2. FIRM BOUNDARIES Firm boundaries Boundaries? Horizontal boundaries: What is the size of the firm (in relation to the market)? (scale of the firm) In which markets does the firm operate? (scope of the firm) Vertical boundaries Which steps of the “vertical chain” take place within the firm? Firm boundaries Why do we care about boundaries? Firm strategy: Fundamental strategic question for firms So-called corporate strategy = setting firm boundaries Just last week, news about boundary changes: Motorola announced it is going to spin off mobile division Take-Two Interactive Software (makers of Grand Theft Auto) told shareholders to reject a $2 billion hostile bid from rival video game publisher, Electronic Arts. Firm boundaries Why do we care about boundaries? Anti-trust (regulation): Boundaries may determine market power Are large firms desirable or a threat to competition? When is vertical integration a good thing? When a threat to competition? Explanation: Why observed differences? 2.1. Horizontal boundaries Reference: Besanko et al, ch. 2 Horizontal boundaries. Intro. Horizontal boundaries: What is the size of the firm (in relation to the market)? (scale of the firm) In which markets does the firm operate? (scope of the firm) Horizontal boundaries. Intro Scale Commercial aviation sector: AIRBUS BOEING Others may want to enter (China) … Microprocessors: Intel AMD Horizontal boundaries. Intro. Scale Market for operating systems for personal computers: Windows MacOS Linux .. Market for operating systems for servers: Windows Unix Linux Horizontal boundaries. Intro. Scale Banking: In Spain, 4 largest “banks” (SCH, BBVA, Caixa, Caja Madrid) have large share of the market But medium-sized banks (Popular, Pastor) compete successfully Horizontal boundaries. Intro. Horizontal boundaries. Intro. Aluminium Highly concentrated industry worldwide Trend towards consolidation: Rio Tinto – Alcan UC Rusal BHP – Rio Tinto ??? Horizontal boundaries. Intro. Some of the least concentrated sectors in Spain (4 largest firms have a total share of less than 5% of mkt, 1996-1999) Hotels and restaurants Real state Construction Furniture manufacturing Horizontal boundaries. Intro. What do these products have in common? They are all produced by the same firm: UNILEVER http://www.unilever.com/ourbrands/ Horizontal boundaries. Intro. Procter & Gamble: http://www.pg.com/common/product_sitemap.jhtml ... almost any consumption good can be purchased from one of these two firms General Electric: http://www.ge.com/ Commercial Finance, Healthcare, Industrial, Infrastructure, Money, NBC Universal Horizontal boundaries. Intro. GENERAL ELECTRIC: Horizontal boundaries. Intro. Financial system: Some banks (“universal” banks) offer all kinds of financial services: commercial banking, investment banking, asset management, insurance,... Other financial firms are more focused (investment banking (Goldman Sachs), brokerage (E-trade, but now more diversified)) Yet others focus on small niches (consumption loans, mortgage origination,...) Horizontal boundaries. Intro. Why in some sectors a few firms serve most of the market? Why in other sector, all firms are small in relation to the market? How can firms of different scales coexist? Why do some firms focus on a narrowly defined business while others operate in many different markets? Horizontal boundaries Horizontal boundaries Economies of scale and scope Economies of scale defined Economies of scope defined Sources of economies of scale and scope Diseconomies of scale The learning curve Network externalities Diversification Horizontal boundaries Horizontal boundaries Economies of scale and scope Economies of scale defined Economies of scope defined Sources of economies of scale and scope Diseconomies of scale The learning curve Network externalities Diversification Economies of scale defined There are economies of scale (for a certain range of output levels) if: the average cost (cost per unit) falls when output increases (within that range) Economies of scale defined Equivalent definition: there are economies of scale if the marginal cost is lower than the average cost Example: Software. The marginal cost of an extra CD is negligible, while there are large fixed investments associated with software development. Range with economies of scale CMe = average cost CM= marginal cost Economies of scale defined Typical average cost curve: U-shaped average cost curve Substantial fixed costs High average costs for low volumes Average cost declines as fixed costs are spread over larger volumes Average cost eventually start increasing as capacity constraints, bottlenecks kick in Unique optimum size for a firm (efficient size or scale) Economies of scale defined Typical average cost curve: Lshaped average cost curve Cost curves may often be closer to L-shaped curves that to U-shaped curves Any size above Minimum Efficient Size (MES) is efficient Horizontal boundaries. Horizontal boundaries Economies of scale and scope Economies of scale defined Economies of scope defined Sources of economies of scale and scope Diseconomies of scale The learning curve Network externalities Diversification Economies of scope defined Firm 1 produces two products: A and B Firm 2 produces A only If the cost of producing A is smaller for Firm 1 than Firm 2, there are economies of scope More formally: TC(QA, QB) < TC(QA, 0) + TC(0, QB) Economies of scope defined Previous definition in terms of total costs We could also define economies of scale in terms of marginal (or incremental costs): production of B reduces the incremental cost of producing A if TC(QA, QB) – TC(0,QB) < TC(QA, 0) – TC(0, 0) If TC(0, 0)=0, this expression is just the same we had before TC(QA, QB) – TC(0,QB) < TC(QA, 0) TC(QA, QB) < TC(QA, 0) + TC(0, QB) Economies of scope defined Example. Citigroup: Citigroup: result of the merger in 1998 of Citicorp and Travelers Group. Combines commercial banking, investment banking, insurance (for first time since such combination was allowed in the US) Motivation for merger: “one-stop shopping” Æ offer wide range of products and services to costumers in the same place Possible advantages: Much more convenient shopping experience for costumers (reduction of the cost of providing a convenient experience) Cost reductions: cost of maintaining customer relationships could be spread over more products. Enron ? Horizontal boundaries. Horizontal boundaries Economies of scale and scope Economies of scale defined Economies of scope defined Sources of economies of scale and scope Diseconomies of scale The learning curve Network externalities Diversification Horizontal boundaries. Economies of scale and scope Managers may cite economies of scale and scope (even when they do not exist!) to justify investment in growth, mergers or acquisitions, entry into new markets Some times they use “cooler” buzzwords: “Leveraging core competences” “Competing on capabilities” “Mobilizing invisible assets” Diversification into related products These statements should be taken with a grain of salt: where do the proposed economies of scale and scope come from? Sources of economies of scale and scope Production-related Fixed costs Inventories Other Purchasing Advertising R&D Production-related economies of scale Fixed costs Some production processes require a minimum scale to be feasible: cannot be scaled down beyond a threshold If a production process cannot be scaled down at will (indivisibilities), fixed costs emerge Simple examples: A car shop requires a minimum space to store and work on cars, storage space for parts, ... A courier service needs vans. A minimum number of vans is required to cover a certain area. Production-related economies of scale Classic examples: Overhead: rental costs, minimum administrative staff. Physical capital investment: Often, more capital intensive processes involve higher fixed costs Machinery often has a minimum feasible size In the short run, physical capital (buildings, machinery) cannot be scaled down (this is how economists define the short run...) Production-related economies of scale So far: cost reduction through better capacity utilization (short run or static economies of scale) Cost reduction by switching to high fixed cost technology (long run or dynamic economies of scale) •Switching to a more capitalintensive (higher fixed costs) technology can reduce avg. costs economies of scale due to technology change •Below a certain output level: not optimal to switch technology •The “lower envelope” of the two cost curves is the long run average cost curve economies of scale due to better capacity utilization Average costs of two technologies Production-related economies of scale Economies of scale due to specialization: Specialization implies learning costs A large chunk of learning costs are fixed “The division of labor is limited to the extent of the market” (A. Smith): small scale may make specialization unprofitable As markets increase in size, specialization becomes possible Æ specialization increases fixed costs, reduces marginal costs Production-related economies of scale Economies of scale due to inventory management Why do firms carry inventory? Firms carry inventory to avoid (reduce probability) stock outs In addition to lost sales, stock outs can adversely affect customer loyalty Bigger firms can generally afford to keep smaller inventories (relative to sales volume) compared with smaller firms As scale increases, the amount of inventories required to keep a certain probability of stock out usually increases less than proportionally Production-related economies of scale Example Two car repair shops need spare parts to operate For each shop the expected number of parts per month is 2,000 With an inventory of 5,000 parts: 5% probability of stock out. What is the probability that both shops run out of parts if each one stores 5,000 parts (assume independence)? p=.05*.05=.0025 ó 0.25% ÆIf the two shops merge: with same total inventory (5000+5000) probability of stock out is lower Alternatively, 5% probability can be maintained with a lower total number of parts (e.g., around 8,000) Sorry for the initial typo Production-related economies of scale The inventory model applies clearly to aircraft, road vehicles A larger bus company can keep a smaller number of “spare buses” (relative to size of operations) and still provide reliable service, whereas smaller companies need (proportionately) larger number of spares Other sources of economies of scale and scope So far: production-related economies of scale Other sources of economies of scale: economies of scale in purchasing economies of scale in advertising economies of scale in R&D Economies of scale in purchasing Large buyers often get volume discounts. Why? Reduced transaction costs per unit (transportation, contracting, servicing...) Greater bargaining power of large buyers Large buyers can disrupt operations of the seller by refusing to buy If they buy, assured flow of business for the supplier Economies of scale in purchasing Example: Group insurance typically cheaper than individual insurance But there are alternatives to bigness: Small firms can join purchasing alliances Example (March, 2007): Shareholders in Caremark, an American drugs middleman-cum-wholesaler, agreed on a merger with CVS, an American drugstore chain. Caremark operates in the “pharmacy benefit management” (PBM) sector, in which big intermediary firms use their purchasing power to secure discounts on drugs for corporate clients. Thomas Ryan, boss of CVS justifies the merger in terms of the logic phrases like “purchasing leverage”. He calculates that 90% of his deal's synergies comes from the merged firm's ability to negotiate lower prices from drugs firms. Becoming bigger may help match the increasing power of your customers. Other sources of economies of scale and scope So far: production-related economies of scale Other sources of economies of scale: economies of scale in purchasing economies of scale in advertising economies of scale in R&D Economies of scale and scope in advertising What is the cost per costumer of advertising? Total advertising costs Cost per potential customer # of potential costumers Total advertising costs # of costumers result of advertising = # of costumers result of advertising # of potential costumers Proportion of potential customers who become actual customers (effectiveness) Economies of scale and scope in advertising Cost per potential customer: Large national firms may experience lower cost per potential customer when compared with small regional firms Cost of production per potential costumer may be lower if there are fixed costs Costs of negotiations with the media can be spread over different markets (plus better bargaining power) Effectiveness Large firms may have better reach than small firms Æ can convert larger proportion of potential customers into actual customers Ex. effectiveness of advertising by Starbucks/Juan Valdés? Economies of scale and scope in advertising Economies of scope in advertising Effectiveness of advertising greater when same firm sells different products: advertising of one product also advertises the brand, advertising the brand serves all products Umbrella branding: several products sold under the umbrella of the same brand Advertising of Sony TVs may increase sales of DVD players Economies of scale and scope in R&D Economies of scale in R&D: Minimum feasible size for R&D projects and R&D departments (recall Airbus) Economies of scope in R&D: Economies of scope in R&D; ideas from one project can help another project It is more likely that a given idea will find an application if different products to which it can be applied Are larger firms better at innovating? No clear answer, we’ll get back to this. Diseconomies of scale Economies of scale and scope: “bigger is better” Larger volume Larger quantity of products/markets Limits to economies of scale and scope: diseconomies of scale and scope Where do they come from? Diseconomies of scale Coordination and incentives Difficulties in monitoring and communication with workers Coordination complexity Difficulties in evaluating and rewarding individual performance Æ incentives may suffer (we’ll deal with these issues in part 3) “Bureaucracy effect”: detailed work rules may stifle workers’ creativity Diseconomies of scale Non-replicable critical resources: A firm’s success may depend on its use of some scarce resources As firm expands, certain resources may be limited in availability desirable locations (hotels, restaurants) specialized workers (sales personnel who can speak Chinese) talented workers (managers, engineers, designers) Example: Ferran Adriá. Is it a good idea to expand to: Catering Fast food Advising of other restaurants Potato chips? Diseconomies of scale Larger input costs: If a firm becomes a monopsonist (single buyer), increases in demand of input increase price Labor costs: evidence Æ workers in large firms paid more than in small firms Why? Unionization Work may be more enjoyable in small firms Large firms may have to attract workers from far away places … but large firms lower worker turnover compared to small firms Æ savings in recruitment and training costs Diseconomies of scale “Conflicting Out” in professional services Professional services firms may find it difficult to sign up a client if a competitor is already a client of the firm Would you like your consultant/lawyer to advise/represent your main competitor? Would you want your investment adviser to be a firm that sells investment products? Diseconomies of scale/scope Limitations of umbrella branding Conflicting brand images may cause diseconomies of scope Example: Lexus separate brand from Toyota AOL-Time Warner AOL and Time Warner announced their merger in 2000 AOL: in 2000, largest Internet provider with its own portal Time Warner: 2º cable TV operator in the US Publisher of influential media (Time) Owner of large movie studios… AOL-Time Warner Merger expected to be very profitable: Same content can be used in different media: traditional + internet Cross promotion Technology convergence Transfer of “know-how” As we’ll see, the merger also had an important vertical dimension ... But outcome was not as expected Today, “traditional” business (especially, cable) have regained their primacy Proposals to spin off AOL Horizontal boundaries Horizontal boundaries Economies of scale and scope Economies of scale defined Economies of scope defined Sources of economies of scale and scope Diseconomies of scale The learning curve Network externalities Diversification The learning curve Economies of scale and scope: benefits from large scale at a moment in time (even in the case of long-run economies of scale) The learning curve: relates average costs to cumulative output (accumulated over time) produced It measures the impact of the knowledge and experience acquired over time through the production process itself The learning curve AC AC1 AC2 Q Q 2Q Q= cumulative output The learning curve Slope of the learning curve: rate at which average cost changes as cumulative output increases. We expect the slope to be negative: ACÈ as cum. output Ç Often, we expect the learning curve to be convex: marginal impact of learning tends to become smaller as cum. output Ç Recall: function convex if the slope is increasing (if negative slope, increasing slope = flatter curve) The learning curve Strategic consequences: Expand output rapidly to benefit from the learning curve and achieve a cost advantage May lead to losses in the short term but ensure long term profitability Potential problem: if managers rewarded as a function of today’s profits Æ may not be interested in this strategy (pays in the long run) The learning curve Economies of scale and learning economies: Economies of scale and no learning economies. Ex.: simple yet capital intensive technologies Learning economies and no economies of scale. Ex: professional services (lawyers, investment analysts,...) Horizontal boundaries Horizontal boundaries Economies of scale and scope Economies of scale defined Economies of scope defined Sources of economies of scale and scope Diseconomies of scale The learning curve Network externalities Diversification VHS against Betamax Producción anual: VHS vs Beta 50000 Producción anual en 1000s de unidade 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 Año 1984 1986 1988 1990 VHS against Betamax 1956: Ampex produces the first VCR 1960s: Ampex monopoly Market for VCRs: TV stations (not consumers) 1970s: Research to produce VCRs “for the masses” Ampex, RCA, Matsushita, Toshiba, Sanyo, Philips: all failed 1971: Sony introduces U-matic: large and expensive VHS against Betamax 1975-6: Sony (Betamax), JVC (VHS) and Philips (V2000) develop commercially viable technologies 1977-8: Betamax and VHS compete for supremacy 1981: VHS sales double those of Betamax 1985: Ratio of sales 1 / 10. 1988: Sony stops producing Betamax Could a software company be interested in promoting the pirating of one of its products? Network externalities Network externalities: the value for a consumer of a good/service increases with the number of consumers who purchase the good/service Examples? Network externalities Direct network externalities: the value increases with the number of users Ex.: phone, fax, e-mail, “social networking” websites (MySpace, Facebook),... Often, use of the service takes place within an actual network Network externalities Indirect network externalities: Complementary products/services: value of a good increases with number of users because more users Æ greater availability of complementary goods/services Externalities not directly associated with actual networks (that link consumers) but to “virtual networks” Ex.: computer operating system and application software Ex.: HD DVD / Blu-ray Network externalities and standards Network externalities often evolve around standards What’s a standard?: series of uniform technical specifications One of main goals of standards: guarantee fit/communication between different devices Examples: Trains and tracks Operating systems and software applications Videogames and consoles TCP Network externalities and standards Network externalities often based on standards: Regulate actual networks (internet, telephone) The connection regulated by the network generates indirect network externalities: B B A B B Ex. consumers want to be able to combine good A with complementary good B. The availability of a standard (Windows) to regulate the A-B connection may facilitate the emergence of different B’s (software applications) to be used with A (a PC). Network externalities and horizontal boundaries Network externalities: May lead to market concentration May lead to infrequent yet large changes in market shares Probability of choosing A A’s market share Horizontal boundaries Horizontal boundaries Economies of scale and scope Economies of scale defined Economies of scope defined Sources of economies of scale and scope Diseconomies of scale The learning curve Network externalities Diversification Diversification Firms often serve multiple product markets Related/ unrelated markets: two markets are related if they share technological characteristics, production characteristics and/or distribution channels Diversification Single business firm: derives more than 95% percent of revenues from single activity Dominant business firm: 70-95% of revenues from principal activity Related business firm: less than 70% of revenues from primary activity, but other lines of business related to primary one Unrelated business firm or conglomerate: less than 70% of revenue from primary area and has few activities related to primary area Diversification Type Single Dominant Related Conglomerate Proportion of Revenue from Primary Activity > 95 percent 70 to 95 percent < 70 percent <70 percent Examples KLM, DeBeers N. Y. Times, 3M Philip Morris GE, Virgin Diversification Economies of scope may explain expansion to related businesses Why do firms expand to unrelated business? We’ll use the term diversification to refer to expansion to unrelated businesses (some times, people talk of diversification into related/unrelated businesses) Diversification Why diversification? Economies of scope Internal capital markets Shareholder’s risk diversification Identification of undervalued firms Market power Managers’ interests Diversification Why diversification? Economies of scope Internal capital markets Shareholder’s risk diversification Market power Managers’ interests Diversification Economies of scope Economies of scope in unrelated markets??? Different product characteristics Different production technology Different distribution channel There could be scope economies in other dimensions Diversification Economies of scope Organizational resources: organizational characteristics (hiring criteria, communication channels, hierarchical organization,...) may themselves be a resource that makes it less costly to compete in other markets Competences not associated to a particular market: innovativeness, marketing abilities, costumer service, inventory management General management abilities: innovation, financing, M&A Diversification Problem: These resources are difficult to measure/evaluate Æ difficult to determine whether they are really there Diversification Why diversification? Economies of scope Internal capital markets Shareholder’s risk diversification Market power Managers’ interests Diversification Idea: 2 firms A: large pockets, lack of projects B: no financing, but good projects Merging A and B: A can provide necessary financing for B’s projects (internal capital market) Diversification But, if B has profitable projects, why can’t it obtain financing in the market (debt, equity)? Capital market imperfections (ex. informational asymmetries) Some skepticism always warranted Other problems: “influence” costs, control problems Example: oil industry Oil firms who produce in unrelated sectors: Investment in those sectors highly related to oil prices If internal capital markets worked well, that would not happen Diversification Why diversification? Economies of scope Internal capital markets Shareholder’s risk diversification Market power Managers’ interests Diversification Idea: Operating in unrelated markets Æ diversification Æ reduces risk faced by shareholders Problem: Can’t shareholders diversify better by themselves? This is a strong criticism Possible favorable case: Large shareholders: cannot easily diversify Diversification Why diversification? Economies of scope Internal capital markets Shareholder’s risk diversification Market power Managers’ interests Diversification “Predatory” pricing: Cross-subsidization allows some divisions to set predatory (below marginal cost) prices Diversification Why diversification? Economies of scope Internal capital markets Shareholder’s risk diversification Market power Managers’ interests Diversification Growth may benefit managers even when it does not add value for shareholders: Larger salaries Greater prestige/career concerns When growth cannot be achieved through internal development Æ diversification attractive alternative If there are obstacles to related mergers (ex. anti-trust) Æ unrelated Diversification Other benefits for managers of unrelated mergers: Reduce probability of being fired: diversification reduces risk Create room for career moves Entrenchment: firm specific skills