HORIZON 2030
Predicting The Demands Of Tomorrow
Dr James Bellini
blog.KNOWLEDGEshare.com
In association with
Brain map of the futurist
History
Geography
Sociology
Science
Arts
KEY KNOWLEDGE AREAS
Psychology
Geo-politics
Energy
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Statistics
Technology
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Facts of the future
By 2025 total healthcare spending in the GCC region
will reach $60 bn
Between now and 2030 there’ll be more scientific
advances than in the whole of the 20th century
Up to 2035 the global infrastructure spend will exceed $50 trillion
To build a post-carbon world we need to replace each year
the equivalent of a cubic mile of oil
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Future age of disruption
The next 10 to 15 years will see more disruptive
innovation than in the whole of the 20th century.
The impact on the global economy will
be unprecedented.
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Future age of disruption
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2030:
Big picture challenges
Address global shift
SOLVE WATER SCARCITY
Feed the billions
Drive post-carbon agenda
Create sustainable business
Manage urban explosion
Tackle jobs and talent crisis
Build a smarter world
Care for ageing citizens
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Horizon 2030:
A changing world
The next 10 to 15 years will see dramatic changes
in the geography of the global economy.
But in which direction? And what are the
implications for future global markets?
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Reality check on today
CURRENT
THE
TRANSATLANTIC
PATTERNS OF
ECONOMY
GLOBAL SEA-TRADE
$5 trillion
in total commercial sales
77%
of equity-linked derivatives
54%
of world GDP
Over 70%
of debt securities
Two-thirds
of global banking assets
80%
of interest-rate derivatives
75%
of global financial services
93%
of global forex holdings: $, € or £
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BRICS:
The key facts
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46% of world population
Combined foreign
reserves $4 trillion
26% of Earth’s
land mass
International trade
$6.1 trillion a year
Combined GDP $16
trillion – 24% world GDP
Intra-BRICS trade
$500 bn a year
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Future mass markets
GROWTH OF INDIA’S MIDDLE CLASS
the 20th century the reference point for all
“ Inmarketing
was the American consumer. If you
ms
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
“By 2025 China will have a
middle class of about 520 m
people”
made it in America you’d make it everywhere.
The reference point in the future will be the
McKinsey
Asian consumer. They are excited to be on
the world stage.
2006
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2025
”
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Horizon 2030:
Changing map of trade
The marine world in 2030 will be almost unrecognisable owing to the rise of emerging countries, new
consumer classes and resource demand
“Global seaborne trade will increase from 9 bn
tonnes a year to between 19 and 24 bn tonnes”
“China will become the world superpower in every
area of commercial shipping”
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Century of the city
A MAJORITY OF THE WORLD’S POPULATION LIVES IN CITIES
are witnessing the biggest economic
“ We
transformation ever seen as the populations
Population in bn
8
6
4
2
0
of cities in emerging markets expand and enjoy
Urban
rising incomes – producing a game-changing
new wave of consumers with considerable Rural
McKinsey, Global Institute
spending power.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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”
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Century of the (eastern) city
Since 2008 we are now an urban world –
65 m people leave the land each year
“By 2025, we expect 136 new cities to
enter the top 600, all of them from the
developing world and overwhelmingly
(100 new cities) from China”
McKinsey Global Institute
Austral
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World trade heading south?
“We are witnessing the creation of a Southern Silk Road,
a network of new “South-South” trading routes connecting Asia,
the Middle East, Africa and Latin America”
HSBC
“South-South trade as a share of global trade is projected
to double by 2030, rising from 13 to 27%.”
Anderson & Strutt,
The Changing Geography of World Trade
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World trade heads south
“The share of South-South trade in total world exports
has doubled over the last 20 years”
UNCTAD
“With the formation of new trade and capital market
connections South-South trade growth is about to
become turbocharged.”
HSBC
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Rise of ‘Hybrid’ manufacturing
Creates global value chainsTewkesbury
Exton
Vitré
Strängnäs
Puy-Guillaume
Takes account of all variablesBarcelona
in manufacturing process
Karachi
Shenzhen
Neweconomies
Delhi
Production functions split between high-cost and low-cost
Must understand contributions different managers/countries can make
Sao Paolo
Johannesburg
Success demands ‘open attitudes’ and ‘interest in learning from others’
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The 3D revolution
‘3D Printing’, or ‘additive manufacturing’ as it is also
known, has the potential to become the biggest
single disruptive phenomenon to impact global
industry since assembly lines were introduced in
early twentieth century America.
In 2012 up to 30% of finished products already
involve some kind of 3D printing. By 2016,
this is expected to rise to 50% and by 2020
potentially up to 80%.
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A western renaissance?
“
“
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Manufacturing facilities could be sited close to
the customer in Europe or North America where
there would be fewer quality control issues and
more responsiveness to market needs
”
Goods previously produced in China or other
Asia markets could be ‘near-sourced’ to North
America and Europe. This would reduce
shipping and air cargo volumes.
”
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2030s:
The African decade?
“Africa could be on the brink of an economic take
off like China was 30 years ago.”
Africa Regional Strategy Blueprint
on Africa’s Future and World Bank
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Africa:
Youngest continent
WORLD MEDIAN AGES
Youngest
1. Niger
2. Uganda
3. Mali
4. Malawi
5. Zambia
(15.1)
(15.5)
(16.0)
(16.3)
(16.7)
Oldest
1. Germany & Japan
2. Italy
3. Austria
4. Virgin Islands
(46.1)
(44.5)
(44.3)
(44.2)
Source: CIA Factbook
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Africa:
Future food market
UN POPULATION PROJECTIONS
FOR AFRICA AND CHINA
FOOD DEMAND
Index (2000 = 10)
Africa
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
China
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Source: United Nations (medium fertility scenario)
http://esa.org/unpd/Excel-Data/population.htm;
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com; February 12, 2014
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500
400
300
200
100
0
2000
2010
Sub-Saharan Africa
India and South Asia
Developed countries
2020
2030
2070
2050
Middle East and North Africa
Latin America
China and Southeast Asia
World
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Horizon 2020:
Two decades of GCC growth
Population 53.5 m
[up 30% on 2000]
United Arab
Emirates
Saudi Arabia
Oman
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Real GDP up 56% from 2000
Nominal GDP reaches
$2 trillion [$341 bn in 2000]
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GCC:
Population boom
In m
80
Above 60 years
60
40
14-60 years
20
0-14 years
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Source: World Bank
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After oil:
Scale of the challenge
HOW MUCH
is needed?
104 coal
fired plants
1 CUBIC
MILE OIL
4 three
gorges dams
The world uses
almost 1 mile3 of oil
each year.
Each of the generators in the figure
could produce
1/50th of that energy.
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32,520 wind
turbines
91,250,00
solar panels
52 nuclear
power plants
Every year for 50 years
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Horizon 2030:
GCC renewables agenda
THE
PHYSICAL POTENTIAL
RENEWABLE
 OF
Renewable
energyENERGIES
projects are beginning
RENEWABLES
to emerge on the back of renewable energy
Current global primary energy consumption
ON THE RISE
targets proposed
(GPEC) by many GCC member
countries Solar radiation (continents)
x GPEC)
 Most GCC (1,800
member
countries have min
Wind energy (200 x GPEC)
5% renewable energy procurement target
Biomass (20 x GPEC)
by 2020

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Geothermal energy (10 x GPEC)
More than Ocean
9000 and
MWwave
is either
under
energy(2
x GPEC)
construction
orenergy(1
under xplanning
stages
Hydro
GPEC)
Atmospheric Energy
(@ and
150 xwind
GPEC)
in GCC – dominated
by solar
added by Volker Thomsen
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After oil:
Future Gulf opportunities
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Thank you!
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