.
According to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase
approximately 18.5% to 155,885 people by 2015. By 2030, CQGRD forecasts are for the
population to reach 174,256, a 32.5% increase from 2000 (see Table 10d).
Table 10d - City of Savannah Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
131,510
140,598
148,563
155,885
162,579
168,520
174,256
Detailed age and sex cohort forecasts were done for the City of Savannah (Table 11d). To
calculate these forecasts, the age and sex cohort allocation from the 2000 census is assumed
to stay constant and is used to allocate population forecasts to specific cohorts.
Georgia Coast 2030
39
Table 11d – City of Savannah Detailed Cohort Forecasts to 2030
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
4,718
4,921
4,751
5,178
6,418
5,245
4,352
4,299
4,153
3,655
3,352
2,551
2,010
1,858
1,641
1,433
882
622
62,039
2000
Female
4,468
4,642
4,672
4,961
6,235
5,243
4,579
4,778
4,797
4,287
3,966
3,105
2,707
2,447
2,557
2,467
1,800
1,760
69,471
Total
9,186
9,563
9,423
10,139
12,653
10,488
8,931
9,077
8,950
7,942
7,318
5,656
4,717
4,305
4,198
3,900
2,682
2,382
131,510
Male
4,830
5,422
5,107
5,153
6,650
6,115
5,234
4,714
4,253
3,563
3,123
2,641
2,340
2,312
1,872
1,482
860
556
66,229
2005
Female
4,590
5,152
5,053
4,941
6,406
6,048
5,516
5,256
4,921
4,139
3,746
3,243
3,222
3,173
2,991
2,598
1,834
1,541
74,370
Total
9,420
10,574
10,160
10,093
13,056
12,163
10,751
9,970
9,174
7,702
6,869
5,884
5,563
5,485
4,863
4,080
2,694
2,097
140,598
Male
5,104
5,730
5,396
5,444
7,027
6,462
5,531
4,981
4,493
3,765
3,300
2,791
2,473
2,443
1,979
1,566
909
588
69,980
2010
Female
4,850
5,444
5,340
5,221
6,769
6,390
5,829
5,553
5,200
4,373
3,958
3,426
3,405
3,353
3,160
2,745
1,938
1,628
78,583
Total
9,954
11,173
10,736
10,665
13,796
12,852
11,360
10,535
9,694
8,138
7,258
6,217
5,878
5,795
5,139
4,312
2,847
2,216
148,563
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
5,585
6,270
5,905
5,958
7,690
7,071
6,053
5,451
4,917
4,120
3,611
3,054
2,706
2,673
2,165
1,714
995
643
76,583
2020
Female
5,308
5,957
5,843
5,713
7,407
6,993
6,379
6,077
5,691
4,786
4,332
3,750
3,726
3,669
3,458
3,004
2,121
1,782
85,996
Total
10,893
12,227
11,749
11,671
15,097
14,064
12,432
11,529
10,608
8,906
7,942
6,804
6,432
6,342
5,623
4,718
3,116
2,425
162,579
Male
5,789
6,499
6,121
6,176
7,971
7,330
6,274
5,651
5,097
4,271
3,743
3,166
2,805
2,771
2,244
1,777
1,031
666
79,381
2025
Female
5,502
6,175
6,057
5,922
7,678
7,249
6,612
6,299
5,899
4,961
4,490
3,887
3,862
3,803
3,585
3,114
2,198
1,847
89,139
Total
11,291
12,674
12,178
12,098
15,649
14,578
12,886
11,950
10,996
9,232
8,233
7,052
6,667
6,574
5,829
4,891
3,230
2,513
168,520
Male
5,986
6,720
6,329
6,386
8,242
7,579
6,487
5,843
5,271
4,416
3,870
3,273
2,901
2,865
2,321
1,837
1,066
689
82,083
2030
Female
5,689
6,385
6,263
6,123
7,939
7,495
6,837
6,514
6,100
5,130
4,643
4,019
3,994
3,933
3,707
3,220
2,273
1,910
92,173
Total
11,675
13,105
12,592
12,509
16,182
15,075
13,324
12,357
11,370
9,546
8,513
7,292
6,894
6,798
6,027
5,057
3,339
2,599
174,256
Male
5,355
6,012
5,662
5,713
7,374
6,780
5,803
5,227
4,715
3,951
3,462
2,928
2,595
2,563
2,076
1,643
954
616
73,429
2015
Female
5,089
5,712
5,603
5,478
7,102
6,705
6,116
5,827
5,457
4,589
4,153
3,595
3,573
3,518
3,316
2,881
2,033
1,708
82,455
Total
10,444
11,724
11,265
11,191
14,476
13,485
11,920
11,054
10,171
8,540
7,615
6,523
6,168
6,081
5,392
4,524
2,987
2,325
155,885
City of Thunderbolt
In 2000, the City of Thunderbolt’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 2,340.
According to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase
approximately 18.5% to 2,774 people by 2015. By 2030, CQGRD forecasts are for the
population to reach 3,101, a 32.5% increase from 2000 (see Table 12d).
Table 12d - City of Thunderbolt Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
Georgia Coast 2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2,340
2,502
2,643
2,774
2,893
2,999
3,101
40
Tybee Island
In 2000, Tybee Island’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 3,392. According to the
population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately 18.5%
to 4,021 people by 2015. By 2030, CQGRD forecasts are for the population to reach 4,495, a
32.5% increase from 2000 (see Table 13d).
Table 13d - Tybee Island Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
3,392
3,626
3,832
4,021
4,193
4,347
4,495
City of Vernonburg
In 2000, the City of Vernonburg’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 138. According
to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately
18.8% to 164 people by 2015. By 2030, CQGRD forecasts are for the population to reach 183, a
32.6% increase from 2000 (see Table 14d).
Table 14d - City of Vernonburg Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
Georgia Coast 2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
138
148
156
164
171
177
183
41
Effingham County, GA
The Context of Population Change
The factors that affect population change include demographic trends (principally age
distribution and mortality rates), in- and out-migration rates, employment rates and other
economic activity, housing construction, land use patterns, and regional, national and global
trends. Population is also affected by factors whose impacts are not subject to easily captured
quantitative measurement, such as policy decisions or impressions about the development
potential of an area. We typically collect such information through anecdotal interviews with
stakeholders. The following chapter outlines the conditions impacting population trends in
Effingham County, Georgia.
Historic Population Trends
Effingham County has been experiencing rapid growth since at least the 1970s, with the rate of
growth increasing each decade. Between 1970 and 1980, the county grew at about 34%,
followed by a 40% increase between 1980 and 1990, and then a 46% increase between 1990
and 2000 (Figure 1e). The largest incorporated city in the county, Rincon, initially did not match
the robust population growth of the county in the 1970s. However the growth rate for Rincon by
the 1980s was closer to the county’s growth rate, and by the 1990s, Rincon’s growth rate
exceeded that of the county.
Figure 1e - Effingham County Historic Population
Effingham County
40000
35000
people
30000
25000
Population
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
year
The population growth in Effingham County has been accompanied by a number of significant
demographic changes. For example, the median age has increased steadily since 1980 going
Georgia Coast 2030
42
from 28 years of age in 1980 to 33.6 in 2000. County school enrollment data from the past ten
years shows total enrollment increasing by about 25% between fall 1994 and spring 2000 and
increasing by approximately 19.5% between fall 2000 and spring 2006. The strong growth in
school enrollment numbers, approximately 52% over the 12-year period, is no surprise given the
rapid population growth experienced by the county during this time. Additionally, the increase in
median age indicates that older adults are locating to the county both with and without schoolage children.
Economic Conditions
Interviews with local representatives indicate that Effingham County is experiencing some
difficulty attracting businesses. An examination of the types of businesses in 2000, as measured
by number of jobs, in each sector (i.e. the local industry mix), showed that nearly 75% of
employment was concentrated in four sectors: manufacturing, retail, service, and state and
local government. Woods and Poole industry projections for 2030 (Table 1e) show
transportation growing the most of any sector, with its share of industry mix expected to grow by
3.8% to reach 9.3%. But this growth is offset by decreases in several sectors, most noticeably
construction (-1.7%), manufacturing (-2.4%), and services (-1.9%). In 2000, Effingham County
had 10,100 jobs, by 2030 that is number is expected to increase to 15,000.
Table 1e - Effingham County Industry Projections
Construction
Manufacturing
Retail
Services
9.8%
8.1%
-1.7%
18.2%
15.9%
-2.4%
18.6%
20.0%
1.3%
16.8%
14.9%
-1.9%
2000
2030
Change
State/
Local Govt
18.4%
19.9%
1.5%
Transportation
5.4%
9.3%
3.8%
Source: Woods and Poole Economics, Inc.
According to stakeholder interviewees, the main attraction for businesses that locate in the
county is accessibility to Savannah’s port and industry. However this was also cited as a liability
for job and business growth. New jobs are being created annually, but the number of new jobs
is relatively small and is concentrated in existing industry types particularly service and retail.
Residential Construction
Residential construction is currently at an all-time high in Effingham County with residential
building permits having more than tripled from 1995 to 2005. The City of Rincon has seen the
most residential development, although all three cities saw a steady increase from 2000 to 2005
(years for which numbers are available).
The quality of the school system, low taxes, and proximity to Savannah were cited as attractors
for people moving to the area. Another reason cited for the population growth and
accompanying residential construction is the relocation of people from Chatham County to
Effingham, causing the county to serve as a bedroom community to Savannah. According to
stakeholder interviews, growth is happening primarily south of Highway 119, which runs north of
the three largest cities in the county, Springfield, Guyton, and Rincon. It was noted that some
areas of the county, such as south and east of Rincon, are unbuildable and uninhabitable
because of environmental issues.
Georgia Coast 2030
43
Reflecting demographic changes, the county is seeing an increase in families with children as
well as older adults without children. This influx is fueling an increase primarily in single-family,
detached homes although an increase has also occurred with single-family, attached homes in
the forms of townhouses, condos, and some apartments. Mobile homes are also being
constructed, although in fewer numbers than in past years. According to interviewees, many of
the homes are pre-sold before they are built, indicating that construction is not keeping up with
demand. Interviewees gave varying predictions as to when build-out would occur, from three
years to 15, although it was noted that large landowners holding out on development could slow
the process.
Other Factors
Refer to Section I: Regional Overview for a brief summary of other factors that may influence
population change in the Georgia coastal region.
Effingham County Population Projections to 2030
According to this study, Effingham County’s population is projected to increase by 77%, from
37,535 people in 2000 to 66,469 by 2015. By 2030, the population is expected to reach 79,935
people, an increase of 113% over the 2000 population. In comparison, the State of Georgia
Office of Planning and Budget estimate for Effingham County shows a 73% increase by the year
2015. The county’s population growth is driven primarily by the net gain in people moving into
the county, referred to as in-migration.
The Standard Methodology
The projected population is calculated using an inter-regional cohort component model, which
tracks population change by age and sex, using baseline population counts as well as birth,
death, and migration rates. This methodology is consistent with the widely accepted standard
followed in the use of the inter-regional cohort component model11. The model employed for
Effingham County used population and migration data from the 2000 U.S. Census and the State
of Georgia’s county-specific birth and death rates. The use of data and analytical procedures
are specified in the Appendix.
Adjusting the Model with Local Data
Interviews with local representatives suggested a relatively fast population growth has occurred
in recent years. Therefore, the population model was adjusted to reflect the most recent trends
in housing construction and in-migration. This adjustment was made using certificate of
occupancy data from 2000 to 2005 provided by Effingham County12. According to the county,
approximately 2,700 certificates were issued during this period. Additionally, the 2010 and 2015
11
Isserman, Andrew M. (1993), “The Right People, The Right Places: Making Population Estimates with an Inter-regional Cohort
Component Model.” Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 59, No. 1.
Klosterman, Richard (1990), Community Analysis and Planning Techniques. Savage, Md., Rowman & Littlefield.
12
Data provided by Coastal Market Graphics were considered in model calibration.
Georgia Coast 2030
44
county estimates from the State of Georgia Office of Planning and Budget were considered in
the calibration of the model.
The certificates of occupancy, along with vacancy rates and average household size data from
the 2000 U.S. Census, were used to generate a population estimate for 2005. The result was an
estimated county population of 47,032 people in 2005. Using the unadjusted model, the 2005
population estimate was only 44,192 (see Table 2e). More details about the adjustment
procedure are available in the Appendix.
Projection Results and Comparisons
Based on the adjusted projection model, Effingham County’s population is expected to reach
79,935 by 2030. Table 2e shows the projected population (using the adjusted model described
above and in more detail in the Appendix), in comparison to the unadjusted cohort model and
the State of Georgia’s population estimates.
Table 2e - Effingham County Population Projection to 2030
Projected Population
Unadjusted Cohort
Model
State of GA - OPB
Estimates*
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
37,535
47,032
54,478
66,469
71,685
76,043
79,935
37,535
44,192
50,099
55,525
60,453
64,646
68,402
37,535
46,924
54,807
64,874
71130
79028
86925
Data Sources: U.S. Census 2000, Georgia Office of Planning and Budget (OPB), Georgia Division of Public Health Office of
Health Information and Policy, Effingham County
Calculations for projected population and cohort model: Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development (Georgia
Tech)
*The State of Georgia Office of Planning and Budget only estimates county population for the years 2010 & 2015. U.S.
Census Bureau estimates were used for 2005.
Georgia Coast 2030
45
Table 3e documents the results of the adjusted projected population by age and sex in five-year
increments.
Table 3e - Effingham County Population Projection, detailed summary
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
1467
1580
1698
1520
1000
1202
1352
1698
1700
1397
1168
884
700
474
355
238
131
82
18,646
2000
Female
1390
1531
1591
1448
1098
1252
1448
1779
1617
1401
1102
855
641
505
436
350
237
208
18,889
Total
2,857
3,111
3,289
2,968
2,098
2,454
2,800
3,477
3,317
2,798
2,270
1,739
1,341
979
791
588
368
290
37,535
Male
1433
1870
1922
2074
1769
1141
1571
1712
2095
2036
1652
1341
1087
742
469
291
208
118
23,532
2005
Female
1379
1770
1813
1909
1658
1186
1585
1772
2141
1920
1700
1309
1043
702
539
417
346
310
23,500
Total
2,812
3,640
3,735
3,984
3,427
2,327
3,155
3,484
4,236
3,956
3,351
2,650
2,130
1,444
1,009
708
555
428
47,032
Male
1664
1429
2196
2233
2245
1667
1576
1896
2082
2329
2142
1777
1526
1103
696
368
237
163
27,331
2010
Female
1579
1370
2041
2066
2029
1550
1583
1888
2110
2303
2145
1865
1487
1087
726
500
389
429
27,147
Total
3,243
2,799
4,237
4,299
4,274
3,217
3,159
3,783
4,193
4,632
4,287
3,643
3,013
2,191
1,422
868
626
592
54,478
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
2226
2130
2088
2374
2748
2172
2426
2448
2498
2597
2426
2450
2478
2002
1451
828
441
242
36,025
2020
Female
1993
1895
1940
2188
2455
1933
2212
2314
2437
2488
2534
2638
2564
2129
1575
1056
652
659
35,660
Total
4,218
4,026
4,029
4,562
5,203
4,104
4,637
4,762
4,934
5,085
4,960
5,088
5,043
4,131
3,026
1,884
1,093
901
71,685
Male
2263
2219
2488
2468
2524
2319
2384
2641
2791
2711
2521
2364
2517
2282
1743
1041
593
297
38,166
2025
Female
1982
1979
2216
2259
2279
2047
2161
2452
2643
2575
2579
2551
2698
2429
1982
1351
901
792
37,877
Total
4,245
4,198
4,704
4,727
4,803
4,366
4,545
5,094
5,434
5,286
5,099
4,915
5,215
4,711
3,725
2,391
1,494
1,088
76,043
Male
2347
2256
2580
2829
2627
2197
2544
2580
2962
2985
2654
2453
2431
2294
1962
1240
730
385
40,056
2030
Female
2075
1969
2302
2508
2361
1967
2295
2387
2768
2771
2689
2597
2610
2524
2231
1677
1130
1020
39,879
Total
4,422
4,225
4,882
5,337
4,988
4,164
4,839
4,967
5,730
5,756
5,342
5,050
5,041
4,818
4,192
2,917
1,860
1,405
79,935
Georgia Coast 2030
Male
2137
1659
2013
2662
2568
2184
2183
2128
2417
2491
2517
2376
2134
1651
1137
612
332
222
33,423
2015
Female
1908
1568
1887
2439
2322
1960
2041
2098
2379
2446
2621
2461
2214
1660
1208
751
510
575
33,046
Total
4,045
3,228
3,900
5,101
4,890
4,144
4,224
4,226
4,796
4,937
5,137
4,837
4,347
3,310
2,345
1,363
842
797
66,469
46
Population Forecast for
Effingham County’s Incorporated Cities
Following are population forecasts for the incorporated cities located in Effingham County. The
constant share method was employed. The constant share method uses the city’s 2000 share
of county population and holds that share constant against the projected county population.
This model was adjusted to reflect current building trends using certificate of occupancy data
from 2001 to 2005 provided by the city. This method was used because data used to project
the county population are not enumerated at the city level. This method estimates the city’s
population as a percentage of the county population, increasing it at the same rate. This
estimation technique is based on U.S. Census 2000 data and city boundaries as of 2000. See
the Appendix for a more detailed description of the forecasting methodology.
It is important to note that population estimates for cities are very challenging; therefore, they
may be less accurate than county population projections. These difficulties reflect the fact that
there is limited data available at the city scale, annexations can drastically change land
availability, and land use/zoning policy changes can increase the intensity of land development.
City of Guyton
In 2000, the City of Guyton’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 917. According to
the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately
163% to 2,412 people by 2015. By 2030, the population is forecasted to reach 2,901, a 216%
increase from 2000 (see Table 4e).
Table 4e - City of Guyton Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
917
1,707
1,977
2,412
2,602
2,760
2,901
City of Springfield
In 2000, the City of Springfield’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 1,821.
According to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase
approximately 77% to 3,225 people by 2015. By 2030, the population is forecasted to reach
3,878, a 113% increase from 2000 (see Table 5e).
Table 5e - City of Springfield Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
Georgia Coast 2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
1,821
2,282
2,643
3,225
3,478
3,689
3,878
47
City of Rincon
In 2000, the City of Rincon’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 4,376. According to
the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately
97% to 8,621 people by 2015. By 2030, the population is forecasted to reach 10,319, a 136%
increase from 2000 (see Table 6e).
Table 6e - City of Rincon Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
4,376
6,856
7,510
8,621
9,282
9,831
10,319
Detailed age and sex cohort forecasts were done for the City of Rincon (Table 7e). To calculate
these forecasts, the age and sex cohort allocation from the 2000 census is assumed to stay
constant and is used to allocate population forecasts to specific cohorts.
Table 7e - City of Rincon Detailed Cohort Forecasts to 2030
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
191
183
173
171
174
205
179
168
166
120
113
86
76
55
39
25
12
5
2,140
2000
Female
176
177
184
159
181
204
198
179
150
137
107
100
76
54
58
52
25
21
2,236
Total
367
360
357
330
355
408
377
347
315
256
220
186
152
109
96
77
37
26
4,376
Male
300
287
272
268
273
320
281
263
259
187
176
134
119
86
60
40
19
8
3,353
2005
Female
275
277
288
249
283
319
310
281
235
214
168
157
120
85
90
81
39
33
3,503
Total
575
564
560
516
556
639
591
544
494
402
344
291
238
171
151
121
58
41
6,856
Male
329
315
298
293
299
351
308
288
284
205
193
147
130
95
66
44
21
9
3,673
2010
Female
302
304
315
273
310
349
339
308
257
235
184
172
131
93
99
89
43
36
3,837
Total
630
618
613
566
609
700
647
595
541
440
377
319
261
187
165
132
64
44
7,510
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
406
389
368
362
369
434
381
356
351
254
239
182
161
117
82
54
26
11
4,539
2020
Female
373
375
390
337
383
432
419
380
318
290
227
213
162
115
122
110
53
44
4,742
Total
779
764
758
699
752
866
800
736
669
544
466
395
323
231
204
164
79
55
9,282
Male
430
412
390
384
391
460
403
377
372
269
253
193
170
124
87
57
27
11
4,808
2025
Female
395
398
413
357
406
457
444
403
336
308
240
225
171
121
129
116
56
47
5,023
Total
825
809
802
741
797
917
847
779
709
576
493
418
342
245
216
173
83
58
9,831
Male
451
432
409
403
411
482
423
395
391
282
265
202
179
130
91
60
29
12
5,047
2030
Female
414
417
433
375
426
480
466
423
353
323
252
237
180
127
136
122
59
49
5,272
Total
866
849
842
777
836
962
889
818
744
605
518
439
359
257
227
182
88
61
10,319
Georgia Coast 2030
Male
377
361
342
336
343
403
353
330
326
236
222
169
149
109
76
50
24
10
4,216
2015
Female
346
349
362
313
356
401
389
353
295
270
211
198
150
106
113
102
49
41
4,404
Total
723
710
704
649
699
804
743
684
621
505
433
367
300
215
189
152
73
51
8,621
48
Glynn County, GA
The Context of Population Change
The factors that affect population change include demographic trends (principally age
distribution and mortality rates), in- and out-migration rates, employment rates and other
economic activity, housing construction, land use patterns, and regional, national and global
trends. Population is also affected by factors whose impacts are not subject to easily captured
quantitative measurement, such as policy decisions or impressions about the development
potential of an area. We typically collect such information through anecdotal interviews with
stakeholders. The following chapter outlines the conditions impacting population trends in Glynn
County, Georgia.
Historic Population Trends
Glynn County has experienced relatively steady growth since the 1970s. In each decade since
the 1970s, the county grew by between 8% and 14% (Figure 1f). However, the county’s only
incorporated city, Brunswick, has consistently lost population since the 1970s. This indicates
that the growth occurring in the county has largely taken place outside of the city boundaries in
the unincorporated county areas.
Figure 1f - Glynn County Historic Population
Glynn County
70000
60000
people
50000
40000
Population
30000
20000
10000
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
year
The population growth in Glynn County has been accompanied by a number of significant
demographic changes. For example, the median age has increased steadily since 1980 going
from 30 years of age in 1980 to 37.9 in 2000. County school enrollment data from the past ten
years shows total enrollment increasing by around 8% between fall 1994 and spring 2000, and
Georgia Coast 2030
49
increasing by approximately 2% between fall 2000 and spring 2006. This recent stagnation in
school enrollment despite the continued population growth may reflect the county’s increasing
popularity among older residents seeking retirement communities and among families and
individuals with no school age children.
Economic Conditions
Interviews with local representatives indicate that Glynn County is experiencing some success
in attracting businesses. An examination of the types of businesses in 2000, as measured by
number of jobs in each sector (i.e. the local industry mix), showed over 65% of employment in a
combination of three sectors: retail, service, and state and local government. Woods and Poole
industry projections for 2030 (Table 1f) show services growing the most of any sector, with its
share of industry mix expected to grow by more than 10% to reach 43.8%. This growth is offset
by decreases in several sectors, most noticeably manufacturing (-5.3%), retail (-2.0%), and
state and local government (-2.3%). In 2000, Glynn County had 45,600 jobs, by 2030 that is
number is expected to increase to 69,000.
Table 1f - Glynn County Industry Projections
2000
2030
Change
Manufacturing
9.1%
3.8%
-5.3%
Retail
21.2%
19.2%
-2.0%
Services
33.1%
43.8%
10.7%
State/ Local Govt
12.8%
10.5%
-2.3%
Source: Woods and Poole Economics, Inc.
According to stakeholder interviewees, the main attraction for businesses that locate in the
county is transportation accessibility provided by the Brunswick Port and Interstate 95, as well
as a supply of relatively inexpensive land. Some local representatives expressed concern that
the perception of the county as having an unskilled workforce could hurt economic growth.
Residential Construction
Residential construction is currently on the rise in Glynn County. Certificates of occupancy for
the county have increased steadily for single family homes in the past several years.
The lure of the coast and the quality of life in the county was cited as a major reason for
population growth. Interviewees also reported that recent growth in the population could be
attributed to retirees relocating to the area. However, interviewees were concerned that a
shortage of affordable housing for lower-income individuals exists and is continuing to get worse,
whereas high-end residential development is meeting demand. Another potential reason the
area is attracting development is the availability of land and the relatively low costs of
development and taxes.
Other Factors
Refer to Section I: Regional Overview for a brief summary of other factors that may influence
population change in the Georgia coastal region.
Georgia Coast 2030
50
Glynn County Population Projections to 2030
According to this study, Glynn County’s population is projected to increase by 29%, from 67,568
people in 2000 to 87,118 by 2015. By 2030, the population is expected to reach 100,483 people,
an increase of 49% over the 2000 population. In comparison, the State of Georgia Office of
Planning and Budget estimate for Glynn County shows a 20% increase by the year 2015. The
county’s population growth is driven primarily by the net gain in people moving into the county,
referred to as in-migration.
The Standard Methodology
The projected population is calculated using an inter-regional cohort component model, which
tracks population change by age and sex, using baseline population counts as well as birth,
death, and migration rates. This methodology is consistent with the widely accepted standard
followed in the use of the inter-regional cohort component model13. The model employed for
Glynn County used population and migration data from the 2000 U.S. Census and the State of
Georgia’s county-specific birth and death rates. The use of data and analytical procedures are
specified in the Appendix.
Adjusting the Model with Local Data
Interviews with local representatives suggested a relatively fast population growth has occurred
in recent years. Therefore, the population model was adjusted to reflect the most recent trends
in housing construction and in-migration. This adjustment was made using certificate of
occupancy data from 2000 to 2005 provided by Glynn County14. According to the county,
approximately 2,800 certificates were issued during this period.
The certificates of occupancy, along with vacancy rates and average household size data from
the 2000 U.S. Census, were used to generate a population estimate for 2005. The result was an
estimated county population of 75,084 people in 2005. Using the unadjusted model, the 2005
population estimate was only 71,610 (see Table 2f). More details about the adjustment
procedure are available in the Appendix.
Projection Results and Comparisons
Based on the adjusted projection model, Glynn County’s population is expected to reach
100,483 by 2030. Table 2f shows the projected population (using the adjusted model described
above and in more detail in the Appendix), in comparison to the unadjusted cohort model and
the State of Georgia’s population estimates.
13
Isserman, Andrew M. (1993), “The Right People, The Right Places: Making Population Estimates with an Inter-regional Cohort
Component Model.” Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 59, No. 1.
Klosterman, Richard (1990), Community Analysis and Planning Techniques. Savage, Md., Rowman & Littlefield.
14
Data provided by Coastal Market Graphics were considered in model calibration.
Georgia Coast 2030
51
Table 2f - Glynn County Population Projection to 2030
Projected Population
Unadjusted Cohort
Model
State of GA - OPB
Estimates*
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
67,568
75,084
81,368
87,118
92,121
96,581
100,483
67,568
71,610
75,044
78,383
81,364
84,089
86,594
10,847
71,874
76339
81,112
Data Sources: U.S. Census 2000, Georgia Office of Planning and Budget (OPB), Georgia Division of Public Health Office of
Health Information and Policy, Glynn County
Calculations for projected population and cohort model: Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development (Georgia
Tech)
*The State of Georgia Office of Planning and Budget only estimates county population for the years 2005 & 2015.
Table 3f documents the results of the adjusted projected population by age and sex in five-year
increments.
Georgia Coast 2030
52
Table 3f – Glynn County Population Projection, detailed summary
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
2,278
2,364
2,507
2,507
1,885
2,046
2,035
2,338
2,487
2,394
2,264
1,760
1,436
1,285
1,102
818
503
313
32,322
2000
Female
2,120
2,324
2,428
2,364
1,841
2,053
2,183
2,738
2,785
2,606
2,462
2,004
1,598
1,457
1,394
1,264
856
769
35,246
Total
4,398
4,688
4,935
4,871
3,726
4,099
4,218
5,076
5,272
5,000
4,726
3,764
3,034
2,742
2,496
2,082
1,359
1,082
67,568
Male
2,294
2,259
2,548
2,712
2,650
2,054
2,203
2,149
2,404
2,591
2,692
2,543
2,007
1,488
1,306
959
644
641
36,145
2005
Female
2,105
2,114
2,494
2,619
2,585
2,090
2,205
2,304
2,814
2,920
2,874
2,712
2,255
1,646
1,562
1,316
1,092
1,234
38,939
Total
4,399
4,373
5,041
5,331
5,235
4,144
4,408
4,453
5,218
5,510
5,566
5,255
4,263
3,134
2,868
2,275
1,735
1,875
75,084
Male
2,376
2,275
2,509
2,707
2,811
2,529
2,286
2,277
2,242
2,474
2,867
2,976
2,723
2,046
1,526
1,121
725
850
39,320
2010
Female
2,213
2,099
2,366
2,639
2,787
2,566
2,296
2,333
2,447
2,884
3,140
3,125
2,915
2,277
1,790
1,463
1,118
1,593
42,048
Total
4,588
4,374
4,875
5,346
5,598
5,095
4,582
4,610
4,689
5,358
6,007
6,100
5,639
4,323
3,316
2,583
1,844
2,442
81,368
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
2,607
2,586
2,652
2,786
2,818
2,551
2,691
2,651
2,499
2,429
2,579
2,958
3,289
3,087
2,638
1,775
991
1,107
44,695
2020
Female
2,427
2,384
2,500
2,618
2,760
2,626
2,739
2,735
2,624
2,607
2,769
3,217
3,520
3,258
2,986
2,272
1,438
1,947
47,427
Total
5,034
4,970
5,152
5,404
5,578
5,177
5,430
5,386
5,123
5,036
5,348
6,175
6,809
6,346
5,624
4,046
2,429
3,054
92,121
Male
2,704
2,585
2,853
2,897
2,905
2,640
2,597
2,705
2,710
2,595
2,679
2,818
3,099
3,208
3,021
2,225
1,327
1,291
46,859
2025
Female
2,470
2,420
2,662
2,743
2,829
2,689
2,656
2,808
2,874
2,770
2,811
2,960
3,353
3,421
3,375
2,759
1,919
2,205
49,723
Total
5,174
5,005
5,516
5,639
5,734
5,329
5,253
5,513
5,584
5,365
5,490
5,778
6,452
6,629
6,396
4,984
3,245
3,497
96,581
Male
2,714
2,682
2,875
3,079
3,025
2,740
2,717
2,608
2,762
2,783
2,871
2,922
2,965
3,019
3,129
2,542
1,633
1,639
48,706
2030
Female
2,527
2,462
2,711
2,895
2,963
2,783
2,760
2,719
2,942
2,998
2,996
3,009
3,119
3,244
3,518
3,112
2,301
2,718
51,777
Total
5,241
5,144
5,586
5,974
5,988
5,523
5,477
5,327
5,704
5,781
5,868
5,930
6,084
6,264
6,647
5,654
3,934
4,357
100,483
Georgia Coast 2030
Male
2,608
2,356
2,555
2,718
2,768
2,627
2,622
2,402
2,352
2,331
2,721
3,131
3,152
2,683
2,070
1,317
836
980
42,228
2015
Female
2,391
2,206
2,383
2,574
2,763
2,690
2,648
2,456
2,480
2,570
3,053
3,350
3,328
2,869
2,429
1,688
1,234
1,776
44,890
Total
4,999
4,562
4,938
5,292
5,531
5,317
5,271
4,858
4,832
4,901
5,774
6,481
6,479
5,553
4,500
3,005
2,069
2,756
87,118
53
Population Forecast for
Glynn County’s Incorporated Cities
Following are population forecasts for the incorporated cities located in Glynn County. The
constant share method was employed. The constant share method uses the city’s 2000 share
of county population and holds that share constant against the projected county population.
This model was adjusted to reflect current building trends using certificate of occupancy data
from 2001 to 2005 provided by the city. This method was used because data used to project
the county population are not enumerated at the city level. This method estimates the city’s
population as a percentage of the county population, increasing it at the same rate. This
estimation technique is based on U.S. Census 2000 data and city boundaries as of 2000. See
the Appendix for a more detailed description of the forecasting methodology.
It is important to note that population estimates for cities are very challenging; therefore, they
may be less accurate than county population projections. These difficulties reflect the fact that
there is limited data available at the city scale, annexations can drastically change land
availability, and land use/zoning policy changes can increase the intensity of land development.
City of Brunswick
In 2000, the City of Brunswick’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 15,600.
According to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase
approximately 29% to 20,114 people by 2015. By 2030, the population is forecasted to reach
23,200, a 49% increase from 2000 (see Table 4f).
Table 4f - City of Brunswick Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
15,600
17,335
18,786
20,114
21,269
22,298
23,200
Detailed age and sex cohort forecasts were done for the City of Brunswick (Table 5f). To
calculate these forecasts, the age and sex cohort allocation from the 2000 census is assumed
to stay constant and is used to allocate population forecasts to specific cohorts.
Georgia Coast 2030
54
Table 5f - City of Brunswick Detailed Cohort Forecasts to 2030
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
568
625
608
570
514
586
525
491
491
384
384
295
304
258
233
173
105
78
7,192
2000
Female
518
621
580
575
567
590
553
577
547
467
430
375
386
371
376
349
268
258
8,408
Total
1,085
1,245
1,187
1,146
1,081
1,177
1,079
1,068
1,038
851
814
670
690
629
609
523
373
336
15,600
Male
631
694
675
634
571
652
584
546
546
427
427
327
338
287
259
193
116
86
7,992
2005
Female
575
690
644
639
630
656
615
641
608
519
478
417
429
412
418
388
298
287
9,343
Total
1,206
1,384
1,319
1,273
1,201
1,308
1,199
1,186
1,154
946
905
744
767
699
677
581
414
373
17,335
Male
683
752
732
687
619
706
633
591
591
463
463
355
367
311
281
209
126
93
8,661
2010
Female
623
748
698
693
683
711
666
694
659
562
518
452
464
447
453
421
323
311
10,125
Total
1,307
1,500
1,430
1,380
1,302
1,417
1,299
1,286
1,250
1,025
980
807
831
757
733
630
449
404
18,786
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
774
852
828
778
701
800
716
669
669
524
524
402
415
352
318
236
143
106
9,805
2020
Female
706
846
790
784
773
805
754
786
746
637
586
512
526
506
512
476
366
352
11,463
Total
1,479
1,698
1,619
1,562
1,474
1,604
1,471
1,456
1,415
1,161
1,110
913
941
857
830
713
508
457
21,269
Male
811
893
869
815
735
838
751
702
702
549
549
421
435
369
333
248
149
111
10,280
2025
Female
740
887
829
822
810
844
791
824
782
668
615
536
551
530
537
500
383
369
12,018
Total
1,551
1,780
1,697
1,638
1,545
1,682
1,542
1,526
1,484
1,217
1,164
957
986
899
870
747
533
480
22,298
Male
844
929
904
848
764
872
781
730
730
572
571
438
453
383
346
258
156
115
10,696
2030
Female
770
923
862
856
843
878
823
858
814
695
639
558
574
552
559
520
399
384
12,504
Total
1,614
1,852
1,766
1,704
1,608
1,750
1,604
1,588
1,544
1,266
1,211
996
1,026
935
905
778
554
499
23,200
Georgia Coast 2030
Male
732
805
783
735
663
756
678
633
633
496
495
380
392
332
300
224
135
100
9,273
2015
Female
667
800
748
742
731
761
713
744
705
602
554
484
497
478
485
451
346
333
10,841
Total
1,399
1,606
1,531
1,477
1,394
1,517
1,391
1,377
1,338
1,098
1,050
864
890
811
785
674
481
433
20,114
55
Liberty County, GA
The Context of Population Change
The factors that affect population change include demographic trends (principally age
distribution and mortality rates), in- and out-migration rates, employment rates and other
economic activity, housing construction, land use patterns, and regional, national and global
trends. Population is also affected by factors whose impacts are not subject to easily captured
quantitative measurement, such as policy decisions or impressions about the development
potential of an area. We typically collect such information through anecdotal interviews with
stakeholders. The following chapter outlines the conditions impacting population trends in
Liberty County, Georgia.
Historic Population Trends
Liberty County has experienced strong population growth since the 1970s, but the rate of
growth has declined each decade since then. In the 1970s, Liberty County grew by a brisk
114%, followed by a strong 40% growth rate in the 1980s, then a moderate rate of 17% in the
1990s (Figure 1g). The county’s largest incorporated city, Hinesville, has experienced a similar
growth rate, with its population growing by 175% during the 1970s, 91% during the 1980s, and
41% during the 1990s.
Figure 1g - Liberty County Historic Population
Liberty County
60000
people
50000
40000
Population
30000
20000
10000
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
year
The population growth in Liberty County has been accompanied by a number of significant
demographic changes. For example, the median age has increased slightly since 1980, going
from 22 years of age in 1980 to 25 in 2000. County school enrollment data from the past ten
Georgia Coast 2030
56
years shows total enrollment increasing by around 7% between fall 1995 and spring 2000 and
decreasing by 1% between fall 2000 and spring 2005. This recent decline in school enrollment
despite the continued population growth may reflect the county’s increasing popularity among
older residents seeking retirement communities and among families and individuals (particularly
military) with no school age children.
Economic Conditions
Interviews with local representatives indicate that Liberty County is experiencing some difficulty
attracting businesses. An examination of the types of businesses in 2000, as measured by
number of jobs in each sector (i.e. the local industry mix), showed a strong reliance on federal
civilian and military jobs, with over 55% of employment in those two sectors. Woods and Poole
industry projections for 2030 (Table 1g) show services growing the most of any sector, with its
share of industry mix expected to grow by nearly 4%, to reach 16.1%. But this growth is likely to
be offset by decreases in several sectors, most noticeably federal civilian (-3.0%) and federal
military (-2.5%). In 2000, Liberty County had 33,400 jobs, by 2030 that is number is expected to
increase to 46,300.
Table 1g - Liberty County Industry Projections
2000
2030
Change
Federal
Civilian
9.2%
6.2%
-3.0%
Federal
Military
46.6%
44.1%
-2.5%
Retail
Services
State/ Local Govt
10.4%
10.4%
0.0%
12.4%
16.1%
3.7%
8.9%
12.0%
3.1%
Source: Woods and Poole Economics, Inc.
Stakeholder interviewees acknowledged that there is a lack of economic diversification within
Liberty County with an over-reliance on the military, whose presence drives the service industry.
Some interviewees feared that market research being conducted in the area has not taken into
account the 4,000+ military personnel that were added in 2004-2005 but were not included in
government forecasts of county population. Interviewees pointed out that because of recent
restructuring at Fort Stewart, deployments no longer result in a mass exodus of people.
Moreover, military retirees are staying in the area, contributing to a well-trained and available
workforce in the county.
Residential Construction
Residential construction in Liberty County has seen an increase in recent years. The county
also supplied data on anticipated building permits for 2008 to2021, which primarily corresponds
to the development of three major mixed-use developments in the county that are expected to
come on-line over the next decade or two. It should be noted that population projections do not
take into account anticipated construction, but are based on actual numbers of units on the
ground, in this case as of 2005, the last year for which data are available.
There is the perception that Chatham and Glynn Counties are built-out, driving residential
construction to Liberty County where housing prices are cheaper. Interviewees also reported
that recent growth in the population could be attributed to a variety of factors, such as retirees or
Georgia Coast 2030
57
“half-backs”15 relocating to the area because of the climate and housing prices, an increase in
military personnel, and military retirees staying in the area. Interviewees noted that a wide
variety of housing types are being constructed; however, there is a perception that residential
development is not meeting the demand for higher-end units ($200,000 or more), which are
particularly appealing to military officers. There is the sense that the county is losing this homebuying market to other nearby cities and counties such as Pooler and Richmond Hill. Two
concerns about residential development expressed by interviewees were the limited availability
of buildable land and the water and sewer cap instituted by the state when Liberty County
exceeded its capacity.
Other Factors
Refer to Section I: Regional Overview for a brief summary of other factors that may influence
population change in the Georgia coastal region.
Liberty County Population Projections to 2030
According to this study, Liberty County’s population is projected to increase by 29%, from
61,610 people in 2000 to 79,698 by 2015. By 2030, the population is expected to reach 89,163
people, an increase of 45% over the 2000 population. In comparison, the State of Georgia
Office of Planning and Budget estimate for Liberty County shows a 12% decrease by the year
2015. The county’s population growth is driven primarily by the net gain in people moving into
the county, referred to as in-migration.
The Standard Methodology
The projected population is calculated using an inter-regional cohort component model, which
tracks population change by age and sex, using baseline population counts as well as birth,
death, and migration rates. This methodology is consistent with the widely accepted standard
followed in the use of the inter-regional cohort component model16. The model employed for
Liberty County used population and migration data from the 2000 U.S. Census and the State of
Georgia’s county-specific birth and death rates. The use of data and analytical procedures are
specified in the Appendix.
Adjusting the Model with Local Data
Interviews with local representatives suggested relatively fast population growth has occurred in
recent years. Therefore, this study evaluated recent building permit data. This data indicated
that the standard methodology provided a relatively accurate 2005 population estimate.17
Furthermore, it was not deemed necessary to adjust the model to reflect the recent change in
military personnel because the results of the standard model adequately accounted for the influx
15
Half-backs is a term used to describe people who moved from the northeast to Florida and then, for various reasons, decided to
move half way back.
16
Isserman, Andrew M. (1993), “The Right People, The Right Places: Making Population Estimates with an Inter-regional Cohort
Component Model.” Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 59, No. 1.
Klosterman, Richard (1990), Community Analysis and Planning Techniques. Savage, Md., Rowman & Littlefield.
17
Data provided by Coastal Market Graphics were considered in model calibration.
Georgia Coast 2030
58
of military personnel and their families. After evaluating the data and the results of the standard
methodology, it was determined that there was no need to adjust the model.
Projection Results and Comparisons
Based on the adjusted projection model, Liberty County’s population is expected to reach
89,163 by 2030. Table 2g shows the projected population (using the adjusted model described
above and in more detail in the Appendix), in comparison to the unadjusted cohort model and
the State of Georgia’s population estimates.
Table 2g - Liberty County Population Projection to 2030
Projected Population
State of GA - OPB
Estimates*
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
61,610
70,237
75,656
79,698
82,856
86,014
89,163
61,610
57,544
55,431
54,197
Data Sources: U.S. Census 2000, Georgia Office of Planning and Budget (OPB), Georgia Division of Public Health Office of
Health Information and Policy, Liberty County
Calculations for projected population and cohort model: Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development (Georgia
Tech)
*The State of Georgia Office of Planning and Budget only estimates county population for the years 2010 & 2015. U.S.
Census Bureau estimates were used for 2005.
Table 3g documents the results of the adjusted projected population by age and sex in five-year
increments.
Georgia Coast 2030
59
Table 3g - Liberty County Population Projection, detailed summary
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
3,315
2,905
2,490
2,866
5,321
3,595
2,799
2,513
2,018
1,371
990
716
519
371
309
190
109
49
32,446
2000
Female
3,097
2,801
2,465
2,292
3,200
2,838
2,566
2,577
1,998
1,513
1,028
795
590
449
349
277
160
169
29,164
Total
6,412
5,706
4,955
5,158
8,521
6,433
5,365
5,090
4,016
2,884
2,018
1,511
1,109
820
658
467
269
218
61,610
Male
4,628
3,289
2,790
2,481
3,401
6,896
3,631
2,695
2,420
1,876
1,327
976
715
483
329
268
149
84
38,437
2005
Female
2,999
3,068
2,641
2,409
2,379
3,799
2,824
2,441
2,468
1,843
1,447
1,020
795
560
396
315
215
181
31,800
Total
7,627
6,357
5,431
4,891
5,780
10,695
6,454
5,136
4,888
3,719
2,774
1,996
1,510
1,043
725
583
364
265
70,237
Male
4,615
4,592
3,041
2,579
3,187
6,365
4,555
2,991
2,444
2,032
1,668
1,250
938
657
424
286
195
109
41,928
2010
Female
3,095
2,971
2,844
2,445
2,460
3,621
3,208
2,568
2,356
2,082
1,678
1,360
996
749
491
352
236
215
33,728
Total
7,710
7,563
5,885
5,024
5,648
9,986
7,763
5,559
4,800
4,115
3,346
2,610
1,934
1,405
915
638
431
324
75,656
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
4,698
4,623
3,694
3,135
3,369
6,047
4,574
3,503
2,882
2,119
1,721
1,534
1,370
1,031
721
489
265
146
45,922
2020
Female
3,206
3,087
2,998
2,690
2,600
3,527
3,294
2,913
2,660
2,054
1,736
1,613
1,433
1,172
794
572
322
263
36,934
Total
7,904
7,711
6,692
5,825
5,969
9,574
7,868
6,415
5,542
4,173
3,457
3,147
2,803
2,204
1,515
1,061
587
409
82,856
Male
4,874
4,661
3,763
3,230
3,658
6,427
4,372
3,529
2,974
2,333
1,797
1,511
1,383
1,183
877
605
353
177
47,707
2025
Female
3,235
3,176
3,055
2,801
2,688
3,756
3,159
2,943
2,753
2,230
1,785
1,548
1,482
1,289
990
686
423
308
38,306
Total
8,108
7,837
6,819
6,031
6,346
10,183
7,531
6,472
5,727
4,563
3,583
3,059
2,864
2,472
1,867
1,291
776
484
86,014
Male
4,981
4,835
3,831
3,303
3,798
6,789
4,653
3,387
3,009
2,416
1,973
1,574
1,360
1,184
995
727
432
230
49,476
2030
Female
3,369
3,204
3,140
2,866
2,805
3,927
3,371
2,833
2,787
2,314
1,935
1,590
1,424
1,317
1,078
839
502
386
39,687
Total
8,350
8,040
6,971
6,169
6,603
10,716
8,024
6,220
5,796
4,730
3,908
3,164
2,783
2,501
2,073
1,566
934
615
89,163
Georgia Coast 2030
Male
4,660
4,579
3,618
2,778
3,154
6,314
4,562
3,424
2,595
2,020
1,742
1,500
1,172
839
573
364
209
133
44,236
2015
Female
3,117
3,066
2,885
2,618
2,435
3,669
3,264
2,828
2,441
1,993
1,811
1,535
1,290
924
652
434
262
239
35,462
Total
7,777
7,645
6,503
5,396
5,589
9,982
7,826
6,252
5,036
4,013
3,553
3,036
2,461
1,763
1,225
798
471
372
79,698
60
Population Forecast for
Liberty County’s Incorporated Cities
18
Following are population forecasts for the incorporated cities located in Liberty County. The
constant share method was employed. The constant share method uses the city’s 2000 share
of county population and holds that share constant against the projected county population.
This model was adjusted to reflect current building trends using certificate of occupancy data
from 2001 to 2005 provided by the city. This method was used because data used to project
the county population are not enumerated at the city level. This method estimates the city’s
population as a percentage of the county population, increasing it at the same rate. This
estimation technique is based on U.S. Census 2000 data and city boundaries as of 2000. See
the Appendix for a more detailed description of the forecasting methodology.
It is important to note that population estimates for cities are very challenging; therefore, they
may be less accurate than county population projections. These difficulties reflect the fact that
there is limited data available at the city scale, annexations can drastically change land
availability, and land use/zoning policy changes can increase the intensity of land development.
City of Hinesville
In 2000, the City of Hinesville’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 30,392.
According to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase
approximately 29% to 39,315 people by 2015. By 2030, the population is forecasted to reach
43,984, a 45% increase from 2000 (see Table 4g).
Table 4g - City of Hinesville Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
30,392
34,648
37,321
39,315
40,873
42,430
43,984
Detailed age and sex cohort forecasts were done for the City of Hinesville (Table 5g). To
calculate these forecasts, the age and sex cohort allocation from the 2000 census is assumed
to stay constant and is used to allocate population forecasts to specific cohorts.
18
The CGRDC did not request that the city of Gum Branch to be included in this study.
Georgia Coast 2030
61
Table 5g - City of Hinesville Detailed Cohort Forecasts to 2030
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
1,658
1,532
1,339
1,096
1,778
1,931
1,413
1,285
1,006
706
434
289
222
134
96
64
23
13
15,019
2000
Female
1,558
1,470
1,284
1,186
1,851
1,746
1,487
1,380
1,016
754
475
352
256
198
147
97
66
51
15,373
Total
3,216
3,002
2,623
2,282
3,629
3,677
2,900
2,664
2,022
1,459
910
641
478
332
242
161
90
65
30,392
Male
1,890
1,747
1,526
1,249
2,027
2,202
1,611
1,465
1,147
805
495
329
253
153
109
73
27
15
17,122
2005
Female
1,776
1,676
1,464
1,352
2,110
1,990
1,695
1,573
1,158
859
542
402
292
225
167
111
76
58
17,526
Total
3,666
3,422
2,990
2,601
4,137
4,192
3,306
3,037
2,305
1,664
1,037
731
545
378
276
184
102
74
34,648
Male
2,036
1,881
1,644
1,346
2,183
2,372
1,735
1,578
1,235
867
533
355
272
165
118
78
29
16
18,443
2010
Female
1,913
1,805
1,577
1,456
2,273
2,143
1,825
1,694
1,247
925
584
433
314
243
180
120
82
63
18,878
Total
3,949
3,686
3,221
2,802
4,456
4,515
3,561
3,272
2,483
1,792
1,117
787
587
407
298
198
110
79
37,321
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
2,230
2,060
1,801
1,474
2,391
2,597
1,900
1,728
1,353
949
584
388
298
180
129
86
31
18
20,198
2020
Female
2,095
1,977
1,727
1,595
2,490
2,347
1,999
1,855
1,366
1,014
639
474
344
266
197
131
89
69
20,675
Total
4,325
4,037
3,528
3,069
4,881
4,945
3,899
3,583
2,719
1,963
1,223
862
643
446
326
217
121
87
40,873
Male
2,315
2,139
1,869
1,530
2,482
2,696
1,973
1,794
1,405
985
606
403
310
187
134
89
33
19
20,968
2025
Female
2,175
2,052
1,793
1,656
2,585
2,437
2,075
1,926
1,418
1,052
664
492
357
276
205
136
93
72
21,463
Total
4,490
4,191
3,662
3,186
5,067
5,133
4,048
3,720
2,823
2,037
1,270
895
667
463
338
225
125
90
42,430
Male
2,400
2,217
1,938
1,586
2,573
2,795
2,045
1,859
1,456
1,021
628
418
321
194
139
92
34
19
21,735
2030
Female
2,254
2,127
1,858
1,716
2,679
2,526
2,151
1,997
1,470
1,091
688
510
370
286
212
141
96
74
22,248
Total
4,654
4,344
3,796
3,302
5,252
5,321
4,196
3,856
2,926
2,112
1,316
928
692
480
351
233
130
94
43,984
Georgia Coast 2030
Male
2,145
1,982
1,732
1,418
2,300
2,498
1,828
1,662
1,301
913
562
374
287
173
124
82
30
17
19,428
2015
Female
2,015
1,902
1,661
1,534
2,395
2,258
1,923
1,785
1,314
975
615
456
331
256
190
126
86
66
19,887
Total
4,160
3,883
3,393
2,952
4,695
4,756
3,751
3,447
2,615
1,888
1,177
829
618
429
313
209
116
84
39,315
62
City of Allenhurst
In 2000, the City of Allenhurst’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 788. According
to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately
29% to 1,019 people by 2015. By 2030, the population is forecasted to reach 1,140, a 45%
increase from 2000 (see Table 6g).
Table 6g - City of Allenhurst Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
788
898
968
1,019
1,060
1,100
1,140
City of Flemington
In 2000, the City of Flemington’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 369. According
to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately
29% to 477 people by 2015. By 2030, the population is forecasted to reach 534, a 45% increase
from 2000 (see Table 7g).
Table 7g - City of Flemington Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
369
421
453
477
496
515
534
City of Midway
In 2000, the City of Midway’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 1,100. According
to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately
29% to 1,423 people by 2015. By 2030, the population is forecasted to reach 1,592, a 45%
increase from 2000 (see Table 8g).
Table 8g - City of Midway Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
Georgia Coast 2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
1,100
1,254
1,351
1,423
1,479
1,536
1,592
63
City of Riceboro
In 2000, the City of Riceboro’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 736. According to
the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately
29% to 952 people by 2015. By 2030, the population is forecasted to reach 1,065, a 45%
increase from 2000 (see Table 9g).
Table 9g - City of Riceboro Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
736
839
904
952
990
1,028
1,065
City of Walthourville
In 2000, the City of Walthourville’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 4,030.
According to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase
approximately 29% to 5,213 people by 2015. By 2030, the population is forecasted to reach
5,832, a 45% increase from 2000 (see Table 10g).
Table 10g - City of Walthourville Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
4,030
4,594
4,949
5,213
5,420
5,626
5,832
Detailed age and sex cohort forecasts were done for the City of Walthourville (Table 11g). To
calculate these forecasts, the age and sex cohort allocation from the 2000 census is assumed
to stay constant and is used to allocate population forecasts to specific cohorts.
Georgia Coast 2030
64
Table 11g - City of Walthourville Detailed Cohort Forecasts to 2030
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
228
223
164
128
313
277
194
144
113
67
50
29
24
17
15
13
7
2
2,009
2000
Female
254
205
164
151
317
223
176
143
113
79
52
33
24
28
24
19
9
5
2,021
Total
483
428
328
278
630
501
371
287
227
146
102
62
48
46
39
32
17
7
4,030
Male
260
254
187
146
357
316
221
164
129
76
57
33
27
20
18
15
8
2
2,290
2005
Female
290
233
187
172
362
255
201
163
129
90
59
37
27
32
27
21
11
6
2,304
Total
550
487
374
317
718
571
422
327
259
167
116
70
54
52
45
36
19
9
4,594
Male
281
274
201
157
384
340
239
176
139
82
61
35
29
21
19
16
9
2
2,467
2010
Female
312
251
202
185
390
274
217
176
139
97
64
40
29
35
29
23
12
7
2,482
Total
593
525
403
342
774
615
455
352
279
179
125
76
58
56
48
39
21
9
4,949
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
307
300
220
172
421
373
261
193
153
90
67
39
32
23
21
17
10
3
2,702
2020
Female
342
275
221
202
427
300
237
193
152
106
70
44
32
38
32
25
13
7
2,718
Total
649
575
442
374
847
673
498
386
305
196
137
83
64
61
53
43
23
10
5,420
Male
319
311
229
178
437
387
271
201
158
94
69
40
33
24
21
18
10
3
2,805
2025
Female
355
286
230
210
443
312
246
200
158
110
73
46
33
39
33
26
13
8
2,822
Total
674
597
458
388
880
699
517
400
317
204
142
86
66
64
55
44
24
10
5,626
Male
331
323
237
185
453
401
281
208
164
97
72
42
34
25
22
19
11
3
2,907
2030
Female
368
296
238
218
459
323
255
207
164
114
76
48
34
41
34
27
14
8
2,925
Total
699
619
475
403
912
724
536
415
328
211
147
89
69
66
57
46
24
11
5,832
Georgia Coast 2030
Male
296
288
212
165
405
359
251
186
147
87
64
37
31
22
20
17
10
3
2,599
2015
Female
329
265
213
195
410
289
228
185
147
102
68
42
31
37
31
24
12
7
2,614
Total
625
553
425
360
815
647
479
371
293
189
132
80
62
59
51
41
22
10
5,213
65
Long County, GA
The Context of Population Change
The factors that affect population change include demographic trends (principally age
distribution and mortality rates), in- and out-migration rates, employment rates and other
economic activity, housing construction, land use patterns, and regional, national and global
trends. Population is also affected by factors whose impacts are not subject to easily captured
quantitative measurement, such as policy decisions or impressions about the development
potential of an area. We typically collect such information through anecdotal interviews with
stakeholders. The following chapter outlines the conditions impacting population trends in Long
County, Georgia.
Historic Population Trends
Long County has been experiencing increasing population growth rates since the 1970s. In the
1970s, the county grew at a robust 21%, followed by 37% in the 1980s, and then 66% in the
1990s (Figure 1h). The county’s only incorporated city, Ludowici, has not experienced a similar
growth rate, with its population actually declining in the 1970s, remaining virtually constant in the
1980s, and increasing by 11.5% in the 1990s. This indicates that the growth occurring in the
county has largely taken place outside of city boundaries in the unincorporated county areas.
Figure 1h - Long County Historic Population
Long County
12000
people
10000
8000
Population
6000
4000
2000
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
year
The population growth in Long County has been accompanied by a number of significant
demographic changes. For example, the median age has increased slightly since 1980, going
from 25 years of age in 1980 to 26.5 in 2000. County school enrollment data from the past ten
Georgia Coast 2030
66
years shows total enrollment increasing by 30% between fall 1994 and spring 2000 and
increasing by 12.5% between fall 2000 and spring 2006. This surge in school-age population
coupled with the slight increase in median age supports the conclusions from interviewees that
mostly military families with children are moving to the county, with some military retirees
moving there as well.
Economic Conditions
Interviews with local representatives indicate that Long County is experiencing great difficulty
attracting businesses, and is mostly a bedroom community for nearby Fort Stewart. An
examination of the types of businesses in 2000, as measured by number of jobs in each sector
(i.e. the local industry mix), showed over 65% of employment in three sectors: retail, service,
and state and local government. Woods and Poole industry projections for 2030 (Table 1h)
show services growing the most of any sector, with its share of industry mix expected to grow by
more than 2.9%, to reach 26.8%. This growth is offset by decreases in several sectors, most
noticeably construction (-1.1%) and farming (-3.1%). In 2000, Long County had 1,300 jobs, by
2030 that is number is expected to increase to 1,950.
Table 1h – Long County Industry Projections
2000
2030
Change
Construction
13.2%
12.1%
-1.1%
Farming
6.8%
3.7%
-3.1%
Retail
8.8%
11.1%
2.3%
Services
24.0%
26.8%
2.9%
State/ Local Govt
32.8%
33.1%
0.4%
Source: Woods and Poole Economics, Inc.
According to stakeholder interviewees, there are virtually no new industries in the county and
very little job growth in general. The interviewees attributed this to the better business climate
located in neighboring Liberty County.
Residential Construction
Interviews suggest that residential construction is increasing. Long County has just begun the
process of permitting new residential construction; therefore, no data were available on the
historical context of this recent increase in housing construction.
Interviewees reported that recent growth in the population could be attributed to military families
settling outside of the Fort Stewart area, attracted to the county by its good schools and low
crime. The interviewees also believed some military retirees were also choosing to relocate to
Long County. There is a perception that residential development is meeting the demand for
housing units.
Other Factors
Other factors are also influencing population change. For example, local representatives
indicated in interviews that until very recently, the county was not even considering utilizing
planning, zoning, or building permits. Refer to Section I: Regional Overview for a brief
summary of other factors that may influence population change in the Georgia coastal region.
Georgia Coast 2030
67
Long County Population Projections to 2030
According to this study, Long County’s population is projected to increase by 72%, from 10,304
people in 2000 to 17,705 by 2015. By 2030, the population is expected to reach 22,607 people,
an increase of 119% over the 2000 population. In comparison, the State of Georgia Office of
Planning and Budget estimate for Long County shows a 23.5% increase by the year 2015. The
county’s population growth is driven primarily by the net gain in people moving into the county,
referred to as in-migration.
The Standard Methodology
The projected population is calculated using an inter-regional cohort component model, which
tracks population change by age and sex, using baseline population counts as well as birth,
death, and migration rates. This methodology is consistent with the widely accepted standard
followed in the use of the inter-regional cohort component model19. The model employed for
Long County used population and migration data from the 2000 U.S. Census and the State of
Georgia’s county-specific birth and death rates. The use of data and analytical procedures are
specified in the Appendix.
Adjusting the Model with Local Data
Interviews with local representatives suggested a relatively fast population growth has occurred
in recent years. However, building permit data have not been collected historically and were not
available for model calibration. The population model was adjusted to reflect some of the recent
trends in in-migration using school enrollment data acquired from the State of Georgia.
School enrollment data by gender and age were compared to the unadjusted cohort model.
Migration rates for age cohorts enrolled in school and the age cohorts of their parents were
adjusted to reflect growth trends over the past 5 years. The result was an estimated county
population of 13,173 people in 2005. Using the unadjusted model, the 2005 population estimate
was 13,040 (see Table 2h).
Projection Results and Comparisons
Based on the adjusted projection model, Long County’s population is expected to reach 22,607
by 2030. Table 2h shows the projected population (using the adjusted model described above
and in more detail in the Appendix), in comparison to the unadjusted cohort model and the State
of Georgia’s population estimates.
19
Isserman, Andrew M. (1993), “The Right People, The Right Places: Making Population Estimates with an Inter-regional Cohort
Component Model.” Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 59, No. 1.
Klosterman, Richard (1990), Community Analysis and Planning Techniques. Savage, Md., Rowman & Littlefield.
Georgia Coast 2030
68
Table 2h - Long County Population Projection to 2030
Projected Population
Unadjusted Cohort
Model
State of GA - OPB
Estimates*
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
10,304
13,173
15,537
17,705
19,568
21,163
22,607
10,304
13,040
15,334
17,433
19,247
20,808
22,238
10,304
11,083
11,881
12,729
Data Sources: U.S. Census 2000, Georgia Office of Planning and Budget (OPB), Georgia Division of Public Health Office of
Health Information and Policy, Long County
Calculations for projected population and cohort model: Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development (Georgia
Tech)
*The State of Georgia Office of Planning and Budget only estimates county population for the years 2010 & 2015. U.S.
Census Bureau estimates were used for 2005.
Table 3h documents the results of the adjusted projected population by age and sex in five-year
increments.
Georgia Coast 2030
69
Table 3h - Long County Population Projection, detailed summary
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
585
491
411
423
580
518
409
422
313
272
236
158
151
84
60
57
28
8
5,206
2000
Female
548
468
386
475
510
414
369
420
332
289
239
153
138
112
104
70
36
35
5,098
Total
1,133
959
797
898
1,090
932
778
842
645
561
475
311
289
196
164
127
64
43
10,304
Male
479
580
678
541
468
802
665
529
521
384
344
274
173
165
75
48
33
18
6,776
2005
Female
487
548
569
483
555
727
492
449
494
387
344
264
161
156
97
81
48
55
6,397
Total
965
1,128
1,246
1,025
1,023
1,529
1,157
978
1,015
770
688
538
334
321
172
130
81
73
13,173
Male
570
475
761
754
568
737
861
717
599
552
442
377
276
195
143
60
29
21
8,137
2010
Female
537
487
641
613
564
770
649
537
511
516
431
363
259
185
132
77
54
74
7,399
Total
1,107
961
1,402
1,368
1,132
1,507
1,510
1,254
1,109
1,068
873
740
535
380
275
136
83
95
15,537
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
679
612
782
796
816
915
884
870
894
749
633
586
444
369
246
131
61
24
10,490
2020
Female
606
588
656
663
735
806
686
690
690
589
545
532
412
359
231
125
68
95
9,078
Total
1,286
1,200
1,438
1,459
1,551
1,721
1,570
1,560
1,584
1,338
1,178
1,118
856
728
477
256
129
119
19,568
Male
693
674
825
871
788
992
926
906
896
879
752
631
542
432
315
186
73
33
11,415
2025
Female
637
606
699
708
727
869
683
696
721
688
602
536
485
418
296
178
84
112
9,747
Total
1,330
1,280
1,524
1,580
1,515
1,861
1,609
1,602
1,618
1,567
1,354
1,167
1,028
850
611
364
157
145
21,163
Male
742
688
879
913
857
992
996
926
928
886
873
739
579
508
368
237
102
42
12,254
2030
Female
650
637
720
747
774
890
733
686
729
719
696
588
488
479
341
225
114
135
10,352
Total
1,392
1,325
1,599
1,661
1,631
1,882
1,729
1,612
1,657
1,605
1,569
1,327
1,066
987
709
463
216
177
22,607
Georgia Coast 2030
Male
616
565
703
835
742
811
838
877
752
615
581
466
368
286
170
109
35
21
9,392
2015
Female
588
537
608
680
669
777
680
659
582
527
538
441
346
277
159
104
52
87
8,313
Total
1,205
1,103
1,311
1,515
1,410
1,589
1,518
1,536
1,335
1,142
1,120
907
714
563
329
213
87
109
17,705
70
Population Forecast for
Long County’s Incorporated Cities
Following are population forecasts for the incorporated cities located in Long County. The
constant share method was employed. The constant share method uses the city’s 2000 share
of county population and holds that share constant against the projected county population.
This model was adjusted to reflect current building trends using certificate of occupancy data
from 2001 to 2005 provided by the city. This method was used because data used to project
the county population are not enumerated at the city level. This method estimates the city’s
population as a percentage of the county population, increasing it at the same rate. This
estimation technique is based on U.S. Census 2000 data and city boundaries as of 2000. See
the Appendix for a more detailed description of the forecasting methodology.
It is important to note that population estimates for cities are very challenging; therefore, they
may be less accurate than county population projections. These difficulties reflect the fact that
there is limited data available at the city scale, annexations can drastically change land
availability, and land use/zoning policy changes can increase the intensity of land development.
City of Ludowici
In 2000, the City of Ludowici’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 1,440. According
to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately
72% to 2,474 people by 2015. By 2030, the population is forecasted to reach 3,159, a 119%
increase from 2000 (see Table 4h).
Table 4h - City of Ludowici Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
Georgia Coast 2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
1,440
1,841
2,171
2,474
2,315
2,958
3,159
71
McIntosh County, GA
The Context of Population Change
The factors that affect population change include demographic trends (principally age
distribution and mortality rates), in- and out-migration rates, employment rates and other
economic activity, housing construction, land use patterns, and regional, national and global
trends. Population is also affected by factors whose impacts are not subject to easily captured
quantitative measurement, such as policy decisions or impressions about the development
potential of an area. We typically collect such information through anecdotal interviews with
stakeholders. The following chapter outlines the conditions impacting population trends in
McIntosh County, Georgia.
Historic Population Trends
McIntosh County experienced the majority of its growth in the decade between 1990 and 2000.
In the two decades preceding the 2000 census, McIntosh grew less than 10%; however, the
county population grew 25% from 1990 to 2000 (Figure 1i). The county’s only incorporated city,
Darien, has not experienced a similar growth rate. Specifically, its population has remained
fairly constant since 1970. This indicates that the growth occurring in the county has largely
taken place outside of the city boundaries in the unincorporated county areas.
Figure 1i - McIntosh County Historic Population
McIntosh County
12000
10000
people
8000
6000
Population
4000
2000
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
year
The population growth in McIntosh County has been accompanied by a number of significant
demographic changes. For example, the median age has increased steadily since 1970 at a
rate of 4.5 years per ten-year period, going from 23.3 years of age in 1970 to 37.1 in 2000.
Georgia Coast 2030
72
County school enrollment data from the past ten years shows total enrollment increasing by
13% between fall 1994 and spring 2000. However, it decreased 1% between fall 2000 and
spring 2006. This recent decline in school enrollment despite the continued population growth
may reflect the county’s increasing popularity among older residents seeking retirement
communities and among families and individuals with no-school age children.
Economic Conditions
Interviews with local representatives indicate that McIntosh County is experiencing some
difficulty attracting businesses. An examination of the types of businesses in 2000, as measured
by number of jobs in each sector (i.e. the local industry mix), showed that over 65% of
employment is concentrated in three sectors: retail, service, and state and local government.
Woods and Poole industry projections for 2030 (Table 1i) show retail growing the most of any
sector, with its share of industry mix expected to grow by more than 7%, to a 35.7% share. But
this growth is likely to be offset by decreases in several sectors, most noticeably construction
(-1.1%), manufacturing (-1.6%), and state and local government (-2.8%). In 2000, McIntosh
County had 3,400 jobs, by 2030 that is number is expected to increase to 6,100.
Table 1i - McIntosh County Industry Projections
2000
2030
Change
Construction
4.3%
3.2%
-1.1%
Manufacturing
3.0%
1.4%
-1.6%
Retail
28.3%
35.7%
7.4%
Services
20.4%
20.5%
0.1%
State/ Local Govt
19.9%
17.2%
-2.8%
Source: Woods and Poole Economics, Inc.
According to stakeholder interviewees, the main attraction for businesses that locate in the
county is transportation accessibility provided by the Brunswick Port and Interstate 95. Some
local representatives expressed concern that the stagnant job growth may be tied to problems in
the educational system and the need for a more trained, skilled workforce.
Residential Construction
Residential construction is currently at an all-time high in McIntosh County. Certificates of
occupancy for the county reached their highest total in 2005, the last year for which data were
available. Building permits followed a similar trend. See the Appendix for data.
The lack of heavy industry near residential areas in McIntosh County was cited as an attractor
for people moving to the area. Interviewees also reported that recent growth in the population
could be attributed to retirees relocating to the area. The increase in this segment of the
population might explain why multi-family units and second homes are estimated to be the
majority of new housing units built. There is a perception that residential development is
meeting the demand for high-end units, but failing to meet the demand for mid-range singlefamily homes. Another potential reason the area is attracting development is the availability of
land; however, interviewees said that several land owners with large plots are waiting to sell
until sewer is made available in particular areas of the county.
Georgia Coast 2030
73
Other Factors
Refer to Section I: Regional Overview for a brief summary of other factors that may influence
population change in the Georgia coastal region.
McIntosh County Population Projections to 2030
According to this study, McIntosh County’s population is projected to increase by 45%, from
10,847 people in 2000 to 15,751 in 2015. By 2030, the population is expected to reach 18,626,
an increase of 71% over the 2000 population. In comparison, the State of Georgia Office of
Planning and Budget estimate for McIntosh County shows a 9% increase by the year 2015.
The county’s population growth is driven primarily by the net gain in people moving into the
county, referred to as in-migration.
The Standard Methodology
The projected population is calculated using an inter-regional cohort component model, which
tracks population change by age and sex, using baseline population counts as well as birth,
death, and migration rates. This methodology is consistent with the widely accepted standard
followed in the use of the inter-regional cohort component model20. The model employed for
McIntosh County used population and migration data from the 2000 U.S. Census and the State
of Georgia’s county-specific birth and death rates. The use of data and analytical procedures
are specified in the Appendix.
Adjusting the Model with Local Data
Interviews with local representatives suggested a relatively fast population growth has occurred
in recent years. Therefore, the population model was adjusted to reflect the most recent trends
in housing construction and in-migration. This adjustment was made using certificate of
occupancy data from 2000 to 2005 provided by McIntosh County21. According to the county,
approximately 700 certificates were issued during this period.
The certificates of occupancy, along with vacancy rates and average household size data from
the 2000 U.S. Census, were used to generate a population estimate for 2005. The result was an
estimated county population of 12,689 people in 2005. Before this adjustment was made, the
2005 population estimate was 11,856 (see Table 2i). More details about the adjustment
procedure are available in the Appendix.
Projection Results and Comparisons
Based on the adjusted projection model, McIntosh County’s population is expected to reach
18,626 by 2030. Table 2i shows the projected population (using the adjusted model described
above and in more detail in the Appendix), in comparison to the unadjusted cohort model and
the State of Georgia’s population estimates.
20
Isserman, Andrew M. (1993), “The Right People, The Right Places: Making Population Estimates with an Inter-regional Cohort
Component Model.” Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 59, No. 1.
Klosterman, Richard (1990), Community Analysis and Planning Techniques. Savage, Md., Rowman & Littlefield.
21
Data provided by Coastal Market Graphics were considered in model calibration.
Georgia Coast 2030
74
Table 2i - McIntosh County Population Projection to 2030
Projected Population
Unadjusted Cohort
Model
State of GA - OPB
Estimates*
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
10,847
12,689
14,262
15,751
16,939
17,918
18,626
10,847
11,856
12,745
13,645
14,349
14,914
15,308
10,847
11,068
11,427
11,784
Data Sources: U.S. Census 2000, Georgia Office of Planning and Budget (OPB), Georgia Division of Public Health Office of
Health Information and Policy, McIntosh County
Calculations for projected population and cohort model: Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development (Georgia
Tech)
*The State of Georgia Office of Planning and Budget only estimates county population for the years 2010 & 2015. U.S.
Census Bureau estimates were used for 2005.
Table 3i documents the results of the adjusted projected population by age and sex in five-year
increments.
Table 3i – McIntosh County Population Projection, detailed summary
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
377
457
435
483
251
290
351
364
392
421
363
292
296
213
168
123
54
39
5,369
2000
Female
338
451
410
338
283
315
382
390
433
417
394
341
303
196
196
135
74
82
5,478
Total
715
908
845
821
534
605
733
754
825
838
757
633
599
409
364
258
128
121
10,847
Male
412
373
501
502
518
275
312
358
403
444
499
502
430
373
209
153
98
71
6,433
2005
Female
343
335
505
486
351
284
327
380
422
479
453
498
447
366
198
179
114
90
6,256
Total
755
708
1,006
988
869
559
639
739
825
923
952
1,000
877
739
407
332
212
161
12,689
Male
415
408
445
541
534
447
314
336
394
445
520
639
628
523
339
186
114
110
7,338
2010
Female
351
339
411
559
448
334
317
346
410
461
502
565
595
518
335
182
139
112
6,924
Total
766
747
857
1,100
981
780
631
682
804
906
1,023
1,204
1,223
1,041
674
368
253
222
14,262
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
481
504
488
543
541
465
435
428
400
426
498
637
787
851
619
399
200
168
8,871
2020
Female
409
419
434
502
451
422
397
379
399
429
463
572
707
741
582
405
218
141
8,068
Total
890
924
922
1,046
991
887
832
807
799
854
961
1,210
1,493
1,592
1,201
805
418
310
16,939
Male
532
476
565
559
573
463
433
434
465
451
494
620
752
871
733
520
272
220
9,432
2025
Female
435
404
499
520
466
402
405
409
427
446
450
554
661
773
652
502
297
182
8,486
Total
967
880
1,065
1,079
1,039
865
838
843
891
897
944
1,174
1,414
1,645
1,385
1,022
569
402
17,918
Male
504
526
548
621
592
489
440
428
472
510
526
622
731
829
750
614
346
291
9,840
2030
Female
423
431
490
580
484
418
402
410
451
475
473
547
640
722
677
561
362
241
8,786
Total
926
957
1,038
1,201
1,075
907
843
837
923
985
999
1,169
1,372
1,551
1,428
1,175
708
532
18,626
Georgia Coast 2030
Male
510
411
479
510
556
457
427
348
381
434
512
660
767
712
468
291
135
140
8,197
2015
Female
424
348
421
488
488
399
354
349
387
447
478
608
670
661
465
294
143
131
7,554
Total
934
758
900
999
1,044
856
781
696
767
881
989
1,268
1,437
1,372
933
585
278
271
15,751
75
Population Forecast for
McIntosh County’s Incorporated Cities
Following are population forecasts for the incorporated cities located in McIntosh County. The
constant share method was employed. The constant share method uses the city’s 2000 share
of county population and holds that share constant against the projected county population.
This model was adjusted to reflect current building trends using certificate of occupancy data
from 2001 to 2005 provided by the city. This method was used because data used to project
the county population are not enumerated at the city level. This method estimates the city’s
population as a percentage of the county population, increasing it at the same rate. This
estimation technique is based on U.S. Census 2000 data and city boundaries as of 2000. See
the Appendix for a more detailed description of the forecasting methodology.
It is important to note that population estimates for cities are very challenging; therefore, they
may be less accurate than county population projections. These difficulties reflect the fact that
there is limited data available at the city scale, annexations can drastically change land
availability, and land use/zoning policy changes can increase the intensity of land development.
City of Darien
In 2000, the City of Darien’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 1,719. According to
the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately
45.2% to 2,496 people by 2015. By 2030, CQGRD forecasts are for the population to reach
2,952, a 71.7% increase from 2000 (see Table 4i).
Table 4i - City of Darien Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
Georgia Coast 2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
1,719
2,011
2,260
2,496
2,684
2,840
2,952
76
Screven County, GA
The Context of Population Change
The factors that affect population change include demographic trends (principally age
distribution and mortality rates), in- and out-migration rates, employment rates and other
economic activity, housing construction, land use patterns, and regional, national and global
trends. Population is also affected by factors whose impacts are not subject to easily captured
quantitative measurement, such as policy decisions or impressions about the development
potential of an area. We typically collect such information through anecdotal interviews with
stakeholders. The following chapter outlines the conditions impacting population trends in
Screven County, Georgia.
Historic Population Trends
Screven County has experienced a fluctuating growth rate since the 1970s. In the 1970s,
Screven grew at an 11% growth rate, followed by a 1% decline in the 1980s, then returning to
an 11% growth rate in the 1990s (Figure 1j). The county’s largest incorporated city, Sylvania,
has experienced a similar growth rate. After slowly growing at about 5% in the 1970s, the city
shrunk 14% in the 1980s, and unlike the county, continued its downward trend, losing 7% in the
1990s.
Figure 1j - Screven County Historic Population
Screven County
16000
14000
people
12000
10000
Population
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
year
The population growth in Screven County has been accompanied by a number of significant
demographic changes. For example, the median age has increased steadily since 1980, going
from 29 years of age in 1980 to 36.2 in 2000. County school enrollment data from the past ten
Georgia Coast 2030
77
years shows total enrollment increasing by 0.5% between fall 1994 and spring 2000. However,
it decreased 5.5% between fall 2000 and spring 2006.
Economic Conditions
Interviews with local representatives indicate that Screven County is experiencing some
difficulty attracting businesses. An examination of the types of businesses in 2000, as measured
by number of jobs in each sector (i.e. the local industry mix), showed that 70% of employment is
concentrated in four sectors: manufacturing, retail, service, and state and local government.
Woods and Poole industry projections for 2030 (Table 1j) show services growing the most of
any sector, with its share of industry mix expected to grow by nearly 9%, to a 26.3% share. But
this growth is likely to be offset by decreases in several sectors, most noticeably manufacturing
(-4.9%), and retail (-2.8%). In 2000, Screven County had 5,500 jobs, by 2030 that is number is
expected to increase to 6,200.
Table 1j - Screven County Industry Projections
2000
2030
Change
Construction
5.0%
4.5%
-0.5%
Manufacturing
22.1%
17.2%
-4.9%
Retail
13.0%
10.2%
-2.8%
Services
17.4%
26.3%
8.9%
State/ Local Govt
17.5%
17.5%
-0.1%
Source: Woods and Poole Economics, Inc.
According to stakeholder interviewees, the main attraction for businesses that locate in the
county is abundance available land. The county, which is primarily pro-industry, is also able to
attract businesses due to logistics and proximity to the Savannah River Parkway. Jobs are
being created; however, most are due to expansions within existing industries.
Residential Construction
Residential construction is currently at a low point in Screven County, with residential permits
having steadily decreased from 1999 to 2005. The City of Sylvania’s number of residential
permits has fluctuated from 1995 to 2005 (years for which numbers are available).
The quality of life, lifestyle, and location of new industries in the late 1960s were cited as
attractors for people moving to the area. Another reason cited for recent population growth is
the relocation of people from Chatham and Effingham Counties, primarily families and people
whose children are beyond school age. According to stakeholder interviews, growth is
occurring in the southern end of the county, on the outskirts of the Sylvania city limits, and in
and near the City of Newington.
Reflecting demographic changes, the county has seen an increase in families with older
children who are finished or have nearly completed school and retirees. However, not a lot of
young parents with young children are moving to the county. The influx in families with older
children and retirees has led to an increase primarily in single-family detached residential units.
No large-scale development has been built countywide recently, but new development is
expected to occur within the next six months, possibly with the addition of new multi-family units.
According to local representatives, residential construction is not meeting demand, especially
Georgia Coast 2030
78
for single-family housing for working families. According to interviewees, there are not many
places inside of Sylvania to build a new house, but more areas will be available with annexation.
Other Factors
Other factors are also influencing population change. For example, local interviewees
mentioned that the Savannah River Parkway could have a tremendous impact on population
and job growth because it will allow easier access to the Savannah Port. A proposal to build
two new nuclear plants at Vogel, if successful, would bring new jobs to the county. The Screven
County airport could be enhanced to support industrial development. It was also indicated that
job growth in the service industry is most likely to occur in areas near the Sylvania bypass. The
future of industrial growth and farming is uncertain. Refer to Section I: Regional Overview for a
brief summary of other factors that may influence population change in the Georgia coastal
region.
Screven County Population Projections to 2030
According to this study, Screven County’s population is projected to increase by 43.5%, from
15,374 people in 2000 to 22,070 in 2015. By 2030, the population is expected to reach 26,779,
an increase of 74% over the 2000 population. In comparison, the State of Georgia Office of
Planning and Budget estimate for Screven County shows a 2% increase by the year 2015. The
county’s population growth is driven primarily by the net gain in people moving into the county,
referred to as in-migration.
The Standard Methodology
The projected population is calculated using an inter-regional cohort component model, which
tracks population change by age and sex, using baseline population counts as well as birth,
death, and migration rates. This methodology is consistent with the widely accepted standard
followed in the use of the inter-regional cohort component model22. The model employed for
Screven County used population and migration data from the 2000 U.S. Census and the State
of Georgia’s county-specific birth and death rates. The use of data and analytical procedures
are specified in the Appendix.
Adjusting the Model with Local Data
Interviews with local representatives suggested a relatively fast population growth has occurred
in recent years. Therefore, the population model was adjusted to reflect the most recent trends
in housing construction and in-migration. This adjustment was made using certificate of
occupancy data from 2000 to 2005 provided by Screven County. According to the county,
approximately 1,300 certificates were issued during this period.
The certificates of occupancy, along with vacancy rates and average household size data from
the 2000 U.S. Census, were used to generate a population estimate for 2005. The result was an
22
Isserman, Andrew M. (1993), “The Right People, The Right Places: Making Population Estimates with an Inter-regional Cohort
Component Model.” Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 59, No. 1.
Klosterman, Richard (1990), Community Analysis and Planning Techniques. Savage, Md., Rowman & Littlefield.
Georgia Coast 2030
79
estimated county population of 17,899 people in 2005. Before this adjustment was made, the
2005 population estimate was 15,861 (see Table 2j). More details about the adjustment
procedure are available in the Appendix.
Projection Results and Comparisons
Based on the adjusted projection model, Screven County’s population is expected to reach
26,779 by 2030. Table 2j shows the projected population (using the adjusted model described
above and in more detail in the Appendix), in comparison to the unadjusted cohort model and
the State of Georgia’s population estimates.
Table 2j - Screven County Population Projection to 2030
Projected Population
Unadjusted Cohort
Model
State of GA - OPB
Estimates*
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
15,374
17,899
20,058
22,070
23,872
25,398
26,779
15,374
15,861
16,250
16,690
17,070
17,396
17,706
15,374
15,430
15,576
15,704
Data Sources: U.S. Census 2000, Georgia Office of Planning and Budget (OPB), Georgia Division of Public Health Office of
Health Information and Policy, Screven County
Calculations for projected population and cohort model: Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development (Georgia
Tech)
*The State of Georgia Office of Planning and Budget only estimates county population for the years 2010 & 2015. U.S.
Census Bureau estimates were used for 2005.
Table 3j documents the results of the adjusted projected population by age and sex in five-year
increments.
Georgia Coast 2030
80
Table 3j - Screven County Population Projection, detailed summary
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
518
630
664
595
463
374
484
539
549
568
473
346
289
247
242
178
115
69
7,343
2000
Female
494
608
680
544
461
459
447
587
637
570
479
417
344
342
303
282
191
186
8,031
Total
1,012
1,238
1,344
1,139
924
833
931
1,126
1,186
1,138
952
763
633
589
545
460
306
255
15,374
Male
454
512
728
746
697
453
419
561
642
618
656
544
409
329
270
213
160
142
8,553
2005
Female
493
488
699
758
682
485
522
547
708
734
691
567
491
397
333
269
234
249
9,346
Total
947
999
1,427
1,504
1,379
938
941
1,108
1,350
1,352
1,347
1,111
900
726
603
481
394
391
17,899
Male
468
448
637
794
834
599
489
508
654
690
701
716
591
454
349
236
184
200
9,552
2010
Female
530
486
603
767
871
621
555
614
666
787
839
768
638
550
389
293
223
305
10,506
Total
998
935
1,240
1,562
1,704
1,220
1,045
1,122
1,320
1,477
1,540
1,483
1,229
1,005
738
529
407
505
20,058
Age
Under 5
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 85
85 +
Total
Male
564
575
612
689
813
692
665
685
691
664
753
789
786
764
608
403
258
269
11,280
2020
Female
636
625
650
703
814
719
757
758
777
801
827
911
943
867
651
464
286
350
12,538
Total
1,201
1,199
1,262
1,392
1,627
1,411
1,421
1,443
1,467
1,465
1,580
1,700
1,729
1,631
1,259
868
545
619
23,818
Male
586
557
714
715
791
671
666
740
786
741
729
785
804
795
733
509
345
324
11,991
2025
Female
649
628
745
746
834
701
739
834
874
857
881
868
943
965
799
563
384
396
13,406
Total
1,235
1,185
1,459
1,461
1,625
1,372
1,405
1,574
1,661
1,599
1,610
1,653
1,746
1,760
1,532
1,072
728
720
25,398
Male
580
579
705
811
823
667
660
735
836
831
809
769
796
800
759
607
427
416
12,610
2030
Female
663
640
753
835
882
724
738
813
943
953
944
918
900
952
876
682
461
492
14,169
Total
1,243
1,219
1,458
1,646
1,705
1,391
1,397
1,548
1,779
1,784
1,753
1,687
1,697
1,752
1,635
1,289
888
907
26,779
Georgia Coast 2030
Male
582
463
591
723
868
681
603
581
614
696
753
756
750
618
471
301
204
238
10,491
2015
Female
633
523
610
690
869
731
669
655
726
744
871
897
828
691
530
344
243
325
11,579
Total
1,215
986
1,201
1,413
1,737
1,412
1,272
1,235
1,341
1,440
1,624
1,653
1,578
1,308
1,001
645
447
563
22,070
81
Population Forecast for
Screven County’s Incorporated Cities
Following are population forecasts for the incorporated cities located in Screven County. The
constant share method was employed. The constant share method uses the city’s 2000 share
of county population and holds that share constant against the projected county population.
This model was adjusted to reflect current building trends using certificate of occupancy data
from 2001 to 2005 provided by the city. This method was used because data used to project
the county population are not enumerated at the city level. This method estimates the city’s
population as a percentage of the county population, increasing it at the same rate. This
estimation technique is based on U.S. Census 2000 data and city boundaries as of 2000. See
the Appendix for a more detailed description of the forecasting methodology.
It is important to note that population estimates for cities are very challenging; therefore, they
may be less accurate than county population projections. These difficulties reflect the fact that
there is limited data available at the city scale, annexations can drastically change land
availability, and land use/zoning policy changes can increase the intensity of land development.
City of Hiltonia
In 2000, the City of Hiltonia’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 421. According to
the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately
43% to 604 people by 2015. By 2030, CQGRD forecasts are for the population to reach 733, a
74% increase from 2000 (see Table 4j).
Table 4j - City of Hiltonia Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
421
490
549
604
652
695
733
City of Newington
In 2000, the City of Newington’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 322. According
to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately
43% to 462 people by 2015. By 2030, CQGRD forecasts are for the population to reach 561, a
74% increase from 2000 (see Table 5j).
Table 5j - City of Newington Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
Georgia Coast 2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
322
375
420
462
499
532
561
82
City of Oliver
In 2000, the City of Oliver’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 253. According to
the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately
43% to 363 people by 2015. By 2030, CQGRD forecasts are for the population to reach 441, a
74% increase from 2000 (see Table 6j).
Table 6j - City of Oliver Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
253
295
330
363
392
418
441
City of Rocky Ford
In 2000, the City of Rocky Ford’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 186. According
to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately
43% to 267 people by 2015. By 2030, CQGRD forecasts are for the population to reach 324, a
74% increase from 2000 (see Table 7j).
Table 7j - City of Rocky Ford Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
186
217
243
267
288
307
324
City of Sylvania
In 2000, the City of Sylvania’s population as reported in the U.S. Census was 2,675. According
to the population forecasting model, the city’s population is expected to increase approximately
43% to 3,840 people by 2015. By 2030, CQGRD forecasts are for the population to reach 4,659,
a 71.7% increase from 2000 (see Table 8j).
Table 8j - City of Sylvania Population Forecast to 2030
Population
Forecast
Georgia Coast 2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2,675
3,114
3,490
3,840
4,144
4,419
4,659
83
Georgia Coast 2030
84
Appendix
County Population Projection Methodology
An inter-regional cohort-component model was used to project population by age and sex for
each of the 10 counties in the coastal Georgia region. This is a widely accepted populationprojection technique that is useful for modeling areas, such as counties, where data about the
components of population change are readily available.23
The cohort-component method is in effect an accounting framework. This means that every
person staying, coming into, or going out of the study area (county) because of birth, death, or
migration, has to be accounted for in some fashion. Each of these components—birth, death,
and migration—is an independent process that changes by varying degrees, affecting differing
segments of the population in different ways.
For this model, population is divided into 18 five-year age cohorts: under five, five-to-nine, 10-to14, continuing on to 85 and older. These cohorts are further divided by gender for a total of 36
cohorts. This allows the measurement of the disaggregate effects of population change on
each cohort.
This model uses the “at-risk” principle of demography. Each individual cohort has a certain risk,
or probability, of a demographic event occurring for its members. This takes into account the
varying probability that members of a specific cohort will experience a demographic event such
as birth, death, or migration. For example, the specific birth rate for mothers age 20-24 will only
be applied to females in the age 20-24 cohort since they are the only ones that have a
probability, or risk, of becoming 20-24-year-old mothers.
Adherence to this “at-risk” principle requires the use of an inter-regional approach when
calculating migration rates. There are two types of migrants:
ƒ
out-migrants are those who move out of the county during a specified time period,
and
ƒ
in-migrants are those who move into the county from another location during a
specified time period.
The migration rates for both types of migrants are calculated using 2000 census data and reflect
those who have moved into and out of the county during the 1995–2000 time frame. Outmigration rates are calculated and applied to cohorts living within the specific county and inmigration rates are calculated and applied to cohorts living outside the county of interest. In
other words, only those who live outside the county are “at-risk” of migrating into the county and
only those who live in the county are “at-risk” of migrating out of the county in any given time
period.
23
Isserman, Andrew M. (1993), “The Right People, The Right Places: Making Population Estimates with an Inter-regional Cohort
Component Model.” Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 59, No. 1.
Klosterman, Richard (1990), Community Analysis and Planning Techniques. Savage, Md., Rowman & Littlefield.
Georgia Coast 2030
85
To account for recent trends in in-migration, building permits and/or certificates of occupancy for
the 2001–2005 time period were used to calibrate the model. These data, along with household
size data and vacancy rates from the 2000 census, were used to calculate a target population
for 2005. When this 2005 target population was higher than the cohort-component model’s
2005 population, the in-migration rates in the model were adjusted to calibrate the model to the
higher 2005 population level. When building permit or certificate of occupancy data were not
available, school enrollment data for the period 2001–2005 were used to calibrate the model.
In-migration rates were adjusted to account for the increased in-migration of the school-age
children and their parents. In some instances it was necessary to add one-time events affecting
population levels into the model. These events included the addition of submarines to the
King’s Bay Naval Base and the addition of new on-campus housing at Georgia Southern
University. These additions did not affect in-migration rates.
In addition to migration rates, this model uses cohort-specific birth and death rates. Birth rates
are calculated separately for each at-risk female age cohort beginning with those ages 10-14
through females age 50-54. Each county’s live births by age cohort by year were obtained from
the State of Georgia’s published vital statistics. To help control for fluctuations that might occur,
the number of live births in the target county by each cohort is averaged over the three years
(1999, 2000, and 2001), then divided by the cohort’s total population to get the birth rate for that
cohort. Georgia vital statistics are also used to determine the proportion of females and males
born in each county for the same time period. Death rates are calculated in the same manner
as birth rates, using Georgia vital statistics, and are applied to all age cohorts.
Using the female 20-24-year-old cohort as an example, figure (1k) illustrates how the model
moves through each time period. A certain number of the cohort currently residing in the county
will survive and stay throughout the five-year time period and will become part of the 25-to-29
age cohort in the year 2005. Those stayers will give birth to a certain number of boys and girls,
who will become part of the under-five cohort for their gender in 2005. A certain number of the
20-24-year-old cohort will survive, but move out of the county along with any children to which
they give birth in that time period. Additionally, there will be a certain number of the 20-24-yearold female cohort residing in the rest of the United States that will move into the county during
the five-year time period. Those new residents will give birth to a certain number of boys and
girls which will become part of the under-five age cohort for their gender in 2005.
Georgia Coast 2030
86
Figure 1k - Conceptual Illustration of the
Cohort-Component Population Projection Method
AGE in 2000
AGE in 2005
SOURCE: Isserman, Andrew M. (Winter 1993) “The Right People, the Right Rates: Making Population
Estimates and Forecasts with an Interregional Cohort-Component Model.” Journal of the American Planning Association.
Vol. 59, No. 1.
Georgia Coast 2030
87
City and Town Population Forecast Methodology
The forecast of city and town populations is done using the constant share method24. This
involves measuring the sub-county area’s share of population as reported by the 2000 census
and making the assumption that the sub-county area will continue to grow with the county, using
that share to forecast population for the area. This is a commonly used population extrapolation
method.
When the data were available, building permits and certificates of occupancy were used to
calibrate cities’ populations to 2005 levels. These permit data, along with household size data
and vacancy rates from the 2000 census, were used to calculate a target population for 2005.
When this 2005 target population was higher than the 2005 population forecast by the constant
share method, the higher estimated 2005 population level was used as the basis for the
constant share forecasts.
It is impossible to predict future events such as annexations and build out with complete
accuracy. Furthermore, detailed data on migration, birth, and death rates are unavailable at the
city level. Any change in boundaries, annexation plans, zoning, and so on could drastically
change city population, making accurate forecasting difficult. While the forecasts for coastal
Georgia are made knowing these limitations, this method will provide a reasonable estimation of
the magnitude and direction of population growth in cities assuming the area continues to grow
with the county.
24
Isserman, Andrew M. (1977), “The Accuracy of Population Projections for Subcounty Areas.” Journal of the American Institute of
Planners. July 1977, pp. 247-221.
Georgia Coast 2030
88
Population Projection Calibrations Technique
Local data from 2001 to 2005 were considered in all population projections and forecasts.
Table 1k lists the counties and cities where the local data resulted in a calibration of the model.
The accompanying graphs illustrate the effect of the calibrations on the county projections.
Table 1k – County and City model calibrations
County/City
Calibrated
Bryan County
Yes
City of Pembroke
No
City of Richmond Hill
Yes
Bulloch County
City of Brooklet
City of Portal
City of Register
City of Statesboro
Camden County
Yes
Yes
Yes
City of St. Marys
Yes
City of Woodbine
No
City of Bloomingdale
Garden City
Yes
2001 – 2005 building
permits; Crew and family
added for three additional
submarines at Kings Bay
Submarine Base
2001 – 2005 certificates of
occupancy
2001 – 2005 certificates of
occupancy; 2005 U.S.
Census estimates
2001 – 2005 building
permits
No
No
City of Pooler
Yes
City of Port Wentworth
City of Savannah
City of Thunderbolt
City of Tybee Island
City of Vernonburg
No
No
No
No
No
Effingham County
Yes
City of Guyton
Yes
Georgia Coast 2030
2001 – 2005 certificates of
occupancy
2001 – 2005 building
permits; 375 residents
added in 2010 to account
for increased on-campus
housing
No
No
No
No
City of Kingsland
Chatham County
Calibration Data
2001 – 2005 certificates of
occupancy
2001 – 2005 building
permits; 2005 U.S. Census
estimates
2001 – 2005 building
permits; Georgia OPB 2010
and 2015 estimates
2001 – 2005 building
89
County/City
Calibrated
City of Rincon
Yes
City of Springfield
Yes
Glynn County
Yes
City of Brunswick
Liberty County
City of Allenhurst
City of Flemington
City of Hinesville
City of Midway
City of Riceboro
City of Walthourville
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
Long County
Yes
City of Ludowici
Yes
City of Darien
Screven County
No
Georgia Coast 2030
2001 – 2005 school
enrollment data
No
McIntosh County
City of Hiltonia
City of Newington
City of Oliver
City of Rocky Ford
City of Sylvania
Calibration Data
permits; 2005 U.S. Census
estimates
2001 – 2005 building
permits
2001 – 2005 building
permits
2001 – 2005 certificates of
occupancy
Yes
2001 – 2005 certificates of
occupancy
2001 – 2005 certificates of
occupancy
No
No
No
No
No
90
Figure 2k - Bryan County Population Projection to 2030, calibrated and uncalibrated
Bryan County
50000
45000
people
40000
Projected Population
35000
Uncalibrated Model
30000
25000
20000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
year
Georgia Coast 2030
91
Figure 3k - Bulloch County Population Projection to 2030, calibrated and uncalibrated
Bulloch County
90000
80000
people
70000
Projected Poulation
60000
Uncalibrated Model
50000
40000
30000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
year
Georgia Coast 2030
92
Figure 4k - Camden County Population Projection to 2030, calibrated and uncalibrated
Camden County
75,000
70,000
65,000
Projected
Population
people
60,000
Uncalibrated Model
55,000
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
year
Georgia Coast 2030
93
Figure 5k - Chatham County Population Projection to 2030, calibrated and uncalibrated
Chatham County
320000
310000
300000
people
290000
280000
Projected Population
270000
Uncalibrated Model
260000
250000
240000
230000
220000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
year
Georgia Coast 2030
94
Figure 6k - Effingham County Population Projection to 2030, calibrated and uncalibrated
Effingham County
90000
80000
people
70000
Projected Population
60000
Uncalibrated Model
50000
40000
30000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
year
Georgia Coast 2030
95
Figure 7k - Glynn County Population Projection to 2030, calibrated and uncalibrated
Glynn County
110000
100000
people
90000
80000
Population Projection
70000
Uncalibrated Model
60000
50000
40000
30000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
year
Georgia Coast 2030
96
Figure 8k - Long County Population Projection to 2030, calibrated and uncalibrated
Long County
24000
22000
people
20000
18000
Projected Population
Uncalibrated Model
16000
14000
12000
10000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
year
Georgia Coast 2030
97
Figure 9k - McIntosh County Population Projection to 2030, calibrated and uncalibrated
McIntosh County
20000
19000
18000
people
17000
16000
Projected
Population
15000
14000
Uncalibrated Model
13000
12000
11000
10000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
year
Georgia Coast 2030
98
Figure 10k - Screven County Population Projection to 2030, calibrated and uncalibrated
Screven County
30000
25000
people
20000
Projected Population
15000
Uncalibrated Model
10000
5000
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
year
Georgia Coast 2030
99
Georgia Coast 2030
100
References
Isserman, Andrew M. (1993), “The Right People, The Right Places: Making Population
Estimates with an Inter-regional Cohort Component Model.” Journal of the American
Planning Association, Vol. 59, No. 1.
Klosterman, Richard (1990), Community Analysis and Planning Techniques. Savage, Md.,
Rowman & Littlefield.
State of Georgia Office of Planning and Budget. Georgia 2015 Population Projections.
State of Georgia DHR Division of Public Health Mortality and Birth Statistics
U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 census and 2005 population estimates.
U.S. Census Bureau. 1995 – 2000 county-to-county migration patterns.
Woods and Poole Economics, Inc. 2005 Complete Economic and Demographic Data Source
Acknowledgements
This study was commissioned by the Coastal Georgia Regional Development Center. It was
written under the direction of Catherine L. Ross, Ph.D., director of the Center for Quality Growth
and Regional Development (CQGRD), and Jason Barringer, research scientist at CQGRD.
Contributors include Saskia Benjamin, Andrea Foard, Karen Leone de Nie, David Pierce, and
Jason Vargo, all members of the CQGRD staff. Dr. Thomas D. Boston, Professor of Economics,
Georgia Tech School of Economics, provided technical assistance. Joy Wilkins, CEcD,
Manager, Community Innovation, with Georgia Tech’s Enterprise Innovation Institute, provided
interview support.
We would also like to extend our appreciation to: Vernon Martin, Executive Director, and the
staff at the Coastal Georgia Regional Development Center, the individual cities and counties of
the coastal Georgia region for providing local data and names of stakeholders to be interviewed
during the project, and to Bill Lattimore and Coastal Market Graphics.
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101