What
Leakage?
Presented by
Luce Bureau
Director Air Service Development
Plattsburgh NY (PBG)
Burlington (BTV)
0ne hour drive plus US customs
Two hour drive plus US customs
Comparison
Distance from MTL
Downtown (miles)
Traveling time
Highway
Parking fees –
one week in Jan. 2016
Carriers serving US
No US destinations
(Jan 2016)
3
Montréal YUL
Plattsburgh
PBG
Burlington BTV
3.2 miles
75 miles
103 miles
15 minutes
One hour plus US
Customs
Yes
$56 usd
$78 cad
G4,KS,NK
Two hours plus US
Customs
No
$84 usd
$118 cad
AA,B6,DL,G4,UA
4
11
Yes
$87 cad
Incl. tax
AA, AC, DL,
TS,UA,WG,WS
23
No of US Flights /week
(Jan 2016)
559
28
199
No of seats to US/week
(Jan 2016)
47,563
2,818
13,654
Comparison $
Departure (one
week)
Jan. 7, 2016 search
Airline
BTV-FLL-BTV
Jetblue - 1 cnx
2016-01-15
USD
2016-02-15
2016-03-15
website
362.30 $
447.50 $
377.46 $
cheapoair
PBG-FLL-PBG
equiv cad
Spirit - non stop
USD
507.22 $
207.77 $
626.50 $
200.90 $
528.44 $
200.90 $
cheapoair
YUL-FLL-YUL
AC - nonstop
equiv cad
CAD
290.88 $
351.73 $
281.26 $
351.73 $
281.26 $
351.73 $
Expedia
YUL-FLL-YUL
Sunwing - nonstop
CAD
300.45 $
342.45 $
510.45 $
Sunwing
Exchange rate CAD for 1 $ USD
vs Onboards PBG-BTV
1.50
1.40
80,000
70,000
1.30
1.20
60,000
1.10
50,000
1.00
40,000
0.90
30,000
0.80
0.70
0.60
5
20,000
10,000
6
Seats
Onboards
2014 var
Apr 2016
2014 var
Mar 2016
Feb 2016
Jan 2016
Seats
150,000
100,000
YUL-USA Demand vs Capacity
250,000
12%
200,000
10%
8%
6%
50,000
4%
2%
0
0%
Onboards
2014 var
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
BTV Demand vs Capacity
Dec 2015
Nov 2015
Oct 2015
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
Sep 2015
Aug 2015
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Jul 2015
Jun 2015
May 2015
Apr 2015
Mar 2015
Onboards
Feb 2015
Jan 2015
Seats
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
2015
PBG Demand vs Capacity
25,000
15%
20,000
10%
15,000
5%
0%
10,000
-5%
5,000
-10%
-15%
0
-20%
PBG - BTV - YUL Onboards
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
PBG
BTV
YUL
PBG - BTV - YUL Seats
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
7
PBG
BTV
YUL
100%
Point of Sales
Column 1-Cda, Column 2-US, Column 3-Oth markets
2015 vs 2014
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
CDA
US
Europe
2015
Car/Mex
2014
Ticket purchases by Americans for travel between YUL and all four
sectors have increased in 2015.
8
Top 25 U.S.
Jan. to Sept (ppdew)
700
40%
600
30%
500
20%
400
10%
300
0%
200
-10%
0
-20%
FLL
LGA
MCO
LAS
LAX
MIA
ORD
SFO
EWR
BOS
DCA
DFW
ATL
TPA
PHL
IAD
JFK
PHX
DEN
IAH
SAN
SEA
MSP
MDW
PBI
100
Variation 2014 vs 2015
Top 3
Winners
Loosers
9
JFK
SFO
LAX
PBI
MCO
LAS
Demand Capacity
35%
8%
21%
11%
20%
24%
-16%
-13%
-10%
6%
2%
9%
10
Capacity (sts)
E&D ow
avr-16
mars-16
fev 2016
janv-16
dec 2015
nov-15
oct-15
sept-15
aout 2015
juil-15
juin-15
mai 2015
avr 2015
mars 2015
févr 2015
janv 2015
déc 2014
nov 2014
oct 2014
sept 2014
août 2014
juil 2014
juin 2014
mai 2014
avr 2014
mars 2014
févr 2014
janv 2014
YUL needs more capacity
YUL- USA
Demand vs Capacity
PLF 77%
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
• The Canadian
_
dollar lost
30 per cent since 2014
• No sign of recovery in
2016
• US Capacity stable
• More US tourists
• More 6th freedom traffic