May 21st, 2007 - Trades good through June 8th, 2007 - Next Issue June 11th, 2007 ~ Hartfield Management Inc., C.T.A.
Commodity Outlook
While macroeconomic sentiment continues to
question the sustainability of growth in the US, a
least a portion of the US numbers indicate (and
certainly the global equity markets think) that
growth will be able to recover later this year.
With several members of the Fed predicting a
recovery in growth rates later this year and inflation threats seemingly subsiding, the US economy
might only be left with a nagging threat from
soaring gasoline prices as its primary barrier.
Certainly precious and base metals prices have
detected a bit of slowing, and a number of commodity markets like copper are fearful of more
Chinese monetary tightening. However, the ongoing strength in the equity markets has many
economists and analysts suggesting that any
slowing will be short lived and shallow. In our
opinion, physical commodity demand is globally
diversified and has, to a certain degree, shown
the ability to be inelastic with minor variations in
economic activity. Therefore, we don’t expect to
see any major demand setbacks unless they are
in the process of presenting themselves. The
copper market has been a fairly efficient leading
economic indicator, perhaps even a benchmark
physical commodity, over the past two and half
years, and therefore the direction of copper
prices in the coming weeks might be a valuable
predictive tool. With the copper market primarily
being driven by the ebb and flow of Chinese demand expectations, copper prices would seem to
be a very important global commodities gauge.
With nearby copper prices at certain points last
week as much as $1.36 below the April highs, it
would certainly seem like copper prices were acknowledging some type of moderating of Chinese
demand. In fact, with at least a portion of the
selling in the copper market over the last two
June 2007 Dow Jones
US MONTHLY HOUSING STARTS
weeks reportedly coming off fears that prompt
copper supplies inside China were backing up,
we are probably correct in expecting the near
term action in copper prices to be an indicator of
the health of the Chinese demand machine.
However, one should also note that the IMF and
the US Federal Reserve think that global growth
is holding together and that even stronger growth
is expected as the summer unfolds. Certainly, a
major impediment to accelerating US growth will
be determined by US gasoline prices, but with
last week’s oil inventory data from the US showing an attempt to rebuild inventory levels, it is
possible that energy prices will remain under control for at least a couple more weeks. In short,
unless the Chinese surprise the markets with another tightening move, there would seem to be
little to prevent an ongoing upward bias in physical commodity prices this summer.
Weekly Nearby Copper
Monthly Percent Change
13800
13600
450
15
400
10
350
13400
13200
12800
cents / lb
5
13000
0
12600
-5
12400
12200
300
250
200
-10
150
12000
-15
11800
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
Gasoline Strategies
US EIA GASOLINE STOCKS
15 Year Average vs 2006 & 2007
230
In Millions of Barrels/Day
225
220
215
210
205
200
195
190
Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun
15 Year Average
Jul Aug Sep
2007
Sep
Nov
06
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
Oct Nov Dec
2006
While the gasoline market eventually proved us
wrong on our prediction of a moderate May correction following the late April top, it should be
noted that the fundamental basis for our “temporary” correction forecast was initially justified by
the weekly inventory data. However, as has
consistently been the case in the energy complex
over the last four years, the presence of surprising supply setbacks at the refinery level and in
Nigeria seemed to save the market from falling
back aggressively. The market did manage a 13
cent early May correction off the combination of
a minor weekly gasoline stocks build and perhaps off of ideas that the US Government was
going to attempt to work prices lower. While the
second critical May weekly inventory report (as
of May 11th) actually showed above expectation
builds in the both the API (+2.1 mb) and the
100
Jan-05
May-07
EIA of (+1.7 mb), the annual deficits remain a
problem, especially with implied gasoline demand
for the week coming in 1% above year ago levels. In other words, despite record retail gasoline
prices, demand in 2007 is running above 2006!
Without sounding like a broken record, it should
still be noted that the time to continue rebuilding
US gasoline supplies is upon the market, with
some suggesting that the prime rebuilding window will only afford two more weeks in which
supply will easily outdistance demand.
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
highs prior to the most recent weekly inventory
data only showed a high of $2.45. Therefore,
seeing US gasoline supply markedly tighter than
year ago levels would seem to suggest that recent gasoline prices aren’t nearly as excessive as
the press and trade might want to project. In fact,
with the US refinery operating rate also running
markedly below the 5 year average rate and the
stocks in deficit, one quickly understands why the
bull camp is emboldened.
Our biggest concern for the bull camp stems
As we noted in our last newsletter, last year the
from the threat of government intervention in the
gasoline market did see a pattern of stock gains
form of price restrictions or surprise changes in
throughout the month of May, and to keep gasogasoline grade rules. On the other hand, with the
line prices from exploding ahead of any 2007 hurmarket already seeing a named tropical storm
ricane threats, it probably requires more builds in
this year and a number of forecasters predicting
the remaining May weekly readings. To take a
a more active 2007 hurricane season than in
quick measure of the current US energy situa2006, we would not expect the product market to
tion, one should note
R E C E N T TR O P IC AL S T O R M AC T IV ITY
that US EIA gasoF irst N am ed
line stocks as of
T o ta l Sto rm s in
T o tal
M ajo r H u rrican es
Se aso n
S
to
rm
&
D
ate
th
e
S
eas
on
H
u
rrican
es
(C a t 3 +)
May 11th showed a
1 997
A na
Jun 30
8
N /A
1
deficit to year ago
1 998
A le x
Jul 27
14
N /A
3
levels of 18 million
1 999
A rlene
Jun 11
12
N /A
5
barrels, but gasoline
2 000
A lb erto
A ug 3
15
7
3
2 001
A llison
Jun 5
15
9
4
prices on the weekly
2 002
Arth ur
Jul 14
12
4
2
chart for the same
2 003
A na
A pr 18
16
7
3
week a year ago
2 004
A le x
Jul 31
15
8
6
2 005
A rlene
Jun 8
28
15
7
managed a spike up
2 006
A lb erto
Jun 10
10
5
2
to $2.50, while the
2 007
And re a
M ay 9
1
0
0
This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions
expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/
or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such
an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Hartfield Management, Inc. is strictly prohibited.
The data contained herein is subject to revision; independent verification is recommended. Any third party opinions regarding this report are not necessarily those of the authors.
DUE TO THE VOLATILE NATURE OF FUTURES MARKETS, THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN MAY BE OUTDATED UPON ITS RELEASE.
With the possibility of gasoline stocks levels rebuilding staring the market in the face over the
next few weeks, the June and July RBOB options might be the best way to trade what could
become an extremely volatile market. In the end,
we think the bull camp will prevail, provided a
pattern of gasoline stock rebuilding doesn’t occur.
US EIA REFINERY OPERATING RATE
5 Year Average vs 2007
96
In Percent
94
92
90
88
86
84
Jan Feb Mar Apr
May Jun Jul
15 Year Average
Aug Sep
Oct Nov Dec
2007
Suggested Trading Strategies: 1) Buy July
RBOB futures at $2.23 and then sell a June
RBOB $2.38 call for 300 points and buy a
June RBOB $2.23 put for 380 points. 2) Buy
an August RBOB $2.30/$2.41 bull call spread
for 300 points with an objective of 800 points.
Risk the combination to a net loss of 200
points.
Corn Strategies
The first look at the 2007/2008 season sparked
a sharp rally in corn last week, as the USDA
demand numbers were stronger than expected
and the trend yield forecast was a bit lower than
expected. As a result, there is no room for any
weather scare or abnormality that could cause
average yield to deviate from the USDA projection, which assumes normal weather. In addition,
world stocks are expected to tighten again for
the coming year, despite the highest planted area
in corn since 1944, a shift to higher production in
South America and an expectation for record
corn production of 146 million tonnes in China.
Even with the huge planted area, normal yield
will not allow much of an increase in stocks. In
fact, the 7.6% stocks/usage ratio for 2007/08
posted in the report last Friday ranks as the second tightest in history. The market experienced
an “outside day up” the day the report was released and took on the appearance of a resumption of the longer term uptrend. The USDA
pegged US ending stocks at 947 million bushels
for 2007/08, which was below the pre-report average trade estimate near 1.023 billion bushels.
Total usage for 2007/08 was pegged at 12.465
billion bushels versus 11.575 billion for 2006/07.
Corn used to produce ethanol is expected to
jump to 3.4 billion bushels for the coming season,
which would represent 27% of the total crop and
significantly exceed the US corn export forecast
USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND
US CORN
Planted Area (M Acres)
Harvested Area (Acres)
Yield (Bu/Acre)
Beginning Stocks (M Bu)
Production
Imports
Supply, Total
Feed & Residual
Food, Seed & Industry
Ethanol for Fuel
Domestic Total
Total Exports
Use, Total
Ending Stocks
Stocks/Use Ratio
Higher
Yield
90.5
82.9
155.0
02-03
78.9
69.3
129.3
03-04
78.6
70.9
142.2
04-05
80.9
73.6
160.4
1,718
9,915
7
11,639
1,899
9,503
10
11,412
1,596
8,967
14
10,578
1,087
10,089
14
11,190
958
11,807
11
12,776
2,114
11,114
9
13,237
1,967
10,535
10
12,512
937
12,460
15
13,412
937
12,021
15
12,973
937
12,460
15
13,412
937
12,850
15
13,802
5,842
1,957
5,864
2,046
7,799
1,941
9,740
1,899
7,911
1,905
9,815
1,596
5,563
2,340
996
7,903
1,588
9,491
1,087
5,795
2,537
1,168
8,332
1,900
10,232
958
6,158
2,686
1,323
8,844
1,818
10,662
2,114
6,141
2,981
1,603
9,122
2,147
11,270
1,967
5,850
3,525
2,150
9,375
2,200
11,575
937
5,700
4,790
3,400
10,490
1,975
12,465
947
5,700
4,790
3,400
10,490
1,975
12,465
508
5,700
4,790
3,400
10,490
1,975
12,465
947
5,700
4,790
3,400
10,490
1,975
12,465
1,337
19.5%
16.3%
11.5%
9.4%
19.8%
17.5%
8.1%
7.6%
4.1%
7.6%
10.7%
While the weather looks to turn dry in the Midwest and the intended acres look to get planted,
the focus of attention seems to be quickly shifting
to the abnormally dry forecast for the Midwest
for the next week or so, along with warmer and
drier than normal weather experienced this spring
in the southeastern US, as there are concerns
that these dry conditions could spread into the
eastern Corn Belt.
If US average yield comes in near 145 bu/acre,
which would be down just 3.5% from the current
trendline yield used in the USDA forecast last
week, ending stocks could drop to near 508 million bushels in 2007/08 from 937 million in 2006/
07. This would leave a stocks/usage ratio of just
4.1%, a record low. On the other hand, a yield of
155 bushels/acre brought on by good weather
could bring ending stocks to 1.34 billion bushels
U.S. CORN YIELD
ACTUAL VS. TRENDLINE
180
160.4
150.3
140
120
100
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07
CROP YEAR BEGINNING
Actual Yield
2007-08 Crop Outlook
Lower
USDA
Yield
Yield
90.5
90.5
82.9
82.9
145.0
150.3
01-02
75.8
68.8
138.2
Talk of a developing La Nina pattern which
might cause warmer and drier than normal conditions for the Midwest along with dryness concerns in China may have helped spark some of
the buying support last week. In addition, it is the
time of the year when traders begin to look at
“what if” yield scenarios for the coming season
in order to determine the need or lack of need for
a weather premium. While beginning stocks are
relatively tight, the sharp jump in planted area
should cause the market to remain hyper-sensitive to crop developments.
80
May
USDA
07-08
90.5
82.9
150.3
00-01
79.6
72.4
136.9
On top of the second tightest domestic situation
in history, the market also faces extreme tightness in the world outlook, with world corn ending
stocks pegged at just 90.25 million tonnes for
2007/08, the lowest since 1983/84, and a stocks/
usage of just 11.7%, which is the lowest on
record going back to 1960. The forecasts above
assume normal weather, but the expanding
drought in the North China Plain is a concern. In
Henan province, China’s “breadbasket,” rainfall
since March has been down 70% on the average
for the last two years. This has traders already
questioning the record crop forecast. China’s
ending stocks are pegged at just 25.9 million
tonnes, which will mark the 8th year in a row of
tightening stocks from 124 million in 1999.
160
May
USDA
06-07
78.3
70.6
149.1
May
USDA
05-06
81.8
75.1
148.0
of 1.975 billion bushels. This is up from 2.15 billion bushels in 2006/07, 1.6 billion last year and
1.3 billion two years ago. The USDA numbers
were much tighter than trade expectations, and it
will not take much in the way of a weather scare
to attract new buying and the building of a
weather premium.
BUSHELS/ACRE
top in early May the way it did last year. In
looking at the enclosed table one might not be
able to glean a distinct correlation between an
early named tropical storm and more activity in
that year but one might be able to conclude that
with the exception of 2006, the propensity for a
greater number of storms seen in recent years.
(Some additional hurricane analysis is contained on page 3 of this newsletter, and those
expected to be involved with the energy markets in the months ahead had better be aware
of the importance of Gulf of Mexico weather,
as the perception of a supply threat will be
almost as important as an actual disruption
early.)
TRENDLINE YIELD
and the stocks/usage ratio closer to 10.7%. This
would still be down from 17.5% for 2005/06 and
19.8% for 2004/05.
University studies indicate that corn planted after May 20th could yield 3 bushels fewer per
acre than corn planted earlier in the spring. As of
Sunday, May 13th, Iowa producers had planted
just 70% of the crop as compared with 92% last
year. Total US corn planting progress as of May
13th stood at 78% completed compared to 53%
the previous week and 83% last year. The 10
year average planting progress for this time of
year is 73%. A solid demand trend for exports,
domestic feed usage and monthly ethanol usage
suggests that traders will accept the solid demand
numbers in the USDA forecast as credible.
Funds were noted buyers of approximately
14,000 contracts on Friday, May 11th, the day the
USDA report was released. Prior to that, trendfollowing fund traders had lowered their net long
position from a peak of 312,921 contracts in February to 139,602 as of May 8th. A turn higher in
open interest, if it occurs, will be seen as a positive technical development. The market looks
vulnerable to increased fund buying and increased small trader short covering if resistance
levels are violated. It will take nearly perfect
weather to see a major increase in stocks for the
coming season, and the recent break back to
near a 50% retracement of the September to
February rally could be a sign that the liquidation
sell-off is nearly complete.
Suggested Trading Strategies: 1) Buy December corn at 369 with an objective of 457 3/
4. Risk the trade to 354 1/2. 2) Buy the September 380/480 bull call spread for around
21 cents with an objective of 63. Risk 8 cents
from entry.
Soy Complex
November soybeans rallied at least 40 cents in
the four trading sessions following the USDA
May 11th Supply/Demand report which gave
traders a first look at the new crop season. The
USDA pegged ending stocks for 2007/08 at 320
million bushels, which was below the average
trade estimate of 366 million bushels and down
from 610 million for 2006/07. With this projection,
US soybean ending stocks will have been cut
almost in half from last year, and the stocks to
usage ratio will fall to 10.5% from over 20%.
With such a sharp reduction coming on the assumption of normal growing weather this season,
the trade is already getting concerned that the
market will face an extremely tight ending stocks
situation for the 2008/2009 season unless planted
acreage increases or demand is displaced to
South America from the US. As a result, the
trade perceives the need for higher soybean values in order to entice South American producers
to produce more for the coming season. This has
helped provide a solid base of support to the market.
Suggested Trading Strategies: 1) Buy November Soybeans at 797 1/2 with an objective
of 877. Risk to a close under 786. 2) Buy
December soybean oil at 35.05 with an objective of 36.88. Risk to 34.49. 3) Buy December
soybean meal at 214.80 with an objective of
232.90. Risk to 211.40.
SOYBEAN OIL USED FOR BIODIESEL
Million Pounds
250
2003 through 2005 = Average Monthly Soybean Oil Use
200
220.0
186.2
169.0
146.0
150
141.5
167.8
157.8
157.2
153.2
147.5
137.5
104.4106.6
100
55.4
50
41.2
IN METRIC TONS
2700
2600
2500
2400
2300
Gold Strategies
64.8
TOTAL WORLD GOLD MINE PRODUCTION
2200
9.9 11.4
0
03 04 05 JanFebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSepOctNovDec 07 FebMar
News that the USDA left export projections for
the new crop season at over 1 billion bushels
despite the sharp rise in the South American harvest just completed was also seen as a positive
development. Brazil and Argentina crop estimates were left unchanged from last month at
58.8 and 45.5 million tonnes respectively. This
pushed the combined production to 104.3 million
tonnes or up 7% from last year. China’s imports
were reduced by 1 million tonnes to 30 million, as
total usage was revised down to 46.85 million
tonnes.
In the report, world ending stocks for 2006/07
were pegged at 61.89 million tonnes versus 61.02
million reported last month and 53.84 million
tonnes for 2005/06. Recent egg data suggests
increasing poultry production into the summer,
which is seen as a supportive force for the meal
market. Wholesale prices for chicken breast
jumped to average $1.85 per pound last week
from $1.70 the previous week and $1.13 one
year ago. The May 9th Hatchery report showed
that poultry producers set 218 million eggs in incubators during the week ending May 5, 2007.
This was up 3 percent from the eggs set the
corresponding week a year earlier.
Soybean oil prices rallied to new contract highs
on Friday after the USDA report and again on
Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of last week,
as US ending stocks are expected to drop 2.179
billion pounds for 2007/08 from 2.954 billion in
2006/07. The USDA began reporting domestic
use for methyl ester (bio-diesel) in the supply/
demand report, with the 2007/08 figure coming in
at 3.8 billion pounds, up from 2.55 billion in 2006/
07 and 1.557 billion in 2005/06. (See enclosed
chart for an update of the recent monthly usage
numbers.) A surge in palm oil to a new 9-year
high added to the bullish tone. Palm prices were
buoyed by an 11.65% reduction in palm oil stocks
for the month of April, the lowest in 3 years.
Palm oil output rose 4.11% in April, which was
lower than expected, while exports grew 5.9%.
Higher palm oil prices relative to soybean oil
prices could support a bounce in soybean oil demand despite the recent run-up in prices.
Total US soybean usage is forecast at
3.039 billion bushels for 2007/08 versus
3.032 billion for 2006/07, and US exports
are estimated at 1.080 billion bushels for
2007/08 versus 1.080 billion for 2006/07.
The US crush was pegged at a new
record high 1.79 billion bushels for the
2007/08 season, so the anticipated drop in
soybean oil ending stocks is a significant
concern. The surge higher in palm, a jump
in energy prices and a declining ending
stock outlook should be seen as supportive
factors for soybean oil. Statistics Canada
pegged canola stocks at 4.277 million
tonnes, which is down 16.4% from last
year. The market seems to have already
absorbed the bearish upfront supply situation, and the USDA reports were supportive enough to suggest the need for a
weather premium.
Unquestionably, the main hallmark of the 2006
and 2007 bull market run in the gold market has
been the perpetual weakness in the US Dollar.
However, the sustainability of bullish conditions
in gold would seem to be dependent upon a long
list of classic fundamental themes. Perhaps more
importantly, the bullish setup in the precious metals market also seems to be built on very sustainable, longer term historical shifts in financial market practices. In addition to a continued tightening of supply and demand conditions over the
coming 12 months, gold and silver are also experiencing a return to prominence as an asset class.
In fact, after seeing gold summarily declared a
“non performing asset” by the world’s central
bank community as recently as mid-2001, the re-
Foreign Reserves
Estimated Share Held in Gold
US
76% Gold
Germany, France, Italy
63% Gold
Spain, Austria
45.5% Gold
Japan
1.8% Gold
China
1.2% Gold
surgence of these assets could be considered is a
tectonic shift. While gold and silver have already
regained a certain share of the global investment
allocation, with the Dollar seemingly set to fall as
other global economic powerhouses emerge and
the idea that true global diversification is set to
present itself over the coming years, it would
seem as though the duration of the gold and silver
bull market could be quite extensive. In the end,
the factors that appear to be poised to drive gold
and silver even higher over the next 2-3 years
are: a sinking Dollar, financial investment diversification, classic commodity supply/demand tightness, flight to quality buying, geopolitical uncertainty buying and, perhaps the most dominating of
all factors, true global commodity price inflation.
In short, the near term looks to be driven by the
Dollar, the intermediate term by global diversification and in the long term by classic and perhaps historic inflation arising from the commodity
sector. With the World Gold Council and the
South African government both expecting gold
production to continue to decline through the end
2100
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
of 2007 and the majority of gold producers continuing to lift gold hedges, it would certainly seem
like supply will remain supportive of the bull case.
While the “de-hedging” of gold positions by major
producers is expected to slow down later in 2007,
the consolidation of the gold mining sector has
perhaps given the producers more of a say in
what gold prices should be. In other words, seeing the producers hold back on hedging would
seem to imply that they want even higher prices
before they begin to sell forward. Therefore, until
the majority of the hedges are unwound and the
miners express an interest in locking in gold
prices, we suspect that prices will continue to
rise.
Certainly the economic slowing detected in the
US from February through May served to prompt
the late February and early March decline in gold
prices, and it might also have had a hand in the
April and May slide in prices. However, with a
series of new investment vehicles like ETF’s still
catching hold, gold futures contracts being
launched in a number of foreign countries, gold
de-hedging expected to continue, gold production
expected to decline further and perhaps even
more labor and wage disputes ahead, we suspect
that the mid January through mid May consolidation zone will end up giving the gold market a
clear-cut fundamental value to work up and
away from. Certainly, June gold prices could see
a return to levels below the $650/ounce level, but
as long as the global economy manages to regather some of its momentum in the second half
of the year and the fundamental track in gold is
left largely unchanged, we suspect that gold will
end the year on an upbeat note, possibly revisiting
the 2006 highs of $732 on the weekly charts.
Suggested Trading Strategies: 1) Buy December gold at $690/buy a December gold
$655 put for 13.00 and then sell a December
gold $740 call for 12.00. Use an objective of
$735 on the long futures and risk the combination to a loss of $1,200. 2) Sell 1 February
2008 gold $700 gold call and buy 3 February
2008 gold 770 calls for a net cost of $400.
Use an objective of $720 basis the futures and
risk a net loss of $1,000 on the combination.
Hurricane Forming Conditions
Warm waters are necessary to fuel the heat engine of the tropical cyclone.
Water temperature of at least 26.5 °C (80°F) needed down to a depth of at least 50 m (150 feet).
Release of latent heat through rapid temperature cooling with increased height provides energy for the tropical storm.
Relatively moist layers near the mid-troposphere (5 km or 3 mi).
Presence of low amounts of wind shear (High wind shear conditions prevent formation of the feedback loop).
Formation within a minimum distance of at least 500 km (300 miles) or 5 degrees from the equator.
Near equator formation allows the Coriolis force to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center, causing a circulation.
A pre-existing near surface system of disturbed weather necessary, with sizable spin and low level inflow.
Increased chances when sea-surface temperatures are much higher than long-term averages (current condition).
Increased chances when El Niño rapidly dissipates prior to the active portion of the hurricane season (current condition).
Colorado State University Forecast of at Least One Major Hurricane Landfall in the 2007 Season
Entire U.S. Coastline: 74% (average for last century is 52%)
U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida: 50% (average for last century is 31%)
Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle Westward to Brownsville, TX: 49% (average for last century is 30%)
Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean
Tropical Storm Activity
Source
Colorado State University
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Record high activity
Record low activity
Colorado State University Prediction for 2007
Colorado State University Prediction for 2007
Actual activity as of 16-May-07
Date/Type
Historical Average
Historical Average
Historical Extreme
Historical Extreme
8-Dec-06
3-Apr-07
Named storms
9.6
11
28
4
14
17
1
Hurricanes
5.9
6.2
15
2
7
9
0
Major hurricanes
2.3
2.7
8
0
3
5
0