Managing currency exposure in Australian superannuation funds with Pete Gunning Chief Executive Officer Asia-Pacific , Russell Investments This Q&A summarises the key areas of currency management, including: »» How volatile is the Australian dollar? »» Does currency add uncertainty to portfolio outcomes? »» How have approaches to currency management changed over time? »» Is there an optimal hedge ratio for all investors? »» What makes the Australia dollar different to other currencies? »» Does hedging mean less risk? »» Why care about currency implementation? »» What are the risks in implementing currency exposures? We also share a case study based on our experience in managing currency exposure actively in Russell’s multiasset funds in Australia. Australian superannuation funds are investing more and more assets globally in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, introducing greater potential currency exposure to portfolios. ASFA recently invited Pete to share Russell’s insights and experience in managing currency exposures, particularly from the perspective of an Australian superannuation fund. How volatile is the Australian dollar? The Australian dollar (AUD) was floated on 12 Dec 1983 @ 90 US cents. The AUD/ USD is now the fourth most traded currency pair, accounting for 7% of global foreign exchange (FX) turnover 1 . In the 30 years since the float, the local currency has sustained long episodes of depreciation and appreciation, as shown in Figure 1. Figure 1: AUD’s long episodic trends 1.6 USD per AUD 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 Source: Bloomberg and Russell Investments Past performance is not an indicator of future performance 1 BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey of foreign exchange and derivatives market activity in April 2013. Daily AUD urnover is $364 billion USD on a net basis. June 2014 Managing currency exposure in Australian superannuation funds “Over this period, the trading range for the Australian dollar has been extremely wide”. Figure 2: AUD vs Purchasing Power Parity 1.10 Rolling 10-year standard deviations 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 AUD/USD – PPP estimate – 1 Std Dev Away --2 Std Dev Away – – 0.40 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Source: Datastream, Russell Investments Over this period, the trading range for the Australian dollar has been extremely wide. Based on Russell’s estimate of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) 2, the Australian dollar has traded more than two standard deviations away from PPP (or fair value), reaching as low as 47.7 US cents in 2001 and as high as USD110.8 in 2011, as shown in Figure 2. The dollar has also experienced short term volatility, plunging more than 15% in the months after Paul Keating’s ‘Banana Republic’ comments 3 and falling more than 30% in mid 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis. Figure 3: Five year rolling standard deviation of different currency pairs (annualised) 18 5 year rolling annualised currency volatility 16 14 12 2 Russell’s PPP estimate provides a useful medium to long-term reference point about the likely direction of currency going forward. It is not designed as a short term timing tool. The PPP estimate is based on the monetary theory of exchange rates and measures how much the AUD buys relative to other currencies (in this example, the USD, by taking into account relative inflation differentials). 3 “If this Government cannot get the adjustment, get manufacturing going again… and a sensible economic policy, then Australia is basically done for. We will end up being a third rate economy... a banana republic. “ Paul Keating on national radio 14 May 1986 2 10 8 6 4 2 0 01 Jan 2004 01 Jan 2005 01 Jan 2006 01 Jan 2007 01 Jan 2008 01 Jan 2009 01 Jan 2010 01 Jan 2011 01 Jan 2012 01 Jan 2013 01 Jan 2014 – EUR/JPY – NZD/USD – AUD/USD – GBP/JPY – USD/CHF – EUR/USD – USD/CAD – JPY/USD – GBP/USD – EUR/GBP – EUR/CHF Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Datastream Figure 3 illustrates how much more volatile the AUD/USD is compared to other major currency pairs and therefore highlights, from a pure volatility standpoint, the extra attention Australian investors need to take when investing overseas. June 2014 Managing currency exposure in Australian superannuation funds “The final portfolio outcome depends on the relative direction and size of the offshore asset and currency movements.” Does currency add uncertainty to portfolio outcomes? Although everyone seems to have an opinion on whether the Australian dollar is currently over or under valued, 80% of super funds recently surveyed believe noone is able to accurately predict the value of the currency over the next 12 months 4 . One thing that is agreed on - currency injects further uncertainty to global investments 5. The final portfolio outcome depends on the relative direction and size of the offshore asset and currency movements (Refer to Figure 1 which shows that these moves can be large and prolonged). There are generally four types of scenarios from an Australian investor’s perspective as illustrated in Figure 4. For simplicity, this illustration focuses on the AUD/USD currency pair and uses the U.S. stock market as the offshore asset: 1. If the USD appreciates (AUD depreciates), and the US equity market rises, the effect is a ‘double bonus’ as both the underlying equity investment and the value of the USD portfolio when translated back to AUD have increased. 2. If the USD depreciates (AUD appreciates), and the US equity market falls, the effect is a ‘double whammy’ as both the underlying equity investment and value of portfolio when translated back to AUD have decreased. 3. If the USD appreciates, but the US equity market falls, the net effect depends on the relative size of the movements. If the currency gains are larger (smaller) than the equity decline, the net impact is positive (negative). 4. If the USD depreciates, but the US equity market rises, the net effect depends on the relative size of the movements. If the equity gains are larger (smaller) than the currency loss, the net impact is positive (negative). Value of Foreign Currency Figure 4: Four scenarios for final portfolio outcomes UP DOWN DOWN UP Stock Market Return Hedging currency exposure can remove the impact of uncertain currency movements on global investments, leaving the underlying asset as the source of uncertainty on portfolio outcomes. 4 NAB FX Superannuation survey 2013 5 Especially when considering a volatile home currency. 3 June 2014 Managing currency exposure in Australian superannuation funds How has currency been managed historically? Foreign Currency Exposure (%) High Figure 5: Evolution in approach to currency management over time Consider hedging (Minimise regret) Even small exposures result in uncompensated risk. Low cost of hedging suggests beneficial to manage currency risk Do not hedge (Unnecessary) 15% Do not hedge Low “Even small (currency) exposures result in uncompensated risk.” (Not material) Short Evaluation horizon Long For illustrative purposes only Historically, the commonly used decision making framework for hedging or not has primarily focused on the investor’s time horizon and amount of foreign exposure: 6 We expect the amount of foreign exposure to continue to increase in future due to diversification and globalisation. The Australian share market accounts for only 2.9% of the global market (based on MSCI All Country World Index as at 28 February 2014). Further, we expect there will be an increasing need to invest offshore to keep up with the Australian superannuation industry’s growth. For example, the Australian share market is currently slightly smaller than the Australian superannuation industry ($1.5 trillion vs 1.8 trillion as at 28 February 2014 based on ASX and ASFA data), but superannuation assets are projected to grow at a much higher rate going forward relative to the domestic share market. 4 »» T ime horizon. As a general rule, the longer the investor’s time horizon, the less reason for hedging as it was argued that currency movements ‘wash out’ in the long run. Investors with shorter time horizons were encouraged to consider hedging to minimise regret, or the risk of being ‘wrong’ in hindsight. Based on this principle, investors commonly hedged 50% of their global equities allocations, because if the AUD depreciates, the regret is that investors should have been 0% hedged, while if the AUD appreciates, the regret would be that investors should have been 100% hedged. Thus a 50% strategic hedge ratio minimises the deviation from either extreme without the benefit of hindsight. »» A mount of foreign exposure 6. If the % exposure to foreign assets was small (e.g. below 15%), many investors did not hedge as the exposure was deemed immaterial, as shown In Figure 5. However, increasingly, even small exposures are now managed (passively or actively hedged), as investors recognise the potentially large impact of volatile currency movements especially in the short term; where investors are highly sensitive to peer risk and regret risk; and where, in a low return environment, potential additional return sources are in demand. June 2014 Managing currency exposure in Australian superannuation funds “What is the end goal of the investor? Are they seeking to achieve an absolute level of return, a return above inflation, or peer relative measures?” Is there an optimal recommended hedge ratio for all investors? Russell believes the appropriate hedge ratio for each investor depends on the investor’s specific circumstances: 1. Investor objectives. What is the end goal of the investor? Are they seeking to achieve an absolute level of return, a return above inflation, or peer relative measures? A more active currency management approach will help contribute to absolute return and inflation targets, while peer-sensitive objectives may be supported by a passive hedge closely tracking peer hedging levels. Do they have foreign currency liabilities (e.g. overseas holidays or other retirement plans involving offshore purchases)? 2. Time horizon. As discussed in the previous section, all else being equal, the shorter the investor’s time horizon, the more investors should consider hedging to manage the impact of potentially large and adverse currency movements on their portfolios. 3. Risk budget and tolerance. Can the investor tolerate a significant decrease in the value of their assets if currencies move adversely? Do they prefer to spend their risk budget on other fundamental return sources, e.g. equity risk premium, term, credit, illiquidity? 4.Liabilities. Which currency (or currencies) are the investor’s liabilities denominated in? If their liabilities are denominated primarily in Australian dollars, they may want to fully hedge all currency exposures in their asset portfolios to match the currency exposure for their assets and liabilities and vice versa (e.g. overseas travel and imports in retirement). 5. Investor beliefs. What are the investor’s beliefs about currency as a source of value-add and diversification? Do they believe the Australian dollar persistently outperforms the interest rate differential 7 ? 6. Peer risk and regret. How sensitive is the investor to peer risk? For example, competitive pressures on public offer super funds, where members compare short term results in league tables, may influence the hedge ratio decision and limit the deviation from the peer median. Similarly, what is the tolerance for regret risk from decision makers? 7 The Forward Rate Bias hypothesis expect currencies of higher yielding countries (AUD, NZD, MXN, BRL) to systematically experience less depreciation than the interest rate differential implies. See next section for details. 5 June 2014 Managing currency exposure in Australian superannuation funds “The implications .. is that the correlation patterns between currency and underlying asset markets assumed for other ‘defensive’ base currencies, e.g. USD do not necessarily apply from an Australian perspective.” What makes the Australian dollar different from other currencies? The Australian dollar (AUD) is a “risk on” play. Due to Australia’s historical reliance on mining and resources, the domestic currency has been highly correlated to commodity prices, emerging markets and global growth in general. Historically, the AUD has been susceptible to large shocks in the terms of trade due to volatility in global demand and prices of commodities (Australia’s exports). 30-40 year period to 31/3/2014 as shown in Figure 6. However, it isn’t clear whether this is episodic and time varying (due to where we are in the market cycle) or a permanent feature. The implications for portfolio management is that the correlation patterns between currency and underlying asset markets assumed for other ‘defensive’ base currencies, e.g. USD, do not necessarily apply from an Australian perspective. Furthermore, the AUD/USD currency pair tends to be a popular carry trade due to historical persistence of interest rate differentials. The potential future outperformance of the AUD due to the FRB may also cloud the hedging decision for an Australian investor. The Forward Rate Bias (FRB) hypothesis expects currencies of high yielding countries (e.g. AUD, NZD, MXN, BRL) to systematically experience less depreciation than interest rate differentials imply, i.e. outperform. In Australia, there is some empirical evidence of the FRB over the last Figure 6: AUD/USD outperformance (annualised forward rate bias) 3% Annualised Forward Rate Bias, AUD vs. USD 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: Datastream, Russell Investments 6 June 2014 Managing currency exposure in Australian superannuation funds “Russell believes that currency exposure should be considered at the total portfolio level, encompassing all global asset class exposures, including emerging markets, commodities and unlisted alternative investments...” Does hedging mean less risk? Figure 7: Five year rolling standard deviation (annualised): hedged vs unhedged 24% – Unhedged – Hedged 21% 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: Datastream From an AUD investor perspective hedging does not necessarily reduce risk. The answer is time and environment dependent. In the 1990s, unhedged global equities returns exhibited higher standard deviation than the equivalent hedged series, but this switched in the last two decades as shown in Figure 7. The net result is a function of the changing correlations between the currency and underlying equity market movement. For the last two decades, the AUD has primarily been a ‘risk on’ play. When global equities markets rallied, the AUD appreciated, decreasing the value of the global investment in AUD terms. Conversely, when global markets fell (‘risk off’), the AUD depreciated, increasing the value of the global investment in AUD terms. In both cases, the opposing direction of the currency and asset movements serves to dampen the volatility of unhedged returns when translated back to AUD, leading to the somewhat surprising result that the volatility of hedged returns can, in some cases, be higher than the volatility of unhedged returns. 7 The result also depends on what measure of risk is used. Is risk the simple sum of asset risk and currency risk? Is risk measured as portfolio standard deviation, peer relative or liability relative deviations? Is risk measured at the asset class level or at the total portfolio level? Russell believes that currency exposure should be considered at the total portfolio level, encompassing all global asset class exposures, including emerging markets, commodities and unlisted alternative investments, as well as traditional global equities and global fixed interest. Taking a holistic view of the currency exposure for the aggregate portfolio helps identify the net currency positions that the fund is exposed to (and allows for potential netting of currency transactions). June 2014 Managing currency exposure in Australian superannuation funds “The choice of approach depends on whether investors are primarily seeking to manage the uncertainty around currency exposures, use currency as a diversifier and additional source of return, or a combination of both.” How can investors manage the impact (and/or take advantage) of currency movements? There are a number of ways to manage the currency exposures in investment portfolios: 8 1. Appoint a currency overlay manager to implement a passive hedge ratio across your total overseas exposure 2. Actively adjusting the hedge ratio at pre defined market levels, e.g. using a disciplined strategic tilting process or delegating this to an overlay manager 3. Gain passive exposure to currency indices 9 4. Employ specialist active currency managers to add value over passive currency indices The choice of approach depends on whether investors are primarily seeking to manage the uncertainty around currency exposures (#1), or use currency as a diversifier and additional source of return (#3 & #4) or a combination of both (#2). These approaches can be implemented by: »» superannuation funds themselves if there are sufficient resources available to implement currency decisions; »» a third-party agency or manager can implement the currency exposures; or »» a provider, as part of a total outsourced solution. 8 In addition to simply using a defined split of hedged or un‑hedged share classes within a pooled fund structure. 9 Currency indices attempt to capture the systematic risk premiums (currency beta) potentially available in currency investing. The indices also enable investors to distinguish between the risk/return produced with and without active management insight (i.e. separate ‑alpha and beta). 8 June 2014 Managing currency exposure in Australian superannuation funds Case study of active currency management In Russell’s experience, currency movements can be rapid, volatile and large; currencies tend to follow trends for long periods of time, only to change course without much warning. This is why Russell follows a disciplined and rigorous process to identify unsustainable market extremes – determining candidates for tilting, as well as assessing the triggers for entering/exiting a position. We have actively managed the currency exposures in Russell’s multi-asset funds in Australia since 2008, by dynamically adjusting (or tilting) the hedge ratio, with 50% being the default strategic position. Figure 8 shows how the currency exposure has been actively managed over time in the last 12 months for the Russell Pooled Superannuation Trust – Balanced Opportunities Option, based on Russell’s portfolio manager insights and strategist views. Factors contributing to our active currency management include: »» speculation and official announcements surrounding the Fed tapering; »» the Reserve Bank of Australia’s stance on interest rates and the state of the local economy; »» market sentiment; »» outlook for carry trades. Actively managing the portfolio’s currency exposure added 1.4% to excess returns during the calendar year 2013 (on a gross basis). Figure 8: Example of active currency exposures over time Hedge Ratio AUD/USD Spot 1.06 90% 1.04 80% 1.02 70% 1.00 60% 0.98 50% 0.96 40% 0.94 30% 0.92 20% 0.90 10% 0.88 0% 0.86 5 Apr 13 12 Apr 13 19 Apr 13 26 Apr 13 3 May 13 10 May 13 17 May 13 24 May 13 31 May 13 7 Jun 13 14 Jun 13 21 Jun 13 28 Jun 13 5 Jul 13 12 Jul 13 19 Jul 13 26 Jul 13 2 Aug 13 9 Aug 13 16 Aug 13 23 Aug 13 30 Aug 13 6 Sep 13 13 Sep 13 20 Sep 13 27 Sep 13 4 Oct 13 11 Oct 13 18 Oct 13 25 Oct 13 1 Nov 13 8 Nov 13 15 Nov 13 22 Nov 13 29 Nov 13 6 Dec 13 13 Dec 13 20 Dec 13 27 Dec 13 3 Jan 14 10 Jan 14 17 Jan 14 24 Jan 14 31 Jan 14 6 Feb 14 14 Feb 14 21 Feb 14 28 Feb 14 100% Unhedged Hedged AUD/USD Spot Price For illustrative purposes only - Russell Pooled Superannuation Trust – Russell Balanced Opportunities Option 9 June 2014 Managing currency exposure in Australian superannuation funds “In relative terms, there is a larger range of costs incurred for currency transactions than many other investment activities...” Why care about currency implementation? Once the hedge ratio is defined, and a tilting governance structure is established (where applicable), the currency exposure needs to be actually implemented, e.g. an agency or third-party manager needs to be instructed to buy and sell the appropriate equity futures and manage this exposure going forward. This can be implemented through a hedged commingled fund or a currency hedging overlay program, which encompasses all overseas exposures in one portfolio rather than each asset class individually. Based on Russell’s experience in transacting currency, the following data illustrates further how foreign exchange costs can vary widely across providers: »» Inattention to FX transactions can be costly, with the difference between providers ranging by over 20 basis points of the portfolio value. »» Russell’s FX trading service can reduce those costs, sometimes by more than 75%, through netting and matching, and select counterparty trading Figure 9 compares the relative costs of different investment activities, as well as demonstrating the range of different outcomes from different providers. Foreign exchange can have a significant impact on the overall costs for an investment portfolio. In relative terms, there is a larger range of costs incurred for currency transactions than many other investment activities (after equity trading). »» The average manager / fund paid 9.7 basis ponits in trading costs from 20092012. Russell’s costs were 90% lower than the average. Figure 9: Comparison of different costs for different investment activities n 25% of funds with lowest charges n Median of all funds n 25% of funds with highest charges 122.1 43.9 26.6 10.5 Investment management 32.0 18.5 10.9 36.7 5.7 Administration 4.3 Equity trading 14.4 1.8 Foreign exchange 3.2 1.5 0.5 Custody Source: John Authers, “The Pension Gap”, Financial Times, page 7, 28 May 2103. 10 June 2014 Managing currency exposure in Australian superannuation funds “... it is important to ensure that the manager or institution conducting foreign exchange trades... is the best agent to conduct the role...” What are the risks in implementing currency exposures? In addition to costs, there are risks involved in implementing currency exposures and transactions which also need to be managed: »» Operational risk Trading processes without transparency and oversight can incur human errors, leading to misunderstandings and miscalculations. »» Counterparty and settlement risk Trading counterparties might not be able to fulfil their obligations after a trade is made. Furthermore, headline risk means negative news about a counterparty can rapidly affect other parties’ willingness to trade. »» Avoid fraud and unnecessary expenses Recent negative publicity has increased awareness and transparency on implementation issues such as fixing, collusion, manipulation and high charges. Russell believes industry best practice to manage these risks is achieved through: »» Transparency and accountability in trading and reporting Every trade is timestamped to track information on each trade. There is full disclosure/fully visible commission on services after netting transactions. »» Improved governance helps prevent counterparty and settlement risks This includes having a strong, independent credit team to review, approve and monitor all counterparties; centralised trading; consideration of multiple counterparties to ensure bids are competitive; reducing the operational workload and risks associated with FX trade settlement (e.g. using Continuous Linked Settlement – the industry program for eliminating settlement risks in FX transactions). »» T he agency model Acting as agent rather than principal helps ensure interests are always aligned with the client’s and the agent is incentivised to find the best execution/ terms for every FX trade. This helps achieve lower currency transaction costs and more holistic risk oversight. It is important to ensure that the manager or institution conducting foreign exchange trades on your behalf is the best agent to conduct the role, in the same way a “best of breed” equities manager is selected. CONCLUSION Investing globally incurs currency risk. Russell believes currency exposures need to be managed at the total portfolio level. Russell recommends investors first determine the most appropriate long-term strategic currency approach, and then consider active management to take advantage of opportunities and manage risks as they emerge. Finally, investors should implement currency exposures carefully to avoid cost leakage. 11 June 2014 Managing currency exposure in Australian superannuation funds Russell Investments At Russell Investments, we believe all investors require a rate of return – at a level of risk they can accept and commit to for the long term. We’re a global asset manager with a unique set of capabilities essential to managing your total portfolio and to meeting your desired outcome. We integrate these capabilities to give all our clients what we believe is the highest probability of reaching their goals. Capital Markets Insights Our capital markets insights help determine the exposures your portfolio needs to best achieve your goals. Portfolio Construction We believe you need world-class capabilities in strategic asset allocation. Manager Research & Indexes We achieve those exposures through best-of-breed active managers and customised smart beta or passive exposures. CAPITAL MARKETS INSIGHTS MANAGER RESEARCH INDEXES PORTFOLIO IMPLEMENTATION PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION Portfolio Implementation To keep your portfolio on track requires a purpose-built, trading capability in which the broker’s objectives are aligned with yours. Russell has traded more $500 billion in currency transactions in 2013. Russell has been recognized by aiCIO as a leader in foreign exchange, winning the 2011 Industry innovation award winner – Foreign Exchange.10 Russell helps clients manage foreign exchange trading costs and risks in international portfolios by: »» Executing foreign exchange trades as a pure agent, not a principal, providing transparent execution »» Developing strategies to hedge currency risk through passive currency overlays & FX exposure management For more information, please contact: Dan Birch Senior Business Development Manager Russell Investments +61 2 9229 5170 dbirch@russell.com »» Analysing foreign exchange trades to assess costs and identify effective solutions. Russell’s transactions cost analysis can recommend more stream-lined, straight forward solutions to reduce costs and risks. 10 No awards were given out in 2012 or 2013. Issued by Russell Investment Management Ltd ABN 53 068 338 974, AFS Licence 247185. This document provides general information for wholesale investors only and has not been prepared having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making an investment decision, you need to consider whether this information is appropriate to your objectives, financial situation and needs. This information has been compiled from sources considered to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Returns are gross of fees and expenses. Any potential investor should consider the latest Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) in deciding whether to acquire, or to continue to hold, an investment in any Russell product. The PDS can be obtained by visiting www.russell.com.au or by phoning (02) 9229 5111. RIM is part of Russell Investments (Russell). 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